Mini 914 ~ Mafia Reverberation (Game Over!)

[SerialClergyman]

O Great Wizard Spyrex, are you still on board the Sotty wagon out of choice or apathy?

[SpyreX]

POWERFUL WIZARDS are above things like choice or apathy.

We just have blood lust.

Its a little from column a, little from b. I'm not sold on the whole SC / Porkens are scummm business.

However, this zoraster wagon while starting on the right feet seems to be pushing under its own weight and that bothers me.

[zoraster]

1. I guess it's also a coincidence that you're attacking the one who started your wagon.

Yes. It's coincidental. Or perhaps you think that you should be immune from my vote because you placed one on me. You can argue OMGUS, but you haven't even really done that here. You're just suggesting that I have an ulterior motive without really saying it.

3. I also also guess I'm not taking a stand on anyone by advocating for your wagon.

Hai guyz. Did you know zoraster was in this game?

True story.

incant: zoraster

This is the extent of your "stand" on me (no mention of me after or before). While I don't think pushing lurkers is bad at all, saying that you're somehow taking a stand on me or even "advocating my wagon" is nonsense.

[Herodotus]

NOTE: I hate long posts, but I'm catching up here. There will be a tl;dr in my next post.

Unincant: Spyrex, Incant: Rhinox

I think Juls was right the first time.

About Juls's vote on Spyrex: As my predecessor pointed out, it is a bit fishy for a doublevoter to suggest coordinating a masslynch, especially post 49. however, he revealed his ability to doublevote, so he can no longer use it to break the plan for the scumteam. I consider that a small town-tell for Spyrex.

The masspurge is a bad idea though, for several reasons:
1. The scum can probably daytalk, given the listing for a "Still, Small Voice" ability
2.

The scum win scorched earth.

This is important to remember.
3. The scum probably have the ability to make a kill.
4. The doublevoter ability, luxomancy, and maybe other abilities.

Even trying to get, say, 4 or more purges in one day may not be a good idea. The scum may find it worthwhile to mess with the incanting at that point. I suspect we won't be able to purge more than 1 scum on any given day.

However, I think we should try to get 2, or maybe 3, subjects purged each day to increase our chances of hitting scum and to remove suspicious townies. This will require planning and holding everyone accountable for using common sense.

It looks like the Moychandiser role is a cult recruiter

I don't think Moychandiser is a cult recruiter, because it doesn't appear to change the target's win condition. If someone receives a piece of Moychandise, then I think they should consider claiming that fact so that we know a Moychandiser exists.
I think we shouldn't worry about the reporter or Moychandiser for now. They may exist, but neither should impact anything right now. Note that *claims* don't trigger the reporter's wincon.

@MOD: In parsing the phrase "confirmed to exist in the game," do the abilities of (all) dead players count toward the reporter's wincon?

I know, I just said we shouldn't worry about it. But I want to know. It would make the reporter survivor-ish.

Good question. No, the role reveals do not count toward the Reporters' Win Conditions. ~Vi

Porkens-gate

LOL
I guess I'm old too.

I hope that doesn't make me THAT old... ~Vi

Jazzmyn, Spaceballs is awesome, as long as you've seen Star Wars IV (though it might contain spoilers for V and/or VI.) The zombies are references to a different (completed, I hope) game. The wizard stuff is, I think, just Spyrex having style.

To be quasi-fair it WAS in response to a prod as per the mod.

That doesn't change the fact that I wouldn't cry if we double string them up.

Did you mean VP and Zoraster? This seems like an out-of-nowhere comment.

Notes on people:

VP:
Have you ever been town?
You haven't posted many reads on people (though you aren't the only one.) Would you, please?

Porkens and Rhinox:
In this context (post 53), I don't find his playing the newbie card scummy. This game has some potentially complicated rules. Rhinox looks like he's throwing mud at Porkens. And later, at VP/Zoraster.

The Orbots:
I don't really agree that being a hydra makes you more vulnerable to attacks, but I don't find that line relevant to evaluating your alignment.

Sotty7:
Sorry, Serialclergyman and Spyrex, but I don't find Sotty's post 67 scummy at all. Serialclergyman, do you find "cautiousness" scummy? How strong a scumtell is it?
I don't like to see an unremovable vote on someone when there isn't much good reason to suspect them. But it doesn't mean that Spyrex is scum.
The Spy/Serial link bit is weak. There was no genuine pressure on Spyrex. But it looks like sincere scumhunting on Sotty's part. And her follow through gives me a town feeling.

Honestly guys, this case is making itself. The only reason I'm still typing is because I'm trying to break this keyboard before the warranty is due. There should be no need for any further action except incanting Sotty.

This paragraph makes me suspect Serial a little.

I'm going to give you an out. Will you admit now that your theory was a little bit reactionary, a little bit OMGUSy and in the cold light of day he probably wasn't under the sort of pressure you initially thought he was?

So does this paragraph. Yes, the theory was reactionary and OMGUSy, and Spyrex wasn't under pressure. If you're a townie, Serial, why are you making a bargain to get someone whom you suspect off your back? You should care more about finding out whether Sotty is scum or not, and purging her if she is. This paragraph only makes sense if you believe Sotty to be town and therefore you're worried about her believing you to be scum.

Jazzmyn 163 is not much of an attempt to respond to Jahudo calling her out for not scumhunting. I expect more.

O Great Wizard Spyrex, are you still on board the Sotty wagon out of choice or apathy?

I'd like you to answer the same question.

Its a little from column a, little from b. I'm not sold on the whole SC / Porkens are scummm business.

I think it was SC / Spy scummm.

I don't like Zoraster 177. I haven't made up my mind regarding the recent Zoraster/Nachomamma/Mighty Orbots issue. Zoraster doesn't look great in it, but he's not screaming scum either. I'd like Troll to comment on it when he can. I'm also a little burned out from this long reading/writing session.

[Herodotus]

tl;dr for the above post, with a brief comment on each player:

2-3 lynches would be good. More is dangerous.
Don't worry about 3rd party roles on day 1, but keep them in mind later.

Spyrex - mild townread. the attack on Sotty was probably pursuing a townie.
Sotty - medium townread.
Porkens - null. doesn't depend on Rhinox's alignment, either. if Rhinox is scum, his weak attack is just as likely to be bussing.
VP - null. needs to take more solid stances. is very good at pretending to be town.
Rhinox - mild scumread. seems to be throwing mud without much evaluation. also needs to take more solid stances.
Jahudo - null. calling out the lurkers is absolutely appropriate.
Orbots - null. calling out the lurkers is absolutely appropriate.
Zoraster - is in this game. undecided. needs to

stop lurking

continue with the not lurking.
SerialClergyman - mild scumread due to a couple of things that seem off.
Jazzmyn - null. fluffy. needs to take more solid stances.
Bloodcovenent - is NOT in this game.
Nachomamma8 - replacing BC. has posted once. I don't disagree with what he said in that post, but he didn't say much. null.

[Herodotus]

To clarify, to the people who "need to take more solid stances" -- Tell me who the scum are, and who the town are. You might have made some pokes at people, but if you're scum, that won't help us to find your buddies.

[VP Baltar]

1. I guess it's also a coincidence that you're attacking the one who started your wagon.
2. I also guess we were supposed to ignore the questions people were asking us about how the hydra was going to work.
3. I also also guess I'm not taking a stand on anyone by advocating for your wagon.

Actually, I think zoraster's point about you being in the background was one of his better because I feel the same way. No doubt that CTIII is coloring my perception, but I'm certainly wary of your hydra.

I'd like your opinion of Sotty and the wagon on her plz.

I think Juls was right the first time.

Really? I didn't understand her reasoning at all and I don't think she actually explained it well. I'd like you to elaborate.

Have you ever been town?

*bats eyelashes* Why of course.....

You haven't posted many reads on people (though you aren't the only one.) Would you, please?

Well, apart from it being fairly early in the game, I think I've at least tried to be forthcoming and comment on relevant things. I think Sotty and Jahudo (though I just read one of his scum games recently and he's quite tricksy) are probably town at this time. I think Spyrex's double voting business is very much null. Porkens and zoraster (my two votes this game) are my two earliest guesses for scum, but that's largely intuitive given how little both of them have said. I just mentioned MO. Other than that, things are largely still up in the air for me. Is there something or someone specific you wanted my opinion on that I haven't talked about?

[Herodotus]

I think Juls was right the first time.

Really? I didn't understand her reasoning at all and I don't think she actually explained it well. I'd like you to elaborate.

I agree that her reasoning for stating that Rhinox was scum wasn't clear or helpful. But I think her incant on him was an incant for scum, while the incant on Spyrex wasn't. I gave my reasons for suspecting Rhinox.

I think Sotty and Jahudo (though I just read one of his scum games recently and he's quite tricksy) are probably town at this time. I think Spyrex's double voting business is very much null. Porkens and zoraster (my two votes this game) are my two earliest guesses for scum, but that's largely intuitive given how little both of them have said. I just mentioned MO. Other than that, things are largely still up in the air for me. Is there something or someone specific you wanted my opinion on that I haven't talked about?

That's more or less what I was looking for for now.

Cool with me. (and there is actually a valid reason)

I think this is the only thing you've said about suspecting Porkens so far. Are you ready to tell us the secret?

[VP Baltar]

I think this is the only thing you've said about suspecting Porkens so far. Are you ready to tell us the secret?

Sure, I really didn't like his vote on Spyrex initially because of his tone in that post. He basically seemed to want to discredit the multi-purge theory.

That could be coming from a cautious townie as well, but then when he agrees with MO's advocating of multi-purges in post 51 it goes to full-tilt scummy. Jahudo points this out in post 56 and I really didn't find Porken's response (he didn't like spyrex's tone) to be at all satisfactory.

We also had the double newb card playing. The first one I took as a joke, the second was making early excuses, particularly since it was relating to the roles in the game.

I'll go ahead and state that, for me, with this wide a range of possible roles, it's going to be difficult to see all possible RP-combination outcomes. I can handle cop/blocker/doc/vanillas, but I'm not going to be able to follow some of what you guys might come up with as far as "but if there's an X and he's a Y, then Z could happen because of G, R, and L, statistically." So if I ask you to restate or dumb-down, it's not because I'm not paying attention or am trying to trap you, but because I really don't have a grasp. //newbcard

Which seems like it could be making excuses for him later if he makes a "mistake" with his role.

[Rhinox]

To clarify, to the people who "need to take more solid stances" -- Tell me who the scum are, and who the town are. You might have made some pokes at people, but if you're scum, that won't help us to find your buddies.

I'm scum hunting. It doesn't make sense for a hunter amidst his prey to shout out what his weapons and bait are, and where he will and won't be hunting. In other words, I do not do scum lists or town lists, as I believe they take away scum hunting opportunities. A vote is a solid stance, and you should be able to stances from my comments, not from "X is town/Y is scum". The more sure I get of finding scum, the stronger my stances become. Besides, its D1. Nobody is town but me.

In the meantime, you have to start somewhere, and throwin' a little mud around isn't a bad way to do it. Which one of Porkens, zoraster, or VP are you tarChainsaw defending, btw?

And for the record, I don't believe I was flinging mud at VP. I asked a question and he answered. And I missed the prod request from Jahudo about zoraster. All I saw was VP calling for a wagon on zor and Zor then magically appearing 20 minutes later via the timestamps.


Also for the record, I'm not sure I can fully support any intentional multilynch plans especially during the equivalence of D1. D1s are typically crapshoots as far as useable evidence goes. Most D1 talk only becomes especially interesting AFTER a flip. Lynching 1 at a time allows for wagon analysis and role information to come into play. Even if we're deadlocked between 2 players today, I think we'd gain more information by encouraging the players involved to take a stand to purge one player before deadline rather than allowing the deadline to purge both of them. Similar to how if a lynch is determined by a deadline in a normal game, the wagon analysis becomes less meaningful.

Just my 2 cents. There may be situations where multilynching is beneficial, but for the most part, multilynching means the lynches are made with only the current level of "information", while progressive lynching inherantly means each lynch will be made based on more information. I.E. Maybe I want to lynch both X and Z today, but if either or neither gets lycnhed today, information might change and I'd want to lynch neither tomorrow.


@Nacho: I'm displeased with your entrance to the game. No thoughts on other players besides Zor? Is MO your scum partner?

[Herodotus]

That's just silly. Rhinos are heribvores.

I don't think any of Porkens, zoraster, or VP has earned a defense from me so far. But if I was chainsawing for them, you'd be a poor choice of target. You're not seriously pursuing any of them, just making low-key comments -- which is what I find suspicious about you.

You want information, but seem to feel it can only be derived from wagon analysis. I think it can be derived from scum lists. I'll grant that information is incomplete before there are any flips. But saying "I support purging X and Y today" if we will be purging two people is approxiamately equally as useful as maintaining a vote for both X and Y. Yes, there's the potential that the person will fail to follow through and use their vote at the last minute to allow either X or Y to survive. But then we know the person is scum, probably along with the person they saved.

[Mighty Orbots]

This is the extent of your "stand" on me (no mention of me after or before). While I don't think pushing lurkers is bad at all, saying that you're somehow taking a stand on me or even "advocating my wagon" is nonsense.

My stand is that I've lynched too many scum lurkers to stop now, and your contributions thus far haven't done anything to sway me.

I'd like Troll to comment on it when he can. I'm also a little burned out from this long reading/writing session.

Welcome in.

If you see Troll tell him to come home.

2. The scum win scorched earth. This is important to remember.

? What's this mean?

Actually, I think zoraster's point about you being in the background was one of his better because I feel the same way.

Well, there's a couple reasons for this. One, this game feels awfully

dense

somehow and hard to get a handle on. Second, Troll's run off somewhere and I don't want to go gallivanting off too far without his input.

I'd like your opinion of Sotty and the wagon on her plz.

I'm always cool with wagons.

Opinion on Sotty is she's rather reactionary, more active when under scrutiny and attacking her attackers mostly, but I dunno if that's scum or just Sotty. I go hot/cold when reading her posts, some stuff is reaching and some is okay. I'm keeping an eye on that quarter.

[SpyreX]

I don't know why this is driving me nuts but it sure as hell is at this point:

The idea of a mass-purge (more than 2-4 lynches) is, was, and will be theory talk. I don't expect it to happen. I dont

want

it to happen.

Unless we run into, like I said:

However, if later we see a block of "more than lylo" "confirmed" (I'd say 4, just to account for an NK) then hells yes I could see doing a purge of the leftovers.

My heckles are arisen. POWERFUL WIZARDS aren't ones to have heckles raised without dire consequences.

Did you mean VP and Zoraster? This seems like an out-of-nowhere comment.

No, BC and Zor. As in the "haha, look we voted a lurker and they showed up muahahaha" vibe I was expecting. I was just clarifying as a wink and a nudge that there was a prod that may have influenced it.

However, even with the above watchin them dangle wouldn't bother me.

I think it was SC / Spy scummm.

I may be misreading the Porkens part, but she's been pretty clear on SpyreX = town, SC = scum.

But, so it goes.
---

Ready for an interesting revelation?

If we see a scum doublevoter I'd put hard money on one of, if not both, Sotty and Zoraster are scum.
Why that is I'll leave up to the mysteries of space and time.

But, lets play lynchin' time!

I would lynch the following as of this point

Zoraster
Jazzmyn
Sotty
Rhinox

I absolutely would not lynch today:

Mighty Orbots
Porkens
SC

Maybe later I'll clear up the series of questions that should spawn.

[Rhinox]

You want information, but seem to feel it can only be derived from wagon analysis. I think it can be derived from scum lists. I'll grant that information is incomplete before there are any flips. But saying "I support purging X and Y today" if we will be purging two people is approxiamately equally as useful as maintaining a vote for both X and Y. Yes, there's the potential that the person will fail to follow through and use their vote at the last minute to allow either X or Y to survive. But then we know the person is scum, probably along with the person they saved.

I don't feel information can only be derived from wagon analysis. Some forms of information gathering are mutually exclusive. Just because I said one way would create more/better information than another way IMO does not mean I do not feel the other way would not create information. I simply prefer one way over the other because I feel IMO it would be better.

Your hypothetical scenario would never happen by the way. It is no more likely than "scum quick hammering on day 1" or any of the other stupid things people claim scum would do but in reality they never ever do. And even if they did, WIFOM would dictate that we can't use it as a tell, unless we just policy lynch.

I don't think any of Porkens, zoraster, or VP has earned a defense from me so far. But if I was chainsawing for them, you'd be a poor choice of target. You're not seriously pursuing any of them, just making low-key comments -- which is what I find suspicious about you.

I was going for the "provocative comments meant to invoke responses". Entirely the opposite of low-key. I can't help it if my prey aren't taking the bait

[Jahudo]

Sotty, what's the difference between these two quotes?

Serial, why Porkens out of everyone?

Happy birthday SpyreX. WTF did you just do? And why did you do it to Sotty7?

From where I'm looking, there is no difference (except tone). Now let's go back to what you said earlier today:

I wouldn't argue against a MO wagon at this point. I think the reaction to Spy's double vote on me was fishy. He just asked why me and yet didn't give any opinions of the action itself. Felt like he was waiting to see how others reacted.

So by that logic, Sotty's above reaction was fishy, and you wouldn't argue against a Sotty wagon. Except you did when it happened.

Sotty looks hypocritical and scummy here.

2.

The scum win scorched earth.

This is important to remember.

Hello father of history. I don't understand this.

[Nachomamma8]

@Nacho: I'm displeased with your entrance to the game. No thoughts on other players besides Zor? Is MO your scum partner?

I apologize for not coming into the game with a BANG, Rhinox. However, I'd advise you to examine your own posting before looking at mine. This is the first post you've made with content, and you haven't replaced into the game 2 days ago...

I also don't like your position on multi-lynching. The only reason you give against it is "we lose wagon analysis". You failed to realize that scum would be forced to actually DEFEND their scumpartner, instead of raising an alternative wagon on a townie. Also, we'd still join the wagon we felt strongest about by INCANTING or vocalizing about it. So, if we felt better about Wagon B and Wagon A was scum, and Wagon B was town, hey! there's something to analyze, right?

Zoraster needs to post with more content before I feel better about him, honestly. His major case on MO is that he really isn't taking stances on anything, but back when he and Zorblag were around, it was pretty early in the game and they didn't have that much of a chance to do a whole lot, so I don't see them being all that scummy.

[Vi]

Incantation:

:arrow:

zoraster (P-4)

~

Jazzmyn

, Mighty Orbots,

VP Baltar

,

Jahudo

,

Nachomamma8

Sotty7 (P-5)

~

SerialClergyman

,

SpyreX

,

-INCANT-

,

Porkens

Porkens (P-8)

~

Rhinox

SerialClergyman (P-8)

~

Sotty7

Mighty Orbots (P-8) ~

zoraster

Rhinox (P-8)

~

Herodotus

SpyreX (P-9)

~

Herodotus

--At Intensity ι, it will take 9 Incants to Purge...
--The Intensity will increase on Friday, February 5, 2010...

[Herodotus]

To answer Jahudo and Papa Orbot:

(Dark - Town) You win when all other factions have left the game and one person who shares this Win Condition is alive, or nothing can prevent the same.

(Light - Mafia) You win when all other factions have left the game, or nothing can prevent the same.

The town WC requires a townie to survive. The scum WC doesn't require a scum to survive. So if the scum can arrange that all players die, they win, even if they are dead themselves. ("scorched earth" is a term that means everyone is dead, or everything in an area is destroyed.)

Nacho and Jazzmyn, what do you think of Spyrex's lists?

but she's been pretty clear on SpyreX = town, SC = scum.

That's not how I understand what she's been saying. At the beginning, she thought Serial was trying to deflect attention away from you, his buddy. Since then she's "not sold on Spy being scum", which I interpret as indecision.

Jahudo makes a good point about Sotty being hypocritical there.

[Herodotus]

Jahudo makes a good point about Sotty being hypocritical about MO.

[Nachomamma8]

Nacho and Jazzmyn, what do you think of Spyrex's lists?

I too would lynch Zoraster, Rhinox, and, to a lesser extent, Sotty.

I don't understand why Porkens and SC are don't lynch at any costs; they seem to me just to be low-activity players that I haven't got a read on yet. Jazz and VP also belong in this category, but I wouldn't mind lynching a lurker or two.

His MO town read is good, I agree with that.

As for the list itself, I can't say I understand it yet. But I'm sure he will explain it all when his wizardy self feels like it, and his double-voting stunt has given me a town read on him for the time being.

[VP Baltar]

Jazz and VP also belong in this category, but I wouldn't mind lynching a lurker or two.

I'm a low activity player?

His MO town read is good, I agree with that

Reason specifically?

[Nachomamma8]

I'm a low activity player?

Glancing at you in ISO says different. I didn't remember you posting a whole lot, thus your addition to the list.

As for town read on MO, I like Papa Zito's aggressiveness. I'd like him to post more, but I don't mind waiting a little while since half of the hydra is missing.

[VP Baltar]

As for town read on MO, I like Papa Zito's aggressiveness.

What posts do you read as being aggressive? What specifically in those posts is aggressive?

[Rhinox]

@Nacho: I'm displeased with your entrance to the game. No thoughts on other players besides Zor? Is MO your scum partner?

I apologize for not coming into the game with a BANG, Rhinox. However, I'd advise you to examine your own posting before looking at mine. This is the first post you've made with content, and you haven't replaced into the game 2 days ago...

My activity has nothing to do with it. I think it is scummy that you jumped into the game and hopped on (one of) the popular wagon without even a consideration of anyone else, or sufficiently supporting your vote, IMO. Trying to completely smokescreen that point by calling into question my contributions to the game is even scummier.

incant: Nachomamma

I also don't like your position on multi-lynching. The only reason you give against it is "we lose wagon analysis". You failed to realize that scum would be forced to actually DEFEND their scumpartner, instead of raising an alternative wagon on a townie. Also, we'd still join the wagon we felt strongest about by INCANTING or vocalizing about it. So, if we felt better about Wagon B and Wagon A was scum, and Wagon B was town, hey! there's something to analyze, right?

Is this part of the reason you would support my lynch?

Either way, the quoted comments are a complete misrep. Here is the complete list of reasons I touched on in this post:
1)Flips give new perspective on information. A flip today makes tomorrow's lynch choice better.
2)Wagon analysis allows for finding scum based on voting patterns, a tool that loses effect if we start multi-lynching.
3)Role information: roles that can only act once per incantation would benefit from having more days to act. Multilynching will cut down on the number of incantation periods in the game, reducing the effect of the PRs.
4)Progressively lynching means that the next lynch will always be made with more info than the previous lynch. Mass lynching means all the lynches are made with the current level of information.

And a couple other reasons I didn't explicitly state before: 5)Multi-lynching will speed up the game. Faster game equals less information equals expidited scum victory, IMO.
6)Multi-lynching may have some upsides, but it also has a huge downside, such as purging multiple townies and no scum all at once. Theres no downside to progressive lynching. Its tried and true.

The only information thats been given to support multilynches have been a couple of specific examples where scum could be found. I look at it this way. If you're playing hold'em and you're dealt 7-3 off suit, in general, the best play is to fold. Just because there is a possibility we could flop a straight and win does not mean we should play 7-3 off-suit.

[Mighty Orbots]

The town WC requires a townie to survive. The scum WC doesn't require a scum to survive. So if the scum can arrange that all players die, they win, even if they are dead themselves. ("scorched earth" is a term that means everyone is dead, or everything in an area is destroyed.)

This is an excellent point.


OH GRATE POWRFUL WIZERD SPRYEX

However, this zoraster wagon while starting on the right feet seems to be pushing under its own weight and that bothers me.

I would lynch the following as of this point

Zoraster

What happened between these posts?


@VP, while apparently I have caught your attention - SerialClergyman is scum y/n?