Big Brother Mafia - Town wins!

[Kast]

Hi guys, catching up...another post to follow this one.

[PaltryExcuse]

Actually Snow, about Llama, you said you were unable to elaborate before. What is it about Llama that you find scummy?

[Kast]

I think the votes made after Sironigous (which I consider to be in this twilight) have been more than informative. I think that it's quite possible that Paltry felt more comfortable to vote snow bunny at this point in time knowing that Sly is dead. Had Paltry voted before hand, I think all signs were pointing to a Sly vote.

All the votes after Sly was already lynched aren't very meaningful. I agree it seemed strongly as though PE would have voted Sly if Sironigous didn't hammer. However, once the hammer hit, the targets of remaining votes are meaningless in terms of game mechanics, and are really just for show.

About Sironigous suddenly hammering; the two most likely explanations I see are:
-Town finishing off obv-scum
-Producer scum sealing the deal on a non-teammate
Either one is plausible. It will be good to keep an eye on whether Sironigous acts similarly in future lynches.

Possible distancing.

Everyone should have an idea of their top suspects and should want those suspects lynched. This post is pretty anti-town.

Interesting post. Sly had actually said repeatedly that saber was his top choice and a definite evictee, until the post where he finally suggested KMD and Sensfan. It would seem more natural that his failure to put saber up indicated protection of saber. I'm not sure how you draw that he was protecting zwet.

@Hewitt-
You did initially claim SB as one nomination you wouldn't mind. However, this disappeared from your later posts until you became HoH.
You agreed with Crazy on AM as replacement nomination after Veto.
You later modify your list with AM third after Saber and Zwets (SB is gone from this list)
SB returns as your third choice after saber and Zwet only after the replacement nominee has already been picked.

Again, the second choice is a minor point, given your claimed PoV at the time

I would expect and hope SlySly would be evicted however if for some reason public opinion changed and SlySly was saved I would not mind any of those three being evicted.

Although I'll note now that you've apparently changed your position in claiming you were more suspicious of SB than Sly.

However, I did mistakenly think that some of your posts about saber being extremely anti-town and your top pick after Sly were about AM. In any event, your choice of SB was odd as SB was clearly NOT your top pick previously (how you feel about SB now does not effect how you felt about SB previously, that is fallacious).

A huge part of scumhunting IS looking for potential scumteam-tells. Potential pairings that indicate players may be on the same team are important to point out, especially if the town appears to be missing them.

@KMD-

-Paltry came out of the gate with a "town read" on Sly and voted him for HoH BEFORE he was comfortable calling anyone scum. As soon as Sly took heat, he went after Sly himself.

It looked like PE turned against Sly as soon as Sly made his nominations. Most of the early heat on Sly came from PE.

Vote: Animorph

Animorph seems the best bet for scum and most informative lynch today.

Secondary targets aren't really that important. If I had to nominate a second, I'd probably nominate Saber(BV) based on the possible protection from Sly.

AM is obviously targetting me since I pointed out his interactions with Hewitt. He's probably also trying to force a waste of the Coup d'etat power.

I'd say the less real opinion they had, the more they should go up

This completely fails. I've shared my opinions on things, and most all were shared well before anyone else even touched on the subjects. Just because everyone else waits 2 or 3 days before engaging in discussion on things I've already shared my thoughts about, doesn't mean I never posted.

@Should aim for a particular scum team?
No. We should aim to lynch the most probable scum, regardless of which scumteam that player is on. Eliminating one team doesn't remove a night kill, so the primary factor that normally inclines town to eliminating a faction is not present. We just want to his the most likely scum. At this point, that would be animorph.

[Crazy]

Had family in town the past couple days... I'll post tomorrow.

[LlamaFluff]

@Should aim for a particular scum team?
No. We should aim to lynch the most probable scum, regardless of which scumteam that player is on. Eliminating one team doesn't remove a night kill, so the primary factor that normally inclines town to eliminating a faction is not present. We just want to his the most likely scum. At this point, that would be animorph.

Yes and no.

While any scum lynch is better then a town lynch, chenbot (hereby refered to as scum A) is better then scum B lynch for stated reasons. It makes scum A need to try and lynch scum B. Also given that there are no night kills, a scum A claim late in the game can actually be useful given that it removes a player, beyond all doubt, from being scum B. Anything can help really if we get into that situation.

You are right though that right now we should just look for who we think is scum and lynch them. A scum B lynch today would actually be more informative then most people realize at this point however.

[bv310]

I was going to say something like that. What exactly do you expect to win by lynching me? I know I'm town, and thus my flip would bring nothing good to town. One less townie, and not much info.

A Llama lynch, in the other hand, would bring more useful information, and we might as well get rid of a scum that is making a good job to look townie.

On the contrary, you flipping town would draw suspicion on everyone who bandwagoned you. I Still don't see it happening, but either way works out on the positive.

[animorpherv1]

Vote: Animorph

Animorph seems the best bet for scum and most informative lynch today.

Secondary targets aren't really that important. If I had to nominate a second, I'd probably nominate Saber(BV) based on the possible protection from Sly.

AM is obviously targetting me since I pointed out his interactions with Hewitt. He's probably also trying to force a waste of the Coup d'etat power.

I'd say the less real opinion they had, the more they should go up

This completely fails. I've shared my opinions on things, and most all were shared well before anyone else even touched on the subjects. Just because everyone else waits 2 or 3 days before engaging in discussion on things I've already shared my thoughts about, doesn't mean I never posted.

Um, I disagree. I'd rather see less opinonated people go up then ones who have expresssed thereselfes this entire game. Their going under the radar, and I don't wanna let that happen.

@ url bit: I'm just being fair. Wether you use the coup'd etat is up to you. Like I said before, I had NO IDEA you had it. So, explain to me how if I had no idea you have coup'detat, how I could strategize to make you waste coup'etat, without using probobilities.

[Kmd4390]

Nom count:

Animorph -7- Crazy, bv, Finch , Paltry, Llama, Snow, Kast
Snow -6- bv, Animorph, hewitt, Sir, pablito , Llama
Kast -2- Crazy, Animorph
Finch -2- hewitt, pablito
bv -2- Sir , Kast
Sir -2- Finch , Paltry
Llama -1- Snow

Now that everyone has chosen two noms, here are my thoughts:
I'm pretty confident that Paltry is scum. So I have two choices. The first is try to get Paltry evicted. I'm not sure who I'd put him up against though. I'd like to choose someone who I actually do suspect at least a little bit just in case that player is evicted, but I'd like it to be someone less likely to be evicted than Paltry. The only player who come to mind is Kast, who has the coup de ta. The next best option is probably Finch, who I expect would be evicted instead.

The other choice is to go with the majority opinion and nominate two players who I actually do suspect, but also don't expect to make it to endgame anyway. That would be Animorph and Snow. Both have recieved plenty of suspicion and I think it's very likely that if I don't nominate either of them, both will be evicted later anyway. Paltry, however, I think will slip away if I don't get him evicted now.

I don't want to put Paltry up against an obvtown player like Llama or Hewitt because it provides no information.

Someone who is tempting me now is Crazy. I can't shake a gut feeling I have that Crazy is scum even though his play looks pretty protown. I haven't really seen many thoughts on Crazy.

Yeah, right now I'm leaning Paltry/Crazy as my noms in hopes of evicting Paltry. I'll wait until right before deadline so we can get more discussion in first, but right now, plan on those noms.

[hewitt]

@Hewitt-
You did initially claim SB as one nomination you wouldn't mind. However, this disappeared from your later posts until you became HoH.
You agreed with Crazy on AM as replacement nomination after Veto.
You later modify your list with AM third after Saber and Zwets (SB is gone from this list)
SB returns as your third choice after saber and Zwet only after the replacement nominee has already been picked.

Again, the second choice is a minor point, given your claimed PoV at the time

I would expect and hope SlySly would be evicted however if for some reason public opinion changed and SlySly was saved I would not mind any of those three being evicted.

Although I'll note now that you've apparently changed your position in claiming you were more suspicious of SB than Sly.

However, I did mistakenly think that some of your posts about saber being extremely anti-town and your top pick after Sly were about AM. In any event, your choice of SB was odd as SB was clearly NOT your top pick previously (how you feel about SB now does not effect how you felt about SB previously, that is fallacious).

So I know you're trying to paint me as being part of a scumteam and that's fine I completely support that but none of the above makes sense. It seems like you're trying to say that Snow Bunny was not one a suspect of mine throughout the game until I nominated her...but that's clearly false so I'm really not sure what you're trying to get at.

[Kmd4390]

Animorph -7- Crazy, bv, Finch , Paltry, Llama, Snow, Kast
Snow -6- bv, Animorph, hewitt, Sir, pablito , Llama
Kast -2- Crazy, Animorph
Finch -2- hewitt, pablito
bv -2- Sir , Kast
Sir -2- Finch , Paltry
Llama -1- Snow

^Also, if I get stuck at some point, expect me to come back to this and find a scum. I'll probably find everyone's Day 1 and 2 nom choices too and do some weird version of a Vote Count analysis.

[pablito]

@Kmd - do you feel that there any players that are purposely avoiding mentioning crazy?

[Kmd4390]

Not sure.

It depends on Crazy's alignment and scum's playstyles.

I know that personally, when I'm scum, I tend to not mention my buddies as much as I should (unless I'm bussing/distancing), but it's never intentional.

[pablito]

I feel that Crazy´s position on snow bunny is still a bit vague. and obv snow´s position on crazy (and everyone else) is vague as well

[PaltryExcuse]

Yeah, right now I'm leaning Paltry/Crazy as my noms in hopes of evicting Paltry. I'll wait until right before deadline so we can get more discussion in first, but right now, plan on those noms.

So, you're basically deciding for the entire town now Kmd? I mean, you got such authority through amazing means... scum nominating you for the power.
And about your choices in nominees: How is this any different than the first nominations by Sly himself? There were two nominees: 1 with a case lined up on them, and another without one. As people noted AFTER my veto, it was most likely a clear landslide against the one who had a case on them. So yes, I firmly suspect to be evicted against Crazy. Especially since the most damning thing against him so far is your gut.
If I am lynched, and I flip town, what then?
You're not some vigilante using powers from the mod, you were installed by the only confirmed scum in the game and are unilaterally trying to decide for the town.

Overall: Put two people up who, with some semblance of evidence, you believe is scum.

[Kmd4390]

Paltry, yeah, I've got the power as HoH and I'm going to use it to the best of my ability. If you're smart, you would too in the same situation, regardless of your alignment.

Sly's noms, I didn't like because I had a town read on one and a PM from the Mod telling me that the other was town.

If you flip town, then *shrug*. I was wrong. Just like the DisCode flip. Whatever. It happens.

Yes, I'm trying to decide for the town. If someone else was HoH, I'd be pushing MY views and trying to make them listen to me. Well, I'm HoH, so that makes my job easier. If I do things right, it doesn't matter if anyone listens to me. I can work to the best of my ability to evict scum. All I need is the vote to go the way I want it to.

[bv310]

Sly's noms, I didn't like because I had a town read on one and a PM from the Mod telling me that the other was town.

Care to explain what you mean by this? How did you get mod confirmation on someone's alignment?

[animorpherv1]

That's an interesting find. If you can't tell us anything good, your probably going to get lynched.

[PaltryExcuse]

I can tell you why the mod told him. The other was Kmd. Kmd is claiming he got a town pm.

[Kmd4390]

Sly's noms, I didn't like because I had a town read on one and a PM from the Mod telling me that the other was town.

Care to explain what you mean by this? How did you get mod confirmation on someone's alignment?

Right before the game started, I got a Role PM. It told me I was town.

I can tell you why the mod told him. The other was Kmd. Kmd is claiming he got a town pm.

***DING DING DING***

[hewitt]

HAHA that whole little exchange made me laugh.

[Snow_Bunny]

On Llama, on D1 I saw a more pro-town playstyle, but now, even after Sly's slip, he goes against me and Ani (relatively easy targets), unlike other players (like Hewitt and Kmd) that try to gain more info from Sly's slip. And thus, I am not getting good vibes from that. And as I said, a Llama flip would also give us more information about connections and partners.

I missed that in the first run, and I see the points on Sly/Paltry/Finch. I must say, I can clearly see Sly-Finch, but I still don't see much on Paltry. It is true that D1 actions show some connections, but I can see that coming from townie as well. The gambit proposed that Paltry would use veto on Sly's nominations and all of that seems way to complicated for me to believe now (unless, of course, kmd turns up chenbot).

Paltry, sorry for calling you "her". My bad.

[Crazy]

And on the SlySly wagon you've got the most anti-town seeming player of the game, the player most likely to be on a scumteam with SlySly, a player who replaced a very dubious former player and is fond of slinging crap,

a player who I get a concerning overly defensive vibe from

, another player who replaced an even more dubious former player, and a player who I really don't even think reads this game before commenting.

You get an overly defensive vibe from me?

-2 Kast votes that seem to come out of nowhere

I want everyone's thoughts on Paltry ASAP

Well, my Kast vote was just a wild card... since who I really want gone is ani. And honestly, he'd have a much better chance of getting evicted over Kast than over Snow.

And think of it, Sly had to be doing SOMETHING when he nominated DisCode! Why else would he do something that made him look like total scum? I'm not sure if Kast is the answer to that question, but that question has to have SOME answer, right? What do you think?

As for Paltry, he's one of my top town-reads. I'm not sure why you think he's Sly's partner; I mean, it's not impossible, but it would require a great deal of bussing. And bussing is much less viable in games with multiple scum-teams. *shrug* From what I can see from your posts, your entire case on Paltry is based on how he changed his opinion when Sly started to take heat early in the game. For me, that's just "meh."

Question:
Would we rather evict a Chenbot today or take a shot at the other group? Or does it even matter?

I want to go for most likely to be any (or either) scum.

I'd rather evict chenbots first, since there down one already.

That's a really weird stance. You mean, if there was a confirmed Chenbot and a confirmed *whatever the other scum-team is*, you'd vote for the Chenbot?

[Crazy]

(And yes, I obviously didn't read the whole thread yet.)

[Kmd4390]

Crazy, Sly strikes me as someone who would bus. And Paltry's reaction looked like scum who knew his buddy was caught.

What are your thoughts on the possibility of being nominated against Paltry?

[animorpherv1]

@ Crazy:

Yes. I think my mentaility is still stuck in multiple scum teams -> multiple kills. That needs to change.