Newbie 906 - Game Over!

[PranaDevil]

Question though:

What if Apathy does claim a power role? Where do we go then? We then have very few days to make a decision.

Secondly, what if Apathy is lying about said power role? There's two negative outcomes to that:

1 - Apathy lies and there is no role of that kind in this game, so nobody counterclaims, we then don't lynch suspected scum based on the role claim.

2 - Apathy lies, claims a role, someone else actually has it, they then either out themselves D1, meaning their role is next to useless as they're dead N1, or they don't, and we keep someone who is blatantly scum around, which is fine only if we can lynch the other scum before the real Power Role outs Apathy (and only then if we believe them).

So considering those two options... what good will a claim honestly do us at this stage?

There's a 50% chance that a lie could go by unnoticed, and the 50% it doesn't would mean the true town role either ignores it and risks losing the game for town, or announces they have the real PR and loses the role for town.

I don't like them odds personally.

[RayFrost]

well, it prevents us from possibly lynching a power role.

and apathy would have to keep up a fakeclaim for an extended period of time.

not likely.

[Phaen]

Prada, are you suggesting we lynch him even if he claims a power role?

It seems like too much risk to me.

[Phaen]

And before you nag me about writing up my thoughts on the whole game so far, I'm doing it right now

[PranaDevil]

It's actually a 50/50 risk in actuality.

Like I asked, what happens if someone does actually have the role he claims, and is therefore forced to out themselves? It's what I'd do as mafia, claim a power role and even if I still got lynched, I'd have found the town's power role for my scum mates.

I mean... by stating they should claim, you're telling them to either admit they're scum or lie really.

I don't, honestly, get the point of making them claim, scum WILL lie about the claim, for obvious reasons, and so if we think Apathy is scum, and scum would lie, that leaves us the options of the claim not being in the game at all, or the claim forcing a reveal. Is that honestly the better option for us?

[RayFrost]

Weeelll.... you don't

have

to believe a claim.

If they claim cop in lylo, for example, you should probably ignore the claim and analyze their play.

I've claimed cop as scum in lylo to great success. I've also claimed cop in order to out the cop to get a setup reveal for my partner, etc, etc.

Anyway, the more experienced players (as in people far, far better than me) have actually talked about lynching regardless of the claim.

mainly, claiming is to let a PR get their information out.

[PranaDevil]

Anyway, the more experienced players (as in people far, far better than me) have actually talked about lynching regardless of the claim.

I was reading the thread a few days back, hence why it came to me now. :p

[Phaen]

Ok, here's my read on everyone.

:arrow:

redbox

(has since replaced out)
While backreading, I can see why some of you have suspicions towards redbox. The major thing the case against him boils down to is when he placed a vote upon Ray that directly contradicted his stated thoughts/feelings. If I didn't know better I would suspect him too I'm not sure what else to say, 'cause I have no clue what was going through his head.

:arrow:

PranaDevil

Has been genuinely scumhunting the entire game. He has been paying attention and trying to improve his play. I get a pro-town read.

:arrow:

Apathy

Has barely posted at all. Doesn't back up the things he says. I've noticed a lot of logical fallacies and hypocrisies in his arguments. Overall he's the one I think most likely to be scum.

:arrow:

jammer

He hasn't contributed a whole lot so far, but I think he tries. Needs to post more and he's a little guilty of IIoA (Example: "that was an interesting post" as opposed to using words that show the post meant to him). I don't get the sense he's scum, though.

:arrow:

jmurph3

Tends to wait until there's a little consensus before making a statement or a vote. It may just be her playstyle, but I find jmurph slightly on the scummy side.

:arrow:

Skill006

I disagree with some of what she has said (but that might go in a separate post) but I don't find her posts scummy. I guess my read is neutral on her.

:arrow:

RayFrost

I originally had a pro-town read on Ray but as I read more into the thread I started to see things that caught my eye. I don't like his mocking, exaggerated re-enactments of his attacker's arguments when he defends himself. I also dislike his post #419 very much. Although he did vote after I mentioned the contradiction, I still feel it was scummy.

:arrow:

PaltryExcuse

I get a sense Paltry puts a lot of thought into things before saying/doing them. I think it was pro-town of him to urge the town not to lynch last week in favor of more discussion. I haven't seen contradictions during his play either, so I feel Paltry is pro-town.

:arrow:

fuzzylightning

My other game in April was with fuzzy too. He has a mere 20 posts this game and he was similarly quiet during D1 in the other game. While looking through all his posts, I see most of them have some sort of content, he is concise, and his votes match up with what he says he's thinking. I'm getting a pro-town read despite him not being as active as I would hope.

[Kison]

Day One: Vote Count

Apathy (

4

) : PranaDevil, Phaen, RayFrost, fuzzylightning
jmurph3 (

1

) : PaltryExcuse
RayFrost (

1

) : Apathy
fuzzylightning (

1

) : jammer

Not Voting (

2

) : Skill006, jmurph3

With

9

alive, it will take

5

votes to lynch.

The day's deadline is currently set to:

February 24th, 2010, 11:59:59 PM, EST

[PaltryExcuse]

Two things:
A) Let's stop with the PBPAs. We're basically telling who the mafia should NK at this point. Keeping some opinions to yourself (your strongest pro-town reads) is a good idea unless otherwise necessary (you're asked directly about the person, defending them etc.).

B) I can see your logic Prana. Does that mean that Ray's VT claim makes you think he's town? (As mafia would have nothing to gain by claiming VT in your case.) It becomes very much a WIFOM situation. So, we're left with analyzing Apathy's play and judging whether we believe the claim or not IF he does claim a power role.

[PranaDevil]

Actually, I don't think claiming a VT would necessarily make someone town either, my claim was that if it's a power role, they could still be scum role fishing, and if no role steps forward, get away with it and survive.

If Apathy (or whoever) claimed VT, then... why should that stop the lynch?

In fact, why should any claim stop a lynch? If we've got someone at L-1, and at the point we feel they need lynching, what possible benefit is there for town to have them role claim?

As a for instance, what are those voting for Apathy going to do if he returns and says "I'm cop".

Your options are:
Ask if there's a real cop (thus exposing them to the mafia, or if we don't have one, allowing Apathy to fly under the radar for the rest of the game potentially)

Accept it outright, and just pull the vote (And if a simple "Guys, I'm cop" would make you pull off the wanting to lynch, you shouldn't have been pushing for it to begin with, not when there's no evidence to support said claim).

Continue the lynch anyway to find out whether he lied/was honest.

To be honest, the negatives far outweight the positives to me, by allowing the claim we, as town, would be asking the mafia to feel free to role fish the very second they were in danger of a lynch. Thus helping their partner (and that's the win condition for mafia, to win at all costs, if you're going to go, why not help your partner while you're at it?)

Also, if they are the cop/doc, then if mafia have no roleblockers chances are that player is dead that night anyway, or if they have roleblockers, the player would get roleblocked (and if mafia is made up of two goons, well... I for one would be lying about being roleblocked if nobody had counterclaimed).

So if the only benefit is "we don't wish to lynch a possible power role", well... there's absolutely zero benefit to that, as we are running a bigger risk of either outing the real role, or letting scum fly by undetected because that role isn't actually here.

Factor in that the absolute only way to judge whether that roleclaim is honest or not, is whether you trust that player is town or scum to begin with... and haven't we already decided that by wanting said player lynched? Wanting a role claim seems absolutely ridiculous to me, and very, very, anti-town because it has no positives without trusting someone we've already decided we don't trust.

Also, as a note... I don't remember Ray ever claiming to be a VT. Someone claimed someone else (brain just farted, can't remember who called someone else it) was... but Ray didn't claim he was, though he did tell off jmurph because he thought she was claiming that as her role.

[PaltryExcuse]

In Post 207

Eh, it's obvious prana will hammer if I ever get to L-1.

I'm Vermont, code name VT. Bow before my awesome stateliness.

A PR lynch on Day 1 could spell doom for the town. Not only that, we could force scum to NK someone who is scummy to prevent night information from leaking to the town if Apathy does claim cop or doc and isn't lying. It's a difficult situation. Either way, enough speculating on PRs.

I can definitely see your logic and you've got me in a mental pickle here Prana.

[Phaen]

if he returns and says "I'm cop".

Your options are:
Ask if there's a real cop (thus exposing them to the mafia, or if we don't have one, allowing Apathy to fly under the radar for the rest of the game potentially)

Accept it outright, and just pull the vote (And if a simple "Guys, I'm cop" would make you pull off the wanting to lynch, you shouldn't have been pushing for it to begin with, not when there's no evidence to support said claim).

Continue the lynch anyway to find out whether he lied/was honest.

Asking the real cop to claim would be sub-optimal play. Once the real cop claims he wont be getting any more investigations. A cop claim/counterclaim should not be made on Day 1 unless the person is at L-1.

Accepting the claim is one viable option, and its not as bad as you make it sound. It doesn't mean we have to believe in him 100% it just means we can withhold judgment until we have more information tomorrow.

There's two scum

and we could hunt for the other one D1. We could keep our eyes on him tomorrow if/when he survives the night. If he dies during the night, how is that worse than lynching him today?

Continuing the lynch regardless of his claim is viable as well. But what's the harm in waiting for him to claim first before doing so? We'll know the truth once we lynch him and it'll give him a last chance for an appeal. Plus we can get some information out of who believes or doesn't believe his claim.

The decision all depends on whether we believe his claim or not.
But either way I think its beneficial to the town for him to claim.

[PranaDevil]

Must've missed that line from Ray, but I suppose considering everything else that was going on at the time it's understandable (That and, I think at that stage of the game I was still going "what the hell does VT mean?" lol).

As for the PR thing, I'm glad it's got you thinking tough. Because it's obviously better for scum to get as much info out of being in that position as possible.

One thing I will say though, why would losing an honest PR on D1 spell doom for us? Are we saying that the game with 7 VT's in it is less fair than the one with both a cop and a doc?

I'm not saying we should happily lynch a PR, but if a simple claim from someone we think is scummy is enough to stop us lynching them... well then why is there even a consideration on lynching them to begin with?

[PranaDevil]

EBWOP

I stop using preview and some git comes in and posts before me, damn you Phaen, and damn you Bob! (I think it's Bob... but it could be Bub, lol)

Anyway Phaen, you're right in that we could look elsewhere, but considering the length of the day left, right now we don't have a huge length of time left. Now if we had limitless days, sure, that would be a great idea. But we don't, we have 3 weeks per day, which sounded like plenty before, but things are beginning to drag, by the time any claim is made, I doubt we could do much more looking into things without accepting a no lynch, or just rush lynching someone else (Which wouldn't be adviseable).

Factor in that if scum lied... if we do have that PR around, this is what will happen:

Real PR knows that person is scum, but doesn't say so at the time (so as to not be outed themselves), during this time we accept the scum claim as true, so we don't consider them so closely, while they go round picking people off with their partner. By the time the real PR claims... well we're then in the position of "well why didn't you claim earlier, prove yourself!" and... that's where it all goes south.

We have to plan ahead, if we also wish to win, we can't just say "that's better now" because it wont be. Scum claim a PR, we would need the real PR to step forward then and there to counter it so we're not lead on a wild goose chase.

Factor in the whole other issue I pointed out that there's no guarentee we even have that PR in the game... and what are you going to do with the information?

You're still basing it entirely off whether you trust someone you already have stated you think is scum.

[Phaen]

Your whole post outlines some reasons for lynching him regardless of his claim. But it doesn't explain how lynching

without

a claim is better than lynching

immediately after

the claim. What about my last(ish) point? We can at least get some information out of who believes or doesn't believe his claim.

[PranaDevil]

Oh if we're going for the "let him claim, and see who believes" then fair play... but I will still point out that anyone who backs off because of what is potentially a false claim, and unvotes because of it, perhaps shouldn't have made the vote in the first place.

I still don't honestly understand what good the claim does. What do you actually expect to get out of the claim outside of someone else saying "you cant be X as I'm X" or nobody claiming in return?

[jammer]

...This:

To me, this only adds to the suspicion mounting on redbox, and while it's not enough yet for me to switch off of Ray, it is enough for me to think that he's prime suspect if Ray flips town.

...Got blown up a lot more than it should have been. How is this scummy? How is this "setting up lynches?" I know there's a lot less steam then there was on this before, but I just wanted to bring it back up because so many people followed this case and I really can't understand why.

I'll try to explain this.

Ok.
Wants to lynch Ray, as she votes him.
She (only) gets suspicious on redbox if Ray flips town. (quote pretty much said that)

Why would she only get suspicious of redbox when Ray flips town. It doesn't seem she considers changing votes at all. (to me)It seems she wants to close the door this day for a redbox lynch, and will open it completely if Ray is lynched as town.
I believe Ray started suspecting redbox, jmurph listing redbox as a second suspect seems strange. Why mention that you would suspect redbox most if Ray gets lynched <b>and<b/> flips town. You're not sure at all of your suspicion if you think about lynching the one he suspected before he flipped. And at the same time pretty set on a Ray-lynch.

skill's posting is very restricted in what it covers.

GIVE A STANCE ON WHAT IS GOING ON ALREADY!

Um, deflecting little much?
Why do you want to get all the attention on Apathy.
Why don't you respond to skill discrediting your posts.

My reads on players:

Skill: Posts sparingly and overall seems unsure of her points, and likes to sit on the fence. Posts a case on jammer recently and waiting for a response to it.

So you don't sit on the fence this game?

Jammer: Hasn't posted much since replacing in and kelyn hadn't posted much prior to replacing out, as such, I don't know what to think as I haven't been able to get a huge read out of this slot.

Yea, I've been rather inactive. But you also been pretty inactive at the same time. I don't think the amount of posting between us two differs very much. If you got more, it is mainly because you started in this game.

About someone claiming a PR last minute, I'm not really afraid of lynching a PR. But, it is obvious lynching a PR D1 is not good play. If the PR is real you could frustrate mafia a lot. If possible I want to wait with lynching a PR-claim till at least pre-lylo.
If I got to pick between NL and a cop claim. The cop-claim dies without thinking.

In any case we should have a second lynch ready.

[jammer]

ctrl-a ctrl-c character count of a few players.
Really global as that takes the front and the end with it(i,e mafiascum and alike), and every post got some extra characters without actual content but it's a pointer.

Basically these players should post.
Fuzzy[col]24860Apathy[col]24144jammer[col]22857

[PranaDevil]

So jammer, you are saying we should set up someone else to lynch purely on the basis of Apathy PR claiming?

That sounds... rather scummy to me, especially with the wait until just pre-lylo to lynch them... I don't get that reasoning, if they're thought of as scum, then a claim should never change that, ever. It doesn't make sense, why would anybody logically think it's pro-town to keep someone around who you think is scum based off something that scum would do as a last resort?

I can understand continuing to look at others, but to just say "nah, don't lynch them if they claim a PR" is, to me, a very stupid move for anyone on town's side, as we're then just allowing both scum to role claim and get a free pass while we go off lynching bog standard VT's because they're not a PR.

[jammer]

Hmm, actually yes. If Apathy is town and a PR. It could only do benefit to town if he isn't lynched.

If Apathy is scum, letting him live longer, makes him make excuses. And lynch him later in the game, could not hurt the town.

i.e. cop in a non-hooker setup means mafia needs to decide if they let him get reports or get a kill on someone who would get killed.

Some days could change the way you look at Apathy, for example look how your opinion changed on Ray.

[Skill006]

... a letter count? How did you do that? (More importantly, how am I

not

on there? XD)

~~~~

jammer, you're either misinterpreting what jmurph said, or misrepresenting it (ahh, those 2 words look too much alike XD)

Wants to lynch Ray, as she votes him.
She

(only)

gets suspicious on redbox if Ray flips town. (quote pretty much said that)

First of all, quote did

not

pretty much say that. And she's not trying to imply she's

only

going to get suspicious of him if ray is lynched. Here:

To me, this only adds to the suspicion mounting on redbox, and while it's not enough yet for me to switch off of Ray, it is enough for me to think that he's prime suspect if Ray flips town.

She clearly means that Ray is the top suspect now (or she did, anyway). If he is proven town once he flips, redbox would be her prime suspect. I don't think she meant them to correlate in any way, if that's what you're saying.

Think of it this way; if Ray was not in this game she would've targeted Redbox (of course, I'm speaking theoretically).

It seems

she wants to close the door this day for a redbox lynch, and will open it completely if Ray is lynched as town.I believe Ray started suspecting redbox, jmurph listing redbox as a second suspect seems strange. Why mention that you would suspect redbox most if Ray gets lynched

and

flips town. You're not sure at all of your suspicion if you think about lynching the one he suspected before he flipped. And at the same time pretty set on a Ray-lynch.

I think you're assuming too much about wat she said at this point, and using that assumption to come to a conclusion that ultimately makes her look scummier. She never said, or even implied, that she was "closing the doors" on the redbox lynch.

I don't really get the rest of your conclusions. How does that make her unsure of her suspicions if Ray flips town?

~~~

I may or may not have said this (I keep typing up posts and then deleting them because I don't have time to finish them, I know, real smart) but sorry for not posting much. School is busy this week, and will possibly be next week too.

[PranaDevil]

But what if he claims PR role X, and we "do" have a town PR role X?

WHat do you suggest the real town player does? Keep quiet and not become a sitting duck for N1 killing, but subsequently allow the lying player to continue sliding by everyone else happily?

Or do you suggest the town player role claims and outs themselves right off the bat so we don't ever get to use that PR?

Or what if nobody ever counter claims because we don't even have said role.

It's not that hard for scum to claim "Bah, roleblocked" if they've claimed cop, or nearer lylo to announce their partner is scum, have that person lynched, and are then safe as far as everyone is concerned because they successfully decieved us and they bussed their own partner.

and yeah, it's possible opinions can change, but that could be the same of anyone who got lynched, unfortunately we still have to make decisions, and I still fail to see why a claim helps anybody except scum.

[fuzzylightning]

@Jammer: I have been stating my views when they come up. I have stated who I am suspicious of and why I am suspicious of them, so tell me how that is fence sitting? I also never stated that I have been the most "active" player in the game. Lastly, many characters does not an "active" player make. I admit that I have my faults when it comes to play, could I be more "active" sure, but this is the way I play.

Regarding the Apathy claim: The way I see it, he has been very scummy in my opinion to this point in the game, and if he does happen to claim a power role, we have to evaluate a) how he has played to this point (scummy), b) will he get better on subsequent days (personally, doubt it) c) are we better off as a town with or without Apathy as a PR. My opinion on C is, I think we are better off without him regardless, because I haven't seen anything from him at all. The only positive from letting him live as a PR is that it makes scum "waste" a kill on eliminating PR-Apathy.

[RayFrost]

Wow, larger than I thought.

And I forgot to

unvote, FoS: Apathy

waitin' on a vote count.

^---- lern2reed newbs!

vote: apathy

THIS IS L-1, ONE MORE VOTE LYNCHES APATHY

not a contradiction, phaen.

I said I was waiting on a vc.