Mafia 104 - Revenge of the Crimson King - Game!

[xRECKONERx]

Nothing we have said is wifom

the lurking, how about that. Thats based on pure WIFOM

Are you like ten years old? Or foreign? Or do you just not understand how to make a coherent post?

[Percy]

Happy New Year, everyone. I hope this post makes up for my lack of activity.

First off, I'm a temporary replacement. Wicked will come back, so if you have questions for him you will have to wait.

Attempts by Exalt to link S4L to MM make it very unlikely that this slot is Jupiter mafia. By extension to some extent, and for other reasons besides, Merkabah, xRx, Kise and Tarhalindur are not Jupiter mafia either, imo.

Now Tarhalindur has been pushing the S4L/muh a little, but not a lot. The language he uses seems rather certain of his scuminess, and I get a distinct distancing vibe. In particular, I'm talking about the early case against S4L starting at ISO 3, and something about his ISO 16 bugs me - he had already advised the town that the game was multiscum and to be on the lookout, yet excuses muh for the flimsiest reasons. Since then, there was no discussion of the slot by Tar. I'm keenly interested in hearing his stance on muh now that there is a substantial wagon. However, his

role

claim appears rock-solid. I'm not willing to entertain the thought of a scum-town mason-jailkeeper combo just now, perhaps endgame. Man, this read is complicated. Occam tells me he's probably town, and I'm overreading him.

Really haven't liked Vaya's contribution to the game thus far. In particular, her hammer yesterday felt like a scum move, and that's the second time she's been involved in shortening days (the other being her "let's just lynch MM" rhetoric). Interesting that no-one really picked up on it until ToD's post, but I agree that Vaya needs to respond as to why Annachie was a good lynch yesterday.

zoraster - initially hesitant about muh lynch, instrumental in Annachie lynch, and now has voted muh.

@zoraster

: You said before that you thought muh was town, and at the very least not Jupiter mafia. How much of this read has changed? Why?

xRx - totally agreed with his reaction to SolemnJ in ISO 18, and I thought his aggressive pursuit of muh was/is warranted and well expressed. However, muh's coasting/no content is the main thrust of xRx's case, so I find it difficult to see why this points to "scum" rather than "newb" in some (but not all) of his posts. I acknowledge that it's totally D4 and the time for lurking is over, but this does seem like tunnelling. Overall, townvibes from xRx.

RBT - After going to so much effort to establish a link between MM and S4L, what is his first post after MM's flip? This one, which doesn't mention the slot at all. And after that?

While I understand why people want to lynch Muh, I don't see the reasoning for lynching him now, when there are more likely scum to lynch. He may be contentless, but he's doing far better than other people, such as Empking. It feels like right now people are trying to push an easy wagon. I'd rather see a lynch on Anna or Rec right now.

...which I think is a glaring inconsistency. To talk about the link for many posts, and not follow up

after one flips scum

, seems utterly bizarre. Many scumpoints.

Socrates - the most obvious case of defense of muh. Has stated that he won't vote muh until there is confirmation of a second scum team, which strikes me as odd. Votes Annachie over this post alone, and then asks people to justify why they're

not

voting Annachie here. The willingness to push the wagon but not participate in the discussion surrounding it points to scum. Also was on mislynching Cyberbob wagon. Scumread.

muh/S4L - I see this slot as important, as a lot of people have been talking about it, and it's the first wagon for today. Quite aside from that, I found S4L scummy, especially due to skittishness and stubborness I felt from the posts (but he's not possibly Jupiter mafia). muh's vote on Annachie stinks as well.

@muh

: Please give me your top three scum suspects.

Kise - I don't like the Annachie vote, as there was little discussion of the slot beforehand by Kise. Strong null read. I'd like to hear his thoughts on muh, as there has been little discussion of this slot either.

Empking/ToD - Empking is always retarded. I'm going to have to wait and see more from ToD to get a read.

@Trumpet

: To what extent are your townreads actually townreads, and not just "not-Jupiter" reads?

Merkabah - as previously stated, not Jupiter. Not a chance. Has said:

Also, all the muh hate seems like fabricated scumhunting and nothing more than a newbie beatdown. Probably scum in that group of people.

and follows it up with this:

@everyone else voting muh: How sure are you that there's two scumgroups? Cause it seems like everyone keeps forgetting that the two Jupiter Mafia that have died pushed swimmer/wysp/muh pretty hard early in the game, hard enough to probably get swimmer lynched. I'm just wondering why people are ignoring that verifiable fact on setup speculation. Anybody?

...so I'd like to ask the Merk team: what is your read on muh? How likely do

you

think it is that there are multiple scumgroups? I cannot understand how you could suggest that there is not a second killing faction, solo or otherwise. Trying to cast doubt on this rather obvious interpretation (without providing an alternative) gives you guys serious scumpoints.

Pads - The one thing that sticks out at me as

completely bizarre

has been his attitude towards the slot I'm currently squatting in. He voted wicked, said he wasn't the lynch D2, liked a Wicked lynch D3, and I really am finding it difficult following his train of thought. Seriously, look for it in ISO. So I'd really like to know what Pads really thinks of Wicked's play so far. Feels like he coasted on the Annachie wagon. Scumvibes.

Slicey/Infinis - Literally nothing.

I point-blank refuse to lynch anyone today until I can get some information on this slot, or deadline is closing

.

Raivann - Coasting, declared townread on Cyberbob then hammered, advocated a muh lynch for info, and is still pushing the lynch. Strong scumvibes.

@Raivann

: Exactly why is muh the lynch for today?

OK, that's everyone. I'm feeling the muh lynch. I'm really interested in many player's motives for pushing for or against the lynch. For both of these reasons, I'm going to keep pushing it with a

Vote: muh316

.

List of players I have some read on, in decreasing order of scumminess:

muh
Raivann
Merkabah
Socrates
RBT
Pads
xRECKONERx
Tarhalindur

List of players I have a null read on, and want to hear more from:

Vaya
zoraster
Kise
Trumpet
Slicey

I want at least one more post of substantive content from each of these slots before any lynching happens, but especially Slicey.

Future posts will be less wall-ish.

[Merkabah]

@Percy: Our *guess* (and I want to emphasize guess) is that there could be an SK out there rather than another scum group. Last night seems to support this; as there was only one kill. On the surface, it seems rather newbie since we haven't offed any killing roles since the night before when there were two kills.

So for one kill, either there was a protection or both "groups" (for brevity's sake I'll call the 2nd faction a group rather than group/sk or something) targeted RayFrost. As the ability of a jailkeeper or doc is pretty weak in a large game; it's more likely that both "groups" chose to kill RayFrost. If there was a large scumgroup out there (since 2 Jupiter are gone); they really wouldn't have to worry about RayFrost as they have the numbers to reduce the chances of being tracked. A solo person would have to worry about that, though, as they can't afford to be caught doing anything and a tracker normally goes around immunity or anything like that.

So if there's two groups, Jupiter (since they lost 2 already) would and could very well go after RayFrost to preserve their chances of winning by not getting tracked; but another scumgroup wouldn't have the same problem as they'd be fully intact and the numbers there alleviate the problem of a tracker.

So we're thinking that it was a newer player group that's left in the Jupiter Mafia (or what's left of it) and some solo player that has to cover for him or herself. The deaths seem to support it somewhat; but obviously there's a lot out there that's not known.

I thought that this (sk rather than another group) was the obvious alternative if there's no proof of a second mafia yet.

[xRECKONERx]

I don't follow - why does the lack of a second kill indicate scum group or SK?

[Percy]

@Merkabah: OK, so you think there are two non-town WCs, each with the ability to NK, but you're trying to analyse the possibility of second-solo as opposed to second-team. Am I reading you correctly?

Onto your speculation of last night - the chances of (1) both scumfactions hitting the same target and (2) exactly one scumfaction hitting the jailkeeper's target or being jailkept themselves seem to be comparable. Both scumfactions would be interested in silencing the claimed Tracker equally, I would think. So I don't understand how any of the evidence or discussion you've presented so far clears up this issue.

Not only that, but you mentioned this theory in the midst of muh discussion. Specifically, you accuse those going after muh of not considering this question. What arguments against muh

don't

count if there's an SK (muh or not) as opposed to a non-Jupiter scumfaction with more than one member (comprising muh or not)? In other words, exactly how does discussing this setup question alleviate the suspicion on muh?

[Percy]

EBWOP: Also,

I'd like to ask the Merk team: what is your read on muh?

[muh316]

Hi guys.

First things first: Regarding muh, here is a shining example of his town play, which was absolutely horrible. Merk's point about Exalt, MM and the swimmer wagon is also worth considering... muh's definitely not Jupiter Mafia. (That said, I agree with Reck that muh-town does provide at least a bit of scumhunting effort... unrevealed faction is definitely a possibility here.)

But you know that because of my successful protect town victory was sealed

[Percy]

@muh

:Why did you vote Annachie?

Who are your top three scum suspects?

[muh316]

I voted annachie because it was the best wagon going on at the time and I had everyone wanted me to place a vote somewhere

[muh316]

And also Im having null reads on most of the people

[xRECKONERx]

-.-

[Merkabah]

Obviously, we're not pleased with muh's contribution to the game, but with EMP and Slicey both being completely away from the game (and Vaya? I had to look at the player list to realize) I fail to see how muh staying here is more of a scumtell (since he's able to answer questions) than doing absolutely nothing towards helping the town (and hurting it if they're town themselves). Due to our read on the attackers and attacks (still) of those going after muh; we're not convinced that he's scum. He could step up trying to find scum; but he's better off than the 0 contribution people.

Also, if we can eliminate muh from being Jupiter (due to MMan/Exalt); he's "half" as likely to be scum.

One more thing: If muh is part of an alternate scum team; I would have expected more people to defend him along our line of defense. Or perhaps even tried to coach him a bit overnight. However, there's like one person besides us saying that they're not convinced he's scum; and his play has been consistent throughout this game.

Along that vein of thought: it's in the scumteam's best interest to try to keep themselves as strong as possible, right? If so, it doesn't help them to keep bussing their partner, or allowing their partner to be an easy lynch like it seems that muh is. Sure, he *could* be SK, but so could anybody as their scumhunting would be legit. Perhaps one of the flakers is an SK and just didn't send in a kill. There's too much unknown information to say "if you can't prove that he isn't scum, then he is".

[Socrates]

Percy, you top suspect is Muh, and your next top suspect is Raivann, who has done nothing but push the Muh wagon? Huh.

Also, I feel that it is necessary to share that only one of the NK's went down on Rayfrost. We didn't have a double up on the NK's, because if we did then there would be two kill flavors listed next to his name. So either the second killer(s) forgot to send in a kill or it got prevented.

[Percy]

Percy, you top suspect is Muh, and your next top suspect is Raivann, who has done nothing but push the Muh wagon? Huh.

Sorry, are we in multiscum, or aren't we? I've already said muh is unlikely to be Jupiter mafia, but that doesn't apply to Raivann.

@Merkabah: First paragraph is generous to muh, but I sympathise with your attitude towards lurkers. Second is fine. Third and fourth are fairly WIFOM - emphasising the unknowns in the setup and so forth to conjure up a "most likely scenario" which is just an oversimplification (imo). For example, coming out strong against a scumpartner like muh would (again, imo) be a great temptation for his buddies (if he has any). Also, I'm not suggesting that muh is guilty until proven innocent, as you imply...?

[xRECKONERx]

Percy, you top suspect is Muh, and your next top suspect is Raivann, who has done nothing but push the Muh wagon? Huh.

Also, I feel that it is necessary to share that only one of the NK's went down on Rayfrost. We didn't have a double up on the NK's, because if we did then there would be two kill flavors listed next to his name. So either the second killer(s) forgot to send in a kill or it got prevented.

Excellent point. Not asking for a doc or blocker claim, but SOMEONE out there knows a confirmed scum.

[Socrates]

Percy, you top suspect is Muh, and your next top suspect is Raivann, who has done nothing but push the Muh wagon? Huh.

Sorry, are we in multiscum, or aren't we? I've already said muh is unlikely to be Jupiter mafia, but that doesn't apply to Raivann.

@Merkabah: First paragraph is generous to muh, but I sympathise with your attitude towards lurkers. Second is fine. Third and fourth are fairly WIFOM - emphasising the unknowns in the setup and so forth to conjure up a "most likely scenario" which is just an oversimplification (imo). For example, coming out strong against a scumpartner like muh would (again, imo) be a great temptation for his buddies (if he has any). Also, I'm not suggesting that muh is guilty until proven innocent, as you imply...?

I want this "WHAT IF THERE IS TWO SCUM GROUPS!?!?!" paranoia to be put to rest for a bit.

Heres the rub. If there IS one scum group, they would be doing everything in their power to play up paranoia about the presence of a second scum group because it makes their lives MUCH easier. Essentially that can do whatever they want to various people because any normal association tells about whether or not they are town gets thrown out the window by an exclimation of "BUT THAY COULD BE UNREVEALED OH NOEZ". If there WAS two scum groups, that group would be doing everything in their power in order to downplay the existence of a second scum group, saying stuff like "We don't have confirmation of a second scum group, dammit!", because they would want their existance kept hidden for as long as possible, preferably the whole game.

The fact that everyone except Merkabah just kind of rolled with the multiscum idea is telling to me. I believe it was Glork who said earlier that a named scum faction doesn't mean anything about the presence of multiple scum groups.

Point the second: Look at our NK's. ONE of the Nk's is quite obviously looking for scum. (The brutally murdered kill flavor.) N1 was Snow_bunny, who was under intense scrutiny, N2 was DEVESTATION, who was also pretty scummy, and then N3 was Rayfrost - who I can understand someone being paranoid that he was a scum tracker or something.

BUT. The other NK flavor most certainly was not looking for scum to kill. N1 was Sensfan, N2 was Glork, probably blocked N3. (2 for 2 on power roles, I might add)

These NK's are consistant with a serial killer (or another vig) that is hunting for scum and a large scum group that is not.

I will not, I repeat, I will not lynch someone I don't think can be Jupiter mafia at this juncture.

For the sake of Irony:

We do not have confirmation of a second group, Dammit!

The alternative is that me and Merkabah are members of an unrevealed faction, and since I am not, and I think Merkabah is town, I have no alternative but to give the most epic of shrugs at the suggestion.

I will have more significant thoughts later.

[Tarhalindur]

Setup:

- I'm pretty sure "shot" is a Mafia kill at this point, given the players who have been killed by it (strong town analysts). I'd bet quite a lot that I blocked the N3 shot kill with the protect aspect of the jailkeeper, given who I protected... not sure if I should claim who that player is, though.
- The "murdered" kill, on the other hand, looks like whoever is using it was trying to set up a Vig claim until Glork died (and then took a potshot at RayFrost). That's a strong point in favor of our second killer being an SK instead of a second Mafia.
- With 2x Trackers, a Vig, and a modified Jailkeeper dead and the other modified Jailkeeper outed, we need to consider massclaim. I'm leaning towards massclaiming today myself, mainly on the grounds that I'm not sure I'll survive to tomorrow.
- If we do massclaim, I would like to be the last to claim.

Players:
- Muh COMPLETELY depends on whether the second kill comes from a second Mafia or an SK. If there's a second Mafia (a possibility supported by the revealed Mafia having a factional name), he's in it. If the second killer is an SK (which would make sense with the "brutally murdered" kill method and choice of players to kill with it - Vig is a traditional SK claim), muh is town. No middle ground here.
- Raivann is blatantly obviously Jupiter Mafia; he's been tunneled on muh beyond belief since Day 1 (in such a way that I'm pretty sure he's Mafia who's convinced muh is part of a second faction, though it's possible he just thinks muh is a guaranteed mislynch and is trying to force it to happen) and his interactions with Exalt D1 are blatantly obvious newbscum coaching.
- Riceballtail is scum (he subconsciously claimed as much in 974), though I'm not sure what kind (leaning Jupiter, since his behavior towards MM D1 looks like a bus to me). Unfortunately, the best evidence is from a currently "ongoing" game (more accurately, it's finished but the mod has gone completely absent), so you'll have to wait a bit for it.
- Vaya hasn't shown any thought or initiative of his own for the entire game. That's CLASSIC IIoA - Vaya needs to die, especially if an SK flips (IIoA is strongest in single-scum games). I'll bet he's Jupiter Mafia given his behavior, but either faction is plausible.
- Little nagging internal voice says Merkabah is SK/unrevealed faction, but the grounds for that pretty much boil down to "scum this way, no basis!" (read: I have a gut read that he's scum but have no idea why).
- Need to reread Pads (AGAIN); last read he looked town, but I have my doubts (I'm starting to suspect my nasty habit of buying scum defenses may be involved.
- Socrates needs a MUCH closer look. He's wishy-washy as hell (he's consistently couching his claims in "but it might be the other way around") and he's just dropped information I don't think he could have as town without asking the mod (and he gave us no indication that he asked the mod whether a player killed by multiple kills would show all the kill methods involved or just one; I've seen the latter used in normals before).
- zoraster, care to explain why you switched from the "stay away from muh" side of things yesterday to the "get rid of muh" side today?

Summary:
- Massclaim is worth considering, though it won't be absolutely necessary for 1-2 days.
- Muh lynch has a few major possible benefits; it's a decent test of whether the setup has multiple Mafia factions, it makes sure that we're not counting on muh to make a decision at endgame (given his apparent lack of will to play pro-town, that might be worth considering), and it would get several extremely prolific people pushing a muh lynch to SHUT THE FUCK UP about him. That last point is probably the best point to lynching muh - I don't see the setup advancing until he's dealt with, either by replacement or by lynch (he's not likely to get NKed). Percy in particularly should recognize what I'm afraid will happen if we leave muh alive.

On the other hand... despite his horribly scummy play, muh is not Jupiter Mafia (two Jupiter Mafiosos both pushed for his predecessor's lynch in a fashion that STRONGLY suggests they weren't bussing, and my top candidate for surviving Jupiter Mafia has been doing the same for three days). Nor is he SK; I don't think he's smart enough to have made either set of kills on his own. The only way he's scum is if he's from an unrevealed faction, and there are several other players (Raivann, Vaya, and Riceballtail all come to mind) who I think are considerably more likely to be scum than muh (since they could be Jupiter Mafia).

I'll make this clear - without a dead scum from a second faction, the only grounds I see for a muh lynch are policy lynch grounds. Those may actually be strong enough to lynch (I'm thinking about what muh would do to endgame, and it's not making me a happy *camper*), especially given that our vig is dead, but I'm not going to commit to such a path without thinking it over first - especially when there's several other players that need to die as well.

Case in point: Raivann

Vote: Raivann

[Socrates]

Just straight up asking the MOD is an undervalued action, Tar. Plus, I've seen other games that work in that fashion.

[Socrates]

That was in response to this, by the way:

Socrates needs a MUCH closer look. He's wishy-washy as hell (he's consistently couching his claims in "but it might be the other way around") and he's just dropped information I don't think he could have as town without asking the mod (and he gave us no indication that he asked the mod whether a player killed by multiple kills would show all the kill methods involved or just one; I've seen the latter used in normals before).

Also, since I believe in defending myself against accusation, I take exception to the accusation that I have been "Wishy-washy as hell". I might not have had firm ground in this game, but I have not been changing my opinions to suit the situation, and have been consistent in my reads.

---

You know, I keep forgetting about Vaya. Something HAS to be done about that player. I still stand behind everything I said about him day 1 and nothing about his play day 2 and 3 (which is to say, nothing) has seemed pro-town.

vote: Vaya

[Merkabah]

Thank God for some reason.

Anyways, Socrates brought up a good point that I think needs to be explored further:

@Percy: You obviously believe that we're in multiscum. Wouldn't it benefit us more if we could get rid of Jupiter Mafia if that's what you truly believe? If so, why is muh your top suspect then, if you *should* be looking for Jupiter rather than unrevealed under that belief?

[xRECKONERx]

Holy shit, the above kill analysis blew my mind. I can't wait to get home and not be typing on my phone, but

unvote

for now. After reading the above posts, I find it highly unlikely there are two scum factions. Furthermore, whenever I get to a computer, I think we should look for people who heavily pushed for two factions: good for scum because they can divert attention away from their numbers,good for SK because it denies his or her existence entirely. On the off chance it is a vigilante though, can you please kill muh just for my peace of mind? "/

[Wickedestjr]

Hello, I'm back. Percy, thank you for temporarily replacing me in this game! I'm going to begin catching up now.

[Merkabah]

14. Glork, Town Vigilante, Shot Night 2

You mean that vigiliante?

[xRECKONERx]

There's still a very small chance there were two vigs. I'm not saying we can't rule it out, even if I'm not actually counting on it.

[Merkabah]

@xRx: I'm curious now, who else are you going to look for that has pushed heavily for two factions? Cause looking at your initial response to Exalt/MMan on Swimmer, you kinda sided with swimmer (something about 'I would've had the same reaction to a question like that'); but then you pushed muh pretty heavily throughout the time when I know at least I was saying that he wasn't Jupiter.