Open 177 (Monks and Masons) - Game Over.

ElectricBadger · Post Post #1125 (ISO) » Tue Dec 22, 2009 11:43 am

The I'm a little teapot short and...damn, I'm short...

Vote Count

Farside22 - Nikanor, SaintKerrigan, Benmage
Nikanor - Farside22, ElectricBadger

Not Voting: Hewitt

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Lots of love
Haylxxx

It makes me think you'd better be mafia who bussed amazingly well or you're going to look really stupid for trash talking right now.

Benmage · Post Post #1126 (ISO) » Tue Dec 22, 2009 11:47 am

ElectricBadger wrote:It makes me think you'd better be mafia who bussed amazingly well or you're going to look really stupid for trash talking right now.

I'll bite my lip and run into my corner with my tail tucked between my legs for being terrible at mafia if neither you nor far are scum.

The only way Nik/SK are is if the timeless scum tell of scum being the least-contributors/lurkers rings true. But god do i hope thats not the case here.

Nikanor · Post Post #1127 (ISO) » Tue Dec 22, 2009 7:44 pm

farside wrote:To find town you need to figure out scum.

This is wrong. But that's just opinion, and not worth arguing. I'm more concerned by the following:

farside wrote:What in that post shows anything remotely showing why (except me or scien) you thought a person was scum or town? Didn't you have Ben as town in that post (looks,,,yup)

I did put reasons for why I thought people were town/scum. The fact that I was wrong about Benmage being town has nothing to do with how scummy I am, unless you want to argue that I'm a werewolf. Is that where you're trying to go with this, or are you just throwing things out to try to question the validity of all my arguments?

farside wrote:saving this to answer later

Why not now? (Reads the next two pages) Why have you still not answered?

farside wrote:Because I'm looking for scum partners and I don't see anyone else that is doing that.

How does this have anything at all to do with my question?

farside wrote:No Oddin found it a cheap shot. What's your second point there? Can you show where Oddin was trying to vote out the mason. As far as I found in a brief moment was he voted for RBT in the end.

ODDin can say he found it a cheap shot, but that doesn't mean I believe that as his actual motivation for doing things. My second point is that at the time, ODDin was voting for hewitt. And this is day two we're talking about; nobody voted RBT at that time.

Also, where the frack is hewitt?

Nikanor · Post Post #1128 (ISO) » Tue Dec 22, 2009 7:54 pm

farside wrote:And have the wolf kill the confirmed townie!
I'm so glad you think I'm really that gullible.

You're bullshitting here. Why would any scum kill a confirmed townie? You know that the scum will be best off aiming for the opposing team.

Benmage · Post Post #1129 (ISO) » Tue Dec 22, 2009 7:57 pm

Nikanor wrote:
farside wrote:And have the wolf kill the confirmed townie!
I'm so glad you think I'm really that gullible.
You're bullshitting here. Why would any scum kill a confirmed townie? You know that the scum will be best off aiming for the opposing team.

Far squirming is comical.

@MOD

Whats the story on Hew, Hayl...games at a standpoint without him. I tried convincing the mafiascum to bus, but they won't budge.

Haylen · Post Post #1130 (ISO) » Wed Dec 23, 2009 3:16 am

Sorry about all the replacements and prods guys

Hewitt has until tomorrow to reply to my prod, he has yet to pick it up.

*hugs everyone*

farside22 · Post Post #1131 (ISO) » Wed Dec 23, 2009 3:33 am

Nikanor wrote:
farside wrote:And have the wolf kill the confirmed townie!
I'm so glad you think I'm really that gullible.
You're bullshitting here. Why would any scum kill a confirmed townie? You know that the scum will be best off aiming for the opposing team.

if the town lynches a mafia today why on earth would they try to kill the opposite alignment?

farside22 · Post Post #1132 (ISO) » Wed Dec 23, 2009 3:34 am

Benmage wrote:
Nikanor wrote:
farside wrote:And have the wolf kill the confirmed townie!
I'm so glad you think I'm really that gullible.
You're bullshitting here. Why would any scum kill a confirmed townie? You know that the scum will be best off aiming for the opposing team.
Far squirming is comical.

@MOD
Whats the story on Hew, Hayl...games at a standpoint without him. I tried convincing the mafiascum to bus, but they won't budge.

I'm not mafia. They (sk/nik) are already on my wagon along with the wolf (ben)

SaintKerrigan · Post Post #1133 (ISO) » Wed Dec 23, 2009 3:36 am

No worries, Haylen. You've been doing a good job with handling all the replacements and such. *hugs back*

I must say, Farside is looking more and more ridiculous with nearly every post she makes. I mean, c'mon, unless the wolf is lynched today (and that is HIGHLY unlikely) there's absolutely no reason for the mafia or the werewolf to go after a townie, confirmed or not, while the other faction is still alive.

@ EB: Why are you assuming that the mafiascum aren't bussing someone at this point?

Need moar posting from Hewitt.

SaintKerrigan · Post Post #1134 (ISO) » Wed Dec 23, 2009 3:37 am

farside22 wrote:
Nikanor wrote:
farside wrote:And have the wolf kill the confirmed townie!
I'm so glad you think I'm really that gullible.
You're bullshitting here. Why would any scum kill a confirmed townie? You know that the scum will be best off aiming for the opposing team.
if the town lynches a mafia today why on earth would they try to kill the opposite alignment?

Because if they don't, they can't win! But of course you know that.

ElectricBadger · Post Post #1135 (ISO) » Wed Dec 23, 2009 5:23 am

SaintKerrigan wrote:@ EB: Why are you assuming that the mafiascum aren't bussing someone at this point?

It's possible I'm wrong; but with Hew gone it's impossible to lynch mafia without their assistance - so it seems like a terrible time to bus.

farside22 · Post Post #1136 (ISO) » Wed Dec 23, 2009 5:33 am

SaintKerrigan wrote:
farside22 wrote:
Nikanor wrote:
farside wrote:And have the wolf kill the confirmed townie!
I'm so glad you think I'm really that gullible.
You're bullshitting here. Why would any scum kill a confirmed townie? You know that the scum will be best off aiming for the opposing team.
if the town lynches a mafia today why on earth would they try to kill the opposite alignment?
Because if they don't, they can't win! But of course you know that.

All the scenario's and possible outcomes:

This is all based on my lynch.

I'm town that leaves a possible 2 mafia (I'm sticking with this being 2 mafia)

The wolf needs to kill mafia to have a shot tonight or he loses.

the mafia on the other hand all they need is to avoid being killed tonight and they win.

Questions?

SaintKerrigan · Post Post #1137 (ISO) » Wed Dec 23, 2009 5:40 am

@ Farside: You're leaving out the part where if wolf kills mafia and mafia doesn't kill wolf, then it brings up a 1-mafia, 1-wolf, 1-townie endgame. Not only does the mafia have to determine who the wolf is at that point to win, and vice versa, but even if the two scum figure each other out and vote each other, the townie is left to decide which scum team wins.

ElectricBadger · Post Post #1138 (ISO) » Wed Dec 23, 2009 5:51 am

Actually, in a 1-1-1 I think town would be better off voting No Lynch and forcing the scum to kill each other off while hoping their opposites mis-target.

Farside, that didn't answer your scenario...definitely seeing some logical fallacies in there.

SaintKerrigan · Post Post #1139 (ISO) » Wed Dec 23, 2009 6:03 am

EB: You're right, I forgot that a no-lynch could be forced by town. However, it doesn't change the fact that a 1v1v1 is not optimal for scum on either side to be in. Thus, it makes more sense for both scum teams to try and kill each other overnight than for one of them to try and hit a townie.

farside22 · Post Post #1140 (ISO) » Wed Dec 23, 2009 6:30 am

ElectricBadger wrote:Actually, in a 1-1-1 I think town would be better off voting No Lynch and forcing the scum to kill each other off while hoping their opposites mis-target.

Farside, that didn't answer your scenario...definitely seeing some logical fallacies in there.

How did it not? You just pointed out the one point in which the town can win.

All the mafia need to do is avoid a lynch today. (aka lynch me) and avoid being killed and they win.
How does that not work?

farside22 · Post Post #1141 (ISO) » Wed Dec 23, 2009 6:31 am

SaintKerrigan wrote:EB: You're right, I forgot that a no-lynch could be forced by town. However, it doesn't change the fact that a 1v1v1 is not optimal for scum on either side to be in. Thus, it makes more sense for both scum teams to try and kill each other overnight than for one of them to try and hit a townie.

But then scum needs to worry about survivor a lynch on this day. What is the better chance of winning for scum? Ask yourself that then come back to me.

SaintKerrigan · Post Post #1142 (ISO) » Wed Dec 23, 2009 6:44 am

Farside22 wrote:All the mafia need to do is avoid a lynch today. (aka lynch me) and avoid being killed and they win.
How does that not work?

Well, duh! Of course the mafia wins if they avoid a lynch today and one of them doesn't die overnight. But how likely is either one of those scenarios going to be?

Farside22 wrote:But then scum needs to worry about survivor a lynch on this day. What is the better chance of winning for scum? Ask yourself that then come back to me.

Scum is going to try and survive a lynch regardless of what day it is. And obviously the best possible scenario for mafia-scum is for them to lynch someone other than themselves and then survive the night. But the mafia has no control over who the wolf is going to kill. If the mafia kills a townie and the wolf kills a mafia, then the 1v1v1 scenario shows up, which is detrimental to both scum. Thus, the best chance the mafia has is to try and kill the wolf overnight, so in the event that the wolf kills a mafioso, at least the surviving mafia have a 1v2 against town, not a 1v1v1 against a town and a wolf.

Benmage · Post Post #1143 (ISO) » Wed Dec 23, 2009 6:52 am

farside22 wrote:
Nikanor wrote:
farside wrote:And have the wolf kill the confirmed townie!
I'm so glad you think I'm really that gullible.
You're bullshitting here. Why would any scum kill a confirmed townie? You know that the scum will be best off aiming for the opposing team.
if the town lynches a mafia today why on earth would they try to kill the opposite alignment?

Why would a mafia try and kill an opposing alignment?? So you think the mafia would kill the monk??Because a second ago you said wolf, but lets say you got confused for a second and meant wolf or whatever.

With 2 Deaths occurring tonight, 3 people will enter tomorrow. Either 3 town, if we lynch a mafia and both the mafia and the wolf nk each other, or 2 town and 1 of either the wolf or the mafia if either side misses the opposing team, OR 1-1-1 if both sides simply hit town. Which is what a prisoner dilemma, or i guess no lynch into night hope they NK each other off...Still the scenario either scum wants to walk into (assuming we lynch mafia today) Is the 2-1, not the 1-1-1... say 1 team goes for the "confirmed townie" and the other teams like "ahaha idiot" and it becomes 0-2-1...lol.

ElectricBadger · Post Post #1144 (ISO) » Wed Dec 23, 2009 7:14 am

farside22 wrote:How did it not? You just pointed out the one point in which the town can win.

The question was why mafia would target a proven townie.

I see it as remotely possible - if they feared entering a prisoner dilemma, then having a proven townie is bad.

Though not really seeing all this speculation as overly useful. Having a proven townie=good. Making the wolf give us one=better. It's not so complicated as it's being made out to be.

farside22 · Post Post #1145 (ISO) » Wed Dec 23, 2009 7:31 am

Well, duh! Of course the mafia wins if they avoid a lynch today and one of them doesn't die overnight. But how likely is either one of those scenarios going to be?

All you (oh I mean the mafia) need to do is mislead the wolf. I thought Ben was doing that but now I just think wolf since SK's post on who is scum was was so anti-town I would set him aside after the game to explain how to do a better scum list if he was town.

As for the second part:
In my view either Ben or hewitt is wolf. So the mafia has a 50/50 shot of getting it right vs the wolf who lynching me
If hewitt he needs to decide between Ben/Nik or SK/EB. Or if scum is both Ben and Nik then hewitt will kill a mafia no matter what (I don't see SK not being mafia at this point though)
If the wolf is ben he knows that after my lynch that Nik is scum and has a shot of winning taking him out.

So sure the mafia could do for the 50/50 shot but 10 to 1 says they take out 1 (no I'm not helping the scum on this one) over the other hoping that they don't get killed and win.

SaintKerrigan · Post Post #1146 (ISO) » Wed Dec 23, 2009 7:37 am

How is my scumlist anti-town?

Benmage · Post Post #1147 (ISO) » Wed Dec 23, 2009 7:42 am

EB, will you just bus farside already...what do you thinks gonna happen when hew comes back...

farside22 · Post Post #1148 (ISO) » Wed Dec 23, 2009 7:53 am

SaintKerrigan wrote:How is my scumlist anti-town?

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewpoint.php?p=2021301

You know there is 2 to 3 scum in the game and the only person you didn't say neutral to was me right?

Your reading is all neutral with a leaning scum on Ben.

@Ben: I'm looking forward to seeing you eat your words when I flip town.
Of course you're the wolf so painting anyone as scum is better then actually looking at the game as a whole.

Benmage · Post Post #1149 (ISO) » Wed Dec 23, 2009 7:57 am

Than you're terrible at this game Farside..hopefully, you aren't.

Why do you keep saying 2-3 mafia???How dumb of a statement is that....You don't have any mental illness, do you? I don't want to be rude if thats the case....This is an open setup. There are 2 mafia scum and 2 wolf scum. The 1-2 is whether or not they are mafiamonk scum and wolfmason scum or not....Geeeeeeezzzzzzzzzz