Mini 862 ~ Mafia of Order (Game Over!)

[Kmd4390]

@KMD
I expected Shinion: Town Sniper. I smell fake claim.

Outguessing the Mod is bad, especially this Mod. Also, what made you think we'd have a "sniper" (vig?) when there's only been one kill each night?

1. In the example you gave us, you showed us that when you used VC analysis initially you were killing VTs. Then you had to adjust your case with the too townie argument to actually find scum. Aka. More other forms of analysis + VC = strong argument. This is off topic now. The fallacy comes from tunnel warfare here.

Um, no. I never used any too townie argument.

No, it's not "just the way he claimed it". It very clearly has information that is not included in a town PM. Again, for your ease of reference:

Town PM looks like this format: Player Name, TOWNIE (TITLE) (ROLE)

LL claimed: Player Name, right hand of something something

Those are not even close, nor is it simply the correct information that was put in the wrong order. It is DIFFERENT information to that of the town PM. LL has not struck me as someone who even knows the flavor in this game, so I am quite certain he had to look at his role PM before claiming. You can keep making all kinds of excuses if you'd like, but the evidence is right there for anyone to see.

So you think the scum PM is formatted differently than town or.. what? I'm not seeing the argument. PM structure is a bad arument anyway.

The problem with your VC analysis is that the data presented does not lead to the conclusions you proposed. You also make a lot of excuses in it for players with shady votes. I'll hopefully have the time to do one myself today and put something proper up.

There are no excuses. Just noticing logical thought processes. I'm interested in seeing what you come up with though.

As far as distancing goes, yeah I would surely come off of the leading wagon at that time three days from deadline with a comprehensive case on my buddy that actually got significant support. That's a pretty well thought out theory you have there.

*Shrug*. I've done similar things in the past.

[Locke Lamora]

I'm working on an analysis of each player but in the meantime, I'm interested in hearing about a few things:

KMD: why the insistence on defending me? Can you clarify exactly why my Saber and Cobalt votes were good?

VP: any thoughts on why you are still alive? Are you still convinced Goat is town?

Saber: if there is a third party, got any thoughts on who it is?

[VP Baltar]

So you think the scum PM is formatted differently than town or.. what? I'm not seeing the argument. PM structure is a bad arument anyway.

Yeah, somehow I think the scum PMs do not contain the word Townie in them. Just a guess on my part I suppose. LL has just stated that he had to check his PM when he claimed. Which brings me to my next question:

LL, why would you only claim your name and not the whole bolded portion? What is COAT? Cop of all trades?

Here is how I am looking at things right now, other than Goat, who still needs to claim, we have had the following powerroles confirmed:

3. Debonair Danny DiPietro - Bastian, Townie Liaison (Neighborizer) - Lynched Day 1...
7. Juls - Tanith, Townie Guardian (Permanent and Total Protector) - Killed Night 1...
2. Cobalt - Micaiah, Townie Priestess (Sacrificer) - Lynched Day 2...

Kmd, fuzzy and LL all claim to have PRs as well. Now, pardon me for being suspicious, but we have not heard of anything all that substantial from scum in terms of night actions for me to believe that the town started this game with SIX powerroles out of nine slots (given three scum). Cobalt claimed to have been roleblocked (why hasn't LL been blocked if he's not dead? I don't see who else the scum have to spend their roleblock on) and Kmd's posts disappeared. Those are the only two night actions I have seen impact the town thus far, so at least one, if not two of these folks is lying. Also, remember that Goat claims there are three fakeclaims floating about. Cobalt had one. That means if there is a three person scum team out there, one person did not have the luxury of a fake claim (LL).

I am anxious to see some actual content from LL, because right now the evidence continues to mount against him.

Goat, I really need to see something from you significant. Your play has been town, but the more I say that aloud, the less you are participating. Bring me comfort.

Preview edit:
@LL-The only reason I think I am still alive is that I am at least somewhat on target with my suspicions and killing me would help confirm that. I will be the first to admit that the kill choices have been odd this game. re: Goat, see above. Mostly I do, but every day he is alive does worry me.

[DTMaster]

@KMD

1. I read some of Vi's other games so I see why you don't want to outguess the mod. Plus Cobalt's flip means he gave town fake claiming powers, something that I only exclusively saw for 3rd parties and scum.

2. I expected Town Sniper (Townie/PR because Shinon is an archer. He's not some civilian in the game.

3. Yes. You reevulated your town reads and caught scum that way. Aka they were townie in your books. The scum players were townie. There fore your town reads were too townie and are actually scum. Unless I'm reading that argument wrongly it appears that way to me.

@LL
1. I still don't get the point. If scum fake claims, you are supposed to catch them on this. You are supposed to verify their roles/flavours. Before or after the fact, it doesn't matter. In fact if your role mechanics are correct scum cannot fake claim at all if you investigate them (same conclusion as you).

In hypo if you claimed your investigation early and scum knew the format. Then they fake claimed their role (ie instead of Mafia XXX say they are Town YYY) you investigate if the person was YYY. You should get XXX as a result. Why are you so worried about fake claims here? From my understanding your role counters all fake claims created.

Therefore it shouldn't matter if scum fake claims because you would catch him

2. Yes the point was: if you already caught scum then reveal it. I don't see the point of MCing if your result could lead towards a scum lynch. In fact if you revealed a guilty pre-MC and caught scum, we wouldn't be in potential lylo right now and we would have kept 2 PR claims underwrapped. You also full ability claimed before the MC so town-you was already be out and about.

So your question on why you shouldn't have claimed a guilty result pre-mass claim is obvious: why bother with a MC if you caught scum. We could lynch the person.

3. What was your N1 result and and why didn't you say it in the full claim?

@VP
1. Flavourwise I don't know what COAT stands for. LL's background story fits but a name would help me piece it together. I played Radiant Dawn and unless it didn't show up there, I can't help. :< (aka I didn't play the first one)

2. Uh unless Cobalt is an anti-miller then I don't see why he would lie about his blockage. We also know that Fuzzy's claim is ability verified too. KMD's claim gives me the heebies and I'm waiting for an LL analysis before I make my decision.

[Vi]

Then do not trouble your mind with politics. Let the nobles worry about their games. We should focus on this war.

Vote Count:

Locke Lamora (L-4) ~

saberwolf

Not Voting:

saberwolf,

DTMaster, fuzzylightning, Goatrevolt, Kmd4390, Locke Lamora, VP Baltar, saberwolf

--With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
--Deadline is Saturday, November 14 2009.

(6 days left)

Post Count:

saberwolf - 40
DTMaster - 22
fuzzylightning - 19
Goatrevolt - 36
Kmd4390 - 49
Locke Lamora - 16
VP Baltar - 54

People in danger of an inactivity modkill:

fuzzylightning
Goatrevolt

[VP Baltar]

Kmd, why did you say this after your D1 posts were erased:

Anyone who knows anything about this needs to speak up. I'm interested to see how many posts the Mod says I've used in the next vote count.

When you know you have infinite posts? What would it matter how many posts the vote count says you used?

3. What was your N1 result and and why didn't you say it in the full claim?

LL claimed his N1 result in his initial claim. I think it was on Cobalt or something like that.

1. Flavourwise I don't know what COAT stands for. LL's background story fits but a name would help me piece it together. I played Radiant Dawn and unless it didn't show up there, I can't help. :< (aka I didn't play the first one)

I don't think it's anything from the game. I think it stands for cop of all trades. But on a sidenote, worry less about the flavor of the game. I don't think we are going to catch scum that way. Look at behaviors and scum motivations.

2. Uh unless Cobalt is an anti-miller then I don't see why he would lie about his blockage. We also know that Fuzzy's claim is ability verified too. KMD's claim gives me the heebies and I'm waiting for an LL analysis before I make my decision.

I'm not saying Cobalt lied about being blocked. I'm saying he WAS blocked and I don't see why the scum would not block a claimed cop (LL) if they were deciding not to kill him. There doesn't seem to be anyone else out there to block, so why would they intentionally not use their night action?

As far as fuzzy goes, his alignment is not verified. He probably does give out posts when he's alive, but that doesn't make him town.

Goat, you going to play this game?

LL, still waiting. Still want you lynched.

Saber, do you have anything to contribute? Any new ideas you've had or things you'd like to talk about?

[saberwolf]

I would like to mention that LL claimed to have used his first ability on me night 1, to verify that I did indeed start off with 50 posts.

I have nothing else to add yet though, as I am still searching through the posts for anything that may be of help.

[DTMaster]

@VP
1. Ah thanks. I forgot about that with LL's first soft claim. Also I realized LL did claim his name. I'm getting all the claims mixed up here. I'm making a claim chart to sort things out.

2. The block issue is: I have no idea. You can role speculate and go: 1-shot RB like how LL claimed 1-shot insight abilities. You can also accuse him as scum. Either way it's too Wifomy for my tastes.

3. Oh sorry I missed some questions. I think you missed this too. Anyways: Yes my main issue was the end of the day play. Largely your posts were doing the most legwork. I sympathize because I was in a position with Sabre being in the same boat (ie but slightly reversed since he's usually the first lynch).

My thoughts on LL, I still don't get his full reasoning. Especially since he's stressing the whole guilty clause thing. It's an uninformative thought but to me: his mass claim thing reads as role fishing en masse. It's the first thought that came to mind.

The issue isn't about fake claims with a role like that. The issue is comes from real claims which he stated already.

4. I asked about the comments about the exchange we had when we had the DTM wagon. I'm still waiting on it.

@Claims
VP -> Zihark, Town Vig, Townie.
LL -> Janaff, Right hand Man to Tibiran. COAT
DTM -> Mia, Town Duelist, Townie
Sabre -> Laura, Town Cleric, Townie
Fuzzy -> Rafiel, Townie Blessing, Gives posts.
Goat -> I don't know but I can't find it.
KMD -> Shinion, Town Individual, Cap Immune

@Fuzzy
Are you back from work yet? This was your last post here. But Aside from your modding duties a post search showed you were posting in another game. It's a bit weak to say this is active lurking because there are still gaps in between games and you mainly posted within a day of each game before a 2 day/3day gap

@Sabre
I commented on your post on the whole mass claim again. I said: shouldn't the question be if we have counter claims please claim now? Do you have anything to say?

[saberwolf]

No, I just wanted to see everybody reclaim.

1. I wanted to see if anybody's stories differed from last time

2. I was lazy and didn't want to look them up for myself

Although your way is just as valid, but in a theme setup, CC situations rarely happen, unless you really know the theme.

[Locke Lamora]

I've been doing a lot of rereading and collecting my thoughts on every player. It's taking a lot of time because I haven't been keeping up with this game very well but I'm going to go ahead and post what I'm done with so far so people can respond/analyse/whatever.

ACSN/Saber: ACSN makes an early push on VP and votes Cobalt later. Seems to get quite frustrated very quickly and bails. I don't like Saber's classic AtE complaining about how he always gets lynched D1 and always flips town. I still have no idea why he voted for me, which he basically explained as 'if Sens can vote without reasons, so can I'. Also strange is his suggestion to lynch Fuzzy based on his voice of Yune being about PRs being independent of alignment. He didn't really follow this up at all afterwards and I don't think it would have achieved much. The other thing that gives me a slightly scummy feel is that earlier in the game he was making reference to having used up a lot of his posts; now he's making posts like the last one, which basically says nothing that I couldn't have told you myself with nothing else of use besides. All in all, I find a few things about saber strange or slightly scummy but I'm not getting a big scum read off him.

DTMaster: I get the impression a lot of people have uncertain reads on DTM. He uses a lot of votes to pressure people into action (ISO 3,6 and 10, DDD, ACSN and KMD votes being prime examples) which strikes me as moving his vote around without actually doing much with it. There's also something I don't like about his flavour references, such as his 'Town Sniper' comment; I don't think flavour is something to be relied on for evidence here and there's also an element of outguessing the mod going on. I'm not really sure what we're even arguing about with this whole claiming results pre/post mass-claim now. I feel like his push to get me to reveal if I had a guilty was a way for him to tell whether I had one or not and I'm very dubious about his motivation in that whole situation. I'm uneasy about a Fuzzy-DTM connection in particular right now as they each seem to have drifted through this game without really saying much about the other.

[Locke Lamora]

KMD: it's hard to say much about his earlier posts now but his vote-hopping on DDD was pretty scummy. On the posts he has made, the 'Ok, I suck' opener reads fake to me and his reasons for thinking I'm town are weak, as is his initial reasoning on a Fuzzy neutral read instead of scum read, although he later attributes this to Fuzzy's PR claim. It doesn't look like that was part of the initial thinking; it looks like VP calls him on the poor Fuzzy reasoning and KMD then attributes that read to his PR claim. He's been defending me rather enthusiastically and I don't really think my play has warranted that defence so I'm struggling to think of a pro-town reason for it aside from the fact VP is after me and he thinks VP is scum.

More to come as I finish my reread.

EBWOP: in my previous post, I referred to Saber's last post; I meant 431, not 433.

[Locke Lamora]

Oh, and as people seemed confused by this: my PM just said Role COAT. I wasn't told what COAT stands for but I assume it's cop-of-all-trades.

[Vi]

Hey, pussycat. You should've dropped by after dinner. I'm a generous man. I would've given you some table scraps.

Vote Count:

Not Voting:

DTMaster, fuzzylightning, Goatrevolt, Kmd4390, Locke Lamora, VP Baltar, saberwolf

-Prodding fuzzylightning and Goatrevolt...

--With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
--Deadline is Saturday, November 14 2009.

(5 days left)

Post Count:

saberwolf - 42
DTMaster - 23
fuzzylightning - 19
Goatrevolt - 36
Kmd4390 - 49
Locke Lamora - 17
VP Baltar - 55

People in danger of an inactivity modkill:

fuzzylightning
Goatrevolt

[Kmd4390]

Locke, your votes show an actual thought process of "who is town/scum?". I'm not saying you've played a great game. I'm saying that I can follow your posts as a town thought process.

DT, in the game I linked, ALL of my remaining reads were town reads. Nothing I could have done would have done anything other than change a stance. No, I didn't use the "too townie" argument. I never said "Player A is so town that they have to be scum". I looked at where the votes landed at the end of each day and compared them with logical scum patterns. I found both scum using those patterns. I've tried to apply the same analysis to almost every game I've played since and it's been somewhat successful.

Saber, if you were too lazy to check everyone's claims again, how would you

possibly

have caught anyone changing their claim?

Locke, I explained my thinking on DDD. I didn't want to start a new wagon regardless of who it was on. But with deadline so close, and the wagon building anyway, I was willing to hop on, especially considering I called him scum before the wagon ever popped up. And yeah, Fuzzy's play has been scummy (although I thought Cobalt and DDD were scummier and still think Saber, VP, and DT are scummier), but his ability is pretty much confirmed.

[Kmd4390]

Oh I missed this.

Kmd, why did you say this after your D1 posts were erased:

Anyone who knows anything about this needs to speak up. I'm interested to see how many posts the Mod says I've used in the next vote count.

When you know you have infinite posts? What would it matter how many posts the vote count says you used?
?

Curiosity. More about whatever ability erased my posts than anything. I thought we might see it again, but we haven't so far.

[VP Baltar]

Unvote, Vote: Kmd4390

[VP Baltar]

Actually, changed my mind. Voting patterns don't lie.

Unvote, Vote: fuzzylightning

[Kmd4390]

VP, in detail, what do you think about Fuzzy's claim?

[VP Baltar]

Role true, alignment a lie.

[Vi]

Wow, she's downright pushy. She must get that from her old man. ...And did she just call me "pookums"?

Vote Count:

fuzzylightning (L-3) ~ VP Baltar

Kmd4390 (L-4) ~

VP Baltar

Not Voting:

DTMaster, fuzzylightning, Goatrevolt, Kmd4390, Locke Lamora,

VP Baltar,

saberwolf

--With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
--Deadline is Saturday, November 14 2009.

(4 days left)

Post Count:

saberwolf - 42
DTMaster - 23
fuzzylightning - 19
Goatrevolt - 36
Kmd4390 - 51
Locke Lamora - 17
VP Baltar - 57

People in danger of an inactivity modkill:

fuzzylightning
Goatrevolt

[DTMaster]

@LL
I'm asking Fuzzy to comment? I donno I did an iso skim on Fuzzy just now and the only thing that stood out for me are

1. Lurking which a quick post search shows he didn't post anywhere after his last post yesterday. The same thing can be applied to Goat here too. To me lurking lynching = iffy because I've experienced both scum and town flips on that.

2. I'm asking him to comment more. Not like I can comment when he hasn't posted all of today. Although there is laziness on my part due to the lack of time I have to do substantial rereads.

VP pointed out his Voting analysis points to Fuzzy which I decided to do an ISO skim.

3. I noticed that a lot of fuzzy's posts were on the main bandwagons. In the last day it was really apparent with the little content he was posting.

Theory: Scum-PR coasting on his claim to the end game?

@KMD
I guess. I rather discuss more in the end game since this theory talk is wayy off topic.

[Kmd4390]

No, it's not off topic and it's not theory talk. I used a method of scumhunting and would prefer that you and the rest of the players in this game understand what it is and how it works. The fact that you call it "too townie" means you either don't understand it or are intentionally making it look bad. Personally, I think that regardless of your alignment, you don't understand it.

[Locke Lamora]

VP: the most active scumhunter throughout this game and I haven't found a great deal scummy about him since his early attack on Cobalt. The main problem I have with him is WIFOM-y as hell, and that's the fact he's still alive. I agree that scum NK choices don't seem to make a whole lot of sense this game, particularly Sens last night, but something about a town-VP still being here on D4 doesn't sit right with me. Putting the WIFOM aside, I find his play pro-town and I think the manner in which he has led the scumhunting matches up with when I've played with him as town before.

To respond to VP directly: I claimed the way I did because that's the information I selected when I read my PM. I don't think everyone has claimed in exactly the same format anyway but yes, the way I did was different. I put out what I thought was relevant information for people to assess my claim and I didn't include Townie Watcher and Role COAT; there was no conscious decision to leave that out for any specific reason. As far as I can see, your problem with this really rests on Goat's information about the 3 fakeclaims and the fact that Cobalt had one, so one of the scum, if there is a 3-man team, must not.

Fuzzy: managed to contribute about as much as me to this game, which I'm not in a great position to criticise him for. I'm not sure why anyone would accept his PR as inherently pro-town just because it gives every player posts; it could easily be a scum or a neutral role. I feel like he's often paraphrased what other players have said, particularly in giving reasons for votes: e.g. saying Cobalt acts as though Micaiah is confirmed town and saying Sens was just tunnelling on Cobalt the whole time. It's difficult for me not to sound like a hypocrite when I'm talking about lack of contributions but I really get the impression he's not even trying to offer anything new to the game. His weak flavour-based attempt to try and group Sens and myself together as scum because of our characters also reads scummy to me. As mentioned previously, I see a DTM-Fuzzy connection as very possible.

[Locke Lamora]

Goat: not really sure what to make of him right now. His early play in particular was very pro-town and cut through a lot of nonsense, especially his dismantling of Sens' attack on Cobalt. He seems to decline in activity and content following the DDD lynch, although his posting is still logical and useful, such as his reaction to VP's suggestion to me about investigations. He then starts to waver in his suspicions, basically because he's still alive, and says he's lacking in town reads, other than Saber. It's a similar 'why is he still alive?' WIFOM situation, much like VP.

As a general note: Both Fuzzy and Goat's absence appears to be legitimate rather than lurking as neither have posted since Thursday.

Conclusions: I definitely like the Fuzzy-DTM connection. Neither Fuzzy nor KMD's claims are inherently pro-town and I don't think they should be treated as such by anyone, as has been done up to this point. I think DTM could be using his 'flavour expert' position to give off townie vibes and the way he enquired after my result before massclaim just gives me the impression of scum trying to figure out if I'd pegged one of the team. I can sort of see where KMD is coming from by calling my votes good but his general defence of me just gives me scum vibes and he's one of the aforementioned defenders of Fuzzy based on his claim. Saber I could see going either way and I can see scumbuddy potential with Fuzzy but I wouldn't want to lynch him right now. Goat and VP I just get into endless WIFOM wondering why they're still here and the likes of Sens are dead and I'm getting fairly strong town reads from both so I'm going to stick with that.

SCUM
Fuzzy
KMD
DTM
Saber
Goat
VP
TOWN

I don't know if there's much point voting Fuzzy at this stage if he's going to get modkilled but he's definitely my favoured lynch and the common denominator of any scumteam I think likely.

Mod: can I get one of those double posts deleted?

Done. ~Vi

[VP Baltar]

See, LL, why do you have to go and be all logical like that NOW when you could have done it all game. You're making things complicated for me.

However, I agree wholeheartedly about fuzzy and Kmd and I'm happy to lynch them first and see where we are at from there.

I think we should definitely lynch fuzzy and not hope for a modkill because I could see it as a viable scum tactic to lurk until close to deadline and then post to avoid the modkill.

Additionally, if Goat gets modkilled, we need to make damn sure that we lynch scum (though his death might still result in a loss for us).

My guess on the three wincons is that we have a survivor among us somewhere (saber perhaps), but that's not something we can really bother with at this point.

We should keep discussion going, but I think we should try to lynch with an extra day left so we don't end up in the same situation as yesterday and lose the game.