Mini 884 - Last Man Standing (Over)

[Cobalt]

Let's hear from PCE first.

[pwnz]

Holy cow, I thought we had this one won reading through.. I don't know what else to say other than I know I played a bad game but I'm just a drunk night tracker. *hic

[PorkchopExpress]

I'm just a vanilla townie.

I really don't know much about third party roles (I've played one off-site game with a Serial Killer before) so I'm pretty much running off whatever the Wiki is telling me. Could the Sheriff be a Traitor? That would fit the flavour.

How common is an investigation immune SK?

[Cobalt]

Has to be PCE or Amished.
I'm inclined to lynch Amished, just based on the fact that VPB has innocent on PCE. If it's one of you, you might as well concede. You don't really have a chance to win at this point.

[Amished]

Like I said, lynch me if you lynch PCE tomorrow. Honestly I don't see a way that anybody other than town can win.

[VP Baltar]

I need to look at some things before I come to my decision. I'm ruling pwnz out as a possibility. I'm not sure which of the other three it could be. I could see a lyncher either being one of our claimed vanillas or even the healer (having the ability to heal your needed lynch target would be very beneficial indeed).

We could also have an SK on our hands who just happened to target the same person as the scum last night. If that's the case, my guess is that it's Amished since Sotty was on him yesterday.

[VP Baltar]

And happy scumday, Amished! If I ever needed to raise a barn, you'd be the first person I call.

[Amished]

Good, I'm great with those barns!

Anyways; I know that Sotty didn't have anything on me that I couldn't defend against. I didn't catch a PR tell or I wouldn't have gone after her yesterday during the day either. The only person I'm really worried about is you, VP. You would've been my target; and if I wanted to try to play off as a vig if it came to claiming; you would've kept my claim believable with my suspicion of you pretty much throughout the game.

As an aside, I think one of the reasons (probably the main reason, but I didn't really catch on at the time) I thought Sotty was suspicious was because she kinda chainsaw'd for you on me. That reinforces the connection between you two (for me); and you're completely off the table.

I still think we need to go to night since we have a claimed tracker, claimed healer/doc/thing and a claimed Cop. If we can't get information out of that and possibly get a WIFOM heal (really a 50/50 shot, well, 33% if Cobalt can self heal; but can work if it's pwnz that's guilty).

You can't deny that investigation immune (and possibly NK immune) wouldn't give an SK a decent shot to win. Obviously PCE is the best lynch from my perspective but I realize I haven't played the best this game (outside my initial read post where I got 2/3 cowboys) so if you need to lynch me to assuage your suspicions, I get that.

[VP Baltar]

But if you're third party, you're hunting of the cowboys would be legit.

I'm debating with myself if a no lynch is the best action at this juncture. We're well ahead in the count and a night of pwnz and I working our magic could be very beneficial. Pwnz has limited choices to track and I can investigate. If there is a kill (on me presumably) and pwnz tracks someone who doesn't target me, that person is confirmed innocent.

That would leave pwnz and said target with the last scum being among two of PCE, Amished, Cobalt. Should be an easy victory.

If we no lynch and there is no kill tonight, it will be likely that we are dealing with a lyncher. I'll have my investigation, but I don't know if I would get anything on a third party or not. In the case of a no kill situation over night, I think the best plan tomorrow would be to have a shoot 'em up. Amished and PCE would shoot each other. If we didn't win then, I'd shoot one of pwnz and Cobalt (probably Cobalt). If we still haven't won then (ie pwnz is lyncher and I'm his target), we go to night again so I can get another bullet and shoot pwnz ftw.

Flaws, questions, comments with this plan?

[Amished]

Yeah, and I'd be more concerned with my own survival. As long as I win I don't care if I'm lynched right now after our success getting cowboys. Also, if you think that my after ben gave up reactions weren't genuine as I thought the game was over, there's not much I can do about that.

Question: Why'd you two decide to investigate PCE last night?

I don't see how we can't win; no-lynch or lynch. A lynch reduces targets for overnight for our PR's, allowing them a better chance of success/reduces possibilities to fake a result. VP, you and I are the two really trying to coordinate this. This makes me worried, but I have no idea why our claimed PR's would have any reason to be on their own.

Also, with Ben's end of game speech; and pwnz having the result on Jazz; we know he's who he claims he is. Cobalt can heal, and what's the point of a SK doctor? Hannibal Lecter wasn't around at that time He can be wounded, which makes him not un-nkable; which I'd expect as well. The Sotty/VP connection is too strong; so it has to be PCE from my POV. I know that you have an investigation innocent on him, but we don't know if you were/are insane or if he's investigation immune.

[VP Baltar]

Question: Why'd you two decide to investigate PCE last night?

Sotty and I both got an investigation actually. She tried to investigate you and I went after PCE.

PCE was my choice because his play here has been very very different from my town meta of him and I couldn't tell if that was because he was scum or was just having a bad game, which we are all prone to from time to time.

And yeah, I still don't know what my sanity is, so I'm not putting too much stock in my investigation at the moment. Sotty and I were hoping to figure out each others' sanities after N2...but that plan is down the tubes now.

The only reason i'm suggesting a no lynch is because if the third party is a lyncher, it would essentially stop their chances of winning...which sucks for them, but I've lost two games this week and don't have much pity in that regard.

I need to look back at your third party talk around d3x, Amished. There was something weird in there I want to look at.

[Amished]

Go for it. Turned out he was just scum and didn't want suspicion on himself, but whatever. Looked more self-preservation than being proactive knowing that he had backup; but obviously not every scum plays the same way.

[Amished]

Both got an investigation? Yeah, there has to be something up with your results. Either Naive, Insane, something. Two cops, masoned, with doc heals? With the flavor, the game probably wasn't going to go too long to be able to test out your sanity either.

[pwnz]

Well I'm all for using VP's plan unless someone else has a better one. *hic

vote: no lynch

[Amished]

I think we should still narrow down the suspects; even if it's me. I realize I'm a distraction for two people I view to be pro-town (now) due to the random lyncher speculation. I know if I'm tracked or investigated, it's a wasted one. I would prefer to lynch PCE right here and now and probably win the game due to that; but if we can narrow down the focus of our claimed PR's; we have more chance to hit scum. Then if you decide to NL tomorrow (without shooting), you're still in a position to not worry about a single NK (4 people alive, NL, a NK is still only 3).

So I'm lobbying for either PCE (obviously, to win the game AFAICT) or me (to reduce suspects for the rest of you as PRs).

.... I just thought of something. If pwnz tracks VP, VP investigates Cobalt, and Cobalt heals pwnz; you can all pretty much confirm each other. Oh shit, unless PCE kills Cobalt to frame VP. Hrmph. If that's the case, then VP and PCE can shoot each other, no healer, both would die and pwnz (confirmed tracker) lives and wins for the town?

Unless there's something I'm missing?

[Cobalt]

I don't like the idea of a no-lynch. I think that's only viable if the 3rd party is a lyncher, and honestly, I can't see a competent mod giving a lyncher a factional win condition. SK is more likely, in which case we just lynch Amished and PCE for the win. As an outside shot, it could be pwnz, and he just got lucky with Jazz killing Sotty, but that seems pretty farfetched. I can't see it as VPB, and obviously it's not me.
re: using nightactions to confirm each other- we'd only confirm that we have those powers. And we already know I'm the doc and we can be pretty sure pwnz is the tracker. So let's lynch Amished, then we'll have pwnz track PCE while VPB investigates pwnz, leaving the killer and me in a WIFOM duel of who to protect/kill.

[Amished]

The *only* problem with my plan that I see is if you don't trust pwnz. With the Jazz track; that's pretty solid IMO. As I think he's the most confirmable to really be pro-town with what he's claimed, that's ideal.

I'm lynched, so that takes me out of it (or PCE is lynched which obviously is better from my own POV, and then you can switch me for PCE later).

I'm gonna go through each scenario, and see that we do have this wrapped up (please, if you see holes, poke them so we know. I'm also disregarding pwnz-scum)

If VP scum: pwnz tracks him and is protected by cobalt. pwnz sees that vp targets somebody and if the targetee dies, vp gets shot by the other guy (PCE/Me). If pwnz sees that VP doesn't target anybody; if nobody dies then VP isn't pro-town as he didn't use his claimed power which he would if he were pro-town.

If Cobalt scum: VP gets (hopefully) a different result than from PCE and we can have whoever's left shoot cobalt. VP being naive is the problem with this. If cobalt kills VP, we're down to only 1 gun left (pwnz doesn't have one? right?) which is in PCE's hands. He can then shoot Cobalt and win for the town. (potential problem:) If PCE is scum and shoots VP overnight, then pwnz is left with the 50% chance. PCE won't shoot either of them as he'd be outed as scum and they'd have the 2 person majority to lynch him while one is wounded (if PCE-scum has a strong shot; this is a problem. Another reason to leave me alive rather than PCE as I have a confirmed weak shot while PCE only followed up my shot on Jazz which has so far only immediately killed them by being shot a 2nd time.)

If PCE scum: pwnz is still alive, knows that he's town; VP is town (if not killed) and then goes for the lynch of PCE. The obvious target for all of this is VP dying; and I'm trying to work through how to us still win if he's NK'd which he's sure to be as town.

Hmm, what happens if pwnz just tracks VP to make sure; VP can investigate whoever, and Cobalt gets into wifom with PCE about who to kill?

One more question/point: If we lynch PCE; that helps to confirm VP's status. We know he has an innocent on PCE. If PCE is inv. immune scum; then we've lynched scum and win. If PCE is town; we've narrowed it down to VP being naive or having true results. Then we can go into some sort of cohesive night plan. With this many PR's left; we have to be able to break this end game without taking chance into it.

[VP Baltar]

You make a good point about the lyncher probably not being factional, Cobalt. I'm probably down for lynching Amished today I guess.

[Amished]

tl; dr version:

Lynching PCE solves a lot of problems, but we need a good plan for tonight if we have a fake-claiming PR (which is nigh-impossible for pwnz, IMO).

[Amished]

... if Lyncher isn't factional, why are you on me for a top pick lynch? I thought that was your main complaint against me?

[Cobalt]

Right now I think I'd actually rather lynch PCE. Amished makes a good point, especially with weak shot vs strong shot.
Also, we already established that I can't daykill when I tried the fake-kill on you, Amished. Unless you think there's an SK who can heal, protect at night, and has no gun, I can't be scum.

[Vi]

Vote Count:

No Lynch (L-2) ~ pwnz

Not Voting:

PorkchopExpress, VP Baltar, Amished, Cobalt,

pwnz

[size=0]Ami 0 | Cobalt 0 | PExpress 0 | pwnz 0 | VPB 0[/size]

--With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.
--Deadline is Saturday, January 2 2010.

[Cobalt]

vote porkchopexpress

[Vi]

Vote Count:

No Lynch (L-2) ~ pwnz

PorkchopExpress (L-2) ~ Cobalt

Not Voting:

PorkchopExpress, VP Baltar, Amished,

Cobalt

[size=0]Ami 0 | Cobalt -1 | PExpress 0 | pwnz 0 | VPB 0[/size]

-I will try to keep up with this thread while I am V/LA. If that's not possible, zoraster has agreed to back me up. (Thank him!)

--With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.
--Deadline is Saturday, January 2 2010.

---Yes, that is a backup to a backup to a backup. I'm sorry too.

[pwnz]

I actually really liked Amished's post 1091 and would be willing to lynch PCE. *hic