Mini 862 ~ Mafia of Order (Game Over!)

[Locke Lamora]

Good point about the modkill. Let's definitely treat it as though Friday is the deadline and then we avoid that problem.

DTM: my point is that you and Fuzzy don't really seem to have looked at each other critically

at all

. Now you're doing a little bit of 'Fuzzy, you're not posting, contribute' but it's not exactly aggressive scumhunting.

[DTMaster]

@KMD
The point I was trying to get across is: we should rely on more forms of analysis rather then just VC. I see it as a viable tactic, but that's the point. The whole "too townie argument" is you used more reasoning based on your VC analysis to find scum in those meta games.

@LL
Normally in a case of both Fuzzy or Goat I would request for a prod/replacement since they've been gone for so long and both their last posts were in this game.

Had either player been posting in other games then I would have more suspect reasons to go: "they are actively lurking lurking in this game"

Actually

can we prod them Vi?

Since this BaM we can't replace them. Also clarification of the modkill:

if we lynch before the deadline day and people do not post at all during the week, are they mod killed for not posting for a full deadline day?

1) Yes.
2) No.
3) ~Vi

[DTMaster]

@VP/LL
Personally I don't see how lynching early prevents a mod kill due to inactivity because if they are still inactive they are inactive.

@Back to LL
I would normally support my lurker hunting with a pressure vote, but we are in potential lylo. In terms of case wise the only two things that is noticeably scummy about fuzzy have been said:

1. VC analysis revealed he bandwagoned. You can support this with his 20 posts. Key issues arise from:

a. His vote on DDD seems out of place. Fuzzy maintained a scum-sabre stance from ISO 5-7. Then iso 8-10 shows a quick transition to DDD even though sabre was the other leading wagon.

Especially this contradiction:

However, I don't really see all that much scumminess coming from DDD right now, and I will not vote just to get a claim out of him. Personally, I like my vote where it is right now, or I could go with a Saber lynch because upon a re-read, I don't really think that slot has done much of anything, and he just jumped on a bandwagon out of process of elimination and didn't really give anything as to why he was voting for DDD other than, he is the only person left.

b. his vote on Cobalt and Sens with a small amount of activity. "in and out" you can say.

But all of the above have been implied under the VC analysis so I'm basically repeating the argument. A quick ISO skim really revealed this. The scum hunting part was done by VP at this point.

The other issue is his lurking and his PR claim.

2. His lurking is null due to repeated reasons that have been said and repeated for LL, Goat and Fuzzy.

3. His PR claim is ability verified. He also posted his Yune's voice which I addressed to sabre about: PRs being independent of alignment. You can argue that its a giant dose of wifom and plants seeds of distrust in the PRs, but reading it makes sound too counter productive as scum in my opinion. Argh.. just thinking about the whole message is looping my head around.

[Vi]

Um, Micaiah? Look, I don't know anything about kings, or nobles, or anything else like that.
But you're fighting because you believe it's what's best for Daein, right? And, well, that's good enough for me. I'm with you, no matter what.

Vote Count:

fuzzylightning (L-3) ~ VP Baltar

Not Voting:

DTMaster, fuzzylightning, Goatrevolt, Kmd4390, Locke Lamora, saberwolf

-Prodding fuzzylightning and Goatrevolt again...

--With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
--Deadline is Saturday, November 14 2009.

(Only got 3 days left)

Post Count:

saberwolf - 42
DTMaster - 26
fuzzylightning - 19
Goatrevolt - 36
Kmd4390 - 52
Locke Lamora - 20
VP Baltar - 58

People in danger of an inactivity modkill:

fuzzylightning
Goatrevolt

[DTMaster]

I stand corrected then. Town deadline is friday.

[Goatrevolt]

I am here. I'm starting to read up on what I've missed. I still don't have consistent computer access, which is annoying, and I'm looking to take a break from mafia anyway, which is lowering my drive to find computer access.

[Locke Lamora]

DTM: if the WIFOM around the voice of Yune think is sending you round in circles, why not forget it completely? What I do know is that Fuzzy must be telling the truth about his ability because we all keep getting 7 posts. Fuzzy's Voice of Yune is WIFOM-y to the point of being irrelevant. Regardless of alignment, Fuzzy almost certainly thought about the same WIFOM before he claimed it. How is it counter-productive if, by claiming it in conjunction with his role, he's actually made you think he's not scum? That sounds like very productive for scum to me.

I believe you would agree with the following:
-his role is proven.
-giving posts to everyone is not a guaranteed pro-town role.
-his vote patterns have been scummy.

If you leave aside the Yune WIFOM, what's your conclusion?

[Locke Lamora]

Goat: can we actually get a claim from you?

[VP Baltar]

^This, exactly. Goat, I really hope that even though you don't have that much motivation toward this game, you'd at least give us some level of effort out of fairness to everyone else in the game.

I know it is hard when you don't feel like playing anymore, but if you are town you are really reducing our chances of winning by just lurking away.

Saber, you still have nothing to say? Who do you think is scum?

Mod, I'm confused. So you are saying the only way that a player would be modkilled for inactivity is if the deadline runs out and we do not lynch?

If deadline expires or if you lynch on "This is your last day!" then I will modkill. Arbitrary legalism at its finest! ~Vi

[Vi]

Child, you couldn't possibly bother me. It's just, the talk you and I must have is going to take a long time. I don't think Ashera would wait for us to finish.

Vote Count:

fuzzylightning (L-3) ~ VP Baltar

Not Voting:

DTMaster, fuzzylightning, Goatrevolt, Kmd4390, Locke Lamora, saberwolf

-Let's see, who needs prodding today... saberwolf!

--With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
--Deadline is Saturday, November 14 2009.

(Only got 2 days left)

Post Count:

saberwolf - 42
DTMaster - 27
fuzzylightning - 19
Goatrevolt - 37
Kmd4390 - 52
Locke Lamora - 21
VP Baltar - 59

People in danger of an inactivity modkill:

fuzzylightning

[Kmd4390]

@KMD
The point I was trying to get across is: we should rely on more forms of analysis rather then just VC. I see it as a viable tactic, but that's the point. The whole "too townie argument" is you used more reasoning based on your VC analysis to find scum in those meta games.

Of course. Look at what people are saying and see if anything is scummy/townie. Determine likely (in)accuracy of claims. Use gut. Look at votes. After all of this, decide who is scum and lay a vote. The VC analysis is part of this process.

That's not the "too townie" argument at all.

---------------

In case of a Fuzzy modkill (assumes 3 scum, no 3rd party):
Possibility A- No Lynch
------Fuzzy is town
--------------We lose.
------Fuzzy is scum
---------------Great. We get another day to find his buddies.
Possibility B- Lynch Fuzzy
------He is town.
---------------We lose.
-------He is scum
---------------Great. We get another day to find his buddies.
Possibility C- Lynch someone else
------Lynch is town, Fuzzy is scum
----------------Scum win
------Lynch is scum, Fuzzy is town
----------------Scum win
------Lynch and Fuzzy are both town
----------------Scum win
------Lynch and Fuzzy are both scum
----------------Great. We get another day to find their buddy.

In case of a Fuzzy modkill (assumes 2 scum and a 3rd party):
Possibility A- No Lynch
------Fuzzy is town
---------------Scum kill 3rd party
-------------------------LYLO
---------------Scum kill town
-------------------------LYLO, knowing there are only 2 scum left.
-------Fuzzy is scum
---------------Great. Another day to find his buddy.
-------Fuzzy is 3rd party
----------------LYLO, knowing there are only 2 scum left
Possibility B-Lynch Fuzzy
------Fuzzy is town
---------------Scum kill 3rd party
-------------------------LYLO
---------------Scum kill town
-------------------------LYLO, knowing there are only 2 scum left.
-------Fuzzy is scum
---------------Great. Another day to find his buddy.
-------Fuzzy is 3rd party
----------------LYLO, knowing there are only 2 scum left
Possibility C-Lynch someone else
-------Lynch is town, Fuzzy is scum
----------------Scum kill town
-------------------------LYLO, knowing there are only 2 scum left (town can only win with help from 3rd party)
----------------Scum kill 3rd party
-------------------------LYLO, knowing there are only 2 scum left
-------Lynch is scum, Fuzzy is town
----------------Scum kill town
-------------------------LYLO, knowing there are only 2 scum left (town can only win with help from 3rd party)
----------------Scum kill 3rd party
-------------------------LYLO, knowing there are only 2 scum left
-------Lynch and Fuzzy are both town
----------------Scum kill town
-------------------------Scum win, pending 3rd party's role
----------------Scum kill 3rd party
--------------------------Scum win
-------One of lynch/Fuzzy is 3rd party. Other is town.
----------------Scum win
--------One of lynch/Fuzzy is 3rd party. Other is scum.
----------------LYLO, knowing there are only 2 scum left.

Everything above assumes scum's kills go through successfully.

Analysis:
Possibility A/B)A No Lynch and Fuzzy lynch are the same thing (obviously)
Pros: If Fuzzy is scum, good for us.
Cons: If Fuzzy is non-scum, we lose unless a 3rd party exists.
Possibility C)
Pros: Higher chance of hitting at least one non-town
Cons: We can only win if either Fuzzy is non-town or we lynch non-town.

Conclusions:
1)A no lynch or Fuzzy lynch probably benefits us most if Fuzzy is modkilled.
2)If Fuzzy shows up and isn't modkilled, we'd better be able to pull together a lynch or we're fucked.
3) Fuzzy is fucking us over not being around. Scum play or bad town play?

Vote Fuzzy

Reasons: It's the best play there is right now with him dying regardless. No lynch fucks us if he shows up. Lynching someone else fucks us if he doesn't. If Fuzzy shows up, I want to lynch Saber, but could support a lynch of VP or DT. If not, he's our lynch. If he shows up just before deadline, he needs to be lynched unless enough of us are online to pull together another wagon.

[DTMaster]

@LL
1. Ideally I would like to hear from Fuzzy before our friday deadline hits. It just seems empty after going on a fuzzy attack to not hear any form of defence in his case. Gut gives me bad vibes for some reason. I trust my gut.

Read Battlemage Mafia where I called out on Tubby216 being town and maintained a gut town read. Though it got really hard to maintain it after he soft claimed scum as town neighbor. x.x

2. If fuzzy turns out town, that means his Yune's voice is true. That also concludes your analysis that scum claimed their real roles rather then a fake one. It reminds me of Scrubs mafia in a way, where JD and Turk turned out to be mafia actually. Also Sens' game with HP, Hermione and Ron. (Both were pretty informative skims)

3. If fuzzy doesn't respond tomorrow I'll hammer/L-1 vote him per requested by the town date for Friday.

4. To answer your question I cannot defend fuzzy with what I read and I just see VP's case being valid. Aka. What Fuzzy did post is scummy and a VC analysis showed that. I'll do what I stated by 3 tomorrow, to allow him time to post.

@KMD
In a worst case scenerio that Fuzzy doesn't respond and is town, unless town absolutely caught scum its instant win for scum if town goes on another bandwagon? Ew. That's just gross. It forces you to lynch fuzzy/nolynch if he's still inactive past Saturday. >>;;

@Sabre
How's your reread so far? You do know you can post up to 450 words...

[Kmd4390]

Wait.

Fuzzy town means we lose unless there's a 3rd party or he actually shows up. Shit.

But if there are 3 scum and we lynch someone else, scum win unless both are scum.

So lynching Fuzzytown is bad if there are 3 scum. Lynching someone else doesn't affect this. So Fuzzy being town hurts us regardless in a 3 scum scenario.

In a 2 scum, 1 3rd party scenario, we can't lose by lynching Fuzzy. Lynching someone else drastically broadens the possibilities.

Oh, and I accidentally left out 2 scum/3rd party -> lynch someone else -> both scum = 4 players deadling with only a 3rd party remaining.

Basically, we need Fuzzy to show up. If he doesn't, we need to lynch him.

[Kmd4390]

I almost want to suggest we pull together a quicklynch because I think Fuzzy is town. That way, Fuzzy lives and we increase our chances of hitting scum. But the only way that works is if:
1)All 4 non-Fuzzy, non-scum agree on a lynch AND our choice is scum. (if there is a non-Fuzzy 3rd party, they'd have to agree too)
OR
2)Scum decide to bus our choice.
OR
3)Our choice is town and we fuck up.
OR
4)Fuzzy is scum and we can get 4 out of the 5 other non-scum to agree, in which case lynching Fuzzy is good anyway.
OR
5)We choose incorrectly and scum help us mislynch
OR
6)We find the 3rd party if it exists. Scum might help us here. We are in LYLO tomorrow.

We have a lot of options and not many even look that good. I'm thinking a Fuzzy lynch is probably better than a quicklynch or a last minute lynch that kills both our choice and Fuzzy.

[Kmd4390]

Saber, can you weigh in while you are online please?

[saberwolf]

Saber, can you weigh in while you are online please?

hi

yeah, after looking over the posts you put up, I tend to agree as it seems sound, but I can't help but feel as if I'm being presuaded to ignore my previous intentions to vote for LL and vote for fuzzy, as if LL is scum and a redirection is needed to save him.

When it comes down to it though, I can't really argue against logic, so I will agree with a fuzzy lynch.

Would like to hear the other's views before I place my vote.

[Locke Lamora]

By others do you mean Goat and Fuzzy, Saber? As far as I can see, VP, DTM, KMD and myself have all given their thoughts on a Fuzzy lynch.

As seems to be apparent from Vi's comment, Fuzzy will be modkilled if we get into the last day. I think 2100 EST on Saturday is the deadline, which means that unless Fuzzy posts in the next 18 hours, he's getting killed regardless of whether we choose to lynch him. I'll be able to get on regularly for the next 4-5 hours so I'll keep checking if he has posted to change that scenario, but I'm going to vote for him at the end of that time if he hasn't. We really need to hear Goat's claim, thoughts on Fuzzy and the game in general before we end this day.

[saberwolf]

Could you guys answer a question:

why was it when i brought this up with sensfan, it was unimportant...but now that KMD mentioned it, well, now it's just the most important thing ever?

I might not be on later, so I'll just have to vote:

vote:fuzzy

although I really feel LL is one of our scum, there is a good chance I suppose fuzzy is the other.

[Locke Lamora]

The modkill thing? I wasn't actually here, but I think that was a completely different situation. I think you asked about Sens when there was still over 48 hours until modkill. We've now got about 17.

Can you elaborate on why you think I'm scum? One of the reasons you gave for your vote earlier was that you haven't heard my results, which you have now, so has your opinion been affected?

[saberwolf]

The main problem I have is that of which VP brought up, that the odds of there being so many PRs is slim. Also, your results are useless in a sense, cause it'd be so easy to fake your abilities as scum. Simply pick a townie for the post count, as they have no reason to lie, then pick either your scumbuddy or another townie for the other two. Either way you appear credible or else attempt to clear a scumbuddy.

Assuming you are telling the truth, that leaves out you, VP and Goat [them two for being pro-town]. KMD is iffy, but the recent posts make sense from a logic POV and most scum wouldn't do it. That leaves fuzzy and DTMaster, so I guess fuzzy will do for now.

[Locke Lamora]

I agree that my results have been largely useless other than to verify that you and DTM are telling the truth about those respective characteristics. My best bet of getting something really valuable was to catch out someone who claimed before I revealed my abilities and you were the only two players who I had the option on at the time. I'd wager that everyone who claimed since then has probably claimed their genuine names and roles so that I couldn't catch them out.

Something else I find interesting:

although I really feel LL is one of our scum, there is a good chance I suppose fuzzy is the other.

This implies you think there are two scum. You know something we don't?

[saberwolf]

if you read my previous posts, i have always been skeptical of the fact that there were 3 scum to begin with. Also, if you look at one of the voices of yune, the one where there are three fakeclaims in the whole game, we had one townie with a fakeclaim, which leaves one of the scum if there were to be three without a fakeclaim to fall back on. That is why I believe there to only be two scum. Hope that helps.

[VP Baltar]

Kmd's flop on fuzzy makes no sense whatsoever. Come on, guys. We have to pay attention here.

Think about this: Kmd says he believes very strongly that fuzzy is town. He called me scum for thinking that LL or fuzzy was likely scum. Now we are in likely lylo and he wants to lynch fuzzy? That makes zero sense if he actually believes him to be town. What a town person would be doing in that situation is organizing a lynch against someone he thought was scum BEFORE fuzzy would get modkilled. That is the safest play for a town player who believes fuzzy to be town.

This massive flop shows me that fuzzy is Kmd's partner and he's trying to bus at the last minute for credit because the lynch seems unavoidable at this point.

I'm happy to go through with the fuzzy lynch, but my opinion is that we should wait until our last day (presuming everyone guarantees they will be online) and then we lynch Kmd and let his fuzzy buddy take the modkill. Two scum in one day would give us some much needed breathing room.

[VP Baltar]

@ saber-we also had a voice of yune that said there were three win conditions too.

[Locke Lamora]

I disagree.

Hammertime.

Vote: fuzzylightning