Mini 880 - Mini Quick and Dirty - Game Over


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Post Post #500 (ISO) » Sun Dec 06, 2009 2:14 pm

Post by BigBear »

Sorry guys, Grandmother passed away the other week, the funeral was over Friday and Saturday, I will also allow a deadline extension. Initial deadline was supposed to be Tuesday at 11:59 est. However I will push it back to Thursday at 11:59 pm.


Vote CountPapa Zito - (1) - ODDin
ODDin - (2) - AGar, Charlatan
Zorblog - (2) - Papa Zito, VP Balter
AGar - (2) - Raskol. Albert B. Rampage


Not Voting

Ojanen, Scien, Zorblog


Checking for prods right now.
Prodded Scien and Papa Zito.
Last edited by BigBear on Sun Dec 06, 2009 2:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #501 (ISO) » Sun Dec 06, 2009 2:20 pm

Post by Scien »

Sigh... second prod even.

I never am able to post during the weekends. But I am around. If I am not manditorially replaced now, you can expect something from me tomorrow.
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Post Post #502 (ISO) » Sun Dec 06, 2009 3:18 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

Sorry, my vote was in the middle of my post.

Unvote, Vote: Raskol
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Post Post #503 (ISO) » Sun Dec 06, 2009 3:39 pm

Post by Papa Zito »

I went and played in the snow and now I'm sick. It was worth it to make the snowman but goddamn. Make the screen stop moving.
BigBear wrote:Not Voting
Ojanen, Scien, Zorblog
This is fail.

Troll's trying to lurk to deadline.
Raskol wrote:PZ, your current top three scum suspects, please?

Also, what do you think about ABR/Amished?
Troll (obv)
Scien
ODDin

No issues with ABR/Amished at this point.
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Post Post #504 (ISO) » Mon Dec 07, 2009 2:51 am

Post by VP Baltar »

PZ, what are your thoughts on the Raskol case I put forth? I think it's better than "fencesitting" against Troll.

Also, what are your suspicions on Scien? He's bothering me a bit, but I can't quite put my finger on it.
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Post Post #505 (ISO) » Mon Dec 07, 2009 5:48 am

Post by Ojanen »

I had a tentative townread on Raskol earlier, although he's seemed uninterested today. VP, what was the game with him and Serial, Commie mafia?

--- ---
Ojanen wrote:
Papa Zito wrote:It was after. I came back, explained the SC thing, VP posted some drivel, and ODDin sagely nodded his head to it. The End.
Thanks.
ODDin, I'd like you to examine your case based on this information and tell if it changes anything in your perception.
ODDin, I would have really wanted you to do this.
Basically, I thought your case was at best miscommunication born out of the fact you assumed Papa Zito was referring to the first wave of you suspecting him early, at worst legitimately scummy. I wanted to observe you more based on your potential reevaaluation, but you ignored my request.
ODDin on Papa Zito wrote:When this is pointed out, he doesn't say anything on the subject and essentially disregards the issue.
Looking at some hypocracy here on an identical topic, although I did spoonfeed somewhat less obviously.

Why ODDin thought the Papa Zito vote was based on false accusations etc.
ODDin wrote:1) My vote on eKim wasn't random. I voted for him because I felt he was trying to keep the game in the RVS and silence Scien's arguments against AGar. I'm not saying it's a strong argument, but it sure isn't "ooh his name has 4 letters so he must be scum" random.
The amount of accusation ODDin used in the second wave of his Papa Zito suspicion (
before
Papa voted/accused him)
ODDin wrote:So yes, PZ, you pretty much lied - at any rate, you've created a very wrong impression. Also, you're not really doing much of a job to contribute more - you just laugh of the things said against you, trying to make Scien look foolish (which isn't a valid defence).
I feel the whole deal about Zito getting facts wrong was there to some extent only if ODDin thought Zito was talking about the early suspicions, not the second wave, and I find the unwillingness to comment scummy.

I don't often like the grandmother-waving-finger theory tone in ODDin's posts - for example from D1, the reasoning apart from alleged misrepping from Zito to his vote (acknowledged though by him as not a major part of it):
Ojanen wrote:
ODDin wrote:I'll tell you how, I believe, the impression was created. You said your vote on SC was serious. However, you didn't explain why - which you should've, for that matter, as "why?" would've obviously been the immediate follow up question, as indeed it was.
You not answering it in advance feels like an attempt at creating confusion and getting a chance to post more and thus appear more active (not only do you say X, but you also answer to "why X?" later - two posts at the price of one.)

Now, VP immediately assumed that the vote was serious - a pretty fair assumption to make. You say a vote is serious, people assume it means it's backed by a case of some sort.
Part of the problem was that you were V/LA, thus unable to correct the wrong impression more quickly. However, you really should've taken a moment to think before posting, and you'd have realised that when you say a vote is serious, you might as well answer what are the serious reasons behind it (the fact that somebody had asked you whether the vote was serious obviously means he didn't understand why you'd made it).
If pushing for a bandwagon as a reason itself is enclosed at the time I would imagine the assumed stirring would lose some of its point. Seeing the underlined as scummy is shaky, really, postcount upping by one as scum motivation?
The answer was more theory and no scum motivation, here's the link.

In isoing ODDin I earlier came up with this tone as a recurring thing.

I've got a bunch of other stuff with other people I wanna address but they will come in bits today due to life.

vote ODDin
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Post Post #506 (ISO) » Mon Dec 07, 2009 5:52 am

Post by Ojanen »

Sorry, was hitting timeouts, thus double post.
@mod: can you please remove the previous post?
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Post Post #507 (ISO) » Mon Dec 07, 2009 6:03 am

Post by VP Baltar »

Oj wrote:I had a tentative townread on Raskol earlier, although he's seemed uninterested today. VP, what was the game with him and Serial, Commie mafia?
I would assume, though SC didn't say specifically. I saw that he replaced later into that game, but he still would have read the first day I assume and it is pretty well known across the board that SC is generally not that helpful on Day1. What was your townread based on exactly?
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Post Post #508 (ISO) » Mon Dec 07, 2009 6:31 am

Post by Raskol »

Oh wow, you're going to love this, VP:

I've asked to be replaced. I can't find any interest in mafia at the moment, and I think I'm going to be taking a break from the game entirely for at least a few weeks. I'm pretty burnt out.

I've been wanting to do this for a while now, but I held off thinking it would pass and I'd get back into things: I haven't. So, since it's not fair of me to force you guys to continue to put up with me if I can't motivate myself to get more involved, I think it's better that I give someone else a shot at livening things up a bit.
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Post Post #509 (ISO) » Mon Dec 07, 2009 6:36 am

Post by VP Baltar »

Well, it's like four days from deadline....I don't think it's really fair to your team, regardless of alignment, to replace out. But that's your decision I suppose.
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Post Post #510 (ISO) » Mon Dec 07, 2009 8:01 am

Post by BigBear »

Looking for a replacement for Raskol, ask your friends if they are interested.
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Post Post #511 (ISO) » Mon Dec 07, 2009 1:10 pm

Post by Ojanen »

@VP: I remember I had judged aloud what Raskol quotes here as a slight towntell because it seemed honest instead of checked, but he refused the townlean by saying it was inaccurate. I remember getting some further honest vibes from that.
Isoing him again, there's a bunch of meh theory and he does get very uninvolved starting from the latter stages of D1 with the Sando vote, but he just doesn't read as that scummy in my gut, more like too serious about optimal play + losing interest.
That being said, Raskol not at least responding in some way to the case against him on his way out is annoying.
I thought your meta point about Raskol supposedly knowing SC's style was potentially good. I checked out Commie mafia a bit - Serial replaced in around page 10 and had started to change his playstyle already then to townhunting. Otoh he was also argumenting a scum read from the bat there on D1.
ABR wrote:
Ojanen wrote:This is inaccurate on a skim.
No, it's pretty accurate. In iso, post 18, post 16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, 10 and 9 all mention Sando / Serial in some way. You can't deny he had a special focus on them.

Since one was the main wagon and the other active and discussed quite a lot by the town as a whole this seems a bit of a red herring, many of those listed Zorblag posts talked about several things and people besides the Aussie corpses.
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Post Post #512 (ISO) » Mon Dec 07, 2009 1:15 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

Well I guess Raskol won't be sticking out the rest of the day. This hurts my soul a bit, but I don't know if I can lynch a player slot that has been vacated. Given this turn of events, I'd be up for an AGar lynch, but people need to start talking here.

Unvote, Vote: AGar
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Post Post #513 (ISO) » Mon Dec 07, 2009 1:25 pm

Post by Albert B. Rampage »

Ojanen wrote:Since one was the main wagon and the other active and discussed quite a lot by the town as a whole this seems a bit of a red herring, many of those listed Zorblag posts talked about several things and people besides the Aussie corpses.
It's possible that I overestimate Zorblag and am just paranoid around him sometimes.

The wagons I can get behind right now are AGar and ODDin.
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Post Post #514 (ISO) » Mon Dec 07, 2009 1:57 pm

Post by Scien »

VP wrote:I don't really want to get into this again because it is pointless by now, but I still feel I was correct.
I wasn't really trying to get you to go into it again. I just hold it as a meh moment, and it is part of the reason for my current views towards you.
VP wrote:You mean the shit wagon against confirmed town SC? Sure.
Heh. Hindsight is fun. You didn't know that he was town at the time, in theory, however.
VP wrote:What do you mean "something else"? What would that something else be? Also, do you not feel either of those argument were genuine?
Some other motive, I don't know what yet. I personally think the PapaZ argument sounded a bit... er... awkward we'll say. But I guess that comes from me reading between the lines. What I took for a granted implication in his 'lol scum' post, you seemed lost from to the point that it made you suspicious. Manipulation or just not seeing the situation, well I guess we will see soon enough.
VP wrote:lol, I was? Where? I have barely mentioned PZ today.
Well that probably flys since it was a quiet day until recently. When I wrote that note I was talking about you post 36 in iso. I should say that 'on PZ immediately' or whatever I said would be incorrect at this point. Even though one of your first big points was against him today, but you quickly looked elsewhere...
VP wrote:PapaZ was not a legitimate lynch candidate when I was going on my V/LA at the end of day 1. It was going to be Sando or Amished. No lynch should never be an option on Day 1 and I like to do what I can to make sure that isn't going to happen. As I've already explained, I started to have misgivings about lynching Sando after my long dispute with him and his frustration began to feel more honest, so I put my vote on Amished, who I felt more confident about.
Theory smoke? And yes I agree with the theory smoke, but my confusion is more than what you are suggesting with the theory talk. If you have time to come change it before deadline, why not leave it where your suspicions lie. You said you would be back by the time deadline approached. However, you decided that your strongest suspect is not good enough anymore and subscribe to an end of day either/or? I see this as a bit funny and worth looking at. Why am I wrong?

[more later... I am still rushed and opening dialog with VP is my main goal here]

When I was skimming over the weekend I saw PapaZ and VP, both list me on top three I think (or maybe VP just said he had doubts about me). It both cases that seemed like a new trend, could you guys present your cases? Or concerns.
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Post Post #515 (ISO) » Mon Dec 07, 2009 3:17 pm

Post by BigBear »

crypto replaces Raskol. Effective immediately. If need be, deadline may be extended again.
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Post Post #516 (ISO) » Mon Dec 07, 2009 4:12 pm

Post by crypto »

Papa Zito wrote:I feel like I can read AGar at this point in my career...
Please expand.

Unvote: AGar. Vote: Zorblag.
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Post Post #517 (ISO) » Mon Dec 07, 2009 4:23 pm

Post by AGar »

crypto wrote:
Papa Zito wrote:I feel like I can read AGar at this point in my career...
Please expand.

Unvote: AGar. Vote: Zorblag.
We've played a couple games together, both times PZ has nailed my role by D1's end. Just didn't manage to convince others the first time 'round. :D
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Post Post #518 (ISO) » Mon Dec 07, 2009 4:27 pm

Post by crypto »

Shush, you aren't Papa Zito. I'm asking him
how
he reads you.
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Post Post #519 (ISO) » Mon Dec 07, 2009 5:09 pm

Post by crypto »

The Troll vote is fun, but it really doesn't do my reads justice.

Unvote: Zorblag. Vote: AGar.
FOS: Zorblag.
Yay.

One of {AGar, ODDin, VP Baltar} should be lynched today for not being on the Sando wagon.
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Post Post #520 (ISO) » Mon Dec 07, 2009 10:18 pm

Post by AGar »

LOL.

That is all for now.
Ski mask? Check! Sawed off? Check! Guilty conscience, fear of death? Check! Check! Check!

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Post Post #521 (ISO) » Tue Dec 08, 2009 12:37 am

Post by ODDin »

OJ: I didn't ignore it, I just didn't have the time needed to reevaluate it and make a decision. I wasn't sure what to think and so didn't say anything until making a decision. I did say I won't be able to participate much, and that's what came of it.
Now I thought about this, and I think you have a point. I did accuse PZ mainly for believing he was attacking me for the first wave, not the second. To be frank, it still doesn't make sense to me that he meant the second wave, but I'll take his word on it. In this light, it's more miscommunication than twisting facts on his side - although it really could've helped if he said something a himself earlier. I'm still annoyed at him, but now this certainly doesn't deserve a vote.

VP has made some interesting points on Raskol, and Raskol replacing out without even addresing it is annoying in the extreme.
And crypto is accusing people for... NOT being on the Sando wagon? Say what?

Zorblag not voting anyone and still not expressing any serious suspicions so close to the deadline is disturbing, and raising my suspicion against him back up.

unvote
, and I'll have to think a bit more on whom I'm going to vote.
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Post Post #522 (ISO) » Tue Dec 08, 2009 1:36 am

Post by VP Baltar »

crypto wrote:One of {AGar, ODDin, VP Baltar} should be lynched today for not being on the Sando wagon.
:roll: Your noobness is showing, better tuck that in.
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Post Post #523 (ISO) » Tue Dec 08, 2009 3:48 am

Post by crypto »

VP Baltar wrote:
crypto wrote:One of {AGar, ODDin, VP Baltar} should be lynched today for not being on the Sando wagon.
:roll: Your noobness is showing, better tuck that in.
Nice to meet you, too, VP Baltar. My name's crypto and I'm proud to say that this game has officially gone into overdrive.

Interesting that you assume "noobness" instead of scumminess. If by "noobness" you mean inexperience, it's clear just from my join date and from the fact that this game requires at least two completed games that I'm not new to Mafia. If by "noobness" you simply mean idiocy/mediocrity ... same deal. Why are you so quick to distinguish my comment as idiotic rather than as scummy? Why jump to the "non-alignment-indicative idiocy/mediocrity" conclusion as opposed to the "scum pushing for a wagon on anyone from a set of three players while staying vague about his own reads so that he can give whichever potential wagon seems the most popular a boost for an easy mislynch" conclusion?



ODDin, I think "accusing" is too strong a word. It's just probability. If I don't have any confident scum reads, I'll carve out a smaller pool of suspects that I'm pretty sure I'll find at least one mafioso in, and then I'll reanalyze the players in that pool and vote for the scummiest.

I've completed three games that use the three-man mafia setup. Two times out of three, at least one mafioso has
not
been on the day 1 mislynch wagon. I scanned a handful of finished mini normals to make sure I wasn't kidding myself, and in most or all of the ones I looked at, not all scum were on the day 1 mislynch wagon. Maybe I'm wrong, but in the vast majority of games this seems to be the case.

Evidence with Free MetaEnd-of-the-day vote counts, all of which generated a mislynch. Mafiosi are red and boldfaced.

Mini 872
Mod wrote:xvart (1) [Ectomancer]
Mr.Jester (7) [Raskol,
Netapolis
, Crypto,foilist13, kiruchiyo, JereIC, xvart]

Not voting: (4) [
Walrus Helmet
, Mr. Jester,
Malpascp
,Gyro ]
Mini 865
Mod wrote:Hoopla (1) -- MrSuave
MrSuave (2) -- julienvonwolfe, MacavityLock
julienvonwolfe (7) --
iamausername
,
Torqez
, ErictheRed, Symbol, don_johnson,
Hoopla
, tubby216

Not Voting (2) -- Nuwen, xRECKONERx
This was the exception. It should be noted that we had to rush a wagon at the deadline in order to avoid a no-lynch, and that most townies were so lazy and the town performance overall was so lackluster that the mafia could've gotten away with murder (and they did). [shrug] It is what it is.

Mini 842
Mod wrote:Note: Votes are not in order.
...
Reckoner: (2) idiotking, LlamaFluff
...
Greendude: (6)
bigmc109
,
spyrex
, crypto, reckoner, benmage, MME
benmage: (1)
strangercoug

...
Unvoted: (2) llamafluff, greendude

Plurality on: Greendude



I didn't vote for AGar solely because of the scum-off-the-mislynch-wagon theory. I think he's scummy on an individual level. ODDin is suspicious to a lesser degree. I'm not sure what to make of VP yet. I'll have to reread.
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Post Post #524 (ISO) » Tue Dec 08, 2009 4:10 am

Post by VP Baltar »

Still showing, reiterate request for tucking.

But more seriously, your own examples (which is a uselessly small sample size) demonstrates that you're MORE likely to find scum on a mislynch than off. Out of the 9 scum in your sample games, 6 were on Day 1 mislynches. So, why would you rather look off of the wagon when the evidence you are drawing your conclusions from overwhelmingly says that you're more likely to find scum on the Sando lynch?
crypto wrote:Why are you so quick to distinguish my comment as idiotic rather than as scummy? Why jump to the "non-alignment-indicative idiocy/mediocrity" conclusion as opposed to the "scum pushing for a wagon on anyone from a set of three players while staying vague about his own reads so that he can give whichever potential wagon seems the most popular a boost for an easy mislynch" conclusion?
Because I don't jump to conclusions from one poorly-thought out theory. Should i be suspecting you for pushing bad cases?

Also, how do either of these questions help you determine my alignment?
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