Mini 880 - Mini Quick and Dirty - Game Over

[VP Baltar]

@Troll and Scien- I disagree that no lynching after mass claim is stupid. If it was full reveal, I'd agree, but we don't have any clue what we are losing at night. At least if somebody is killed in full reveal and flips cop or something you can look for breadcrumbs. Here there is nothing and I think the more information we have now before making a decision is going to be clutch in making the correct choice today.

(For the record Scien, I'm not opposed to No Lynch on all grounds. I was just teasing you a bit.)

[Scien]

But if he's town, I would think he has a good idea of who's scum right now.

He's been fooled before, I'm sure it can happen again. Even if he was totally sure, I'm not sure I trust him enough to subscribe to this gamble.

[Albert B. Rampage]

That's not what I meant.

[Zorblag]

@Scien, Troll no thinks that no lynch would be a bad idea, it probably be a reasonable move (the ways that it can lead directly to a loss be fairly limited and it be a bit unclear how the odds change either way in terms of potentially loosing a power role vs. having fewer potential lynches.) Troll just thinks that in the information poor environment we be in now it be better to do the claiming while we have more players so that we have a better chance of figuring out what our overall situation be which be very desirable.

@VP Baltar, Troll no be sure whether a no lynch after the mass claim would be stupid or not. It depends on how the claim goes. If we end up no lynching it will almost certainly have been better had we done it before the mass claim though.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Scien]

Er... ok.

But weren't you saying like 10 minutes ago that there was a measurable benefit in your mind by performing a lynch today over a no-lynch? That's my grief. From my view, it is clearly the other way around.

Am I going to have to go back for a quote?

Why is your view adjusting when there is but a minimal amount of exchange going on here due to a possible upcoming claim? You are even waffling a bit (as am I) about which is the better order of no-lynch/claim if we go that route.

You seem fairly certain of yourself in some posts, and not so much in others. Would you say you are still feeling out possibilities?

[Zorblag]

Troll believes and has believed that a mass claim be better than a no lynch as an option today. Troll said that Troll feels we probably be better off lynching (after a mass claim was implicit) than not lynching and Troll still believes that. If Troll ever failed to make that clear Troll apologizes but that be why Troll's first post this day talked about the mass claim option but not the no lynch option.

Troll believes and has believed that a no lynch would likely be acceptable.

The downsides of a no lynch before a mass claim be that we have less information for determining the setup and we might lose a power role to a night kill. The upside of a no lynch today and then a mass claim tomorrow be that we might get more information from the power roles and the density of scum goes up (probably from 3/8 to 3/7). Without knowledge of how many power roles still be in the game it no be clear which of those be the bigger factor. Troll's feeling be that we have so little information right now that the benefits of the claim will be more helpful.

As for lynching after the mass claim, how the mass claim goes will determine how Troll feels about that but probably it will be better to lynch once we have the information from the claim to work with.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[crypto]

Ramp, your case on Scien?

And guys, hi, I already claimed.

I'm leaning toward having charlatan or ABR claim, due largely to ekiM and Amished. But I still want to finish my reread and get some stuff out of the way before we move forward.

Oh, and I'm not really a fan of mass claims, but I hate no-lynch at least as much. Whatever.

[Scien]

Troll believes and has believed that a mass claim be better than a no lynch as an option today. Troll said that Troll feels we probably be better off lynching (after a mass claim was implicit) than not lynching and Troll still believes that. If Troll ever failed to make that clear Troll apologizes but that be why Troll's first post this day talked about the mass claim option but not the no lynch option.

The no-lynch and claim are not mutually exclusive, as you guys keep pointing out.

Can you articulate why you 'believe' it is better to lynch today?

As for the claim. I know that any claim can be doubted, even if there is no counter claim, due to the inability to know true game state. I know that popcorn helps a bit... but even in the event of a smooth no counter claim game here, how can everyone say that a bit of confusion would not be introduced?

Sigh.

Fine, claim away. When we are done we can talk about whither its a good idea or not to lynch.

[Zorblag]

Troll believes that it is better to claim today than to no lynch right at the start. We no will be certain about who be telling the truth but the number of claims in and of itself will give us something to work with and who makes them and whether them be consistent will be new things that we can factor in when making future decisions. If we mass claim then Troll believe we will probably want to lynch once that be done. There be some chance that we will be able to narrow it down potential lynches for today based on what people claim and the scum will have information about what power roles the town have. If the claim no puts us in a position where that be the case then the no lynch option still be there Troll just no expects that be what will happen.

It comes down to Troll valuing the largest amount of information (as we should have more good information in the mix if we mass claim today rather than tomorrow when we will likely lose a member of the town to a night kill) more than potentially more detailed information from fewer players each of whom there be less reason to trust (for the same reasons that our chances of lynching scum go up slightly with fewer players in the mix.)

If you no like this stance at this point then so be it. Troll largely be repeating what Troll has already said at this point and that no be particularly productive. When the claim or the no lynch be done if this still be a major issue that will affect how we proceed Troll will deal with it again then.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Papa Zito]

I'm leaning toward having charlatan or ABR claim, due largely to ekiM and Amished. But I still want to finish my reread and get some stuff out of the way before we move forward.

lol you ponce.

You're voting me (still!) but you want someone else to claim first?

diescumdie etc

[crypto]

The horror!

Unvote.

[crypto]

And for all the chronologically challenged out there (PZ), I voted before I began my reread. Hint, hint.

[Scien]

@Troll I wouldn't say that was unproductive at all. That was easily the most organized statement of your views that you have uttered today. Much clearer than claiming one side of your thought process in some posts, and the other side of your thoughts in others. Well either that or it finally got through my thick head this time.

If we mass claim then Troll believe we will probably want to lynch once that be done.

This is one of my unstated fears. That this claim is being introduced now counting on the above, intentionally trying to get the town to lynch early. But meh. I agree we could use the information.

Just keep in mind that if there are no power roles, and no townie lies, it makes it easy for the scum to claim a PR in both senses of the word 'claim'.

Let's see what happens.

[Papa Zito]

zzzzzzzzzzz

[charlatan]

Troll would like to do a popcorn system. Unless there be any objections Troll will start the claim after people have had a chance to give input. We have 10 days to work with now so Troll would like to get this done with quickly; barring any objections Troll will be claiming tomorrow afternoon PST.

I agree with this, and I also think that it should probably be done soon, unless someone has serious and well reasoned objections. The more time we spend arguing about whether or not to massclaim, the more time scum will have to think about how to approach it. I think we have a clear majority wanting to do it. Popcorn is best; who starts is probably not important. I'd be happiest to see Scien go first, largely due to his responses to the idea.

I also think that discussing whether or not to no-lynch after the claim is pointless now, since the information we do (or don't) glean from this should inform our views on whether or not a no-lynch is the right choice. My impulse is to say that a lynch would be a good idea, but if I'm being honest it will be entirely dependent on what we learn.

Vote Scien

Explanations to come.

As for the leads thing... I have leads. But I'm not going to go off and start a bunch of discussion while we do that.

Massclaim or not, I will be interested in hearing what your thoughts/leads are, especially as they will have presumably coalesced independently of the massclaim. I am unsure if I am more interested in hearing now or later, as the former may give scum information that will help them in the inevitably uncomfortable massclaim situation, whereas the latter may be affected by the claims we see. I think that, unlike crypto, I prefer the latter.

[Scien]

Without going into it it would have mainly been carry over from discussion yesterday with VP.

[Scien]

Also does this look right?

[mrow]Person to claim first[col]People voting for them Crypto[col]VP VP[col]Scien Scien[col]ABR, Charlatan
Not voting: Zorblag, Zito, Ojanen, Crypto

[Zorblag]

@Scien, there do be a danger of scum lying about their roles, yes. The popcorn method be designed to try to make it more like that scum will have to stake out fake claims early but it clearly no be perfect.

Also, your chart looks like it be what people have said. At this point there no be much of a consensus. Scien be welcome to start the process if him sees this shortly and wants to. If him hasn't done so in about half an hour Troll will be claiming then and starting the process.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Scien]

3 people seems close enough to start.

Vanilla townie. That was easy.

VP - next

[crypto]

Grr, I want to choose. I already claimed when VP was whining about it a page ago.

[Scien]

You claimed Virginia. That doesn't count. It has to be a real place.

[Scien]

Or make that Vermont, which also isn't a place.

[crypto]

Er, Vermont = VT = Vanilla Townie.

But whatever, since you guys are insisting on blasting through this you might as well just go with VP.

[VP Baltar]

Nilla here. ABR next.

[VP Baltar]

Scratch that. PZ next.