Open 175 - Picking Simplicity (Game Over)

[semioldguy]

saberwolf replaces Yankee

[saberwolf]

hello all

unvote

just in case

FoS: Yabbaguy

No reason for the FoS

[saberwolf]

@Nikanor-22: You, dramonic, Scott (he replaced out... like a Yankees fan ), Flava Flave, and I've run into 12KB and zwet from elsewhere.

My only rule: Don't do bullshit gambits, or bullshit in general. Your bullshit will be discarded, or you will be discarded for bullshitting.

...

What? Can't a grandpa let his guttermouth run loose once in a while?

wow, I didn't get far in page 1 to find a reason to justify my FoS, lol

...but I like gambits...

[saberwolf]

I've read the first 10 pages, then got lazy. I'll read some more later.

Until then, my current thoughts on who is scum:

Blastius
Pomegranate
Flava Flave
Nikanor

[Flava Flave]

Saber, Pom is the only one of your suspects who is scum. Try again.

[MichelSableheart]

Ok, I've read the game, time to get serious.

First of all, considering the number of inactives and replacements in this game, I wouldn't mind seeing it abandoned.

I mean, just look at my predecessor. His last post in this thread was made on october 19th. He has been up for replacement for three weeks. He should have been modkilled at least a week ago.

Something similar happened to 12keyblade. He was under heavy suspicion when he dissappeared. It took the mod 6 days before he started looking for a replacement, and another 5 before 12keyblade was replaced. In the meantime, the game completely stalled.

That being said, on with my opinions. I'm only going to focus on a couple of players who drew my attention.

First up, WarWound. His play is extremely unhelpful. He rarely usefully contributes, and manages to infuriate the other players with his behaviour. That being said, he does give off extreme VI vibes. He hasn't done anything excessively scummy IMO, so he probably is the ideal mislynch for scum today. I'm not going to support this wagon now.

Basically, I only see him as scum if Iguana turns out to be a mafia member with him. Because I see quite a lot of connections there. WarWound is blindly following her in post #182, and again in post #566. And of course they are solidly defending each other. Just look at Iguana #209 and WarWound #256 for examples.

Individually, I see a lot of reasons to be suspicious of Iguana. It starts with the last paragraph of her post #136. Not only is she already setting up a policy lynch on zwet there, but she's also directing the cop should that fail. The next thing I found very remarkable is her question to the mod in #363. Modus Operandi wasn't being discussed at that point in time, nor was it relevant in any way at that point in time. It seems a very strange question for a pro-town player to ask. For an SK (or to a lesser extend for the mafia), the question is far more relevant, since it directly involves their abilities. And of course there is the way she kickstarted the zwet wagon. Zwet is a player who is known for his antitown play. Iguana wanted to policy lynch him already. So as soon as she notices a slight contradiction (ignoring the obvious interpretation of "I think your reasoning for wanting pomegranade lynched is good enough to warrant no further investigation" and instead focusing on the far more unlikely interpretation of "I completely agree with your poor reasons") she grabs the chance, and never lets go. During day 2, she isn't in the clear either. She goes on an inactive hunt without taking into account the simple fact that the players she is investigating are inactive and up for replacement, accusing them instead of lurking intentionally. The final nail to the coffin is the fact that dramonic was nightkilled by the SK. Dramonic didn't strike me as obv town. He was only doing one thing: tunneling on Iguana. He wasn't a threat to anybody else. Iguana is the only player with significant reason to want him dead. Which makes Iguana very likely SK in my mind.

FoS: Iguana

Why only a FoS instead of a vote? Because there is someone scummier around. Someone who, like Iguana, has been hoping for a zwet lynch from the beginning, even though he did make it appear like he was arguing against it. Just look at post #133. Yabbaguy is basically begging for a policy zwet lynch there. A trend continued in #208. Again a "I am not suspicious of you, but you are suspicious" post. And again in #297. And then #336 comes around. Which comes down to "Zwet is always active lurking. I'm waiting for him to do something that might be seen as a tell so I can safely hop on". Which is again what he says in #454: "Don't vote zwet when he's only active lurking, wait till he actually made a scumtell". In #530 and #536, he is investigating whether the 'tell' Iguana and Spyrex found is good enough to vote on, and as soon as that is confirmed and the notorious antitown player refuses to defend himself, he votes in #571. Basically, he has continually throughout the thread stated that he only needed a good excuse for a zwet lynch. I'm saying he didn't believe Zwet scummy. He only found his good excuse.

Vote: yabbaguy

Some other things to note about yabbaguy: #586, accusing zwet of OMGUSing when zwet voted yabba because he voted Iguana (and not yabba, which is required for OMGUS. #605, yabba attacking the nightkilled doctor for being an active lurker (as opposed to inactive). #676, potential slipup (this isn't fair to the town anymore, aka I'm winning in a way I don't want to win).

My suspicion is that during night 0, the mafia saw that zwet was in the game, knew his reputation, and decided to get the day 1 lynch on him. Especially posts #133-136 are interesting here, pushing a zwet lynch long before it became popular.

IGMEOY, Hyl and 12keyblade

.

Final player of note: Head_Honcho. The main thing he has been doing yesterday is discussing a zwet wagon with yabbaguy. His attack on yabbaguy meant that he could take whatever stance on zwet that he found convenient. The interactions between him and yabba don't sit well with me.

Conclusions

Serial Killer:
Iguana

Mafia:
yabbaguy
Head_Honcho
Hyl (= Saberwolf)
?

[yabbaguy]

@Miche-730: Your case includes points on the following, and I don't understand why these are deemed a scumtell.

-Expressing confusion over how to interpret an anti-town player. To me, you interpret this as me saying "He's a hopeless case, let's just get him out of the way." However, this was said with no intention of having zwet lynched.
-Believing anti-town players innocent until proven guilty. Yes, I absolutely took advantage of guilty proof in the later stages of the Day, but this does not necessarily correlate with scum behavior. That's what I thought initially when I made posts to zwet trying to get him to act more pro-town. Then when the scumslip was brought up, I simply made the jump from anti-town to scum. It's completely normal.
-Me waiting for "a good moment" to wagon. It is a townie's duty to look for players who look like they are on the edge of going scummy (hence the IGMEOY acronym, which is basically implicit in all my prior posts), and then once identifying a scumtell, voting for them. It's not scum opportunism.
-Asking to clarify a scumtell. It is a townie's job to seek information and clarification when necessary. Why am I not allowed as town to act upon information once it is clarified?

My fault for hypocritically misusing the OMGUS acronym, but that's not scummy, that's just me being forgetful.

I have no comment on the Scott Brosius matter. I wasn't trying to distance at all here, and that's really all I can say at this point. A faint possibility of scum trying to set me up here as next-in-line comes to mind, however.

Voting to abandon the game, however, is your biggest stretch in the whole case. I said that because I felt, as town, that this game was way too unfair for *us*, and that I'd rather not complete the game under these horrifically difficult pretenses.

---

I think ultimately it boils down to a point of scum opportunism vs. townie scumhunting. I, granted, did not come up with any original proof because I was thoroughly lost in the whole clutter of the game, so I decided to simply go along with what others were saying. Yes, I'm a bandwagonner. I made the mistake as town of not thinking for myself. And I made a solemn promise D1 which I'm planning to keep that I will try to think for myself.

I'm sorry I blindly followed. But it's not scummy.

[StrangerCoug]

Saber, Pom is the only one of your suspects who is scum. Try again.

Do you have reason to believe that Blastius and Nikanor are town? If you don't, then you are really in no position to question him. (I'm fully aware that you're not going to bring your own alignment into question without a good reason.)

[MichelSableheart]

@Miche-730: Your case includes points on the following, and I don't understand why these are deemed a scumtell.

-Expressing confusion over how to interpret an anti-town player. To me, you interpret this as me saying "He's a hopeless case, let's just get him out of the way." However, this was said with no intention of having zwet lynched.
-Believing anti-town players innocent until proven guilty. Yes, I absolutely took advantage of guilty proof in the later stages of the Day, but this does not necessarily correlate with scum behavior. That's what I thought initially when I made posts to zwet trying to get him to act more pro-town. Then when the scumslip was brought up, I simply made the jump from anti-town to scum. It's completely normal.
-Me waiting for "a good moment" to wagon. It is a townie's duty to look for players who look like they are on the edge of going scummy (hence the IGMEOY acronym, which is basically implicit in all my prior posts), and then once identifying a scumtell, voting for them. It's not scum opportunism.
-Asking to clarify a scumtell. It is a townie's job to seek information and clarification when necessary. Why am I not allowed as town to act upon information once it is clarified?

I am suspecting ulterior motives behind your behaviour towards him. Your posts about how he is anti-town seemed designed to cast suspicion on him without actually voting him yourself, while also explicitly keeping the possibility open to vote him at a later stage.

That behaviour througout the game that makes me believe that

• you decided with your mafia partners that Zwet was a likely day 1 mislynch,
• you spend a large part of day 1 making him black with remarks about how antitown he was, and
• you would vote for him as soon as you had a valid excuse.

I have no comment on the Scott Brosius matter. I wasn't trying to distance at all here, and that's really all I can say at this point. A faint possibility of scum trying to set me up here as next-in-line comes to mind, however.

My point was more that you were aware that he was active lurking, which is a non-vanilla tell. Therefore, you as mafia were more likely to nightkill him. Which makes the nightkill of Scott Brosius a point against you.

[Col.Cathart]

Stranger: Ok, now I'm curious. You're mentioning Hyl and Flava for following the 12KB wagon. Blastinus also did it, and IMO in much worse manner than others. And yet, you didn't mention it. In fact, you mention him only once during your whole post, but it's enough to place him on 'neutral' list. It looks weird to me. Like you want to have clear path to either oppose ar approve his possible lynch in the future (via stating he's neutral), but not brining any possible arguments against him, even if you can (I assume, you spotted that as well, if you already looked at people on 12KB wagon). Care to expand your point of view on Blast?

[StrangerCoug]

Stranger: Ok, now I'm curious. You're mentioning Hyl and Flava for following the 12KB wagon. Blastinus also did it, and IMO in much worse manner than others. And yet, you didn't mention it. In fact, you mention him only once during your whole post, but it's enough to place him on 'neutral' list. It looks weird to me. Like you want to have clear path to either oppose ar approve his possible lynch in the future (via stating he's neutral), but not brining any possible arguments against him, even if you can (I assume, you spotted that as well, if you already looked at people on 12KB wagon). Care to expand your point of view on Blast?

Keep in mind that I only went through the whole thread once. I may have missed stuff that I shouldn't have, and that's why I want people to speak up if I did. You spoke up, which is a good sign.

I agree with some of Blast's thought processes, but he has done stuff that's keeping me from calling him town (#11 and #15 in isolation, for example).

[Nikanor]

#38 Nikanor: Freudian slip.

How, exactly?

A faint possibility of scum trying to set me up here as next-in-line comes to mind, however.

Very faint. Like, one in a million. I'm sure that scum trying to set someone up would probably pick a) an easier player to push into a noose, or b) a much more obvious way of making you look scummy. You are deflecting here.
I can get behind a yabba lynch.

Vote: yabbaguy.

[SpyreX]

Hold up @ 730

Iguana is the SK because Dramonic "tunneled" in on them? Which would make the business with WarWound impossible to be scum buddying.

But, you also make reference to WarWound being scum meaning Iguana is scum?

Which is it? I see a whole lot of Iguana-hate there that...doesn't end on a vote on Iguana (who is awesome this game).

So... yea.

[Nikanor]

doesn't end on a vote on Iguana (who is awesome this game).

Agreed. Iguana is probtown.

[SpyreX]

Yes, and the WW wagon is absolutely disconcerting for more than a few reasons, but I digress because Yankee Hyl is scum.

[Nikanor]

Yankee Hyl is scum.

First, saber/Yankee/Hyl.
Second, I'd be willing to lynch saber simply for putting me in his scumlist.

Unvote. Vote: saberwolf.

Iguana and SpyreX said this is the right way to go. I'm going to throw some trust over your way, if that's alright with you.

[SpyreX]

Hells yea you'll be part of the UNBREAKABLE ALLIANCE if hyankeewolf is scum.

BTW - Got that MAJOR itch that Sableheart might be the SK now. Almost enough to switch it: in this setup town if they think they've bagged an SK should damn well be voting for them. Which, he didn't.

However, I think it more likely smoke and mirrors around this lynch. Which we're doin.

[MichelSableheart]

Hold up @ 730

Iguana is the SK because Dramonic "tunneled" in on them? Which would make the business with WarWound impossible to be scum buddying.

But, you also make reference to WarWound being scum meaning Iguana is scum?

Which is it? I see a whole lot of Iguana-hate there that...doesn't end on a vote on Iguana (who is awesome this game).

So... yea.

If WarWound is mafia, Iguana is one of his partners. However, Iguana is not mafia, as she is the SK. Therefore, WarWound is not mafia. Instead, he is a very likely mislynch, and not one I'm going to support.

---

BTW - Got that MAJOR itch that Sableheart might be the SK now. Almost enough to switch it: in this setup town if they think they've bagged an SK should damn well be voting for them. Which, he didn't.

I disagree. For the mafia, the SK is a mayor threat, because he has the ability to nightkill them. Similary, the mafia is a threat to the SK. He has to reduce their numbers significantly, or he will simply be endgamed. As long as both parties are alive, there is a significant incentive for making crosskills. Why lynch the SK when you can lynch mafia and let the mafia kill the SK?

---
I'm willing to support a saberwolf lynch, but a yabbaguy lynch is better.

[saberwolf]

Yankee Hyl is scum.

First, saber/Yankee/Hyl.
Second, I'd be willing to lynch saber simply for putting me in his scumlist.

Unvote. Vote: saberwolf.

Iguana and SpyreX said this is the right way to go. I'm going to throw some trust over your way, if that's alright with you.

I'm willing to bet the only reason this vote is really here is because you didn't appreciate me IMing you just to tell you I shaved my balls and was taking a giant dump while talking to you

[StrangerCoug]

Second, I'd be willing to lynch saber simply for putting me in his scumlist.

Unvote. Vote: saberwolf.

FoS: Nikanor

. Shamelessly OMGUS'ing here.

[Grimmy]

Quickposting.

I disagree with Michel about the Iguana thing, but he DID get me thinking more about who the Sk may be. But I have a question about that. Is it more helpful or hurtful to us to have the SK alive right now, as someone pointed out, the SK has to worry about the mafia just as much as we do, so, at what point in the game would it be more feasible to hunt for the SK, or do we lump in the SK with the mafia and look for them as a group?

Also, I want to look more into the Yabba case, but also want to look into the Flava case. Gut feeling on the latter for now.

Grimmy
glad to see we got some new blood

[Nikanor]

the SK has to worry about the mafia just as much as we do, so, at what point in the game would it be more feasible to hunt for the SK, or do we lump in the SK with the mafia and look for them as a group?

Does it matter? Scum is scum. Avoiding a lynch of someone because we think they might be sk is stupid.
Second, I think Flava is town. Everyone gets gut scum reads on Flava, and I don't understand why.

[semioldguy]

Vote Count 13:

With 17 alive, it takes 9 to lynch.

saberwolf

(3) – SpyreX, Iguana, Nikanor

Pomegranate

(2) – Head_Honcho, Col.Cathart

WarWound

(2) – Toro, StrangerCoug

yabbaguy

(1) – MichelSableheart

Antihero

(1) – Flava Flave

Not Voting (8) –

Blastinus, skitzer, yabbaguy, WarWound, Grimmy, Antihero, saberwolf, Pomegranate

Notes:

* Prodded: skitzer
* Searching for replacements for Antihero, Pomegranate, WarWound and Blastinus.
* Deadline currently on hold.

[SpyreX]

If WarWound is mafia, Iguana is one of his partners. However, Iguana is not mafia, as she is the SK. Therefore, WarWound is not mafia. Instead, he is a very likely mislynch, and not one I'm going to support.

If A, then B.
Not B.
Thus, Not A.

I disagree. For the mafia, the SK is a mayor threat, because he has the ability to nightkill them. Similary, the mafia is a threat to the SK. He has to reduce their numbers significantly, or he will simply be endgamed. As long as both parties are alive, there is a significant incentive for making crosskills. Why lynch the SK when you can lynch mafia and let the mafia kill the SK?

No. Just no.

That argument MAY be able to be made in some situations and setups, but definitely not this one:

There are three methods in which we can lose players. One is controlled (the lynch) and the other two are NOT controlled. Elimination of the SK removes one of those entirely which buys time to find the scum. (Especially since with the numbers stacked the SK is MUCH better off early to midgame killing the towniest players versus aiming for scum to whittle down the numbers).

So, yes, day 2 with half our power roles dead? Yea, I'd shoot for the sk if I had two suspects 50/50.

However, this is kind of ignoring the OTHER major issue at hand: you have said, clearly, Iguana is your pick for an anti-town role and have opted not to vote them. Nothing would suggest that your level of confidence in your other suggestion is anywhere NEAR that.

So, its pretty much "Ohh yea they are TOTALLY scum lets vote this guy"

Unvote, Vote: MichaelSable

Yea.

[Flava Flave]

Saber, Pom is the only one of your suspects who is scum. Try again.

Do you have reason to believe that Blastius and Nikanor are town? If you don't, then you are really in no position to question him. (I'm fully aware that you're not going to bring your own alignment into question without a good reason.)

I have town reads on both, yes.