Open 193 - Friends and Enemies: It's over!

[Zorblag]

So here's some of what I think of people/the state of the game right now:

Albert B. Rampage is still playing the game that I expect him to. He's been more active with his role than he was in day one (I recall arguing that he was participating in a meaningful way then which he was but now he's getting under more people's skins.) While I've still got him as more likely town than scum I do disagree with xRECKONERx's last assessment about why he wouldn't do this as scum though. When he's scum I think he's a bit more likely to stay out of the game when it's a feasible strategy like he id din Mini 880 but he knows what people's perceptions of his game are. Doing things that people are going to find scummy is in no way a town tell for Albert B. Rampage; it's just part of his play style in general. This not having him as an expendable player on the scum team seems pretty unlikely to be how he'd approach the game (and hence how a scum team he was on would approach the game.)

The reason that I'd lean town is that I'm still not getting an overall attempt to confuse issues with the moves that Albert B. Rampage is making. He's drawing flak for changing his opinion and not giving the justification people expect but he's largely doing it in a way that's focused on a reasonably consistent part of the game. I'd say that the overall shape of the his game is focused on what's more likely at this time to be scum hunting than it is to be misdirection.

I don't think I'm communicating that particularly well, so for those who are having trouble with him I'll suggest looking at everyone that he's applying pressure to and compare that to the wagons that we've had so far. Ignoring the reasons that he's giving for his moves I think he's putting pressure on a pretty reasonable group of people to be considering as scum (barring whatever reads I or whoever is looking might have.)

Taking a look at those on the Albert B. Rampage wagon I think that I'm happiest with VP Baltar's being there. Given his level of experience with Albert B. Rampage it feels like he hit the right point (timing and opportunity-wise) for getting fed up with the play as town. My biggest reason for not being interested in voting for him yesterday is gone (though I'm still not interested in sharing what that is/was at this point) but I've got a stronger town read for him based on overall play than I do for anyone else in the game.

The reason I had no interest in lynching SerialClergyman is in a more interesting spot but I think that there's a bit more benefit in leaving him with that status for one more day than dropping it. I'm not thrilled with his move to Albert B. Rampage killing the momentum on the xRECKONERx wagon as I think that's where we want to be today. It also seems like a more calculated move than VP Baltar's did and less reasonably attributed to hitting an Albert B. Rampage tolerance limit. I do like that he wants to hear what I'm thinking about VP Baltar in particular.

@SerialClergyman, if I was talking about what you think that I was talking about yesterday when I said that I thought that you had realized something was happening, was what I thought we'd figured out correct or not?

hitogoroshi's place on the wagon actually feels off to me as well; I think that it's the statement that he'd be voting for Sando if he felt that his vote would have the proper wagon pushing power combined with the choice of Albert B. Rampage over xRECKONERx given that either would be acceptable to him. It'd feel a lot worse though if his post in isolation on Albert B. Rampage hadn't come before the wagon had started. Other than those details (and perhaps the way that he's treating me) overall I find his entrance to be a null tell; it's good analysis of each player which is appreciated but something that I personally like to do no matter what my alignment is. PorkchopExpress's play wasn't overly scummy but he definitely wasn't anything pro-town either (he was my number three choice for the lynch yesterday after all), mostly he just wasn't really there. The player spot on the whole then is a bit on the scummy side for me thus far.

@hitogoroshi, what would an Albert B. Rampage lynch right now if he flipped town tell you about SerialClergyman and VP Baltar? What about if he flipped scum? I don't know that I'm sold on it being informative which you seem to think it would be.

I'm still not interested in lynching Debonair Danny DiPietro. I'm still not interested in talking about my reasons.

I'm not particularly comfortable with how Ojanen does seem to be holding off on the popular wagons because of their popularity (it felt like that's happened with both charlatan and xRECKONERx now) and I don't like this change of attitude on xRECKONERx today that seems to have only come after the wagon has gone through the derail that it has. Even when she was being tentative about the wagon because of the way it was building she was bringing up problem points about xRECKONERx's play. Now apparently that's all been written of as inconsistent, bad play from town rather than scum. It doesn't feel like a fully legitimate progression of views there.

It's odd that I can't quite tell what Sando thinks of xRECKONERx at this point given his general reaction and vote on Vi once the xRECKONERx wagon hit L-1.

@Vi, are you ready to say why it was that you didn't want to share your role in the previous version of the game yet?

If we don't lynch xRECKONERx today my top choices for alternates are currently Ojanen and hitogoroshi.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Albert B. Rampage]

ABR, is there anyone you won't blindly follow?

Ojanen is a good player for me to follow at the moment. I find VPB more or less as scummy as RECK. But maybe he's frustrated like he claims to be, I just don't believe that to be the case.

ABR: Is SerialClergyman Mafia? (with xRx/VP Baltar?)

It could be, but I don't find any relation.

Hey Albert, whatever happened to your SC suspicion?

His unintelligent vote on me was scummy. I think he and I are relatively on the same wavelength in relation to how we read the game of mafia. Since I would have killed Amished too if I were scum, that adds to my suspicion of him, albeit an obscure one that I don't expect anyone to be convinced by it. Lastly, I find it suspicious that he believed so hard in charlatan being scum.

In conclusion, SC has played an unintelligent game so far, is quite unable to find scum, and may have made an intelligent night-kill if he were scum. He could be uninterested town, or uninvolved for some other reason mysterious to me, I'm not certain yet. I also largely voted SC to get him back voting RECK.

[Head_Honcho]

Votecount:

xRECKONERx(3): Debonair Danny DiPietro, Zorblag, Vi
Vi(1): Sando
Debonair Danny DiPietro(1): xRECKONERx
Albert B. Rampage(3): SerialClergyman, VP Baltar, hitogoroshi
VP Baltar(2): Ojanen, Albert B. Rampage

With 10 alive it's 6 to lynch.

[Ojanen]

This might sound weak but I'm not a fan of his turn of phrase either here, btw, he has in effect already decided Reck is scum. Yet needs to do an iso for justification ie looking good. No way to land on anyone else if looking at one person only.

Except you skip the whole part where I wasn't fond of Reckoner on Day 1. Also your argument that there is a "lack of initiative" in my targets is funny considering I'm the only person who made a case on Reckoner today and yesterday I spent a very good portion of the day outlining my reasons on charlatan.

Yup yup. Members of the town, very bad representation of my arguments.

Part of my whole point was that you (probably others too, won't check now) badgered Reck D1 mostly

because

charlatan was so OMG scum and Reck went on PCE wagon despite thinking charlatan is scum. And the charlatan wagon was all OMG town and not going through because of scum resistance. Reck hammers when charlatan lynch is inevitable, and charlie flips town. And you go for Reck first thing D2 without intending to look at others because Reck's been "dancing around lynches".
My lack of initiative argument is not funny in the least.
I attacked you D1 for being reactive on getting on the charlatan wagon and coasting on it. I already linked it last post but here we go a-gain.

After

which you proceeded to do all this arguing with charlatan, when you got into this mutual suspicion interaction.
As for you being the only person having made a formal case on Reck today, well how does that make a squat difference in motivation and reactivity when DDD and Zorblag had voted him, Serial had put him up to lynch candidates and I had just made my pretteh scummeh points against him.

Reck is a juicy easy target in this game if he's town.

Translation: "I still have a foot in both camps, but the Reckoner wagon seems to have become less popular now."

Ooh, exciting, you think I'm scum? I kinda like your knee-jerk.
I do

not

want to lynch Reck currently and I said it very clear. Need to take a good breath to do the full town assumption since I can see inconsistencies, being the one to bring some up in the first place. But indecisiveness rarely wins games. And I think Reck doesn't care how he looks, or then is a much worse player than I think he is. I'm expecting him to be town.

I don't get what is so unbearably scummy about pushing the PCE wagon instead of the charlatan-town's wagon, definitely wasn't "dancing around any lynch he could get" since joining charlatan tunnelers was about as easy as it could have gotten in the first place and he switched when any other lynch than charlatan's seemed impossible anyway.

So, you don't see any scummy motivation to support both of the leading wagons for very little reason and yet be unexplainably hesitant to join the eventual mislynch of someone who is apparently your top target? In the words of Mr. Clergyman, that is rubbish.

I find the reason to lynch PCE over charlatan for being far more useless ok, I might be biased since I thought PCE was scummier and charlatan was scummy too but meh.
Albert seemed to be specifically fishing for Reck's support on PCE vote, PRETTEH SCUMMEH in his call for PCE votes was a Reck citation.
What I see is this: people who have been long on the charlatan wagon attack Reck about not being on charlatan wagon. He sticks to the PCE vote but eventually hammers.

Hey people on the PCE wagon, if charlatan is town who is scum on his wagon? Given that he seems to be on the edge of being lynched for forever, I'm going to assume you think there is a large concentration of scum on his wagon that just can't get it over the edge, so enlighten me.

D2, above any implications of above popular line of thought are ignored,
A very similar group of people to the longtermers attack now Reck. Before the breakdown now the cases that have been made have predominantly been on PCE wagoners (ABR, Sando, Reck).

charlatan(4):SerialClergyman, Zorblag, Albert B. Rampage, VP Baltar

charlatan(5): SerialClergyman, Zorblag, Albert B. Rampage, VP Baltar, Sando

charlatan(5):SerialClergyman, Zorblag, VP Baltar, Amished, Vi

xRECKONERx(5): Debonair Danny DiPietro, Zorblag, SerialClergyman, Albert B. Rampage, Vi

with VP making the case and saying he would totally be on wagon if not too early in the day.
All of the core group of long time voters turn to Reck. Could be bussing, could be blah blah, but doesn't feel good, and VP sticks out to me as scummy individually quite strongly, has for a lonf time. And I have related to some of the stuff Reck has said (will elaborate later). Vi, to answer one question of yous, I don't read Reck declaring Sando as town as scummy, it reminds me of patterns of hounded townies' behaviour I have experienced more than scum actually.

As far as the wagon being less popular, I think the fact that it has diminished from L-1 to L-3 shows that it's less popular at the moment or at least that people are trying to look elsewhere before settling on that as being the lynch for the day.

Just look at the thread.
I don't think anyone except me or Sando has been really against a Reck lynch. hito, Albert, VP all seem perfectly fine to make the lynch happen again and that's already L-0.

The case on VP is not bad [...] Besides, we can use your vote if you're scum, you bus-machine

See, it's obviously a win-win. Hmm, how did this thing work? Oh yeah.
I'm sooo awesome. You should get on my sexy wagon.

There is a bunch of questions I need to aswer here and didn't answer all from even VP or read the thread completely to its end, will get back tomorrow. Still having time problems, neeeed to sleep a couple of hours before getting yelled at not playing Brahms concerto good enough.

[Ojanen]

It's not that I put superbly conclusive stock on patterns (it's not my forte really), but it's just that I would be surprised if all of VP, Zorblag and Serial were town, and VP has read to me as individually scummy for a long time (definitely more so than the other two) and they all go after Reck first thing D2.

[Albert B. Rampage]

My town list: Vi, Ojanen

[Albert B. Rampage]

I bet DDD could join that list if he TRIED. By providing analysis, and not asking questions to me.

[Albert B. Rampage]

For the sake of advancing discussion and because I'm bored, I will answer some:

PCE was a better lynch than charlatan. We can't afford to lose PCE if he is town, so we have to be convinced he is scum to lynch him. I'm not convinced.

I don't know whether PCE is scum or not. I know we can't mislynch or we are in a world of shit tomorrow,

What particular piece of insight am I missing that makes these statements make sense?

PCE was a solid Day 1 lynch because he didn't give any original information and was likely not going to. Nobody to link him with, nothing to pin him on in the future, and this in itself was scummy, coupled with a lack of interest in the game.

But we wasted a lynch Day 1 on charlatan (which was bad but unpreventable due to Amished, VPB, Zorblag, etc.), and we have to lynch carefully, based on more than "we can't link him to anyone" and lurking. Know what I mean?

@VPB

Late Day 1.

[VP Baltar]

Part of my whole point was that you (probably others too, won't check now) badgered Reck D1 mostly because charlatan was so OMG scum and Reck went on PCE wagon despite thinking charlatan is scum. And the charlatan wagon was all OMG town and not going through because of scum resistance. Reck hammers when charlatan lynch is inevitable, and charlie flips town.

Dancing around the wagon even though he claimed to find him scummy and then only hammering after ABR tells him to. Yes, still scummy. What is your issue again?

And you go for Reck first thing D2 without intending to look at others because Reck's been "dancing around lynches".

Where did I say I had no intention to look at others? Oh, that's right YOU'RE USING EMPTY RHETORIC TO PAD YOUR CASE.

As for you being the only person having made a formal case on Reck today, well how does that make a squat difference in motivation and reactivity when DDD and Zorblag had voted him, Serial had put him up to lynch candidates and I had just made my pretteh scummeh points against him.

You're totally right, there's no difference between explaining your reasons for voting someone to make yourself transparent and saying WAGON GOGOGOGO.

You're essentially saying that even though I was suspicious of Reck day 1 and have actual reasons (which I have clearly outlined) for voting him today, I am likely scum because I didn't quick vote him like DDD, Zorblag and SC. I think you should actually look up the definition of reactive in your free time.

Ooh, exciting, you think I'm scum? I kinda like your knee-jerk.

Again, saying I said things which I did not. I did not call you scum, but I think you fencesitting on the Reck issue is scummy. You're beyond suspicion?

However it's good to see you finally took a stance on it:

I'm expecting him to be town.

At least calling you out got you to make yourself accountable.

All of the core group of long time voters turn to Reck. Could be bussing, could be blah blah

I don't disagree with you about this point actually and it does bother me to some degree. I have been tossing over in my head who out of that group could be scum. Troll sticks out for his lurking today, but that's nothing that I take to be all that scummy. SC's apparent interest in your case on me strikes me as strange because I think it's laughably bad, but again that is not something I am confident in saying he's scum over. I still feel pretty certain that Vi is town. I was correct in my town read on Amished (since he wanted xRx dead hardcore as well).

All in all, however, even the people on the charlatan wagon that I think have the potential to be scum don't read as scummier than Reck or ABR. Not even by a long shot.

Just look at the thread.
I don't think anyone except me or Sando has been really against a Reck lynch. hito, Albert, VP all seem perfectly fine to make the lynch happen again and that's already L-0.

I agree, look at the thread. People have backed off of Reck and are looking elsewhere. You really want to argue that's not happening? That doesn't make him less scummy inherently, but it does make the wagon less popular in the sense that it's not in immediate threat of going through. So...you're still wrong.

--preview edit---

@VPB

Late Day 1.

Thank you. It's not so hard to be reasonable, now is it? I'll address this tomorrow since I'm pretty tired right now.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

For the sake of advancing discussion and because I'm bored, I will answer some:

PCE was a better lynch than charlatan. We can't afford to lose PCE if he is town, so we have to be convinced he is scum to lynch him. I'm not convinced.

I don't know whether PCE is scum or not. I know we can't mislynch or we are in a world of shit tomorrow,

What particular piece of insight am I missing that makes these statements make sense?

PCE was a solid Day 1 lynch because he didn't give any original information and was likely not going to. Nobody to link him with, nothing to pin him on in the future, and this in itself was scummy, coupled with a lack of interest in the game.

But we wasted a lynch Day 1 on charlatan (which was bad but unpreventable due to Amished, VPB, Zorblag, etc.), and we have to lynch carefully, based on more than "we can't link him to anyone" and lurking. Know what I mean?

Sure, but I think most people would come to the opposite conclusion. If we have no information from him and we can't link him to anyone can we really afford to let him live to a potential LYLO situation? Because of these facts it's unlikely that scum will kill him, so doesn't it make more sense to take our chance when it isn't a game losing proposition. Additionally, if we expect others to provide information and connections and we don't expect PCE to do the same then the utility of keeping him around on that sort of grounds is even less.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Well we have different approaches then. What do you think of everything said so far in the game? Dude if you don't like this game it's no biggie, I'll ask Adel to replace and she'll make us some charts or something lol

I just want to see some involvement here, you know? Comment on what's been said, like a super long post about what you think about everything so far on Day 2.

[SerialClergyman]

See, it's obviously a win-win. Hmm, how did this thing work? Oh yeah.
I'm sooo awesome. You should get on my sexy wagon.

You don't need the first bit - that's implied.

I might, actually. Will have a bit of time to think.

In the meantime, Alberty, what's with the Vi townread? I've been noticing a pattern of shitstirring that I'm uncool with.

[Albert B. Rampage]

What?

[hitogoroshi]

So here's some of what I think of people/the state of the game right now:

Ignoring the reasons that he's giving for his moves I think he's putting pressure on a pretty reasonable group of people to be considering as scum (barring whatever reads I or whoever is looking might have.)

Why in the world are we ignoring the reasons he's giving for his votes?

hitogoroshi's place on the wagon actually feels off to me as well; I think that it's the statement that he'd be voting for Sando if he felt that his vote would have the proper wagon pushing power combined with the choice of Albert B. Rampage over xRECKONERx given that either would be acceptable to him.

As I said, I really didn't want a reckoner lynch feeling inevitable today - no matter how much I agree with it, it helps a lot to have more than one wagon floating around in a day.

@hitogoroshi, what would an Albert B. Rampage lynch right now if he flipped town tell you about SerialClergyman and VP Baltar? What about if he flipped scum? I don't know that I'm sold on it being informative which you seem to think it would be.

Poke me on this one in a page or so. I promise to have an exact post number to link to on why I wanted to wait.

I'm still not interested in lynching Debonair Danny DiPietro. I'm still not interested in talking about my reasons.

Even when she was being tentative about the wagon because of the way it was building she was bringing up problem points about xRECKONERx's play. Now apparently that's all been written of as inconsistent, bad play from town rather than scum. It doesn't feel like a fully legitimate progression of views there.

I still have Ojanen on the townie side of things (though not far, no one's far townie to me right now) but this is basicially the same point as Vi's 744 and I'm not liking that Ojanen apparently managed to miss both incarnations of the question. Ojanen, you say that you are aware of the inconsistencies you brought up on Reck but still think he's town. Did you think he was probably scum at the point when you started pressuring him and pushing his wagon (in which case, when did you change your mind) or did you think he was probably town even then (in which case, why did you push his wagon)?

It's odd that I can't quite tell what Sando thinks of xRECKONERx at this point given his general reaction and vote on Vi once the xRECKONERx wagon hit L-1.

Whoa, I'm watching Sando specifically for stuff like that and it hasn't even occurred to me. Good catch.

Hey Albert, whatever happened to your SC suspicion?

His unintelligent vote on me was scummy. I think he and I are relatively on the same wavelength in relation to how we read the game of mafia. Since I would have killed Amished too if I were scum, that adds to my suspicion of him, albeit an obscure one that I don't expect anyone to be convinced by it. Lastly, I find it suspicious that he believed so hard in charlatan being scum.

In conclusion, SC has played an unintelligent game so far, is quite unable to find scum, and may have made an intelligent night-kill if he were scum. He could be uninterested town, or uninvolved for some other reason mysterious to me, I'm not certain yet. I also largely voted SC to get him back voting RECK.

Wait so let me get this straight. On one page Reckoner is SO scummy that you're willing to vote someone because they STOP voting for reckoner, and the next page you're completely ignoring reckoner and SC to go for VP? If Ojanen jumps off of the VP wagon will you be voting her for that?

Seriously think about this one. The Reckoner wagon has defused but it's still light years ahead of the VP in terms of viability, and you were willing to hop off of it for first a hilariously self-defeating vote on SC (you say it was to get SC back on the Reck wagon, but you jumped off of the reck wagon in the process, doing far more hurt than good to it). That is such a hilariously zany reason to vote that it really strikes me as just you setting up a transition where you can get off of a wagon you still allegedly support for reasons related to it (since your stated reason for voting SC gives the impression you'll be going back to Reckoner soon) and then hop on another wagon without going directly off of the reckoner wagon and arousing suspicion. That's seriously the only interpretation that makes any sense with me, especially because no one seems to be batting an eye at the SC vote which seems to be it's purpose - your SC vote wasn't to start a wagon, it was to GET OFF a wagon.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Same could be argued for VPB, really.

[xRECKONERx]

@Troll: Instead of giving your opinions on what's happening, can you present a case on me? I know you seem to be a big fan of wall o' texts, but the fact that you haven't really explained exactly why you find me scummy yet is off-putting.

@ABR: Do you 'do' scumlists? If so, mind throwing one my way?

@Ojanen: You're right, I really don't care how I look. Ever. In any game.

Re: VPB. I'm not liking how he seems to be throwing suspicion at anyone who disagrees with him or finds him scummy. Or maybe that's just the vibe I'm getting from him and it doesn't match reality... but he seems to be versus ABR, because ABR is calling him scummy, and he seems to be calling Ojanen scum, after Ojanen pointed out problems with VPB.

Oh, that's right YOU'RE USING EMPTY RHETORIC TO PAD YOUR CASE.

Irony?

In any case, I'm not sure on ABR tbqh. I realized how much of a logical fallacy it is to assume that he's too scummy to be scum. I don't know his meta at all, but maybe he plays completely different every game so that when he IS scum, nobody can catch him for stuff like that. He's a neutral read for me right now. I still like a DDD lynch at the moment, but VPB's reactionary playstyle is pissing me off and I'm

strongly

considering joining that wagon. And I'm still happy with my Sando-town read.

[VP Baltar]

Re: VPB. I'm not liking how he seems to be throwing suspicion at anyone who disagrees with him or finds him scummy.

*sigh* Where was this happening at exactly?

Or maybe that's just the vibe I'm getting from him and it doesn't match reality... but he seems to be versus ABR, because ABR is calling him scummy

Where in any of my cases did I say anything relating to what ABR thought of me? I think he's been acting scummy since Day 1 in case you aren't reading the game.

he seems to be calling Ojanen scum

No, I didn't call her scum at all. I pointed out a few scummy things she has said, but never stated any definitive conclusion. Feel free to actually quote things to support your points.

Irony?

Really? How so?

Perhaps you were referring to this:

VPB's reactionary playstyle is pissing me off and I'm strongly considering joining that wagon.

Irony?

In the meantime, Alberty, what's with the Vi townread?

What is your read on Vi? what about ABR's bothers you? Does my town read on her bother you?

Same could be argued for VPB, really.

No, not really at all. At least someone else sees how arbitrary your play is here.

Also, I need you to be more specific about your suspicion of Reckoner in "late Day 1". Point me to a specific post or time period that you started to find him suspicious, preferably with some sort of explanation why.

[xRECKONERx]

VPB, my point was it looks like you're only attacking those who have some suspicion of you.

[VP Baltar]

When did you attack me? When did charlatan attack me? When did Scien attack me? When did ABR attack me before I attacked him?

Also, feel free to actually respond to my post proper and supply the quotes I'm asking for.

[xRECKONERx]

Translation: "I still have a foot in both camps, but the Reckoner wagon seems to have become less popular now."

Why would you think this is what she's doing unless she is scum? What is the town motivation for this? Answer: there is none. So if you think this is actually what she's doing, you must think she's scum.

[VP Baltar]

Acting scummy in a single instance DNE scum, however, I don't mind pointing out.

Apart from a single quote about Oj who else are you talking about when you say:

you're only attacking those who have some suspicion of you.

[xRECKONERx]

"attacking" probably wasn't the best word for it. I guess I meant it seems like you're only vocal about players who suspect you while others slip under the radar.

[VP Baltar]

WHAT PLAYERS!

[xRECKONERx]

ABR, more recently.

[VP Baltar]

I was suspicious of ABR (and have continually been) before he made any sort of remarks about me. I also voted him today before he said anything about me and then he suddenly claimed I was scum.

Anything else?