888: X-COM TFTD Mafia: Over!


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Post Post #9 (isolation #0) » Tue Nov 24, 2009 2:27 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

/confirm
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Post Post #10 (isolation #1) » Tue Nov 24, 2009 2:29 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

(Oh, man cyan is terrible for my eyes!!!!)
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Post Post #26 (isolation #2) » Tue Nov 24, 2009 10:57 pm

Post by Claude Lefevre »

how is RV a bad thing??? it is pretty normal at gamestart.

Vote: Leon Dreyfus


no dices, no movies, he just has no votes.
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Post Post #56 (isolation #3) » Thu Nov 26, 2009 11:40 pm

Post by Claude Lefevre »

Pretty philosophical, I daresay... of course nothing is really random, even a computer-based generator of random numbers is actually semi-random... problem is, that we do not want to waste too much time investiganting potentially useless psychological facts. For instance I think I RV-ed, but perhaps my subconscious did not like the avatar of the person I voted... interesting, but unuseful to the game, in my opinion.
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Post Post #66 (isolation #4) » Sat Nov 28, 2009 6:51 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

@Edward: since we cannot get any meta, cuz of the alts, I would say that your "plan" is pointless... the right reaction would be voting you right now, cuz your attitude is almost identical to self-vote, which is normally a pretty silly attempt by scums to look confident in their own innocence. You are now the best candidate to become the target of a bw. But I keep my vote where it is, for the moment, and I want to know your justification for posting such an invitation.

About the last question: what do YOU say if I say you are scum if you don't do what I want? LoL I guess you would say I am an idiot. So you have my answer to your point.
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Post Post #93 (isolation #5) » Sun Nov 29, 2009 9:19 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

A smart scum would never post an empty argumentation such as "he smells like scum". On the other hand, a scum who is overconfident in a new starting wagon *could* make the mistake of a baseless vote.

In my opinion there is not so much about Stuart Whyte.

@Edward: would you please explain your "plan"? Why would you ask everyone to vote for you? A prolonged silence on this matter will cause me to vote you.
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Post Post #116 (isolation #6) » Sun Nov 29, 2009 11:29 pm

Post by Claude Lefevre »

@Stuart: how is keeping your reason for voting hidden to the rest of us pro-town? Please explain.

@Stuart&Spencer: since there is no way to discover my identity from this info - cuz it is never stated in my real profile - I will make it clear right now that english is NOT my first language. So please explain me how is this relevant in Spencer's case, cuz I might see it, but I need to be sure.

Mod: I am not counting days, but Edward has disappeared ever since we started questioning his "plan". Would you please make sure to prod him as soon as allowed by the rules?
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Post Post #120 (isolation #7) » Mon Nov 30, 2009 4:08 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

@Igor: do you deliberately ignore post 118, in which Stuart explains the reason why he is arguing about English? If so, why? Do you think his reason is not good enough?

@Stuart: I ask you 2 questions in the same post, and you answer just one of them??? I repeat: why do you think that hiding the reasons of a vote is pro-town?

@Jamie: looks like you are fishing for Stuart's role in post 109:
Jaime Marcelle wrote: Stuart is getting increasingly scummy by the moment. The only reason I could think of that you not telling us the reason for your vote is that you are a secret day cop that got a guilty on emile. I doubt this. Why can't you tell us.
So... yeah. I'm happy with my vote on Stuart.
@Edward: I never like it when FoS'ed people leave a game, but whatever.

@Leon: it is true that you posted much and said almost nothing, as someone else already pointed out. How come? After spamming us with theories on randomness you ran out of topics?

FoS: (Edward + Jamie) OR (Stuart)

for the moment
Unvote; Vote: Jamie
, since Edward is leaving.

and naturally
IGMEOY: Stuart
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Post Post #161 (isolation #8) » Tue Dec 01, 2009 3:18 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

Vote: NO REVEAL


@Everyone: can I have your thoughts about Jamie? I still think he was softfishing ("I say something stupid about a dayvig, perhaps he will softclaim...")...

@Emile: do you realise that you are putting Stuart at L-2 with your vote? (Claude raises his eyebrow)...
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Post Post #170 (isolation #9) » Tue Dec 01, 2009 11:31 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

@Emile: when wagons start I normally like to explore the behavior of voters and not just the behavior of targets... my reason for voting Jamie is that, if Stuart will turn out to be town, then his boutade about a daycop (as voluntarily emphatic as it was) would be clearly an attempted softfishing. By softfishing I mean a sentence by which you do not ask explicitly for someone's role, but you just say something to which he could react revealing info about his role. Anyway, my FoS's remain for the moment Jamie&Edward OR Stuart. How is this posting "little meaningful content"? :-D I am taking a clear position and I believe in what I am doing.

@Stuart(1): attacking players is unfortunately one of the better tools town can use on day 1, I guess. I do not think it is a bad policy, and I do not think it does not provide useful information. Would you explain me why you think so?

@Stuart(2): answering a tautological question such as "would you vote a confirmed mafia" is not helping you anyway.

@Tracey: ASKING a tautological question such as "would you vote a confirmed mafia" is not helping anyone.
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Post Post #204 (isolation #10) » Tue Dec 01, 2009 9:18 pm

Post by Claude Lefevre »

@Stuart: please explain in one sentence why claiming to be bulletproof would be a good thing for town.

You say you don't understand my FoS's. I thought I explained everything in post 120. Anyway, to make it clearer, I think you, (ex-)Edward and Jamie look all scummy. Since Jamie was possibly fishing 4 your role, it is an AUT-AUT situation: either you are scum or Jamie is. There. I also want to make it clear that you are my FoS, and your claim, which I do not buy, either (see question above), is making you look worse.
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Post Post #225 (isolation #11) » Wed Dec 02, 2009 11:20 pm

Post by Claude Lefevre »

guys I am not posting much for the next 24 hours: job crap... sorry about that. for the moment I have just 2 observations:

1) On Spencer's question to Leon: it is a silly question, sorry but I have to say it. On a late day 1 wagon there can easily be scumpeople even if the target is scum.

2) @Tracey: There is no strict relation between Jamie and Edward, but they are both scummy to me and they never attacked each other; on the other hand, none of them seems likely to be scumbud with Stuart. So I thank you for your observation: my FoS is better described by:

Jamie OR Edward OR Jamie&Edward OR Stuart

also: I didn't consider the fact that a SK may exist...

Sidenote: even though I am not voting you right now, Stuart, I cannot find anything in your next posts that would convince me you should be spared... Don't you see that a day 1 claimed bulletproof is useless to town? If you were town, you should have just claimed nilla: it's not like we can test your claim, anyway...

You will agree that, since we have to assume you are not new to this game, it is pretty natural to think that you are faking this.
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Post Post #229 (isolation #12) » Thu Dec 03, 2009 4:59 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

very quick post (due to access limitation, but it's not like I'd have much more to say now, anyway).
Stuart Whyte wrote:
Claude Lefevre wrote: You will agree that, since we have to assume you are not new to this game, it is pretty natural to think that you are faking this.
I wont agree to this. Why is it natural to think that?
Because claiming bulletproof is pointless. It is not more verifiable than "nilla town", although it gives the impression that you are sincerely sharing info about your role. And even if you were a bp, which I do not believe, you are no advantage at all, now. Scum would simply save you for lylo.
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Post Post #232 (isolation #13) » Thu Dec 03, 2009 11:58 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

Jamie, sorry, I thought I answered, but u r right, I didn't. Yes, it is my only reason for voting you. It is a stronger reason than many others (for instance it is a stronger reason than meta-fishing, which was invoked earlier in the game), in my opinion. And asking someone if their role is X early in the game is always anti-town. Moreover, I do not see much pro-town activity in your posts.

Spencer: I agree, Leon has been playing it safe. But I still don't see how the question would help. Anyway asking is never a problem, as long as it is not scummy, and your question is not, I just don't see its point.

Whatever. I guess I cannot post what time it is here (meta restrictions), but I really gotta go. During weekend I hope I will have a lil more time.
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Post Post #264 (isolation #14) » Thu Dec 03, 2009 9:29 pm

Post by Claude Lefevre »

I see that some interesting stuff is going on. First of all, Tracey's post about Emile.
on Stuart, Tracey, Emile


I agree that there is an exceedingly emotional approach in the post Tracey's quote, but this doesn't seem a good enough reason for voting. Actually, I think that a scum would be totally idiot if he posted something like that. Also, it might be a linguistic problem, but I was getting the impression that you too are not bothered by the eventuality that Stuart may turn out to be town (which seems very unlikely to me, tbh)... you generally look pro-town to me, Tracey, but it is a fact that
Stuart got at L-1 twice, and both times someone stepped back pretty quickly
... this bothers me.

On the other hand, Tracey is absolutely right when she sez that Emile did not work much to get information from Stuart. But then again, neither did Jamie, nor former Edward...

Regarding Stuart, the following post is beyond the edge of absurdity:
Stuart Whyte wrote:
Gerhard Krause wrote:
Stuart wrote:Atm my top scum suspects:

Scum: Gerhard Spencer Emile
I suppose it would be futile to ask why?
completely.
What the hell is your problem? Why won't you talk to us? This is a team game!

on Jamie

Generally speaking, and in consideration of his attitude towards Stuart, Jamie seems truly convinced that Stuart is Mafia... I do not completely like the way he is ignoring my vote on him, especially now that I answered his question. In the remote possibility that Stuart is not scum, I will surely keep my eye on Jamie, but then again, there is so much going on that ignoring a vote when u r at L-6 is not necessarily scummy.

In conclusion: Stuart reiterated refusal to discuss his FoS's with us bothers me way too much, as it bothers me the fact that two players stepped back whenever he got at L-1. Quoting Tracey, "I may be making my own bed", too, but I
Unvote; Vote: Stuart
. I am really curious to see what happens now.
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Post Post #265 (isolation #15) » Thu Dec 03, 2009 9:30 pm

Post by Claude Lefevre »

ebwop: the layout of my precedent post was meant to be clear and schematic. it isnt, sorry bout that.
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Post Post #267 (isolation #16) » Fri Dec 04, 2009 1:03 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

@Andrew: Yes, it's the only thing, and yes, the same is valid for Spencer: in fact I didn't stress the fact that it is Tracey who now unvoted. i still have to think about it, but I put my vote on Stuart for two reasons:
1) I am convinced that he is scum (he was my FoS since long ago and I explained why I now prefer to vote him rather than Jamie);
2) I want to see what happens now that he is at L-1 for the third time.

@Andrew(2): A hypothesis: scum-Orski saw how poorly scum-Edward had played in his few posts and decides that it isn't even worth trying... plausible?
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Post Post #273 (isolation #17) » Fri Dec 04, 2009 5:02 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

@Igor: I do not see any reason to think Gerard is scummy, so I would like to know why I and Gerard would be the scummiest on the wagon. In my case, is it because I voted so late? If so, I expected something like that, but I had to follow my way and to investigate my FoS's. I am on the wagon now and my future behavior depends mainly on Stuart's, Emile's, Tracey's and Jamie's next posts.

@Tracey: it bothers me because it may be a "hey, perhaps our scum-buddy won't die after all: let's jump off before it is too late". But it is just a feeling. I am glad that Stuart wasn't lynched too soon, but I am not convinced that your observation is strong enough an argument to dismiss the wagon.

@Stuart: we can of course assume that your claim is a fake and that you have a role-based reason to think that Emile is scum (again I don't think so. I think that you are scum). If so, you would be a power role. I am saying it out loud, but everyone has already thought it (I hope: the first was Jamie). In this case, why on earth didn't you just invent a reason for calling Emile scum? A vote with hidden reasons and the refusal to explain is always dangerous to the voter and to his team.
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Post Post #276 (isolation #18) » Fri Dec 04, 2009 8:37 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

since some Mods haven't read the thread close enough, I repeat
Mod
, that
I voted no reveal


LoL :D :D :D

kidding mod, dun modkill me pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeease

:evil:
I assume that vote was serious, so I'm counting it in the VC....
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Post Post #299 (isolation #19) » Sat Dec 05, 2009 4:34 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

I decided to put Stuart next to the L-edge to see what happened, but I didn't expect:
1) him to be hammered by Otto in such a rush (wifom or not wifom, that was a quick-hammer);
2) him to be town;
3) his crazy and pointless claim to be true.

I need to reconsider my FoS, cuz they seem to be almost completely fail (I could find no reason to vote Jamie in his later activity): Otto and Emile need to be seriously watched...
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Post Post #310 (isolation #20) » Sun Dec 06, 2009 1:16 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

on mod quoting: I think that this is close enough to a paraphrasis, although it is on the edge...

on Otto's claim:
(a) it is a good idea because:
if he is NK immune, we lose the option of tricking scum into trying to kill him (possibly even several times), but assuming that we trust him, we gain an allegedly clear PR, which could be a good starting point.
(b) it is a bad idea because:
we have no way to confirm it. If he is scum no1 will ever attempt to NK him...

if there is anyone who has a way to confirm his role, that would be great, but this would probably imply that a second PR would have to come out, which would be quite catastrophic at the moment.

What do Gerhard and Spencer think about this claim (since they declared that they would vote Otto tomorrow)?

@Jamie:
your question:
I changed my mind cuz people were jumping off Stuart wagon AND cuz you were not bevaing very scummy anymore, at least until post 303.
post 303:
I don't understand, you are suspecting that Stuart had some hidden power that was not revealed after death? This bothers me a lot, so please explain.
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Post Post #327 (isolation #21) » Mon Dec 07, 2009 2:36 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

I think we are missing a general view:

There are two options. The first is that Gerhard was scum, the second is that he was a SK.

If he was a scum, he must have had scum-buddie(s). Since his role looks like an anti-town pr (judging from the name, at least, it does not sound like "nilla scum" to me, and he sez that the role was complicated), it is surprising that the remaining scum-buddie(s) didn't kill anyone. (only possible counter-argument: the victim of Gerhard buddies was saved).

If he was a SK, then he was very likely killed by mafia (unless we have a twilight-vig). In this case he would have no partners.

I lean towards the second, cuz I think the odds are better than "he was member of scumteam2 & he was murdered by scumteam1 & the victim of scumteam2 was saved"... in other words, I follow the Ockham Razor.

I gotta re-read and reconsider my FoS's. I will also post some substance about Jamie's post 303, and I will explain why it bothers me.
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Post Post #331 (isolation #22) » Mon Dec 07, 2009 5:16 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

Tracey Morris wrote:Or we have a bus driver and the aliens killed one of their own on accident. But, I find this whole game setup conversation uninteresting and a diversion from actual scumhunting.
This may look too "creative", but I think it makes more sense than Igor's post... whatever...

@Tracey: losing the option of tricking mafia into killing Otto is obviously a bad thing, ça va sans dire... I was trying to spare the platitude and investigate further aspects of the current situation.

I will explain now why I am leaning towards believing Otto's claim. Assume that he is a NK-immune PR. He suddenly sees that a very scummy player claims to be a 1-shot BG. He thinks "yeah. yeah. and how many nk immunes are there in this game?". He assumes tha Stuart is scum and he hammers. This looks like a conceivable scenario to me. It is not a conclusive argumentation, tho.

Now I briefly discuss Jamie's post 303. Proposing that some powers of Stuart, and namely a power allowing him to "know for a fact" that Emile is scum, were kept hidden after his death seems very unlikely to me. Also, it sounds like an argumentation that was constructed "ad hoc" to support an Emile lynch. This is potentially extremely scummy.

Also, I dun like players who spread their FoS's and state that they do not want to vote, yet.

I am confused. I keep getting contradictory "vibes" from Jamie's activity. 2 pages ago I was almost convinced that he wasn't so scummy after all. Now I am keeping my eyes on him again, and although I hate opening the dance, I will put my vote back on him.
Vote: Jamie
.
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Post Post #336 (isolation #23) » Mon Dec 07, 2009 12:39 pm

Post by Claude Lefevre »

Spencer Remmington wrote:There are lots of reasons why there was only one kill last night. Many of which include there being only one kill. Discussing this only helps scum for two reasons:
1. It prevents/slows scumhunting
2. It allows scum to figure out what happened last night while town is still left in the dust.
Leon wrote:I feel awesome for pinging Gerhard.
Please don't.

Question for Otto: Does being a bulletproof have anything to do with why you hammered Whyte?
Note: Please ignore Claude's last post.

Emile's reaction to Stuart's vote is definitely not town knowing that Stuart was town.
Vote: Emile Buchard
lots to comment about this strange post.
1) please, explain why discussing the night dynamics would help scum? If there are no sk, there was either a bus driving action or scum deliberately eliminated on teammate. They very likely already spotted what happened and we should assume that they know more than us.
2) what do you mean by "town knowing that Stuart was town"?

I understand why my last post is a problem to you: I may have suggested Otto a way out, if he is scum. But hell, we must talk about something! And besides, would you clear your position in the Otto or Emile situation? Or you think that they are both scum?

I am confused. Could everyone please stop being scummy at the same time? :-D Kidding, but Spencer, please, explain.
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Post Post #359 (isolation #24) » Mon Dec 07, 2009 9:48 pm

Post by Claude Lefevre »

I will post more later (as always at this time I am at work).

Just a couple of notes about Otto.
1) Your explanation of why u hammered is a damn paraphrasis of my conjectures. Now I wish I had kept my mouth shut.
2) What you are doing in the last posts is a chaos. What is all this PM stuff about? And this secret power that the scumbuddy of Gerhard would know of? Why speaking about it if not to prevent town from lynching you?
3) On post 348: unlikely.

I am afraid we underestimated your noisy potential because Stuart was noisier than you.

@Emile: my case on Jamie is not a case. There is the good ol' soft-fishing from day 1 and the fact that e talks nonsense about Stuart powers. My vote is on him cuz I hope there will be some interesting reaction.

@Jamie: invoking page 12, where no1 actually referred to Stuart knowing something about scum-identites as you do in post 303, is no answer at all, at least to me. Do better.
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Post Post #362 (isolation #25) » Tue Dec 08, 2009 3:49 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

Earlier today I missed post 358. Omg.

We already lost a PR so I think that the best course of action is for Otto to talk himself out of his situation without invoking a vig claim - if he can.

This is so huge that I wouldn't even use the name of "fishing"!
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Post Post #365 (isolation #26) » Tue Dec 08, 2009 8:18 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

Ok, good, then you lied about your role. Why did you do that? I do not see any reason why you should have. There are two open perspectives now. The first regards your post 363 and the second regards you and Emile. And I will close with a final consideration.

1) Mod sez that there is nothing modkillable in your post. This may mean both that you could have lied or that you did an acceptable paraphrasis of your night action pm. Anyway I think that we have no more conclusive information about your role than we did before.

2) You say that you were trying to scan Emile's mind and you got disturbed by Gerhard. Then Gerhard died. This kinda excludes the hypothesis that Gerhard and Emile belonged to the same team. Gerhard sez "k guys I am interacting with Otto" and the rest of the team sez "ehi, thx dude!" and kill him? Dunno, sounds unrealistic to me.

The conclusive consideration: you shouldn't have hammered Stuart in such a rush and you shouldn't have claimed.

Are you a compulsive liar scum or are you like the worst pr ever?

-------

Enough with Otto: Jamie, stop lurking and do something.
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Post Post #380 (isolation #27) » Tue Dec 08, 2009 10:25 pm

Post by Claude Lefevre »

Meh. This game is being seriously ruined. I think that this kind of behavior should seriously be discouraged in mafia games. I
Unvote: No Reveal; Vote: Reveal
. I wanna know who I will have to avoid playing with in the future.
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Post Post #382 (isolation #28) » Wed Dec 09, 2009 3:01 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

Igor, I cannot understand a single word of your last post from "I am now of the thinking" to the end. Please explain me what you meant.
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Post Post #390 (isolation #29) » Wed Dec 09, 2009 9:59 pm

Post by Claude Lefevre »

@Spencer: (1) still think that we cannot help discussing the dynamics of the game, but I see what you mean. (2) oh, sorry, I really misread. (3) A cult you say? Possible, but how can you be sure?

@Jamie: so you are convinced that a sk hit scum-gerhard and not the other way round (scum hit sk-gerhard). Why?
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Post Post #392 (isolation #30) » Thu Dec 10, 2009 3:51 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

I am glad that you share this insightful data concerning the X-COM game, but I have to ask you please to write in a correct English. I am sorry, but it's not my first language and it can't take me 5 minutes to read 3 lines. Thank you.
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Post Post #396 (isolation #31) » Thu Dec 10, 2009 6:21 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

Tbh I kinda expected this. Anyone who has so many FoS's is a good target: if the FoS's are correct, the reason is evident, if they are wrong, scum will be glad to confuse town.

Now I guess I want to hear some comments from the three players Andrew mentioned and from Jamie.
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Post Post #400 (isolation #32) » Thu Dec 10, 2009 11:35 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

yes, there is a chance that she had a guilty (although she didn't look SO sure about anyone), and if not at least she had a clear... I will also re-read her last activity, but I am afraid that any discovery will be valid for the discoverer only, since it will be subject to all the possible wifom of this world when we start discussing it.

hell I asked Igor to post in correct English, but tonite I am too tired to do it myself LoL
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Post Post #407 (isolation #33) » Thu Dec 10, 2009 10:26 pm

Post by Claude Lefevre »

may I ask one - prolly stupid - question?

I do not understand how meta-fishing helps scum more than town. It's against the rules, but how is it a scumtell?

Note that my case on Jamie was based on possible role-fishing, not meta-fishing.
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Post Post #409 (isolation #34) » Fri Dec 11, 2009 2:24 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

Andrew Lemarchand wrote:
Claude wrote:I do not understand how meta-fishing helps scum more than town. It's against the rules, but how is it a scumtell?
As far as my puny brain can figure out, I don't see how it helps one side more than the other. I think the main point with Emile is that he was defending the only known scum in the game.
yes, this is definitely a more interesting approach. Now two considerations.

1) If Gerhard was a scum-member, and he was killed by a vig or stuff like that, why was there no second victim (scum victim) on twilight 1? And what was this vig doing on twilight 2? This are the reasons why I think it is unlikely that Gerhard was a member of the regular scum-party, and I prefer to hypothesize that he was a third party (or at least that his scummy identity was unknown to scum: why defend him and kill him?).
(note that this does not clear Emile, but if Emile is scum he prolly didn't know who Gerhard was and he killed him at twilight).

2) If meta-fishing is not a scum-tell, I have to re-read and see who are the players who tried to use it really bad. Igor is one.
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Post Post #412 (isolation #35) » Fri Dec 11, 2009 5:07 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

yes, it was a quick episode and it didn't last long (obviously I meant using the meta-fishing as argument for scumminess, sorry for being not clear). It was just the only one I could remember without re-reading. Interesting reaction, tho.

Parents visiting me for the w/e: I will not be technically V/LA, but I will not post as much as usual.
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Post Post #418 (isolation #36) » Sat Dec 12, 2009 3:05 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

I gotta be telegraphic:

post 414: Jamie explain his point of view on the Emile's case. Nothing new. Jamie's alingment will depend on what his FoS will turn out to be. Or perhaps not: he never really instsisted to have someone lynched. I have difficulties reading him.

post 415: Leon, second FoS mentioned in teh last posts, approves lynching Emile, teh first FoS. Original, indeed. LoL.

post 416: Jamie comments on Leon. I agree 100% so I have nothing to add.

post 417: ok, we wait then. But there was that reaction of yours you are still refusing to explain, huh?

@Emile: you better post some content. For instance answer this: since Leon wants you to die, would you agree on lynching him instead? Besides, who are your FoS's? What is starting to bother me is that you are not taking any positive position.

@everyone: I would like to collect your thoughts about Igor.
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Post Post #423 (isolation #37) » Sat Dec 12, 2009 10:05 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

@Leon: man, my post what not so drastic, nor it was against you. Asking player #2 if he would lynch player #1 doesn't mean that I want to lynch player #1. I have never had a case on you, and the first thing about you that bothered me was your declaration that you would support his lynch, which is quite natural, since someone is FoSing you as well. You say that you agreed on lynching him since day 1, and this is good enough an answer (even better since Emile is still lurking, which is not good).

As for me, I have kept my eye on Jamie since day 1 (always tried to explain why), and I switched on Stuart for the reasons I had explained little before Otto's crazy hammer. I am now trying to conclude something about Jamie, but I am unable to do it, cuz I cannot read him (see my previous post). Also, about Leon and Emile, I am not "ok for either": I have never said that I would vote Leon, and honestly I find the case against him extremely thin (if there actually is a case).

@Jamie: yes, Igor apparently helped scum-hunting, but scum-hunting never hit a scum, so far... I would be more comfortable about him being town if he was ready to take a position and vote for someone.
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Post Post #431 (isolation #38) » Sun Dec 13, 2009 1:30 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

Igor has a good point, my comment was out of place, as no votes had been cast, yet, but obviously I didn't find a very decisive activity of his in the previous days either. Anyway, I am the first who is still uncertain, and as I was leaning towards Emile, I now have to say that the discussion between Jamie and Leon is getting interesting. I do not understand what Jamie wants to do with a placeholder vote. I had a placeholder vote on him for two days, but at least I had reason for that and I tried to ask content-related questions. Is your reason for voting Leon just his alleged lack of contents?

@Edward: next time I read the word "idiot" in a post I ask for replacement. And if I were the mod I would kill the player who posts it.
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Post Post #435 (isolation #39) » Sun Dec 13, 2009 5:43 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

Here is the way I see the lynch options. Top-down in decreasing convenience.

1) Edward (supported by Igor). He was called scummy day one. The case was thin but he was unable to defend and made himself scummier. He finds himself in a hard situation and asks for replacement. Replacement comes. Re-reads. Thinks heck, how do I talk myself out of this mess? He leaves. Third replacement: rude, nervous, overaggressive. Worth thinking about, imo.

2) Emile (supported by Igor, Leon, some others). As I just posted, I was leaning towards him. But we already had a quicklynch, and we lost pr's, therefore I am a little reluctant as long as he does not post something more.

3) Jamie (supported by me). It is really hard to me to decide how I feel. Sometimes he looks a calm and reflexive town, then he has some incredible falls. He soft-fished on day 1 (which started my case on him), he tends to self-contradiction and he keeps a vote on Leon as placeholder out of a very thin reason. Also, he posts huge posts that normally turn around the same old points (who lurks and who does not, mainly) adding little new.

4) Igor (supported by no1, I guess). Overreaction in post 410, some obscure posting (to me at least). His attitude is of the type "I could accept both emile's and leon's lynch", which is never good. But no more than this. 4th in my top 5.

5) Leon (supported by Jamie). I do not FoS him, but since someone does I have to include him. I do not seem scumminess in his posts. Nor does Jamie, who keeps voting him, tho.

Also: at the very moment I get town-vibes by Andrew. Eager to read his next posts and his comment bout this list of mine.
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Post Post #444 (isolation #40) » Sun Dec 13, 2009 10:36 pm

Post by Claude Lefevre »

quick post from work.

1) Good post by Andrew. I agree with his reading of Emile & Jamie (ça va sans dire, I believe). Also: convenience is not the right word... lets say "the more interesting cases on the top, the thinner on the bottom" of the list. Anyway, I agree that we cannot but give Edward time. This third Edward opened in a very aggressive way, but he is doing interesting stuff now.

2) Ok Edward, I would not vote you for external reasons or for reasons depending on the behavior of Ed I and Ed II, but I do not like the way you put me as a third possible FoS just because I included you in my list. You are free to FoS me whenever you want and however you like, but you want to give some more reason than a counter-FoS.

3) Emile, you want to do better than keeping discussing Stuart's old stuff. You are being voted. What is your opinion on Jamie and Igor?

I am now reducing my options to Emile, Jamie and perhaps (PERHAPS) Igor. I believe we have a L-3 situation right now, so I am gonna place my vote as I did for Stuart, and hope it doesn't turn into a disaster again.
Vote: Emile
.
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Post Post #446 (isolation #41) » Mon Dec 14, 2009 1:08 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

sorry, English is my second language and I must have turned really stupid these days... I misunderstood your post, and I would like to ask you, for future reference, what a middle-of-the-pack mafia is. I am not familiar with the word.

Village idiot is a mafia terminology. Idiot is an insult. But this does not matter right now.
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Post Post #456 (isolation #42) » Mon Dec 14, 2009 11:41 pm

Post by Claude Lefevre »

I am not sure. The post by Igor does scream scum trying to get credit for hanging his partner. And Edward has a good point in post #451. Let us see if he can answer something that will not qualify as wifom or omgus.

But I also feel Jamie's posts 454 is very disturbing. He WIFOM's about never voting Emile, he still supports a Leon lynch although he stated his vote was a placeholder, and after keeping his FoS on Leon he sadly recognizes that Igor's scumminess.
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Post Post #458 (isolation #43) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 5:44 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

wait, didn't you say that you started the lynch on emile (which is false, btw, as Edward noticed)?

I don't see how this two posts can go together:
Igor Schultz wrote:Edward if I ping emmy would that gain town points or scum points. If she flips scum I was the one who voted first and who started this.
and
Igor Schultz wrote:The reason I posted my post was not to look scummy it was to show that edward was full of crap logic. Acording to him because I was first to vote I should be town. I had voted in the middle of all other votes. So this just goes to show that edwards point was just a nice smelly cow pie. You can still lynch me if you want for trying to make this point. I will go out clean so at this point you can lynch me or just see the real point of my last post. I still think emmy is a good lynch today.
also: how about Leon's post 452? He is right, isn't he?

@Jamie: please, answer me. How is or was Leon a better candidate than Emile? How is he now better than Igor?

Unvote; Vote: Igor

KMEOY: Emile, Jamie
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Post Post #460 (isolation #44) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 11:48 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

speaking of contradiction, Jaime:
Jaime Marcelle wrote: I never voted Emile because there were a lot more better candidates (Stuart, Otto, and Leon)
and
Jaime Marcelle wrote:I do not think that Leon is a better lynch then Emile.
I confirm my vote and my FoS's.
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Post Post #468 (isolation #45) » Wed Dec 16, 2009 8:28 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

I will be completely honest. As much as I do not like Jaime's posts, above all this statement (which is a terrible justification for a contradiction, imo)...
Jaime Marcelle wrote: Blargh. i should've reread my post to make sure it made sence.
...I am highly disturbed by both Igor's last posts, which do nothing but make me confirm once again my vote (along with my FoS's).

à propos FoS's, a votecount would help keeping an eye on them.

Mod, please, update the votecount from time to time


I see no reason to update it now, I have already given one this page. However, if you want I will record all FoS's from last votecount onwards...
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Post Post #484 (isolation #46) » Thu Dec 17, 2009 10:31 pm

Post by Claude Lefevre »

Peeps sorry I forgot putting the
V/LA
in the sig, anyway I'll be back on Sunday.
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Post Post #505 (isolation #47) » Mon Dec 21, 2009 1:31 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

I am back from V/LA. I read the activity of the last 48 hours and I see that no big stuff happened. Regarding the case on Emile && the case on Igor, I must say I see no decisive observation was made during my absence.

One thing that deserves a comment is Igor's post #500. I am slightly disturbed by one thing. In that post, as well as in the post I am now quoting:
Igor Schultz wrote:
Jaime Marcelle wrote:The beginning flavor text leads me to beleive that he was either scum or an SK. However, I still want to know are there multiple species of aliens?

Also, Gerhard seemed to be a VERY opportunistic scum: voting both Edward and Stuart when they were the most scummy people. He also attacked Orski (Edward's replacement) which leads me to beleive that whoever the replacement is for Orski is town.

Also, looking back I don't think he pointed anyone out as being town. Sure he defended people like Andrew said but that's not enough incriminating evidence for me to go on. Anyway, I'll keep thinking about this but for now I'll keep my vote off anyone.
yes I think I already told you this! he used what the game calls psy powers. He would contrl someone and kill through him. Thats how it works in the game. So he would be considered a mafia sk. I don't think that their is a 3rd party of any sort. Gerard was part of the scum faction. All of the aleins in x-com no matter of race work together never apart. It would help for everybody to actually play a round or two of x-com I have a download site alredy found: http://dosgamer.com/x-com-ufo-defense/, and tftd http://dosgamer.com/x-com-terror-from-the-deep/ you will also need dosbox to run these you can google that or go to: http://www.dosbox.com/download.php?main=1. Play one hour of each (once you get past the learning wall) and then come and ask the town if he was an sk. Try raiding a base in ether game and tell me his role. Go on any ol' mission and tell me if there is an sk.
Igor seems pretty sure about Gerhard alignment... can it be just that he knows the game X-COM? If I am wrong, then please write in a more respectable English. Also, trying to get credit for pinging sucm, which is btw not true, is something that I cannot forget so easily.

I do not feel any "genuine townie frustration" in Igor's posts, given the fact that there is no possible meta in this game, to post stuff like "ok, go on, lynch me, you'll see that I am town" means nothing to me.

I would like to answer Edward's question. I am voting Igor, but Emile remains my second FoS. If Igor is scum, which I believe, partner may be Jaime (I posted my reasons for FoSing him all along the thread). If Emile is scum, then I can only name some players who °prolly° are not scum, and namely Leon and Jaime.
I would be stunned if both Emile and Igor were scum (not impossible, tho: I have seen similar strategies played by smart scumparties: one must go, the other one will be considered clear).

I am generally getting town-vibes from Andrew and, even though I theoretically considered lynching him some posts ago, I gotta say I lean towards the idea that Edward may be town, too.

Mod: WE NEED VOTECOUNTS, plz
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Post Post #512 (isolation #48) » Mon Dec 21, 2009 10:20 pm

Post by Claude Lefevre »

I do not like post 506. Obviously if Igor should turn town (unlikely) I would say "shit" and I would try n find real scum (according to my already posted FoS's, probably Emile), unless town decided that me promoting Igor's lynch is worth a punishment :-) So what is the point in asking?

But on the other hand I do not understand what is going on here. For some reason, Emile's post 510 bothers me a lot (defense without real content). Also I wonder: after my post in which I explained that to me Igor and Jaime may be scum together, would they be so dumb to buddy this way? Probably not.

This is surely worth an
Unvote
and a question to Emile:

What is making Igor sink deeper and deeper in scumminess, exactly? Just the fact that he is accusing you?

@Edward:
this is important:
in post 504 you imply once again that scum knew Gerhard's identity and killed him anyway? Or you think some other player killed him? Please articulate your answer: discussion has been way too elusive on this point, imo.
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Post Post #517 (isolation #49) » Tue Dec 22, 2009 5:13 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

Edward Smilie wrote:
Claude Lefevre wrote:
@Edward:
this is important:
in post 504 you imply once again that scum knew Gerhard's identity and killed him anyway? Or you think some other player killed him? Please articulate your answer: discussion has been way too elusive on this point, imo.
Uh, no, clearly I did not imply anything of the kind. Discussion has been 'elusive' because to speculate on what kind of roles could have caused the twilight results is antitown. This question just looks like rolefishing to me.
Role-fishing you say? Yeah, possibly, but it was worth a shot for another reason. It is always possible that a scum player will do the mistake of revealing something he could know ONLY if he is scum. This is why I keep asking questions like this whenever someone mentions the Gerhard twilight death.

But you are right that discussing it too exhaustively would be an advantage for scum.
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Post Post #521 (isolation #50) » Tue Dec 22, 2009 11:32 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

@Andrew:

My FoS's remain pretty much the same, but I have 2 reasons for unvoting.

1) Emile's posts are not satisfactory: his defense is always an attack to Igor, while Igor at least tries to give argumentations about his own behavior. Tbh, I still fail feeling a "genuine town frustration" in Igor's activity, but Emile's post 510 is a simple OMGUS, and it contains two weaknesses: (1) he screams that the case on him is thin, he invokes probability, which sounds scummy, I would prefer if he said "I voted to townies but I had the good following reasons" and (2) he states that Igor is sinking in scumminess but I don't see why and he does not explain it.

2) I have linguistic difficulties understanding some of Igor's posts. I prefer to interact a little more before casting my vote.
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Post Post #532 (isolation #51) » Thu Dec 24, 2009 1:09 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

Time almost up and I am visiting my parents, so this is my last chance to post before deadline.

Empty defense by Emile. Bad comment by Jaime. If Emile flips scum, Jaime is my vote tomorrow (and hell I *did* FoS him since day 1). If Emile flips town, my next vote is Igor.

Hammah!

Vote: Emile


see you all after Santa's Journey.
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Post Post #556 (isolation #52) » Mon Dec 28, 2009 5:26 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

people, sorry for the lack of posts. I will post more substance later, but here are my considerations about no lynch.

Assume there is 2 scums left
Not much to say: we risk to be on lylo right now. A no lynch would give us a better odd to lynch the right scum tomorrow.

Assume there is 1 scum left
If we mislynch today, and scum kills tonite, then tomorrow is 4 player lylo. I do not like 4 player lylo's, cuz odds of screw up are 75%...
If we no lynch, and scum kills tonite, tomorrow we are 4 vs 1 and the day after we have a 3 player lylo.

Mathematically, a nl would be a good thing.

But of course good ol' scumhunt is way better: I will have to re-read, but there is for sure stuff we can use, I think (and I could at least name a couple of players who I NOW believe are most likely town).
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Post Post #560 (isolation #53) » Mon Dec 28, 2009 11:38 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

@Jaime:

1) You mean what I DID think? Nothing particular, I was FoSing you and then there was the Otto-chaos.
2) I do not know how I feel about Leon, he is not posting much content. I said he was prolly town because he is your opponent and I still got the feeling that you may be scum (plus, your case on him yesterday was ridiculously thin, and still you insisted).
3) FoS'ing him? Always criticized your "place holder" vote (starting from post 435), dude, and I have been FoSing YOU for the whole game LoL

Sidenote: I will reflect on post 544 by Jaime, I am wondering whether there may be something in his lapsus.
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Post Post #563 (isolation #54) » Mon Dec 28, 2009 10:48 pm

Post by Claude Lefevre »

Jaime, my attention was never really pointed at Leon and you know it. Read all my posts yesterday and the day before, he was always included in my lists only because he was FoSed by yourself, and I always criticized your choice.

You were my FoS since day 1: this is a clumsy attempt to anticipate any possible move of mine against you.

Now back to your post 544.
Jaime Marcelle wrote:OK, I'm back. Leon, why do you still feel the need to point out things like "I was right about Igor"? -_-
It should be a lapsus, as Andrew pointed out, but I am not so sure that Andrew's analysis is correct.
Andrew Lemarchand wrote:
Jaime Marcelle wrote:OK, I'm back.
Leon
Igor, why do you still feel the need to point out things like "I was right about
Igor
Emile"? -_-
I think that's what you meant to say.
Dear Jaime, is it a coincidence that Igor was killed a little after and flipped town? Or perhaps you are scum and you knew he was gonna die, you thought twilight was already over and you posted this question before realizing that Igor's alignment was still unknown to us?
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Post Post #566 (isolation #55) » Tue Dec 29, 2009 6:13 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

@Jaime:

Actually this was a trap. My explanation was weak, illogical and unacceptable, but somehow I got something interesting in your answer. You seem to be still convinced that at the time you posted Igor was already dead, which he wasn't (unless you sent his killing).

Also, excessive reaction to such a ridiculous attack.

FoS: Jaime.


Moreover, I never voted Leon, nor did I include him in my top FoS's (I only mentioned him as #5 in a list, explaining that I did it cuz someone else was FoSing him, and namely Jaime). Why are you trying to alter reality?

V/LA for 24 hours
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Post Post #569 (isolation #56) » Tue Dec 29, 2009 9:48 pm

Post by Claude Lefevre »

Think what you like, I wanted to test your reaction to a direct accusation, since all the times I confronted you during the game there was something else attention was drawn to.

Your reaction was pretty strong, even "excessive", as you admit.

There is not much to explain: this was not the purpose of my post, but for some reason you seem to be convinced that Igor was already dead as you posted.
Jaime Marcelle wrote:why would i ask Igor (a dead person) why he still needs to point out that he was right about himself? This is horrible, horrible logic.
Igor was not a dead person when you posted, and this is either a sign of confusion (nervous scum?) or a new and more interesting lapsus.

Finally, I do not see how my trap was fishy. You can say it was stupid, pointless, even scummy if you think so, but fishy??? explain the adjective, please.
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Post Post #571 (isolation #57) » Wed Dec 30, 2009 1:53 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

I would like to know everybody's opinion on Jaime and Spencer. The former is my FoS, as you all know, and the latter has posted so little content that I have almost no idea what I think about him.

About Leon:
Edward's last post makes a very good point, Leon seems to change his mind about other players and his only criterion seems to be "who is more likely not to vote me?". This can be scummy or extremely poor town-play. I would like Leon to explain what he thinks of Edward and what he thinks of me.

I would have expected more questions about my hammer, I would have expected to have a hard time explaining that I wanted to vote before deadline and so on, but almost nothing happened. I have the unpleasant feeling that scum is not attacking me because my behavior is somehow helping them, which forces me to keep my eyes open wide...

Oh, it's not like I am really V/LA, but there's family visiting me, so I apologize in anticipation if I will be slow at posting.
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Post Post #578 (isolation #58) » Fri Jan 01, 2010 10:15 pm

Post by Claude Lefevre »

Edward Smilie wrote:I'm very confident Jaime is town.

I'm a little worried about Spencer, since that role has basically lurked through the entire game. Perhaps not intentionally, but we've got virtually nothing to go on here, and that ain't good. That's not really someone you want around in potential lylo.
I agree about Spencer, and it is not like his last post is helping a lot:
Spencer Remmington wrote:I've been busy lately. I apologize for putting off my catch up post for so long. It's been difficult to really get into this game, but...I'm pretty sure I'm free tomorrow as I can't think of anything that I HAVE to do tomorrow. So, I'll be able to dedicate an hour or so to this game catching up and catching scum...

Um...though honestly I'm a little less confident in my scumhunting reading my notes before Emile's flip...
nobody requested a justification of your scumhunting skills, so why give one? excusatio non petita...
Jaime wrote:Think about it. You post horrible, crap logic and I reveal it. Now, if you were scum and you realized how bad the logic was you would want to try and pass it off to get the suspicion from it off of you, right? A very easy way to do this would be just to say "I knew it was bad logic. I just wanted to trap you." In this case, fishy means exactly what it says in the dictionary (outside of "Like a fish in form, smell, taste, or the like" since I am assuming bad logic and traps doesn't taste like fish). In this case fishy means questionable, improbable, unlikely, suspicious, etc
perhaps it wasn't all that useful, and perhaps wasn't even a great trap, but a town-aligned figure should not react that bad to an accusation they can easily deconstruct. And besides, I do not see what you mean with the sentence I quoted, but perhaps I am missing some nuances and subtleties of the English vernacular. Whatever. I do not trust you.
Leon Dreyfus wrote:Yeah, time constraints have been killing me. Plus I can't post on my phone in this game due to it being an alt. Which like 75% of my mafia posts are made from as of late.

Anyways, I'll be honest, and upfront about it. I haven't kept up with this game much. I have gutted this entire game, by what was going on here and now each time I checked. So if you want me to solidify my stance, it's pretty much all gut reads from what I've seen. I honestly look at Jaime in this regard:

Dumb or Scum.

He's done nothing that impresses me in a town aspect, now, if he's scum...my hat will go off to him for fooling the town.

Now, I guess it's bothersome, but I'll do it to keep the game from being lost on behalf of my laziness. I'm going to reread the entire game and post my thoughts. But not before January 1st. I have life to attend to.

Until then.
Leon, as much as I may share your feelings about Jaime, this post is not even close to answering what I asked you. I asked you to explain what you think about Edward and about me, and Jaime asked you to be detailed and accurate in your answer.
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Post Post #581 (isolation #59) » Sat Jan 02, 2010 12:22 pm

Post by Claude Lefevre »

@Jaime: you need to ebwop, u r not quoting Leon, but me.

@Edward: a matter of points of view. I keep feeling that Jaime already knew Igor was dying before the mod posted his death, and I keep feeling he was too nervous, but whatever, it's a feeling and I cannot convince anyone to share it, can I? I see that my lunge had no chance to provide us with definitive information in the first place.

Tomorrow I will do a re-read and try to understand if my long FoS on Jaime is actually worth something.

For the time being I have to notice that not only Leon's post did not answer any of our questions, but it also failed in providing any solid reason for his opinion about Jaime: scum or dumb due to lack of outstanding pro-town action is a label that could easily apply to most of the active players, except Edward (cuz he replaced late in the game).
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Post Post #592 (isolation #60) » Sat Jan 02, 2010 10:49 pm

Post by Claude Lefevre »

@Jaime: post 579; 584: seriously, do u misquote on purpose? cause it is pretty frequent now... 2 of 3 quotes are mistakenly attributed, and the ebwop is wrong, too... it just makes it a little hard to understand your posts, man :-)

I am still doing the re-read, sorry but Spencer accurate wall post (for which I thank him) is making the process slower.
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Post Post #613 (isolation #61) » Sun Jan 03, 2010 10:21 pm

Post by Claude Lefevre »

--not finished yet, I am doing my best but I am back at work these days--

still, I need to ask Leon a question, and I think it is pretty urgent.

post 597: you say we cannot mislynch, cuz in your opinion we are more or less on lylo (I dissent: if there were 3 scums alive they could prolly force a nl and they'd win). Then you vote. Then in post 605 you say we gotta keep scumhunting. do you realize that if you cast your vote on a townie, according to your theory, it would be potential game over? So there are just 2 possibilities:

1) u r lying and u r scum
2) u are really 100% convinced that Jaime is scum

which one?
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Post Post #621 (isolation #62) » Tue Jan 05, 2010 3:54 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

Leon, u did not answer me, even if u may think u did. Perhaps I was not clear enough. I repeat my question.

Do you realize that casting a vote as you did is extremely risky if you really believe that we are on lylo?
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Post Post #625 (isolation #63) » Thu Jan 07, 2010 3:38 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

Leon Dreyfus wrote:It's not gambling if it's a sure thing.
then u definitely think that Jaime is 100% scum?

This is weird. I have FoSed Jaime all along the game and I still don't trust him, but I cannot say I am 100% sure that he is scum, and I would support a NL today.

Why shouldn't I think that this is a desperate scum effort to get someone lynched?
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Post Post #628 (isolation #64) » Thu Jan 07, 2010 10:15 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

is deadline really so close?
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Post Post #637 (isolation #65) » Thu Jan 07, 2010 9:23 pm

Post by Claude Lefevre »

I am sorry Spencer. As much as I dislike Leon's posts, I do not see why Jaime voting Igor would have necessarily meant a scum-win. Are we even sure how many scums are(were) still alive?

All depends on Gerhard's position, imo. Assume we have 3scum+G, then it is evident that we now have 2 of them alive, and u would be right. But what if we had 2scum+G, and now there is but one? In this case a vote on Igor would have been a risk for Jaime, not a way to easy win.

Also: did Jaime have the hammer? I cannot reconstruct it from the thread (my bad). And if so, was he the only one who could have hammered? If more than one could have, then they are either all clear or your argument is not valid.

I do not know which one of the options (3+G or 2+G) is correct, and we must assume the worst possible scenario, but I would not say that Jaime is cleared by your point.
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Post Post #656 (isolation #66) » Sat Jan 09, 2010 7:05 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

Edward wrote:That I'm currently finding it very hard to see a scumgroup where there's more than one person left which doesn't include Claude.
[/quote]

This is true, and this is exactly why I am no big fun of the 3+Gerhard theory :-D I want to add, tho, that you (Edward) could as well be a scum-buddy of mine, of Andrew and even of Jaime and Spencer. Our positions are pretty symmetric.

But this is a technical note, and not the direction of my thoughts. Here is my situation: I do not trust Jaime, but I have no concrete evidence against him. If you want me to post my summary of my reasons to FoS him during the game, it will take a while, but I can do it. You guys need it?

On the other side of the barricade we have Leon, whose behavior in the last 2 or 3 pages is terrible, but then again, so were Stuart's and Igor's.

I like the idea of a NL, because I think that:

1) in case there are 2 scum, tomorrow we will be 3 vs 2, which gives us a 40% of hitting scum even if we voted random and we would also have a lot of chances of putting scum in the corner if we ask the right questions.

2) in case there is but 1 scum, tomorrow we will be 4 vs 1; if we myslynch its gonna be 3 vs 1 at twilight and a 3-player lylo on day 6. 3-player lylo is a good situation for town, better than a 3 vs 1 4-player lylo on daytime, which would give us worse odds (25% on random vote) of lynching scum.
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Post Post #662 (isolation #67) » Sun Jan 10, 2010 9:39 pm

Post by Claude Lefevre »

@Edward:

Andrew looks town. I posted several times about "people being most likely town": I was thinking of him.

Jaime and Leon are unlikely to be scumbuddies, agree on that.

I honestly do not see where I and Spencer buddied.

I will post more later, sorry for lurking: long day at work today.
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Post Post #665 (isolation #68) » Mon Jan 11, 2010 10:26 pm

Post by Claude Lefevre »

I now see what you mean and the analysis is correct. My bad. Despite my best efforts I am ESL :-)

Quick questions round:

1) Leon: do you agree that if I were scum Spencer would prolly be my buddy?
2) Jaime: What do you think of Edward?
3) Edward: if Jaime were scum, do you think we would suspect you to be his buddy?
4) Spencer: who would be your main suspect if Edward were night-killed?
5 Andrew: assume Leon and Jaime were both town. Give me your readings on the remaining three of us.
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Post Post #671 (isolation #69) » Thu Jan 14, 2010 3:30 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

to make the discussion restart... the really interesting gone was the first, but it's the only one that got no answers...

also, the only reason why I am discussing the possibility that given players are nk-ed is that it seemed extremely likely to me that this day will end in a nl. In a different situation I would have just asked "what if x flips town/scum".

whatever
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Post Post #676 (isolation #70) » Fri Jan 15, 2010 1:38 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

again, Jaime. In a different phase of game, in order to ask people about their own attitude towards the possible deaths of given players, I would have asked "What if xxx got lynched?" or simply "what if xxx flips town/scum?", but in this case I felt like using the NK example cuz I was convinced that the day would end with a nl.

You can say you do not believe me (it's gonna be a good moment for that: carpe diem!), but how is my post 671 unclear?
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Post Post #678 (isolation #71) » Fri Jan 15, 2010 12:14 pm

Post by Claude Lefevre »

cause I wanted to speculate about people whose alignment was hypothetically established, and the only realistic way for me to do it was discussing hypothetical deaths. Also, I probably also felt like we are in such a late phase that hiding roles may not be very useful anymore.

Besides, how is asking my questions fishier than calling a mass-role for tomorrow?
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Post Post #685 (isolation #72) » Sat Jan 16, 2010 12:46 pm

Post by Claude Lefevre »

Andrew Lemarchand wrote:Since this could be it for me, take a long, hard look at Claude before too rashly deciding between Leon/Jaime.
malthusis wrote:
Able Seaman Andrew Lemarchand, Vanilla Townie
was killed Twilight 4.
Shocker.

Two things I need to say about massclaim.

1) I think it could be useful, since we may be on lylo and Edward's argumentations are right.
2) If we are not on lylo, and a player is almost-cleared by massclaim, they will be dead next twilight.

To me, pro's are stronger than contra's, anyway. Are we random-claiming or someone wanna call an order?
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Post Post #689 (isolation #73) » Sun Jan 17, 2010 1:41 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

my list would be

Jaime
me
Spencer
Edward

@Spencer: obvious lynch on Lylo?
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Post Post #692 (isolation #74) » Sun Jan 17, 2010 6:48 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

I am a nilla able seaman.

Jaime, your turn.
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Post Post #701 (isolation #75) » Mon Jan 18, 2010 7:01 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

Okay, sorry for the delay, here come my comments.

First, I don't see it as very unrealistic that all of us except scum -who are obviously lying- are actually nilla's. In fact, we lost enough PR's to make this possible.

Second, I don't like it when a player directly after the end of the night suddenly states "I was V/LA" as Leon does in his post #695. I call this scummy.

Moreover, I do not like the fact that he proposed to interrupt the massclaim. "Oh my, we all claimed nilla! If the last player claims uncounterclaimed PR he will be almost clear " thinks Scummy Scummson "let's try and stop the massclaim". This argument I can use against Leon, but also against Jaime, who, to my surprise, agreed in interrupting the massclaim.

Also, I think Edward has a good point about Jaime's "merely-idiosyncrasy" and the answer by Jaime... well, it's divided into two parts.
First part: "I forgot the content of my own PM" --> I think any townie who tries building a case on a misquoted PM would go check his own.
Second part: "I though he meant it was his name instead of able seaman" --> this sounds like a not very convincing excuse to me.

Finally, a sidenote about Spencer's role. Dude, you do have a special power, can't you see? I bet we all are leaning towards believing you are town, because "come on, who would invent such an incredible and pointless story?"... This is your special power: you are the closest to be cleared among us. If the mod ignores your request, some of us will prolly believe that your story is true. If you are scum, this may be a very good move.
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Post Post #707 (isolation #76) » Mon Jan 18, 2010 9:32 pm

Post by Claude Lefevre »

Edward sez my theory for the attempted interruption of the mass claim makes no sense. He is right. But then why would anyone try to interrupt it?

also: I misinterpreted post #696 by Jaime. I thought he meant he agreed to interrupt the mass claim. He was just agreeing on the "too many nilla's" problem. I withdraw it and apologise: ESL.

Finally: I don't understand why Spencer's replacement was supposed to receive an updated pm. Tbh, what I really don't understand is why mod is telling us this... but fine, as weird as the thing may be, I am now almost convinced that Spencer is in fact town.

And Spencer being very likely town has some consequences that make be believe we are actually not on lylo. Now I have no time now, but I am going to explain later.
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Post Post #709 (isolation #77) » Tue Jan 19, 2010 10:42 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

No. I have no theory whatsoever. Only my point of view. Knowing that I am town, and giving Edward and Spencer for almost clear, I can see no way for Jaime and Leon to be buddies. Nothing illuminating from the point of view of you all.

If you decide to lynch me today - but I honestly don't understand why -, I will not cry so loud, since I am very much convinced that we are not on lylo. I'd just hope the next choice would be the right one. At the moment my vote would be on Leon.

Since I do not understand the case on me - even if I can see a couple of dumb moves I did back in game, and namely my "trap" and the questions I asked yesterday - I would like to have a summary of it. Would it be okay if I called an order for you guys to post it? It could be useful tomorrow if I do end up dying.
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Post Post #713 (isolation #78) » Wed Jan 20, 2010 5:54 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

I agree. There is no reason.

I'll add one thing: some pages ago we discussed about how many scums were in this game. Jaime was extremely convinced when he answered "3 + Gerhard". Now everyone is convinced that we still have 2 scums. I keep believing that this is a mistake.

I still believe that there were very likely 3 scums in total, including Gerhard.

There is also another thing. Observe that the main argument clearing Jaime depends on the idea that we have 2 scums left.

That said, my "virtual vote" remains on Leon, whom I beg to post some content. But do not forget that once I flip town and the game goes on, Jaime will have no alibi.
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Post Post #715 (isolation #79) » Thu Jan 21, 2010 3:55 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

yes, Jaime, but given the situation from my point of view the scum is most likely either you or Leon. And I do not think you could be team-buddies.
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Post Post #717 (isolation #80) » Thu Jan 21, 2010 12:17 pm

Post by Claude Lefevre »

pro-town-ness is all I have to work with, and I do not see any reason to think Edward should be scum. As for Spencer, come again, can you articulate more? You believe that he may be scum even though mod confirmed his story?
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Post Post #718 (isolation #81) » Thu Jan 21, 2010 12:18 pm

Post by Claude Lefevre »

I forgot: V/LA for 24 hours from now.
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Post Post #725 (isolation #82) » Sat Jan 23, 2010 7:36 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

if Spencer was scum, he wouldn't even need to refer to the real content of a role PM... but Jaime is right right, Spencer is not clear, but from my PoV he is the 2nd closest to clear. Nobody is actually clear, according to Jaime's definition.

But these are platitudes.

@Spencer: your ideal course of action is: today me, Jaime tomorrow. Which means you trust Leon. Would you tell me more about this?
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Post Post #728 (isolation #83) » Sun Jan 24, 2010 6:12 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

ESL, so too much slang for me in the last two posts. What is a golden egg and what does a stretch mean?
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Post Post #737 (isolation #84) » Sun Jan 24, 2010 10:43 pm

Post by Claude Lefevre »

@Spencer: I disagree and I think that by my turning town you will only get the doubt on Jaime and Leon and one dayvote when you will actually need two.

Also, I disagree because whatever my readings of the game may be, I cannot trust anyone. If Edward was the last scum playing a brilliant game, we would have already lost, since after Andrew's death (hey hey, look, he told me to consider voting me if he died) he's become like the closest to clear and therefore unofficial town leader.

Still, I am ready to bet that there is but one scum left. If you think that Spencer's plan makes sense then go ahead, hammer me and try to do a good job tomorrow.

@Jaime: do you realise how many times in this game you told "I agree with", "You are right, my bad" and so on?
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Post Post #739 (isolation #85) » Mon Jan 25, 2010 12:29 pm

Post by Claude Lefevre »

you are right (<-- LoL), this mistake does not change the situation that much, as I am convinced that it's either you or Leon.
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Post Post #744 (isolation #86) » Tue Jan 26, 2010 4:25 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

This is getting ridiculous. I already have a vote on me, and it is a wrong vote, but whatever. My hypothetical vote on Leon has no reason to remain hypothetical any longer. You can hammer me anytime. If another townie (assuming as I do that Ed is town) votes me, scum may easily hammer, so screw it.

Vote: Leon


(besides, the reason why scum is prolly not yet voting me is because they don't want to draw attention, and this analysis is particularly fit for Leon, the biggest suspect after me)

(besides 2: if I were scum, I would have killed Edward, not Andrew: me and Edward never got along very well during the game, and he was bothered by my allegedly scummy questions as much as Andrew)

Unless you have any further questions, I have said all I had to say and I suggest to consider this situation as a crossed vote. Leon votes me, and Spencer and Jaime will be free to decide how and whom they will hammer.
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Post Post #748 (isolation #87) » Thu Jan 28, 2010 1:33 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

Edward: I prefere to vote Leon today and hypothetically Jaime tomorrow because Leon's post stating that he would have been v/la during night seems etremely scummy to me. I already posted on this.

1) Whats the point in crying wifom wifom when I am at L-2 (L-1 now)? Of course I know, so what? I had to say it and you know I did. Someone must be proud of the last night kill right now.

2) Jaime, thx for pointing out what Edward already said about wifom. Once again you add no content and you just hide joining the choir.

3) Jaime, what is the point in putting me at L-1 in a situation that some still think to be a lylo and then asking not to hammer?

Meh, such a fail... not only because I don't like to die, but also because Spencer's plan has a weakness: when I flip town you will lynch Jaime. And at the moment I find Leon scummier, therefore I don't like what's happening.

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