Newbie 873 - Game Over.

For Newbie Games, which have a set format and experienced moderators. Archived during the 2023 queue overhaul.
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Post Post #300 (ISO) » Sat Dec 19, 2009 5:23 pm

Post by Crimmy »

First things first, I didn't just say it was F11, I said what kind of F11.

F11 with a Mafia roleblocker. Which means we've also got a sane doctor and a sane cop.
I need the sane cop to step out, for I am the sane doctor.
How do I know it?
'Cause I protected Michel tonight, and he got killed. Therefore, there's
a mafia roleblocker.

And my suspect is cades/Kyiv.
Dimaba strikes me as odd, but I can't figure it out correctly.
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Post Post #301 (ISO) » Sat Dec 19, 2009 5:41 pm

Post by Kyiv »

Popping in to confirm my existence. I've spent all day out of the house and I'm really tired at the moment, but I have read through the thread, just haven't the energy to build up a good post.

So Crimmy's claimed... who did you protect Night 1?

I guess if Crimmy has already claimed, the cop should also come forth with his investigations. If no cop comes forth, we will have to deal somehow with Crimmy. If nothing else, the cop coming forth will give us two mostly-confirmed townies and make our job easier. Considering that the town is in lylo, there isn't much reason for not coming forth now that the doc has claimed, especially being claimed roleblocked.
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Post Post #302 (ISO) » Sat Dec 19, 2009 5:44 pm

Post by Crimmy »

My first try for protection was cades.
Why?
'Cause he was stupid enough on D1 to say that, if he was killed during that night, then CSL and Jackabomb would be the suspects.
Since we know now that CSL is no scum, I suspected that somebody would try to kill him that night to get the attention somewhere else.

However, it did strike me as odd that he was untouched, and that Brother, a guy who was completely harmless, was killed instead.
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Post Post #303 (ISO) » Sat Dec 19, 2009 6:12 pm

Post by Jackabomb »

Are you saying that you didn't want him killed because it would put suspiscion on me and CSL? What made you decide to protect michel?
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Post Post #304 (ISO) » Sat Dec 19, 2009 9:24 pm

Post by foilist13 »

I don't know what to make of this right now. I'd love te believe crimmy's claim, but don't you dare all just take his word for it. Notice that one of the scenarios is a roleblocker and no town power roles. If that were the case, the scum tean could pull off being the power roles with pathetic ease. Normally the cop will come out on day two with his investigations, forcing the scum to look for the doctor while he is protected. Since that didn't happen, we need to sriously question whether this is real, or a gambit in lylo to get a vote. If 1 townie votes wrong here, the scum can dog pile and win with impunity. Now I ask you, what better way to get a vote on someone than by claiming cop, with a doc claim to back it up, and no town power roles to counter claim?

As much as it would make our jobs easier, we simply cannot buy the claim and act on at this point in the game, as there is essentially a 50% chance that it would be suicide.

Now while we cannot accept the claim to be true, we also can't ignore it. We have to see who will come out as the cop, because someone will claim irrespective of crimmy's alignment, whether it is his scum buddy or the real cop. What we have to do then is analyse what will be both sides of the town and decide which one the scum are on, because they WILL both be on one of them, crimmy has seen to that. This is a super delicate situation here guys.

Above all, DO NOT vote unless you are absolutely sure, because if you are wrong the scum WILL dog pile, and we will have lost our town. We have to make it through two days of lylo, so now is when it is time to employ crimmy's earlier strategy of not voting. Here it is pro-town to do so, where as then it was not.

Now for my scum list.

1) Crimmy. His doc claim was not the right town move, as he just lost the chance to pull us out of lylo by protecting accurately and lynching scum today. No good town player would even consider doing that, but he is a newbie. That only goes so far though, and for now he occupies the number one place on my scum list.

2) Jackabomb. He hammered day one, and essentially took credit for hammering day two, both on townies. Not a good move, but it is explainable. His read on me could also be interpreted as blatant buddying. Maybe it's a legitimate read, but unless other people agree with it I'm inclined to think it wasn't totally innocent. For that he gets the number two place on my scum list.

3) Dimaba. He has been scum lurking since day 1. He drops in to post some townie looking content, then disappears to allow attention to settle elsewhere. Scum tell if I ever saw one. Night one brother was killed, whose sole suspect had been dimaba. Interesting at the least. For those he gets the number three place on my scum list.

4) Cades/kyiv. Lurking is only a scum tell until you get replaced. Him leaving the game shows that his mindset was not one of trying to avoid attention, but of not caring about the game. That makes it a null tell. Kyiv has some posting to do though.
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Post Post #305 (ISO) » Sun Dec 20, 2009 2:42 am

Post by dimaba »

I can confirm that we're playing with 1 goon, one mafia roleblocker, a cop and a doc. I am the cop. I was roleblocked on my first investigation and investigated cades (now Kyiv) on night 2. Kyiv is innocent. I did not come forward with my investigation on day 2 since I had nothing of interest to report. Had I claimed cop without presenting any information it would have been easy for the mafia to roleblock me all the way through while trying to kill off the doc, while the only thing it would've done for the town was to confirm that a roleblocker is in play. It would've made me useless as a power role until we found and lynched the mob roleblocker.

Noting that nobody else has claimed doc, I will assume that Crimmy's claim is correct.

The obvious conclusion is that foilist13 and jackabomb are scum.
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Post Post #306 (ISO) » Sun Dec 20, 2009 4:32 am

Post by Kyiv »

The cop claim makes sense... The two biggest lurkers in the game were dimaba and brother... but brother's pro-town image from the few posts he made could easily insinuate power role. From scum perspective (assuming that dimaba's claim is correct), they both easily could have been power roles, or simply good kills as they were lurkers, and both were targeted night 1. Cades was too valuable to kill off because of his scummy image throughout the entire game. So I believe the cop claim.

The doc claim is on very shaky ground... but if the cop claim is to be believed, then so must the doc claim (especially since no one has counter-claimed, and it is now too late to do so).

This works pretty well because I've had a growing case on Jackabomb as I was reading through the thread... and here we go:

First off, he attempts to stifle conversation during RVS. All votes warrant investigation, RVS or not. How -much- investigation is relative, but it's always worth looking into why people voted others. Over-defensive behavior. Not much of a scum-tell, but it's one of the few things that triggered my gut. He asks permission here to hammer. Why would a semi-experienced player (Yes, he has played two games before this one, albeit one was mod abandoned, and the other he had flaked) ask permission to hammer? In fact, why would anyone ask permission to hammer? It seems to me that he was confident in his read of McGriddle and quite eager to hammer, but then he stops to ask a townie if it's okay. Newb-town would hammer straight out, or just wait for more discussion. Scum, would hesitate, but jump at any opportunity to hammer without responsibility that is handed to them. He later, in twilight, attempts to absolve all people on the Mcgriddle wagon.

I hate to derail my own argument, but when I went back I stumbled onto this post by Foilist. NK speculation day 2 almost always yields no results. His last sentence is just a confusing mess of words which whirlpools into WIFOM. It very much seems like he's trying to shift attention onto dimaba and away from Jackabomb (and consequently, CSL as well.)

Anyways, back to Jackabomb. Here, he tries to argue that nothing would be gained by waiting a bit longer. It's quickly rebutted by Michel here:
MichelSableheart wrote:What you would have gained were responses from foilist, brother, dimaba and me. I know this is stated after the hammer, and therefore can't be checked, but I would have unvoted simply because I didn't like the way CSL put McGriddle at L-1 at all.
After the hammer fury at the beginning of day 2, all accusations come raining down on CSL, spearheaded by Foilist, and backed up by Michel. Jackabomb lies low and makes posts about his rather vague stance.. And as I continue, I'm seeing more and more connection with Foilist. Here, he completely switches his targets from crimmy and CSL to CSL and cades (who is Jackabomb's target). He attempts to buddy with Michel, and advocates a cades lynch, despite clearly advocating a CSL lynch. Note that he completely forgets that throughout both those posts, he is voting for Crimmy. Not CSL, not cades, but Crimmy. He finally drops Crimmyhere. He tries to plant the idea that town CSL would = town Jack. CSL has flipped town, he now believes Jack is town, but what kind of evidence is there that would make him think this? Simply because he does not think that scum would ask a town to hammer?
foilist13 wrote:The only scenario I see where Jack is likely to be scum is if csl is scum also, because while he would be cautious around a town player, I think he would trust his scum buddy not to throw him under the bus.
He proves himself wrong within his own argument, CSL and Jack cannot be scum together, because a CSL scum would not "throw his partner under the bus". While it makes sense for Jack to believe his hypothetical CSL partner, it makes NO sense why a CSL scum would put his partner in such a delicate position to begin with.

Also, Jackabomb comes out and asks for town's permission to hammer a second time: viewtopic.php?p=2014883#2014883

I'm trying to wrap this up because I'm being rushed out the door, so here are my posts indicating my belief that Crimmy is town:

Here
Here
And here

And lastly, I want everyone to realize the situation we're in right now. The scum team has been exposed. Scum is either Crimmy and dimaba, or it is Foilist and Jackabomb. No other combination is plausible. And I think it's a little clear which why I'm leaning. And if it isn't:

FoS: Jackabomb
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Post Post #307 (ISO) » Sun Dec 20, 2009 7:43 am

Post by Jackabomb »

Would I be correct in saying that you don't really want a defense from me? The way your post is written seems only useful for racking up evidence without giving me a chance to explain. Most of those incidents, do indeed have an explanation.
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Post Post #308 (ISO) » Sun Dec 20, 2009 8:14 am

Post by Kyiv »

You're certainly welcome to defend yourself. There's a reason I haven't voted you yet, and I want everybody to point out anything I may have missed.
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Post Post #309 (ISO) » Sun Dec 20, 2009 10:56 am

Post by Crimmy »

foilist13 wrote:I don't know what to make of this right now.
I'd love te believe crimmy's claim, but don't you dare all just take his word for it. Notice that one of the scenarios is a roleblocker and no town power roles. If that were the case, the scum tean could pull off being the power roles with pathetic ease. Normally the cop will come out on day two with his investigations, forcing the scum to look for the doctor while he is protected. Since that didn't happen, we need to sriously question whether this is real, or a gambit in lylo to get a vote. If 1 townie votes wrong here, the scum can dog pile and win with impunity. Now I ask you, what better way to get a vote on someone than by claiming cop, with a doc claim to back it up, and no town power roles to counter claim?
Another stupid move, foilist. What better way to tell the scum what to do, than giving the whole plan they should follow?

Also, I didn't ask for anything but a cop. Never asked people to trust me, never told them who to vote for, nothing at all.
foilist13 wrote: As much as it would make our jobs easier, we simply cannot buy the claim and act on at this point in the game, as there is essentially a 50% chance that it would be suicide.
Who said people SHOULD work on this assumption? People can do whatever they think is right. I said so, because I wanted people to know what to look out for. And, as far as I recall, we're playing an all-or-nothing game right now, aren't we?
foilist13 wrote: Now while we cannot accept the claim to be true, we also can't ignore it. We have to see who will come out as the cop, because someone will claim irrespective of crimmy's alignment, whether it is
his scum buddy
or the real cop. What we have to do then is analyse what will be both sides of the town and decide which one the scum are on, because they WILL both be on one of them, crimmy has seen to that. This is a super delicate situation here guys.
I could have claimed something else, like cop, but then that would have made the real cop complain, thus killing me, and making the mafia instantly winning.
foilist13 wrote: Above all, DO NOT vote unless you are absolutely sure, because if you are wrong the scum WILL dog pile, and we will have lost our town. We have to make it through two days of lylo, so now is when it is time to employ crimmy's earlier strategy of not voting. Here it is pro-town to do so, where as then it was not.
NOW you are being quite contradictory. Why is it that we shouldn't act cautiously before, but should now? I kept saying to be cautious at all times, even at the beggining of the game. You kept saying it was stupid to do so. So why change hearts now?

Either you play cautiously at all times, or you don't.

foilist13 wrote: Now for my scum list.

1) Crimmy. His doc claim was not the right town move, as he just lost the chance to pull us out of lylo by protecting accurately and lynching scum today. No good town player would even consider doing that, but he is a newbie. That only goes so far though, and for now he occupies the number one place on my scum list.
Excuse me, what part of "Roleblocker" did you not understand?
Maybe some shiny new glasses for christmas would fit you well.
I
protected
Michel, moron. The fact that you don't trust me is of no concern to me, I'm only trying to get through this game with a win on the town side. Now, since there's a Roleblocker here, it would seem
obvious
that he would analyze, just like I'm doing, who I would protect. Guess what? It JUST HAPPENED TONIGHT!

And, once more, didn't you say it was stupid to have "suspects", and the only way to make them come out would be by voting? So, why do you have this "scum list"?
foilist13 wrote: 2) Jackabomb. He hammered day one, and essentially took credit for hammering day two, both on townies. Not a good move, but it is explainable. His read on me could also be interpreted as blatant buddying. Maybe it's a legitimate read, but unless other people agree with it I'm inclined to think it wasn't totally innocent. For that he gets the number two place on my scum list.

3) Dimaba. He has been scum lurking since day 1. He drops in to post some townie looking content, then disappears to allow attention to settle elsewhere. Scum tell if I ever saw one. Night one brother was killed, whose sole suspect had been dimaba. Interesting at the least. For those he gets the number three place on my scum list.

4) Cades/kyiv. Lurking is only a scum tell until you get replaced. Him leaving the game shows that his mindset was not one of trying to avoid attention, but of not caring about the game. That makes it a null tell. Kyiv has some posting to do though.
The other statements are still in question, I have to do some more reading for some more info on this.

Then again, regarding Dimaba, it would be really STUPID to bump off the guy who was voting for you, don't you think? Even for a newb, it would sprinkle suspicion all over oneself, don't you agree?

So, how can it be that the Semi-Experienced player makes such a mistake, as to accuse somebody of something so silly?
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Post Post #310 (ISO) » Sun Dec 20, 2009 12:07 pm

Post by Jackabomb »

I hate to derail my own argument, but when I went back I stumbled onto this post by Foilist.
Hahahaha. The post you link us to is the wrong one. :D
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Post Post #311 (ISO) » Sun Dec 20, 2009 12:25 pm

Post by Jackabomb »

Kyiv, each of those instances was in a separate context. I'll start with the first: The vote we were referring to didn't require any
further
explanation.
2. Over defensive behavior: It wasn't over-defensive because I didn't feel threatened. It was annoyed. Cades was wasting everybody's time.
3. I asked permission to hammer because I didn't want to appear scummy. This hasn't really succeeded, however.
4. I hammered because I got said permission.
5. Claiming nothing gained from delayed hammer: When I referred to wave, I was talking about posts other than the ones I and CSL had made. In addition, I didn't realize that it was not yet the lynch wagon.
6. Vague stance: any stance I could have given would have been completely biased at that point.
7. Asking permission to hammer again: This time, I made it clear that I would wait for permission from multiple players before hammering.

If you call this over-defensive, I have good reason to be.
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Post Post #312 (ISO) » Sun Dec 20, 2009 3:11 pm

Post by foilist13 »

@Crimmy

1) There is no other course of action for scum to follow based on what has happened. It is my job as an SE to teach you about game theory irrespective of my win condition. I'm trying to win, but I'm more interested in bring you all into the site so that we can have fun playing more serious games.

Now that being said, there was also reason for my statement.
We have to question your claim, and also Dimaba's.
The fact that you are attacking me for showing the obvious danger is extremely scummy.

As it stands now, the clear result is that 1, you and dimaba are scum, or 2, me and Jackabomb are scum.

2) I'm not condemning you for saying that people should work on the assumption, I am telling them not to. Your claim means that you are either the doc or scum, not that you are the doc.

3) That is totally meaningless. The same thing would apply as doc, and the other power role has no knowledge of the first unless he is the cop and investigated, in which case he would have come out already.

[quote=Crimmy]Excuse me, what part of "Roleblocker" did you not understand?
Maybe some shiny new glasses for christmas would fit you well.
I protected Michel, moron. The fact that you don't trust me is of no concern to me, I'm only trying to get through this game with a win on the town side. Now, since there's a Roleblocker here, it would seem obvious that he would analyze, just like I'm doing, who I would protect. Guess what? It JUST HAPPENED TONIGHT!

And, once more, didn't you say it was stupid to have "suspects", and the only way to make them come out would be by voting? So, why do you have this "scum list"?[/quote]

Crimmy, I am going to refrain from insulting you as this is a newbie game and I am the SE, but this was a ridiculous excuse for a post.

The scum do not know if the roleblock worked.
They simply see the results of their NK. There is no way for the scum to know if they successfully roleblocked, or if the person they roleblocked was even a PR. They simply do not have that information. It is an extremely common play not to protect the
most townie player. It is WIFOM, and therefore to be dismissed.

How could you possibly think it would not be a good idea to go for another protect, rather than outing yourself, and ensuring that you would be killed?


[quote=Crimmy]Now, since there's a Roleblocker here, it would seem obvious that he would analyze, just like I'm doing, who I would protect. Guess what? It JUST HAPPENED TONIGHT! [/quote]

That has absolutely nothing to do with it. Who you will protect is irrelevant to the RB. The scum decide who to kill, then look for someone to RB incase they protect that person. Analyzing who they will protect simply does not matter. As scum you must assume they are going to protect the person you NK, and RB who you think is the doctor or the cop.

Your claims are fundamentally inaccurate and misleading. Even newbie town don't make those kind of mistakes.

[quote=Crimmy]Then again, regarding Dimaba, it would be really STUPID to bump off the guy who was voting for you, don't you think? Even for a newb, it would sprinkle suspicion all over oneself, don't you agree?

So, how can it be that the Semi-Experienced player makes such a mistake, as to accuse somebody of something so silly?[/quote]

This right here is the most damning evidence of this game. On D2 I discussed how this was WIFOM. The only reason that is partially valid in a newbie game is because newbie players are far less likely to think further down than the surface of WIFOM statements.

The fact that you question this proves you didn't read the thread carefully, as you would have know I said that.
This is one of the most fundamental and widely accepted scum tells of this game.
The scum do not read the thread as carefully as town, and never as carefully as the town in lylo. The reason for this is that scum do not have to find who the scum is. They already know. They only have to find ways to get other people lynched.

@Kyiv - Can you imagine for a second, that the scum just happened to be right on not one, but both of their role blocks? That is the most convenient thing I have ever seen in my career on this game. Let's look at the odds of this shall we. There were no PR tells in this game, other than general playstyle, but everyone plays PR's differently.

That means that D1 we had a 2/9 chance of lynching a PR, and D2 a 2/7 chance. Those are reasonable odds, however, let's look at the odds of the scum getting two successful roleblocks on both PRs. D1 that's a 1/7 chance of getting the cop, and D2 that's a 1/5 chance of getting the cop. However,
the odds of getting both roleblocks right are 35 to 1.
I hope that makes you think twice about their claim.

Please don't attack my probabilities. I had them checked by several people, and they are mathematically correct.

Right now it
is
between me/jackabomb and Crimmy/Dimaba. Therefore them defending each other and me and jackabomb defending each other is to be expected.
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Post Post #313 (ISO) » Sun Dec 20, 2009 3:21 pm

Post by foilist13 »

Ok, Kyiv. Your three posts that you say make Crimmy town are flawed. Here's why.

1) He attacked Jackabomb and CSL, one of whom we know is town. I fail to see how this makes him pro-town, as it would be an equally logical move as scum.

2) I don't know for sure what you meant, but I'm going to assume it was his idea to wait that makes you think he's town until you tell me otherwise, k?

Michel, our confirmed town IC said, as did I that that was a bad idea. I would also like all of you to notice that our confirmed town IC agreed with me solidly for the first two days. I think that gives me some major town points here.

3) Again, this would be an equally logical post as scum. Crimmy knew CSL was town, and so he could have won some town points by being the one who was cautious and didn't try to get him lynched. He could easily afford that, as there was no way CSL was going to survive based on the way he played. (He hammered himself, which probably disqualifies him from ever SE'ing again).
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Post Post #314 (ISO) » Sun Dec 20, 2009 4:08 pm

Post by Jackabomb »

Kyiv, don't count me as SE level. If I was SE level, I would have signed up
as
an SE.

Foilist, wouldn't that have to be a 1/6 chance during N1 and a 1/4 chance N2? I don't think you took the day lynches into account. It would still be a 1/24 chance.
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Post Post #315 (ISO) » Sun Dec 20, 2009 4:17 pm

Post by Jackabomb »

Dimaba, who was your N1 investigation?

I also think the
times
they were 'role-blocked' are curiously convenient. Look. Crimmy claims to be roleblocked night 2 when his target dies. He protected the experienced guy(the proper move for doc), but was roleblocked. How tragic.
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Post Post #316 (ISO) » Sun Dec 20, 2009 4:52 pm

Post by Crimmy »

Okay then, foilist.
If you're so sure of me being scum, vote me.
Now.

Do it.

Personally, if you're pro-town, you would have known NOBODY knew what CSL was.
Then, how can you prove I knew such a thing?

Major flaw, right there.

Once more, vote me.
Mafia wins if you do, so do it. That way you'll win.
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Post Post #317 (ISO) » Sun Dec 20, 2009 5:09 pm

Post by foilist13 »

vote: Crimmy.


You knew because you are scum.

There is no danger in voting now. The only vote that matters is Kyiv's.
"If you are going to tell people the truth, you had better make them laugh. Otherwise they'll kill you."
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Post Post #318 (ISO) » Sun Dec 20, 2009 5:11 pm

Post by foilist13 »

vote: Crimmy.


You knew because you are scum.

There is no danger in voting now. The only vote that matters is Kyiv's.
"If you are going to tell people the truth, you had better make them laugh. Otherwise they'll kill you."
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Post Post #319 (ISO) » Sun Dec 20, 2009 5:23 pm

Post by cades »

The replaced, like the dead, are silent in this game.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh
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Post Post #320 (ISO) » Sun Dec 20, 2009 5:26 pm

Post by Jackabomb »

Crimmy, I find this odd. You say 'vote me, mafia wins if you do'. This is ATE. Also, you seem to forget that foilist is your scum suspect. That statement operates on the assumption that scum would quickly add on two votes, making three, thus hammer. Wait, if scum are adding on two
in addition
to his, he can't be scum now can he? Your logic hasn't held so well, crummy.
For God so loved the world that he gave his one and only Son, that whoever believes in him shall not perish but have eternal life. John 3:16

If this has even so much as piqued your interest or you'd like to talk, please send me a PM. Even if it's to disagree, insult me, or just to say you're sick of reading the verse, I'm glad to listen.
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Post Post #321 (ISO) » Sun Dec 20, 2009 6:03 pm

Post by foilist13 »

Please vote him Jackabomb, you have to be town, so I'm not worried about scum dog piling.

He and Dimaba are the scum. They have to be. Vote Crimmy, and lets finish this.

Based on the possibilities at the beginning of the game, there is now literally a 50% chance, based solely on the role possibilities that they are the scum, or we are the scum. This leaves out Kyiv, as he is obv town.

This however adds the fact that in order for their claims to be true, they must have overcome 35 to 1 odds.

Or 24 to 1 based on Jackabomb's math.

That is essentially saying "I'll either pull a king of spades, or a queen of hearts right out of this deck. Boom, did it." Personally I think that would be a pretty good magic trick.
"If you are going to tell people the truth, you had better make them laugh. Otherwise they'll kill you."
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Post Post #322 (ISO) » Sun Dec 20, 2009 6:09 pm

Post by Crimmy »

@ Jack: Nope. AtE is when you want people to stop looking at you by using silly excuses. Like saying: Every time I get into a game, people vote me! I'm so friggin sad! Please!
If he is really pro-town, this'll just prove what a louse he is at playing.
If he is mafia, which is what I believe, it wouldn't change things much, since we're obviously losing right now.

So yeah, here's the lethal inyection, do it.
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Post Post #323 (ISO) » Sun Dec 20, 2009 6:15 pm

Post by Crimmy »

Also, how does foilist know kyiv is town? is it magic?

NOPE! IT'S HIS SCUM BUDDY!

Sloppy playing, foilist, you can't possibly obviate a player.
I was simply looking for something to have some proof against foilist.
He just made an obvious scum point. How can he be sure Jack is townie?
How can he be sure kyiv is townie? Truth is, he doesn't know if dimaba and I are townie, or doc, or cop. He knows we aren't scum, and that's enough for him to get us.
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Post Post #324 (ISO) » Sun Dec 20, 2009 6:15 pm

Post by Crimmy »

Not that it matters now, since somebody else is gonna scumpile me, and this game is done for.
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Quoth the server: 404. ~

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