Mafia 105 - Caught in the Crossfire (Game Over)

[SpyreX]

Vote Count, Day 4

hiphop ( 2 ) - fhqwhgads - zakeri
shotty to the body ( 0 )
fhqwhgads ( 0 )
hitogoroshi ( 0 )
Idiotking ( 0 )
Xylthixlm ( 0 )
Pads ( 0 )
popsofctown ( 0 )
Zakeri ( 4 ) - SpyreX - Xylthixlm - idiotking - Shotty to the Body
RedCoyote ( 1 ) - hiphop
Sotty7 ( 0 )
SpyreX ( 0 )
Unvote ( 5 ) - hitogoroshi - RedCoyote - Pads - popsofctown - Sotty7
Total Votes ( 12 )


With 12 alive, 7 needed to reach a majority.
Deadline is December 18th at 4:30pm EST

High Fives all around.

Next on the list: see who's been posting in other games and not this one! Woo.

[hitogoroshi]

At least we can agree on that if Zak gets lynched versus shot anyone claiming vig dies? Deal? Deal.

Also not voting for Zak is deserving of capital punishment. BUS AWAY YOUNG BUCKS.

I pledge my support to the first paragraph initiative.

As for the second, Zakeri said he'd be 'on this game harder than a Gae Bolg in winter' if he was attacked, so I'm willing to give him 24 hours before I vote. Gives me time to write up my IK case.

[Idiotking]

Spyrex, I think that hoopla was a vanilla townie.

[SpyreX]

I've officially lost my mind.

I swear hoopla was scum and was basing a WHOLE mess of thought processes on it.

[SpyreX]

Or I'm retarded. What in the hellllll was I thinking?

GOD I'm officially in too many games or something.

[hiphop]

Your reasoning doesn't add up, you say RC-SK wants to kill charter because rofl directs charter to shoot RC. Thanks to Rayfrost's death we have a SK role PM.

You are immune from being shot if there are 13 or more players left alive.* Note: you may still be lynched!
If there are 12 and under players alive, you wear a bulletproof vest that can take one bullet.

There goes my theory.

unvote

I didn't realize the importance of this sk role pm before. I didn't think it was possible that charter was killed by a vig, but it is the only thing plausible. Unless rc is a sk that hasn't killed yet, I would have to say that rc is 100% (not 99) cleared as scum, because there is no way that rc is the godfather(innocent by the cop) of the mafia. He has zero connections with the scum flips, that I can see.

Ohh, and don't forget:

CSL ( 13 ) - RedCoyote -

sigma

- Pads -

crypto

- popsofctown -

roflcopter

-

Infinis

- shotty to the body -

charter

- hiphop - idiotking

hoopla

-

imaginality

There's still at least one scum left up there.

If you believe that there is one scum up there, why don't you try to trace that lead down? Why do you state it, and leave it?

I believe that the scum must lie within a lurker, so Zak makes an excellent choice, however we should wait for rc and pops to speak about the recent turn of events, before we proceed with the lynching.

[fhqwhgads]

I've got this worry that if Sotty were scum she would want to do exactly what she's doing.

Urgh.

I'm glad I didn't start the day going for IK, because now I feel safe saying that D3 pre-1363 IK, D3 post-1363 IK, and d4 IK are all acting very very differently.

Yes, exactly, town should worry when they are looking 'safe'.

I would have to say that rc is 100% (not 99) cleared as scum, because there is no way that rc is the godfather(innocent by the cop) of the mafia. He has zero connections with the scum flips, that I can see.

I'd rather not deal in absolutes. Yet.

I agree on Zak. We need to get rid of the lurkers now. But I won't vote until I see a vote count. Don't want to hammer accidently again.

[Shotty to the Body]

hiphop ( 2 ) - fhqwhgads - zakeri
shotty to the body ( 0 )
fhqwhgads ( 0 )
hitogoroshi ( 0 )
Idiotking ( 0 )
Xylthixlm ( 0 )
Pads ( 0 )
popsofctown ( 0 )
Zakeri ( 4 ) - SpyreX - Xyl - IdiotKing - Shotty
RedCoyote ( 0 )
Sotty7 ( 0 )
SpyreX ( 0 )
Unvote ( 6 ) - hitogoroshi - RedCoyote - idiotking - Pads - popsofctown - Sotty7
Total Votes ( 12 )

With 12 alive, 7 needed to reach a majority.
Deadline is December 18th at 4:30pm EST

[Shotty to the Body]

Replace idiotking with hiphop in the unvote column and that's correct I believe.

[Sotty7]

I don't think RC was one of the investigations. Early in D3 roflcopter voted for RC as well as called for him to be vigged/NK'd. Only after the charter flip did he decide RC had to be town.

So... he had opposite results on RC and charter, and thought that RC was scum and charter was town. When charter came up scum he realized that he had them backwards.

Who do you think he investigated night one?

I don't know. Right at the moment I'm just reading what other people are saying about possible breadcrumbs, rather than looking for them myself.

My point is that if Rolf did investigate Elvis on night one he would know what his sanity was for certain. The flip of charter wouldn't have effected his results at all. This is why I believe he had an innocent on night two and he was just going though his normal scum hunting motions otherwise. It is all guess work though, but that is my thought process at this point.

Vote: Zak

That is the fifth vote on him by my count. I still have to look over Hito which I should get today at some point. Probably a pads ISO too.

[Xylthixlm]

Yeah, I don't think he investigated Elvis. But elvis was totally scummy.

Also, my general read on rofl is that he'll keep scumhunting aggressively even if he's a cop - makes it hard to tell what's a breadcrumb.

[Sotty7]

Fair enough.

[Pads]

Scum sure are working hard to twist the play of roflcopter.

First of all, just because roflcopter talked about his opinion of an individual which unflinching certainty, didn't mean he had investigated that individual. For proof of this, you need only look at Day 1, when he didn't have any investigations, and he directly called for the lynch of several townies, including Infinis and Crypto. He also firmly put Charter on the town list.

Thus, the revelation of who he investigated must be determined from the idiosyncrasies of his behavior, more than his declared levels of certainty.

So, let's have at it.

Roflcopter's first night investigation was Elvis_Knits.

Roflcopter had virtually nothing to say about Elvis_Knits on Day 1, but there's evidence to indicate that Roflcopter had her picked out to be his first investigation. For instance:

charter, does elvis seem obviously town to you?

He wants to make sure to establish the relationship before he investigates.

On Day 2, he clearly indicates that he has received a scum result on Elvis_Knits.

elvis is scum. lynch her now please.

oh yeah, dayvigging elvis would actually be great. not only would it free us up to lynch more scumbags, it would free me from the onerous task of lynching someone i like so much.

vi jumping off the elvis bandwagon is also terrible

y'all can thank me later for totally blowing up elvis' spot.

In hindsight, that's clearly the cop, after a successful hunt/kill, taking credit. I'm a little amazed he wasn't killed Night 2.


Alright, Rofl's second night investigation is a little less obvious. But we can be reasonably sure of one thing, he knew his sanity at this point. He got a scum result on someone who flipped scum. He knows he's sane.

The first thought is that his investigation was Charter. But Rofl came off his wagon and believed his claim. That's not the action of a cop who got a scum result.

One of the bigger things to consider is that Rofl made a case against Charter. He also made a case against Infinis, Idiotking and Maemuki. He didn't make a case against Elvis. He just said 'she is scum, lynch her please'.

Since he did not tunnel vision anyone else like he did Elvis_Knits, I think we can conclude that he investigated someone who died on Night 2, or he investigated a townie.

I think if he had gotten a town result on someone still alive he would have made his result known (though obvious only in hindsight). And there is only one person that qualifies there, and that is fhq.

fhq is town

Roflcopter did have a lot of reasonable options for investigations, but he wasn't shy about reacting to his results in thread, so I think fhq is town.

To the people saying that Charter or RC was the investigation, please list what you feel were Rofl's investigations were and the results that he got. I believe his actions on Day 2 indicate that he did not have a certain result on either of them and was going off reads, even the 'oops, RC is town' line, and I'd like to know what results you think he had.

Here's what I think.

I think the second that the scum convince everyone that Rofl's Night 2 investigation was on Charter or RC is the second that they've eliminated the confirmation of a townie (fhq).

And that's why they're working so hard. Hiphop gets plenty of scum points and Xyl earns some, too.

I had hopes today of going with a policy lynch of Zakeri, but as I see the votes rack up on him and take a look at the vote counts, I feel the need to discuss something else first. Are we at lynch or lose?

Twenty five person game, 1/3rd would be eight scum, three are dead, leaving five. A town lynch today and a town kill tonight = 5 town, 5 scum = death. Granted, we don't know the setup, and anything from a back up vig to a lower number of starting scum (to balance out the large number of kills) will give us a little more breathing room but right now, I'd say that I'm going to let the dream of a policy lynch go.

Oh, look, SpyreX finally answered my question from Day 1. I'll get to him, his case, and a vote on somebody next time.

[SpyreX]

Yea I totally never answered that before.

Sup unnecessary fear mongering. If there was 8 unified scum in this setup I will eat ALL THE HATS IN THE WORLD.

[RedCoyote]

Buddying up with the 'confirmed' townie?

---

Been reading though the game and I think IK might actually be town.

This is good to know, but I'm more interested in who you think might actually be scum.

---

I have no idea, to be honest.

I think we're going to go round and round until one of us dies, Idiotking. This will forever be our destiny.

Seriously, I would've preferred a more firm answer at this stage in the game, regardless of how torn you are. You mentioned three different times in this post how unsure you are. It's fine to admit to being stumped, especially if you actually are (I think we all are, to an extent), but it seems odd to push the issue. Do let us know what you find on hito though.

---

And I didn't realize exactly HOW much Zakeri was lurking. For reference here is all of the content Zakeri ever posted.

In my defense, the word limit is huge.

In my defense, I'm going to

vote: Zak

.

Why are you ignoring the most pressing issue surrounding your play?

---

At least we can agree on that if Zak gets lynched versus shot anyone claiming vig dies? Deal? Deal.

The only problem I have with this is that I can't explain the happenings of this game so far without a Vigilante.

Idiotking seems to think it may have been a one time thing, maybe that's the case, but I feel more comfortable assigning a Vig to that kill at this point.

---

I didn't think it was possible that charter was killed by a vig, but it is the only thing plausible. Unless rc is a sk that hasn't killed yet, I would have to say that rc is 100% (not 99) cleared as scum, because there is no way that rc is the godfather(innocent by the cop) of the mafia. He has zero connections with the scum flips, that I can see.

I think I can agree with this.

Seriously though, I think charter was almost certainly killed by a Vig (assuming RF was being truthful).

1) We have a dead backup Vig.
2) An SK has been killed (I find it hard to believe there are two SKs, a backup Vig, and a mafia team).
3) It makes sense to me that a player who claimed Vig (and wasn't) would be shot by the "real" Vig.
4) While it's common for a Vig to have a daykill, I think it's less likely for the SK/mafia to have them.

What this all means is that I am willing to bet there is a Vig still, because I wouldn't know of any other role that would've logically been able to shoot (or would even want to shoot) charter.

Additionally, hiphop, some of your posts earlier today have given me a good feeling about you. Not so much the part about wanting to lynch me mind you, but the theory you created around the reason for rofl's sudden changes of heart made a lot of sense.

---

My point is that if Rolf did investigate Elvis on night one he would know what his sanity was for certain. The flip of charter wouldn't have effected his results at all.

Hm, I never considered this.

I think this supports my original prediction that elvis and fhq were both likely investigations.

---

Granted, we don't know the setup, and anything from a back up vig to a lower number of starting scum (to balance out the large number of kills) will give us a little more breathing room but right now, I'd say that I'm going to let the dream of a policy lynch go.

The rest of your post here is pretty logical, and it sounds like you have good reasons to back up your theories. It's just

this

part that I am finding it hard to go for. I don't usually begrudge people for trying to outguess the Mod, but this is really pushing the envelope. With kills going left and right, almost as if we were caught in a crossfire, I do not suggest we sell our lynch out on a limb like this.

[Idiotking]

And I think that was the hammer.

[Shotty to the Body]

1) We have a dead backup Vig.
2) An SK has been killed (I find it hard to believe there are two SKs, a backup Vig, and a mafia team).
3) It makes sense to me that a player who claimed Vig (and wasn't) would be shot by the "real" Vig.
4) While it's common for a Vig to have a daykill, I think it's less likely for the SK/mafia to have them.

1. Where? I see a dead traitor vig...
2. I agree with this.
3. I also agree with this.
4. We've already seen the SK role pm and it does have a day-kill.

[Shotty to the Body]

And I think that was the hammer.

L-1 by my count.

[Idiotking]

Hmm, you're right. Sorry, I'm used to it being at least 50% for a lynch.

[Xylthixlm]

Here's what I think.

I think the second that the scum convince everyone that Rofl's Night 2 investigation was on Charter or RC is the second that they've eliminated the confirmation of a townie (fhq).

And that's why they're working so hard. Hiphop gets plenty of scum points and Xyl earns some, too.

By this logic, you get scum points for trying to eliminate the confirmation of a townie (RedCoyote).

You're welcome.

[popsofctown]

sew guise, it turns out all the exams i intend to study for fell on tuesday. All of them. Crazy day. I'm done now though, reading the thread.

[SpyreX]

Shh Xyl don't spoil the fun.

[popsofctown]

I get the feeling that we lynched our "vig" yesterday.

I hate you all. Why in the SAM hill couldn't we have policy lynched zak yesterday. "people we will have to lynch eventually". People like zak. GEEEEZZZ.

At least we can agree on that if Zak gets lynched versus shot anyone claiming vig dies? Deal? Deal.

Also not voting for Zak is deserving of capital punishment. BUS AWAY YOUNG BUCKS.

I <3 Spyrex.

Not actually going to vote Zak here. More discussion is good, and if we have a vig I don't want him to have to be all "oh shnap, i gotta shoot now, even though i just got here ten seconds ago making it obvious to scum i'm the dayvig." And all.

Charter's death is becoming like a "who shot JFK" thing. None of the theories work right. If it was a vig, how'd he know he's the only vig. If it was an SK, he's bulletproof so why does he care. If it was mafia, then when the role pms are revealed at the end of the game, this forum thread will wrench itself from the very fabric of the New York thread and walk like an Ent to the theme game thread, and forces of nature will tear through the thread correcting all our posts to conform to proper post restrictions, and then the Jinjonator will rise from the earth and knock Zoraster off his broomstick for what he hath wrough.

Pads' interpretation of the nightkills seems like it has an agenda to it. He went through the same posts everyone else did and used the same agenda for a one-sided interpretation. Rofl didn't case build on Elvis (except this reason is extremely flawed because he did, he connected Elvis to Infinis) just like he didn't case build on RC. His reasons for voting RC were nonexistent, as were his reasons for unvoting. The same idiosyncracies were there. He also strawmans his opposition by saying their argument is based on rofl's certainty, when rofl is almost always certain, but I don't see anyone here saying that, it was actually argued, well, based on the idiosyncracies of his behavior.

Hiphop gets points for getting a good interpretation of rofl out first, but it'd be unfair to give him too many.

I'd call RC <qualifier> conf-town.

Every time i hear shotty talk lately, i'm feeling a bit better about him.

[Shotty to the Body]

Every time i hear shotty talk lately, i'm feeling a bit better about him.

Aww let's hand hug.

[popsofctown]

hand hug?