Mini 892 - Mayor Mafia (GAME OVER)

[xRECKONERx]

Sweet. Now to fuck around until deadline so we get a no lynch and Socrates can declare a kyle lynch.

/iWin

[Moai Interceptor Cannons]

Sweet. Now to fuck around until deadline so we get a no lynch and Socrates can declare a kyle lynch.

/iWin

x
GUYS WAGON HOOPLA NOW NOW NOW
ALTERNATIVELY SOCRATES I WILL MARRY YOU IF YOU LYNCH HOOPLA

[SerialClergyman]

I think gender probably needs to be updated if you're going to push that threat/bribe MIC...

[Moai Interceptor Cannons]

I think gender probably needs to be updated if you're going to push that threat/bribe MIC...

DONE

[Socrates]

Well... you know... the swingin single's life is starting to wear on me a bit...

[SerialClergyman]

Acceptance speech please.

[Moai Interceptor Cannons]

Okay guys, I've figured out who the scum are.



See this? The scumbags standing at the back trying to look all innocent and sad YET NOT HELPING TO CARRY OUR BELOVED EX-MAYOR'S COFFIN (I'm exempt because I'm actually a girl in disguise due to me and Socrates being lovers and my dad not wanting me to get near him but I really wanted to come to the funeral anyway and if any of you get a close look at me I might blow my cover). This is UNDENIABLE EVIDENCE. LET'S LYNCH THESE BASTARDS.

[Hoopla]

No, I mean, what is the purpose behind voting for Serial? No one else seems to be suspicious of him, and your reasons are weak and you're not trying to convince anyone else he's scum.

Serial, I'm pretty sure that Monkey will be just as scummy, regardless of who we lynch today and what they flip. I can't picture anyone flipping scum that would somehow clear Monkeyman. If he gets NK'ed, then that's about the only benefit other than him being sane and getting a guilty. I don't think it's worth chancing it, but if that's what we have to do, then that's what we have to do.

Good point. There is no point voting someone who is not going to be lynched.

Unvote, vote: Monkeyman

[xRECKONERx]

LAH DEE DAH

Everyone go V/LA themselves until 1/7, please. I want a kyle lynch and Socrates being guv'nah seems to be the only way to do so

[SaintKerrigan]

@ SC: Chill, dude. I voted xReck to try and provoke a response to my question. When I got an answer I unvoted, and didn't feel the need to revote yet. If that so terribly concerns you, though, I'll have a vote out by the end of this post.

xReck did bring up some interesting points regarding Kyle99, but I don't feel that Kyle is the right lynch today. I have people who I think are scummier.

My top two suspects are MonkeyMan and Hoopla.

Hoopla: I went back through ISO, and I found a few things that stood out to me:

- Claimed in her 13th post that she didn't think MonkeyMan was a good lynch because he was more likely to claim cop as cop, versus claim cop as scum. However, she doesn't unvote him in that post.

- After being met with much disapproval, she abandons the lynch-the-mayor strategy, yet doesn't seem interested in trying to elect a town mayor.

- She votes Monkey out of "self-preservation." Since when are town players so worried about keeping themselves alive over doing actual scumhunting?

MonkeyMan: Well, I still think the misrepresentation back in [url=http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 90#1996090]Post #184[/i] is scummy, and I don't like his cop claim. He also voted for Hoopla primarily out of self-preservation, over doing real scumhunting.

All in all, cop claim or no, I think Monkeyman needs to go (hey, that rhymed).

Vote: MonkeyMan576.

Time to claim.

Oh wait...you already did...

[MonkeyMan576]

@ SC: Chill, dude. I voted xReck to try and provoke a response to my question. When I got an answer I unvoted, and didn't feel the need to revote yet. If that so terribly concerns you, though, I'll have a vote out by the end of this post.

xReck did bring up some interesting points regarding Kyle99, but I don't feel that Kyle is the right lynch today. I have people who I think are scummier.

My top two suspects are MonkeyMan and Hoopla.

Hoopla: I went back through ISO, and I found a few things that stood out to me:

- Claimed in her 13th post that she didn't think MonkeyMan was a good lynch because he was more likely to claim cop as cop, versus claim cop as scum. However, she doesn't unvote him in that post.

- After being met with much disapproval, she abandons the lynch-the-mayor strategy, yet doesn't seem interested in trying to elect a town mayor.

- She votes Monkey out of "self-preservation." Since when are town players so worried about keeping themselves alive over doing actual scumhunting?

MonkeyMan: Well, I still think the misrepresentation back in [url=http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 90#1996090]Post #184[/i] is scummy, and I don't like his cop claim. He also voted for Hoopla primarily out of self-preservation, over doing real scumhunting.

All in all, cop claim or no, I think Monkeyman needs to go (hey, that rhymed).

Vote: MonkeyMan576.

Time to claim.

Oh wait...you already did...

I've done plenty of scum hunting. I only voted out of self preservation when it was clear the choice was between me and Hoopla.

[Socrates]

Acceptance speech please.

Okay.

---

Thank you, thank you, good citizens of our fair city*! It humbles me greatly that you would look to me** for guidance in this time of fear and danger. There is much for me to do in order to help bring stability*** back, but together, I think we can work together to bring about such a happy future very soon****!

*suckers
**of all people
***stability to my wallet
****So you better start bribing me soon

---

I'll get a more serious post up in a bit.

[Socrates]

NOBODY HAMMER UNTIL I GIVE THE GO AHEAD. I AM NOT READY TO END THE DAY YET.

[SaintKerrigan]

Oh god, he's already drunk with power...

[Socrates]

Oh god, he's already drunk with power...

I still have a lot to say and ending the day before people have finished getting their thoughts out is anti town. This is especially important for the mayor role as it will undoubtedly be an occupation with a high death rate. Going forward, the town should always make sure that the mayor puts out as complete and detailed a post wrapping up their perspective on the game before going to night.

[Socrates]

Responses to people's reactions to my questions:

MIC,

I'm here!

If you were scum and you were getting a lot of crap for V/LA problems, how would you have reacted?

I would point out that what they are accusing me for is ridiculous. I would then write a reasonable townie-looking catch up post, pointing out scummy things other town players have done but with a bit of distancing here and there on my scumbuddies as well (only if they have done anything scummy, otherwise no mention).

Then depending on how suspicious my scumbuddies are, I will either join the most popular non-scum wagon* or bus one of my scumbuddies who is under heavy fire.

If people continue to push that my attitude during limited access is scummy, I will ask them to clarify what exactly about my play was scummy and defend myself to the best of my ability (if the case is valid), or start acting like Danny (if the case is ridiculous).

* Unless said wagon is a claimed power role or has some other special circumstance that might discourage me from joining the wagon.

In this case I might join the next popular non-scum wagon, but usually there isn't one popular enough in which case I'll just make the most logical looking vote on a non-scum person.

The bolded parts, I think, are the most important observations about typical scum strategy in this situation. There were plenty of easy targets that a scum hoopla who was merely concerned with plausible scum reads could attack and try to start a wagon on. Off the top of my head, she could have attacked Kyle, Monkey, Saint, and Reck without looking too terrible. A coursery glance through the thread would have told her that pretty much every single player in this game has a town read on Charter, (even those he had attacked relentlessly) and to attack him would be a foolhardy plan at best.

So, let it be established that attacking in the way she chose to do would be terrible scum strategy. Then, let is also be established that those reads must not have been very well thought out regardless of her alignment.

Why does this make her more likely scum?

How about if you were off a wagon when the person being wagoned claimed a power role?

Well this is the case with me in this game (Monkey's wagon). I was not in support of the Monkey wagon in the first place, and you can read of my reactions in this game if you want the practical answer. Basically I wouldn't really comment on it at all (as was the case here) unless people start acting like Kyle and saying stuff like 'he claimed cop, so he must be scum', in which case I would write a really huge wall post detailing the ridiculous stance that the town is taking and do my best to whack some common sense into them. I haven't really used his claim to justify why he shouldn't be lynched either, because I don't believe that way of thinking is correct (I campaigned to lynch a claimed doctor in my last game). The important thing to look at would be the reactions to the claim I think. Unless you're asking if I was scum?

I should have been more specific. If you were scum, and a wagon happened that you have yet to take a side on went to a claim and that person claimed power, what would you do?

How would you expect newbscum to react in such a situation?

I don't have an answer to this question TBH. I don't know.

An honest answer that I can understand. How about just on a gut level though? Would you be more surprised to see newbscum avoid a claimed power role like the plague, or to try and push such a wagon over the edge? (I need to double check, but I am pretty sure Kyle's vote was the first response to monkey's claim.)

---

The timing was after a claim which kyle has insisted was the reason for the vote. it's at least consistent.

I don't know - don't expect me to defend him, i just think a newbie lycnh is a wasted lynch - he's too likely ot just be bad/unconventional, in my opinion. I genuinely think Hoopla is liklier to be scum.

I meant more the timing of Kyle's posting in general. He lurked through the ENTIRE formation of the monkey wagon, and it wasn't until

after

Monkey's claim the he says that he is suspicious of Monkey and that he thinks he is the right lynch.

This is a game with high activity requirements and he still manages to do the classic lurk lurk lurk => hop on the biggest bandwagon.

---

Col. Cathart, I am running out of new perspectives on this. It seems the reason you are not on the kyle wagon is because you cannot fathom Monkey being town.

Because I cannot. I said already, if MM lynch will be impossible, I'll vote for someone from other my other suspect (Reck, Kyle, Hoopla), but as long, as there's still a chance to lynch Monkey, I'll stick with this vote. I don't remember any other player who would tilt my scumdar so much in any game on this site so far. Seriously.

How thorough is your meta on Monkeyman? Have you played with him before?

---

Charter and DDD, fair enough. The question was more to gauge whether it would even be possible for me to convince you to move off of Monkey for today.

---

Hoopla hasn't responded to the question I asked her. Monkey hasn't either.

---

As for my opinion on Kyle...my general impression of him has been newb town so far, but it's been awhile since I've felt fully on top of this game, so that might not be an accurate read. I still owe everyone a reread, and once it's done, I'll post my thoughts.

Thats interesting. Lots of players have expressed decidedly neutral and unsure reads on Kyle, but you are the first person pretty much all game to explicitly state a town read on Kyle. Please, give your reasons for this.

My next post will detail my perspective on each of the major cases and what I think they say about alignments.

[SaintKerrigan]

Oh god, he's already drunk with power...

I still have a lot to say and ending the day before people have finished getting their thoughts out is anti town. This is especially important for the mayor role as it will undoubtedly be an occupation with a high death rate. Going forward, the town should always make sure that the mayor puts out as complete and detailed a post wrapping up their perspective on the game before going to night.

You do realize that my post was a joke, right?

[kyle99]

The main explanation most of you give for voting me is that I "jumped on the bandwagon" and voted monkey. Socrates, you said that my the fact that I voted for him right after he claimed cop seemed suspicious, however this would only seem scummy if you thought that monkey was cop. So I'm just curious Socrates, do you think that monkey is the actual cop?

[xRECKONERx]

^ Lynch him.

[kyle99]

^ Lynch him.

Ok, we all get the point, you want to lynch me. You don't have to keep saying it, we've already heard it plenty of times.

[Socrates]

I personally like it when a new alternative wagon appears, as I think the way people respond to those is a very concrete way to establish connections between players.

DISCLAIMER: RAMPANT SPECULATION BASED ON DAY 1 READS AHEAD, FOLLOW AT ONES OWN RISK.

Here's what I expect:

If Kyle is town, scum would not have much reason to cling to a bus vote and any scum that are bussing would hop over. As such, the fact that almost nobody did is indicative to me that if kyle IS town, and one of {Hoopla, Monkey} is scum, then most of the scum are very probably currently located on the other's wagon. This means that if one of them flips scum, it IS town points for those on that wagon

Two bonus observations: This means that Nhammen did exactly what I expected a scum that was bussing would do. This observation fails to account for Reck. He would need to be read independently.

Kyle and Hoopla can possibly be scum buddies. Nothing dramatic pulling one way or the other. Kyle has said nothing about Hoopla at all except for his early support on her, and Hoopla played neutral on him.

Monkey and Kyle probably wouldn't be buddies based on the way kyle voted for him.

Hoopla could have originally been bussing Monkey and she is currently voting him out of self preservation, so her pressure on Monkey is not an associative tell one way or the other.

If both Kyle and Hoopla are scum, I expect the ENTIRE scum team to be on the monkey wagon. (In other words, if there are 3 scum, then I expect the third scum to also be voting Monkey right now.)

If Kyle is scum:

- scum would NOT bus him here, so RECK and Nhammen would be town.
- Take a good hard look at SaintKerrigan.
- Monkey is likely town.

If Monkey is scum:

I detailed this before. My picks for reasonable buddies would be found in {RECK, Saint, SC, Hoopla, Col. Cathart, and Nhammen) With anti-buddy points for RECK and Saint. Pro-buddy points would be added to SerialClergyman because of how he jumped off of the Monkey wagon.

If Hoopla is scum, SC is town, and visa-versa.

If RECK is scum, Kyle is town.

Col. Cathart: Has managed to not make any defining associative tells during the course of the day. The way he has clung to his Monkey vote in the face of multiple other wagons IS notable, but his vote on monkey is well within bus range, so it isn't definitive. He hasn't been strong on anything else. I guess his intense dislike of RECK's play could count, but he never pushed it very hard.

Putting this all together, here are my picks on scum groups:

for Kyle, buddies from most likely to least likely (factoring personal reads):

Saint
{Col. Cathart, Hoopla, MIC, SC}
DDD
Charter
Monkeyman
Nhammen
RECKONER

For Monkey:

{SerialClergyman, Nhammen, Hoopla}
{Col. Cathart, RECKONER, SaintKerrigan}
MIC
DDD
Kyle
Charter

For Hoopla:

Nhammen
DDD
{RECKONER, SaintKerrigan, Col. Cathart, Kyle, Monkey}
MIC
Charter
SerialClergyman

Now, this is tentative as hell, and a lot of these thoughts are independant of each other, so I had a hard time tieing them together. Please point out any inconsistencies that you see.

[SerialClergyman]

For the most part that's an excellent post. Be careful to judge individual probabiliies when you haev more information, because when you've done all this work there's a habit of just using it as a lookup table when some reads are more solid than others.

The only thing I'd question personally is this:

If Hoopla is scum, SC is town,

and visa-versa.

Why am I scum if Hoopla is town? Or did you mean more likely to be scum?

Personally, I feel it's more likely I'm scum if monkey is scum than if Hoopla is town.

[Socrates]

EBWOP:

I also forgot a 4th scenario, all 3 are town. Let me get that up.

[SerialClergyman]

Also - don't discount chater as a buddy for Hoopla. There is a lot of talk about suporting the case but his actions have been flat out against a Hoopla wagon for a while, pushign heavily the counter wagon.

[Socrates]

For the most part that's an excellent post. Be careful to judge individual probabiliies when you haev more information, because when you've done all this work there's a habit of just using it as a lookup table when some reads are more solid than others.

The only thing I'd question personally is this:

If Hoopla is scum, SC is town,

and visa-versa.

Why am I scum if Hoopla is town? Or did you mean more likely to be scum?

Personally, I feel it's more likely I'm scum if monkey is scum than if Hoopla is town.

I mean that if you are scum, then Hoopla is town.