Newbie 848 - The Bunny Mafia Family - over finally!

[Haylen]

The things you've cleared Haylen on are just pitiful.

The things you've decided Haylen is scum on are just pitiful.

[Netopalis]

Faulty logic. The status quo was a Haylen lynch until SK replaced in - Jase wasn't even really considered during the no-lynch days.

Also, when you answer this, perhaps you could flesh out exactly why my arguments are bad rather than just saying that they're bad.

[charter]

You've cleared Haylen because you don't think Nacho as a scumbuddy would have defended her, which is really dumb, scum defend their buddies all the time.

I'm defending Kerrigan now, and somehow that makes me his partner? You're condemning me for the same reason you're clearing Haylen.

Day three, Haylen got just one vote, yours. If you check the end of day two, like this votecount, you'll see why.

Vote Count #10 of Day 2

Haylen (4) <-~ MichelSableheart, Netopalis, Sposh, Vel-Rahn Koon
Sposh (4) <-~ Jase, Haylen, Bwian, Nachomamma8

With 8 alive, 5 will do it.

Friday, November 13th at 7 P.M. EST.

Now, if you're actually believing what you just posted (and you're not scum, and I don't think you are) then this wagon is made up of three confirmed town, and one more likely town. Michel was forced to switch votes and hammer Sposh. After that night, half of the Haylen supporters were dead, enough to quash any hope of that wagon resurrecting.

If you think about the Michel kill, it only makes sense if Haylen is scum. Michel was convinced Haylen was scum, but he just stuck his neck out on the line bigtime to flip flop on that to ensure a lynch. The only reason I can see for killing him is because he was suspicious of Haylen.

The rival wagon was on Sposh. It's possible that every single person in the game was clueless at that point, but it's extremely unlikely to get two wagons deadlocked like that and then NO ONE is switching to the other. If Haylen were town, then one of the scums would have done what Michel did and switched votes well before deadline so that the town didn't realize and fire up a wagon on one of them.

I can see when the fight is lost. You guys go ahead and lynch Kerrigan, and then I hope after the game you reread this game and learn, because there's a HUGE learning opportunity from this game. Haylen and Nacho are two of the most obvious scum on the history of MS. Yes, call it an appeal to whatever you want, but it's true and it's a shame you are handing the game to them when they've played utterly terrible.

[Haylen]

Cut the crap, Charter. You're experienced to know that Night Kills are WIFOM. They are commonly used to frame people.

[Netopalis]

Yes, scum defend each other all the time. However, not under the circumstances in which Nacho defended her. It was practically a given that Haylen would be lynched, Nacho knew this and even pushed for it on earlier days. I really don't think that, as scum, he would have drastically shifted his strategy as he did. I never really said that you and SK were scum because you were defending each other, I said that you were scum because you were largely choosing to not comment on each other's posts, a classic distancing technique. I also said that SK was scummy for his opening attack, as are you. You both picked rather easy targets with little independent justification.

In a recent minigame, I was lynched D1 by a wagon containing 7 townies. The logic of "This person voted for this person, and they later turned out to be town!" is rather weak - it assumes that the confirmed player had additional information, and we have no information to lead us to that conclusion. Indeed, we know that Michel was a vanilla townie.

Any player would have killed Michel at that point. He was the strongest pro-town player and would have been a serious hurdle for anyone as scum - me, Haylen, VRK, Bwian, Jase, Sposh OR Nacho would have wanted to kill him. Yes, Haylen might have particularly wanted to do so...but everyone had a good motive for it.

The dichotomy of two rival wagons leading to at least one being scum is also false. It happens all the time, especially in newbie games and especially in games in which three players are practically inactive.

I am willing to listen to you if you have a good reason for going against Haylen, but you've not seriously engaged my points. If Haylen and Nacho were scum, why would Nacho make such a huge turnaround when he had spent the entire game attempting to bus her?

[Nachomamma8]

I can see when the fight is lost. You guys go ahead and lynch Kerrigan, and then I hope after the game you reread this game and learn, because there's a HUGE learning opportunity from this game. Haylen and Nacho are two of the most obvious scum on the history of MS. Yes, call it an appeal to whatever you want, but it's true and it's a shame you are handing the game to them when they've played utterly terrible.

Sure, I'll call it an appeal to emotion when it's so blatantly obvious that it is. If it wasn't then why didn't you hammer if "the fight was lost"?

[charter]

Sorry Neto, I've already laid out plenty of points for Haylen being scum. Not going to continue investing time in to this.

[Netopalis]

Right. So helpful. So incredibly helpful.

[charter]

All of what I can say is just continue telling you you're letting the scum trample all over you. Their play has been downright awful, and you're excusing it by writing it off as fallacies and false dichotomies.

Yes, wagons on town made up entirely of townies do occur, but I doubt that in that game you're talking about there was another rival wagon, and it was just deadlocked until deadline. I guess it's more obvious to me since I've seen situations where there are two people tied for a lynch and people support one lynch over the other for seemingly no reason. The reason is one person is their buddy.

I am willing to listen to you if you have a good reason for going against Haylen, but you've not seriously engaged my points. If Haylen and Nacho were scum, why would Nacho make such a huge turnaround when he had spent the entire game attempting to bus her?

Nacho hasn't bussed Haylen one bit this game. I don't know where you've gotten that from. He's really not commented on her hardly at all the entire game. He voted Sposh over Haylen because "at least Haylen's shown an effort". He tried VERY HARD (post 477) to vote Sposh over Haylen, he gave a ton of BS reasons for doing it.

He hasn't voted her. Hasn't expressed suspicion of her. All he's done is ignore her scummy play and defend her.

In fact, he says he'll hammer Haylen if she's not dead 90 minutes before deadline (conveniently Michel hammers Sposh first) and then the next day, he votes you because you ask who of Haylen or VRK should be lynched.

I think you're seriously misremembering this game. Nacho hasn't tried to get Haylen lynched at all, go back and reread and I'm sure you'll see it. He doesn't comment on her, then he tries very hard to act like he's suspicious of her when she's under fire, but he never does anything to further her wagon when she's under heavy fire, and once those suspicious of her have been killed off, he goes right back to avoiding commenting and questioning her.

I don't know what you're expecting me to do. You need to go back and look at how Nacho voted Sposh over Haylen, because Nacho has not bussed Haylen or even questioned her at all. Once again, all I can do is repeat that Haylen and Nacho have both played very poorly and very scummy and they need to be lynched.

[Netopalis]

Hmm...Well done. You're right, I did misremember Nacho's stance towards Haylen in the early game. Hmm....This does seem to make a Haylen/Nacho team much, much more likely. That, coupled with how quickly Nacho jumped onto SK after I suspected him...

Very interesting indeed. I could see either pair being scum. Let me think about this for a bit...

Unvote

[Netopalis]

I've thought about it some more. Nacho's actions today still look extremely pro-town to me, as does his D1 defense when he was one of the two candidates to be lynched. I still think that SK and Charter are probably the team...but I'm not as sure as I was before. I'd like to hear a bit more from VRK before committing myself one way or another, because honestly, I could see either possibility to be true.

[charter]

What about Nacho's actions seem protown to you? As far as I know, all he's done today is try and lynch Kerrigan. His posts lack any actual scumhunting, they're much more reactionary and waiting for stuff to happen as opposed to making stuff happen. I think you should weigh his scummy actions and connections to Haylen more than you are. He's

very strongly

tied in with Haylen.

If it helps, Nacho just got daykilled in this game, I think his play is kind of similar, but I'm biased as I've already convinced myself he's scum here and I'm not seeing it any other way. Up to you if you want to look at it or not, it's ongoing so I'm not going to discuss it any.
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=13026

[Incognito]

Vote Count #13 of Day 5

SaintKerrigan (2) <-~ Nachomamma8, Haylen
Haylen (2) <-~ charter, SaintKerrigan

Not voting (2) <-~ Vel-Rahn Koon, Netopalis

With 6 alive, 4 votes will do it.

Monday, January 18th at 7 P.M. EST.

[charter]

MOD, request deadline extension for site problems everyone is having. Or because no one likes mondays, or really any reason at all.

Neto, notice how helpful both Nacho and Haylen are being right now. Haylen just posts her snide comments, nothing of value, though she responds to practically all my posts within minutes. Nacho seems to just be trying to fly under the radar to victory. He's ignored practically all my case against Haylen, he has no comment on it. This is classic,

classic

, CLASSIC scum distancing that you were talking about before.

Nacho also swept a really good point against him under the rug, and in the mess with Haylen, I get too frustrated to remember everything clearly, but take a good look at this.

Also, everyone check out page 19 and Nacho's awesome vote on Sposh which tips the scales from a Haylen lynch to a Sposh lynch. Buddies.

I posted my reasoning for lynching Sposh and Haylen at the time. Do you disagree with it? Why?

I respond, basically saying his reason for preferring Sposh was bogus, and he just drops it. He pretty much falls off the face of the earth, I'm betting to wait out this deadline. I implore you to go back and look at how he votes for Sposh over Haylen. All of his claimed suspicion of Haylen is phoney, they're scum!

[Incognito]

Sorry, I can't grant any further extensions. This Day was already a week longer than other Days (since I gave an extra week for the holidays to make it

4

weeks total), and I just gave another 3 days. The site problems weren't TOO bad either.

[charter]

Ok, didn't really expect another one.

VRK, hope you're able to read and post tomorrow since the deadline is in two days.

Neto, what are you currently thinking?

[Netopalis]

I'll be honest, I'm really torn. I can see logical arguments for both sides. It's true, I've been going against Haylen the whole game....I think I probably need to sleep on it.

In the meantime, could you answer a question for me? If Haylen/Nacho were the scumteam, what would they have to gain from no-killing for 3 consecutive nights? Why would they have supported no lynch if they planned to no-kill?

[charter]

I can only remember one time where I was scum and I wanted to no kill (though my partner quickly talked me out of it) and it was because only one person was suspicious of myself and another was suspicious of my partner (this was at night with six alive, two scum left in a 12p mini) and there were multiple people suspicious of a particular townie. I wanted to no kill to try and lynch the suspicious townie the next day, but my partner said we shouldn't, else people would figure out that we no killed because we wanted to preserve the game state. We wound up killing the person suspicious of my partner and we had a very narrow win, but I believe it was the right play to make.

Based off experience, I almost never go the no lynch route in a MYLO situation. Couple of reasons for this (not all of them applicable in a newbie game). The biggest one is that it's much safer for town in MYLO as opposed to LYLO. It's almost impossible for scum to quickhammer since they need two townies to misvote the same person, and it's really difficult to wait that long without attracting suspicion. Another very compelling reason is if there is a survivor or third party role, then if you go to LYLO it's nearly impossible for town to win. Or if the scum has a one shot vig or something, and has saved it til then, its power is unlimited and they can just blindside you after you no lynch with two kills to end the game.

Going down to LYLO has the advantage that you have a statistically better chance of lynching scum, but I don't think that's worth it because you should have a pretty damn good idea of who is scum by then, or you're probably going to lose no matter what. I think the disadvantage of just needing a single townie to misvote outweighs the advantage.

Like I said, some of those aren't applicable here, but the first one definitely is. People have changed their votes all over the place today, and if it was LYLO, that would have been impossible, and chances are, the first misvote would have been game. I know I already misvoted with my VRK vote while reading the game.

So, to answer your question, I honestly think they're no killing because they think it's the best play for them to make as scum. In my opinion, they're seriously hurting themselves by not night killing. If Nacho and Haylen are scum, then they could almost certainly have gotten either yourself or Kerrigan to vote for VRK, but since they needed both of you to do it, it never happened.

As for why they would have supported a no lynch, Haylen came straight out of the gates day three saying no lynch was the best play. I suppose it's a weak ploy to look protown by talking about no lynch, when in reality, discussing whether to lynch or not is pretty much active lurking. As far as continuing the charade for this long, the only explanation I can come up with is scum thinks not night killing is the best play, but they also think that, as town, not lynching is the best play. So in the thread they push no lynching, but then they actually think that not killing is the best play, so they secretively do that at night.

When I asked everyone if they think you should no lynch in MYLO or not, I was hoping people would say no, you should lynch someone. VRK did, and based off that (and not being scum with Haylen) I pretty much eliminated him as scum. If he can see both ways to lynch/no lynch in MYLO, I find it extremely hard to believe that he's scum and just not killing at night constantly. I feel that people who would answer that question as no would not no kill at night as scum. It makes sense to me, anyhow.

This turned in to an essay, so sorry for rambling on, but the quick and dirty answers to your questions, the only thing I can think of that Haylen/Nacho gain from no killing at night is they believe it's the best play for them to make and they support no lynch because they think that no lynching is the correct town play, and so they have to support that in the thread, or risk being accused of supporting an idea that benefits scum.

[charter]

Oh, could you tell me what about Nacho's play today seems protown to you as well?

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

Weekends are bad for me guys, sorry. I know the deadline is Monday evening, and I will have something Monday morning when I do normal maintenance.

[Haylen]

Lol, deadline falls an hour before my coursework is due it. Do not expect me to be posting much.

[Haylen]

Scratch that, I forgot i'm 5 hrs in front, not behind. I'll be there after 4pm my time.

[charter]

Neto, where you at?

[Netopalis]

Still here, just still thinking. This is really complicated, and I don't want to rush into a decision. Expect something a bit better tomorrow.

[Nachomamma8]

All of what I can say is just continue telling you you're letting the scum trample all over you. Their play has been downright awful, and you're excusing it by writing it off as fallacies and false dichotomies.

Appeal to Emotion. "These guys are so obviously scum, why can't you see it?"

Nacho seems to just be trying to fly under the radar to victory. He's ignored practically all my case against Haylen, he has no comment on it.

Flying under the radar? I am the most active person here aside from you...

As for ignoring your case against Haylen, I don't see why I need to comment more on it. I've showed you why I disagreed with some of your points against her. I ignored some of the ones I agreed with. As for the rest, she'll have to defend herself.

Nacho hasn't bussed Haylen one bit this game. I don't know where you've gotten that from. He's really not commented on her hardly at all the entire game. He voted Sposh over Haylen because "at least Haylen's shown an effort". He tried VERY HARD (post 477) to vote Sposh over Haylen, he gave a ton of BS reasons for doing it.

I had been pretty suspicious of Sposh for a while. Note ISO posts 19, 24, 26, 48, 50...

RE: 1092:
I don't see the point of 80% of that except to make it look like you spent your time making a long, thought out post. As for the relevant part, you cited a reason as no killing as scum is to preserve the game state.

GAME STATE BEFORE THE NO LYNCH/NO KILLS:

People who had Haylen as a top suspect: VRK, Neto, Bwain, Jase.

That seems like a pretty anti-Haylen game state right there.