Open 186; Jungle Republic (Game Over)

[dank]

It's called distancing. Especially when you aren't even voting him and apparently thought another lynch was sure to happen. If another lynch is a sure thing, there really isn't much risk in bringing up a few points on your buddy.

Why distance if it isn't being provoked? Why shift any attention at all to my scumbuddy when I wouldn't have to? In fact, besides saber, who did I post more about than MC? Do you think the posts I made make me more likely to be his partner than the people who hardly touched his case and largely ignored him?

If he was your second suspect, it seems like you'd be more ok with his lynch than you seemed to be. More of an "Ok, not a bad choice.", but your post had kind of a "this sucks, but whatever" kind of feel to it.

Where are you even getting this? The post right before that one, I say:

I agree with lynx, I am perfectly fine with either Flav or MC for today's lynch. I also prefer Flav over MC; Flav's play has not been nearly enough for me to look past saber, but if most of the town is leaning MC, i've got no problem going along with that lynch instead.

Clearly, i'm against MC's lynch?

Nice of you to buddy up to the guy who is attacking you right now, but it's a complete 180 from the stance you had when there was a wagon on me.

As I explained, D1, I have to base a large majority of your play on saber, because he was in there for a large majority of the game, and was the best lynch. D2, you're lucky enough to get a few weeks to build your own resume, so i've got no problem honoring that. If I want to lynch you today, it'll be much more indicative of your play, as opposed to yesterday being basically all saber.

[Flava Flave]

Why distance if it isn't being provoked? Why shift any attention at all to my scumbuddy when I wouldn't have to? In fact, besides saber, who did I post more about than MC? Do you think the posts I made make me more likely to be his partner than the people who hardly touched his case and largely ignored him?

So that when he flips scum, you can say that you didn't constantly defend him. If you distance properly, it can help you look protown. For example, look at the first few votes on the wagon. CKD, Lowell, and myself. Chances are very low that any of us are BigMC's buddy. But if any of us is, then very well played.

Yes, you talked about MC a lot. That doesn't mean you aren't his buddy. It's not the amount that you talked about him or anyone else. It's what you said compared to your actions.

Clearly, i'm against MC's lynch?

Probably setting yourself up to switch if you need to, but making it known that you prefer the other wagon.

If you were to say "we need to lynch Flave. I am completely against an MC lynch", it would go against everything you'd said all game. All of that distancing would go to waste. And it would look even worse when MC flips scum. So you had to make that post as well as the one where you vote MC just to stay consistant with everything else you've said.

As I explained, D1, I have to base a large majority of your play on saber, because he was in there for a large majority of the game, and was the best lynch. D2, you're lucky enough to get a few weeks to build your own resume, so i've got no problem honoring that. If I want to lynch you today, it'll be much more indicative of your play, as opposed to yesterday being basically all saber.

And why does this change from Day 1 to Day 2?

[dank]

I'll ask again, Do you think the posts I made make me more likely to be his partner than the people who hardly touched his case and largely ignored him?

You seem to be making the whole case on me from not voting my number 2 suspect over the number 1, while building up both cases. The reasoning for keeping my vote on number 1 over number 2 seems to be pretty self explanatory, so I really don't know what else I can tell you about it.

Regarding my vote on MC:

You said:

If he was your second suspect, it seems like you'd be more ok with his lynch than you seemed to be. More of an "Ok, not a bad choice.", but your post had kind of a "this sucks, but whatever" kind of feel to it

I showed you a post where I said exactly what you would expect townMe to say if he was my second suspect ("Ok, not a bad choice."), and proved you wrong. Now, you're twisting that into being scummy as well?

And why this change from Day 1 to Day 2?

Because we were at deadline, with a few days to go, and saber being the best lynch based on the weeks of information on him. With many weeks to go until deadline now, there's plenty more time to analyze the replacement player.

[Flava Flave]

I'll ask again, Do you think the posts I made make me more likely to be his partner than the people who hardly touched his case and largely ignored him?

Yep.

You seem to be making the whole case on me from not voting my number 2 suspect over the number 1, while building up both cases. The reasoning for keeping my vote on number 1 over number 2 seems to be pretty self explanatory, so I really don't know what else I can tell you about it.

No, my case on you is that you were "attacking" known scum, including 2 FoS's, while never voting him until his lynch was unavoidable.

You said:

If he was your second suspect, it seems like you'd be more ok with his lynch than you seemed to be. More of an "Ok, not a bad choice.", but your post had kind of a "this sucks, but whatever" kind of feel to it

I showed you a post where I said exactly what you would expect townMe to say if he was my second suspect ("Ok, not a bad choice."), and proved you wrong. Now, you're twisting that into being scummy as well?

I didn't see an "Ok, not a bad choice" when you voted. The post you showed me wasn;t your vote post. It was a post to set yourself up in case you were forced to bus.

Because we were at deadline, with a few days to go, and saber being the best lynch based on the weeks of information on him. With many weeks to go until deadline now, there's plenty more time to analyze the replacement player.

Hmm. Looked to me like the two wagons were about even.

[Lynx The Antithesis]

vote: Lowell

, to keep up pressure from D1. You've floated along without answering any of the criticisms against you, or really explaining much of what you're doing; that certainly warrants a vote.

Reread coming a bit later.

Whatever. I was on the bigmc wagon way before it was cool. I own this game. Without me this town is nowhere.

You're ridiculous. You are blatantly dodging questions posed at you numerous times and using the lynch of scum in a

multiple

scum faction game to defend not answering anything regarding your actions or flip flopping.

Vote:Lowell

I have to go so I'm making this post in haste, but it's obvious that Lowell, CKD, Flave, and Jazzym are not partners with Bigmc. Bussing on that level would not make sense on day 1 with other options available. Of course this doesn't discount the possibilities of being mafia. But it at least gives them credit in that regard. Dank and Paradox are on the fence for me as they were the last two under the crunch of the deadline. I'd say that Dank though is more fitting of his being his partner. However, those off the wagon shouldn't be forgotten either as we had quite a few inactive players.

Haven't really read the exchange between dank and flave due to lack of time. Will get to it tomorrow.

[Lowell]

1) @lynx- When I made that post I forgot this game has two factions because there was only one NK. Either way, getting rid of werewolves should be the first goal since they have NKs, and you've said you don't believe I'm one. Which makes me think you're voting based on...

2) @lynx- You keep referencing these "questions" you've asked. I read your posts in iso, and other than references to my position on saber (which I explained as best I could) I don't see what your problem is. Your exasperation is unwarranted.

3) @all- This post is a bit of deja vu for me, but.... Anyone want to try a SEER

hypoclaim

? We all say who we investigated (fake or real), so if the seer gets NKed we at least get a little info. My feeling is this would help us more than the werewolves and could be of benefit later on (ESP since the person "cleared" could as easily end up being mafia and killed off by werewolves anyway)

[Jazzmyn]

going to reread....also, going to see who was against MC lynch early on, changed his tune later when it was obvious he was going down.....

Paradox might qualify there. Dank might as well. But my first read of this back and forth between dank and Flava has me leaning towards believing dank. Flava seems to be selective in his choices of which of dank's posts to highlight and comment upon, and saber/Flava still seems scummy to me.

Hewitt also needs looking at because he was posting elsewhere on the site on the 29th and 30th but not in this thread despite the deadline, and instead of chiming in and instead of ensuring that we didn't end up with a no-lynch, he left a useless vote in place rather than comment on or join a wagon that would ensure a lynch.

The Scott slot also needs looking at because Scott was defending saber pretty hard, and yet never made a comment about bigmc anywhere that I can see, and left his vote on Sanhora/MR.

The danakillsu's slot also needs looking at because that slot has been absolutely, entirely, 100% utterly and completely useless all game, which might favour scum hiding there.

I own this game. Without me this town is nowhere.

Such arrogance. And misplaced arrogance at that. You're still scummy despite being on the bigmc wagon.


Regards,
Jazz

[Jazzmyn]

3) @all- This post is a bit of deja vu for me, but.... Anyone want to try a SEER

hypoclaim

? We all say who we investigated (fake or real), so if the seer gets NKed we at least get a little info. My feeling is this would help us more than the werewolves and could be of benefit later on (ESP since the person "cleared" could as easily end up being mafia and killed off by werewolves anyway)

I don't see any purpose in this except to try to help the remaining Werewolf to figure out who the Seer is. As I read the opening posts by the game mod, the Seer gets a result of only "Werewolf" or "Not Werewolf" and we have already lynched one Werewolf, so if the Seer gets a positive result on the remaining Werewolf, he or she can simply claim and we lynch the second Werewolf. There is no pro-town reason to want to try to narrow the field for the remaining Werewolf, and I can't think of any reason why you would want to do so unless it is you.

Vote: Lowell

Regards,
Jazz

[Lowell]

It's a marginal advantage, I admit. But if the seer is NKed why not at least get an innocent (non-werewolf) while we can. With this many people left, maybe one person accidently reveals themselves as non-seer by "clearing" the werewolf? Not a big deal.

[curiouskarmadog]

I dont think lowell is the lynch today...more to come later.

[Jazzmyn]

It's a marginal advantage, I admit. But if the seer is NKed why not at least get an innocent (non-werewolf) while we can. With this many people left, maybe one person accidently reveals themselves as non-seer by "clearing" the werewolf? Not a big deal.

Vanilla townies don't need to be cleared and if the Seer gets a "Not Werewolf" result, that doesn't make the investigated player "innocent" as the player could still be Mafia. So, your suggestion is ludicrous and only helps scum.

Regards,
Jazz

[ZEEnon]

Vote Count

Lowell:

dank, Lynx The Antithesis, Jazzmyn

dank:

Flava Flave

Not Voting:

curiouskarmadog, havingfitz, hewitt, Lowell, Paradoxombie, Percy

With 10 players alive, it takes 6 to lynch.
Deadline: January 23rd, 2010 at approximately 10 p.m.

[Flava Flave]

@Jazz. How am I being selective? I looked at what stood out to me. Even afterwards, Dank brought up other posts and they REINFORCED my points.

@Lowell-wagon. Bad choice. If we can eliminate the last wolf, there won't be any more NKs. That means the only deaths will be via lynch (or modkill if necessary). So we control everything during the day. That's a pretty good spot to be in. So we aren't lynching Lowell, CKD, or Jazz today.

[curiouskarmadog]

Day 2 just started, AGAIN, why are we in such a hurry to lynch?....lowell is at -3...lets so things up a bit

also need to check who rushed the BW yesterday and who is on this quick surge of votes today....hopefully will be able to do all this tonight.

[curiouskarmadog]

so=slow

[Flava Flave]

also need to check who rushed the BW yesterday and who is on this quick surge of votes today....hopefully will be able to do all this tonight.

Lowell wagon is: Dank, Lynx, Jazz
BigMC lynch was: curiouskarmadog, Lowell, Flava Flave,

Jazzmyn

,

Lynx The Antithesis

,

dank

, Paradoxombie
Saber wagon as soon as I came in :Paradoxombie,

dank, Lynx The Antithesis,

hewitt, Budja, bigmc109

Dank and Lynx are common names here. Both were relatively late on BigMC. Both were on Saber, who I know was town, and from an outside point of view, is an unlikely wolf (though this information wasn't availible at the time of the wagon). Now, both have jumped on Lowell, who is unlikely to be a wolf.

If I'm wrong about Dank being the last wolf, Lynx makes sense as well. Let's also not rule out one of the two being mafia.

[Lynx The Antithesis]

2) @lynx- You keep referencing these "questions" you've asked. I read your posts in iso, and other than references to my position on saber (which I explained as best I could) I don't see what your problem is. Your exasperation is unwarranted.

I wanted to know specifically what in saber's three posts after your town read influenced such a swing to deserving of a lynch.

I also wanted to know whether you opposed or was for the saber lynch. It doesn't matter now though considering the bigmc lynch went through and most of the town didn't answer this anyway.

I don't see how the fake seer claim is necessarily a bad idea though. If we all create a result, I don't see how that gives the wolves any advantage as they would have to look through multiple results with no easy pick which one is the real one. It does provide very little at this time though.

It is the correct strategy to go after the wolves first. Lowell is clearly not the other one so

Unvote

Lowell wagon is: Dank, Lynx, Jazz
BigMC lynch was: curiouskarmadog, Lowell, Flava Flave, Jazzmyn, Lynx The Antithesis,dank, Paradoxombie
Saber wagon as soon as I came in :Paradoxombie, dank, Lynx The Antithesis, hewitt, Budja, bigmc109

Dank and Lynx are common names here. Both were relatively late on BigMC. Both were on Saber, who I know was town, and from an outside point of view, is an unlikely wolf (though this information wasn't availible at the time of the wagon). Now, both have jumped on Lowell, who is unlikely to be a wolf.

If I'm wrong about Dank being the last wolf, Lynx makes sense as well. Let's also not rule out one of the two being mafia.

You're absence of Paradox along with Dank and myself is noted. Paradox was one of the major advocates of your lynch and switched to the BigMc the very latest. Possible partners.

As for the wolves situation it's comes down to the two new replacements, Hewitt, Dank, and Paradox. I'll have to hear from the replacements first and Reread from the other three.

[Jazzmyn]

Day 2 just started, AGAIN, why are we in such a hurry to lynch?....lowell is at -3...lets so things up a bit

He has three votes on him, no big deal. Don't know why you're so nannyish about it. He suggested a plan that serves no useful purpose for town and which, if adopted, would only help the last Werewolf to identify our one and only power role. Thus, my vote.

I don't see how the fake seer claim is necessarily a bad idea though. If we all create a result, I don't see how that gives the wolves any advantage as they would have to look through multiple results with no easy pick which one is the real one. It does provide very little at this time though.

It's a bad idea because:
1) The Seer only gets a "Werewolf" or "Not Werewolf" result
2) This means that both Town and Mafia come up as "Not Werewolf"
3) This means that a "Not Werewolf" result is too ambiguous to be helpful at this time
4) If the Seer had a useful result (i.e. "Werewolf") he could just claim and we would lynch the last Werewolf, without any risk to the Seer
5) There is only one player who benefits from knowing who the Seer is, and that is the last Werewolf.

That said, I agree that Lowell is not likely a Werewolf, so perhaps his bad suggestion is just poor play, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if he turns out to be Mafia, who mistakenly thought that the Seer could also out the Mafia and not just the Wolves.

I'll unvote him if/when I get a better feel for who the last Werewolf is, but lynching a Mafia would be a good fallback position.

And the silent players need to speak up soonish.

Regards,
Jazz

[Paradoxombie]

Wow, I really like Flav's case on Dank. It does seem like Dank rode the fence a lot on MC. Dank's suspicions of BMC seem half-hearted, and in retrospect the case on saber looks lacking next to dank's arguments against BMC.

unvote, vote: Dank

Lowell reminds me of saber now. He's acting suspiciously, but he hasn't infuriated me like saber into voting him.

[Percy]

Reading up, folks. Will post soon.

[havingfitz]

I've completed my read and sadly...there was no copious note taking done so I will continue to review previous posts as the game proceeds. Below are my initial takes with a few specifics. I 'll chime in more as we more forward and as I engage with others.

***************************
My main scum suspect at the moment (moreso mafia than wolf) is Lowell due to vote desires on Saber (296) even though he thinks Saber is town

and

his interests in a SEER hypoclaim.

I have gut suspicions (moreso wolf and mafia) towards Paradoxombie due to his focus all game on Lowell (with a hint of suspicions towards Dank following Sanhora's case) only to switch to bigmc at the last minute (rather casually) when it seemed like a foregone conclusion bigmc was going to be the lynch. My Paradoxombie suspiscions are compounded by his defense of Bigmc towards CKD in post 343.

Dank apologizing to Sanhora in post 288 concerned me (which of course was followed by the WIFOM NK of Sanhora), and then the points brought up by Flave were worth consideration as well.

CKD's hammer request one post after the hammer was given and two posts after a vote count was posted struck me as a bit odd.

***************************
Lowell seems to have painted a big, and justified, target on his back. However, between my top two suspects at the moment...I look at Paradoximbie as the more likely wolf option...with Dank a possibility also. Therefore...

Vote: Paradoxombie

[Lowell]

unvote, vote dank

I like the flave case as well. I'll add to it that the dank/lynx pairing in and of itself is suspicious. With relative experience between them it's unlikely to mean they're both on the same team (mafia), but it certainly makes me think one is trying to subtley buddy with the other. Dank is the better choice for scum since lynx has in general been the more active player, and pairing one's vote with him wouldn't be a bad idea if you're scum trying to avoid him looking in your direction.

@jazz- you're still wrong about this. Your argument against hypoclaim now is that "not werewolf" isn't the same as innocent? Yeah, no kidding. So what? Most, nearly all, players will be "cleared" in this process. If one person accidentally "clears" the last werewolf in this process, it's not a huge deal. You drastically overestimate the danger of revealing the seer. It won't affect the game mechanics of scumhunting at all. Clearly no one wants to do it so this is largely moot, but I at least want to defend my mafia theory rep.

[Flava Flave]

Lowell wagon is: Dank, Lynx, Jazz
BigMC lynch was: curiouskarmadog, Lowell, Flava Flave, Jazzmyn, Lynx The Antithesis,dank, Paradoxombie
Saber wagon as soon as I came in :Paradoxombie, dank, Lynx The Antithesis, hewitt, Budja, bigmc109

Dank and Lynx are common names here. Both were relatively late on BigMC. Both were on Saber, who I know was town, and from an outside point of view, is an unlikely wolf (though this information wasn't availible at the time of the wagon). Now, both have jumped on Lowell, who is unlikely to be a wolf.

If I'm wrong about Dank being the last wolf, Lynx makes sense as well. Let's also not rule out one of the two being mafia.

You're absence of Paradox along with Dank and myself is noted. Paradox was one of the major advocates of your lynch and switched to the BigMc the very latest. Possible partners.

Paradox wasn't on all three, which is what I was looking at. You raise a good point though that he was on both Saber and BigMC (as the hammer). He didn't post while Lowell was being wagoned before the wagon was called out or I'd be calling connection on Paradox/Lowell. The post where Paradox votes BigMC looks weak, but to be fair, it's a hammer when the lynch was inevitible. Not quite sure how to read that just yet.

When I look at Paradox's posts skimming for BigMC's name, it looks like honest scumhunting where he asks him some questions. His reaction to Saber looks entirely like a policy vote. When I come in, he says the case on Saber is weak, but he doesn't have better suspects. Then he find Lowell. Her brings up some good points, but the only support he gets (from looking at Vote Counts) is from Hewitt.

What has me confused is this:

Lowell reminds me of saber now. He's acting suspiciously, but he hasn't infuriated me like saber into voting him.

Paradox pretty much led the attack on Lowell yesterday. Now, three players vote Lowell pretty quickly and he makes a comparison to Saber and votes Dank. The Dank vote is probably honest hunting even if Paradox is mafia because even the mafia want wolves dead and that is what I suspect Dank of being. My case makes that clear. But if Paradox is a wolf, he may just be jumping on what he sees.

So right now, I mostly suspect Dank, Paradox, and Lynx. Lynx and Paradox probably aren't buddies. Either I'm wrong about one of them and one is town, or one, probably Paradox, is the last wolf.

I'm still fine with my Dank vote, but I'd consider switching to Paradox.

So, updating my reads:
* Jazzmyn/Budja - One of my strongest town reads.
* curiouskarmadog - One of my strongest town reads.
* dank - Scum read. Probably wolf.
* havingfitz/danakillsu/GinzkeyPlatz- This player slot hasn't done much. Fitz's last post looks pretty good, but I don't have much else to judge them by. I remember Ginz giving me a gut town read, but I don't really remember why.
* hewitt -Protown early on, but he's faded into the background and should probably come back.
* Lowell -Probably town.
* Lynx The Antithesis -My read is scum, but not with Paradox.
* Paradoxombie -My read is scum, but not with Lynx.
* Percy Scott Brosius -Another lurker slot, but without the warm fuzzy town feeling. Maybe mafia?

So I guess my lynch preference from top (best lynch) to bottom (worst lynch) is this:
dank
Paradoxombie
Lynx The Antithesis
Percy
hewitt
Lowell
havingfitz
Jazzmyn
curiouskarmadog

Maybe Hewitt and Lowell need another look from me later considering we have 4 scum left just judging by where I'm placing them on my list. My bottom 2, maybe 3, are the only ones I would actively defend from being lynched. I'd be more than willing to lynch Dank or Paradox. I could support a Lynx lynch if it went that way. Percy, I could probably get behind, but it wouldn't be my top preference.

[curiouskarmadog]

Ok caught up,

After reading yesterday, Lynx, Jazz and dank look scummy…..couple questions.

Jazz, when you entered the game you said I was one of your picks for scum. Two post later from you, you state Big was scummy and vote, in the post you state why you think big was scum, but given that you had 3-4 other’s on your scum list, why did you meta Big?

Lynx, why is Jazz obv not Big’s partner?

Hewitt, who is the last wolf? Name two mafia.

Dank, do you feel that anyone yesterday was riding your ass?

Flav, why is jazz a strong town read? What has he done you deem town?

Lowell, do you think your plan helps the last wolf find the seer? Why or why not.

[Jazzmyn]

@jazz- you're still wrong about this. Your argument against hypoclaim now is that "not werewolf" isn't the same as innocent? Yeah, no kidding. So what? Most, nearly all, players will be "cleared" in this process. If one person accidentally "clears" the last werewolf in this process, it's not a huge deal. You drastically overestimate the danger of revealing the seer. It won't affect the game mechanics of scumhunting at all. Clearly no one wants to do it so this is largely moot, but I at least want to defend my mafia theory rep.

Way to misrepresent my posts. Let me type this more slowly for you. The Seer, presumably, has a result from N1. If that result was "Werewolf" then the Seer would simply claim today, we would promptly lynch the last Werewolf, and the Seer's investigative work would be done. There would be no risk in the Seer doing so because he is no threat to the Mafia. Since no claim has been made, then it seems pretty apparent that the Seer did not get a Werewolf result last night. Therefore, there is no benefit to the town in hypoclaiming today about the Seer's result from last night: the town will not know which of the multiple "not Werewolf" claims comes from the Seer today, so there is nothing useful that we can do with the information today. Add to that the risk that carrying out a hypoclaim means that if we do not hit the last Werewolf today, then the remaining Werewolf gets a narrower field to try to take out the Seer tonight, thus preventing us from obtaining any result from the Seer tomorrow if he hits the last Werewolf tonight. In sum, therefore, there is no benefit to the town for a hypoclaim today; it runs the risk of having the Seer narrowed down for the remaining Werewolf; and the only player who would benefit from it is the last Werewolf. Thus, it's a bad idea.

Jazz, when you entered the game you said I was one of your picks for scum.

You still are.

Two post later from you, you state Big was scummy and vote, in the post you state why you think big was scum, but given that you had 3-4 other’s on your scum list, why did you meta Big?

1) I meta just about everybody in my games eventually.
2) Did you not actually read my posts for comprehension? I set out quite clearly why I went looking for meta on bigmc. Here:

The parts where I found him suspicious were the part where he wasn't paying attention to the vote count while voting saber early on, and the part where he voted for MR because MR asked to be replaced and bigmc claimed that that was a scum tell and he didn't even want to wait for a replacement to come in. He claimed that he thought that was a universally accepted scumtell etc., but when it garnered some suspicion towards him, he backed off, saying that he thought that's how it was but since he was wrong, he would unvote.

Those things were bugging me, so I went and read some of bigmc's completed games.

Those are things that can be specifically sought out in previous games, particularly the latter as he claimed ignorance of townies replacing out etc., so I went reading through his previous games to see his town play and his scum play, looking to see if there was anything in those games to indicate whether he had done something similar before. In the midst of that 60+ page game, I found evidence that what he claimed in this game was a lie. Thus, he had to be scum of one variety or the other.

How did you manage to miss that?

Regards,
Jazz