Mini 914 ~ Mafia Reverberation (Game Over!)

[Herodotus]

Here's a paraphrase of his last post (Jan 28th) in our QT

You admit to having a QT? SCUM SLIP!!!11!!

Troll honestly does seem to be busy with RL. I don't care so much about his absence at this time.

I get that. It's not that I think one half of a hydra lurking is scummy, it's just that I value his analytical abilities.

I (still) think the wagon on Sotty is weak, but I'm confounded by the players voting her. SC and Spy seem to be tunneling hard on the basis of things I don't think suggest a scum alignment. If either SC or Spyrex is town, and Sotty is too, I demand at least the right to say "I told you so" in the postgame.
I'm tempted to analyze her wagon (and those not on it) in more depth, but if she ends up purged, it might be better to wait until we've seen her flip.

[VP Baltar]

I agree that the Sotty wagon sucks. As someone who has played with her plenty, including as scum partners and masons to give me extra insight into her thought processes, my gut really tells me strongly that she's town in this instance.

This read might change in coming days if I see something truly scummy from her, but I definitely think there are better purges out there right now (zoraster or SC or porkens, for example).

[Vi]

Incantation:

:arrow:

Sotty7 (P-4)

~

SerialClergyman

,

SpyreX

,

-INCANT-

:arrow:

SerialClergyman (P-4)

~

VP Baltar

,

Jazzmyn

,

Sotty7

:arrow:

zoraster (P-4)

~ Mighty Orbots,

Nikanor (Nachomamma8)

,

Jahudo

Porkens (P-5)

~

Herodotus

,

Rhinox

Mighty Orbots (P-6) ~

zoraster

Rhinox (P-6)

~

Porkens

Nikanor (Nachomamma8) (P-6)

~

Rhinox

--At Intensity η, it will take 7 Incants to Purge...
--The Intensity will increase on Thursday, February 11, 2010...

[SerialClergyman]

VP, why me?

[VP Baltar]

Didn't we already discuss this? Until I read your town meta (I'm hoping tomorrow, just replaced into kind of a long game and I'm catching up reading there first) and I'm dissuaded, I'm sticking by my gut that your tunneling here is not coming from town.

Didn't I ask you a question today as well?

[SerialClergyman]

You gave meta reasons for your arguments, I answered them in what I thought was a very thorough way yesterday and then you said you wanted me lyched, which seemed strange. I hadn't realised you were yet to confirm the meta issue.

You did, but when I started answering it I didn't see much of a game-related purpose to it. I'll paste as far as I got:

VP - You could consider all sorts of things a failure. I think it taught me a bit about mafia, and that while my town reads are good they are not perfect, even when I'm being conservative. They also taught me how to play from a base of low political capital, because different = suspicious. As for tunnelling, it's hard. I can't just drop a case because time has passed, or because I *should* look elsewhere. I tend to argue for the person I want lynched and while I definitely change my mind, I need something better.

And like anything with mafia, tunnelling is a nice neutral way to chainsaw defend someone. I don't know. I'm still thinking about it. I like experimenting with my playstyle.

I'm not quite sure I like how the narrative of this game is going. The main suspects for lynches are the various parties in my little wagon on porkens then switch to Sotty play. Everyone else seems to be settled in with popcorn without getting their hands dirty. I'm tunnelled, apparantly, which means I'm not considering other people's scumminess. However while a lot of people are psyched to say tunnelled, very few are psyched to show me a case where my vote should be instead, or a direction I should be looking.

Sotty - I like my vote on you, it's a good D1 vote. I'm certainly not convinced you're scum, I've only got 15ish posts by you to make a decision. I'll move my vote if and when there's a better target. There are others I think are scummy, but none at your level at this point in time.

[SpyreX]

I (still) think the wagon on Sotty is weak, but I'm confounded by the players voting her. SC and Spy seem to be tunneling hard on the basis of things I don't think suggest a scum alignment. If either SC or Spyrex is town, and Sotty is too, I demand at least the right to say "I told you so" in the postgame.
I'm tempted to analyze her wagon (and those not on it) in more depth, but if she ends up purged, it might be better to wait until we've seen her flip.

This post really, really gives me that itch.

Maybe its the suggestion of me tunnelling.
Maybe its the I told you so.
Maybe, maybe, its the statement that he's going to analyze the wagon when...he just did since SC and I are the only ones on it.

Maybe its all three.

Maybe I can't decide who to lynch.

Which was followed by a complete fall of the face of the earth until he started getting votes.

Maybe you have a point.
Maybe you're exaggerating "falling off the face of the earth" to the point where your point bothers me.
Maybe the amount of time he was gone at maximum (3 days) was one whole day more than yours around the same time.

Maybe I like saying maybe.

Maybe we should be lynching some suckers instead of apathy wagons becoming the lynches.

Maybe if that happens I'll do everything in my power to power-lynch the people not on these wagons or taking concrete stances.

Maybe I still would like to see Sotty, Zor and Rhinox lynched.

[Porkens]

I'd like to see the day end with 3-4 lynches, some popular, some not. I really don't care who those lynches are. There, I said it.

[Jahudo]

Where's our mystery guest, Nikanor?

I (still) think the wagon on Sotty is weak, but I'm confounded by the players voting her. SC and Spy seem to be tunneling hard on the basis of things I don't think suggest a scum alignment. If either SC or Spyrex is town, and Sotty is too, I demand at least the right to say "I told you so" in the postgame.
I'm tempted to analyze her wagon (and those not on it) in more depth, but if she ends up purged, it might be better to wait until we've seen her flip.

This sounds like you'd already be willing to purge SC/Spy if Sotty flipped town, but that you also wouldn't terribly mind seeing Sotty purge if it helps you decide on SC/Spy. Is that accurate?

I don't think there's any possibility that they are all scum, and it's probably unlikely that 2 of them are anti-town. But 1 of 3? Sure.

Maybe they aren't great lynches, but they aren't BAD lynches by any stretch.

I'd like to see the day end with 3-4 lynches, some popular, some not. I really don't care who those lynches are. There, I said it.

Okay, you've made it clear you're pushing the wagons from the outside. But do you have any substantial reason for liking the wagons besides Sotty's flailing? Or are you guessing at probabilities with the other two? Because I see no reason not to purge you next if we lose 3-4 townies today and you were pushing for them without pushing them.

[Porkens]

Don't think of me as pushing from the outside. I'm not on any of them only to keep them even. If necessary, I'll put myself on anyone to keep them even.

I don't think probability is the strongest argument, but there's certainly some there. I wont say that there is for sure a scum amongst them, but who knows.

I love the idea of lynching 3 people, among other reasons, just to see how it affects day two.

I think without worrying about paranoia, many feel the same allure.

Your threats fall on deaf ears. Put me at even lynch with them as well and I'll go, too.

[Mighty Orbots]

Here's a paraphrase of his last post (Jan 28th) in our QT

You admit to having a QT? SCUM SLIP!!!11!!

FFFFFFFFUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU

I love the idea of lynching 3 people, among other reasons, just to see how it affects day two.

Jeez you're a bloodthirsty lot. Can we look at this for a second?

Let's say we lynch 3 and all 3 are town. Scum get their NK. Typical setup in mini theme is 9 town 3 scum. So tomorrow we start with 5 town 3 scum, aka Lylo.

Why the hell are people so gung-ho for this?

[VP Baltar]

There should be no more than two purges on Day 1.

[Sotty7]

@Sotty: I feel like your trying to fabricate something. I commented on your wagon and spoke out against it, before being prompted, by saying I preferred others. Does that sound like I was waiting to hop on your wagon if it took off?

I'm also still waiting to hear about those other big thingS you claimed I was avoiding mentioning.

I'm not fabricating anything.

At the height of my wagon you said nothing. You didn't comment on Spy's double vote accept to ask if was passive or active. You didn't comment on Serial, you didn't comment on me. I'd say that these are all pretty big things you avoided until your 10th post of the game.

I will admit to not really seeing your case on Nacho. Even when I went back and iso'ed. I'll try and get my head around it again. But to me it's like you are posting to appear active while not actually doing much.

The more Porken's posts, the more I want to see him purged.

I have been thinking about what to do with this... But I have decided to just announce that I to have a double vote. I breadcrumbed this a little and it is why I wasn't keen to just give Spy a pass because he has a double vote. I also haven't used it yet because my double vote is a one off thing. Once I place it, I can't move it and it is gone once a purge is reached. It's like a one shot.

Now I look at the wagons and there is three of us are tied and will be purged if everything stays the same. I could just use my double vote on Serial or Zora in an attempt to save myself but I don't see that getting me very far. Despite some people saying my wagon is weak, others don't agree so I would still be under some fire.

I do think the game is better off with me in it however, and I think purging Serial and Zora today are two very good options. Zora is lurking like a mofo and Serial seems to be all over the place when it comes to me. I get the feeling he is just keeping his vote on me so I am tied with him. I could be convinced to purge one of Porken's or Rhinox instead, but I really don't think we should be purging more than two people today.

I guess I am claiming this now because there are four votes out there that aren't on the lead wagons and if people were worried about upsetting the balance I wanted everyone to know that I can move another person up. So yeah... We're getting some what close to deadline it's time to start coming together and sorting this out.

[Porkens]

VOP, who would you like to see get off the hook scott free?

Psh, the more I post the more you want to see my lynched. I'm just saying what everyone is thinking.

[Vi]

Incantation:

:arrow:

Sotty7 (P-4)

~

SerialClergyman

,

SpyreX

,

-INCANT-

:arrow:

SerialClergyman (P-4)

~

VP Baltar

,

Jazzmyn

,

Sotty7

:arrow:

zoraster (P-4)

~ Mighty Orbots,

Nikanor

,

Jahudo

Porkens (P-5)

~

Herodotus

,

Rhinox

Mighty Orbots (P-6) ~

zoraster

Rhinox (P-6)

~

Porkens

--At Intensity η, it will take 7 Incants to Purge...
--The Intensity will increase on Thursday, February 11, 2010...

[VP Baltar]

I assume that's directed at me Porkens. I would not like to see Sotty purged today. The other two need to go (pending some reading of SC's self meta).

Do you think I haven't made this clear?

[Jahudo]

I don't think Sotty's claim changes anything. Both Sotty and Spy could still be town because we don't know how many factions / anti-town players are in the game. The difference in power could be mod trickyness.

And Sotty doublevoting to prevent her purge would have looked scummy, so the timing of this claim doesn't affect me.

Mod: Can you prod zoraster?

Done. ~Vi

[SpyreX]

I don't think there is a difference in power; check the OP after modifications to some roles.

That said I still don't like the dance, but it makes senseish.

I'm still not down with SC though. And still not Porkens.

Zor the magnificent and probably a Rhino would be where I'd go.

Since I can't vote for Zor right now,

Incantum: Rhinox

[SerialClergyman]

The analysis of 3 lynches was pretty spurious.

The real thing to ponder is how important is lynching with iformaion compared to accepting night kills.

If we lynch 3 people now, then we'll start tomorrow with 8 people left, effective lylo if 3 scum and they're still alive.

If we lynch 1 person now and 1 person tomorrow, we'll end up with 8 people left, effective lylo if 3 scum and they're still alive.

The difference between the scenarios is that in the first there are 3 'town-decided' kills to 1 'scum-decided' kill, compared to 2 town and 2 scum. On the other hand, in the second scenario our second lynch happens after two flips, so our informational advantage is significantly higher for that one kill.

I don't know what to do about Sotty's claim. It has me pondering a massclaim. Either way I'm thinking I probably shouldn't be voting her.

Incant Jahudo

[VP Baltar]

@ SC - looking at the games you provided, here is my response to them:

Quick and Dirty - Perhaps mild tunneling, but not to the extent of this game. you wanted to lynch ODDin or Amished and eventually directed yourself toward Amished. You also were discussing other angles. In this game you started with Sotty and didn't move.

No Frills Mafia - Again, no tunnelling here. You seriously vote no less than 3 players early on.

Gif Mafia - Nope, plenty of voting for different players happening here. This game is also a bit old to be used as meta for you as well.

Hambargarz Mafia- This is the closest resemblance I see to this game. You do seem to tunnel on IdiotKing here, but I do sense you at least probing other directions a little. Regardless of that, this is older than Gif mafia (almost a year old).

I only gave these a cursory skim and for who you were directing your comments/attacks at and voting for, so if you think I'm way off base in any of these please point it out and I'll try to find the time to look in great detail. I do encourage the rest of the town to look at these as well and reach their own conclusions.

The game you bring up, Webcomic Wars I did indeed tunnel on a townie as scum, but I was 100% convinced he was the enemy scum because our night kill failed on him the night before. You can see that by the mafia QT, a link of which was posted in game.

As far as this point goes, how do we know you don't think you've caught a rival scum faction here? After all, there is the possibility of third parties in this setup.

And like anything with mafia, tunnelling is a nice neutral way to chainsaw defend someone

What does this mean? Who are you chainsawing for?


Overall, I think my meta read of SC is very much correct. He has been out of control tunneling on Sotty and then when called on it he's suddenly not certain about her and ready to switch to Jahudo (for what reason, I'm not entirely sure). I'm not the biggest fan of cases strictly on meta, but I've played with Serial quite a bit in recent times and I'm calling my read good.

Spy, if you have a legit reason he shouldn't be purged today, I want to hear it. Just saying no isn't going to cut it this time Mr. DARE Officer.

[SpyreX]

I am a POWERFUL WIZARD, not some namby pamby DARE Officer.

If "legit" reasons are more than just a gut feel, no. However, meta is delicious and all but I'm pretty sure its got too many carcinogens in it for me.

I'm willing to take the tsk,tsk if he gets lynched as scum but, no, not buying it. Especially if we're looking at only two today.

[Herodotus]

This sounds like you'd already be willing to purge SC/Spy if Sotty flipped town, but that you also wouldn't terribly mind seeing Sotty purge if it helps you decide on SC/Spy. Is that accurate?

No, it would be more accurate to say:

I'm tempted to analyze her wagon (and those not on it) in more depth, but if she ends up purged, it might be better to wait until we've seen her flip.

In other words, there is stuff on which to comment, but doing so now, using major "if" statements, might help the scum more than it helps the town.

I said earlier that if a player discovers the existence of moychandise, they should claim that fact so the town knows what to expect. Well, although I'm less certain now about claiming being helpful, I'm not going to make a liar of myself. I've learned that moychandise exists in the game. As I said earlier, the moychandise stuff is

not

a cult. It does not change the recipient's win condition.

I don't think there is much point in trying to hunt for the moychandiser (I'm assuming that the ability to give moychandise = player with the Moychandiser win condition.) All that happens if they win is that they disappear from the game. Their flip won't tell us anything. And in order to survive, they need to keep up the appearance that they are scumhunting lest they be lynched as scum. So they can't afford to not be helpful.

Also, I'm not sure that anyone should claim to have moychandise.

I also haven't used it yet because my double vote is a one off thing. Once I place it, I can't move it and it is gone once a purge is reached. It's like a one shot.

I don't think you should have said that.

[SerialClergyman]

VP, I've voted no less than 3 people early in this game too. I've also done easily as much 'probing' around other people in this game as I had in the games listed.

Apart from that, what can I say? You're wrong. I was as tunnelled there as I am here. I changed my vote from Sotty because she claimed double voter, not because of any pressure you or anyone else put on me (hence the whole resisting the pressure when first called on being tunnelled.)

The Webcomic example I had role based information to believe Percy was scum. We had an NK-immune member and he had mysteriously survived a NK attempt, so we assumed the scum teams were symmetrical. I obviously don't have any role-based info here.

But aside from that - say I was a rival faction - then I would be simply scumhunting my rival faction. I'd have no reason to be more or less tunnelled than any other time. Is it your opinion that if I was scumhunting my rival faction I'd be more likely to tunnel than if I was town hunting the scum?

Hmm. I don't like this from you VP.

[SerialClergyman]

Oh, I was also saying that accusign osmeone of tunnelling is a good way of chainsawing.

You're attacking my buddy and not letting go so I'm saying you're tunnelled. Doesn't address the argument, but calls your buddy's accusor scummy and invites pressure to get them to move their vote. I don't know/think this is happening here, but it's in the back of my mind.

[VP Baltar]

VP, I've voted no less than 3 people early in this game too

I'm referring to serious votes, not random voting.

The Webcomic example I had role based information to believe Percy was scum. We had an NK-immune member and he had mysteriously survived a NK attempt, so we assumed the scum teams were symmetrical. I obviously don't have any role-based info here.

Fair enough, but this is a semi open setup, so you don't really need info in your role pm.

But aside from that - say I was a rival faction - then I would be simply scumhunting my rival faction. I'd have no reason to be more or less tunnelled than any other time. Is it your opinion that if I was scumhunting my rival faction I'd be more likely to tunnel than if I was town hunting the scum?

Not necessarily, I was just saying that the excuse you were making for you doing it as scum in that game doesn't really hold water here.

What it does look like to me, however, is that you're more inclined to tunnel hard as scum than town.

You're attacking my buddy and not letting go so I'm saying you're tunnelled. Doesn't address the argument, but calls your buddy's accusor scummy and invites pressure to get them to move their vote. I don't know/think this is happening here, but it's in the back of my mind.

That's fair. I'm not denying that I've been vocally against a Sotty purge today. If I'm wrong and she's scum, then I'll have to face that music when it happens. I still don't necessarily feel that she is though.