Teleportation Mafia Universe TWO (TOWN WINS)

[Kairyuu]

/confirm

I almost wish I hadn't pointed out the way to nearly break the setup so that our fearless leader could fix it. Would have been fun to exploit.

[Kairyuu]

As it stands it's still optimal for the teleporters to claim, and then target each other at Night, because we can then force the scumkill on odd Nights. In addition to that, it's best if we attempt to coordinate Nights as much as possible in order for the cross-targetting to be possible. It's nowhere close to broken anymore, as it gives us a net gain of 0 confirmed townies in the long run, but it can be used to force the hand of the scum, especially if the teleporter is someone who would otherwise be a potential lynch target.

[Kairyuu]

Someone from universe one should probably quote that there too so that everyone is sure to see it.

[Kairyuu]

@Nicodemus: That's exactly the broken situation I pointed out via PM to the mod pre-game. The solution was that the selection of the new teleporter if the old one was killed or teleported now occurs BEFORE the mafia kill, meaning if the teleporter is killed by the mafia, the replacement will not be chosen until the next Night phase begins, and we will go an entire Day phase without knowing who the next will be (and therefore we cannot have them claim).

The semi-break involved that plus a mason claim guarenteeing us a minimum of 2 confirmed townies per game every single game day, with the number being impossible for the scum to reduce, while at the same time having the potential to increase if the scum chose not to kill a confirmed any given Night (and for the same reason, once a higher number of confirmed townies would exist it would be impossible to bring it back to the original 2).

[Kairyuu]

Unfortunately the 2 pulls for one teleport rule pretty much makes that impossible to implement successfully. Especially since odd Night teleports are guarenteed to fail (meaning they're not counted for the ratio) due to the fact that the teleporters will be killed to prevent confirmed townies. Besides, if we implement that, then Universe 1 will have no reason not to implement it themselves, leading to us just tossing scummy players back and forth between games with no real gain.

[Kairyuu]

I apparently don't know how to read. It's 2 teleports for 1 pull. I was also under the impression that the scumteam was a joint team with a kill per universe, so in that case the even Night trades could be potentially beneficial to us. This plan should also be implemented on both sides.

[Kairyuu]

vote: Jack

/sigh

I dislike it when town follows scum when they shoot down an optimal plan. At least he was blatantly obvious about it.

[Kairyuu]

Damn stupid backslash key not working.

vote: Jack

[Kairyuu]

Why thank you Mr. Blatant OMGUS. I'm quite happy with my vote.

@Ellibereth: Please note that my plan involves both the confirming and the mixing for optimal effectiveness, while Jack does not want to deal with the fact that he would be contending against confirmed townies that he'd be forced to kill to keep from multiplying.

[Kairyuu]

@DocPotter: First of all, with my plan we'd be "mixing" every other Night, not every 3rd as you suggest. Pulling is not even important to the idea of using the teleporter as a pseudo-vig that seems to be the general consensus here also.

Secondly, the mixing plan is the one that has the potential for little net gain. If we successfully make it so that there are scum in each game, the likelyhood is that either the scum will continue to kill in their original universe (or whatever one they have more members in) or that we'd be dealing with 2 kills/Night in one universe, and that we could potentially have the scum teleporter use its ability as a second kill from one team. All that just to give the POTENTIAL of a crosskill. Excuse me if I find that a little stupid. I'll bow to the will of the town on this one, but my preference is for my original plan, with the one altered to allow mixing as an alternative if it's still refused.

[Kairyuu]

For clarification: Using the teleporters as pseudo-vigs will lead to the obvious conclusion that universe 1 will do the same (potentially by giving us our problems right back).

In addition, if we coordinate Nights as I suggested, then we should not have the problem of one teleporter getting killed off before the other can target them, since when the submissions are entered both will be valid targets (considering no deaths will have happened yet).

[Kairyuu]

@Doc: Now I'm not quite sure if you're deliberately ignoring the positives of my plan and the negatives of your own, if you've decided that I'm an easy target, or if you're actually failing to comprehend my words. Which is it?

The mafia have no reason to kill off anyone who is teleported for the simple fact that they know the town will likely lynch those players for their actions in the other universe. As such, teleported townies will be prime mislynch fodder, and teleported scum will not hurt the "home" scumteam by dying. In addition to that, the game where each faction has the most members is almost definitely going to be the game that they kill in. For that reason, unless we manage to send 2 of our scum over there (or get stuck with 2 of the universe 1 scum), there will be no "second kill" to indicate whether or not there are any scum among the teleported.

For this reason it is FAR more likely that the number of teleported players will have become too large for the "home" towns to deal with by the time anyone thinks of starting to lynch them assuming they hold like you want, and alternately will be perfect myslynch fodder for the "home" scumteam if they DO decide to lynch.

The ONLY time we should think about using the teleporters as vigs is if we have the potential to win the game by doing so. Until then we should simply proceed with my original plan, using the teleporters as a means to force the scumkill, and we should coordinate Nights.

As for your last point, being the teleporter IS more than just a way of getting yourself killed assuming my plan is followed. It gives you confirmed town status for the entirety of the Day, and then at Night it gives you the ability to pass on that confirmed townie status, while remaining confirmed yourself if the scum don't kill you, and you still pass on the confirmed status even if you DO die. It may all but guarentee that you get killed, but at the same time it allows you to provide an excellent benefit to the town as a whole, which, as a townie, you should be perfectly amenable to.

Preview Edit:

1. Doesn't mean anything in terms of my plan. Coordinated Nights are important.
2. Same as 1
3. Same as 1 and 2
4. That would reveal at least one scum, which makes it even BETTER for the town.
5. All that would do is keep the teleporter confirmed and give us another as soon as Night hits, which is a huge boon to the other universe, and no loss to ours, while at the same time hurting the scumteam that wasted the teleport.
6. Since this is an open game that would cause a 1-1, which would guarentee a dead scum. Also a huge benefit to us.

All of your points are either negligible or would actually HELP the town.

[Kairyuu]

Fuck it. I've not got close to enough support to attempt to force this through, so I'm gonna shut up about my strategy now. If at any point the people bashing it decide to actually read what I'm saying instead of simply repeating themselves (talking to you Doc) then let me know and we can try to work something out with universe one. Until then normal gameplay will be substituted for theory. By which I mean my vote will stay on Jack-scum.

@Universe 1(assuming someone over there wants to quote this so everyone can see it): Gayle's attempt to extend the rvs is scummy as hell. You should lynch her for it.

[Kairyuu]

See that's exactly why it's a bad idea. We either coordinate Nights or work completely independently. No other solution will help in the long run.

[Kairyuu]

I agree with your second two (surprisingly enough, in the case of ani), but Jack-scum is a good lynch.

[Kairyuu]

Didn't notice I was ninja-ed. My last post was RE: Elli's last one.

[Kairyuu]

Yeah 119 obviously isn't what I meant. I'm having trouble with the page.

I agree with whoever wrote this on the other page: crosskills are going to be key. Keep sending our scummy players back and forth and the existing scumgroups will have to keep deciding what to do with them, probably choosing to kill most of them without us having to do anything or losing our towniest players.

ugh. Don't you get it? The likelihood of a crosskill in a game like this is EXTRAORDINARILY LOW. To the point where it's more dangerous to attempt to make it happen then it would be to treat this like a mountainous and go without using any teleports.

[Kairyuu]

My case on you is based on the method with which you discounted the very idea of my strategy (which you're still doing now), as well as the OMGUS vote. I see no better cases, do you?

[Kairyuu]

Dunno how the hell I missed this when I skimmed the other game, but this is important:

Some theory about this game:

The best use of a teleport is obvious. We get the scum into the other universe.

The best use of a pull is slightly less obvious. If we go into night at a time not exactly the same as the other universe, then if their teleporter is confident that ours will pull him - and that he wants to be pulled - their teleporter can claim. The next day, we have an extra clear.
If their teleporter isn't confident of this, he won't claim, and all we can do is get their most townie/useful looking player over here.

That first use of a pull is easily the strongest of all of those - it gets us a confirmed inno for a day (and so also forces the scum's hand the next night). It also becomes much more powerful later in the game, when a clear or three matters a lot more.

So, I suggest we (ie the town teleporter) adopt a strategy of Teleport, Teleport, Pull, Pull. If the scum don't manage to kill the teleporter on night 3, and our town is a friendly enough place for the other teleporter to want to be here (and clear), we will have clears on days 4 and 5, which could be very important. If this isn't the case, we lose very little.

This may look like it screws over the other town, but actually it doesn't - we can both implement this strategy. There are two important times to have teleporters in this strategy: at night, and when the other town is going into night. If our nights don't overlap, both towns will have teleporters at both these times.

There are some unknowns here, obviously; scum may kill a teleporter, teleport someone one way or the other, we may or may not lynch scum, etc. But AFAIC, this strategy has the potential to do us a lot of good, and won't do us any harm.

I don't think there's a good argument for guiding the teleports.

This plan is better than mine. I propose it is adopted. It does not require coordination of Nights, and benefits both towns equally.

[Kairyuu]

@Raskol in the other universe:

Fishy's plan can be adopted so long as it isn't used by only one town to screw the other over. Honestly I think it's a better idea to just send over whoever you feel like on the teleportation Nights, and pull the other side's teleporter on pulling Nights, but it's unlikely that many people will agree with that, given that just about everyone who isn't for my plan is for screwing the other town over (and their own town as well because of the fact that they can do it too).

[Kairyuu]

My case on you is based on the method with which you discounted the very idea of my strategy (which you're still doing now), as well as the OMGUS vote. I see no better cases, do you?

Yes. The method in which I "discounted the very idea of your strategy", aka I say that teleporter's won't want to claim and it's boring if they did. You think this is suspicious, I gather, because mafia might be motivated to step in and derail your plan. But since your plan is unworkable, why would I need to step in and derail it? This is what I just said in the last post btw.

Do you consider retaliation votes to be a scumtell?

Is your case on me just a "there isn't anything better at the moment" case?

See the problem is that it isn't unworkable. It would just require teamwork between the towns. Also, "because it's boring" and "unworkable" are two very different things. I see you've realized that the flippant attitude you originally adopted to blow off my idea was a bad move. Good for you. Keep working on that.

And yes, OMGUS is scummy.

Finally, if there isn't anything better at the moment, that means it's the best lynch available. If there was someone I considered a better lynch than you, I'd change my vote, but either way, my vote means I'm helping to lynch you.

@Doc: If the Push:Push:Pull:Pull is then followed with Push:Push then there's no reason why it shouldn't be allowed.

[Kairyuu]

Ugh.

@Mod:

I request that that rule be amended. It essentially forces the cycle to stay exactly the same once the first pull is used (Eg: Once P:T:T is used, it MUST be followed with P:T:T or the ratio will be broken, and the scum will be able to predict exactly when they can use their own teleport to maximize the damage). Otherwise it's impossible to keep the ratio. The ability to make it unpredictable is kinda crucial.

[Kairyuu]

Well fuck. That kinda makes any plan we've made so far rather unfeasible without modification.

@all (Both towns, so someone please quote): If we decide to go with fishy's plan, 5th Day will probably be the most important Day to have the confirmed townie, so I propose a P:T:T sequence for both towns. It means we essentially waste our first pull on the first Night so as to not narrow it down by much, but in all likelyhood D5 will be endgame or close to it, so a pull at that point may mean the difference between winning and losing (also, waiting any longer to use the first pull and we might not even get to USE our second).

[Kairyuu]

@pops(other universe): I made the request because the rule as it stands makes little sense and gives the scum more power in a game they already have craptons of power in. I respect the mod's decision, but I feel I was not out of line to make the request.

@Jack: It is better because it allows for the pulling of CONFIRMED townies WHENEVER POSSIBLE, which you absolutely refuse to acknowledge. In addition, my personal revision is that we DON'T try to use the teleporter as a vig unless doing so has a chance of ending the game.

As for the scum being on different teams, STOP REPEATING THIS WHEN I'VE ADDRESSED IT TWICE. Crosskilling is statistically improbable even in a game where both killing factions MUST kill in the same game. Giving the possibility of killing between 2 games, the likelihood of both scumteams targeting the same universe AND/OR of one scumteam hitting a member of the other is astronomically low. The fact that your plan literally relies on that happening instead of the scumteams simply assuring that they won't hit each other and decimating a town together, or just ignoring the fact that they've lost a member until they can win by pulling said member back, both of which are more likely, shows that you've either not thought about your plan AT ALL or you're deliberately trying to hurt the town.

For the OMGUS point, the gut reaction when scum is suspected is "Oh shit I've gotta turn this around on him/her before he/she gathers support." If the scum is not thinking properly, this will often lead to "revenge" voting, aka OMGUS.

Here's the thing on your last point that you blatantly ignored. When I'm voting someone, I want them lynched. I don't care if my case is one point or a step-by-step analysis of everything they've said, I still want them dead. If my read changes, or someone else steps up as being more scummy, then I'll move the vote, but as it stands the best case around is you, and that's why you have my vote. I haven't conceded shit. Trying to argue semantics isn't going to get you anywhere with me.

Die scum die.

[Kairyuu]

@both universes(please quote): Teleporters should NOT claim now if we're going with this plan, and synchronized Night's actually ruin the plan. If the teleporters both claim now, then when one game goes to Night, that game's teleporter will be killed while grabbing the other one. It will be more beneficial to the town that lynches first, but will completely screw the second town to lynch out of their confirmed townie. Instead, the town that lynches second should wait until the first town goes to Night before claiming. Then they will be pulled over. Then, the second town should wait until the first town leaves Night . . . fuck. This plan doesn't actually work unless the two towns are on a different teleportation schedule. In that case, the first town to lynch should function on a P:T:T sequence, and the second should function on a T:P:T sequence, or a No action:P:T:T sequence (first is preferred). It should work out in the end. The only risk is that the second game ends before the second pull is used, but it's the only way to make this actually feasible.

[Kairyuu]

Heh. That emoticon should be T : P : T

[Kairyuu]

@pops(other universe): That is exactly the same idea that fishy yelled at our universe for suggesting. If you guys attempt to lynch rapidly then we can just follow suit, leading to no net gain and a huge net loss. Besides that, every time you guys send us a scummy player without getting a player in return it reduces the total number of players in your game, bringing you closer to losing assuming you haven't teleported/lynched correctly. If the two towns keep the Days and Nights on the same basic cycle (aka neither gets more than half a cycle ahead of the other) then the games will have the same number of players on average, reducing the risk of accidentally screwing your game over by removing too many players. In other words, your idea hurts your town too.

[Kairyuu]

@Nicodemus(love the name btw .. it's what I named my pet rat when I was a kid): Unfortunately, the cycle doesn't repeat until D5 and D6 (N4 and N5), but you're right with everything else.

As for the teleportations, I say we leave that up to whoever is the teleporter at the time. Personally, I think we should leave that up to the teleporter, so that we don't have to argue about it, but it seems the consensus is to send scummy people (which, of course, means we'll be getting Universe 1's scummy people, creating a loop of pointlessness, but I digress).

[Kairyuu]

@Fishy(other universe): Wait, what?

-rechecks-

Wtf? When did that get there. Contacting mod. Standby.

[Kairyuu]

@all(both universes, please quote): Please note that if the current order of actions is actually correct, the strategy may not actually work. Calculating now.

N1(U1): Pull
N1(U2): No action
N2(U1): Teleport
N2(U2): Pull
N3(U1): No action
N3(U2): Teleport
N4(U1): Teleport
N4(U2): Teleport
N5(U1): Pull
N5(U1): No action
N6(U1): Teleport
N6(U2): Pull

Assuming we continue to alternate Nights, the first pulls will happen N1 and N2 respectively, and the second will happen N5 and N6 respectively. I don't see the games reaching 7 Days. -Calculates- Yep, it's physically impossible to reach D7 without a scum win due to the "daykill" teleportation tactic.

New possibility calculation, alternating which game hits Night first:

N1(U1): Pull
N1(U2): No action
N2(U2): Pull
N2(U1): No action
N3(U1): Teleport
N3(U2): Teleport
N4(U2): Teleport
N4(U1): Teleport
N5(U1): Pull
N5(U2): No action
N6(U2): Pull
N6(U1): No action

Yup. looks to me like it's physically impossible to implement the current plan with this new revelation regarding the rules. I'm currently attemptint to clarify something with the mod that may rectify this problem.

An alternate plan suggestion is to simply play as normal until the Day before a potential Lylo situation, and implement the plan then. However, unless No action is chosen every Night until then, we won't be able to predict when this will occur and react properly. For that reason, it isn't advisable to pursue that plan.

[Kairyuu]

Day 1 Vote Count

animorpherv1 ( 0 )
Anon ( 0 )
DeathRowKitty ( 0 )
DocPotter ( 2 ) DeathRowKitty Jack
don_johnson ( 0 )
Ellibereth ( 0 )
Elmo ( 0 )
fhqwhads ( 0 )
Jack ( 3 ) Kairyuu Lowell Anon
Jahudo ( 1 ) Maelyn
Kairyuu ( 0 )
Kise ( 0 )
Lowell ( 0 )
Maelyn ( 4 ) Jahudo Ellibereth animorpherv1 Nicodemus
Nicodemus ( 0 )
Not Voting ( 5 ) don_johnson Elmo fhqwhads Kise DocPotter
Total ( 15 )

With 15 alive, 8 needed to lynch.
Deadline: 2/8 11am

@fhqwhgads: Do you mind if I don't address the coordinated Nights point, since it's been dropped by now?

As for the unpredictability, the point is that if we are able to fluctuate our teleports and pulls we are not as susceptible to being hit by what would essentially be a triple kill to end the game (mafia kill + mafia teleport + town teleport). If the scum know exactly which Days we MUST teleport in order to retain the ratio, they can optimize their own teleportation for maximum damage.

And the crosskilling is the only important issue with the mixing of scum. A mafia faction is going to completely ignore an opposing faction so long as they are under the impression that they have more members. For example, Let's say this universe gets screwed over and ends up with a Lylo of 3 mafia 2 members, 2 mafia 1 members, and 2 townies. The mafia 2 wins regardless of whether the lynch is on a townie or a mafia 1 member. In addition to that, each mafia will rationally use their kill in the universe where they have the best chance of winning. There is potential for the situation in Universe 1 to be even worse than in universe 2 in the above situation (a town win already being pretty much the only case). In any other situation the logical choice would be to cut their losses and use their kill on universe 1, since the BEST they can hope for is a draw (mafia 2 kills town, mafia 1 kills mafia 2), and any other situation gives mafia 2 the win in this universe. Keep in mind, that is the absolute worst case scenerio for all parties involved other than somehow having all 6 scum in one game, which is nigh impossible, and puts the town into a nearly unwinnable situation anyway as soon as it occurs.

tl;dr: assuming scum to be rational they will cut ties with members not in the universe they have the best chance to win in, treating them as dead unless the opportunity arises to win by pulling them back. It isn't the most "team-like" solution, but it is the most efficient, and therefore most logical. This is why crosskills are not an issue, and this is why the chances that the scum will treat each other as threats are extremely low.

addendum: This logic goes out the window in one situation, and one situation only. If one game ends and there is at least one member of each scum faction remaining in the other town, the scum faction with less surviving members will attempt to kill off the other scum team. The larger scum team could go either way. If they fear being killed then they will follow suit and hunt the smaller team, but if they are close enough to winning they will continue to ignore said other team, as unless there are no more players from the smaller team's source game remaining when the smaller team is eliminated, all remaining members will be instantly confirmed town upon the last scum flips from one of the teams.

[Kairyuu]

@Doc: OK. Let's run through the possible continuations of that situation then, to show why the situation doesn't change.

Worst case scenerio for mafia 2, starting from the point they would normally "win," that is, a Day beginning where the two teams both shoot the last townie:

DX: 3 mafia 2 vs 2 mafia 1 (mafia 2 force-lynch mafia 1)
NX: 3 mafia 2 vs 1 mafia 1 (crosskill)
DX+1: 2 mafia 2 (mafia 2 wins)

I assume that the "and nothing can prevent the same" clause is missing simply due to a slight oversight by the mod, considering that having your mafia faction become a majority literally makes it physically impossible to lose, even if up against another killing faction, as you have 2 kills to their 1.

My point stands.

[Kairyuu]

Day 1 Vote Count

animorpherv1 ( 0 )
Anon ( 0 )
DeathRowKitty ( 1 ) Nicodemus
DocPotter ( 1 ) Lowell
don_johnson ( 0 )
Ellibereth ( 0 )
Elmo ( 0 )
fhqwhads ( 0 )
Jack ( 2 ) Kairyuu Anon
Jahudo ( 0 )
Kairyuu ( 1 ) DocPotter
Kise ( 0 )
Lowell ( 1 ) DeathRowKitty
Maelyn ( 3 ) Jahudo Ellibereth animorpherv1
Nicodemus ( 1 ) Jack
Not Voting ( 5 ) don_johnson Elmo fhqwhads Kise Maelyn
Total ( 15 )

With 15 alive, 8 needed to lynch.
Deadline: 2/8 11am

V/LA until friday.

[Kairyuu]

@Starbuck: Not sure if I answered it, though the rest of my posts make my stance on it pretty clear. If that isn't enough, a direct answer is this:

While the other plan does allow the potential for us to win in fewer Days, it also relies on the idea that the other town would not react negatively to us attempting to screw them over. Simply based on rational play, if we adopted a plan that would lower the opposing town's chance of winning, they would adopt a similar plan to lower ours. That type of play benefits no one but the scum.

My vote on Jack stands, and I agree with pretty much everything Elmo said.

[Kairyuu]

Day 1 Vote Count

animorpherv1 ( 0 )
Anon ( 0 )
DeathRowKitty ( 1 ) Nicodemus
DocPotter ( 1 ) Lowell
Starbuck ( 0 )
Ellibereth ( 1 ) Anon
Elmo ( 0 )
fhqwhads ( 1 ) Jack
Jack ( 3 ) Kairyuu Elmo Starbuck
Jahudo ( 0 )
Kairyuu ( 1 ) DocPotter
Kise ( 0 )
Lowell ( 1 ) DeathRowKitty
Maelyn ( 2 ) Jahudo Ellibereth
Nicodemus ( 0 )
Not Voting ( 4 ) fhqwhads Kise Maelyn animorpherv1
Total ( 15 )

With 15 alive, 8 needed to lynch.
Deadline: 2/8 11am

@Doc: Remember the note in my signup about sending him a PM? That was when it was brought up. The issue was corrected before the game started (before role PMs went out).

@all: I'm taking a few days off from pretty much everything due to some personal issues, which may or may not involve travelling. If you want me replaced for it then go ahead. Mafia isn't really a top priority for me right now.