Mini 197- Points Mafia; Game over!

[CoolBot]

I'm leaning toward Stewie.

Why is that?

[MeMe]

Quite a few reasons.

His "we did have two kills last night" comment still just feels

wrong

to me. I think his explanation is the best one he could've given, but who calls two nights ago "last night"?

And I didn't like his responses to my post about why no-lynch is a bad idea given the claims. He said "why can't he be killed" about Yggdrasil...which I think was quite clear & that if I'm mafia "we pretty much have to lynch you right now or we lose" -- which only reiterates the point I made myself.

Also, he had you claiming first when I think you should've been at the bottom of his list today since he blocked you.

I know he's offered explanations for all of the above but, for me, it's a decision between Stewie and Yggdrasil-replacement today and Stewie's the one I've got the most concern about.

Why are you leaning toward Ygg? I'll give you mid-posts so you can get complete thoughts out.

[CoolBot]

Pushing Sk theory...

[MeMe]

mid-post

[CoolBot]

Tried railroading me...

[MeMe]

I'm guessing you're referring to the "defending Phoebus" posts.

[CoolBot]

Yes. Sublities hard.

[MeMe]

mmm...is that part of the case against Yggdrasil or just a comment on your restriction? If it's regarding the restriction, don't bother to address. If it's about Ygg, I don't follow.

[CoolBot]

just a comment on your restriction

I was going to buy backup doc last night, but I didn't have time as night was very short.

Makes little sense.

[MeMe]

Do you have more?

[CoolBot]

Pretty much it.

[MeMe]

I'm eager to hear Stewie's and Yggdrasil-replacement's thoughts on what's been said today.

[Stewie]

I agree that Coolbot should not be considered for lynching today.

Today I'm leaning towards MeMe. If she's telling the truth about her not being able to die at night, then we have to get her right now, unless we lynch ygg in which case I can block her. If she's not, we may be more screwed than what we think.

Furthermore, MeMe started a bandwagon on Nai day one, and Ygg followed. Note that Nai did not vote for MeMe, but voted for Ygg instead. I figure a newbie would not vote for his partner, and would instead go at the next person.

I'm not completly convinced - it's actually a close call - but I think it's safer to go for MeMe.

To sumarize, the order in which I would prefer lynching people this day is:

MeMe
Ygg
CoolBot

[MeMe]

Today I'm leaning towards MeMe. If she's telling the truth about her not being able to die at night, then we have to get her right now, unless we lynch ygg in which case I can block her. If she's not, we may be more screwed than what we think.

Erm, Stewie? You seem to have forgotten the possibility that I'm telling the truth about everything, in which case I shouldn't be lynched at all. Of course, scum will be

quite

interested in lynching me since they now know it's the only way to win since I won't die & I can protect someone else. You were interested in hearing CoolBot's results but seem to be ignoring that they confirm my claim of staying in.

I'll do the analysis for Stewie (pretending I'm him & innocent) since he seems unwilling to do it himself: if Stewie's innocent, that means either Yggdrasil or MeMe is Thesp's killer.

--If Yggdrasil's scum he's likely telling the truth about purchasing one-shot vigilante (which, according to the front page, doesn't seem to be disallowed for mafia) since Stewie had yet to claim and could have been a role cop.

--If MeMe's scum, she's likely telling the truth about being unkillable at night & a doctor since both Ygg & Stewie had yet to claim and could have been role cops.

Looking at both of the above, Yggdrasil (if scum) would be the bigger threat as he, conceivably, has two opportunities to kill at night. Stewie, have you asked armlx what your block does? I mean, in Stewie's shoes I would've PM'd armlx by now to find out if two actions are taken care of by one block or if a single block only takes care of a single kill (as a doctor protect does). Have you, Stewie? No matter, I will.

armlx

:
--Does a block completely disable a player even if he has more than one action that night?
--Can scum purchase one-shot vigilante?

[Yggdrasil]

Aloha from Hawaii everyone. Since I've technically not been replaced yet, I hope I can still help answer some questions.

First, about CoolBot's subtleties comment, I always look for people subtlely defending others. I think most good mafia will try to defend their partners in ways that are not obvious, so I look for subtle defenses. I was not trying to railroad you, just posting my thoughts on who I thought was suspicious. About the buying backup doc part, I thought it was possible that Thesp may have been a doctor, so I was going to try my chances at getting a good pro-town role. I don't know what he meant by the "pushing SK theory" comment, but I'll try to answer if he can clarify and if I get online sometime soon.

MeMe, if it changes anything, I bought one-shot vig today, so I would have shown up as townsperson or as having no abilities last night.

As for the lynch today, I'm leaning toward Stewie. I think its plausible that he's mafia, and I think his relative silence and reluctance to post any strong accusations against people early in the game can also be interpreted as traits of an SK.

Anyway, here's something to think about also:

Mr. Stoofer - Town (Axed night 1)
Someone - Town (Shot Night 2)
SpeedyKQ- Town (Shot Night 3)
Nai- Mafia (Minced Night 3)
Thesp- Town (Blown Up Night 4)

Could the method of death be indicative of who is the killer? I think it's plausible that the mafia shoot people, while the SK kills by random methods. If so, then that means an SK killed Thesp, which excludes MeMe from being last night's killer (since we know she didn't go out night 3, so she couldn't have been Nai's killer).

[Yggdrasil]

Also, it is possible that MeMe is anti-town, if she is mafia and Nai was the mafia's killer on night 3. However, that's unlikely and CB's investigation clears her from being SK, so I think she is almost 100% cleared.

Also, in case it's not cleared, I should still be replaced as I will not be able to contribute regularly to the discussion.

[MeMe]

And in case my all that wasn't clear, I still think Stewie's scummier than Yggdrasil...but I was trying to show that, from Stewie's perspective (if town), Yggdrasil's claims are the bigger threat, but he's portraying "unkillable" as the more dangerous claim and ignoring the fact that I'm a doctor altogether.

(and I'm just seeing Ygg's post in preview)

Yggdrasil, yes -- if you're telling the truth about the timing of your purchase, it does change things somewhat. It means that you didn't even have to admit to having one-shot vigilante today as you'd have known an investigator couldn't have seen it.

[armlx]

Meme:

Roleblocking knocks the person out for the night. No night actions at all.

1 shot vig is not restricted on the front page, so the mafia could buy it.

[CoolBot]

I don't know what he meant by the "pushing SK theory" comment

SK existance unlikely.

[MeMe]

Wow. Blocker's strong and we know for a fact that Stewie is a blocker through CoolBot's claim.

CoolBot -- I think that Stewie's actions show that he, too, has been pushing the SK theory today. His whole excuse for putting you forth as the first claimant was that he felt it imperative to find out whether or not you were a second killer (though I think it more probable that the intent was to discover what ability you'd purchased as a result of your high-point-value restriction).

Do you still find Yggdrasil more suspicious than Stewie? At this point, I'm not persuaded that Yggdrasil's a better choice than Stewie today...and I'm wondering if Stewie will change his mind about lynching me now that he knows he can completely disable both of my protections with his block.

That

will be telling.

[CoolBot]

Do you still find Yggdrasil more suspicious than Stewie?

Now, only slightly.

[MeMe]

mid-post (in case you're not done)

[Stewie]

Also, it is possible that MeMe is anti-town, if she is mafia and Nai was the mafia's killer on night 3. However, that's unlikely and CB's investigation clears her from being SK, so I think she is almost 100% cleared.

Although I understand why her investigation clears her, I would think that mafia and sk (if any) alike would get some kind of reward (in the form of points) for skipping a kill. However, right now I doubt anyone is a sk (but I am still open to the possibility).

(though I think it more probable that the intent was to discover what ability you'd purchased as a result of your high-point-value restriction).

That makes little sense. You have also taken a high value restriction, so if I really was trying to find out abilities, I might aswell go for you. In fact, I would be better off going for you, because I know that you also won a bunch of points for correcting the mod.

Looking at both of the above, Yggdrasil (if scum) would be the bigger threat as he, conceivably, has two opportunities to kill at night. Stewie, have you asked armlx what your block does? I mean, in Stewie's shoes I would've PM'd armlx by now to find out if two actions are taken care of by one block or if a single block only takes care of a single kill (as a doctor protect does).

I figured that I would block one action because we could only use one action each night. I suppose I was wrong, but it doesn't make a difference, since I still block all actions.

This does change things quite a bit, specially since Ygg keeps insisting that I did not participate much, when by just reviewing his posts you can see that he didn't say much himself.

[MeMe]

I've been thinking about this all day, bear with me.

If we have only one killer left and we incorrectly lynch Yggdrasil

--Stewie could be the killer. He would block me and kill CoolBot and we'd be in a draw tomorrow.
--I could be the killer. Stewie would block me and we'd be in a three-way tomorrow.

If we have only one killer left and we incorrectly lynch Stewie

--I could be the killer. Yggdrasil can't kill me and I'd kill Yggdrasil & win outright.
--Yggdrasil could be the killer. He would kill CoolBot and we'd be in a draw tomorrow.

If we have only one killer left and you incorrectly lynch me

--Stewie could be the killer. He'll block Yggdrasil and kill who he wants and win outright.
--Yggdrasil could be the killer. In which case he gets caught tomorrow because Stewie should block him.

Basically, when I look at the above, the "incorrect" lynch that gives us the biggest chance of winning the game is Yggdrasil's. Yes, I still think Stewie's scummier...but the more I think about the game as a whole (not just today's posts), the more I worry I'm wrong.

[MeMe]

Oh forget that. It seemed so clear in my mind, but looking at it on the page I'm wondering why one seemed more logical than the other. I had some kind of epiphany earlier, but I seem to have lost it.