Open 175 - Picking Simplicity (Game Over)

[MichelSableheart]

SpyreX, a couple of points.

First of all, I don't understand the smiley in your first paragraph. Why does the fact that I correctly used logic make you sad?

Secondly, I simply disagree with your statement that the SK is better of shooting pro-town players, especially considering that he isn't guaranteed to hit mafia even when he tries. I believe that the kill made by the SK (and therefore not influenced whatsoever by mafia) is more likely to get rid of a mafia member then the town lynch (over which mafia has at least a little influence). However, my main argument was that, given that we know who is the SK, mafia have an extremely strong incentive to take him out (eliminating the only kill they don't control in any way).

Third, there is no 'a' in Michel

And finally:

However, this is kind of ignoring the OTHER major issue at hand: you have said, clearly, Iguana is your pick for an anti-town role and have opted not to vote them. Nothing would suggest that your level of confidence in your other suggestion is anywhere NEAR that.

Read the paragraph where I voted yabbaguy again, please. I believe that the term "scummier" definately implies that my level of confidence that he is mafia is higher then my level of confidence that Iguana is the SK. And I believe that the reasoning I gave supports that statement.

[StrangerCoug]

Second, I think Flava is town. Everyone gets gut scum reads on Flava, and I don't understand why.

Flava Flave being scum wouldn't completely surprise me, but my current read on him is actually neutral/borderline town.

[saberwolf]

Second, I think Flava is town. Everyone gets gut scum reads on Flava, and I don't understand why.

Flava Flave being scum wouldn't completely surprise me, but my current read on him is actually neutral/borderline town.

He just doesnt seem that different in play than from when he was playing in killers mafia where I NKed him there for his gameplay which matches this one and he turned up goon.

[SpyreX]

Sorry I guess I wasn't being clear in the issues with every other aspect of that aside from the one I brought to light.

Which, yea. My bad for being tired. The logical PATTERN is right but it is an absolute non-sequitor so the remains.

And like I said at this juncture killing town does an SK a lot more good but if we're gonna go "WELL THEY MIGHT KILL SCUM" simple probability says that they're going to kill town more often than not.

And while I'm alive you're never, ever going to see an Iguana lynch. Doubly so on these amazing grounds.

I'll go ahead when I have time and compare the language you've used towards yabba versus Iguana.

Then we'll lynch you and you'll flip SK. Everyone wins!

[MichelSableheart]

The logical PATTERN is right but it is an absolute non-sequitor so the remains.

I think I'll need even more explanation. Why is it a non-sequitur?

Let's look at my original argument a little closer:

• WarWound is unhelpful, and infuriates other players.
  
• However, he did not make any scumtells.
  
• He is probably a VI, and the scum are likely to try to mislynch him.
  
• He can only be mafia if Iguana is his partner.
  
• Iguana is likely the SK.

So basically, I believed that WarWound is a mislynch, and my conclusion that Iguana is likely SK supports that fact.

[SNIP] but if we're gonna go "WELL THEY MIGHT KILL SCUM" simple probability says that they're going to kill town more often than not.

Same argument goes for the town lynch. Except that one is also partially controlled by mafia.

And while I'm alive you're never, ever going to see an Iguana lynch. Doubly so on these amazing grounds.

An Iguana lynch isn't what I'm trying to achieve. I want the mafia to kill her, because she is the SK.

[semioldguy]

Vote Count 14:

With 17 alive, it takes 9 to lynch.

saberwolf

(2) – Iguana, Nikanor

Pomegranate

(2) – Head_Honcho, Col.Cathart

WarWound

(2) – Toro, StrangerCoug

yabbaguy

(1) – MichelSableheart

Antihero

(1) – Flava Flave

MichelSableheart

(1) – SpyreX

Not Voting (8) –

Blastinus, skitzer, yabbaguy, WarWound, Grimmy, Antihero, saberwolf, Pomegranate

Notes:

* Searching for replacements for Antihero, Pomegranate, WarWound and Blastinus.
* Deadline currently on hold.

[SpyreX]

* WarWound is unhelpful, and infuriates other players.
* However, he did not make any scumtells.
* He is probably a VI, and the scum are likely to try to mislynch him.

* He can only be mafia if Iguana is his partner.

* Iguana is likely the SK.

There's the main breakdown in your causality. It is not an IFF scenario.

Same argument goes for the town lynch. Except that one is also partially controlled by mafia.

And majority controlled by town. Which is far more than either scum kill will ever be.

[Head_Honcho]

urgh, v/la until thurs

[Grimmy]

v/la until monday, Have a good holiday all

Grimmy

[semioldguy]

hohum replaces Pomegranate

Kreriov replaces Antihero

[Kreriov]

Hello all, I will be reading as fast as I possibly can! Do not expect much except an 'I am sure full' post on Thursday or this weekend. Tomorrow and Friday should be plenty to at least get a feel for the game and form some opinions.

[Kreriov]

Ok, did a quick read of Flava Flave ISO because, well, he is now voting me. I must say, I really do not get it. I will be reading Antihero in ISO next then probably skim the whole thread. The answer to the following might be already there, but I am just curious as to why, after spending almost his entire time grilling and arguing with Pom, listing many others as scummy (sometimes including Antihero, sometimes not), and almost only mentioning Antihero in passing (one post that he doesn't like post 400 and one other with an actual list), Flava suddenly catapults Antihero to the top of his suspect list. One vote is certainly not a big deal to me, i just want to know what change with Pom that Flava completely dropped him. And pardon if all this is meaningless after I complete my catching up. At least I have some thoughts down to work from now!

[Kreriov]

Sorry, disregard that post. I did not realize Antihero was himself a replacement of 12keyblade. My predecessors have been big suspects of Flava for awhile it seems.

[Iguana]

I disagree with Michel about the Iguana thing, but he DID get me thinking more about who the Sk may be. But I have a question about that. Is it more helpful or hurtful to us to have the SK alive right now, as someone pointed out, the SK has to worry about the mafia just as much as we do, so, at what point in the game would it be more feasible to hunt for the SK, or do we lump in the SK with the mafia and look for them as a group?

Ummm... dead SK is better then alive SK. Presented with the option of guarenteed either lynch, I would take SK in a heartbeat, cuts it down to one kill a night (x-kill not guarenteed), and cop wont "clear" the SK.

@MS - If I had the option to go back to D1, I would lynch zwet again. He was anti-town, he was useless, he was scummy, he was a great D1 scum lynch, and excellent utility lynch.

@mod

- If a player with a night action needed replacing, what happens?

[SpyreX]

^

<3

This is sense.

Although I'm not sure what I think about that mod question considering what we've seen happen. I'd REALLY rather it not be answered in any fashion personally.

[semioldguy]

@mod

- If a player with a night action needed replacing, what happens?

Their choice is made at random (with 'no-choice' also being a random option).

[StrangerCoug]

* WarWound is unhelpful, and infuriates other players.
* However, he did not make any scumtells.
* He is probably a VI, and the scum are likely to try to mislynch him.

* He can only be mafia if Iguana is his partner.

* Iguana is likely the SK.

There's the main breakdown in your causality. It is not an IFF scenario.

Good point against MichelSableheart.

[MichelSableheart]

There's the main breakdown in your causality. It is not an IFF scenario.

I'm still not understanding. What exactly isn't an IFF scenario, and why?

He was anti-town, he was useless, he was scummy, he was a great D1 scum lynch, and excellent utility lynch.

the only one on that list that I definately agree with is that he was antitown.

He definately wasn't useless. Even without making much sense players can still be reasonable good scumhunters (see DGB)

The only reason he was considered scummy is one of his remarks, interpreted incorrectly.

I'm not entirely sure what you mean with great D1 scum lynch.

How can an utility lynch (according to the wiki the waste of a day) ever be 'excellent'?

[SpyreX]

IFF is if and only if. The kind of causality you are trying to slide across in that statement (which isn't true).

And I'll take umbrage FOR DGB for that latter statement - once you see the method to the madness DGB is a pretty damn good player. I've got no issue with zwet's play but apples and oranges.

It wasn't a utility lynch. It was a lynch on a scummy player.

Nice hindsight call there tho'.

[yabbaguy]

Michel:

Because there is someone scummier around. Someone who, like Iguana, has been hoping for a zwet lynch from the beginning...

This sounds like Don LaFontaine with a propaganda-esque first sentence. Propaganda's the work of scum because it's the very thing they do, manipulation. Why did you decide to throw that in?

You also refuse to acknowledge my pro-town explanation without actually contradicting it. He just merely piggybacks on his initial points "But I still believe X,Y,Z." Do you deny that my points are actually equally plausible? I think it's another situation of innocent-until-proven-guilty.

@Nikanor: I think it's actually a great scum tactic to go after someone who's coming under fire and try to work up a wagon on them. Why do you think it's extremely implausible?

@SpyreX: Do you get emotionally passionate about Mafia in general? The fact that all your posts are riddled with emotes and emotions has me a bit on edge, like you're almost joking around.

Also:

Although I'm not sure what I think about [Iguana's] mod question considering what we've seen happen. I'd REALLY rather it not be answered in any fashion personally.

Why?

[SpyreX]

I tend to get heated, if you will (some call me abrasive).

As for that question, its simple:

The only role that could possibly be talking about is the cop. Scott was active and there were two kills. So, if the mod said something that could have even -insinuated- that night would have been altered waiting for the replacements welp, that sure narrows down the suspect pool for the last pr.

Which isn't helpful.

[StrangerCoug]

Michel:

Because there is someone scummier around. Someone who, like Iguana, has been hoping for a zwet lynch from the beginning...

This sounds like Don LaFontaine with a propaganda-esque first sentence. Propaganda's the work of scum because it's the very thing they do, manipulation. Why did you decide to throw that in?

Who is Don LaFontaine?

[hohum]

hey guys, this was supposed to be a cross-replace but that really didn't come to fruition.

I'll pick up the role anyways; however, right now I'm technically V/LA as I'm stuck in Central Texas with no clutch for my truck and spotty connectivity at best.

I'll try and get caught up over the long holiday weekend.

[yabbaguy]

Vote: StrangerCoug

for not making any attempt to look up the answer himself.

...

Unvote

[Col.Cathart]

Ok, sorry guys for low post frequency lately. Mid-term finals and Assassin's Creed II ate the whole lot of my time usually available for some scumhunting. Thankfully, tomorrow morning, I'll have the last exam, so I'll probably be able to do some recap.