Mini 892 - Mayor Mafia (GAME OVER)

[nhammen]

So, we can lynch Monkeyman now?

I would prefer Hoopla.

A cop is a signifigantly weaker role when it's been outed - especially Day 1. The benefit in keeping him alive is if he is the cop, he will likely draw a nightkill (meaning we get a different lynch today).

Lynching him tomorrow is the worse choice out of everything suggested. If Monkey gets an innocent tonight, we get one confirmable result in exchange for a mislynch. I don't see this as a good scenario.

A cop's power to confirm innocents and find scum is almost completely removed when he is outed. As he is either scum, lying, or will be night killed/blocked. The nightkill scenario is good - but is dependant on him being truthful. If this is the best result we can hope for if he is town, isn't it more worthwhile to take the gamble he's scum?

What percentage do you put Monkey as scum? More than me?

Your use of the "no use to us now" defense is, as some would say, noted. If anything, he is useful to us in that he draws a NK. Or gives us information on whether or not there is a roleblocker. Or, yes, gives us alignment information on a player.

[Hoopla]

Nhammen - say we don't lynch Monkey today, and we lynch a town player. Monkey doesn't get nightkilled and claims a guilty at the start of Day 2 - what do you do?

[nhammen]

I say, Yay! We have a 1 for 1! Then I look at who Monkey claimed a guilty on, and compare with Monkey. Player more likely to be scum bites the dust.

[Hoopla]

I say, Yay! We have a 1 for 1! Then I look at who Monkey claimed a guilty on, and compare with Monkey. Player more likely to be scum bites the dust.

Yeah, but there's a decent chance you don't get to cash in your scum lynch until Day 3. Is it really worth waiting that long for a confirmed scum?

[xRECKONERx]

Picked up my prod.

As I've said already a few times, I do not want to lynch a claimed cop on D1 under any circumstances. I saw it happen in another game on this site, and it was poor town play. I refuse to vote MM.

In any case, I still want to lynch kyle... though, if it comes down to it, I prefer a Hoopla lynch over a MM lynch.

[SaintKerrigan]

@ xReck: I believe I asked you this earlier: why do you want to lynch Kyle?

[Socrates]

Gah. the meta on Kyle wasn't as conclusive as I had hoped. The sample size to build a meta on is just too small. The only completed game he has is one as scum where he replaced in late in the day and was caught extremely quickly.

God I wish he had a game where he is confirmed town I could look at.

The biggest impression on him that I got is that, yes, he is the type to drop extremely transparent scum tells as scum, and if we catch a buddy it will be pretty easy to determine his alignment.

The problem is that, to me, the post I voted him for IS an extremely transparent scum tell.

Note: I do NOT want him to live until endgame.

Gah again.

Okay here is the breakdown to me:

I don't think the case on Hoopla is that compelling (as previously stated) and lynching Hoopla will be as good as lynching randomly.
I think Kyle has a slightly higher than random chance of being scum at this point. But a wagon seems to refuse to form on him...
I think Monkey has a higher than random chance of being scum at this point, but there is potential use from him living a little longer.

I want to give one last go on trying to push a Kyle lynch before I give up.

Nhammen, Can you get behind a Kyle lynch? Why Hoopla over Kyle? What do you think about the take on the Hoopla wagon that I gave earlier?

MIC, If you were scum and you were getting a lot of crap for V/LA problems, how would you have reacted? If town? How about if you were off a wagon when the person being wagoned claimed a power role? How would you expect newbscum to react in such a situation?

SerialClergyman, Lets go beyond the actual reasoning for Kyle's jump on the Monkey wagon for a moment. Scum can and always will try to look for valid reasoning for their jumps. Do you disagree that the

timing

of his vote is abysmal? How about how non-commital he was about it?

SaintKerrigan, You have twice asked Reckoner why Kyle is scummy, but you have neither asked me why nor have you presented your own perspective on his play.

Monkey, you are voting Hoopla out of self preservation. Do you actually believe that she is scummier than Kyle?

Charter and DDD, What would it take for you to vote Kyle over Monkey?

Hoopla, Kyle starts out supporting the biggest support wagon (you), then move his support onto the new biggest support wagon (me) while simultaneously voting for the biggest lynch wagon after that slot had claimed power role (and a powerful one at that). More likely scum or town moves?

Col. Cathart, I am running out of new perspectives on this. It seems the reason you are not on the kyle wagon is because you cannot fathom Monkey being town.

Reck, feel like helping to push the Kyle wagon with more than just saying that he is the right lynch?

----

@Monkey: Could you be ever so kind as to link me to a game where you were a town power role?

[charter]

Charter and DDD, What would it take for you to vote Kyle over Monkey?

Convince me I should. Kyle is the epitome of lurkerscum, but Monkey is just the scummiest person by miles. As of right now, I'd rather lynch Monkey, because I am going to want to lynch him every single day, so it makes sense to do it as soon as possible. I haven't been paying Kyle as much attention as I should, but continued lurking will be met with a punishment fit for the crime.

What is the hold up with electing a mayor? All the people supporting their lynch candidate, I don't think that's going to happen. You all must have identified at least one townie by now, support them so we can wrap this day up at some point.

[charter]

The mayor bit is addressed to everyone (specifically those supporting who they are voting).

[kyle99]

@Socrates, You seem to think I'm scum, and that's fine, I guess, but do you honestly think that I'm more scummy than monkey? I've tried to be a good townsperson, but I'm just not that great of a scumhunter, which could lead to some people thinking I'm scum. But do you really think I'm a better lynch than monkey?

[MonkeyMan576]

@Monkey: Could you be ever so kind as to link me to a game where you were a town power role?

Disney Mafia 2
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 98&start=0

[xRECKONERx]

I'll find more shit on Kyle tomorrow. LOOOONG night trying to power through KH2 before exams kick back in next week.

[MichelSableheart]

Fourteenth support count of day 1:

charter (0)

kyle99 (1)

Hoopla

Moai Interceptor Cannons (0)

Debonair Danny DiPietro (0)

SerialClergyman (0)

Hoopla (1)

SerialClergyman

* Socrates (6)

Socrates, charter, Col.Cathart, kyle99, Moai Interceptor Cannons, MonkeyMan576

MonkeyMan576 (1)

Debonair Danny DiPietro

xRECKONERx (0)

nhammen (2)

nhammen, xRECKONERx

Col.Cathart (0)

SaintKerrigan (0)

Not supporting anyone (1)

SaintKerrigan

With 12 players alive, it takes 7 votes to elect someone as mayor.

an * marks who would become mayor if the day ended right now.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Fourteenth vote count of day 1:

charter (0)

kyle99 (2)

xRECKONERx, Socrates

Moai Interceptor Cannons (0)

Debonair Danny DiPietro (0)

SerialClergyman (1)

Hoopla

Hoopla (4)

SerialClergyman, nhammen, Moai Interceptor Cannons, MonkeyMan576

Socrates (0)

MonkeyMan576 (5)

Col.Cathart, kyle99, SaintKerrigan, Debonair Danny DiPietro, charter

xRECKONERx (0)

nhammen (0)

Col.Cathart (0)

SaintKerrigan (0)

Not voting anyone (0)

With 13 votes available, it takes 7 votes to lynch someone. However, noone can be lynched before a mayor is elected.

[Col.Cathart]

Col. Cathart, I am running out of new perspectives on this. It seems the reason you are not on the kyle wagon is because you cannot fathom Monkey being town.

Because I cannot. I said already, if MM lynch will be impossible, I'll vote for someone from other my other suspect (Reck, Kyle, Hoopla), but as long, as there's still a chance to lynch Monkey, I'll stick with this vote. I don't remember any other player who would tilt my scumdar so much in any game on this site so far. Seriously.

[Moai Interceptor Cannons]

Anti-prod. Was out the whole day. Socrates, will respond to you after I sleep. Your questions look like they need quite a bit of hypothetical thinking while at the same time designed to hustle me into switching my vote from Hoopla to Kyle.

[SerialClergyman]

Socrates - I actually believe my case against Hoopla. One thing that can be said for kyle is that he's unlikely to be scum with monkey, so therefore it's unlikely you'll get many people on the monkey wagon to lynch kyle.

The timing was after a claim which kyle has insisted was the reason for the vote. it's at least consistent.

I don't know - don't expect me to defend him, i just think a newbie lycnh is a wasted lynch - he's too likely ot just be bad/unconventional, in my opinion. I genuinely think Hoopla is liklier to be scum.

I'd like to hear DDD's thoughts on kyle though.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

May I ask what the harm in allowing monkey one night to try to grab a result?

You still haven’t shown that there’s a significant chance that there’s no roleblocker. As long as logic dictates that the game is “properly” balanced with a roleblocking or redirecting role in the hands of scum then Monkey’s hypothetical role now that it’s been outed is no better than vanilla.

Charter and DDD, What would it take for you to vote Kyle over Monkey?

Like charter said, convince me. There’s been a lot of loose suspicion of Kyle and I can see some of it being warranted, but other than your post it feels like no one has actually provided reasons.

Socrates - I actually believe my case against Hoopla. One thing that can be said for kyle is that he's unlikely to be scum with monkey, so therefore it's unlikely you'll get many people on the monkey wagon to lynch kyle.

I'd like to hear DDD's thoughts on kyle though.

That it is exceedingly unlikely that they’re scum together. In the game I mentioned and Socrates checked out Kyle tried to bus and it didn’t work out. Now maybe he got more subtle and tried to be early on the wagon, but I think it’s more likely that they’re independently scum. Kyle has done his absolute best to say nothing controversial recently which I don’t like at all. I’m not so tunneled that if a decent case is made that Kyle is more likely to be scum then Monkey that I won’t believe it and act upon it, I just have yet to see such a case however.

[nhammen]

Yeah, but there's a decent chance you don't get to cash in your scum lynch until Day 3. Is it really worth waiting that long for a confirmed scum?

There's also a decent chance we can cash in our scum lynch on Day 1. If he really is the cop, then lynching him is retarded. The cost of lynching the cop more than makes up for the likelihood of him being scum. Waiting until Day 3 is always a possibility. Are you suggesting that we avoid having 1 for 1 situations? I think these are good things.

Also, remember this:

I don't think we should lynch him though. Monkey is more likely to claim cop as cop, than claim cop as scum. I think the value of a potential investigation can be quite damaging for mafia, and if he is truthful, he will likely absorb the night kill (saving us a lynch).

If Monkey is mafia, we have him captured. There is not much difference between lynching him D1 than on D2. In both of these scenarios we have 2 other scum to hit out of everyone else. So if there is little difference in the scenarios if he is mafia, we might as well choose the option that benefits town more if he is town - which is an investigation or night kill. Unless mafia have a roleblocker they run a serious risk in leaving Monkey alive.

What changed your mind?

Nhammen, Can you get behind a Kyle lynch? Why Hoopla over Kyle? What do you think about the take on the Hoopla wagon that I gave earlier?

I can definitely get behind a kyle lynch. However, I think Hoopla looks scummier than kyle. Her suspicions are without reason. Yes, it could be "apathy and a low confidence" from a townie, as you say, but it doesn't look that way to me.

You still haven’t shown that there’s a significant chance that there’s no roleblocker. As long as logic dictates that the game is “properly” balanced with a roleblocking or redirecting role in the hands of scum then Monkey’s hypothetical role now that it’s been outed is no better than vanilla.

Then we will find out that there is a roleblocker. I don't see how this is a bad thing. "Useless to us now" is bad bad BAD logic.


Sigh, I just ISOed Hoopla to compare with Socrates' comments on the Hoopla wagon. I can see his arguments. Ummm... I guess I'll go with

unvote
vote kyle

But if Hoopla turns out to be scum I will be annoyed that you have convinced me.

[MonkeyMan576]

Yeah, but there's a decent chance you don't get to cash in your scum lynch until Day 3. Is it really worth waiting that long for a confirmed scum?

There's also a decent chance we can cash in our scum lynch on Day 1. If he really is the cop, then lynching him is retarded. The cost of lynching the cop more than makes up for the likelihood of him being scum. Waiting until Day 3 is always a possibility. Are you suggesting that we avoid having 1 for 1 situations? I think these are good things.

Also, remember this:

I don't think we should lynch him though. Monkey is more likely to claim cop as cop, than claim cop as scum. I think the value of a potential investigation can be quite damaging for mafia, and if he is truthful, he will likely absorb the night kill (saving us a lynch).

If Monkey is mafia, we have him captured. There is not much difference between lynching him D1 than on D2. In both of these scenarios we have 2 other scum to hit out of everyone else. So if there is little difference in the scenarios if he is mafia, we might as well choose the option that benefits town more if he is town - which is an investigation or night kill. Unless mafia have a roleblocker they run a serious risk in leaving Monkey alive.

What changed your mind?

Nhammen, Can you get behind a Kyle lynch? Why Hoopla over Kyle? What do you think about the take on the Hoopla wagon that I gave earlier?

I can definitely get behind a kyle lynch. However, I think Hoopla looks scummier than kyle. Her suspicions are without reason. Yes, it could be "apathy and a low confidence" from a townie, as you say, but it doesn't look that way to me.

You still haven’t shown that there’s a significant chance that there’s no roleblocker. As long as logic dictates that the game is “properly” balanced with a roleblocking or redirecting role in the hands of scum then Monkey’s hypothetical role now that it’s been outed is no better than vanilla.

Then we will find out that there is a roleblocker. I don't see how this is a bad thing. "Useless to us now" is bad bad BAD logic.


Sigh, I just ISOed Hoopla to compare with Socrates' comments on the Hoopla wagon. I can see his arguments. Ummm... I guess I'll go with

unvote
vote kyle

But if Hoopla turns out to be scum I will be annoyed that you have convinced me.

You can see his arguments? You guess? Do you think the Kyle argument is stronger than the hoopla argument?

[SerialClergyman]

But if Hoopla turns out to be scum I will be annoyed that you have convinced me.

YUK. Scummy.

IF Hoopla THEN nhammen.

[SerialClergyman]

EBWOP

obviously that quote is nhammen's, not SC's.

[Moai Interceptor Cannons]

MIC,

I'm here!

If you were scum and you were getting a lot of crap for V/LA problems, how would you have reacted?

I would point out that what they are accusing me for is ridiculous. I would then write a reasonable townie-looking catch up post, pointing out scummy things other town players have done but with a bit of distancing here and there on my scumbuddies as well (only if they have done anything scummy, otherwise no mention). Then depending on how suspicious my scumbuddies are, I will either join the most popular non-scum wagon* or bus one of my scumbuddies who is under heavy fire. If people continue to push that my attitude during limited access is scummy, I will ask them to clarify what exactly about my play was scummy and defend myself to the best of my ability (if the case is valid), or start acting like Danny (if the case is ridiculous).

* Unless said wagon is a claimed power role or has some other special circumstance that might discourage me from joining the wagon. In this case I might join the next popular non-scum wagon, but usually there isn't one popular enough in which case I'll just make the most logical looking vote on a non-scum person.

If town?

I would point out that what they are accusing me for is ridiculous. I would then write a sensible honest catch up post, commenting on everything, pointing out who I think is scummy and why, and possibly who I think is not scummy and why (the mayor in this case). Then I will make a sensible decision as to whose wagon I join. If I strongly disagree with the most popular wagon then I would voice my protest, if I don't really mind then I'll let it slide. If people continue to push that my attitude during limited access is scummy, I will ask them to clarify what exactly about my play was scummy and shoot down all their misconceptions (if I can see a way in which my play can be interpreted as scummy), or start acting like Danny (if the case is ridiculous).

How about if you were off a wagon when the person being wagoned claimed a power role?

Well this is the case with me in this game (Monkey's wagon). I was not in support of the Monkey wagon in the first place, and you can read of my reactions in this game if you want the practical answer. Basically I wouldn't really comment on it at all (as was the case here) unless people start acting like Kyle and saying stuff like 'he claimed cop, so he must be scum', in which case I would write a really huge wall post detailing the ridiculous stance that the town is taking and do my best to whack some common sense into them. I haven't really used his claim to justify why he shouldn't be lynched either, because I don't believe that way of thinking is correct (I campaigned to lynch a claimed doctor in my last game). The important thing to look at would be the reactions to the claim I think. Unless you're asking if I was scum?

How would you expect newbscum to react in such a situation?

I don't have an answer to this question TBH. I don't know.

Also, I agree with Serial above. Hoopla/Nhammen is starting to look like a viable scumpair. I really want Hoopla lynched today, and disappointed at the lack of support on her wagon. @Serial, IIRC you've expressed that you'd rather let Kyle get lynched than jump on the Monkey wagon - may I ask the reasoning behind this?

[SerialClergyman]

You have support in the Hoopla wagon right here, mate.

Kyle is getting away with a bit because he's so obviously new to the game and to the site. However he has acted in a scummy way at times and AFAIK isn't a cop, so he's better than a monkey lynch, imo.

DDD - even if the roleblocker argument is true, doesn't it mean somethign that he's likely to draw a roleblock or kill and leave any other roles we have open?

[charter]

Why is Hoopla voting for Serial?

nhammen, letting Monkeyman live to "find out if we have a roleblocker" is such a horrible idea. If I was a town roleblocker, I would be blocking him in a heartbeat. If Monkeyman is scum, he's probably sending in the kill then be like "oh, I investigated the dead guy, what a shame" which, quite frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if we see tomorrow anyway.

Hoopla has pulled a giant 360, from initially thinking Monkeyman is more likely to claim cop as cop than scum, to disagreeing with lynching him day one, then self preservation voting him, to now arguing about how his role is useless and we should lynch him anyway.

So many scummy people here. I'm about at the point where I'll lynch anyone but Serial, DDD, or Socrates.

[Socrates]

I don't have enough time right now to respond to everyone's responses to my post, so I will get to that tomorrow. (I think Hoopla, Monkey, and Saint are the ones who have yet to respond to the question I levied at them.)

I will say this though:

nhammen, letting Monkeyman live to "find out if we have a roleblocker" is such a horrible idea. If I was a town roleblocker, I would be blocking him in a heartbeat. If Monkeyman is scum, he's probably sending in the kill then be like "oh, I investigated the dead guy, what a shame" which, quite frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if we see tomorrow anyway.

I don't see myself letting monkey live past day 2, in all honesty. Something dramatic like a second player claiming cop with an innocent on Monkey or something tomorrow is about the only way to resolve the problem of Monkey with him still being alive. If he comes in with an investigative result on the NK target, then we lynch him on the spot, IMHO.