Open 186; Jungle Republic (Game Over)

[Lowell]

My top three are:

1. Lowell
2. Flave
3.RV

Lowell's flopping of stances on Saber largely leads me to believe that there is indeed a connection between the two.

Scott had a strong point of leaving Saber be when everyone was going after him. But I'm not as sure about RV as the other two.

This post makes you look like you put no thought into this idea at all. So, basically, this is exactly what I thought might happen. Lynx is trying to plant the seed to vote for me (knowing that others have already shown willingness to do so throughout this game) while giving just enough vague reasons for it. My reaction to saber? On D1? Really? This post is either incredibly lazy or incredibly scummy. At this point with majority scum left I'm inclined to believe the latter.

This, to me, is an attempt to soften the ground for anyone tempted to vote for Lowell, without having to get in the fray himself. Someone sees it, says "yeah, okay, if it can help reach a majority... whatever." If it doesn't happen, he'll just jump somewhere else.

[Furry]

Vote Lynx

Rifka would be my next choice.

Then Lowell or Jazz. Hard to pick one of them.

You know... is there some sort of a rule that whenever I say "if A is scum B is scum" they have to vote eachother in the next post?

Lets hear a case hun.

[Lynx The Antithesis]

My top three are:

1. Lowell
2. Flave
3.RV

Lowell's flopping of stances on Saber largely leads me to believe that there is indeed a connection between the two.

Scott had a strong point of leaving Saber be when everyone was going after him. But I'm not as sure about RV as the other two.

This post makes you look like you put no thought into this idea at all. So, basically, this is exactly what I thought might happen. Lynx is trying to plant the seed to vote for me (knowing that others have already shown willingness to do so throughout this game) while giving just enough vague reasons for it. My reaction to saber? On D1? Really? This post is either incredibly lazy or incredibly scummy. At this point with majority scum left I'm inclined to believe the latter.

This, to me, is an attempt to soften the ground for anyone tempted to vote for Lowell, without having to get in the fray himself. Someone sees it, says "yeah, okay, if it can help reach a majority... whatever." If it doesn't happen, he'll just jump somewhere else.

I'll admit, Lowell, I'm lazy. After the lag on the game, my interest severely dwindled. But It's ridiculous for you to call out my detail when your every post is concise and vague. You said, "Dank and Saber look town". That doesn't exactly shine with information. I've considered you scummy for basically the entire game. There have been multiple posts illustrating this. I find your suprise and sudden defense right now after all this time to suspicious. The only reason I haven't been going after you is because the last wolf was the first priority. I've been on you probably the most out of every player here.

How about you tell us who you suspect already instead of only trying to defend yourself and stall in order to see where everyone's suspicions are.

Could you also please explain why you only commented on my post and not Flave's list with a similar level of information? Why only question mine when we both included you in our suspicions?

The only reason I haven't voted you was because I wanted to see if Flave's list would in anyway further solidify a connection between you. I'm sure he only added your name to his list because two people suspect a connection between you and him.

Vote:Lowell

[Lowell]

I still don't like the "I'll vote for either, oh also I'm lazy" justification. My problem is it's just an easy vote, basically. That's why towns lose games, because town latches onto an easy idea, or because no one takes on scummy people who posit them.

fos lynx

[Flava Flave]

Furry, I've been after Lynx since I came into the game. Only thing is other players were scummier (BicMC, Memorable until Sanhora replaced him, and Dank).

I'd read through 5 pages and posted saying my top suspects were BigMC, Memorable, and Lynx. I came back later, admittedly with more reading to do, and backed up my suspicions on Lynx a little more by saying that I saw a lot of "people pleaser" posts and that his reasoning for voting Saber looked very policy-like, yet he went way out of his way to separate himself from any kind of policy lynch by saying that he genuinely suspected Saber. His response was that he did, in fact, suspect Saber. But his reasons for suspecting Saber were entirely policy-sounding reasons. When Lynx was told that Saber was doing this in all of his games, he ignored that and said it didn't matter. He said he still suspected Saber for these things.

In my catch-up post, I said that he twisted something Scott had said about Memorable. I don't remember this, but I trust my earlier judgement. I may need to re-think a Lynx/Rifka connection. They probably aren't scum together if that was a strong twist of words. I'll need to look back after we get a flip from either Lynx or Rifka.

Note my list at the end of my catch-up post. BigMC is my top suspect, but after him comes Lynx. The only reason Dank jumped to the top after BigMC flipped wolf is because I saw such a strong connection (will anyone get pissed if I gloat that I was right?). Now that that's over with, I'm going back to Lynx.

When BigMC and myself were the top wagons Day 1, Lynx said that we'd get more info lynching BigMC or myself over anyone else. He said that was because we already had wagons that could be looked at. Well, for a lynch to happen, there WILL BE a wagon regardless of the speed and who is on it. Personally, if a speedlynch formed in the last hour before deadline on someone else, I think that would give us even more info than a lazy half-assed "oh shit, deadline" lynch. I do agree with the conclusion that with two major wagons near a deadline, a vote for anyone else is a wasted vote, but I disagree with his reasoning for why. Hell, maybe this is a theory disagreement, so I don't hold this as a major point against Lynx. I'll leave this paragraph here though

so it's a lot of words and people think I have a strong case

so you can follow my thought process.

Let me also pull a page out of Furry's book here. I'm gonna look at the vote counts.

L-1 saberwolf: Memorable Raindrops, bigmc109, Paradoxombie, dank, Lynx The Antithesis, hewitt
bigmc109: curiouskarmadog, Budja, Lowell
Memorable Raindrops: Scott Brosius, saberwolf
Lynx The Antithesis: GinzkeyPlatz

This was Saber at L-1. Both wolves are on the Saber wagon at it's peak. This could have been used against them, but they're dead and that's not what we are after. Memorable and Paradox were town and are dead. Ignore those names. Removing them, here's the wagon:
L-1 saberwolf: Lynx The Antithesis, hewitt

I realize no one knows Saber's (my) alignment yet, so let's take both views into account. If I'm scum, look at their votes and decide if they were bussing. Knowing myself to be town though, I don't see how there could possibly be nobody at all from the mafia on this wagon. Lynx or Hewitt is very likely to be scum, if not both. This is from this alone remember. I have a town read on Hewitt (now Furry) though I may rethink that.

Now, let's look at another familiar bandwagon.

bigmc109: curiouskarmadog, Lowell, Flava Flave, Jazzmyn, Lynx The Antithesis, dank, Paradoxombie
Lowell: hewitt
Flava Flave: bigmc109
Sanhora: Scott Brosius
Jazzmyn: Sanhora

Not Voting: danakillsu

Know what this is? That's right. A scum lynch. Ok, you can say what I know you're going to say. "Hey Flav, why are you using a lynch on a scum group that's already dead to try to catch scum?" Well, class, pay attention. You may learn something.

Put yourself in the mafia's shoes. Class, I'd like to introduce you to BigMC. Say hi to BigMC. "Hi BigMC". BigMC is a scum. He is a nuisance. He will be gone after Day 1. I apologize for this inconvenience. (Credit to the movie, Billy Madison). "Flav, how will the mafia react to this werewolf?" Ah, I was just getting to that, class. You see, since the mafia don't know BigMC's alignment at this point, they know he's either a scummy townie or a werewolf. Their biggest threat is the wolves because the wolves can NK. If MC isn't a wolf, they won't look so bad lynching him still, because he was scummy. We have 3 living mafia. Odds are EXTREMELY low that none of them were on this lynch.

So, let us begin. Remember the lynch I just showed you? We're going to do an exercise which is due before you leave class.

bigmc109: curiouskarmadog, Lowell, Flava Flave, Jazzmyn, Lynx The Antithesis, dank, Paradoxombie

Let us remove The dead players.

bigmc109: Lowell, Flava Flave, Jazzmyn, Lynx The Antithesis

Here we are. I personally know that I'm town. That leaves us with Lowell, Jazz, and Lynx. At least one of these three players is a scum. If I'm wrong, I will personally put my $100 shoes in dog shit, rub it in real good, eat it off of there, and post the video online.

Want my best bet? Look back at the Saber wagon. Now look again at the MC lynch. "Yo teach, Lynx's name is there twice". Very good, little Johnny.

I have two more things to show you.

Paradoxombie: havingfitz, Lynx The Antithesis, curiouskarmadog, Flava Flave, Jazzmyn, Lowell

The Paradox (town) lynch. By now, we know how this works. Dead players, please leave. Um, please? I SAID LEAVE! "They can't, they're dead." Oh, how could I forget? Ok, little Johnny, can you drag them out to the forest? Don't ask questions, just do it. And put these gloves on. Oh, and bring my shovel out for me too. Oh, Fitz, you can step out too because you're the seer.

Paradoxombie: Lynx The Antithesis, Flava Flave, Jazzmyn, Lowell

Look familiar? Yes, I know I'm on this one too. If I were scum, we'd have to discount the Saber wagon and probably call Lynx town, meaning Jazz and Lowell are obvscum.

One more.

Paradoxombie (Dank): Flava Flave, Riftka Viveka, havingfitz, Jazzmyn, Furry

Remove those that need removing.

Paradoxombie: Flava Flave, Riftka Viveka, Jazzmyn, Furry

K, so two of the scum are:
Lynx
Jazz

If I were to flip scum, you'd be best looking at:
Jazz
Lowell

I'm sorry this was so long, but I tried to keep it interesting so you'd read it.

[Flava Flave]

tl;dr: Lynx and Jazz are scum.

[Flava Flave]

I'm sure he only added your name to his list because two people suspect a connection between you and him.

Vote:Lowell

No, I've had a town read on Lowell, but I've had town reads on most of who is left as well. He's one of my weaker town reads, so he makes the list.

Here's my current list, town on top, scum on bottom:
Flava Flave
havingfitz
Furry
Lowell
Rifka Viveka
Jazzmyn
Lynx The Antithesis

To be perfectly honest, knowing where we're at, I'm not confident calling anyone town except Fitz and myself. I'm kind of shaky putting Furry up as my next highest town read, but he's townier than anyone else here. Actually, if I were to post this list in a couple of days, there's a chance that Furry, Lowell, and Rifka could move around in those three spots. All I'm sure on is Lynx and Jazz as scum. The third is gonna be difficult to catch. But at least we know we'll have a confirmed townie (Fitz) alive in endgame.

[havingfitz]

RL keeping me down as well. I am going on vacation tomorrow and will be

v/LA until the 14th

. I should have internet access but I will only be able to check in briefly when I do check in. I have a word doc with this game in it...I'll try to do some more analysis while I'm travelling and make a contribution. It would appear Lowell and Lynx are a common thread though. Where has RV gone?

Vote: Lowell

[Lynx The Antithesis]

I still don't like the "I'll vote for either, oh also I'm lazy" justification. My problem is it's just an easy vote, basically. That's why towns lose games, because town latches onto an easy idea, or because no one takes on scummy people who posit them.

fos lynx

Hello?! Once again, you've either ignored or not answered me. The lazy part only justifies the lack of info on you. I'll get around to it.

Who are your suspects? Post your top 3 now.

I got class in ten minutes, but I'll respond to Flave in a little bit.

[Lynx The Antithesis]

I'd read through 5 pages and posted saying my top suspects were BigMC, Memorable, and Lynx. I came back later, admittedly with more reading to do, and backed up my suspicions on Lynx a little more by saying that I saw a lot of "people pleaser" posts and that his reasoning for voting Saber looked very policy-like, yet he went way out of his way to separate himself from any kind of policy lynch by saying that he genuinely suspected Saber. His response was that he did, in fact, suspect Saber. But his reasons for suspecting Saber were entirely policy-sounding reasons. When Lynx was told that Saber was doing this in all of his games, he ignored that and said it didn't matter. He said he still suspected Saber for these things.

A policy vote in this case is the attempt to remove a player regardless of alignment due to outside related issues with the person. Considering I did not want his outside games to influence my read on him here shows that it doesn't fall under this. Paradox's vote to remove him due to annoyance would though. Mine was strictly related to this game's voting patterns and play of him. His opportunistic jump on Memorable Raindrops and BigMc(yes, I know he was scum, but scum Saber would also not know this). Any wagon that would divert attention away from himself. Along with his threat to self-hammer they cannot just be defended because he does this "everywhere". No, it's scummy and I wouldn't let it slide. You can't just explain away anything he does that is scummy that he does this everyone.Every game has different circumstances so using it to justify anything he does is ridiculous. Saber claimed to be avoiding having a meta, but his play here only solidifies it.

When BigMC and myself were the top wagons Day 1, Lynx said that we'd get more info lynching BigMC or myself over anyone else. He said that was because we already had wagons that could be looked at. Well, for a lynch to happen, there WILL BE a wagon regardless of the speed and who is on it. Personally, if a speedlynch formed in the last hour before deadline on someone else, I think that would give us even more info than a lazy half-assed "oh shit, deadline" lynch. I do agree with the conclusion that with two major wagons near a deadline, a vote for anyone else is a wasted vote, but I disagree with his reasoning for why. Hell, maybe this is a theory disagreement, so I don't hold this as a major point against Lynx. I'll leave this paragraph here though so it's a lot of words and people think I have a strong case so you can follow my thought process.

I don't understand the point of this. You say yourself it's just a theoretical disagreement so why bother posting it? There had been multiple, multiple attacks on you and BigMc throughout day 1. I just stated clearly that it's obviously coming down between you two. I asked you to produce a suitable addition to you two and you failed to give anything.

This was Saber at L-1. Both wolves are on the Saber wagon at it's peak. This could have been used against them, but they're dead and that's not what we are after. Memorable and Paradox were town and are dead. Ignore those names. Removing them, here's the wagon:
L-1 saberwolf: Lynx The Antithesis, hewitt

I realize no one knows Saber's (my) alignment yet, so let's take both views into account. If I'm scum, look at their votes and decide if they were bussing. Knowing myself to be town though, I don't see how there could possibly be nobody at all from the mafia on this wagon. Lynx or Hewitt is very likely to be scum, if not both. This is from this alone remember. I have a town read on Hewitt (now Furry) though I may rethink that.

This doesn't help anyone else besides yourself because we don't know your alignment.

If you're scum, why should we look if we're bussing? We should look that there's a good chance you're scum. That way one mafia is being attacked by 2 wolves and 3 town. Probably even 4 town with Jazz looking townie. I don't find that too far-fetched or that unlikely.

bigmc109: curiouskarmadog, Lowell, Flava Flave, Jazzmyn, Lynx The Antithesis, dank, Paradoxombie
Lowell: hewitt
Flava Flave: bigmc109
Sanhora: Scott Brosius
Jazzmyn: Sanhora

Not Voting: danakillsu

Know what this is? That's right. A scum lynch. Ok, you can say what I know you're going to say. "Hey Flav, why are you using a lynch on a scum group that's already dead to try to catch scum?" Well, class, pay attention. You may learn something.

Put yourself in the mafia's shoes. Class, I'd like to introduce you to BigMC. Say hi to BigMC. "Hi BigMC". BigMC is a scum. He is a nuisance. He will be gone after Day 1. I apologize for this inconvenience. (Credit to the movie, Billy Madison). "Flav, how will the mafia react to this werewolf?" Ah, I was just getting to that, class. You see, since the mafia don't know BigMC's alignment at this point, they know he's either a scummy townie or a werewolf. Their biggest threat is the wolves because the wolves can NK. If MC isn't a wolf, they won't look so bad lynching him still, because he was scummy. We have 3 living mafia. Odds are EXTREMELY low that none of them were on this lynch.

What exactly does this prove? Haha you and lowell were on this wagon as well.

The strange thing was that you and Lowell were also on the Paradox wagon. The only reason you weren't on all three as well was because one was on yourself. If you remember, Lowell was on the Saber wagon for quite awhile until he very suspiciously, utterly went back and forth on you in a manner of like 7 posts. So overall, nice job concealing Lowell in your argument while puhing me. You pointed out a scum lynchand a town lynch. Both of which you and lowell were also part of. And also you included an unrevealed L-1 wagon on you most likely scum. I see nothing remarkable. All I see is me probably being on 1 wolf wagon, 1 town wagon, and most likely a scum wagon. Seems about right.

If I were to flip scum, you'd be best looking at:
Jazz
Lowell

This alone makes me want to switch my vote to you. Never, never say if I were to flip scum. Why would I townie possibly present this? You're right, no townie would ever use an example such as this. It is so incredibly scummy that it makes me want to lynch you right now. Nice job including one of your partners and one townie. Should certainly throw us off after you actually flip scum... yeah right.

Major FOS: Flave

Plain and simple, Lowell and Flave are partners with Rv being the likely third.

(Outside Note)I did like your presentation though. Creative and amusing, but lacking of actual substance.

HavingFitz, do you think me and Lowell are scum together or only separately?

Furry, do you still believe it's likely these two are scum with me after they've both focused largely on me right from the start of this Day?

[Lynx The Antithesis]

Lynx wrote:
Post 302 when I answered CKD outlines my reasons for my vote.


So it's 100% based on Saber's actions. Awesome.

Well it shouldn't be a suprise considering Saber was playing your role for a majority of the game.

Based on your reasoning, any player lynched in any game of mafia would provide an equal amount of information.

Based on what I've seen in this game (a connection between BigMC and Dank, but I'm waiting for a flip before I push that just to be sure), a BigMC lynch provides the most info.

No certainly not. For instance, a lynch on like scott who has lurked as of late and had a minimal amount of posting would provide us with the bare minimum. Not every player has commented on Scott so we wouldn't be able to read as many ties between him and the town obviously.

No, there's no excuse for trying to be lynched in every game you play. Still, it's a null tell

This is a stretch. You know for a fact that he's tried to be lynched in every game of his?

Lowell, I feel has explained himself. He saw what he interpreted as scummy actions, so he voted. Then he saw Saber actually being helpful (which he did just before he was replaced) and changed his mind. There is nothing scummy about logically changing your mind.

Actually, Lowell explains his thought process again in his last post.

But the problem is that Saber made all of three posts to create this change. Most of which were very minimal and not enough to influence such a major change from a town read to completely deserving of a lynch. Let's see:

Post 267

dank and saber both look town to me, despite their lover's spats.

Post 268

I think CKD and Lowell should join me on this BW, then we're tied 6-6, and we can have an ultimate BW showdown

Post 271

so what did I sow?

Post 275

I can't quit, or I lose my bet. You already know that hewitt.

Post 296

I think saber's recent behavior deserves a lynch.

I'll give dan a chance to chime in, however.

Flave, do you not find it odd that those three small posts caused a complete 180 on Saber? Or do you believe those three posts by Saber are scummy enough to warrant such an abrupt shift?

This was the my main problem with Lowell and still is.

[Furry]

Furry, do you still believe it's likely these two are scum with me after they've both focused largely on me right from the start of this Day?

Well lowell is more in flail mode (knows they are dead so are just shutting up), but yeah you-FF is out the window at at this point.

Im planning on voting lowell soon here, but want to see what else I can scrounge up.

@all - Does anyone think lowell is town? Someone else is more likely scum?

[havingfitz]

HavingFitz, do you think me and Lowell are scum together or only separately?

I haven't linked the two of you together...nor have I tried.

[ZEEnon]

Vote Count:

Lowell:

Lynx The Antithesis, havingfitz

Lynx The Antithesis:

Flava Flave

Not Voting: Jazzmyn, Furry, Lowell, Riftka Viveka

With 7 players alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
Deadline: February 23rd, 2010 at approximately 10 p.m.

[Lowell]

@fitz- big mistake. Scumbuddies show up and the game is over.

vote lynx

. Flave's case is good, and besides if lynx isnt' scum we're screwed anway.

[Rifka Viveka]

Top suspects is lowell, FF right now

Lowell you just did the same thing you accused someone else of

[Furry]

@RV - If your top suspect is lowell, why arent you voting him?

IIRC Jazz has Lowell as a top suspect too, he is in my top two, I think FF is the only one who doesnt think he is scum, which is a bit of a cause for concern, but the counterwagon appearing on Lynx makes me think Lowell is scum.

Once Jazz checks in im voting.

[Furry]

The cool part is the thing I opened the day im talking about looks like it might happen.

[Rifka Viveka]

Vote: lowell

good point, i should put my money where my mouth is

[Furry]

Checking in to say im not hammering.

[Rifka Viveka]

unvote

hmm L-1?

[Furry]

Vote Lynx

Gambit time

[Rifka Viveka]

unvote
vote lynx

[Furry]

heh

[Jazzmyn]

Uh oh. That sounds like the scum just won.

Sorry that I wasn't able to get here sooner; it's been a hellish week IRL.

Regards,
Jazz