Open 193 - Friends and Enemies: It's over!

[xRECKONERx]

Update - just got all my stuff moved in off the truck, and my room looks like quite the clusterfuck. Hopefully I'll be back in this game by tomorrow night.

[Ojanen]

I'm trying to catch up now. Unfortunately still super busy. Neeeed to master something or die.

Also, fuck it with the uncertainty.
I do not currently think Reck is scum.
I think he looks reeeeally inconsistent but I do not want to lynch him in the mindset I am right now. I just think we are more likely lynching bad play from town than scum. I wasn't kidding with my last waffle though (thanks for pointing out the obvious, which I also admitted in posting it, Serial). It's a totally flickering read.
I don't get what is so unbearably scummy about pushing the PCE wagon instead of the charlatan-town's wagon, definitely wasn't "dancing around any lynch he could get" since joining charlatan tunnelers was about as easy as it could have gotten in the first place and he switched when any other lynch than charlatan's seemed impossible anyway.
so that comment from VP and stuff like this

And now for Reck. I think you guys have done a lot of the relevant dissecting, but I still want to say how I don't like that his 432 scumlist is the biggest wagon and two lurkers – seems like a pretty easy way to take any wagon that pops up.
And sure enough, a PCE wagon pops up and he takes it.

I just really don't find accurate.
I think VP's case has other mischaracterizations too, btw, like describing the PCE vote as a switch, I don't think answering "you are" to VP's question of who is scum and not elaborating on others is a scumtell when actually in the rundown list VP also quoted he had indeed always had the others as town or neutral. I mostly don't like the shenanigans of reck's wagon.
And blah blah blah.
Gah. This post is junk but I don't like a Reck lynch right now.
I also think the Albert case is very weak on scum motivation front, more so than the Reck one, but need to iso him, not feeling up to date. (yay another waffle for Serial.)
Dunno what is up with me. Maybe I should eat more raw meat.

also,

unvote

Will post more soon.
With actual suspects, you know.
I have an inclination to look very carefully at some of the big boys (Vi, VP, Serial etc.) but blah.
Just snowed in and mind-numbingly stressed atm.

[Sando]

Hyper-sensitivity to non-existant pressure alert!

How am I being hyper-sensitive? It's been happening a fair bit, and oh look, it happened again in the very next post after yours:

If I had been here from the start and had the accumulated political capital of a day of play this would probably be a vote for Sando

He thinks I'm scum, he actually thinks I'm the scummiest person in the game, yet doesn't vote me. How is it non-existant?

Hito, so you're happy with a ABR/DDD/Sando/Reck (in no particular order) lynch today? And your vote on ABR is because of? From what I can see it's so you can get a read on VPB who you're undecided on, who's reasoning you like on an ABR vote?

[VP Baltar]

@sando-I don't think many people are seriously considering you for a lynch at this point, which is what I mean by non-existent pressure. I think Vi would be up for your lynch and possibly hito. Other than that, there has been some skirting about but nothing that seems very serious to me.

@Oj-To me, your post basically translates to: "I don't know what to do right now, nor do I have any sense of direction for the future"...which doesn't exactly give me the warm and fuzzies. I realize you're essentially admitting this, but what is the point in posting that if it's all you have to say?

[Ojanen]

@VP: I said where I'm inclined to look, and I said that I currently think the hounded Reck is poor-playing town and that is the wrong way, which is not the non-stance you are describing, and you nicely ignored all I considered bad in your case. I'll be here soon. Looks like I'm staying up the night.

[Ojanen]

In fact,

vote: VP

I still like him clearly least on the long-term charlatan wagoners. I was stupid to move on on D1. Of course there

could

be like all 5 towns pushing and voting on a town wagon with scum having a deliberate tactic of all scum staying out but I just don't find it all that likely, and he stands out from that subset. His vote was the one from the long-term ones that stuck out as reactive as I elaborated on D1. He seems to be reactive towards emerging wagons on the whole too. It surprised me utterly that apparently according to hito he's one of the top posters, yet I have a complete feel of lack of initiative regards to his targets. I can see this with charlatan wagon, I can see this with the Reck support, he goes to Albert after Serial etc.

This argument was used to great effect on D1

Hey people on the PCE wagon, if charlatan is town who is scum on his wagon? Given that he seems to be on the edge of being lynched for forever, I'm going to assume you think there is a large concentration of scum on his wagon that just can't get it over the edge, so enlighten me.

Yes, you're right, scum typically avoid getting a mislynch. This quote is also implying that you think the people on the PCE wagon are scummier....so I guess you think that the scum would rather try and bus their buddy (in your eyes) than to get a mislynch on charlatan

and the conclusion on D2 was this

I was right about charlatan. I obviously don't have the time to wait an extra month on a mod who refuses to provide a deadline, so I voted him out since Vi-Amished-VP-SC-Zorblag were so damn stubborn about it.

Quick, let me get this out there before people question me about it after I was the one being so fucking stubborn and providing no reasoning yesterday.

and this

Really has been a lot of words today without a lot being said I feel. I'm inclined toward Reckoner being scum here. He has been dancing around lynches this game. I need to do an iso first though since my V/LA has put me a bit on the outside of this game now.

so shrug, I guess the charlatan wagon just was all town on town for the bulk of the day and Reck who was intensely badgered about not being on it is the scumz who switched on.
Reck is a juicy easy target in this game if he's town.
This might sound weak but I'm not a fan of his turn of phrase either here, btw, he has in effect already decided Reck is scum. Yet needs to do an iso for justification ie looking good. No way to land on anyone else if looking at one person only.
And I think his Reck case is filled with inaccuracies.
And I just feel baaaad about him.

[VP Baltar]

This might sound weak but I'm not a fan of his turn of phrase either here, btw, he has in effect already decided Reck is scum. Yet needs to do an iso for justification ie looking good. No way to land on anyone else if looking at one person only.

Except you skip the whole part where I wasn't fond of Reckoner on Day 1. Also your argument that there is a "lack of initiative" in my targets is funny considering I'm the only person who made a case on Reckoner today and yesterday I spent a very good portion of the day outlining my reasons on charlatan.

I don't understand what point you are trying to convey in the quotes you chose. I don't understand where there is a "lack of initiative" in them, but I suppose it sounds good when you have nothing else.

Reck is a juicy easy target in this game if he's town.

Translation: "I still have a foot in both camps, but the Reckoner wagon seems to have become less popular now."

And I think his Reck case is filled with inaccuracies. And I just feel baaaad about him.

How vague.

And the reason I didn't address your points earlier is because they're highly illogical and without good foundation, but let's look at them anyhow if you'd like.

I don't get what is so unbearably scummy about pushing the PCE wagon instead of the charlatan-town's wagon, definitely wasn't "dancing around any lynch he could get" since joining charlatan tunnelers was about as easy as it could have gotten in the first place and he switched when any other lynch than charlatan's seemed impossible anyway.

So, you don't see any scummy motivation to support both of the leading wagons for very little reason and yet be unexplainably hesitant to join the eventual mislynch of someone who is apparently your top target? In the words of Mr. Clergyman, that is rubbish.

I think VP's case has other mischaracterizations too, btw, like describing the PCE vote as a switch, I don't think answering "you are" to VP's question of who is scum and not elaborating on others is a scumtell when actually in the rundown list VP also quoted he had indeed always had the others as town or neutral.

I don't even understand what you are really saying. I think I need you to rephrase this. Mostly this reads to me as you saying, "VPs points were XYZ and those are mischaracterizations", but there is no real explanation as to WHY you feel that way.

I also think the Albert case is very weak on scum motivation front, more so than the Reck one, but need to iso him, not feeling up to date. (yay another waffle for Serial.)

More vague non-sense. And again, how you don't see scum motivation for ABR changing his positions left and right with no explanation as wagons shift is beyond me. The fact that ABR won't answer when he actually started to find Reckoner scummy (after he has buddied him all game mind you) should be a giant red flashing arrow of scum motivation if you're actually reading the game.

[Head_Honcho]

Votecount:

xRECKONERx(3): Debonair Danny DiPietro, Zorblag, Vi
Vi(1): Sando
Debonair Danny DiPietro(1): xRECKONERx
Albert B. Rampage(3): SerialClergyman, VP Baltar, hitogoroshi
Serial Clergyman(1): Albert B. Rampage
VP Baltar(1): Ojanen

With 10 alive it's 6 to lynch.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Unvote, vote VPB

Yep he's scum alright.

[hitogoroshi]

More certain on VP than Reckoner?

[VP Baltar]

I find there is a "lack of initiative" in your vote ABR.

[Albert B. Rampage]

More certain on VP than Reckoner?

Same.

[xRECKONERx]

Only read this most recent 2 pages - But... I don't think ABR is scum. His blatant vote-hopping seems too scummy to be scum. I know that's a logical fallacy, but it is my belief that a player as experienced as ABR wouldn't be flopping around like so. VPB's anger/frustration with him seems legitimate. Still unsure on Ojanen. Hopefully more to come tonight.

[VP Baltar]

I know that's a logical fallacy, but it is my belief that a player as experienced as ABR wouldn't be flopping around like so.

What do you think is the likelihood that he would play to this exact assumption?

[Sando]

Serial, you seem to be saying that your vote on Reck was to see how ABR reacted, and that he reacted as you expected scum to react (jumping on the wagon). Are you saying this was your plan all along?

ABR, is there anyone you won't blindly follow?

Translation: "I still have a foot in both camps, but the Reckoner wagon seems to have become less popular now."

Umm, when Ojanen says 'Reck looks like a juicy target as town', she's not saying he's scum, how does what you quoted indicate that she either has a foot in both camps or that the wagon is less popular?

[VP Baltar]

Sando, I'm referring to her tacking on the "if he's town" part at the end of that line. If she actually thinks he's an easy target, then I expect her to be taking a definitive stance, ie that Reckoner is town. However, she adds on her little caveat just in case the Reckoner wagon comes back around and she needs to join. ("yes, I thought he was an easy target, but only if he's town. I don't think he's town anymore" or something of that nature).

As far as the wagon being less popular, I think the fact that it has diminished from L-1 to L-3 shows that it's less popular at the moment or at least that people are trying to look elsewhere before settling on that as being the lynch for the day.

[SerialClergyman]

Serial, you seem to be saying that your vote on Reck was to see how ABR reacted, and that he reacted as you expected scum to react (jumping on the wagon). Are you saying this was your plan all along?

No, it wasn't nearly as formulated as that, and it didn't have Albert in mind. I felt that Reck was scummy on gut and I wanted to see if other players were of the same mind. What was surprising was how quickly the wagon got to L-1 from me simply saying 'hey gaiz, lets lynch reck kthx'.

My switch to Albert was made because of the reasons given, it wasn't a premeditated trap.

The case on VP is not bad, and I'm glad to see Ojanen psyching up. I'm sorry I continue to point out when you don't take a position, even if it's obvious, but it's important that you don't get away with it. Besides, we can use your vote if you're scum, you bus-machine

I would like to hear from both Vi and Troll please. Vi on developments and Troll on VP.

[Sando]

Really? You put him to L-3, and you find it surprising you got 2 more votes?

[SerialClergyman]

Usually I write up good reaosns and don't convince anyone. To get two more votes, almost up to his lynch, was odd, yes. Plus that apparantly doens't include VP, who didn't vote him despite writing a case against him (correct me if that's wrong).

[Vi]

ABR: Is SerialClergyman Mafia? (with xRx/VP Baltar?)
Is VP Baltar going to end up like another charlatan?

I do agree that Troll and DDD need to start talking of their own volition - particularly Troll (last post, summary: "I had reasons forthcoming but VP Baltar said them all; carry on").

---

@Ojanen: What do you think of xRx "Sando is defTown"? (684)
I'm a little ish about how you're calling him a "juicy easy target if Town" after IIRC starting the PRETTEH SCUMMEH discussion about his targeting tendencies. How confident are you that xRx is Town?

Do you have any non-VP Baltar suspects in mind?

---

I'm skeptical of the VP Baltar case because I can identify with his thought processes, speaking as someone who had issues with charlatan's charlatanry yesterday, still dislike xRx now, and am presently sorting through issues with ABR. While prior to this post I had a Town read on ABR and I have no problem with how the end of D1 went, his actions following SerialClergyman calling him out seem inconsistent. Pushing on it isn't a waste of time, regardless of what The Man himself might say. (That and I'm tempted to vote him just out of spite.)

VP Baltar: How much experience do you have with ABR?

I'm curious as to what Sando thinks of the VP Baltar/ABR circus.

---

I would like to hear from both Vi and Troll please. Vi on developments and Troll on VP.

Why are you asking for different things from different

species

people?

The case on VP is not bad

Why not?

Do you think xRx was in danger of being lynched? based on your wagon call? Do you disagree with the votes on the wagon?

What are your current thoughts on ABR?

---

Still waiting on xRx to catch up.
Incidentally, how much do you know about ABR, xRx? Based on

His blatant vote-hopping seems too scummy to be scum. I know that's a logical fallacy, but it is my belief that a player as experienced as ABR wouldn't be flopping around like so.

...I'm going to guess "little".

Do you find someone other than DDD scummy? Is DDD still the best place for your vote?

[VP Baltar]

VP Baltar: How much experience do you have with ABR?

I don't have any completed games with him personally beyond Quick and Dirty. While I acknowledge his meta, there comes a point when the BS stops being a cute act and comes across as a deliberate attempt to not participate. I don't think I should have to repeatedly ask a simple question like "when did you first start to find reckoner scummy?" and still never receive an answer, yet be expected by his meta defenders (Oj, troll, et al) to take it as ol' lovable ABR.

I'm interested to hear Troll's take on it.

[xRECKONERx]

I know that's a logical fallacy, but it is my belief that a player as experienced as ABR wouldn't be flopping around like so.

What do you think is the likelihood that he would play to this exact assumption?

Because, ABR doesn't seem the type of player who would risk such an obvious way of getting lynched. If there's a scumteam including him, I think he'd be more than likely NOT be their most expendable player, and his D1 play doesn't fit with scum IMO.

[VP Baltar]

I'll let you answer Vi's questions before I respond Reck.


hito, where are you?

[hitogoroshi]

Hmm? Is there's some specific point aimed at me floating around I'm missing...? I've been checking in once a day here and until/unless the game picks up faster I think that's probably the best pace to provide content without spamming up the thread.

I like this point from Vi a whole lot:

@Ojanen: What do you think of xRx "Sando is defTown"? (684)
I'm a little Confused ish about how you're calling him a "juicy easy target if Town" after IIRC starting the PRETTEH SCUMMEH discussion about his targeting tendencies. How confident are you that xRx is Town?

Do you have any non-VP Baltar suspects in mind?

normally I don't like catch up/summary posts that are mostly questions but these are some exceedingly well placed questions.

A reminder for everyone: while this is called the VP/ABR circus, keep in mind that this all started with ABR's vote on SC, and he is 'certain' Reck and VP are two of our three scum. Also his last two votes were direct OMGUS's to SC and VP. Hey Albert, whatever happened to your SC suspicion?

[xRECKONERx]

Incidentally, how much do you know about ABR, xRx?

I've never played with him before, I just have heard about him a lot, I guess. Hasn't he been around for awhile?