Perfectionist Mafia - Resultas

[elvis_knits]

Well his jump to suave wagon was horrible, so tha's wha tI was mainly going off. I disagree with reck that nobody has been standout scummy. I think a lot of people have.

I'm still undecided about SW. Do you thin kwe should just lynch her? I'm only wondering if she can be cured. Because I don't think she's a cop.

[Max]

@Mod: If there is a Sigmund Freud role, can they cure the SK, or just get an investigation result?

Just an investigation result.

[Max]

Four Votes:
Snow White (manho, Snow White, FaerieLord, Mufasa)
Sposh (EtherealCookie, saberwolf, xRECKONERx, elvis_knits)

Two Votes
MrSuave: (dramonic, Sposh)
Dramonic (MrSuave, AlmightyBob)

One Vote:
xRECKONERx: (Sanjay)
manho (Santos)

8 To Lynch

And you have 6 days.

[elvis_knits]

@Mod: If there is a Sigmund Freud role, can they cure the SK, or just get an investigation result?

Just an investigation result.

Just an investigation result?

Pfft.

vote snow white

Only reason not to kill her is if she could be cured and be converted to town.

[almightybob]

Thanks mod.

So, no cure. I agree with you, SW's cop claim is clearly inaccurate. Considering the prediction element is a huge part of the cop's role, I don't buy that she just forgot about it or neglected to mention it.

Given that her claim doesn't stand up to scrutiny, she must then be either scum or SK. And I agree, the counterclaim doesn't seem at all a viable plan between scumbuddies. So she may well be the SK.

Since we know the SK killed wickedestjr, I'm off to see if he incurred SW's wrath in D1.

If we're right and SW is the SK, I think we should lynch her today. The potential for cross-killing between SK and scum isn't worth as much as the extra lynches it would buy us to have the SK out of the game and reduce the number of NKs.

[Sposh]

There is certainly a SK because I am Sigmund Freud.

I thought it'd be a good time to claim, since all I can do is investigate the vig and SK, and I already used my investigation on Mufasa and got it wrong on N1 so now I'm powerless.

But at least we know there is a SK!

[almightybob]

Mkay, I just did a quick ISO read of Wickedestjr's posts.

He put some pressure on SW early in the day, backed off and shuffled around a bit onto other wagons, moved back to SW and then really turned up the heat after she claimed.

From his Post 450, straight after the claim, it's obvious he doesn't buy it. He analyses, scrutinizes, and asks lots of questions, poking and prodding. He explicitly says he doesn't believe SW's claim. Over his next few posts (especially 485) he doesn't let up at all.

From SK-SW's point of view during D1 (and especially towards the end), killing Wickedestjr is the only sensible choice. He's clearly not buying her fakeclaim, and several players have commented that they find him Town so a D2 case on her will be given great consideration.
Bear in mind, the SK must submit their kill choice during the Day phase. This means that SK-SW wouldn't know she had been counterclaimed by the Godfather. If she assumed she was CCed by the real cop, she would want to eliminate the loudest voice against her to give her a chance the next day. On D1, the most tenacious of her detractors was undoubtedly wickedestjr.

Unvote, vote: SW

[almightybob]

There is certainly a SK because I am Sigmund Freud.

I thought it'd be a good time to claim, since all I can do is investigate the vig and SK, and

I already used my investigation on Mufasa and got it wrong on N1 so now I'm powerless.

But at least we know there is a SK!

We already knew there was an SK, wickedestjr could only have been killed by an SK. No other role can kill in Twilight.

Regarding the bold: we already know Mufasa is the vig. If you had investigated him, you would have got a guilty result. You're lying.

Unbelievably huge HoS: Sposh

[elvis_knits]

First 10 pages read:

Looking at the beginning of the game, so far I think dram and saberwolf are the biggest potential BC buddies, since dram was the first person that didn't vote BC on page 1, and he voted SW (who started the BC wagon).

saberwolf on page 3 voted SW on the thinking "competing bandwagons are good for town" AKA, he wanted to take the heat off BC.

my vote was to see if any reactions occured. Also, if you happen to be scum and I start to tilt the BW your way, then it would be interesting to note what happens if the opposing BW is a scum or town one, and what scum do to prevent their member from being lynched. If I feel you are town or don't think the BW is worth pursuing, I can always take my vote off later.

Notice how he specifically mentions the competing bandwagon (BC) might be scum??

---

Sanjay's 90 sounds like town with respect to his comments on BC

BloodCovenent is of interest to me. He invites a wagon on himself and then casts huge suspicion on everyone that joins him. It's like he doesn't get his own joke. I guess that could have been his plan all along (be bait and see who bites), but it seems like bad town play. I know it is often wrong to equate bad town play with scumminess, but I do get a sort of scum vibe from BloodCovenent's play so far.

Sanjay finished the post with a vote on BC.

Later though he asks mufasa why he voted BC and why he's keeping his vote on him. Which is a little odd.

I feel mostly protown on sanjay though

---

MrSuave104, he "random" votes sanjay. Game was way past random and sanjay already looked town, so this was crap. (I realize this conflicts with my earlier read of suave as town since today's wagon on him was based on misinformation... so I am not sure on him now and thinks he needs a more thorough look).

---

Personally I like BC's post (although I wasn't one of the voters, so I'm not exactly targetted XD)

Sticking up for BCscum.

---

Nook votes solemnJ.
SolemnJ tells nook to STFU
Page8 - suave and then dram join the solemnJwagon
Sanjay asks why they're targetting solemn when there is more than one lurker (protown from sanjay)

---

Octopus votes SW, gives no reasons

[elvis_knits]

There is certainly a SK because I am Sigmund Freud.

I thought it'd be a good time to claim, since all I can do is investigate the vig and SK, and

I already used my investigation on Mufasa and got it wrong on N1 so now I'm powerless.

But at least we know there is a SK!

We already knew there was an SK, wickedestjr could only have been killed by an SK. No other role can kill in Twilight.

Regarding the bold: we already know Mufasa is the vig. If you had investigated him, you would have got a guilty result. You're lying.

Unbelievably huge HoS: Sposh

Yeah... Sposh has got to be scum.

The Freud role gets guilty on SK or Vig.

[almightybob]

Quick thought - if there is a real Sigmund Freud out there:

do not counterclaim

. We already know Sposh is fakeclaiming, there's no point in you giving yourself away.

[almightybob]

So, today's lynch: Probably-SK-Snow White or guaranteed-liar-scum Sposh?


Recap on why Mufasa is definitely the vig (there's bound to be someone in this Town who was going to ask):

There is definitely a vig in the game, owing to the number of night kills.
Nobody counterclaimed Mufasa's vig claim.
There is absolutely no reason for the real vig not to counterclaim Mufasa if they know he's lying, since they've lost their ability anyway by killing Town.

Given those 3 facts, Mufasa is definitely our vig.

And if Mufasa is our vig, then Sposh must be lying with his Freud claim. Therefore he is scum. QED.



This was another rash scum claim. BC's was bad enough, I don't know what they're playing at. Certainly makes our jobs much easier though.

So:

Pros and cons of lynching Snow White today

+ her claim doesn't stand up to scrutiny. The prediction element of the role would surely be uppermost in any cop's mind
+ she looks a very likely SK, especially looking back on her interactions with Wicked
+ lynching the SK would reduce the number of nightkills, which would give us more time
- the case isn't as rock-solid as the one on Sposh

Pros and cons of lynching Sposh today

+ he's a guaranteed scum lynch
+ he could be the Redirector, which would mean his death would give our own PRs more peace of mind tonight when using their own abilities
+ lynching him would give our real Sigmund Freud (if there is one) the chance to confirm SW's role tonight, which they could then claim with on D3
- killing him wouldn't reduce the number of NKs against us, whereas killing the SK would


Thoughts?

[elvis_knits]

I agree, Sposh is more a guaranteed scum lynch.

But SW is pretty close to guaranteed and she's prob SK and would reduce NKs.

Potential benefit is greater with SW, but Sposh is a sure thing.

[FaerieLord]

Yes, you have. I don't think I've seen you give any good reasons though, other than "I'm unconvinced".
I was fairly happy that SW was Town until dramonic highlighted that she didn't seem to know she had to predict her results. Since this is clearly the first time you've realised it too, I don't see your basis for wanting her dead all this time. I've been looking for any case in your posts, and all I see is stuff like "I was pretty sure SW was scum on D1" but with hardly any reasons.

If you're looking for reasons then give up on those.
The reasons are simply character tells and gut. They're not mistakes (like the one dramonic pointed out)
Reasons, that aren't slips, only help scum adapt their playstyle to stop looking scummy

I'll answer the questions

1. Wickedjster, followed by Sanjay at that point (actually there was lowell before both, but then I read I'd be replacing lowell as I was doing my reread)
2. It was never bussing. How many times do I have to say that I only lynched BC to lynch SW the next day?
3. Yeah, pity you were the only one that got it.

Regarding current affair, I'd still rather wait to see Sposh answer to this.

[almightybob]

If you're looking for reasons then give up on those.
The reasons are simply character tells and gut. They're not mistakes (like the one dramonic pointed out)
Reasons, that aren't slips, only help scum adapt their playstyle to stop looking scummy

The problem with this is it gives you impunity to vote for whoever you like, whenever you like, and never justify it. All you have to say is "I don't give reasons, that only helps the scum adapt".

Wickedjster, followed by Sanjay at that point (actually there was lowell before both, but then I read I'd be replacing lowell as I was doing my reread)

This is strange. I thought Wicked and Sanjay were both pretty pro-Town on D1. I can't remember exactly when you replaced in though, so perhaps circumstances were different at the point in time. Still, odd.


Anyway, your answers aren't the most satisfying, but you've just been eclipsed in scumminess, so I won't pursue this any further today.

Regarding current affair, I'd still rather wait to see Sposh answer to this.

Me too, if only to see how he tries to wriggle out of this.

[FaerieLord]

The problem with this is it gives you impunity to vote for whoever you like, whenever you like, and never justify it. All you have to say is "I don't give reasons, that only helps the scum adapt".

Anyone can do this, reasons or not. Some just hide it behind walls of text.

This is strange. I thought Wicked and Sanjay were both pretty pro-Town on D1. I can't remember exactly when you replaced in though, so perhaps circumstances were different at the point in time. Still, odd.

I only thought three peeps were pro town, which I still hold to.

[Sanjay]

I'm not really sure about Snow White being the SK. I'm still kind of nursing my pet theory that she's a traitor what with her being so unwilling to vote BloodCovenent (for what it is worth, she did say she believed in two cops before BC claimed, so I guess it's not

as

good of a case). But if you are supposing she isn't because SW bussed BC, you are thinking of some other Snow White. I believe she ended the day with her vote on Deuxieme Octopus or something weird like that.

I definitely agree that a wickedjestr kill would benefit Snow White given the positions wickedjestr had, but I think, almightybob, that you are overstating how good this evidence is. wickedjestr had a whole bunch of opinions and suspicions, and besides that he struck me as a relatively good scumhunter, an active player, and I don't remember too many people expressing strong suspicion of him. All that makes him a good target to a whole lot of people, which makes wickedjestr's death suggest Snow White is the SK less to me.

She definitely could be the SK. I'm somewhat less inclined to think she's a cop since post 909. She probably isn't anything but the SK or the traitor, since I doubt BC would claim cop after his scumbuddy just did. So if SW is scum, she is either the traitor or the SK. If she's the traitor, it's better to save her for tomorrow; if she's the SK, she's the better lynch.

But I'd rather just lynch Sposh. There is still the chance that SW is the cop, and I'd just as well wait until we get a result from her, if only because that'll be more interesting. And I really don't see how Sposh is town.

Even if town-Sposh somehow got a fake negative on Mufasa (I can't see how that would happen), Sposh's reaction to Mufasa claiming vigilante is totally off. Why claim to confirm that there is an SK (something, given Wickedjestr's fate, we don't even need to have confirmed) but not claim when Mufasa claimed vig? It doesn't make any sense.

Vote: Sposh

I think Sposh could very well be the SK too, and he is more definitely scum than Snow White.

To believe Snow White is town, you have to believe she is a cop who somehow forgot how her role works.

To believe Sposh is town, you have to believe that up is down and the sky is pink.

[almightybob]

I think, almightybob, that you are overstating how good this evidence is

Possibly. I'll look back through it again.
I think it's important to remember, though, that SK-SW would not have known at the time of submitting her kill that BC would flip scum. If I were the SK in SW's situation, I would be most concerned about self-preservation.

While I agree that wicked was playing generally pro-Town, I got the impression from my quick ISO that he was concentrated on SW a fair bit more than any other player. He did pursue other leads and scumhunt elsewhere, but he had it in for SW, especially after her claim.


I think you might be right though. Go with the safer option today, and we'll be in a fantastic position tomorrow. 100% lynching accuracy on D3, yes please.

Unvote, vote: Sposh

[Sanjay]

I guess I'm just generally objecting to the leap from "If Snow White is the SK she would probably kill wickedjestr" to "Since wickedjestr was killed, Snow White is probably the SK".

[almightybob]

I guess I'm just generally objecting to the leap from "If Snow White is the SK she would probably kill wickedjestr" to "Since wickedjestr was killed, Snow White is probably the SK".

Ah no, that's not what I'm saying. I'm still very much of the first opinion. It's other things that are suggesting to me that she's the SK, the wicked stuff is more like "does this hold up if SW is SK? very much so".

[Mufasa]

Yup I think that Splosh is the one to go today,

vote splosh

[Sposh]

No, no, no! I didn't mean Mufasa, I meant MrSuave! Ugh, I forgot who I sent in to investigate!

Don't lynch me guys. Pleeeaase.

[almightybob]

Aye right. Vote stays.

[xRECKONERx]

-_-

I don't see how you can forget who you investigated.

[elvis_knits]

I can't remember if I'm voting sposh or SW.

unvote; vote sposh