Mafia 108 - Mafia With The Quickness - over!

[Incognito]

All right. Let's start this game back up.

camn,

Tracker

, killed Night 1

---

It is now Day 2. With 11 alive, 6 votes will do it. Your D2 deadline is set for Friday, January 15th at 2 P.M. EST again. Gogogo.

[Haylen]

first post of the day

[SaintKerrigan]

Vote: Gayle.

Your inconsistencies yesterday are noted.

[Glork]

This is a post that I wrote up during the 48 hour night period, so it doesn't reflect the fact that Camn died as protown. I actually wrote it out of frustration because I expected to be nightkilled, and I wanted some kind of "see, I was right about everything" evidence for postgame. But since I lived, I'm going to post it.



Mae is almost certainly protown (or at least not Mafia scum), and probably a vanilla Townie. Variety of reasons, most important being her responses to my questions, and her desire to take responsibility for the LavaLynch. I don't think she's clever enough to try to champion mislynch responsibility before it happens, so she probably honestly thought she had caught scum.

Probable scumgroups (haven't decided if there are 3 Mafia + SK, 4 Mafia, or just 3 Mafia):
Neto/StKer/Gayle (with camn/Haylen as possible fourths/alternates)
Neto/Zach/Yos (with StKer as a very possible fourth/alternate)

If there's an SK, there's a very good chance that it's Yos.

I'm not sure if this is exactly right, but aoisdfj pasoidg japsodigha psodfj asdo. Neto or StKer had better die tomorrow, if one of them doesn't get Vigged or cross-killed tonight.


If Neto and Zach are both protown, no Mafia had a compelling reason to switch off of either player. And I find {Yos, StKer, Mae, Haylen, Neto, Gayle} all being protown to be highly unlikely. So that's pretty much out the window.

If Neto and Zach are both Mafia, then obviously Yos is suspect for having started the alternate wagon, and StKer/Gayle are suspect for making it a reality. Haylen fits, too, but for some random reason my gut thinks she's protown. That might be my own "It's just the end of D1" inaccuracy, though.

If one of {Neto/Zach} is mafia while the other is non-mafia, then Yos is probably not Mafia. Why? Because as Yos stated, he could have pushed the lynch one way or the other (to protect a scumbuddy or to appear more protown by busing). And EITHER way he swung would have been perfectly believable, so nobody could have pinned the D1 lynch on him specifically. Thus, if exactly one of those two is Mafia, then

If Neto is scum, and Zach is town, then StKer is way up on my list for pushing two alternate wagons (Zach, then Lava). Gayle's behavior towards Neto was weird, and he pushed the LavaLynch over the top, so he gets minus points as well. If there's a fourth, there's a decent chance that person was busing Neto. So Camn/Haylen seem like reasonable alternates, with a slight edge to Haylen for ultimately switching to the LavaLynch.

If Zach is scum and Neto is town, then there's not much reason to move to the Lavalynch unless you're moving from Neto. Haylen is the only person who fits that description. If I were scum, I'd take lynching a power role D1 anyday, especially if I could sit quietly on the alternate wagon and go "see, I knew we should have lynched Zach D1!" So I find this to be pretty unlikely.




Long story short:
It is highly likely that at least Neto is scum, and Zach may be scum, too. If this is the case, St Kerrigan is by far most likely to be Neto's scumbuddy. I would gladly lynch either of Neto/StK today. Depending on the Zach guilty/innocent situation, I could be content to lynch Gayle or Yos or possibly Haylen, too.

In any scenario where Yos is not Mafia scum, he is my tentative favorite to be an SK. No real reason for it, mostly just gut. The way he tried to push the nightkill to me by calling me "protown" and worrying about "sticking his neck out" says that he has an unusually vested interest in living.

Vote: Neto
FoS: StK, Gayle, Yos

[Gayle]

Vote: Gayle.

Your inconsistencies yesterday are noted.

Okay. What do you want to know?

[Glork]

EBWOP:

If one of {Neto/Zach} is mafia while the other is non-mafia, then Yos is probably not Mafia. Why? Because as Yos stated, he could have pushed the lynch one way or the other (to protect a scumbuddy or to appear more protown by busing). And EITHER way he swung would have been perfectly believable, so nobody could have pinned the D1 lynch on him specifically. Thus, if exactly one of those two is Mafia, then

it's unlikely that Yos would have randomly tried to start some other wagon

[SaintKerrigan]

@ Gayle: You said yesterday that you weren't sure who to lynch, but that you favored a Netlava lynch. Inconsistency.

[Glork]

Vote: Gayle.

Your inconsistencies yesterday are noted.

Why do you think the Netlava lynch happened?

What do you think it says about Neto and Zach?

What inconsistencies do you speak of, and what else about Gayle's play led to your decision to vote him?

If Gayle is scum, who do you think are his most likely scumbuddies?

If Gayle turns out to be protown, who do you think is most likely to be scum?

[Glork]

EBWOP: That's not an inconsistency. Being unsure but having a preference is perfectly reasonable. Please come up with a reason that isn't complete garbage.

[Bogre]

Vote: Gayle

Did absolutely nothing yesterday -except- lynch Netlava. Noncontribution > Zach.

He was unwilling to vote for a long time- I need to check his votes but he wasn't very eager to commit to anything.

His 'Is this a bad time for a serious post' irks me.

Finally, he stated that he wouldn't mind lynching Neto because he thought it was going to happen anyways, mentions that it might as well be that day, but then a day later said he thought it would be a mislynch. I imagine he -knows- its a mislynch.

[SaintKerrigan]

Why do you think the Netlava lynch happened?

Because a lot of people didn't want to lynch Neto or Zach, found a Netlava lynch preferable, or were scum taking advantage of a sudden bandwagon.

What do you think it says about Neto and Zach?

I don't know what it says about Zach or Neto. I am more suspicious of Neto, however, due to the fact that we had two town power roles die. It makes his claim seem less likely.

What inconsistencies do you speak of, and what else about Gayle's play led to your decision to vote him?

First part has been answered. Second part will have to be answered later.

I'm deliberately ignoring answering the rest of your questions. Reasons why will be given later.[/quote]

[SaintKerrigan]

Unvote: Gayle. Vote: Bogre.

Misrepresentation noted.

[Glork]

Why do you think the Netlava lynch happened?

Because a lot of people didn't want to lynch Neto or Zach, found a Netlava lynch preferable, or were scum taking advantage of a sudden bandwagon.

Do you think townspeople or scums had more incentive to jump to the LavaLynch?

[Ellibereth]

How the did hell Net get lynched yesterday??? Can anyone here explain to me the rationale behind that lynch? The last minute shift was completely ridiculous. There was close to 0 chance of a claim....arghrah. It was just ridiculous
Neto should have died yesterday, and he's going to die today. Neto+Gayle+Yos scum. I have a town gut reads on Kerri and Haylen.

Vote: Neto

[SaintKerrigan]

Why do you think the Netlava lynch happened?

Because a lot of people didn't want to lynch Neto or Zach, found a Netlava lynch preferable, or were scum taking advantage of a sudden bandwagon.

Do you think townspeople or scums had more incentive to jump to the LavaLynch?

Looking back, scum had a very opportune moment to lynch a protown person, while keeping around the two scummiest players from Day 1. I would be willing to wager that there were scum on the Netlava wagon.

[Glork]

Why do you think the Netlava lynch happened?

Because a lot of people didn't want to lynch Neto or Zach, found a Netlava lynch preferable, or were scum taking advantage of a sudden bandwagon.

Do you think townspeople or scums had more incentive to jump to the LavaLynch?

Looking back, scum had a very opportune moment to lynch a protown person, while keeping around the two scummiest players from Day 1. I would be willing to wager that there were scum on the Netlava wagon.

So which of those wagoners are your top suspects?

[Gayle]

@ Gayle: You said yesterday that you weren't sure who to lynch, but that you favored a Netlava lynch. Inconsistency.

Its not inconsistent. I didn't know who I really wanted to lynch. I voted for a Netlava lynch because I thought it was better than the alternatives.

Did absolutely nothing yesterday -except- lynch Netlava. Noncontribution > Zach.

This is true.

He was unwilling to vote for a long time- I need to check his votes but he wasn't very eager to commit to anything.

And yet I did commit in the end.

His 'Is this a bad time for a serious post' irks me.

Maybe you haven't noticed, but that message was preceded by an entire page of joke posts.

Finally, he stated that he wouldn't mind lynching Neto because he thought it was going to happen anyways, mentions that it might as well be that day, but then a day later said he thought it would be a mislynch. I imagine he -knows- its a mislynch.

A complete lie.

[Maemuki]

Wait. Bogre is on this freaking game?

Vote: Bogre

until he does something useful.

Bogre is on this game...bogre is on this game...must not forget...

I love Glork's post and I'll reread the game so I can see if I agree with all of it. I didn't like this part though:

I don't think she's clever enough to try to champion mislynch responsibility before it happens, so she probably honestly thought she had caught scum.

Do you think I'm dumb?

[SaintKerrigan]

On the Netlava wagon, my top suspect is Haylen. Second is Gayle. Third is Neto. All this is based on gut feeling, though (except for Haylen), but I'm interested right now in what Bogre is trying to purport on Gayle.

[Zachrulez]

Vote: Netopolis

Come on people, give him the death he deserves.

[SaintKerrigan]

Its not inconsistent. I didn't know who I really wanted to lynch. I voted for a Netlava lynch because I thought it was better than the alternatives.

Fine.

[Haylen]

On the Netlava wagon, my top suspect is Haylen. Second is Gayle. Third is Neto. All this is based on gut feeling, though (except for Haylen), but I'm interested right now in what Bogre is trying to purport on Gayle.

Why? What have I done this time?

[Bogre]

Unvote: Gayle. Vote: Bogre.

Misrepresentation noted.

Misrepresentation? Where?

[Glork]

I don't think she's clever enough to try to champion mislynch responsibility before it happens, so she probably honestly thought she had caught scum.

Do you think I'm dumb?

I don't think you're mafia-savvy.

[Ellibereth]

CAN EVERYONE WHO VOTED FOR NET TELL MY WHY THEY DID SO???