Mafia 105 - Caught in the Crossfire (Game Over)

[hitogoroshi]

Vote Count, Day 4

hiphop ( 2 ) - fhqwhgads - zakeri
shotty to the body ( 0 )
fhqwhgads ( 0 )
hitogoroshi ( 0 )
Idiotking ( 1 ) - hitogoroshi
Xylthixlm ( 0 )
Pads ( 0 )
popsofctown ( 0 )
Zakeri ( 6 ) - SpyreX - Xylthixlm - idiotking - Shotty to the Body - Sotty7 - RedCoyote
RedCoyote ( 0 )
Sotty7 ( 0 )
SpyreX ( 0 )
Unvote ( 3 ) - Pads - popsofctown - hiphop
Total Votes ( 12 )

With 12 alive, 7 needed to reach a majority.
Deadline is December 18th at 4:30pm EST

Well if nothing else, I want a few days to pass in case we have a majority-limited vig or something. For our vig test on Zakeri to be effective we HAVE to give the vig a few non-majority days to carry out the kill. If we have a few days pass with no vig kill and no defense from Zak (to be fair it would need to be one hell of a defense, but hey, we'll see just how hard Zak can be on us) then I'll be all over a Zak wagon. For now I'm assuming he does get vigged and getting pre-season tickets to IKwagon2009.

[SpyreX]

I feel like I should be doing something, but mostly I just want Zakeri to

contribute or

die.

Fixed that up for you.

The series of events that would have to occur for Zak not to get lynched today are so ridiculous I'm not even gonna bank on it.

[popsofctown]

Well if nothing else, I want a few days to pass in case we have a majority-limited vig or something. For our vig test on Zakeri to be effective we HAVE to give the vig a few non-majority days to carry out the kill. If we have a few days pass with no vig kill and no defense from Zak (to be fair it would need to be one hell of a defense, but hey, we'll see just how hard Zak can be on us) then I'll be all over a Zak wagon. For now I'm assuming he does get vigged and getting pre-season tickets to IKwagon2009.

I feel like I should be doing something, but mostly I just want Zakeri to

contribute or

die.

Fixed that up for you.

The series of events that would have to occur for Zak not to get lynched today are so ridiculous I'm not even gonna bank on it.

Um, what? I thought this is the policy lynching of a neutral read lurker, not a slam dunk case. If being attacked causes him to rise in activity level enough for me to read him, and that read isn't scum, then he stays alive. I don't like the way you two are digging your feet in the ground so hard.

[hitogoroshi]

he has been here since D1 (admittedly right at the end of d1) and he has six posts. Only three of them are content posts (and that's if you count "vote mae because I has mason read" as a content post.) That is simply inexcusable. A neutral policy lynch has become a slam dunk case by sheer scale. I don't believe we're in LYLO yet (I could easily see 8 anti-town, but eight unified scum is a lot harder to swallow) and as said before, I don't want to be making this decision when it really is the last chance.

As such, I'm not looking for a 'non-scum' read on Zak. I'd need an absolute townie read that I'm willing to take into LYLO with me despite his complete lack of post history.

[SpyreX]

70 pages. 8 posts. The first callout was a "shrug".

No.

[hiphop]

I'd rather not deal in absolutes. Yet.

Why not? I am sure we both agree that sometimes scum can act town, however sometimes no matter how hard scum try they cannot act town. So in clearing townies( for now) I can eliminate the improbable, and see what is left. It seems to me like you want to keep your options open.

fos fhq

@pads
rc-innocent
charter guilty.
Tell me why would he go and vote for no reason, and than come back and unvote, just because someone flipped scum. As far as I am concerned he posted a case on elvis.

1) We have a dead backup Vig.
2) An SK has been killed (I find it hard to believe there are two SKs, a backup Vig, and a mafia team).
3) It makes sense to me that a player who claimed Vig (and wasn't) would be shot by the "real" Vig.
4) While it's common for a Vig to have a daykill, I think it's less likely for the SK/mafia to have them.

Why is it that no matter how much I quote the rules, that people still insist that there

must

be this role because that is how it normally is? Do you honestly think that our mod would intentionally post rules that are not true? As far as I can tell, it doesn't say that 2 can't be true. And 4 is blatantly saying that the rules are wrong. There are two reason why a vig

had

to of killed charter and one is, if it was an sk, there would of been two kills day one, for rf role said he must kill before the 800th post or there will be a kill that would be random. The other is, if the sk is bullet proof, wouldn't he want as many kills as possible? The less people he must deal with.

pops- as far as I am concerned, keeping scum alive is not part of my win condition.

Also, I don't think killing charter was a one time thing. Remember night one? imag's death. That means we have another killer, or the second day-killer has more than one shot.

I am ready to lynch zak now, but it is better to wait for the vig. I will give the vig one more day, than I will hammer, if needed. Besides if he was the one that killed night one, than he is a night killer as well, and he can kill tonight if he wants.

[Pads]

Sup unnecessary fear mongering.

Takes one to know one, apparently. This town has rushed into three lynches, none of which have turned up scum (yes, I realize that one was an SK, but the point is we've only been able to lynch people the scum have wanted dead). If you want to try and convince people that my call for caution is fearmongering, then good luck to you.

Yea I totally never answered that before.

But now that you have, I know what your case against me is, and I can appropriately defend myself.

Pads, still and forever, is scummy for the amazing amount of waffling early game. Just fabulous amount.

This is the part where you take an unwarranted step in reason, malicious or not. Waffling, is certainly an action often associated with scum. It's the unwillingness to make a decision when decision time has come.

But that's not what I did. At all. Not even a little bit.

What I did, was not know your alignment, and not have a strong guess as to what your alignment was. That's all. Guess what? I'm town. Townies don't know. Townies especially don't know on Day 1. I didn't know on Day 1. Heck, the way you've been playing I still don't know. I've seen townies put their fingers in their ears and focus on 1 or 2 people all game, just like you have, so your play is not without precedent. But the feeling that you're saving me and Shotty for a LyLo wagon is most certainly in the air.

All that said, if you were at L-1 right now, I'd make the call. I'd hammer or I'd call you town. I might be wrong, but I'd throw my hat in the ring one way or the other and take my chances. When decision time comes, I do not waffle. Haven't waffled this entire game, with the exception of the Maemuki case, which was hammered on before I could make a deciding post.

Wrong or right, I made the call to vote in favor of keeping RayFrost alive, I made the call to jump on Elvis' wagon. I made the call on Zakeri earlier today, and, as loathe as you may be to admit it, I made the call on your wagon, despite its popularity, to step off of it.

You are either town that believes that a scum disengaged from a popular town wagon, or you are scum who has latched onto a victim and is either saving him for lynch or lose, or simply doesn't know how to let go at this point without looking suspicious.

Either way, I'm not guilty of what you say I'm guilty of.

Pads' interpretation of the nightkills seems like it has an agenda to it.

Darn tootin'. I think people are pointing to the wrong confirmed town. And my agenda is to convince people of that belief.

He also strawmans his opposition by saying their argument is based on rofl's certainty, when rofl is almost always certain, but I don't see anyone here saying that,

I do.

It isn't just this one. Look at his vote of rc and onward. He even voted charter in his first post of day 3. Meaning he had a guilty on charter.

He went through the same posts everyone else did and used the same agenda for a one-sided interpretation. Rofl didn't case build on Elvis (except this reason is extremely flawed because he did, he connected Elvis to Infinis)

I assume you mean Imaginality? The case was little more than Rofl using general scum theory on Imaginality's scum/town list. And it was more or less along the lines of this:

i would say that at least two of elvis, mae and idiotking are scum.

But, otherwise inexplicably, there is a noticable difference in his conclusion on each person.

conclusions
elvis is scum. lynch her now please.
mae is very likely scum.
idiotking is very likely scum.

Hiphop gets points for getting a good interpretation of rofl out first, but it'd be unfair to give him too many.

Really? Hiphop voting for the person he thinks Roflcopter got a confirmed town result on is a good interpretation?


Post came in at 1250 words. I'll post the other half tomorrow.

[Pads]

Sup unnecessary fear mongering.

Takes one to know one, apparently. This town has rushed into three lynches, none of which have turned up scum (yes, I realize that one was an SK, but the point is we've only been able to lynch people the scum have wanted dead). If you want to try and convince people that my call for caution is fearmongering, then good luck to you.

Yea I totally never answered that before.

But now that you have, I know what your case against me is, and I can appropriately defend myself.

Pads, still and forever, is scummy for the amazing amount of waffling early game. Just fabulous amount.

This is the part where you take an unwarranted step in reason, malicious or not. Waffling, is certainly an action often associated with scum. It's the unwillingness to make a decision when decision time has come.

But that's not what I did. At all. Not even a little bit.

What I did, was not know your alignment, and not have a strong guess as to what your alignment was. That's all. Guess what? I'm town. Townies don't know. Townies especially don't know on Day 1. I didn't know on Day 1. Heck, the way you've been playing I still don't know. I've seen townies put their fingers in their ears and focus on 1 or 2 people all game, just like you have, so your play is not without precedent. But the feeling that you're saving me and Shotty for a LyLo wagon is most certainly in the air.

All that said, if you were at L-1 right now, I'd make the call. I'd hammer or I'd call you town. I might be wrong, but I'd throw my hat in the ring one way or the other and take my chances. When decision time comes, I do not waffle. Haven't waffled this entire game, with the exception of the Maemuki case, which was hammered on before I could make a deciding post.

Wrong or right, I made the call to vote in favor of keeping RayFrost alive, I made the call to jump on Elvis' wagon. I made the call on Zakeri earlier today, and, as loathe as you may be to admit it, I made the call on your wagon, despite its popularity, to step off of it.

You are either town that believes that a scum disengaged from a popular town wagon, or you are scum who has latched onto a victim and is either saving him for lynch or lose, or simply doesn't know how to let go at this point without looking suspicious.

Either way, I'm not guilty of what you say I'm guilty of.

Pads' interpretation of the nightkills seems like it has an agenda to it.

Darn tootin'. I think people are pointing to the wrong confirmed town. And my agenda is to convince people of that belief.

He also strawmans his opposition by saying their argument is based on rofl's certainty, when rofl is almost always certain, but I don't see anyone here saying that,

I do.

It isn't just this one. Look at his vote of rc and onward. He even voted charter in his first post of day 3. Meaning he had a guilty on charter.

He went through the same posts everyone else did and used the same agenda for a one-sided interpretation. Rofl didn't case build on Elvis (except this reason is extremely flawed because he did, he connected Elvis to Infinis)

I assume you mean Imaginality? The case was little more than Rofl using general scum theory on Imaginality's scum/town list. And it was more or less along the lines of this:

i would say that at least two of elvis, mae and idiotking are scum.

But, otherwise inexplicably, there is a noticable difference in his conclusion on each person.

conclusions
elvis is scum. lynch her now please.
mae is very likely scum.
idiotking is very likely scum.

Hiphop gets points for getting a good interpretation of rofl out first, but it'd be unfair to give him too many.

Really? Hiphop voting for the person he thinks Roflcopter got a confirmed town result on is a good interpretation?


Post came in at 1250 words. I'll post the other half tomorrow.

[Pads]

Damndable lag.

[fhqwhgads]

Pads' 1687 is the most sense I've seen today. And not just because he thinks I'm confirmed. That is, until the 'lylo' talk.

By this logic, you get scum points for trying to eliminate the confirmation of a townie (RedCoyote).

You're welcome.

Yeah, you know, that's why I'm trying to distance myself from this whole confirmed townie thing. All the talk of rofl's investigations are just that, talk. If you consider either me or RC confirmed, you're playing a dangerous game.

Charter's death is becoming like a "who shot JFK" thing. None of the theories work right. If it was a vig, how'd he know he's the only vig. If it was an SK, he's bulletproof so why does he care. If it was mafia, then when the role pms are revealed at the end of the game, this forum thread will wrench itself from the very fabric of the New York thread and walk like an Ent to the theme game thread, and forces of nature will tear through the thread correcting all our posts to conform to proper post restrictions, and then the Jinjonator will rise from the earth and knock Zoraster off his broomstick for what he hath wrough.

Don't worry. The Higgs Boson will get a Delorean, go back in time, stopping his mom making out with himself, thus restoring the time continuum. This will all be fixed in the collateral.

Also Dogs + Shoes. I mean, come on now have you seen a dog with shoes? Rediculous.

I feel like I should be doing something, but mostly I just want Zakeri to contribute or die.

This.

It seems to me like you want to keep

your

town's options open.

Fixed that for you. So there's still argument about who rofl actually investigated? I'd love to claim confirmed townie, really I do, but I think it is short sighted to do so. You're the one who went after RC. What, do you think I'm claiming scum?

[Xylthixlm]

I just found the huge flaw in the "roflcopter inspected elvis_knits and got guilty" theory:

roflcopter had a 50% chance of being sane, and a 50% chance of being insane, and

knew it

. Therefore he knew that his first night's inspection was worthless information-wise - it told him nothing about elvis_knit's alignment. Why would he try to get elvis lynched based on worthless info? He wouldn't.

Unless I'm missing something huge and roflcopter somehow sent in an inspection night 0 (which was before confirmations, so I really doubt it), it's pretty clear he only had two results, and they were on RedCoyote and charter.

[Shotty to the Body]

I just found the huge flaw in the "roflcopter inspected elvis_knits and got guilty" theory:

roflcopter had a 50% chance of being sane, and a 50% chance of being insane, and

knew it

. Therefore he knew that his first night's inspection was worthless information-wise - it told him nothing about elvis_knit's alignment. Why would he try to get elvis lynched based on worthless info? He wouldn't.

Unless I'm missing something huge and roflcopter somehow sent in an inspection night 0 (which was before confirmations, so I really doubt it), it's pretty clear he only had two results, and they were on RedCoyote and charter.

Nice catch Xyl.

[SpyreX]

Takes one to know one, apparently. This town has rushed into three lynches, none of which have turned up scum (yes, I realize that one was an SK, but the point is we've only been able to lynch people the scum have wanted dead). If you want to try and convince people that my call for caution is fearmongering, then good luck to you.

What? If you're going to say I've been fearmongering well go ahead and cite it. Otherwise... yea. Now, lets look at why this is fearmongering. (I notice others have talked about how quickly you are pushing a logic train forward that is choo choo off the charts so).

Scum sure are working hard to twist the play of roflcopter.

First of all, just because roflcopter talked about his opinion of an individual which unflinching certainty, didn't mean he had investigated that individual. For proof of this, you need only look at Day 1, when he didn't have any investigations, and he directly called for the lynch of several townies, including Infinis and Crypto. He also firmly put Charter on the town list.

Thus, the revelation of who he investigated must be determined from the idiosyncrasies of his behavior, more than his declared levels of certainty.

So, let's have at it.

Roflcopter's first night investigation was Elvis_Knits.

Roflcopter had virtually nothing to say about Elvis_Knits on Day 1, but there's evidence to indicate that Roflcopter had her picked out to be his first investigation. For instance:

So, is it that we're misinterpreting this? No. Its very direct: scum are misinterpreting this on purpose and we're biting.

But, that's just the appetizer to the truly magnificent fearmongering:

I had hopes today of going with a policy lynch of Zakeri, but as I see the votes rack up on him and take a look at the vote counts, I feel the need to discuss something else first. Are we at lynch or lose?

Twenty five person game, 1/3rd would be eight scum, three are dead, leaving five. A town lynch today and a town kill tonight = 5 town, 5 scum = death. Granted, we don't know the setup, and anything from a back up vig to a lower number of starting scum (to balance out the large number of kills) will give us a little more breathing room but right now, I'd say that I'm going to let the dream of a policy lynch go.

So, disregarding the fact we've already seen an SK kill AND the opening flavor AND the damn title of the thread lets really look at this with one of my awesome paraphrases:

"Ohh I'd totally lynch the lurker but then the unified 5 scum (from their nest of eight little birdies) would WIN THE GAME. So, we can not lynch them, alas. Woe is me for not being able to lynch this target."

Oddly enough... this ends without a vote. Its a mystery.

Or, not. In fact, very, very not.

But, back to current events:

But now that you have, I know what your case against me is, and I can appropriately defend myself.

Just want this clear: Pads is saying I've never said what my problem with him is. Never. That this is the first time.

This is the part where you take an unwarranted step in reason, malicious or not. Waffling, is certainly an action often associated with scum. It's the unwillingness to make a decision when decision time has come.

But that's not what I did. At all. Not even a little bit.

What I did, was not know your alignment, and not have a strong guess as to what your alignment was. That's all. Guess what? I'm town. Townies don't know. Townies especially don't know on Day 1. I didn't know on Day 1. Heck, the way you've been playing I still don't know. I've seen townies put their fingers in their ears and focus on 1 or 2 people all game, just like you have, so your play is not without precedent. But the feeling that you're saving me and Shotty for a LyLo wagon is most certainly in the air.

All that said, if you were at L-1 right now, I'd make the call. I'd hammer or I'd call you town. I might be wrong, but I'd throw my hat in the ring one way or the other and take my chances. When decision time comes, I do not waffle. Haven't waffled this entire game, with the exception of the Maemuki case, which was hammered on before I could make a deciding post.

Wrong or right, I made the call to vote in favor of keeping RayFrost alive, I made the call to jump on Elvis' wagon. I made the call on Zakeri earlier today, and, as loathe as you may be to admit it, I made the call on your wagon, despite its popularity, to step off of it.

You are either town that believes that a scum disengaged from a popular town wagon, or you are scum who has latched onto a victim and is either saving him for lynch or lose, or simply doesn't know how to let go at this point without looking suspicious.

Either way, I'm not guilty of what you say I'm guilty of.

No.

Waffling comes in many ways. I'm talking about the jumping off the early wagon and STILL going "well shucks he may just be a scum" ready to jump back on.

I'm talking about the repeated discussions about my alignment that seem to end in "ohh he's town" yet like above still go "ohh but I don't know".

I'm talking about doing things like saying "I stepped off the SpyreX wagon" like that is a firmament of your stance WHEN WHILE YOU WERE DOING JUST THAT you left yourself ample room to hop back on just in case.

I'm talking about "You're either town or scum *shrug*".

Like I said, though, this is moot. Zak is getting lynched today. Period. What happens next is based off that.

[popsofctown]

On pads part one: the popular term of "waffling" is different from what i think you think it means. It means changing one's mind of someone's alignment without any clear reason for a reversal of opinion, that might be fueled by a scum motivation, like changing a town read to scum if it looks like a juicy mislynch, or changing a scum read to town if that player is scum and you'd rather swap out the credit for actually saving your partner.

Point taken on hiphop arguing for certainty, I didn't see that.

@Xyl: devil's advocate here, rofl could have investigated elvis, gotten a guilty, and then very much wanted her six feet under so he could get a true investigation the next night. Zoraster's version of the cop role has a pretty strong lyncher mechanic to it.

I'm playing devil's advocate because i'm not 100% sure, it IS roflcopter. But I still have my money on RC investigation because there was NO case on redcoyote, and there was a case on e_k.

And I still don't see how he became certain of his interpretation without a vested interest in RC dying or fhq living.

[Zakeri]

Meh.

I'm not posting a defense since the policy lynch on me is for a very good reason. I can't really see myself helping the game very much, so whoever feels they want to get whatever credit they think they'll get for hammering me oughta do so. I also apologize in advanced to the people on my side for being a loser in general.

In fact, if you guys are just going to lynch me anyway, why did you bother waiting for me?

[SpyreX]

Woosh.

[hitogoroshi]

Zak, we're not lynching you now because we're waiting to see if we have a pro-town killer left yet.

While you're alive, neglect defense, get a little bit of scumhunting to your name before you go! For starters, what do you think about IK?

[Zakeri]

We had two pro-town killers. They were both scum.

doing a quick read on IK's voting and reasoning, He provided solid points for pegging EK, who was scum, and was riding Rayfrost up until he claimed SK. He seems rather town minded to me.

Hiphop, please tell me who you think is scum.

As a matter of fact, even thought Pops has been off my radar, I think people should take a deeper look into his actions, particularly because as I reading Pads, I saw where he gave hiphop town points but "not too many." This is a case of waffling since it basically says "Town read" while giving yourself the out of changing your mind to "Scum read" later.

[popsofctown]

It's a pro-town action, but obviously so. I always give those actions points for being essentially pro-town, but few because it's WIFOM (they could do it just to look pro-town). Utimately, on the whole, 51% of the time stuff like that comes from townies, so it counts for something, but not much.

It's not a scumtell for me to see an action as being somewhere between slamdunk scum and obvtown.

[Shotty to the Body]

Someone hammer, no reason to sit here blubbering till deadline. A vig would've shot by now if he could, either he shoots at night and/or had a 1-shot D-Kill or the other day-kill was some fucked up thing like another SK we won't be able to explain till later. Zak's refused to defend himself so that avenue is exhausted as well, let's move on.

[hiphop]

Here's what I think.

I think the second that the scum convince everyone that Rofl's Night 2 investigation was on Charter or RC is the second that they've eliminated the confirmation of a townie (fhq).

Here is what I think, you are saying that rc is scum. Why couldn't have rofl investigated rc? Can't rc be the confimation and not fhq?

@ pops- I doubt rofl would want to lynch someone just to prove his role. How anti-town is that? Why wouldn't he investigate as many as he could, and one if dies (like charter) he can see the flip.

fhq- Which would be easier? Seeing who is the most town, and calling scum what is left, or seeing who is scum? I went after rc, because I thought that there was a possibility that he was an sk(innocent by a cop), but xyl convinced me otherwise. Are you claiming scum?

In rayfrost's pm

1. Generally, day kills will be made instantly. However, any day kill you give me within the first 48 hours of the day will be made at the end of the 48 hours.

It has been 48 hours, so no vig has sumitted their kill yet.

Zak- you want to know who I find to be scum. Right her:

I am ready to lynch zak now,

vote zak

For all you people who say, "This is how normal mafia games are setup or ran," take a look at this stated in the rules:

Please note that while this is a Normal game, there are

SIGNIFICANT

differences between the way I am running this and the way many games are run.

[zoraster]

I'm sick and sleepy, so I'm going to sleep, but hiphops is the majority post.

[fhqwhgads]

Are you claiming scum?

Damn... you got me.

There's a difference in 'regarding' someone town and just blindly confirming them. Unless you know something I don't.

[Pads]

roflcopter had a 50% chance of being sane, and a 50% chance of being insane, and knew it. Therefore he knew that his first night's inspection was worthless information-wise - it told him nothing about elvis_knit's alignment. Why would he try to get elvis lynched based on worthless info? He wouldn't.

I'm not so sure. Seems like wanting to see the alignment of the person he investigated as soon as possible is not an unreasonable thought, as it would tell him his sanity. Roflcopter wasn't shy about calling for the lynches of people he suspected, I don't see why he would be shy about calling for the lynches of someone whose death would tell him his sanity. (PPE: I see pops said the same thing, meh)

But, alright, there's a fair point here, and there's some things that do support the RedCoyote night one investigation. RedCoyote did have a FoS from Roflcopter on Day 1, making him a reasonable choice for the investigation, and Day 2 Rofl did say he was 50/50 on RedCoyote. And of course, it explains Rofl's switch on RC once he saw Charter's flip.

But if I accept the RC/Charter investigation theory then Rofl's behavior during the Elvis wagon and his declaration that 'fhq is town' don't fit. I feel like I'm missing something that will make all of these points fit. 'Roflcopter talked with more certainty than his game knowledge dictated' isn't working for me, as most of his scumlist posts were riddled with 'probably's and 'most likely's, while his declaration of RC, Charter, Fhq, and Elvis were all with an 'is'.

I'll ponder it some more.

The Zakeri wagon is just awful. It's going to tell us nothing.

Liking IK more on an iso read. There's an overarching townie-like tone that's hard to convey with quotes, but I have a hard time seeing someone who dislikes being scum so much as to replace out if they get scum so easily duplicate it.

On pads part one: the popular term of "waffling" is different from what i think you think it means. It means changing one's mind of someone's alignment without any clear reason for a reversal of opinion, that might be fueled by a scum motivation, like changing a town read to scum if it looks like a juicy mislynch, or changing a scum read to town if that player is scum and you'd rather swap out the credit for actually saving your partner.

Even with that definition there's little traction for a case. I clearly listed back on day both the town like things I found in SpyreX's behavior and the scum like things I found in his behavior.

I forget who it was, but someone said earlier in this game that scum hate to give a formalized, definite opinion of their scumbuddies, which is something I agree with. So, if someone wants to think that I'm SpyreX's scumbuddy based on those actions, I could understand it. But SpyreX surely knows that we are not scumbuddies.

My top suspects include Hitogoroshi and Hiphop. I have seen two people in previous Mafia games play as carefully and mindful of potential mistakes as Hitogoroshi is playing now. They were both scum.

The last two sentences of Hiphop's Post 1612 defy description.

[Xylthixlm]

Seems like wanting to see the alignment of the person he investigated as soon as possible is not an unreasonable thought, as it would tell him his sanity

rofl would

not

lynch elvis just for information. Someone else I might consider it, but not elvis.

'Roflcopter talked with more certainty than his game knowledge dictated' isn't working for me, as most of his scumlist posts were riddled with 'probably's and 'most likely's, while his declaration of RC, Charter, Fhq, and Elvis were all with an 'is'.

A little knowledge of rofl's playstyle would fix that pretty fast. Also note that you've listed four people, off a maximum of two investigations... grade school arithmetic would tell you that at least two of those must be "talking with more certainty than his game knowledge dictated".