Mini 914 ~ Mafia Reverberation (Game Over!)

[VP Baltar]

@VP, while apparently I have caught your attention - SerialClergyman is scum y/n?

I couldn't tell you at this point. I don't like his atypical lurking, but he claims to be busy in RL atm. I felt like he was putting a little effort earlier, but he has since dropped off the face of the game.

[Sotty7]

So far I like Hero and what he has posted up.

If we see a scum doublevoter I'd put hard money on one of, if not both, Sotty and Zoraster are scum.

What's the logic behind this?

Sotty, what's the difference between these two quotes?

Serial, why Porkens out of everyone?

Happy birthday SpyreX. WTF did you just do? And why did you do it to Sotty7?

From where I'm looking, there is no difference (except tone). Now let's go back to what you said earlier today:

I wouldn't argue against a MO wagon at this point. I think the reaction to Spy's double vote on me was fishy. He just asked why me and yet didn't give any opinions of the action itself. Felt like he was waiting to see how others reacted.

So by that logic, Sotty's above reaction was fishy, and you wouldn't argue against a Sotty wagon. Except you did when it happened.

Sotty looks hypocritical and scummy here.

Look again. MO asked Spy a question twice and then completely dropped it. He never added any opinions of his own to the debate even after Spy ignored his question the first time. In my case I asked the question ready to explain my theory around Spy/SC only for Serial to vote me and me throw my vote on him while explaining

why

I asked the question.

MO just seemed to be waiting to see what everyone else had to say, as exhibited by his echoing of “sotty is reactionary”

If MO had explained his thoughts on me or Spy's double vote that wouldn't have been fine. It wasn't until he was point blank asked did he regurgitate what others had already said well after the time. The initial “wtf” reaction from him makes me think he didn't agree with what Spy did. Now his reaction after the time is like he is cool with it all.

I really want to here Serial's latest thoughts.

[Herodotus]

Rhinox may have a decent point about purging multiple people simultaneously. But I don't think that the advantages of single-purging outweigh allowing the scum one kill per purged person, assuming the scum can kill.
And as far as town PR's go, keep in mind that Vi is the mod. If there's a cop, the entire scumteam could be investigation-immune.

[SpyreX]

So by that logic, Sotty's above reaction was fishy, and you wouldn't argue against a Sotty wagon. Except you did when it happened.

Sotty looks hypocritical and scummy here.

I like this.

That's not how I understand what she's been saying. At the beginning, she thought Serial was trying to deflect attention away from you, his buddy. Since then she's "not sold on Spy being scum", which I interpret as indecision.

Well, yea. Of course that indecision is on the townside but.

OH GRATE POWRFUL WIZERD SPRYEX

What happened between these posts?

Ready for this?

Nothing. :O

The wagon bothers me. However, the play also bothers me.

When in doubt, let God (OR POWERFUL WIZARDS) sort it out.

Rhinox may have a decent point about purging multiple people simultaneously. But I don't think that the advantages of single-purging outweigh allowing the scum one kill per purged person, assuming the scum can kill.
And as far as town PR's go, keep in mind that Vi is the mod. If there's a cop, the entire scumteam could be investigation-immune.

Yes and no.

Multiple lynches, again, put the weight in the town hands. Not the PR's, not the scum, just flat out good ol fashioned scumhunting.

As long as there are multiple people that need a ropin', I am totally for multiple people getting a ropin'. Day 1 or Day 10000.

[Mighty Orbots]

Look again. MO asked Spy a question twice and then completely dropped it. He never added any opinions of his own to the debate even after Spy ignored his question the first time.

Did I drop it or was I satisfied with the answer?

Easier to assume than ask amirite?

MO just seemed to be waiting to see what everyone else had to say, as exhibited by his echoing of “sotty is reactionary”

So... much.... irony!

You ARE reactionary. You just made this gigantic post after I said your name.

If MO had explained his thoughts on me or Spy's double vote that wouldn't have been fine. It wasn't until he was point blank asked did he regurgitate what others had already said well after the time. The initial “wtf” reaction from him makes me think he didn't agree with what Spy did. Now his reaction after the time is like he is cool with it all.

You're complaining that I answered a question? o_O (<- anime smiley)

I really want to here Serial's latest thoughts.

Ohnoes! You're echoing VP! Scumz0r!

I almost want to join the SottyWagon for the lulz.

Ready for this?

Nothing. :O

The wagon bothers me. However, the play also bothers me.

When in doubt, let God (OR POWERFUL WIZARDS) sort it out.

So what happens when POWERFUL WIZARDS can't seem to make up their minds?

[SpyreX]

So what happens when POWERFUL WIZARDS can't seem to make up their minds?

It's not really a "make up mind" kind of thing.

I don't like the shape of the wagon.
I don't like the play of the player.

The first could be a million things that don't make the player not scum for it.

[Jazzmyn]

I apologize but my work in real life has been exceedingly busy these past few days with hard deadlines, and great pressure to meet them, so I have not been able to give this game the attention it deserves. On the up side, things will improve by the end of business tomorrow (Friday) because by then the deadlines will have been met, and I will have lots of time after that and over the weekend, during which I intend to re-read this game from the beginning, do a thorough analysis, and post my thoughts, reads and observations, along with answering any outstanding questions directed to me.

Again, my apologies, but I

will

get back into it in full swing this weekend.

Regards,
Jazz

[Vi]

Incantation:

:arrow:

zoraster (P-4)

~

Jazzmyn

, Mighty Orbots,

VP Baltar

,

Jahudo

,

Nachomamma8

Sotty7 (P-5)

~

SerialClergyman

,

SpyreX

,

-INCANT-

,

Porkens

SerialClergyman (P-8)

~

Sotty7

Mighty Orbots (P-8) ~

zoraster

Rhinox (P-8)

~

Herodotus

Nachomamma8 (P-8)

~

Rhinox

Porkens (P-9)

~

Rhinox

--At Intensity ι, it will take 9 Incants to Purge...
--The Intensity will increase on Friday, February 5, 2010...

[Jahudo]

Sotty, I think you had asked an innocent question to SC about his Porkens vote. And maybe you would have given an opinion on it before pressed to.

But two people asked similar innocent questions to Spyrex about his doublevote before giving any opinions on the subject. I think it's scummy that you aren't holding yourself, and others, to the same tell you put on Orbots.

wtf is that about?

Happy birthday SpyreX. WTF did you just do? And why did you do it to Sotty7?

VP Baltar could also have been waiting for others to chime in before he gave opinions on the matter, but Sotty only makes it a tell on Orbots.
Why didn't you talk about VP's post being fishy?

If MO had explained his thoughts on me or Spy's double vote that wouldn't have been fine. It wasn't until he was point blank asked did he regurgitate what others had already said well after the time.

The fact remains that you did not give your opinion on SC's vote until he switched his vote to you, and put the pressure on you to defend by talking about your innocent question.

Incant: Sotty7

[SerialClergyman]

The only thing missing from Jahudo's point earlier was an incant, which I've been patiently waiting to see if he'll make. I'm very happy to see he has done so.

Anyone voting zoraster can now mention why aside from vagueries posted earlier, please.

[VP Baltar]

Anyone voting zoraster can now mention why aside from vagueries posted earlier, please.

I don't think any of my reasons have changed actually, nor do I think they were vague in the first place.

I think I'm going to have to more thoroughly review this Sotty case today because I feel like I'm missing something that apparently is obvious to others. Perhaps any one of you four can give me the highlights; it's that she is being reactionary to those attacking her and apparently hypocritical or selective in her scumhunting, right?

[Porkens]

incant; Rhinox

Just feel that, we could lynch them both... mmmmmm that sounds not only good but also sexy to me.

[Porkens]

zoraster (P-5) ~ Jazzmyn, Mighty Orbots, VP Baltar, Nachomamma8
Sotty7 (P-5) ~ SerialClergyman, SpyreX, -INCANT-, Jahudo

for reference. I say that Herod votes zora, Rhinox votes sotty, and they crossvote eachother. Then we only have to wait like 9 more days, right?

[Rhinox]

zoraster (P-5) ~ Jazzmyn, Mighty Orbots, VP Baltar, Nachomamma8
Sotty7 (P-5) ~ SerialClergyman, SpyreX, -INCANT-, Jahudo

for reference. I say that Herod votes zora, Rhinox votes sotty, and they crossvote eachother. Then we only have to wait like 9 more days, right?

So.... I'm scum, and your incanting me, but you want to lynch sotty and zor both? WTF?

[SpyreX]

? Makes sense to me.

I approve of it, overall.

[VP Baltar]

How does that make sense Spy? Do you think all three of them are scum? If so, why would we not purge Rhinox as well?

[SpyreX]

...

I guess I'm retarded. I blame the lack of sleep. Some work days I swear.

I thought that it was lynch all THREE of them, which makes sense to me.

The vote and wanting them cross-voting? No that doesn't make as much sense.

[zoraster]

Multiple lynches do NOT make sense, for all your statement of it putting power in "town's hands." All it does is allow scum to either bus or direct the lynch in the wrong direction, either way. At least that's what it does at this point; I'm open to the idea in future days, but I don't really see the value of it today.

In fact, I feel pretty strongly that as opposed to lynching both me and someone else, lynch me. Obviously I'd prefer you lynch someone else (why, Spyre, do you believe MO is anything but scum?), but as opposed to reducing the informational value of the lynch, I prefer taking the lynch. Perhaps I'm missing some crucial piece of reasoning that justifies the multiple lynch in one day strategy, but it seems entirely negative to me -- it increases the number of lynches but does not do so in a way that is helpful to town on Day 1.

For those who thought 177 was scummy or whatever: justify yourself. Name what part of it is scummy. Or at least be able to say it's gut. Let's get information from your claims rather than just a half-assed attempt to get by without doing real analysis.

[zoraster]

...

I guess I'm retarded. I blame the lack of sleep. Some work days I swear.

I thought that it was lynch all THREE of them, which makes sense to me.

The vote and wanting them cross-voting? No that doesn't make as much sense.

3 lynches on D1 is even worse than 2.

[SpyreX]

If I was a dayvig, would you tell me to not take a shot day 1?

[zoraster]

I'm sure you're aware of the differences between a vigil shot and lynches, right?

Vigil, at least from the vigil's standpoint, is 100% town and his kill has little chance of ultimately being driven by scum to town or being bussed at scum to further strengthen another scum player.

Lynches, on the other hand, can be. Which can be helpful under normal scenarios, but once you start to reduce the number required and spread out the number of players voting each player, you increase the power that each of these has.

[Rhinox]

I don't support any plan that includes lynching Zor today. He's seeming town.

I'm still thinking a porkens or nacho lynch are better than sotty as well.

[SpyreX]

Yes I am fully aware of the difference.

However, when you've approached this from an informational aspect as part of the argument that has to be addressed. Especially the "helpful to the town" business.

As for the vigil is 100% aspect - this falls apart on both sides:

1.) You're claiming a vigilante kill is not influenced by the game as a whole via the whole "little chance of being driven by scum".
2.) You're claiming that a vote, somehow, is inherently more manipulated. The same argument that applies to the vigilante being 100% town to themselves applies to my vote(s) being 100% town.

However, my biggest issue with this condemnation (aside from the whole self-serving side) is the fact that I can't wrap my head around what new mysterious powers to manipulate a lynch scum possess with multiple lynches versus a single one.

If anything, the fact that multiple lynches CAN occur is a town gain - competing wagons can be analyzed simultaneously versus allowing for two night kills to garner the same amount of data.

Then there is the added variables of "what do I do when my scum-bro is up for lynch" aspect. With the knowledge that, like I said early, being on a scum-lynching wagon isn't going to be as many near town points the bussing is less useful... but consistently pushing other canidates STILL will make you look bad overall. So, there is more indecision and room for error when the simple fact is the majority can eat the manipulations versus allowing another day to pass is A++ awesome.

And, if the final piece is that multiple lynches increases the overall value of a single vote well... good. Simple statistics again says that favors the town.

[zoraster]

1.) You're claiming a vigilante kill is not influenced by the game as a whole via the whole "little chance of being driven by scum".

If you quote me, please quote me correctly. I said, "little chance of

ultimately

being driven by scum."

The ultimate decision to lynch is not necessarily in a townies hands. The ultimate decision to shoot someone as a vigil is. Yes, a vigil might be influenced by scum to shoot incorrectly. But that ultimate decision is not made by the scum.

2.) You're claiming that a vote, somehow, is inherently more manipulated. The same argument that applies to the vigilante being 100% town to themselves applies to my vote(s) being 100% town.

I think the point above addresses this pretty well, but suffice it to say there is a definite difference between being the sole arbiter of who gets shot and being one of 3 or 4 people who are deciding to lynch someone.

Put yourself in a hypothetical: it's lylo and you could either have the normal lynch situation OR you could have a dayvig as one of the townies. Which do you pick? If you decide anything other than dayvig, you're out of your mind.

--

Then there is the added variables of "what do I do when my scum-bro is up for lynch" aspect. With the knowledge that, like I said early, being on a scum-lynching wagon isn't going to be as many near town points the bussing is less useful... but consistently pushing other canidates STILL will make you look bad overall. So, there is more indecision and room for error when the simple fact is the majority can eat the manipulations versus allowing another day to pass is A++ awesome.

I'm afraid I didn't understand this point. Can you clarify?

And, if the final piece is that multiple lynches increases the overall value of a single vote well... good. Simple statistics again says that favors the town.

It increases the power of a single vote, but it decreases the interpretive power of each lynch.

---
Let me ask you this hypothetical (I know I'm going hypo heavy today, but whatever): Let's say we were playing a nightless game. Which would be more likely to lynch scum: each lynch sequentially or combining lynches? What are all of the reasons this is true?

I know that hypothetical is not analogous (a scum kill coming in between each is of utmost importance), but it does serve to examine some of the hidden principles underlying this idea of combined lynches.

[VP Baltar]

I am of the pretty strong opinion that we should not purge more than two players, at least for the first phase. Not knowing what will happen in the night phase is a big variable that I would like to see before we push more purges than that at a time.

That being said, zor's argument against it is silly. Zor, what do you think the probability is that scum could influence multiple purges effectively this early in the game when they are so strongly out numbered? My guess is that if the town gets at least on a somewhat correct path for day 1 (ie purging at least one scum), the other scums would have a hard time dealing with the situation in a way that did not make them stand out.

Going to start looking at the sotty case now, but I'd still like someone on the wagon who is around to help me understand the arguments better.