Big Brother Mafia - Town wins!

[pablito]

Llama did say early on...at least while he was up with me...that he was going to do something interesting with his hoh choice. So he knew pretty early that he was going to save hewitt from the coup.

In my mind, the most town are kmd and kast.

Also I'm going to be out most of the afternoon, so don't expect that vote still.

[pablito]

vote: snowbunny

[farside22]

Snow/BV vote count:

Snow (4) Kmd, Hewitt, Crazy, pablito
BV (0)

not voting:


Host:
The votes are in. Snow_Bunny with a vote of 4 to 0 you have been evicted from the Big Brother house.
Please say your goodbyes and get your ass out.

Snow looks to everyone.
"You are so wrong about me. I tried to make friends not take over the game."

With that snow walks out to oblivion.

[Crazy]

Yuck, I was worried about that.

Let's see:

-I assume I look more like a producer than a chenbot at this moment, since it's clear that Llama was bussing ani.

-Kmd is unlikely to be a chenbot due to his interactions with Sly and unlikely to be a producer due to his interactions with Llama. I think it's far more likely he's a chenbot than a producer, but he's probably just town.

-I think bv looks like a producer (mainly because of ani). He also looks like a chenbot because it's suspicious that Sly-scum didn't put him up. I think bv is the scummiest player in the game... so I hope Kmd's tell on him is

really, really

good.

-Hewitt has the distinction of replacing someone that Sly nominated, which makes him unlikely Chenbot. Of course, however, he is a very likely producer due to interactions with Llama.

-Pablito probably isn't a chenbot, either, due to him being the only one that really went after Sir to a large degree. There's not much stopping him from being a producer, though.

-Kast is probably not a producer, considering Llama's bold attacks. Could be a chenbot (which would explain why Sly didn't nominate zwet, either), but I'm not sure.

I also want to try to do a little digging to find out what ongoing game Kmd was talking about, to see what makes bv basically confirmed.

[farside22]

Welcom houseguest. As you know any one of you could be HOH at this time.

The competition is a word game. The person who puts the most words together in the quickest time wins!

Ready

Set

Go!!!


Crazy is trying to unscramble the words first on the ground trying to see how they would form.
Hewitt starts to put words he finds on the set up as he goes along but gets stuck with some bigger words.
Kast seems to be flying by in this challenge.

In the end the buzzard sounds and the winner and the next HOH is....

.
.






PABLITO!!!

Congrats Pab's. You have 5 days from this post to put 2 nom's up for eviction. Since there is no more Coup or POV one of these 2 players will be evicted from the house.

GL houseguest.

[Crazy]

-Hewitt has the distinction of replacing someone that Sly nominated, which makes him unlikely Chenbot. Of course, however, he is a very likely producer due to interactions with Llama.

Oh, and hewitt evicted Sly, lol. How'd I forget about that?

Anyway, I think Kast is the last chenbot, if only for process of elimination... Also, here's some mildly interesting voting history, a day apart between vote counts:

Zwet (1) Kmd4390
Sensfan (3) animorpherv, Crazy, Grandi
Sironigous (1) Zwet
SlySly (3) PaltryExcuse, Snow_Bunny, saberwolf
Paltry (1) DisCode
Discode (1) MrFinch
Kmd (1) Llamafluff

Zwet (1) Kmd4390
Sensfan (2) animorpherv, Grandi
SlySly (5) PaltryExcuse, Snow_Bunny, saberwolf,

Sironigous, Zwet

Paltry (1) DisCode
Discode (1) MrFinch
Kmd (2) Llamafluff, Crazy

Both Sir and Zwet jumped on the Sly wagon in the course of one day? This was also close to deadline... perhaps just a "Woah, we better make sure our buddy gets HoH" thing?

And before zwet was voting Sly... he was voting Sir. Woah.

So for now I'm thinking Kast -> chenbot, hewitt -> producer.

[pablito]

That totally sucks. I wish snow had made more of an effort toward the end. I thought that she totally gave up as scum in the end.

Right now, I have no idea where I'm going to go. So everyone please throw out as many cases as you can. There is absolutely no specific person I have in mind for going up.

[pablito]

Here's some start-up discussion questions:

@Crazy - what's more important to lynch next - producer or chenbot?

@Kast - who do you think is the last chenbot? what leads you to think this?

@hewitt - you voted fairly quickly on snowbunny. explain more. who remaining in the game would also warrant one of your quick votes?

@Kmd - you've put up Crazy up twice. Once as a pawn, once for doubt. What are your thoughts on him at this point?

@bv - do you feel that saberwolf's play in this game has influenced your gameplay here?

Also explain this quote back when it was snow vs sly

Yeah, but they are the scum who would vote for someone they know isn't scum, and use the reasoning that they have the most votes.

I'm not a fan of Sir's vote there. If he wanted to put Sly at L-1, he should have left it after I voted and not voted at all. I didn't realize that I was putting him at L-1 though.

Hammering him like that is just robbing us of a LOT of potential conversation.

Ah well, que sera sera. Let's see which faction Sly was on.

Looking back on it, would you have said the same things? Particularly the bolded section.


Feel free to go on tangents, I just wanted to spark discussion up again.

[Crazy]

@Crazy - what's more important to lynch next - producer or chenbot?

Whoever most likely is scum. However, there seems to be more people that could be producers than people that could be chenbots.

[pablito]

Why do you say this?

-I assume I look more like a producer than a chenbot at this moment, since it's clear that Llama was bussing ani.

I mean, not logic wise. But I mean, what purpose does it give US for you to analyze yourself right now at this point in the game? You seem to make statements about yourself quite a bit this late in the game and I'm not sure why you do it.

[bv310]

@bv - do you feel that saberwolf's play in this game has influenced your gameplay here?

Also explain this quote back when it was snow vs sly

Yeah, but they are the scum who would vote for someone they know isn't scum, and use the reasoning that they have the most votes.

I'm not a fan of Sir's vote there. If he wanted to put Sly at L-1, he should have left it after I voted and not voted at all. I didn't realize that I was putting him at L-1 though.

Hammering him like that is just robbing us of a LOT of potential conversation.

Ah well, que sera sera. Let's see which faction Sly was on.

Looking back on it, would you have said the same things? Particularly the bolded section.

Yep. I still feel the same way. I think it's entirely possible we could have had a good idea on bussing and distancing if Sly had been left alive a bit longer. I don't think it killed conversation nearly as much as I expected, but it's still a loss.

[pablito]

Well my point is, you seem to be a man of few words these days. If you still think that we're being robbed of potential conversation, you're not very inspiring. I see that as a bit hypocritical. Nothing scummy necessarily, but I would like you to participate a lot more.

Also don't forget the first question I asked you.

I'd also appreciate a list of your possible chenbots, and possible producers when you get a chance, bv.

[Crazy]

I mean, not logic wise. But I mean, what purpose does it give US for you to analyze yourself right now at this point in the game? You seem to make statements about yourself quite a bit this late in the game and I'm not sure why you do it.

I don't think I make comments about myself for any particular reason at all, other than a sake of completeness, or that time the mod asked a question.

Besides, one sentence in my post isn't making my post any more burdensome to read, so I don't see how it hurts.

[Kast]

I don't see much left really.

@Producer-
Hewitt is obv-producer.
-The "too obvious to be scum" defense is crap-logic.
-The "Llama might be framing Hewitt for a mislynch" fails on the first step. If Hewitt was a floater, then NOT selecting him as HoH would result in his mislynch anyway (Kast picks Hewitt vs. KMD or Crazy). It would have the added effect of letting Llama frame a different floater as potentially being protected AND would drop the heat on Kast.

-SensFan and AM were obv-buddies. Llama and Hewitt were obv-buddies. Llama and AM had similar interactions that Hewitt and Llama tried to defend as too obvious to be tells. Well, after the flip we know they were actually tells and obviously Llama and AM aren't good enough to avoid making obv-tells.

@Chenbot-
Saber/BV is the most probable remaining chenbot.

-The only explanation that makes any sense for Sly's D1 choices were a last second reluctance to lynch his buddy. The town was calling for Saber's lynch; Sly was promising Saber's lynch; the only reason to avoid nom'ing Saber (PoV) was claimed and not going to be used on Saber. There is absolutely no reason for Chenbot-Sly to draw so much town attention on himself and make himself the primary candidate for D2 lynch other than to defend his buddy.

-The whole pretending to have PoV could have been a scum gambit for drawing out who actually had PoV. This is not a major point, since Saber was pretty random and senseless in general.

[pablito]

I totally need to re-read Kast's views on hewitt. I skimmed them before and never took much weight in it.

For notes:

Sly chose Kmd
Sir never chose anyone

ani chose Kmd
llama chose hewitt

1: Sly picked (Kmd vs SensFan/hewitt) then SensFan/hewitt vs Discode/bv
2: hewitt picked Sly vs snow
3: Kmd picked Paltry vs Crazy
4: Crazy picked ani vs bv
5: Kmd picked (pablito vs llama) then llama vs crazy
6: (hewitt picked kast vs. snow) then kast picked snow vs bv

pov
1: paltry
2: kmd
3: pablito
4: hewitt
5: pablito

in eviction 2: the people who saved Sly were kmd and pablito (also llama and paltry)

in eviction 5: the people who saved llama were pablito and hewitt

[farside22]

Prodding Kmd and hewitt

[Kmd4390]

Prodded. Last night, I tried to make a post here from an unfamiliar laptop and somehow lost my post. But I'm extremely sure of the following:
-Pablito is producer.
-Hewitt is town. (Process of elimination. He's not Chen or Producer)
-BV is town.

I've recently convinced myself that:
-Crazy is Chen.
-If not, Kast HAS TO be Chen.

I'll respond specifically to other posts (and read them obviously) when I can.

I see that Pablito is HoH. Pablito, it's in your best interest to evict Chen. I suggest nominating Crazy.

[pablito]

Kmd, isn't it just an interesting coincidence I asked you about Crazy too? Of all people to ask you to look at. And of all people I wanted to talk about Crazy...just happens to be that.

While I'm not a producer, there's no way I can prove that I'm not. In fact all evidence points to it. And I think it's in the town's best interest to lynch me first time I go up, because otherwise there's going to be a lingering doubt in the back of all your minds. And we need to remove this obstacle so that you can do the true scumhunting for the real producer.

[Crazy]

@Kmd - What do you think of Sir and zwet both voting Sly as HoH right near the end?

Is your town read of Kast based just on the fact that he claimed the coup? Or is there more?

And note that this also applies to zwet:

-The only explanation that makes any sense for Sly's D1 choices were a last second reluctance to lynch his buddy. The town was calling for Saber's lynch; Sly was promising Saber's lynch; the only reason to avoid nom'ing Saber (PoV) was claimed and not going to be used on Saber. There is absolutely no reason for Chenbot-Sly to draw so much town attention on himself and make himself the primary candidate for D2 lynch other than to defend his buddy.

[Crazy]

Also, Kmd, has that game that made saber confirmed town completed yet? I'm so anxious to see that.

Interestingly, if me or Kast is scum, and hewitt or pablito is scum, then we can win this game.

Day 7: 6 players left, Pablito puts up me; and I'm lynched. I'm town (obviously. ), and I pick Kmd for the next HoH.

Day 8: 5 players left, Kmd puts up Kast; Kast is lynched.

Day 9: 4 players left, Kmd, bv, hewitt, and pablito. If Kmd or bv is HoH, they evict hewitt/pablito. If hewitt/pablito is HoH, then they must lynch the other one. If they don't, then they're obv-scum for Day 10.

Day 10: 3 players left, this would only occur after a mislynch of either hewitt or pablito. The evicted player (who would be town) would then pick the last HoH. HoH can evicte hewitt/pablito (whichever one is left.)

This plan would only fail under two circumstances:

a. Kmd or bv is scum. This is something I worry about slightly. This is also why I want to know why saber is confirmed-via-Kmd. Also, Kmd could be really crafty scum; if he is, maybe he just deserves this win.

b. Both hewitt and pablito are scum. This could mess with the potential Day 10 HoH. However, I see this being much less likely than (a), since I doubt either hewitt or pablito is a chenbot.

[Kmd4390]

Ok, gonna respond to specifics now.

Llama did say early on...at least while he was up with me...that he was going to do something interesting with his hoh choice. So he knew pretty early that he was going to save hewitt from the coup.

Right. Hewitt is confirmed non-producer who evicted a Chen. So we have a confirmed townie. I won't be voting Hewitt unless he is against BV. In a BV vs Hewitt situation, I'd be pissed off and wouldn't know who to vote.

Yuck, I was worried about that.

This sounds forced. Like you knew it would happen. Only way you could have known is if you are Chen yourself. Also, no one else really fits the bill as Chen except maybe Kast.

-I assume I look more like a producer than a chenbot at this moment, since it's clear that Llama was bussing ani.

Nice try.

so I hope Kmd's tell on him is

really, really

good.

It is.

------------------

The rest of your post is straight up producer-hunting as opposed to scumhunting.

Did you find anything in your "digging"? (Simple yes or no will do)

-----------------

Crazy, 1705 is crap.

-----------------

Pablito, Crazy was one of my lower suspects early on. Someone who I wasn't going to scream "OMGOBVSCUM" over, but someone in the back of my mind. When I needed someone to put up against Paltry, who probably wouldn't be evicted, but would be ok if they were, Crazy was a great choice. His reaction to being nom'd looked a little scummy especially when compared to Paltry. I had doubts to the point where I was almost hoping to see Crazy go instead.

The second time, I was sure I had two scumpartners (Llama/Pablito) up and then when Llama was the clear eviction anyway, you use the veto on yourself, I assume hoping that Snow would be nom'd/evicted, which saves Llama. I put up Crazy because he was both my next suspect and unlikely to be evicted over Llama. Now that we know a Chenbot is here and it isn't Snow, I feel that that's got to be Crazy or Kast. I've considered Kast to be likely town for most of the game, so I'm obviously thinking Crazy is Chen.

Kmd, isn't it just an interesting coincidence I asked you about Crazy too? Of all people to ask you to look at. And of all people I wanted to talk about Crazy...just happens to be that.

Don't flatter yourself. I suspect Crazy for my own reasons, not because you asked about him.

By the way, I hope you aren't trying to imply that I'm bussing/distancing because there's only one scum left in each group.

@Kmd - What do you think of Sir and zwet both voting Sly as HoH right near the end?

Sir put his buddy in obvious reach to the point where no one else would get it and Zwet was being Zwet.

Is your town read of Kast based just on the fact that he claimed the coup? Or is there more?

Mostly the coup. I'm having doubts though. Of my three town reads, Kast is the weakest. Actually, BV and Hewitt are confirmed, so that's not saying much. Still, though. If I'm wrong on you, Kast is Chen.

Also, Kmd, has that game that made saber confirmed town completed yet? I'm so anxious to see that.

Unfortunately, it's not even close...

-----------------------

Actually, I love Crazy's plan in 1719. Crazy being evicted is a good chance of hitting Chen. If not, we know it's Kast. So we know the scum at that point. If I'm put into power, Pablito and Kast go up for sure, and yeah, Kast will probably be evicted. The only issue is whether BV and Hewitt would be willing to evict Pablito over each other and over myself. If that can happen though, we'll win the game.

[Crazy]

Unfortunately, it's not even close...

Okay, another question, then... does it make him like 100% confirmed, 98% confirmed, 80% confirmed, or what?

Actually, I love Crazy's plan in 1719. Crazy being evicted is a good chance of hitting Chen. If not, we know it's Kast.

The only way I'm a good chance of being a chenbot is by

process of elimination

, okay? And can you at least give me something and say "it's either Crazy or Kast" rather than saying "If it's not Crazy, it's Kast?"

[Crazy]

@Kmd - How is hewitt confirmed?

[pablito]

Don't flatter yourself. I suspect Crazy for my own reasons, not because you asked about him.

Actually he's the only person that I've asked someone to look at, mainly because I've been suspicious of him as well. He seems to be someone who only cares to react to stuff, but really hasn't shown me much in terms of townie-positives.

Also when I used the veto on myself, it was because I had doubts on llama, not because I wanted snow out and out. I was well aware that you left out snow and crazy both out. but I was pretty flippity floppity on that vote, I admit.

If I truly was scum with llama, I would've personally just saved the veto and not used it. it took me a while to figure out what to do, and I admit that hewitt - was the one that really made me lean toward using it in the end. Scum in this game should bus and bus as much as possible. It's nightless. and two scum teams. When I'm scum, I bus a lot. However, I cannot dissuade anyone on the argument that I ignored ani and llama in discussion most of the time despite even pointing out and fosing ani previously. But vetoing myself is not what I would've done as scum. I wish I had trusted my instincts and realized that my own analysis on llama showed my doubts and that llama couldn't even answer my own questions to him to my satisfaction. I was definitely blinded on it all despite what efforts I put to suspect llama myself.

Right now, I won't trust anyone's gut or suspicion on what makes someone town because of something out of the game. I'm not someone big on outside stuff, I haven't even read anyone's meta in this game. Nonetheless, my logic makes me feel that kmd and kast are most likely to be town and I'm sticking with it.

I'm mostly aiming to put up two of crazy, bv or hewitt - unless someone has a very solid case on kast or kmd that they'd like to put up.

What gets me on Crazy is his failure to scumhunt period. But I'm just not sure.

I'd like to see everyone's thoughts on nominations despite my own list. I will listen to the public on this one and share my initial nominations and you guys can argue one way or another. I won't be online until tomorrow really, but please please post something. I need more information now.

[Kast]

While I'm not a producer, there's no way I can prove that I'm not. In fact all evidence points to it. And I think it's in the town's best interest to lynch me first time I go up, because otherwise there's going to be a lingering doubt in the back of all your minds. And we need to remove this obstacle so that you can do the true scumhunting for the real producer.

Best way to handle this is to lynch the other potential Producer (Hewitt). When he flips Producer, you're cleared.

@Kmd - What do you think of Sir and zwet both voting Sly as HoH right near the end?

@Crazy- What do you think about Saber placing the critical vote that actually determined Sly would be HoH? Last vote on an already decided issue is meaningless. Even more so in a game where you get modkilled for not voting.

And note that this also applies to zwet:

Not really. Sly did not go the whole of D1 with Zwet as his top pick. He went the whole of D1 with Saber as his top pick (until he actually picked noms and inexplicably dropped Saber).

@Crazy offering self to by lynched-
If you're scum, then it's obviously not a genuine offer and is only an empty gesture to gain support/sympathy. If you're town, that's almost always a bad play, and this situation is no different.

You are clearly admitting one of Hewitt/Pablito is the most likely remaining Producer. With Pablito as HoH, the best choice is then to lynch Hewitt, and if Hewitt is not Producer, then we know Pablito is remaining Producer and town is in good shape. If Hewitt flips Producer, we are in great shape.

@Current expressed suspicions-
Kast- Hewitt is most probable Producer. BV is most probable Chenbot. If Hewitt flips town, then Pablito is next probable Producer. KMD is probable town.

KMD- Pablito is most probable Producer. Crazy is most probable Chenbot. Kast is probable town, but if Crazy flips town, then Kast is next. BV and Hewitt are probable town.

Crazy- One of Pablito & Hewitt is most probable Producer (no preference indicated between the two). Kast & BV are equally likely as Chenbots, except for KMD's meta read on BV. KMD is probable town.

Pablito- Hewitt is most probable Producer. BV is most probable Chenbot. If BV is town, Crazy is next probable Chenbot. KMD & Kast are most probable town.

BV- Wanted KMD up previously. Trusted Crazy and Pablito. Hasn't said much else or more specifics.

Hewitt- Doesn't want to call Kast scum, but wants Kast evicted. Doesn't seem to care about anything else as long as he is not evicted.

I'm guessing he gave up on this game since his buddy was evicted and he's pretty much guaranteed a loss.

The best course of action that maximizes town's win chance based on expressed suspicions is to lynch Hewitt today. If Hewitt flips Producer, we have 3 lynches to catch the last scum (4T/1M). If Hewitt flips town, we have a guaranteed lynch of Pablito as the only plausible remaining Producer and still have 2 lynches to catch the remaining scum (3T/1M).

With three primary candidates remaining for last Chenbot, and only 2 guaranteed lynches to catch the remaining Chenbot, it is strictly bad play for a townie to offer himself as a lynch candidate.

--Contrast with--
If we implemented Crazy's plan as proposed this is how I see it turning out:
Crazy evicted and flips town. Noms KMD. KMD noms Pablito + Kast. BV votes Pablito, Hewitt votes Kast, KMD tie breaks and evicts Pablito. Pablito flips town and selects Kast as HoH. Kast noms Hewitt (and probably KMD since KMD might be unwilling to vote Hewitt over BV). Hewitt flips Producer and picks one of BV, Kast, or KMD (more likely Hewitt doesn't care and lets mod randomly select). If Kast is picked, BV is evicted, last Chenbot is dead, town wins. If KMD is picked, Kast is evicted, town loses, BV the Chenbot wins. If BV is picked, Chenbots win.

The plan is likely to result in a 1/3 town win and 2/3 Chenbot win. Not so ideal.