Mini 880 - Mini Quick and Dirty - Game Over


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Post Post #175 (ISO) » Fri Nov 13, 2009 6:19 pm

Post by Raskol »

First of all, nothing anyone did on Day three has any bearing on what would have been optimal D1 play. Second, the kind of thing you (and others) like to do on later days
relies
on people, everyone, generating the kind of information I'm asking you to provide. If there is no specific content then there are no general theories to be made. Do not think that you are the only player that forms big-picture game reads, or that what's involved in forming those theories is anything other than the same using-tells-and-connections-to-determine-alignments-and-possible-pairs strategy that I've been advocating all along, which you've called "conventional play", and telling you we need everyone's involved participation to get. Being able to form big-picture theories is an important skill for anyone to have---but it does not excuse you from helping to generate the content that goes into making those theories as well. You are not an observer, you are part of the game and your alignment is in question.

Second, and related, if you don't feel you have anything to go on that will get you a better than random read, then your first order of business is to go about getting information that will get you a better than average read. You don't sit around and wait for someone to provide you with that information. I'm not asking you to make things up---far from it. In fact, I would find that scummy and I think it's strange that you think that's what I'm asking. What I'm asking you to do is take the strongest evidence you currently have and work with it.

This goes not only to you, by the way, but you're currently the best person to be saying this to as you're actually responding to it. For what it's worth, I expect this out of everyone (each in his own way) and you're not the only one who isn't delivering at the moment.
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Post Post #176 (ISO) » Fri Nov 13, 2009 6:19 pm

Post by SerialClergyman »

I'll try to make this the last time I say this.

I will not conjure up a case, reads or stances because someone wants me to or because someone feels the need to judge me. I will let everyone know my case, reads or stances when I make them.

I don't think you or Raskol realise is that what you are asking me to do is lie about my reads. You will get them in thread when they are worth saying.
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Post Post #177 (ISO) » Fri Nov 13, 2009 6:28 pm

Post by SerialClergyman »

By the way, I view your method of taking the strongest evidence you have and using it as a 'small crack to work with to create a larger one' is 100% exactly how NOT to play as a townie.

What that says to me is you take some piece of evidence that is in all probability null, you then use that to pressure someone until they look more scummy (not hard) and then you have someone who seems scummy!
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Post Post #178 (ISO) » Fri Nov 13, 2009 6:34 pm

Post by Raskol »

Who says you use it to make them seem more scummy than they were? You operate just like anyone who's trying to find the truth would---you form a theory, and you seek out to test it. If your'e wrong you're wrong, and you move on---now using your new interactions (which hopefully generated new content and more information) to generate a new theory, which you then test, and so on.

weak theory->test->evaluate->stronger theory->etc.

If you're going to assume that anyone who scumhunts is operating under confirmation bias or any other fallacies then of course you're going to think it will be ineffective. Give people a bit of credit, for god's sake.
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Post Post #179 (ISO) » Fri Nov 13, 2009 6:37 pm

Post by Zorblag »

@Amished, you be most welcome to refer to Troll as Troll, in fact Troll encourages it. As it be an established and unambiguous nickname it should work fine for votes as well.

@SerialClergyman, Troll would assume that there be another "being able to discern which slips caused by pressure are scummy and which ones aren't" component to Raskol's wedge theory. That just be an assumption of course. For Troll that actually be a huge part of the game as mistakes can be nicely telling for either scum or town if one has enough context to work with.

@everyone, Troll has seen enough of SerialCleryman's responses to pressure to not be interested in lynching him day one unless he does something particularly scummy from here on out. Troll expects to see his thoughts as he has them and plans to judge him based on those. If them fail to manifest Troll will be able to judge that as well. In any case, Troll has been able to establish expectations from what him has said.

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Post Post #180 (ISO) » Fri Nov 13, 2009 6:44 pm

Post by SerialClergyman »

I do believe that the wedge theory suffers inherently from confirmation bias in general, and I KNOW that I suffer confirmation bias when I use it. My early games as town are a testament to that. Hence my change
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Post Post #181 (ISO) » Fri Nov 13, 2009 6:47 pm

Post by Amished »

Pretty sure I agree with everything that Raskol is saying.

@SC: I want to get this clear: You don't have reads on anybody (cause I've asked for both pro-town and scum reads) 8 pages in, when you're one of the more active people in thread. Is that about right?

I'm not asking you to manufacture anything, I want your honest opinion. Fine, fuck it, take me and Raskol. We're two of the people disagreeing with you/your playstyle the most right now. Do you think that Raskol is scum for his stance/motivation? Do you think I am? Or do you think that either of us are more likely town than scum? I'm not asking for God's truth here, I want an opinion. If you have to fake an opinion, then we're already a step ahead of where we were. I just want you to tell me your thoughts on the game. There's 150 posts worth of whatever to make any sort of opinion.

In comparison: Zorblag's post (when I asked him for his opinion) was perfectly fine, it allows us to talk about more stuff in the game and allows people to get a read on him without actually giving away what he looks at for town/scum reads. It wasn't anything ground-breaking. It was just his opinion on the game. It doesn't even really need to be about the people, it could be about the pace (too slow, too fast, whatever). Give us something.
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Post Post #182 (ISO) » Fri Nov 13, 2009 6:53 pm

Post by Amished »

Anyways, I'm heading to bed. Don't know how active I'll be this weekend, we're celebrating Thanksgiving early.
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Post Post #183 (ISO) » Fri Nov 13, 2009 6:59 pm

Post by SerialClergyman »

If you have to fake an opinion, then we're already a step ahead of where we were.
I think that's black-and-white wrong.
Zorblag's post (when I asked him for his opinion) was perfectly fine, it allows us to talk about more stuff in the game
I think you've been doing nothing but talk about me all game? Go off, be free, I allow you to talk about whatever you wish!

My opinion on you is that you're liklier to be scum than average but not by much, mostly because of what I've already raised about your edginess. Your reaction to my playstyle could be opportunistic, but in reality I draw this kind of reaction in most games I play so I'd have to say null on the balance.

My opinion on Raskol is that he is engaged in a theory debate which I can see him having as town or scum. He has very strong views on how to play the game to maximal effect, views which we've at least partially clashed on before. It's possible he's scum looking for a way to lynch me without having much responsibility (hence the 'I don't care about meta or whether you do this as town, if you're acting like this I'm more likely to lynch you' talk) but I see no reason to think that's more likely than him just genuinely disagreeing totally with how I play D1.

My opinion on Zorblag is he is being particularly reasonable and intelligent in his questions and responses but again, I can see both pro-town and pro-scum motivations for it.
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Post Post #184 (ISO) » Fri Nov 13, 2009 7:01 pm

Post by SerialClergyman »

In fact, there really is a certain irony about mentioning Zorblag's post as worthy of talking about after a series of 10+ posts specifically talking about me, in a post that is specifically addressed to and about me.
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Post Post #185 (ISO) » Fri Nov 13, 2009 8:10 pm

Post by Sando »

Is it Amished whinging at me to vote? I'll vote when I want to pressure someone or lynch them. I don't FOS, and throwing the vote around loses it's potency, especially early on. My point regarding looking at my vote history and calling me a fence-sitter is just that, I wasn't voting, if you wish to call me a fence-sitter, feel free, I'm not one, and you're not going to get me lynched on it before I form strong enough opinions to show that, so I really don't care.

A lot of the arguments put forward are meta, and I've said that I don't like meta, and basically ignore it from other people. There are only 2 people who I meta, Serial and Ojanen, Serial because I've known him a long long time, Ojanen because I've played 2 games with her, both with her as scum, 1 with me as her hydra partner as scum, so I trust my judgement there a lot more. In reference to meta's on those, serial is a lot more passive than normal, and Ojanen hasn't posted enough to make it worthwhile.

Amished constantly asking for reads from everyone gets on my nerves, and I personally find it quite scummy outside of newbie games. Every single time I get asked for them and provide them I get accused of being scum (as town), broad reads on everyone are way way way too easy to spin into anything you want. So when I have a case to articulate, I will, if you want to accuse me of fence sitting, do so.

Also, the advantage of being very broad in D1 as serial advocates is that you're open to a lot of information at a time when you need all the information you can get. Bandwagoning people for D1 slips so often ends in town lynches, as does Serials proposal, problem is that weak BWs on D1 result in little information for D2.

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Post Post #186 (ISO) » Sat Nov 14, 2009 5:03 am

Post by Amished »

@SC: It's not wrong cause if you're making up something, it won't look right and scum have to make up scummy if they don't want to buss.

Oh, I will talk about other stuff, you were just around right now and somebody that I had the most difference of opinion on.

Yes, Troll's response brought up more discussion about you, but at the very least, it's allowed him to get a town read on you. I am leaning that way as well, so the discussion helped the town. Posts don't have to accuse somebody of being scum to be helpful.

Ahh, Sando, about time.

@Sando: You might want to read 143-145 again. First, you gave us words to describe yourself from what you've done, then *Raskol* said you were a fence-sitter, etc. and then I agreed with him.

Couple things I have a problem with:
Sando wrote:I'm not one, and you're not going to get me lynched on it before I form strong enough opinions to show that, so I really don't care.
1) I'm not voting for you, so I'm not going to "get you lynched on it".
2) I haven't voted for SC for not voting for somebody in serious, so what would make you think you're "special" enough to earn my vote?
Sando wrote:Every single time I get asked for them and provide them I get accused of being scum (as town), broad reads on everyone are way way way too easy to spin into anything you want.
I think this game has already provided evidence exactly contrary to this opinion. Troll's post, that I've previously mentioned is vague but I didn't call him scum for that.

You actually want to get into this game instead of applying your newbie experiences to more advanced players?
I'm going on a crusade to put more thought into my posts.

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Post Post #187 (ISO) » Sat Nov 14, 2009 5:31 am

Post by SerialClergyman »

@SC: It's not wrong cause if you're making up something, it won't look right and scum have to make up scummy if they don't want to buss.
What if I'm town without a good idea on who is scum yet? How do you determine what made up case is coming from town dealing with an unreasonable demand vs scum trying to get a townie lynched?
Yes, Troll's response brought up more discussion about you, but at the very least, it's allowed him to get a town read on you. I am leaning that way as well, so the discussion helped the town. Posts don't have to accuse somebody of being scum to be helpful.
Whose point are you making with this post? Hasn't it me who's been advocating getting reads without needlessly accusing people of being scum on low evidence and hasn't it been you and raskol who have been advocating forcing people to to make accusations, even if the evidence was only minor?
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Post Post #188 (ISO) » Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:17 am

Post by Amished »

If you're town, I don't expect you to have to make anything up, your opinions will be genuine.

I don't think I've called you scum for not having an opinion, I've questioned you about your read on the game/anything just so we can get information *to get a read on people*. Asking for you to analyze people as except for OJ, we've all posted. If OJ is scum, she's not the only one so there's scum in here somewhere.

I feel like we're going around in circles. Without asking other people their opinions, there's nothing to spur on the game and get a read from. Accuse people for weak reasons, see how they react, you don't have to push for their lynch right away just cause you're voting for them out of the RVS.

Finally, get your read then, if you're not going to accuse somebody of being scum. Just don't criticize my style of play for accusing somebody and then getting a read on their reactions.
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Post Post #189 (ISO) » Sat Nov 14, 2009 9:09 am

Post by Raskol »

Sando, would you say that being asked for a read is your primary reason for voting Amished?

What do you see him as trying to accomplish by asking those sorts of questions, if he's scum?
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Post Post #190 (ISO) » Sat Nov 14, 2009 10:54 am

Post by Sando »

Raskol wrote:Sando, would you say that being asked for a read is your primary reason for voting Amished?

What do you see him as trying to accomplish by asking those sorts of questions, if he's scum?
Primary? Not just me personally being asked, but him asking a few people now, but yes, constantly asking for run-downs of who you find town/scum, I think is scummy or at least bad for town.

Doing it doesn't help scumhunt, most of them are things like 'I think xxxx is pro-town at the moment' or 'getting slight scum read on yyyy'. It doesn't point anything out to anyone, and it becomes way too easy to then pull out replies later and turn them into a fake case. The most common of these being linking cases.

What's he trying to accomplish? Well, for 1, they're useless for town, but look good, so it looks like there's a lot of info coming in, when really bugger all is happening. And secondly, it provides scum (and bad town I guess) with ample ammunition for making bad cases.
Amished wrote:@Sando: You might want to read 143-145 again. First, you gave us words to describe yourself from what you've done, then *Raskol* said you were a fence-sitter, etc. and then I agreed with him.

1) I'm not voting for you, so I'm not going to "get you lynched on it".
2) I haven't voted for SC for not voting for somebody in serious, so what would make you think you're "special" enough to earn my vote?

You actually want to get into this game instead of applying your newbie experiences to more advanced players?


My point is that since you can't get me lynched before I show that I'm not a fence-sitter, and in showing that would completely remove that case, I really don't care if you wish to make that case against me. Basically, I was telling you to continue whinging about my lack of voting/ strong opinions all you want, it's not going to get you anywhere.

Also, considering you started the bit directed at me with "Ahh, Sando, about time", how long do I have to have these arguments with you before you stop accusing me of not being involved in the game? Just because I don't provide exactly what you want, doesn't mean I'm not involved.
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Post Post #191 (ISO) » Sat Nov 14, 2009 11:01 am

Post by Sando »

P.S. I never said that the run-down posts that result in townie lynches only happen in newbie games, just that I find them less scummy in newbie games. It's happened to me and I've used it on others in non-newbie games as scum.

But you know, keep misrepresenting what I said Amished, looks real good.
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Post Post #192 (ISO) » Sat Nov 14, 2009 11:17 am

Post by Raskol »

I don't even know where to begin with that, Sando. I have to say, I disagree that asking for people's opinion is scummy. Unless you seriously think that the only way to give your opinions is in a weak and useless way, you don't have a leg to stand on here.

As for your involvement in the game---you haven't done anything except whine about people accusing you of not being involved, and vote the person who's asked you specifically for content. That is not involvement. If you think giving a list of people with stupid unreasoned remarks about their alignment won't help the town, you're right---but that's not what you're being asked for. You're being asked for your thoughts on the game, and those will only be useless if you are.
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Post Post #193 (ISO) » Sat Nov 14, 2009 11:26 am

Post by Sando »

I'm not saying that asking for peoples opinions is scummy, merely asking for run-downs on everyone is scummy. Generalisations I find scummy, they aren't helpful to town and provide too much ammunition to scum players. If you can't say more than 'this guy is generally scummy' then it's useless.

I've commented on Meta and provided it on the one person at the moment that I feel I can. I've commented on Amished refusing to even discuss joke-posts, and how stupid I find long 'xxx is probably town for no good reason, just is' posts on everyone. I also stated that I found Amished's vote switching scummy.

Just because I refuse to provide exactly what you're asking for doesn't mean I'm not contributing. I'm currently arguing with both you and Amished it seems, it provides information to us and provides information to others reading.

And asking for my 'primary' reason for voting someone and then treating that as my only reason for voting someone is a huge misrep, and seems like a pretty calculating one at that...
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Post Post #194 (ISO) » Sat Nov 14, 2009 12:16 pm

Post by Raskol »

Just one problem, Sando---no one ever asked you for a stupid rundown post. You were asked who was scummy to you and
why
. No one has asked anyone for a rundown. So basically, as far as I can tell, you're getting really angry over something that didn't even happen. Amished asked you for opinions, you refused and made a big deal over it, making it into some big scummy thing. After thinking it over a bit, I'm not sure I see your behavior as scummy, but you're being antitown at the very least and I hope you'll start making your positions clear in whatever way you're most comfortable with---and as soon as possible, too.

As for my 'calculating misrep'--where did I say that was your only reason?
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Post Post #195 (ISO) » Sat Nov 14, 2009 12:16 pm

Post by Raskol »

Anyway, there are a lot of people I'd like to hear more from. It's not good to have a situation where there are 3-4 people taking up all of the conversation.
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Post Post #196 (ISO) » Sat Nov 14, 2009 3:53 pm

Post by Amished »

I have a lot to say to you, Sando. A lot of what I was planning on saying Raskol has taken care of, but there are some more points that I want to make. Don't have time right now though.
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Post Post #197 (ISO) » Sat Nov 14, 2009 8:13 pm

Post by Sando »

Raskol:

1: Fair enough if I got that wrong, I got that wrong, if noone asked me for a complete rundown of everyone, fine. I was in a rush and late to the game, I may have misread it as asking me for that sort of post. However, there's not a lot of difference between asking just who is scummy, and a complete run-down post. Clearly, anyone I don't include as scummy can be assumed as being seen as townie by me, and I'm providing even less info. So there's not exactly a lot of difference.

2: I'm not angry, not alot can get me angry in mafia, outside of sheer stupidity from someone I know or believe to be a faction partner. You guys aren't being stupid, and I like arguing, so I'm not angry.

3: I haven't refused to give my opinions, I've refused to give my opinions in the format he wants. He asked me a very general question, I attacked him over it, not sure what the problem from you is.

4: I have made my position clear, you decided to make it less clear by taking the 3 or 4 things that I didn't like about Amished and forcing me to define it as one 'primary' thing. You then said that all I've done is "vote the person who's asked you specifically for content" as if that's the only reason that I voted him.
Raskol wrote:As for my 'calculating misrep'--where did I say that was your only reason?
Saying that all I've done is "vote the person who's asked you specifically for content" pretty strongly implies that that's the only reason I voted him. I've said a few things that I find scummy about Amished, you chose to ignore them.
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Post Post #198 (ISO) » Sat Nov 14, 2009 11:06 pm

Post by SerialClergyman »

In the last 1.5 days, the following people haven't posted.

1. AGar
3. ekiM
4. ODDin
5. Ojanen
6. Papa Zito
9. Scien
11. VP Baltar

I'm starting to think this game is a practical joke played on us and they're all snickering in a Quicktopic somewhere wondering how long it'll take us to work it out.
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Post Post #199 (ISO) » Sun Nov 15, 2009 12:01 am

Post by VP Baltar »

Wow, a whole 1.5 days. Anyhow, I am behind in this game and plan to catch in my free time today.
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Too busy with work to play mafia right now but I shall return some day!

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