Newbie 843 (Game Over)

[PaltryExcuse]

Secondly, I'd like both tubby & Zach to think about who they believe is scum of the other 4 of us. If we lynch correctly today, any info either of you give will be useful later.

[tubby216]

ok paltry to answer your first question see crazy's iso post 6 and 7 then after that it was the way crazy reacted to my hammer in twilight that led me to investigate crrazy.

ok here is what i think out of process of elimination,

1 since manho was not counter claimed i believe him town.
2 if manho is town then paltry must be town since manho claims he protected soy/paltry
3 so that leaves kyiv and starbuck, i have a town read on kyiv currently,
4. that leaves starbuck, with starbucks quick vote seems too much like distancing and trying to cut off the town from learning more, so if i am not lynched thats who i will be investigating tomorrow.


I know my play sucks . I know i play like i am unhelpful town slash idiot.

so i think thats all my cards on the table

[PaltryExcuse]

Firstly, I'd like to apologize. I'm getting the feeling that I've offended you in some way when it wasn't my intention to at all.

Point #4: This could be me misunderstanding the mafia-scum lingo, but don't we lynch during the day? Or is it considered night lynch as well as night kill? If so, if we lynch you, and you're town, there is no tomorrow.

Also, I would like to say this: If tubby isn't scum, his claim clears manho. The only way manho can be scum in my eyes is if
a) No night kill
b) tubby is also scum seeing as he is claiming cop and roleblocked and there has been no counterclaim.
Am I missing something?

[tubby216]

Firstly, I'd like to apologize. I'm getting the feeling that I've offended you in some way when it wasn't my intention to at all.

Point #4: This could be me misunderstanding the mafia-scum lingo, but don't we lynch during the day? Or is it considered night lynch as well as night kill? If so, if we lynch you, and you're town, there is no tomorrow.

Also, I would like to say this: If tubby isn't scum, his claim clears manho. The only way manho can be scum in my eyes is if
a) No night kill
b) tubby is also scum seeing as he is claiming cop and roleblocked and there has been no counterclaim.
Am I missing something?

no no no you diddn't offend me i was trying to answer your questions,

and what i meant about point 4 is "if I am not lynched today, then tonite starbuck will be my investigation choice"

i am sorry if i was unclear.

[tubby216]

@kyiv,
did i answer you questions or do i need to explain further? Because i felt you questions overlapped with paltry so i wanted to make sure you knew i wasn't avioding you

[manho]

i've protected starbuck last night, just random.

paltry has a really good point there that tubby and zach should do an analysis on each of the 4 of us, that will be useful for us the hunt for the last scum.

i believe tubby more than zach.

@mod: V/LA until 20/11

[Zachrulez]

I've come down with a cold. You can expect spotty activity from me over the next few days.

[PaltryExcuse]

@Zach: Sorry to pressure you when your sick, but right now I'd really like an analysis on the other 4 of us and I am kinda waiting on it.

[tubby216]

starbuck- do you have any thoughts currently?

Kyiv- do you have any further thoughts?

[Kyiv]

No, Tubby; you still haven't explained what in particular about Zach's play led you to investigate him.

Your sudden change of heart almost scares me

[tubby216]

No, Tubby; you still haven't explained what in particular about Zach's play led you to investigate him.

did not like this post

Yeah, I have a confession to make. I've been waivering on my scum read of Cookie. In a situation where scum needs any other lynch to survive, him changing his vote from me doesn't really make any sense as scum.

At the moment, the fact that Starbuck is not voting is sticking out like a sore thumb to me, so yeah, with the deadline fast approaching why haven't you found it important to fully catch up and take a firm stance?

Unvote: Vote: Starbuck

and his generall play i did not like. He just read funny in iso so i went back and read the day and figured it would make a good choice for investigating. Because either it would confirm him town or find scum wich it did.

Your sudden change of heart almost scares me

normally i save this explination for after the game ends but i'll do it here and now because its warranted. I generally play anti town or as unhelpful as possible when i am town, because it aides me in gauging everyones reactions to me. Plus it allows me to aviod being nightkilled due to the fact i make a better lynch than a nk canidate. Since I did not know wether or not there would be a doc in this game untill i was rb'd nite 1 i figured that same stratagey would serve me well here. Of course it did untill it comes to time like now when i claim. So i get where you guys extremely cautious in believing me at face value.

[Kyiv]

Tubby has been fairly consistent until now; there are similarities between CP's posts and Zach's posts that struck Tubby to investigate them both. At this point, I'm more inclined to believe Tubby.

Vote: Zach

[PaltryExcuse]

@Zach: Repondez s'il vous plait. I've seen you post on your other game and would like some of your time as well. In case you don't remember exactly what it is I want:
Comments on the 4 that aren't you or tubby. Basically, a rudimentary PBPA.

[Zachrulez]

Patience, we're not in a deadline critical situation right now.

I will be well again in a day or so, which is when I will respond to your inquiries.

[PaltryExcuse]

You're right, impatience is ruling the day for me right now.

[Zachrulez]

In my mind, the 2nd scum is between Starbuck, and Kyiv.

It's highly unlikely that there's any scenario where you can be scum Paltry. A far fetched no kill on night 1 with you being paired with tubby is about the only thing I can see, but I am doubting that the mafia didn't actually attempt to kill your slot on night one.

Manho can't be scum unless he's scum with Tubby. Mafia would have had to have intentionally no killed for this to work. (Given no doc counterclaim.) I am doubting this.

So that leaves Starbuck, who seemed to be lurking a bit too much for my liking. I am wondering if she would have voted at all at the end of day 2 if I hadn't picked up on the fact that she wasn't voting.

Transition into day 3 and she's way too quick to believe Tubby's cop claim for my liking. (Which of course she now goes back on.)

But still, there's something about kyiv. (Who's also chosen to vote for me before actually allowing my thoughts to be heard.) I have to wonder how Tubby argues that crazy pianist was worthy of an investigation on night one, and now claims to have a town read on kyiv. That doesn't seem to match up

More concerns.

@kyiv: the bjl-cookie-scum-interaction has nothing with cookie setting up mislynch. and cookie is not scum for setting up mislynch solely, and the bolded "town" is to show cookie knew wrath would flip town,

You never ever said why you thought this. You just said it. No one else provided it as a reason, nor did anyone provide any thoughts relating to this. So I ignored it, with good reason.

cookie set up two future lynches after wrath was lynched, tubby if town and crazy if scum. but i (and tubby?) am pushing for two lynches at the same time, and am happy to lynch both of them today, even before one of them is lynched.

That sounds even scummier than before! Now you don't care if they flip town or not? You just want them dead. It's okay to state a suspicion of someone if another person flips a certain alignment, but to lynch two people regardless of alignment is pretty off-putting to me.

that's different. the thing that i was tempted to claim is true, and i remember there is a post between bjl's and my posts by crazy(?) saying the doc shouldn't claim.

I'm still finding it hard to believe since you were soooo convinced that it was "congratulating the doc", you argued against it until Ojanen herself cleared it, even when Cookie and myself both fought against it.

I don't like either lynch wagons at this point. I'm finding Manho the scummiest even with his doc claim (or perhaps even especially because of it). Both Zach and Cookie seem town to me, especially since Cookie is not riding the rival wagon to his own safety, that screams town to me. I also can't find any arguments to why Cookie is scum, just blank accusations that I don't agree with and have fought to death over. Zach is still voting Cookie and he hasn't exactly given reasons why recently, just that he's unsure of Cookie's defense of Bjl (which was way way back). With all that said, I'm not buying Manho's doc claim, nor am I buying anyone's arguments that Cookie is scum. So for now:

Vote: Manho

With that said, how much time do we have? I know today is the last day, but how much longer can we go before deadline hammers?

Voting for the uncountered doc claim toward the end of day 2.

At that point in the game it's pretty clear that Manho was unlikely to be scum. It seems even more clear now. I have to wonder about the motivations behind that post.

And more.

You're missing one thing: Why did you investigate CP and Zach? Now that you've claimed, you haven't a reason to keep anything from us. Also, there are very big chances that town will lose if we mislynch. Please don't rush into a Zach lynch.

I'd like to hear from Starbuck... your vote on EC came from nowhere (or at least that's what it looked like), and you seem to be missing very big parts of the game, though you are quick to jump in as soon as someone mentions your name.

I happen to agree with the 2nd part. Starbuck's EC vote did look pretty weak. The 1st part though, establishes that the town should be cautious about the way it approaches the Tubby claim. Not an unreasonable position... however

Manho, who did you protect last night?

Uhhh...

No, Tubby; you still haven't explained what in particular about Zach's play led you to investigate him.

Your sudden change of heart almost scares me

Tubby has been fairly consistent until now; there are similarities between CP's posts and Zach's posts that struck Tubby to investigate them both. At this point, I'm more inclined to believe Tubby.

Vote: Zach

Only need one side of the story do you?

Now the position I'm in right now. It's pretty clear to me that Manho is the doctor, and it's also pretty clear that I have concerns about both Kyiv and Starbuck. I tend to lean toward Kyiv being the 2nd scum at this point.

I don't really understand Kyiv's interest in the claimed doctor or why she was interested in who Manho protected.

I think I should also make clear that the presence of a cop in this setup is not certain, and that only the scum would know for sure whether or not there actually is a cop at this point. This would seem to be consistent with Kyiv's interest in the doctor and why she seems to both believe the claim at face value while simultaneously trying to make a case against him. (Observe again the end of day 2.)

Further I think it's quite important to point out that if there is no cop in the setup, the scum would know that the instant manho claimed. A safe fake claim of cop would be a relatively easy thing to pull off in this situation as scum would know there would be no counter claim, and given how badly I have played up to this point in general, scum could perceive my lynch as a relatively easy one to get.

[Zachrulez]

All that said, I'd still like to see more content from Starbuck. She hasn't posted in a while and her actions coupled with her lurking still bother me.

[PaltryExcuse]

You made a damn good point about Kyiv. She does seem to believe manho is doc today, despite voting for him at the end of yesterday.
Two reasons: That post where she wants to know who he'll protect. And believing tubby means believing manho.

Now that you've put your analysis up, I have to put up this post in order to get something deciphered:

Okay, Im definitely looking at bfl, first one to get to speculating on the doc is suspicious, not entirely unlike 'congratulating the doctor'

how/why is it suspicious? what other explanation is there? I guess it's possible the mafia chose to not kill, but that's not likely and doesn't make sense. If we had been past the 72 hour time-limit for night, I would have considered the possibility that the mafia didn't get their orders in.

Why not? It gets everyone thinking doctor, and then the doctor (if there is one) becomes tempted to claim with the information they think they gained. It's actually a more common tactic than one might think. (Also consider that it can make for a good fake claim by mafia later in the game should it become clear to them that there is no doctor.)

close ach, but what i believe ethreal and bfl are looking for is the cop claim.

see scum don't nite kill, leaves town thin doc suceeded , cop feel safe to claim knowing there is a doc to protect him, scum kill cop

however if we have one or both roles both should be quiet about who they are

In this post, tubby seems to know:
A) There is a cop (scum is looking for cop claim)
B) That there are two goons (cop is safe to claim though there is no doc)

I am thoroughly confused by this alone.

[tubby216]

yes i knew there was a cop cause i am the cop. it was more to the point i was trying to get the doc to stay quiet and not claim.

[PaltryExcuse]

@Mod: We haven't heard from Starbuck since Sunday. Prod please?

[Kyiv]

So that leaves Starbuck, who seemed to be lurking a bit too much for my liking. I am wondering if she would have voted at all at the end of day 2 if I hadn't picked up on the fact that she wasn't voting.

She seems to be rather reactionary. It almost seems she wouldn't do anything if we didn't constantly press her. For instance, when Ojanen and several others asked for her opinions quite a few times, she only appeared with her thoughts right after we called on her.

But still, there's something about kyiv. (Who's also chosen to vote for me before actually allowing my thoughts to be heard.) I have to wonder how Tubby argues that crazy pianist was worthy of an investigation on night one, and now claims to have a town read on kyiv. That doesn't seem to match up

How not? CP and I are different people, different players. CP didn't add much, and it has been quite a while since he last contributed (with good reason), so it isn't hard to get a different idea of a person even if they hold the same slot. I had quite a different opinion of Ojanen than I did of Bjl. Though you do bring up a good point: Why do you find me town, Tubby?

Voting for the uncountered doc claim toward the end of day 2.

At that point in the game it's pretty clear that Manho was unlikely to be scum. It seems even more clear now. I have to wonder about the motivations behind that post.

Manho was playing incredibly scummy at that point, and there is entirely the possibility (especially at the time) that there was no doc. There still is that possibility, it's still 50% likely there isn't a doc; we haven't lynched any power roles (scum or town) so there's really no confirmation of this.

I happen to agree with the 2nd part. Starbuck's EC vote did look pretty weak. The 1st part though, establishes that the town should be cautious about the way it approaches the Tubby claim. Not an unreasonable position... however

I'm not sure what you were getting at here.

Only need one side of the story do you?

Now the position I'm in right now. It's pretty clear to me that Manho is the doctor, and it's also pretty clear that I have concerns about both Kyiv and Starbuck. I tend to lean toward Kyiv being the 2nd scum at this point.

I don't really understand Kyiv's interest in the claimed doctor or why she was interested in who Manho protected.

Because I still hadn't believed Manho's doc claim, and Tubby's claim completely hinges on Manho being the doc, or at least someone being a doc. And as no one has counter-claimed, either Manho is the doc, or no one is at this point.

I think I should also make clear that the presence of a cop in this setup is not certain, and that only the scum would know for sure whether or not there actually is a cop at this point. This would seem to be consistent with Kyiv's interest in the doctor and why she seems to both believe the claim at face value while simultaneously trying to make a case against him. (Observe again the end of day 2.)

Point out where I say or even imply that I believed Manho's doc claim, if even for a second. At least in Day 2. I believed Manho to be so incredibly scummy, and I'm not entirely convinced he still isn't. And I'm not the only person who disbelieved his claim. However at this point, I believe that the first scum today is either you or Tubby, which was a difficult choice to make in day 2, it's even harder now.

Two reasons: That post where she wants to know who he'll protect. And believing tubby means believing manho.

I believe I answered the first, for the second:

His response to that question gave me nothing; had he answered with something like Ojanen, I would have strung up Tubby today, and Manho tomorrow. Also, last night's kill made me believe that scum was attempting to get me to tunnel Manho, so between the time I saw that post, and the time I saw Tubby's claim, my view of Manho waned.

Now that you've put your analysis up, I have to put up this post in order to get something deciphered:

*Snip*

In this post, tubby seems to know:
A) There is a cop (scum is looking for cop claim)
B) That there are two goons (cop is safe to claim though there is no doc)

I am thoroughly confused by this alone.

It's something like this that makes me believe more that Tubby is cop, or very meticulously planned scum. I'm more inclined to believe the former.

I'm starting to believe that perhaps Starbuck might be the better lynch.

[PaltryExcuse]

It's something like this that makes me believe more that Tubby is cop, or very meticulously planned scum. I'm more inclined to believe the former.

I'm starting to believe that perhaps Starbuck might be the better lynch.

Paragraph one: I agree.
Paragraph two: No. We go from a VERY probable 50/50 chance for me to an assumed 50/50 chance. No no no no no no no no no.......... no.

[Zachrulez]

It's not very probable 50/50. It IS 50/50

One of us has to be lying.

[PaltryExcuse]

Exactly, even more extreme then I was making it.

[Zachrulez]

I want Kyiv to elaborate more on her conclusion to the quoted first paragraph on 621.

I also want to see some content from Starbuck.