Newbie 873 - Game Over.

[Zorblag]

Vote Count 3.1

The numbers by the voters indicate the order in which the vote was cast. If two or more players are tied for the most votes to lynch at the deadline the tiebreaker will be the player who has the earliest active vote.

Crimmy: 1: foilist13 (1)

Not Voting: Crimmy, dimaba, Jackabomb, Kyiv

With 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch. Currently Crimmy would be lynched at deadline. Deadline is 5:00 PM EST/2:00 PM PST on Saturday, January 9th, 2010.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Jackabomb]

I'm still under suspicion from crimmy and dimaba, I believe. You know kyiv's vote is the one that matters, why ask me to help vote? It'll only look like scum dog piling. If that is enough for crimmy and dimaba to get kyiv to lynch one of us instead, town loses.

[Crimmy]

So why is it that foilist is voting right now, when he said NOT to?

[Crimmy]

Right now, if foilist is scum, then piling can't be filled, unless one of the remaining townies falls for his accusations. Which means he's trying to get me killed by making bull statements, and hoping a townie votes, and then his buddy will finish the scumpile.

Also, everybody is under suspicion right now. however, nobody replied to dimaba's cop claim so I feel almost certain he is a cop.
I know I'm a doc, but nobody would buy it, so it doesn't matter much.

foilist is really making a contradiction right now, and making really bad arguments, because he want's to hurry the kill.

[Jackabomb]

He said not to before we got the crimmy/dimaba vs jack/foil situation. Things changed. His vote doesn't really matter a whole lot unless he has "The Judge" on his side.

[Crimmy]

More to post tomorrow (real time), in case I'm still alive.

[foilist13]

Crimmy, you are not paying attention. I know you are the scum. Period. There is no danger to the town in voting you.

There has been no counter claim to either of you. That proves that the two of you are either the scum, or PRs. If another power role existed they would come out now, or sacrifice the town.

This is why Kyiv is town:

Based on the two claims, you both have to be either scum of the PRs. In both of those cases Kyiv is town, 1 because you are the scum, or two because the cop investigation was legitimate.

The fact that you did not know that further proves that you are not reading the thread, and are trying to power play these made up roles.

There is no way the scum got both of those role blocks right in such a convenient way, or at all, and there is no way based on your posts that you are reading the thread, and Dimaba is

still

scum lurking. The game is over. Town wins.

Jackabomb and kyiv, please hammer Crimmy. There is 0% chance of any other possibility.

[Crimmy]

Crimmy, you are not paying attention.

I know you are the scum. Period. There is no danger to the town in voting you.

There has been no counter claim to either of you. That proves that the two of you are either the scum, or PRs. If another power role existed they would come out now, or sacrifice the town.

This is why Kyiv is town:

Based on the two claims, you both have to be either scum of the PRs. In both of those cases Kyiv is town, 1 because you are the scum, or two because the cop investigation was legitimate.

Since you said kyiv is town, then the read was legit. If it's legit, then I'm the other power role, and you're scum. If I'm PR, Dimaba is PR, and Kyiv is town. So foilist and Jack are scum, so there.

Once more, why rush things, foilist, when you're the one who started the day by saying we should not rush it.

[foilist13]

Crimmy, saying my arguments are bad without refuting them is as scummy a maneuver as it is possible to make.

Your point about no one questioning the cop claim is also factually inaccurate.

I am saying that you and Dimaba are scum buddies, and therefore both your claims are false.

None of my arguments are based in anything other than mathematical fact and the most relied upon scum tells in this game.

Of course I want to hurry the kill, because once you are dead, we win. You are blatantly ignoring the fundamental contradictions in your arguments, and ignoring the points I make about you. There is no way you could be anything other than the scum.

And you just said I made a contradiction, what was it? Please do tell. Does 1+1 not =2 anymore?

[Crimmy]

Well, do whatever you want.
I need sleep, and since I'm pretty sure you'll hammer me during my sleep, then I don't care much right now.

[foilist13]

Jesus Christ Crimmy, you've ignored everything I am telling you.

Obviously that is one of the two possibilities of equal likelyhood, however it relies on a 1 to 24 chance for it to be true. Do the math my friend.

[Crimmy]

Crimmy, saying my arguments are bad without refuting them is as scummy a maneuver as it is possible to make.

Your point about no one questioning the cop claim is also factually inaccurate.

I am saying that you and Dimaba are scum buddies, and therefore both your claims are false.

None of my arguments are based in anything other than mathematical fact and the most relied upon scum tells in this game.

Of course I want to hurry the kill, because once you are dead, we win. You are blatantly ignoring the fundamental contradictions in your arguments, and ignoring the points I make about you. There is no way you could be anything other than the scum.

And you just said I made a contradiction, what was it? Please do tell. Does 1+1 not =2 anymore?

There is a way we're not, and you said it yourself. if the read was legit.
It is legit. And the fact that people have not refuted our claims doesn't mean it's fake.
it means that the other guys are not the PR's, and therefore, don't want to make a stupid mistake of saying the're the real Power Roles.


And I did say what were your contradictions.
Please do read the thread, don't just try to refute things making silly arguments.

[Crimmy]

Well, once more, do whatever you want.
Eyes are heavy, and tomorrow is important.

And it doesn't matter if the town loses, anyway.
It's just a game.

So do it, hammer on.

[Crimmy]

In case I'm dead, there is one saying here in Mexico:

"El que nada debe, nada teme."
"He, who hides naught, fears naught."

[Crimmy]

So, those are my final words.

Goodbye, gentlemen, and nice game.

[foilist13]

@Kyiv - Crimmy has brought up no scum tells against me or Jackabomb. It is mathematically impossible for the scum team to be anything other than foilist13/jackabomb or Crimmy/Dimaba.

I have made several points.

1) There is a 24 to 1 chance that the scum team is Crimmy/Dimaba.

2) He is ignoring arguments, and pressing the original point, which is simply the statement of the situation we are in.

3) He is claiming false contradictions.

4) Dimaba has been scum lurking since day one.

That last post was the most damning one yet.

That is what I have been saying since the beginning of this debate Crimmy.

You are posting from the assumption that you are town, which is a given in every post, and you are basing your entire argument on it. That is no point at all.

You've lost, you've admitted it. We all know that you are the scum.

[Jackabomb]

First, kyiv is town, no matter who the scum is. Second, deja vu. Crimmy suddenly stops caring about the result. Third, listen to his wording, "nobody would buy it". Freudian slip?

[Jackabomb]

I assume crimmy is officially lurking until the endgame?

[dimaba]

How could you possibly think it would not be a good idea to go for another protect, rather than outing yourself, and ensuring that you would be killed?

Simple maths maybe?

Knowing the setup of the game, knowing that we now have 3 pro-town players left, he had the choice between guessing who was town and who wasn't, hoping to lynch and protect correctly, and encouraging claims. Encouraging claims would give us at least 2 confirmed townies and depending on the results of the cop's investigations maybe a few more certainties. Although it's clear that outing himself would result in a kill, the odds would still be far better than if he kept quiet.

Dimaba, who was your N1 investigation?

I also think the

times

they were 'role-blocked' are curiously convenient. Look. Crimmy claims to be roleblocked night 2 when his target dies. He protected the experienced guy(the proper move for doc), but was roleblocked. How tragic.

N1 I attempted to investigate Crimmy.

As for the 'curiously convenient' times we were roleblocked... If Crimmy had protected someone else, or if you two had killed somebody else, Crimmy wouldn't have known there was a roleblocker. There's nothing curiously convenient about it, it's just the only way he could know there is a roleblocker.

Dimaba is

still

scum lurking.

I haven't replied for.. what... 24 hours? I have a life. Lurking = constantly reading the thread but not replying. I don't read the thread all the time, but I do reply whenever I'm around.


On Crimmy...

The fact that you are attacking me for showing the obvious danger is extremely scummy.

I'll give you that it isn't an intensely smart way to deal with it, but I think we've established throughout this game that Crimmy tends to respond a little too emotionally to opposing opinions and suspicions... In that light, it isn't inconsistent with his playing style and is just as likely that he is a pro-town who thinks the SE is presenting this knowledge to conveniently steer the town in the wrong direction or something like that. (That isn't an accusation I hold myself, btw. It's a valid point that you raised and I'm sure you would also have raised it had you been pro-town.)

Your claims are fundamentally inaccurate and misleading. Even newbie town don't make those kind of mistakes.

newbie scum then, I imagine?

This is one of the most fundamental and widely accepted scum tells of this game.

Says who? Do we have any other source to trust for that, other than your experience?

Michel, our confirmed town IC said, as did I that that was a bad idea. I would also like all of you to notice that our confirmed town IC agreed with me solidly for the first two days. I think that gives me some major town points here.

With you on what? On game tactics? So you proposed the same strategies he did... Anyone with more experience than me would know which strategy is used when. On votes? If I recall correctly, you voted for Crimmy on day 1 before unvoting when McGriddle became the top suspect. You then voted Crimmy on day 2, calling him 'suspicious from yesterday' while calling CSL 'genuine' and not picking up on his responsibility in the hammer (post 164) (which Michel never agreed with) before switching to CSL after everyone became suspicious of his hammer-action. At that point you suddenly became very aggressive towards him and forgot all about Crimmy. You voted for CSL in post 218, way after Michel did. He didn't magically agree with you all the time, you just changed your vote to match his.
Or on behaviour in the game? You wanted jackabomb to get a replacement when he announced that he might be inactive for a short while, something Michel spoke explicitly against (post 18). And you criticised Michel for 'not presenting enough analysing, which wasn't hard for him to dispute (posts 188 and 190).

There's also evidence of mutual protection between jackabomb and foilist after the McGriddle hammer.
Foilist:


Jackabomb (post 203):

I beleive that foilist was the only one not aware of the current situation at the time of the hammer.

...which has been proven wrong by Michel and Crimmy in posts 205 and 206.

Foilist (196):

If it comes down to these two, I'd vote CSL. Jackabonb asked if he should hammer, and CSL told him to, which means that Jackabomb could more likely be easily led town/newbie

who did what the SE told him to.

We can't say he's scummy for hammering, when he didn't know that that was the wrong thing to do, and then the SE told him it was the right decision. So basically I see it that CSL may as well have hammered. (Little exaggerated, but I do feel like he bears most of the responsibility).

An obvious attempt to clear jackabomb of the hammer and at the same time shift blame onto CSL.

@ Crimmy: don't go lurking now. Kyiv's vote is the only one that matters. We have to convince Kyiv together that we are town players and we can't do that if you become emotional and run away.

vote: foilist13

[dimaba]

EBWOP: My quotes got screwed up there...

where I said:

Your claims are fundamentally inaccurate and misleading. Even newbie town don't make those kind of mistakes.

newbie scum then, I imagine?

This is one of the most fundamental and widely accepted scum tells of this game.

Says who? Do we have any other source to trust for that, other than your experience?

It should've said:

Your claims are fundamentally inaccurate and misleading. Even newbie town don't make those kind of mistakes.

Neither would newbie scum then, I imagine.

This is one of the most fundamental and widely accepted scum tells of this game.

Says who? Do we have any other source to trust for that, other than your experience?

[Kyiv]

1) Crimmy. His doc claim was not the right town move, as he just lost the chance to pull us out of lylo by protecting accurately and lynching scum today. No good town player would even consider doing that, but he is a newbie. That only goes so far though, and for now he occupies the number one place on my scum list.

This is what seals the nail in the coffin. It really doesn't matter if doc comes out in Lylo or not. In fact, I would almost say they need to come out (Especially if they were roleblocked in this setup) in Lylo because we need to lynch correctly -that- day, or else the game is over. It never hurts to come out as a doc to try and confirm you're town to keep the town from being distracted.

The fact that you question this proves you didn't read the thread carefully, as you would have know I said that.

This is one of the most fundamental and widely accepted scum tells of this game.

The scum do not read the thread as carefully as town, and never as carefully as the town in lylo. The reason for this is that scum do not have to find who the scum is. They already know. They only have to find ways to get other people lynched.

While definitely true, in a newbie game it's a bit of a toss-up. Newbies playing as scum tend to get nervous and might read and triple read the thread, which might lead to unintentional lurking. Town newbies become lost and will sometimes simply give up trying to read the gargantuan posts (like this one). Of course, this is generalizing, but in newbie games this is a null tell at worst.

@Kyiv - Can you imagine for a second, that the scum just happened to be right on not one, but both of their role blocks? That is the most convenient thing I have ever seen in my career on this game. Let's look at the odds of this shall we. There were no PR tells in this game, other than general playstyle, but everyone plays PR's differently.

If town can lynch the two scum on consecutive days, there should be no reason scum could not roleblock on consecutive days. Sure, the odds are a little different, but it's still there.

That means that D1 we had a 2/9 chance of lynching a PR, and D2 a 2/7 chance. Those are reasonable odds, however, let's look at the odds of the scum getting two successful roleblocks on both PRs. D1 that's a 1/7 chance of getting the cop, and D2 that's a 1/5 chance of getting the cop. However,

the odds of getting both roleblocks right are 35 to 1.

I hope that makes you think twice about their claim.

Wouldn't this actually be 1/3 (2/6) of roleblocking cop

or

a doc, and then (You don't count the scumteam, there's a lynch D1, and you don't count the scumkill), and then 1/4 D2 for roleblocking the other power role? I'm no mathematician, so I have no idea how to find the odds of both of these happening total, but I think it's better than the ones you and Jack have posted.

1) He attacked Jackabomb and CSL, one of whom we know is town. I fail to see how this makes him pro-town, as it would be an equally logical move as scum.

It is not his action, but the content of his post. The way he words it, really.

2) I don't know for sure what you meant, but I'm going to assume it was his idea to wait that makes you think he's town until you tell me otherwise, k?

Partly right, but also he's looking out for a town that's getting off-track. The lynch that day had to have been CSL or Jack unless incredible new evidence came up.

I would also like all of you to notice that our confirmed town IC agreed with me solidly for the first two days. I think that gives me some major town points here.

What an odd thing to say...

3) Again, this would be an equally logical post as scum. Crimmy knew CSL was town, and so he could have won some town points by being the one who was cautious and didn't try to get him lynched. He could easily afford that, as there was no way CSL was going to survive based on the way he played.

Again, it was not for the fact that he wanted to wait, but I liked the way he attacks Jackabomb there. Also, his frustration with "waiting" came from the very beginning of the day, so you cannot factor that CSL was about to be lynched. He was simply keeping up a policy that he agreed with, and that town defiantly lynched a townie against such policy. Although it still makes sense as scum, I'm more willing to see it as a town post.

Personally, I'm not liking the position I'm in, but the reason I waited was to make sure that the situation we're currently didn't have more to it. And I'd rather have lynched Jackabomb first, but I suppose it doesn't matter:

Vote: foilist13

[Jackabomb]

Just because you can disprove some of his arguments against crimmy doesn't mean he's scum. Also, you completely ignored the 'crimmy discussion'.

Also, listen to dimaba and crimmy's wording. It's constantly a 'we have to convince him', 'get them to buy it'. Coincidence? I think not. Scum tell? Quite probably.

[Jackabomb]

Just because you can disprove some of his arguments against crimmy doesn't mean he's scum. Also, you completely ignored the 'crimmy discussion'.

Also, listen to dimaba and crimmy's wording. It's constantly a 'we have to convince him', 'get them to buy it'. Coincidence? I think not. Scum tell? Quite probably.

[foilist13]

Jackabomb, I don't know if you've realised this by now, but we are in the same situation as crimmy and dimaba. We know who the scum are, it's crimmy and dimaba. We can therefore use those same arguments ourselves.

@kyiv - for the love of god unvote until te debate is done. If you want to sign away the town then feel free. Our votes aren't important, yours is.

I have brought up scum tells and simple math against them, and you have refiluted some of it, but there is nothing to indicate that me and jackabomb are the scum. You are under the impression that claiming a pr makes you confirmed town. I don't know if you've been paying attention to the content of te debate, but they are pr's and I'm claiming they are scum and there are no pr's, which is a hell of a lot more likely.

I did factor in the things you said into my math the first time. It's 24 to 1 vs 2 to 1. I don't understand how you aren't looking at it. Yes it

could

happen. I might win the lottery tomorrow, but I wouldn't bet my lylo lynch on.

If you disagree with the way I would play doc on lylo, then there isn't anything I can do about that. That is a game theory debate, but personally I think getting you to 3 town 1 scum from lylo would be a good move, in spite of the risk. A pr claim does not a townie make.

[Crimmy]

@kyiv - for the love of god unvote until te debate is done. If you want to sign away the town then feel free. Our votes aren't important, yours is.

What, now you want us to go slow again?

Decide yourself, foilist.
Now, foilist has been very much active in the game, and his posts are make-believes of logic, but right now, it's not logic.

Explain to me, foilist, how can it be that voting you is less risky than voting me?
As far as I can tell, since none of us trusts the other one, and thus, both of us believe the other is scum.

I'm pretty sure I'm not scum, but that's an invalid argument, because only I can tell that for sure, right? So why is it that you're using that as your defense? I made a claim, but I'm trying to work more by myself, not using my claim to avoid getting lynched.

Getting back to my 2nd question.
None of us trusts the other. None of us believes in the other.
Both of us are trying to convince the town to vote for the other.

So how can it be that the odds of me being a PR are lesser than the odds of you being a scum? How can it be that the odds of me being town are lesser than than the odds of you being scum?

BOTH numbers are exactly the same, so don't try that game.

Now, as far as I can tell, you're ordering kyiv to retire the vote against you. Why? He has all the rights to vote for you, just like he has the same amount of rights to vote me, or anybody else.

Explain to me why is it that both dimaba and myself have refrained from voting against you. Got the answer?
Yeah, it would look scummy as hell.

You're asking kyiv to vote me. Why?
So when that happens, Jack comes to the rescue with his all-powerful hammer, and that's the end of the game.

Asking kyiv to unvote, and wait till the discussion is over is passive gaming.

Asking kyiv to vote me, and get me lynched is fast-play.

Now, why is it that you can't decide yourself? When in danger, you go "Hey guys, let's go easy, and slow".

When action takes it's turn against somebody else that's not you, nor Jack, you go" Get that sunovabish!".

As far as I can tell, that's very suspicious.