DP12 JeepFest Mafia GAME OVER

[Axelrod]

Hi guys.

Only one "kill" which is somewhat encouraging. So possibly only one killing group? If there are two groups (including SK type) that would seem to indicate a very lucky Doc protection. We probably won't know if this is the case until day 2 (Maybe it's just the games I've been playing lately, but it seems like there's usually more than one kill day 1).

Plus, I don't know about anyone else, but when I read the set-up, I more or less assumed that there would be a certain SK in this game (no points for guessing who that would be.)

No vote for now, as I am not a fan of the random vote.

Looking forward to a good game.

[Axelrod]

Vote: Axelrod

First day killing speculations never sit well with me.

Ah yes, because "random" voting is so much better.

What about first day mafia speculation? Looking at the intro. I see this:

The player names are a mix of names of people who will attend the actual party and other well-known names from one (or both) of the two sites. Several of the actual participants of JeepFest are left out of the players, something the baddies are aware of. This should spoil any suggestions of an early mass claim.

So, what that suggests to me, is that the mafia may be comprised of roles of people who are "not" invited to the party. Why else would DP point out that not everyone who is at the party is represented,

and that the baddies are aware of this

? Seems to me the reason is to give the mafia a few "safe" claims in that group if the mafia can find them. However, it is also clear that there

will

be some townies who are not party invitees, as DP says to aviod a mass claim breaking the game open. This allows the mafia to also "safely" claim someone not at the party (which could be their real role, I suppose.)

The point is, the people who

are

party invitees would seem to be slightly more clear than others, based just on that post. This finds a little support in that Big K was an actual party invitee, I believe.

I'm not suggesting that we do anything with this yet. But it's something to consider as we go along.

[Axelrod]

"Do anything with"

what

, exactly? Basically, DP said that roles aren't just comprised of people actually in attendance at Jeepfest so that everyone knows that a role claim like "MeMe" isn't necessarily bogus and that a role claim of "Jeep" isn't a sure thing. Without DP's statement, a mass claim might have been a possible strategy...

with

DP's statement, it isn't.

So, basically, you want to interpret DP's note as a point in favor of tentatively clearing the actual partygoers which, I believe, is exactly the type of thing DP was trying to show us is fruitless. I'm willing to wager that your role is actually in attendance -- I'm quite

un

willing, however, to go along with the notion that you're less likely to be scum because of it.

And this has nothing to do with the game -- but I just want to clarify that there were no "invitees" to Jeepfest. All GLers and 'scummers were welcome!

Perhaps I did not make myself clear. When I read that part of DP's introduction, it sounded to me like the mafia would be people who were

not

attending the Jeepfest in real life (forget "invited"). Do you disagree with that? It could be wrong--I'm not claiming any kind of inside knowledge--but that's what it sounded like.

In order to

prevent

a mass role claim from breaking the game open, DP has also clearly stated (1) that not everyone who is actually in attendance IRL will be represented in this game and (2) that there will be townie roles in this game who are people not attending the party. Do you disagree with that?

If these statements are true, then the people who have roles that are actually attending the party are more likely to be townies. That's all I'm saying. And it's just a speculation at this point. But it might be relevant later, when people actually start role-claiming.

And I'm not making this speculation based on my own role either, just what has been presented.

[Axelrod]

Semi-random

Vote: Axelrod

. From looking over games I've been in lately, the first person to speculate on the number and nature of killing groups is more often than not a killer themselves.

Such as, oh I don't know, Mini 175 (the only other game we have ever been in together) where I was most definately town.

Hey, come to think of it, you voted for me first in that game too. What the hell!

Vote Vesuvan

Meh. You were town in that game too.

Unvote

I just prefer actually talking about stuff. Look at

any

game I have ever been in. The random voting that starts off every game around here annoys me. Unfortunately that tends to make me a target. I've been killed the first night after a day in every game I've played on this site (excepting the one game where I actually was a mafia.) But I accept that. I'd still rather speculate. It's much more interesting.

[Axelrod]

As you have seen me play in more games than most people here from reading the games I've played in on other sites, you should know that I am quite strongly against early-game speculation on the setup except when I'm scum and have a good way of manipulating the town by doing so.

Speculation regarding setup can't really be done all that effectively until day 2 at the earliest anyway since there is only a single event (night) to draw conclusions from and the only people with any information beyond their own role are mafia (who want to mislead the town) and townies with power-roles (who should not reveal themselves early in the game).

Well I obviously disagree. Early speculation

can

be effective. More to the point, I do it all the time, and by all the time, I mean every game I have ever been in--with some small success I might add. So for you to suggest that it means I am more likely to be a mafia is flatly untrue.

Even more to the point, you appear to realize this (or possibly you only realize it now?), but you are still trying to argue the point. Or are you just making a general game-theory-meta-game type argument that has nothing to do with me?

Even if that is what you are doing, I still probably disagree. You say that the mafia (who have more information at this point) could use early game speculation to try and mislead the town. Well, they could

try

, but those activities would still leave a record. If it later turned out that a "theory" advanced by a player was dead wrong, and, in fact harmful to town interests, that player would be on the hot-seat, as would players who supported him/her (and you might even be able to get a read or the people who were "opposed" to the idea, from the "manner" in which they were opposed. In that sense, early game speculation is the safest kind of speculation, because there is the most time to figure things out and "fix" theories which have been shown to be wrong.

The ultimate point is that it is better for the town to be talking--and talking about something game related--than spinning its wheels.

At least that's how I play it. But enough about my philosophy. What do you want to talk about?

[Axelrod]

I guess safe was the wrong word. Safe, as in, he seems scummy (as I believe Axelrod also seems scummy)

My, my, this is interesting. You want to talk scummy? How about bandwagoning the

ninth

vote on someone, against whom the entire case consists of "he posted shortly after someone pointed out he hadn't posted yet."

And, at the same time he is bandwagoning, he is saying how scummy he thinks someone

else

is.

It occurs to me that an observant mafia could have noticed the error in the vote count, and by stating in his post that the vote was only "eight", when in fact it was nine, that could have possibly led to a mis-lynch by the town.

I'll wait until Vesuvan has a chance to respond before saying anything else, but that don't look good.

[Axelrod]

I must say, Vesuvan is either innocent or one of the most cool-headed mafia I've ever seen.

Right now, I'm mainly agreeing with the silent speaker in his assesment of the situation. I'd like to hear more from SaberKitty about her reasoning before putting another vote on though.

[Axelrod]

I must say, Vesuvan is either innocent or one of the most cool-headed mafia I've ever seen.

Right now, I'm mainly agreeing with the silent speaker in his assesment of the situation. I'd like to hear more from SaberKitty about her reasoning before putting another vote on though.

Um, and in case that wasn't completely clear. I meant putting another vote on

SaberKitty

, not Vesuvan.

[Axelrod]

So, we have a bandwagon on Vesuvan that gets up to 9 votes (LoudmouthLee and SaberKitty respectively being the ones putting him one vote away--and I acknowledge there was a vote count error before Loudmouth's vote.)

Then a new wagon forms on SaberKitty which gets to 8 votes (PBuG putting on the last).

And now there is some momentum going towards Olio.

I see some legitimate points made, especially against these last two, but, I've never been a follower. Prefer to blaze my own trails as it were, and what I see right now is

one

person on all three of those wagons, with very little reasoning. Flagrantly bandwagoning as it were.

Vote: Someone

I know there are many others in this game who have been very quick to vote and unvote also, with just as little reasoning, but Someone is the only one with this particular distinction--at least as of yet.

[Axelrod]

I believe it is because she is at least posting, and giving reasons for her votes. (Whether you think they are good reasons is something else entirely...)

[Axelrod]

Couldn't they both be mafia? Obviously, bandwagoning is just one way to catch a scum, and on Day one it's far from reliable. PBug has been just as bad as Someone, however, and I wouldn't be adverse to throwing a vote that way, although I will refrain at the moment.

[Axelrod]

Darn it, I'm having real trouble with this. Olio and PBug are leading at five each with deadline imminent. Chances are that at least one of them

isn't

mafia, and I already thought PBug was not looking so great--definately worse than Olio, whose biggest mistake was arguing with Vesuvan (hint: don't try this at home, kids).

[Axelrod]

So I've been watching the last day here, and the rush of votes for PBug at the end (perhaps counter-intuitively) actually has me thinking he may not be mafia. Both were tied at five, so any vote either way could have made the difference. If Olio were mafia, I would expect some of his buddies to get on the other wagon to try to save him, whereas if PBug were mafia, I would have thought more votes would have gone to Olio. If neither were mafia, well, I would have expected the mafia to stay out of it completely--happy no matter what happened (note this could still be the case.)

PBug has Nine by my count, and I have no idea how much time is left (I'm U.S. Eastern time vs. GMT). There are legitimate points against both, nevertheless, I will register my opinion with a:

Unvote: Someone

Vote: Olio

[Axelrod]

Good morning all.

So Olio was targeted. That makes no sense for mafia, considering the votes he was getting yesterday. It doens't make a whole lot of sense for a SK role, either. A vig. hit, on the other hand, makes a certain amount of sense. That would mean that the mafia missed their kill, however, (and would bolster a no SK theory).

Time to look back at who voted for who and why. I will say that with Olio a townie, that means the top two vote getters were town when the deadline was approaching yesterday. Mafia might, therefore, have stayed out of it completely. My idea that we could look at who voted late, is pretty shot.

Thoughts?

EWP: PBug: I can't speak for everyone, but I don't read the vacation thread. If you want to say you will be away, you should post it in the game thread as far as I'm concerned. LmL found it and announced it, however, so people did know. But there was no time to let you defend yourself since we had a deadline. Sorry.

[Axelrod]

That's not why I'm voting for MeMe. I was semi making fun of Nanook for his "It possibly could have been another female" comment, since I really didn't see why it'd have to be a woman who did it.

I have my reasons for voting MeMe. Or at least I think I do.

Is there a reason not to elaborate on this? It doesn't

sound

like you are making a Cop claim here (due to the uncertainty and all), but I take it, you have

something

more than a hunch.

You posting history, as noted, has been relatively contentless up to this point, so you will understand why I don't leap to support your semi-accusation.

But I'm interested.

[Axelrod]

Mr. Stoofer has a point. Someone was the other person receiving a few votes yesterday, and he was bandwagoning quite a bit. But I'm hesitant to vote based only on that right now.

I feel better voting for someone who hasn't contributed much thus far (and has a shiny Best Serial Killer Tag to boot) who suddenly decides to pop in and vote for a person who appears to be making an effort, "based exclusively on guts" and says nothing else.

Vote: Leonidas

I hope your posting does get better.

[Axelrod]

@TSS: I'm impressed (though I will admit I didn't completely follow everything). Seems like a reasonable place to start today. And since DP wants more voting:

Unvote: Leonidas

Vote: Commodore Amazing

I still would like to see Leo post more. I thought he was a good player.

[Axelrod]

So I've been thinking a little more, and I've decided that it makes little sense for the mafia to pile on PBug at the end of the day when there was a deadline and the next closest vote getter was also town.

The people who voted PBug right at the end were: Commodore Amazing; EYNH; Nanook; and Saberkitty. This, initially, makes me less suspicious of all of them. But, we have to remember that, at the time, there was one other person with significant votes--Someone. Someone had four votes and was just one behind the others. He was still at risk of being the lynch. So mafia

might

have decided to push one of the other bandwagons to give him a little breathing room.

If Someone is scum, then there is an increased chance that Commodore Amazing, and perhaps EYNH are scum. But, if Someone is not scum, well, I can't see any mafia feeling the need to vote at all (or change their current vote). If Someone is not scum, then CA, EYNH, Nanook and Saberkitty all seem much clearer. If Someone is scum, then CA and EYNH look slightly worse (though it's hardly dispositive) and I

still

think that the mafia wouldn't have felt the need to vote any more (PBug had a 3 vote lead over Someone after EYNH voted with only about 20 hours to go.

So I guess I'm saying Nanook and Saberkitty look clearer to me regardless. And it only makes sense for CA and EYNH to possibly be mafia if Someone also is. To be fair, the same analysis suggests Peacebringer shouldn't be mafia, as he chimed in late with a vote for Olio, which was pointless if he was scum, and risky since Olio was innocent. (The same might be said of me, I suppose, but I'll let others be the judge of me).

This analysis, of course, doesn't take into account the possibility that the mafia played poorly and unnecessarily bandwagoned an innocent.

@Leonidas: I'm "helping" DP by getting on an actual bandwagon that might result in some useful information for the town, and might spur conversation, instead of doing my own thing. Although now I think CA is probably only mafia if Someone is also. And I haven't looked back to see if that's consistant with their earlier votes.

[Axelrod]

@Stoofer: you might want to go back and do that "proper read through" you were talking about before accusing me of voting without undetstanding, especially if you thing Someone is the most suspicious.

Still keeping the vote on Commodore for the time being (with the qualifications I mentioned my last post). I also don't like the way he immediately jumped off voting Nox as soon as he was challanged on it. Plus, as I said, if he

is

a mafia, I think there's a significantly higher probablilty that Someone is also.

[Axelrod]

I've never heard of the "junkie" role before, but seeing how it works (via DP11) I would say that is almost a slam-dunk in favor of PB right now. Either he's making an extraordinary bluff (because he saw the role), or he's town, and I don't see that being a bluff. I assume his lack of info. is because he probably chose to watch someone who didn't do much of anything, but it was actually smart of him not to say who at this point.

[Axelrod]

Wow. I can't believe I just read that. You think I only have two posts where I'm expressing my own opinion?

And you think I'm slipping under the radar?

I freely admit that the CA vote was more of a bandwagon vote than I usually make (and it's the

only

vote I have like that). The reason for that (which I thought I said, but some people either missed or are ignoring) was that DP said he wanted more voting, TSS had just put forward a good analysis which had CA as possible scum in several scenarios, and I thought that was as good a lead as any and worth following up on. So much for trying to appease the Mod.

And I

do

understand the point TSS was making. I also understand it was basically just a logical speculation. But I think CA's reaction to my vote was interesting, as were the reactions of several people who have now tried to cast suspicion on me.

Yes, I do tend to get defensive when people vote for me. Since I know I haven't done anything voteworthy, voting for me makes me suspicious. You should see what just happened to me in a game on MTGNews.

On the 'Mith" issue. At the risk of bringing up a theory that was roundly criticized the first time around (but at least it was my theory, right Vesuvan?), I'll say that, as someone who was actually in attendance at the Jeepfest, I would at least initially be less suspicious of that Role as a Scum role. I didn't even know that Mith was the owner of this site. That being the case, it also seems more likely to be a power role of some type, so if Roland knows who it is, he should definately keep quiet. (on no, I agreed with Vesuvan).

Sorry for the sarcasm. As I said, I just went through this kind of thing in another game. I get penalized for actually talking, when numerous others (Leonidas anyone?)

are

actually floating under the radar. But that's okay. I accept it.

[Axelrod]

Also,

Unvote: Commodore Amazing

I don't think I'll be following anyone else's lead anymore. I'm going to re-read the thread and I'll get back to you.

[Axelrod]

Okay, a few more thoughts: Fuldu, as far as your points go (1) What you are calling an "ad hominem" attack on Leonidas is just me pointing out that he is getting away with some serious lurking in this game. His last post was a week ago. And even when he posts, he isn't saying much of anything. And "baiting" as you put it, is what this game is all about. Or maybe you mean something different by the term. I certainly didn't mean to insult him, if that's what you thought. I sometime do resent it when people who don't post get away with it, while I--in trying to contribute-get attacked.

Why are you defending him anyway? You have done it more than once, to the point of even following his "based exclusively on guts" vote on Mr. Stoofer.

And (2) saying that there are other reasons that scum could have voted at the end of the day yesterday does not invalidate the analysis. You could make that same kind of argument about anything in this game. There are

always

other possible reasons that someome might or might not have taken an action. I'm just looking at one, the one I thought most reasonable at the time.

However, that said, there

is

a problem with my earlier argument (or, at least, there's another problem) In re-reading the thread, I have realized I used the wrong time-frame to really look at the votes. I looked at it when there was 5 each on PBug and Olio and 4 on Someone with 24 hour to go.

What is potentially more revealing, however, is where the votes were and how they went immediately after DP announced the deadline for the day, which was in post #147.

At

that

point, Someone, Saberkitty, Peacebringer, and Olio were all

tied

at three votes each (with Saberkitty's on the way down). PBug wasn't really even in the picture. So what happened?

After the deadline was announced, the first vote actually went to

Someone

--cast by Mr. Stoofer. Someone was then leading the vote (with Nanook, Myself, and PBug being the other voters). Then Nox, who was the only person voting PBug at the time, posts a PBPA on PBug that points out his questionable posts, and suddenly the votes all go flooding to PBug. Rolandof theWhite votes PBug with no comment. Same with MeMe. Same with The Shadow. Then Fuldu (though he, at least, puts some content behind it). So now PBug's very quickly up to five and leading.

At the risk of repeating myself, if Someone were a scum, then this quick rush of votes to PBug after deadline was announced suggests some mafia involvment to protect one of their own. Interestingly, CA (who figured in my other analysis) also posted around the same time,

defending

Someone, to say:

Bandwagoning is not such a bad thing day one, is it? I mean, as long as it doesn't go all the way to a claim, all the arguments/reactions do some good, doesn't it? Since when does bandwagoning=scum?

I whole-heartedly agree. Neither of our bandwagons went to claims, and both gave us some good information. I don't want to vote out Someone. If it comes between him and PBug, I will vote PBug.

So looking at it that way, leads me back to Someone, and the people quickest to jump for PBug--Rolandofthewhite, MeMe, and TheShadow. I note, however, that MeMe is voting Someone right now

Finally, because this is long, I think I had better clear up one thing that people have mentioned with respect to me, and their suspicious as to where my theories are coming from. Several have said they thought I was trying to set myself up to look better by my speculation that the people who actually attended the Jeepest were less likely to me mafia. That's really not the case, and just to make it perfectly clear--

my role is not a person who attended the Jeepfest

. The point I was making did not apply to me. The point could also be completely and totally wrong, as others have suggested, and I realize that. I was just throwing it out as a possibility, and certainly not trying to set myself up to "look" good.

But now consider RolandofthWhite. He seems to be claiming an information type role, getting names of Roles. Now, if there is no correletion between a person's role and mafianess (because anyone could be mafia, regardless of Role, regardless of whether they were at Jeepfest) then exactly what is the point of that information? That suggests to me that the Role names do mean

something

even if it's not what I'm speculating.

[Axelrod]

Sorry, Nox, didn't see your post in the middle of typing up my last "uber-long" one. Man, I'm tired. Roland is definately on my radar (see above) but I'm not quite ready to vote him yet.

[Axelrod]

Vote: Someone

Going on record. He appears to me to be a better choice than Nox.

[Axelrod]

My reasons for voting Someone have been stated clearly previously. He was bandwagoning everything in sight day 1 and his was the bandwagon that was leading the votes until a deadline was announced, when all the votes quickly went away from him towards others. He appears to be keeping a much lower profile this day.

I'll confess, when Commodore Amazing voted for him I was waivering, since Commodore had been defending him and I had suspected they might be in it together, but seeing Commodore hop off again as soon as a few votes accumulate and immediately after being questioned by Mr. Stoofer (which is the second time Commodore has fled from a vote like that) makes this the correct vote right now. As I have stated before, if Someone is a mafia, that would make Commodore my top suspect next.

[Axelrod]

That being said, I think the town would benifit from me more dead than alive. Knowing that I am townee, the voting patterns are very telling.

I don't know why I'm argueing against myself, but I really feel that I'm the better lynch today.

unvote, vote someone

What???

God, I'm confused. But I suppose I believe in a suicidal townie slightly more than I believe in a suicidal mafia. And he attended the Jeepfest (for whatever that's worth).

Unvote: Someone

I don't understand why you would prefer to die over another person who has claimed

basic

townie, even if you think they are innocent. It would seem your life is just as valuable as theirs, but I now doubt, so I unvote.

I really am at a loss, however, as I don't find Nox particularly scummy either, and most of my feeling against Commodore hinges on Someone also being a mafia. Time to re-think.

[Axelrod]

Here is the list I am aware of:

For the record, here are the people who came to the event in order of arrival:

JEEP, JEEPsWife and Willow were here, of course
Tally & Lump
Hey_Herb and Hey_Wife live in town, but swung by the house to get the car seat and hung out chatting for a while, so that counts as their arrival to the con.
Big_Kahunia
Coyote
IS, ISWife, The Onion, mith, and Cadmium
Groza528, PookyTheMagicalBear
mathcam and halfpint showed up for a few hours
Nonny
Samadhi, Mackay, and Pablo (Pablo only stayed for a couple hours)
FaerieFire and Boyfriend rolled in with MatthewV and CasinoPete
Hey_Kids were here too, but I don't remember when they first showed up.
On Thursday Yoko Kurama arrived. He was the last to arrive.

[Axelrod]

I apologize I haven't had time to concentrate on this game recently. I have had several things going on, and now I'm actually going on vacation. I'll be gone from 8-6-05 to 8-13-05 with possibly no internet access at all.

I don't have a strong feeling about anyone right now. In fact, I have a bad feeling the mafia may all be laying low out of the spotlight. So I am declining to vote, rather than just throw one out without serious justification.

Sorry again. I'll try to pick things up when I get back (assuming I am still around ).

[Axelrod]

Okay, I'm back. Very interesting turn of events at the end of the day yesterday, and during the night.

So much for the 'No SK" theory. That means Stoofer either chose not to kill Night 1, or got blocked in some way. Ditto Night 3. If someone did block him, nice work.

Here's who's left:

1. Someone - MatthewV
3. NanookTheWolf
4. MeMe
5. The Shadow
7. LoudmouthLee
9. Vesuvan
10. Fuldu
12. PeaceBringer - Hey_Herb
14. Leonidas
15. AxelRod
16. EnterYourNameHere
17. Commodore Amazing
18. the silent speaker
20. Nox - PolarBoy

Of this group the people who seem the "most" cleared to me, by action or by claim are:

1. Someone - self voting + timing of same + basic townie claim + Jeepfest
9. Vesuvan - indirect claim which would have been exceedingly tricky for a mafia to make. Not that he's not capable of this, but I believe him now.
12. PeaceBringer - Claim + Jeepfest
18. the silent speaker - play. I can't believe post #235 was written by a mafia. I just can't. Sue me.
20. Nox - believable (to me) basic townie claim. This is the least strong feeling out of this group, however.

That leaves:

3. NanookTheWolf
4. MeMe
5. The Shadow
7. LoudmouthLee
10. Fuldu
14. Leonidas
16. EnterYourNameHere
17. Commodore Amazing

(I'm taking myself out, but you obviously don't have to)

There may be as many as 5 mafia in this group.

The "Lurkiest" = The Shadow; Leonidas; EnterYourNameHere. Of these I was most critical of Leonidas, but now I'm not sure. I now put him below those other two.

So, in no particular order:

Commodore Amazing (his vote on TSS is not looking good right now, and his wild voting at the end of the past day is suspect.)
The Shadow (I can't remember anything of substance he has said)
EnterYourNameHere (equally non-committal)
MeMe (lots of posts, less substance? I do see one possible reason to put her below the others in terms of suspicion, however.)
LoudmouthLee (rubbing me the wrong way right now)
Fuldu (hard to read. Very deliberate. Very critical or others. Trusts Leonidas?)
Nanook (I don't see anything striking me as especially suspicious. But obviously nothing that "clears" him either)
Leonidas (his "guts" were right. Was it just luck?)

LoudmouthLee and MeMe were also at the forefront of the deadline lynch SaberKitty wagon. This in and of itself may not mean much, as the other choice - Stoofer - was not a mafia, and therefore they would not have had a reason to "protect" him. But if the mafia had a way to identify power roles....

Vote: LoudmouthLee

for now.

I'll go back and possibly to a PBPA later to see if I can identify what's rubbing me the wrong way about him. In the meantime I'll also give the

FOS: to Commodore Amazing, Shadow, and EnterYourNameHere.

[Axelrod]

Heh. So much for the theory that Leonidas has some kind of inside information. I'm also amused LmL is accusing me of "CrapLogic" when I have not, in fact, set out the logic behind my vote yet, but that's neither here or there.

@Fuldu: you keep misinterpreting my posts, which is becomming more an more suspicious. If you think I'm fishing for information, then why

wouldn't

I mention the missing mafia kill? It appears you are, on the one hand, suspicious because I mention Stoofer's missing kills (fishing), but, on the other hand, also suspicious because I

don't

mention the missing mafia kill (um, not fishing?). Which sounds to me like you are just criticizing whatever I say.

In point of fact, I suspect a role-block of Stoofer, as opposed to some kind of Doc. protect. He would have been a logical target for this considering the votes yesterday.

Then you misinterpret my post to say I'm suspecting two people, and imply I'm trying to "protect" MeMe--which is flatly wrong. I'm looking at

eight

people right now, one of which is you, another is MeMe, all of whom are not cleared in my mind. The Saberkitty bandwagon remark was not meant to suggest that LmL and MeMe are the "top" two suspects, it was just something I was noting.

Still putting together the LmL case. (But I'll just note for the moment that he now appears to be going on another "lurker" hunt again, despite the repeated failure of this method to find scum thus far--which is an easy argument for a scum to make).

[Axelrod]

Actually, I can think of a reason for Leonidas' votes going the way they have, without him being a Cop (and it doesn't make sense for him to be a Cop as Stoofer was "immune" to Cops). But if I'm right, there's not a whole lot I can do about it. He would then be making a logical guess based on the evidence he has. He happens to be wrong in my case, but it would not be a malicious error. That would be unfortunate if it turns out to be what happened.

[Axelrod]

Since I said I would, here's what I got on LmL. I actually did a full PBPA, but it was way, way long (yes, longer than this). These are the highlights more or less:

Vote: Axelrod

First day killing speculations never sit well with me.

Bah. First double post.

There could still easily be an SK, no? Lucky doc protect? Roleblocker catching lightning in a bottle?

First two posts. Not much to see here. He jumps on me for "speculating" (which is more or less meaningless) and then immediately speculates (to show that

my

speculation could be wrong?) Which is silly since I was just speculating anyway, and it was obvious that no one really knew what happened yet. A bit serious for this early in the game?

Maybe I was just making a mountain out of a mohill. Who knows.

This is after a few people (Fuldu, TSS) have questioned him about his comments towards me. LmL seems quick to back down.

I will, as well, Unvote: Axelrod and Vote: Vesuvan.

I'm still very wary of Axelrod, however, due to posts prought up in the thread and overall scummy behaviour, I believe this vote is safe.

Reminder: My vote is #8 - This may be a stellar time for a claim.

Not vote #8. Actually #9 (DP error).

Jumps #9 on the Vesuvan wagon (although the vote count was wrong and he could, in fact, have thought it was

only

#8.) Doesn't justify the Vesuvan vote at all beyond simple bandwaggoning. Also makes a point to say he still thinks I am scummy.

Wow. I'm a bit shocked at the speed that this bandwagon is shifting. Just a few points to think about:

• Full props to Vesuvan for his cool-headed play. However, the speed that people unvoted without asking for more info makes me believe that there is a possibility that a few scum could have been on a bandwagon of one of their own, and jumped off after his "I'm really not gonna claim" response. Again, I have no proof of this, just throwing it out there fir you all to think about as a possibility.

• The SK bandwagon has gained speed VERY quickly, which makes me believe that the scum has jumped on. SK has deserved votes based on her action and the "ninth vote facade" after not really showing the rest of day one. However, the relative speed of the formation of this bandwagon is a bit unsettleing.

• As of right now, I'm only going to Unvote: Vesuvan vut in turn I have to keep an eye on him. I will also FoS: SaberKitty for reasons stated above, but as well, FoS: Peacebringer for seeming to be Mr. Bandwagon-starter / jumper.

Here's where is starts to get more interesting. Jumps off of Vesuvan wagon as it loses steam, but tries to keep the suspicion on him (IGMEOY), saying that the people who jumped off first could have been scum trying to protect a fellow scum. Says Saberkitty "deserved" votes, which could be seen as encouraging the wagon, but does not vote Saberkitty himself, instead "FOSing".

I'm going to Vote: Olio on the pure strength of Vesuvan's statements.

The quote I find most damning is...

It's not about a townie being bandwagonned period, and the fact you're trying to make it so looks like you're trying to make it appear that I'm making an argument that I'm not. Further, despite my offer to discuss the strategy in principle elsewhere, you're carrying it on here. My only conclusion from this is that you're trying to make me look like scum because of my refusal to claim, and as I previously stated, that increases my suspicion that you are scum.

If a townie, power role or otherwise, is under a bandwagon for weak reasoning, claiming should not be the answer to get the bandwagon off them. Claiming should be a last resort, whether for a vanilla townie or a power role.

You're absolutely right, and I believe an Olio bandwagon sounds about right now.

Woah. So in the span of three posts, he has gone from Voting for Vesuvan (when the bandwagon is hot); to Unvoting while FOSing (when the bandwagon has lost it's steam); to Voting

someone else

(now a known townie) "on the pure strength of Vesuvan's statements." Whence comes this great turnaround? Besides the fact that he's following bandwagons. This is probably the most suspicious sequence of posts he has made.

PBug should get his butt back to the thread to see he's about to be lynched. I'm not going to ask the mod to prod him when he, himself, has abandoned this game. It's bothersome.

Here's the deal. PBug's at 9 votes. Time for me to see if he's posted anywhere on the site since he his last post. Be back in a few minutes.

Here he appears to be pushing the PBug wagon without actually voting, by emphazising the "lurking."

Well, he has posted in the V/LA thread saying he was gonna be gone for a week and will be back on Monday.

But, in his defense, he also immediately posts that PBug has said he will be away.

I wouldn't... but I'm curious to know why you asked.

Roland has just asked if we would consider "Mith" to be a scummy rolename. This sounds a bit like fishing. On the other hand, it was fairly obvious to me what Roland was saying here. LmL is smart, does he really not get it? If he

does

get it, what was the point of this question.

There was not much to go on this game... but now, I feel we can create a viable bandwagon here.

Unvote: Nox, Vote: Someone

TSS is at least posting and trying to get things going in a positive way. By the quotew you just made, you're trying to dissuade anyone listening to TSS's reasoning and the such. There are two differing possibilities for this, being that you're scum....

1) You're scum, trying to get people away from Axelrod's bandwagon.
2) You're scum, trying to distance yourself from this bandwagon so you can say "HA! I wasn't on that innocent's bandwagon!"

As of this exact moment, I am more sure of a Someone lynch that a Axelrod lynch. Just me. If someone gives me a reason to change my vote / unvote, i'll let you know

Jumps 4th on the Someone wagon.

First - Stoofer, my assumptions were on the inkling that Someone is scum. However, more on this will be elaborated on later in this post.

Secondly - I'm somewhat questioning the Someone bandwagon at this point, mainly for the quote listed below:
Commodore Amazing wrote:
unvote: Axelrod, vote: Someone to keep it close at 5 and 5.


Ugh. Can another player call me paranoid now? This post REALLY bothered me, and I hope it bothers everyone else too.

Incredible FoS: Commodore Amazing AND Nox

I mean, seriously. Why would someone justify a MAJOR vote like that (to even the score WHILE WE ARE APPROACHING DEADLINE. At this point in time, I do not have DP's ruleset in front of me, but I have played in games in which a tie vote as such leads to a no lynch and ultimately bad news for the town.

If Someone comes up innocent, I will find this post to be incredibly suspect and incredibly difficult to comprehend. Could it be that both Commodore and Nox are scum together?

I think I just may be a little bit paranoid right now. Quite a possibility. However, we're late in the day and we don't have the time to start a Commodore bandwagon again.

Moral of this longwinded post? If need be, I'll be happy to switch my vote to Nox before the deadline, unless the townies (more than a few) tell me i'm being paranoid

There's nothing obviously wrong with this. Commodore's vote was somewhat suspicious, as was the way Commodore was jumping from one player to the other at the end of the day.

Seems happy with either a Someone or a Nox lynch at this point.

Someone, gimme some MS history...

Is Polarbear even around now? Never seen his name before.

Subtly questioning Nox's claim? While at the same time keeping the vote on Someone after Someone has already self-voted and the wagon on him is fading.

Since our Mod is DP, I might as well start by saying the following:

Quote:
If you are bandwagoned and a plain townie, bite the bullet. The contitunal claiming only gives the mafia more info about the setup.


After much consideration, i'm going to Unvote: Someone and Vote: Saberkitty with a dash of FoS: Nox

With that, I'm concerned about the following:

1) Saberkitty's absense... especially while she got out of a bandwagon by claiming that OTHERS were not posting.

2) Nox, Someone, Vesuvan... At this point in time, the one claim that doesn't sit well with me is Polarboy... being originally from the GL, I know that majority of the people who would be in this variant. On my list of 30, Polarboy was nowhere in sight.

Here he begins the wagon on Saberkitty, based, it appears, strictly on lurking and hypocrisy because she previously criticized lurkers.

Sorry if i'm a little cynical.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/profile. ... file&u=288

Less than 400 posts? I see he has a sticky topic in one of the forums, but other than that, I can't see why h was included in the setup.

Still appears to be questioning the PolarBoy claim here.

I'll reiterate, and TSS, I think you'll understand this the most.

SaberKitty (the player, not the possible role) has been absent today. Lurkers, in general, hurt the town far more than anything else. At this exact point in time, unless Leo is hinting at "cop", I would go with a SaberKitty lynch over a Stoofer lynch.

However, if Leo's a bit more... explicit.. with his theory, then I'd be willing to change my vote.

I'm not asking you to claim, Leo, I'm just asking for some justification.

He's not asking for a "claim." But wants something more "explicit." And a justification. Ah, I see. I also think he's wrong when he says that lurkers hurt the town "far more than anything else" but that's debatable.

My vote on SaberKitty was the first vote. I didn't feel comfortable with either the Someone or the Nox lynch. I don't see exactly how THAT makes me scummy. Saberkitty was a lurker, and I'm not fond of lurkers. With that, I'm going to FoS: Axelrod for his incredible crap logic there. I wasn't trying to start a bandwagon, instead, I was putting my vote in a place that I thought it was worth. I guess I was wrong.

With that in mind, I'm going to continue my lurker hunt, a la TSS, and Vote: EnterYourNameHere At this point in time, he has not contributed anythimg towards the thread. If he shows up and contributes, or new info comes to light, I will be happy to change my vote, though.

Since when didn't he "feel comfortable" with either Someone or Nox? He was still questioning Nox's claim well after he voted Saberkitty.

He then continues the "lurker" hunt, despite the poor results of the last one. Which is not to say that EYNH doesn't deserve a good hard look, but at this point, one should do it based on the posts already made as opposed to the lack of recent posts.

I fully recognize that these PBPA's can be interpreted many different ways, and that when you go into one looking for evidence you are more likely to convince yourself that you have found it. But I don't like his bandwagoning. I

really

don't like the way his position on Vesuvan flip-flopped so dramatically as the bandwagon failed, to the point that he proceeded to "hide" behind Vesuvan, flattering the strength of his arguments as he got on his next bandwagon.

Now I don't like the way he is targeting lurkers, which is a very easy thing for scum to do, and also to justify, without having to worry about risking a conflict with a member of the town.

So that's why my vote is where it is right now. That plus he's in the more suspicious group I listed earlier.

Fuldu, I'm really getting tired of explaining myself, but since you continuously misunderstand or misstate: I made that list of the eight most "suspicious" by

eliminating

the least suspicious. Not by trying to put forward any kind of comprehensive case against any of them. I thought that was clear. Criticizing me for giving "very little" basis for my suspicion is therefore simply meaningless. Do you disagree with my list of the "most" clear. If you don't, then you implicitly agree with what I am saying (except you put me on the list too, which is your perogative.) If you think someone I am listing as more clear really isn't, then you should say

that

. Nothing helps the town like taking a stand.

[Axelrod]

Apparantly I can't win no matter what I say, but never let it be said that I didn't keep plugging away.

Do you not see the difference that I'm trying to point to? You have a list of eight people for whom you feel greater suspicion but regarding whom you have little concrete evidence to present. You then immediately follow that up with a single concrete argument against two of them. To my mind, that clearly implies a greater degree of suspicion regarding those two, or at least it ought to. The comment I made about having very little basis for your suspicion was not a criticism so much as it was an attempt at a comparison between what you were saying about the eight and what you were saying about the two. I will admit to having criticized the quality of the second argument, since it basically relies on Mafia both knowing the identity of the SK and having some reason to protect him.

Yes, I see the difference. But that really is a case of making a mountain out of a molehill. I do have a somewhat higher degree of suspicion on LmL, and I

tried

to explain why. The remark about "if the scum have a way to identify power roles..." was just a thought. Possibly relevant later if we get more information, but not something to base any kind of case on today.

On the other hand, when you make a post saying I posted a list of "suspicious" people with "very little basis" I feel justified responding to that because it misrepresents what I was doing. For you to say you didn't

mean

it as a criticism, but were just making a comparison, is shady. You also didn't answer my question as to whether you agreed with the list or not.

But more tellingly, the argument you've chosen to respond to is the one that I explicitly said didn't contribute to my opinion of you as scum. It's an argument about linkages, which only means something if we have additional information about one of the players being linked. I think you're scum because of the way you're fishing for information. All of what you've responded to in the quoted paragraph is about the highly secondary question of whether MeMe is scum with you.

I responded to that to. I wish you would be more precise where you think "I'm fishing" if it's more than just the post about Stoofer possibly being role-blocked. I tend to speculate. That's how I am.

The problem I have with axelrod's latest humungo-post, is that there is no real point to it. The posts you outlined are very much typical LmL behaviour.

If you're going to quote all the posts of a player, it should be so you can show us something more concrete. Targetting lurkers and hopping a couple bandwagons are very much part of the game, and if you're going to suspect people for it, you might as well lynch the whole town.

I'll give you that you did point out a couple of things that were interesting in that post, but overall your analysis was not extrememly convincing to me.

The "point" was to provide a basis for the vote, which I hadn't really done yet. You may not think it's a very good basis, and you are certainly entitled to feel that way, but that's what I'm doing. I have no idea what is typical LmL behavior, having never played with him before.

The post may have been a bit of overkill, but I didn't want to be accused of misrepresenting anything (notice how that didn't work). And please, this is my opinion--please don't say I'm misrepresenting when I'm giving an opinion. If it makes you feel better, put an "I believe" or an "I think" at the beginning of each statement, I thought that was implied.

Obviously there's nothing totally "concrete" against anybody yet, or we would be lynching that person, I imagine. LmL is a good candidate to pressure, in my opinion. He's not the only one, but he's escaped serious attention thus far.

[Axelrod]

Um, Peacebringer just has one vision to share unless I am totally off base here. He didn't trip night one. Night 2 he got a vision of EYNH, and could only post one time day 2. Last night, he didn't trip again so he would be able to post normally today.

As to whether he should say what the vision was all about, it's hard to say without knowing what it is. But if we think the visions are supposed to hint at scum/non-scum status (which seems the most likely thing--anyone else ever experienced this role before?), then he has

probably

said enough, unless he thinks there is any possibility he is missing something.

This is especially true if he thinks he got a hint as to EYNH's role-name or ability. That's nothing he needs to share at this point I don't think.

[Axelrod]

axel, I have no idea what the images mean but I would hate to say anything that could help scum. There was nothing of a scummy nature in the vision but I have no idea how DP's mind works and what the images might mean.

That's what I said. (At least, that's what I meant). If you think there is a chance that this information will help the mafia, then I don't think there is a compelling reason to say it right now.

[Axelrod]

Okay, this is now officially serious. I have just spent quite a bit of time going over all CA's posts from day one to see if there is anything inconsistent with what he is now claiming. What I have observed is

a lot

of scummy sounding remarks and votes, but nothing that directly contradicts this claim. On the other hand, there is

nothing

in his day 1 or day 2 posts which supports this claim either. No hints, no seemingly random remarks which, viewed in light of his claim, now make sense. Nothing.

I am capable of doing a full PBPA on him to point out these things, but seeing as it would be incredibly long, and seeing how well my last one went over, I'm not sure it would be worth the effort. But I will if people request it.

A few points, however:

(1) CA is voting me based on Leonidas' vote. He has been very clear about this. He says he trusts Leonidas because Leonidas voted for Mr. Stoofer. This is just bunk. We know for a fact that Leonidas' vote was not based on any kind of Cop investigation. CA then puts out a

theory

, completely unverified by Leo himself, that Leonidas

might

be a role-blocker who blocked Mr. Stoofer and myself on alternating nights, blocking kills every time. That is, to say the least, extremely unlikely.

If Leo. blocked Stoofer Night 1 (it has to be Stoofer under this theory, yes?), and suspected a missing kill, it would seem he would have voted for him at some point, right? Even if only "randomly." He didn't. His first vote of the day was Olio. Pretty much didn't say anything about Stoofer.

Then, why would Leo. switch his role-block night 2 if he thought he stopped a kill night 1? Ignoring that, assuming he

did

put a block on me, and

again

noted what appeared to be a missing kill, why not vote for me? He didn't. He voted for

Mr. Stoofer

that day. How exactly does he go from role-blocking me to voting for Stoofer (under this theory). Also, interesting to note that Leo.

didn't

vote for Stoofer in his first post of the day. He waited until after Stoofer posted to vote him. And

said

it was based exclusively on guts. This made it appear like he just didn't like the way Stoofer was posting (which is entirely possible).

Then, CA is assuming Leo. went

back

to Stoofer last night. Why? I just don't see the logic. You, on the other hand are using 20/20 hindsight here. You have taken a set of facts and constructed a theory to fit them. Despite the fact that the actions required of Leo. under this theory do not make logical sense, nor do they jibe with his votes. (Plus, that would be freakishly lucky of him, wouldn't it? Not just hitting the SK, that's possible, but then switching and hitting a mafia, and specifically hitting the mafia who did the kill, and then, deciding (correctly) to switch back to the SK.)

If it was Leo out there stating that this was actually what he did, that would be one thing. You would at least then have a some basis for the vote (it would still be wrong, however). But what you are doing--inferring a role for Leo based on little evidence and then speculating on what he might have done, and then pushing extrememly hard for my lynch based solely on that

evidence

, is very, very scummy.

(2) How exactly does this claim "clear" you? You stated earlier that you had a claim that could be confirmed by

many

people as being a GG. Who? I thought you were going to claim Mason or something. You are taking responsibility for killing a SK. Not a mafia. Exactly how does that prove you are not a mafia? It's not just the claim here that's the problem, it's the way you are making it--overstating it's strength, and then trying to put the bull rush on me,

repeatedly

. That feels like a semi-desperate mafia at a deadline.

Considering the circumstances, however, I feel like I should now claim, though I wish I didn't have to. I'm Antrax. I'm NOT a vanilla townie. I HAVE hinted at my role, and can easily point out where.

Deadline is rapidly approaching and lynching me would be bad. I will post more later about problems I have with Commodore. Meanwhile, Leo could help to clear some of this up (even though he is voting for me), if he would just make an appearance.

[Axelrod]

Indifference reigns.

Okay, here it is. This is all I have left to offer. From Day 1:

D

arn it, I'm having real trouble with this.

O

lio and PBug are leading at five each with deadline imminent.

C

hances are that at least one of them

isn't

mafia, and I already thought PBug was not looking so great--definately worse than Olio, whose biggest mistake was arguing with Vesuvan (hint: don't try this at home, kids).

I am another Doc. I have been protecting the Silent Speaker from Day 1, and I kept protecting him because there kept only being one kill, and I believed he was town. The lack of kills makes me believe that someone (could be mafia, could have been the SK) has tried to kill him at least once. That was another reason I believed him to be less suspicious which I couldn't exactly say earlier.

Without doing a full-out PBPA, I'll just say that (aside from LmL) CA is my best suspect. His claim is difficult to disprove without a Cop investigation, however. I hope that if I am lynched, attention will finally turn his way.

Unvote, Vote: Commodore Amazing

I'm not sure I can be saved at this point as the 4 people voting for me appear to be a fairly solid block right now. And two others would have to vote CA, and I don't really see that happening. Though if

one

person voted CA, putting us into a tie (which I still lose because I got to 4 first), it might make the mafia nervous enough to place additional votes, which might be good to look at later. Of course there is still the chance he is town as well, in which case the mafia are having themselves quite a nice chuckle right about now.

If not, I apologize for obviously poor play getting me and the town in this position. Everything I have done has been with the best intentions.

I will be back on tonight, but might not be able to post tomorrow before the deadline hits, so if there's anything else you want to know, ask now.

[Axelrod]

[double post deleted - DP]

[Axelrod]

I don't know what to say to that. I suppose I could say that I deliberately didn't do it in my first post because first posts get scrutinized more and I didn't want to mafia to discover it. But the truth is I didn't think of it until later. It

was

Day One and I wasn't under any particular suspicion, so I don't see why you'd say I came to the conclusion at that point that I would need a claim later.

But anyway, I fully realize that post doesn't prove anything, as mafia are quite capable of posting false claims and/or hints. The only thing it "proves" is that I staked a claim day one, before any other roles were known/revealed.

[Axelrod]

Wow. That's incredible. I really can't believe that happened. I fully realize it's too much to expect anyone to believe that's a coincidence. I have just shot the town in it's collective foot. Now anyone can vote for me with no reprecusions at all, and even when I am shown to be town, no one can be blamed. This is really bad.

My final thought then is this. If I am to die (which I understand), let CA do it tonight. By vigging me tonight he proves his ability (unless the mafia decides to skip the kill to try and "frame" him, which they wouldn't do, and even if they did, it's one less town death.) I would also get a last shot protection out of the deal, unlikely as it would be to do any good. There's not too much downside that I see, unless you believe I have some special ability which I would be able to use to benefit the mafia before I die. I haven't seen any evidence of mafia abilities yet, but I know it's possible.

Unvote, Vote: No Lynch

Sorry guys.

What makes Antrax not a likely Doc anyway? I have no idea who he is.

[Axelrod]

Curses! So close.

But for TSS Cop Claiming, I think the rest of the mafia could have pulled it off. And, of course, but for Fuldu for blocking the kill on TSS night 2, he wouldn't have been around to claim. And despite that, I think there actually was one 5 minute window after TSS claimed where we could have still won, after Leo voted for him, had inhim happened to be online at the exact right moment. Sigh.

Props to Leo for leading the town to victory at the end, and MeMe for fighting the good fight all the way through. Slops to me for being the first one to go. I tried to make my death serve some purpose, but it wasn't enough.

Thanks to DP for an enjoyable game.

[Axelrod]

So now to the question: who thought of the sacrifice of Axelrod? Had you prepared the false clues for just such an occasion? Or did MeMe just jump on the opportunity?

I planted the conflicting claims on my own on day 1 and told the rest of the mafia about them the following night, the idea being they could use them against me if the right situation arose. MeMe picked an opportune time and ran with it very well.

I had an idea for an even more elaborate gambit which the other mafia shot down. It may, in fact, not have been a good idea, but I might convince some other mafia to try it another game.