Big Brother Mafia - Town wins!

[farside22]

Okay, so ani's dead. 4/6 votes.

Last time I watched BB, I just remembered that (# of players) - (3) = (# of voters.)

Yup, yup and there is currently 9 players alive right now so 6 players voting.

[Crazy]

Actually, Kast should be nominated tomorrow to force the coup d'etat out of him. If Kast is a Mafia Producer on Day 6 with both of his partners still alive, he could use the coup and win. On Day 5, he won't be able to instantly win by using it, regardless of his alignment.

And here I'm hoping that ani isn't the last Chenbot that's going to make Kast HoH tomorrow just for the heck of it.

[Kast]

@Hewitt-
Pay more attention. My post was very clearly and obviously a response to and continuation of conversation with Llama that refers to D4. Noted as a poorly thought out character attack.

@Llama-
Agreed with your assessment of how scum would have to use Coup. I'm suspicious of your "mistake" in repeating that tomorrow is the last day to use Coup, since it seems out of character with the rest of your play to make that mistake.

@Crazy-

If Kast is a Mafia Producer on Day 6 with both of his partners still alive, he could use the coup and win. On Day 5, he won't be able to instantly win by using it, regardless of his alignment.

And if Kast is forced to use Coup D5, then town loses the ability to stop a Producer-HoH from auto-winning*. Odds of Kast being non-Producer to being Producer are roughly 4 to 1.

This kind of discussion, similar to Llama's previous post, are more examples of fearmongering and are extremely irresponsible if conducted by townies. Even townies who might be suspicious of Kast should wait to see how AM flips, rather than providing a crap-logic justification for AM's probable scumbuddy HoH nomination.

*-There is a difference between forced use of Coup for sake of using it up and use of Coup for sake of killing scum. If it looks like Coup must be used to be able to lynch scum, then it will be used.

Forcing use of Coup for it's own sake is scummy.

[LlamaFluff]

@Llama-
Agreed with your assessment of how scum would have to use Coup. I'm suspicious of your "mistake" in repeating that tomorrow is the last day to use Coup, since it seems out of character with the rest of your play to make that mistake.

So because I had a game mechanich wrong, and pushed using something that I had wanted to use at the time I thought it was the enitre time is scummy? I still want to put you up tomorrow (even if you werent suspicious) since if you are producer scum, there are force wins. Even if it was a town read I would still want them forceably using it.

And if Kast is forced to use Coup D5, then town loses the ability to stop a Producer-HoH from auto-winning*. Odds of Kast being non-Producer to being Producer are roughly 4 to 1.

So we go into tomorrow with 3 producer, 6 non-producer. We make you use overthrow. We lynch non-producer who noms producer and town loses. Or, we dont make you use overthrow, if you are producer town loses. If you arent, we lynch town, who puts up producer, we still can lose.

Its a matter of us being more sure you are non-producer, or that we can lynch right OR the lynchee has town identified and we lynch right. I like door number two.

There is a difference between forced use of Coup for sake of using it up and use of Coup for sake of killing scum. If it looks like Coup must be used to be able to lynch scum, then it will be used.

You can not tell me that you are not going to use overthrow at all. NO WAY that it just expires, regardless of your alignment it is going to be used.

[Kast]

@Pablito-
Taking time to think about the game is fine. However, realize your vote does not matter, except to keep you from being modkilled (and then the target still does not matter).

If you think you will be too busy to catch up on the game prior to deadline, don't hold off on placing a vote.

@Crazy-
In the event that Kast is Producer-scum AND AM is non-Producer, then town is pretty much screwed even with a forced use of Coup. Scum-Kast will be unlynchable and his nominations would be picked to ensure no lynch of his scumbuddies. Scum-Kast would only be nommed on D6 if neither buddy was selected as HoH. This leaves 2 scumbuddy voters who can control the lynch for the win. If Producer-scum control PoV on D6 (or D5) it would be auto-win.

And if Kast is forced to use Coup on D5, town will be completely unable to distinguish any affiliation information from the use.

But again, this discussion is unlikely to be useful since we've just evicted obv-scum.

[Kast]

Or, we dont make you use overthrow, if you are producer town loses. If you arent, we lynch town, who puts up producer, we still can lose.

This is more fearmongering without considering what will actually happen. If I am producer and AM is not, town has already essentially lost.

Forced use of Coup tomorrow has very little effect on that except to completely prevent town from gaining information to determine whether Kast is producer or not.

Town's best course of action is to nail non-Kast suspected-Producer tomorrow. If Kast is Producer, this forces Kast to reveal himself and his buddy, OR stops the auto-Coup win.

You can not tell me that you are not going to use overthrow at all. NO WAY that it just expires, regardless of your alignment it is going to be used.

Reading comprehension fail. I will use Coup on D5 even if not forced if it looks like that is necessary to hit scum (ie. AM picks his scumbuddy as HoH).

[Kast]

@Llama-
I'm not sure what to make of your flip-flopping on the issue of forcing use of Coup for it's own sake. Your arguments for putting me up now are not based on finding me scummy (if you have an argument on that, you should put it up), but rather based on the unlikely possibility that something terrible could happen.

At the same time, your analysis now dismisses the potential benefits to town, something you previously argued for. This change in position sounds is quite suspicious.

[LlamaFluff]

Or, we dont make you use overthrow, if you are producer town loses. If you arent, we lynch town, who puts up producer, we still can lose.

This is more fearmongering without considering what will actually happen. If I am producer and AM is not, town has already essentially lost.

Forced use of Coup tomorrow has very little effect on that except to completely prevent town from gaining information to determine whether Kast is producer or not.

Town's best course of action is to nail non-Kast suspected-Producer tomorrow. If Kast is Producer, this forces Kast to reveal himself and his buddy, OR stops the auto-Coup win.

Yeah town is in serious trouble if AM isnt producer and you are. In the event that you are produer and he isnt, putting you up (forcing you to use overthrow) is the only way town can win. So its what is going to happen. Tomorrow if you are producer and dont have to use overthrow, producers win.

Also you are ignoring the fact that a lot of people think you are scum.

You can not tell me that you are not going to use overthrow at all. NO WAY that it just expires, regardless of your alignment it is going to be used.

Reading comprehension fail. I will use Coup on D5 even if not forced if it looks like that is necessary to hit scum (ie. AM picks his scumbuddy as HoH).

You are missing what I am saying though. You are saying that if you dont like noms you are using it. Im saying you will use it either way before it expires, unless the noms are identical to your choice

[LlamaFluff]

@Llama-
I'm not sure what to make of your flip-flopping on the issue of forcing use of Coup for it's own sake. Your arguments for putting me up now are not based on finding me scummy (if you have an argument on that, you should put it up), but rather based on the unlikely possibility that something terrible could happen.

People are easier swayed by fear. Also im not the only one who says you are scummy. Will get a case up soon.

[Crazy]

@Kast, by forcing you to use the Coup tomorrow...

a. If you're town, then we get nominations that are controlled by a townie tomorrow.
b. If you're Producer-scum, then you won't get an auto-win on Day 6.
c. If you're Chenbot-scum, it really doesn't matter either way.

The only potential loss is that the Day 6 HoH puts up crappier noms than the Day 5 HoH,

and

you are pro-town. And I'm not going to base a whole lot on that possibility.

[animorpherv1]

well, I hope y'all have fun tomorrow.

/job done

[hewitt]

@Hewitt-
Pay more attention. My post was very clearly and obviously a response to and continuation of conversation with Llama that refers to D4. Noted as a poorly thought out character attack.

Wooow you will try just about anything to paint someone as scum, that's pretty ridiculous. Poorly thought out character attack...yeah...that's EXACTLY what it was. And I don't understand how YOU don't understand the pro-town move of forcing you to use the Coup. If you're a floater, quit playing pissy that you're losing your "special power" and if you're scum, well, keep playing the way you're playing.

[farside22]

Nominate: animorph and bv


Morph (5) kast, Kmd4390, Hewitt, snow_bunny, Llamafluff
Bv310 (0)

Deadline for votes are Friday Jan 22nd 2:00pm PST

Not voting:

pablito

[Kast]

In the event that you are produer and he isnt, putting you up (forcing you to use overthrow) is the only way town can win.

This fails for several reasons:
-You are omitting the requirement that town does not lynch Producer tomorrow. If town HoH noms a Producer on D5, then scum-Kast must either let his teammate die (losing the autowin) OR directly reveal himself and his teammate. This is what town

should

aim for, instead of aiming at a game mechanic.
-Town PoV + Town HoH prevents a D6 Producer-Scum from using Coup to auto-win.
-You are using an extremely unlikely chain of events to justify behavior instead of looking at what is probable.
-Your insistence on pushing your position WITHOUT waiting for guaranteed info from AM's flip is scummy like nothing else. It is akin to Sly's push for ending initial HoH selection period. There is absolutely no reason for townies to do what you are doing.

You are missing what I am saying though.

Not really. I distinctly and repeatedly have said I would use Coup on D6 (final day). I added a caveat that I may use Coup on D5 if I feel it necessary. You argued a straw man that my caveat was a claim to potentially never use the Coup power. My post didn't say or imply anything of that sort. Just because you link a lie with something we agree on does not make the lie any less of a lie.

-Crazy weakly suggested I am Chenbot scum.
Hewitt said I am scum pro-town until I refused to back down, then OMGUSed and said I must be scum because I have the Coup d'etat.
You have not provided reasons other than an improbable doomsday scenario.

@Crazy-
-Forced use of Coup prevents town from stopping a D6 producer win if a Producer is selected as HoH.
-Forced use of Coup prevents town from learning information from my use of Coup.

@Hewitt-
More fail in your post. You attempt to blend two distinct thoughts into one and hide your crap-attack. They are separate. The first is a reading failure on your part. Such a failure is uncharacteristic of your other behavior and this indicates it is a scum move.

The second part shows you aren't even trying. I have posted my reasons and responses to your fearmongering. You simply resort to insults instead of any explanation or discussion.

Bottom line is this:
-There is one extremely unlikely situation in which forced use of Coup stops town auto-loss
-There is one equally if not more probably situation in which forced use of Coup guarantees town auto-loss
-In all other cases, forced use of coup is strictly worse than consensual use of Coup and directly deprives town of information.

-The only situation where forced use of Coup should be considered is if AM is non-Producer. AM is lynched. We will learn his affiliation tomorrow. Insisting on a decision BEFORE learning AM's affiliation is scummy like nothing else.

[animorpherv1]

before I die,

[LlamaFluff]

In the event that you are produer and he isnt, putting you up (forcing you to use overthrow) is the only way town can win.

This fails for several reasons:
-You are omitting the requirement that town does not lynch Producer tomorrow. If town HoH noms a Producer on D5, then scum-Kast must either let his teammate die (losing the autowin) OR directly reveal himself and his teammate. This is what town

should

aim for, instead of aiming at a game mechanic.
-Town PoV + Town HoH prevents a D6 Producer-Scum from using Coup to auto-win.
-You are using an extremely unlikely chain of events to justify behavior instead of looking at what is probable.
-Your insistence on pushing your position WITHOUT waiting for guaranteed info from AM's flip is scummy like nothing else. It is akin to Sly's push for ending initial HoH selection period. There is absolutely no reason for townies to do what you are doing.

Look tomorrow there are three producer scum alive, five non-producer. You are producer. If you do not have to use overthrow to ensure you or partners living, you win. Period.

Town having PoV and HoH doesnt even stop this, and you know it. Town A HoH does anything, you take over, put up town B and town C. If town B or town C uses PoV, town D goes up. The ONLY way town can win is if HoH doesnt have PoV, and you put up the other two who dont have PoV. Its a 25% chance that town loses EVEN IF we have PoV to work with.

Also I would be putting you up tomorrow even if you didnt have overthrow if I get HoH.

[hewitt]

Hey Kast how about you quit lying? I don't believe I ever called you scum and it's pretty ridiculous that you just said that I did. Your attempts at painting me as a pro-fear-mongering player is also ridiculous.

Quit. Being. Pissy.

[Kmd4390]

I still think Kast is town.

[Snow_Bunny]

I still think Kmd and Llama are scum.

[Crazy]

@Crazy-
-Forced use of Coup prevents town from stopping a D6 producer win if a Producer is selected as HoH.
-Forced use of Coup prevents town from learning information from my use of Coup.

The former is true, although I'd put greater faith that the D6 HoH is town rather than that you are town. I am assuming here that ani is non-producer and the Day 5 lynch is non-producer, because if they were producers, then this whole argument is irrelevant because there's no possible auto-win for producers.

[Kast]

@Llama-
Way to fix on one point and ignore the rest. Also, where is that case against me?

On the point you tried arguing, you are wrong.

D6 with 3 Producers, Producer Coup, non-Producer HoH, non-Producer PoV:

non-Producer HoH cannot be nominated. non-Producer PoV user picks another non-Producer, both are immune to nomination. Three non-Producer voters means no auto-win for Producers. It's really simple and your failure to see this shows that you aren't thinking through what I posted.

-If you are town, then seriously think through your scenarios instead of making assumptions. The sloppy play here is typical of the rest of your arguments for forcing use of the Coup.

@Hewitt-
If we take your post at face value, then you are claiming you think I am not scum, but still want to evict me. [sarcasm]That makes tons of sense...[/sarcasm]

Also, more ad hom. You should calm down and play the game; address points with arguments and discussion instead of repeatedly resorting to insults.

@Crazy-

I am assuming here that ani is non-producer and the Day 5 lynch is non-producer,

To the first, we will see in a few hours.

To the second, the priority for D5 should be hitting Producer-scum. If HoH is a townie, his objective should be to pick the most probable Producers as his noms. Playing a strategy that assumes this will not happen locks townies into suboptimal play and excuses scum to engage in anti-town behavior.

if they were producers, then this whole argument is irrelevant

I have been saying this. At this point, my guess is that Hewitt knows he's going down after AM flips and he is probably trying to do damage control from his death by trying to trick town to accept forced burn of Coup without thinking things through.

@Pablito-
Unless you plan to be modkilled, you should place a vote.

@Mod-
If Pablito is modkilled, does that limit Coup and PoV to D5 as the last day?

[hewitt]

Kast I never said I wanted to evict you although every time you post you're inching up higher and higher on my evict list.

[farside22]

Pablito has 3 more hours.........

EDIT: My appologize I'm a week ahead of myself. There is still one more week to vote.

grabs coffee to wake up.

[farside22]

IF PAB'S IS MODKILLED. DAY 5 WILL BE THE LAST DAY TO USE POV AND THE COUP.

[Crazy]

To the first, we will see in a few hours.

To the second, the priority for D5 should be hitting Producer-scum. If HoH is a townie, his objective should be to pick the most probable Producers as his noms. Playing a strategy that assumes this will not happen locks townies into suboptimal play and excuses scum to engage in anti-town behavior.

Well, if you're forced to used your coup tomorrow, and you're town, then you can nominate those Producer scumz! If you can get producer scumz lynched, then we don't have to worry about a producer HoH Day 6 auto-winning, 'kay?