Open 193 - Friends and Enemies: It's over!

[hitogoroshi]

Unvote

.

I'll be explaining that one in a minute, but first, Albert, I asked you a question. Please answer it.

I still don't like SC in this scenario and if you're not scum, then I'd say with almost certainty that he is.

Why?

[VP Baltar]

This put Albert's scumminess out the window, because I don't think he'd bus like that and the fire came back into him.

Why do you think he wouldn't do that? It was like one of the first things he posted that day, wasn't it?

[VP Baltar]

@ hito - given Reck's flip and the meta I did, I'm confident that at least one of you are his buddies. Vi and DDD are almost certainly town to me. Troll seems townish. ABR is weird, but leaning town at the moment. Sando could be scum, but he's not a priority at the moment.

[Albert B. Rampage]

And don't use that simulpost to pretend like you didn't hear - I want to be profiled...

I'll be explaining that one in a minute, but first, Albert, I asked you a question. Please answer it.

You guys are just looking for attention now.

Truthfully, I have no say when it comes to which one of you has to go first. Take it up with DDD please.

Speaking of which, I noticed that hitogoroshi hasn't ever alluded to his thoughts about DDD. Strange.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Sadly guys, my answer to both your requests will be the same: I trust my instinct.

[hitogoroshi]

So that's your answer to 'what have your thoughts on SC been through D2 to now'? You trust your instinct? That's begging the question. Why did your instincts go from scum, to town, to scum?

[SerialClergyman]

It's not my understanding of how Albert plays. I can see him settling for a bus, but he was crowing on and on about Reck's lynch for a long time, and was responsible for the second push.

Albert - if I'm going to be lynched by you I deserve to go out with your fire and brimstone.

Vi shouldn't be near confirmed town. I can't think of a single strong post or particularly strong stance. Vi spent most of D2 railing on about sando and then joined his wagon D3. Just.. less impact on the game than I'd have expected from Vi town. No kicking arse and taking names.

[SerialClergyman]

You don't understand - I don't want you to write a case so I can argue with it and all that crap, I want to see you write out a long detailed psychological analysis of me and my moves so I can read it with popcorn and smile...

I promise I won't even touch it in game if you do it...

[Albert B. Rampage]

If Vi or Sando is scum, I will have been completely blindsided and will have to re-evaluate the fundamental workings of my scumdar after this game.

SC's conviction of a town DDD, and hitogoroshi's complete avoidance of him, makes me think DDD is also town.

I think VPB is town. I would be far too impressed with him if he were scum, indeed deserving of the mafia scummie award.

Zorblag, despite my universal mix of suspicion and fear of him, seems to be town in this game.

This leaves the two of you to be scum with RECK.

[Zorblag]

@SerialClergyman, was there a reason that you didn't answer my questions about why you changed your mind on Albert B. Rampage earlier today but rather waited until someone else brought them up again?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[SerialClergyman]

That's barely embers and a pumice stone, but thanks anyway. Someone might be in line for a scummy.....


Zorblag - I don't know, you asked a few questions I considered already answered or not something I wanted to talk about (D1 etc). As I said to hito, I thought my opinion on Albert was well-documented, but perhaps it wasn't as clear as it could have been.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Near the end of Day 1, I was certain of 2 things: the cases against charlatan were bad, and RECK was scummy. SC's case was logical, but lacked the strong mafia instinct I look for in him.

On Day 2, Amished's death confirmed my thoughts about RECK, and so we lynched him. I was also very confident.

Today, Day 3, I am far more humble in my approach, but here are my thoughts: I think Ojanen's death points to SC's handiwork. I think SC is strategically sucking up to DDD and me. The bastard only compliments me when he's scum, anyway. Inside joke. I think hitogoroshi is scum because of his links to RECK. His play today has made him even more likely to be scum.

Sorry clergyman, no fire and brimstone to herald your lynch. DDD will decide your fate.

[Albert B. Rampage]

I think RECK's partners were preparing an eventuality where they would bus him, but the operation was a total disaster. Hitogoroshi came in too late, and SC too early. Total fiasco. The town caught on, lynched their partner, and now they are the two top suspects.

[Zorblag]

@SerialClergyman, do you think that you'd given some reason that we should have seen for your change in opinion about Ablert B. Rampage from day two to day three? I see the explanation you just gave but I don't recall seeing a spot where I would have picked it up before. Or was that in the realm of topics that you weren't interested in talking about?

I thought that:

@SerialClergyman, what's changed your mind on Albert B. Rampage?

and it's clarification of

Why the change in opinion on Albert B. Rampage between yesterday and today.

should make it somewhat clear that I didn't think you'd made your reasons clear.

It's pretty clear that you must have had the reason you just gave in mind when you made your statement that you thought Albert B. Rampage was town in Post 916, I just don't understand why it's taken you this long to get to talking about why.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Albert B. Rampage]

Zorblag could be playing an extremely manipulative game also, and I don't quite hold the same confidence in Danny that everyone else seems to have, but I'll be damned if I don't see you two go out while I'm still in this game.

[Albert B. Rampage]

"So hey Zorblag, what's up with your life man?"

I wish I could ask that. But I am too modest to assume that we already have both the scum in our hands. One? Sure. Two? Remains to be seen. I remain humble despite the apparently clear path and purpose laid out before me. My cynical nature coming out? We shall see, my friends, we shall see...

[Albert B. Rampage]

Whatever the case, this game is made of the cream of the crop of mafiascum, so it wouldn't be inconceivable for the entirety of our pro-town forces to reach a consensus about our scum.

[Zorblag]

@Albert B. Rampage, a scum in the noose is worth two being wagoned or some such pithy saying. Let's see what we get for a flip from hitogoroshi or SerialClegyman and work from there I think. I'd like to think that you're right about hitogoroshi and SerialClergyman as well but that'd be convenient and I don't particularly trust convenient in games of mafia.

Out of curiosity, how likely do you think both of the mafia would be to claim vanilla in this situation?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Albert B. Rampage]

Danny, if I may impart a piece of advice: I would choose clergyman for a lynch today.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Out of curiosity, how likely do you think both of the mafia would be to claim vanilla in this situation?

Almost a certainty. I've never seen scum claim mason in any of my Friends and Enemies games with more than a mason alive.

[Head_Honcho]

Happy Belated Votecount!:

SerialClergyman(3): Vi, Sando, Albert B. Rampage
hitogoroshi(3): SerialClergyman, Zorblag, VP Baltar

Not Voting(2): Debonair Danny DiPietro, hitogoroshi
With 8 alive it's 5 to lynch.

I'm just leaving so this was rushed, let me know if your name isn't where it should be.

[SerialClergyman]

Albert, your bussing theory assumes my derailment after Reck was at L-1 for some time - plenty of time for hito to come in and hammer, IIRC. It also assumes I'd crack under the pressure of a long continued bus,

I think the theory that I didn't intend to have the wagon on Reck skyrocket after my laisse fair (ugh spelling) vote on him has more credence than a deliberate bus that I got cold feet on because my partner hito was too late to the party (remembering if we were scum together we'd have talked about this.)

I'm wondering who is getting complacent.

Zorblag, can't help you. Didn't see it, didn't care, didn't think it was important, had other stuff to say - take your pick. It wasn't part of the stuff I didn't want ot talk about though.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Albert, your bussing theory assumes my derailment after Reck was at L-1 for some time - plenty of time for hito to come in and hammer, IIRC. It also assumes I'd crack under the pressure of a long continued bus

Yes. Hence the fail.

[hitogoroshi]

Albert is scum. SerialClergyman is town.

When I voted him, it was a combination of self-preservation and a belief that he best filled the role of Albert's scumbuddy. The first point is still true but irrelevant – my self preservation is no longer the best chance for a town win. Several things have happened that have made the second one false.

The first is SerialClergyman's post 947. Calls for my lynch should SC die, and gives scum an easy target (anyone on my wagon) for a nk. At the time I chalked it up to scum trying to put on townie airs, but then SC never brought that point up again. I think that's a big thing to notice.

When he posted that, I honestly considered self-voting for a little bit. The reason is that SC had set up a situation where, if he's townie and we lynch him, scum win. Lynch SC, town flip, NK someone on my wagon, vote me the next day. Let's call this 'the mechanism' – it's the understanding that, if SC is town, the scum win by lynching him because it leads to another misylnch on me. Now, I didn't have quite that confidence to do a posthumous call, so my death would at least not guarantee the death of a townie tomorrow. But I kept the thought and self-vote to myself because I still thought SC had a good chance of being scum.

Now fast forward. It happened so fast it's hard to keep these in chronological order. But look. ABR starts D3 thinking SC is certainly scum. But then the mechanism is installed: and in post 952, only five posts later, ABR suddenly floats out SC's name as scum. By 964, we're equally good candidates for scum. 970, he goes ahead and votes SC.

Now what made his strong town read turn into a vote so fast? Simple: because circumstances had arisen where he could lynch SC without ever stating he thinks I'm town. SC's townie flip would, in fact, give him the ammunition to secure my lynch and win the game. The mechanism has been installed right in front of everyone's eyes, and Albert is ready to turn it on and win.

It's also interesting to note that VPB post 966 says that ONE of us have to be scum. This both validates the mechanism and installs a reciprocal one of mine pointing at SC without my input – VPB is apparently willing to lynch one and then the other of us, resulting in a scum win.

Let me go ahead and do this.

Vote: Albert B Rampage.

This is more or less a death sentence for me. While I dearly hope the town can see my points now, pragmatism tells me nothing will come of it because I've long since been yelling in to the wind regarding Albert. I did not vote for Albert at the start of the day because I knew it would do nothing, and I vote him here knowing it will probably do nothing and with it doing I will be the only viable option for a lynch.

But that's fine. Because the difference is when I go town, my dead hand will not be pointing at the heart of the other popular wagon. I'll be pointing at scum.

Now, of course, this looks on the face of it to be nothing more than another townie directing another mechanism. What's to say my interpretation is right where SC's was wrong? After all, if the town lynches ABR and he flips town we will lose just as much – and not only that, the players will be able to point to me and say, "We lost because of hito." Our loss would have been entirely my fault.

I think the fact that my vote remains shows my confidence in my read. If Albert is lynched tomorrow and flips town, resulting in a town loss, I will be apologetic but not embarrased or ashamed.

Let's assume I'm lynched. SC is more or less confirmed town. ABR could be doing another Reck-level bus, of course, but I just don't see that at all in his interactions with SC. The one switch made sense with a scumbuddy relationship (from 'wanna go? Right now?' to 'probably town') but I just don't see this events with an ABR/SC scumteam. The mechanism is the only interpretation of these events that I can find possible.

And here's the thing – he claimed vanilla. Which means that, should the scum nightkill, they can hit either the basicially-confirmed town or keep trying to mason hunt. Either way, we'll have, MINIMUM, two masons/confirmed towns.

Six alive. Four to lynch.

ABR is lynched. Nightkill.

Four alive. Three to lynch.

At least one confirmed townie. (This is assuming the masons made sure to breadcrumb each other's names – I think this is a pretty reasonable thing to assume.)

I like our odds.

And of course, if we lynch ABR today instead, we're a day ahead of the curve.

Now, who is ABR's scumbuddy?

It's a big list. As I said, I think there's a good chance that with Albert focusing on the 'both scum bussed Reck' angle he was exonerating his scumbuddy. That would mean Vi or Sando is his scumbuddy. I also think there's a good chance that VP is his scumbuddy – although admittedly, this is mostly because of his recent posts (966 in particular) and when I first read his interactions with ABR I had no doubt in my mind that they were not scumbuddies. Still, it's worth considering.

I have no idea on DDD. I doubt Zorblag is scum. I also have a weird gut town read on Sando, which is especially odd because I've been thinking of him as scum for most of the game and I can't tell you where I switched. Well, actually, I can – I like basicially all of his D3 content.

So my personal top picks for Albert's scumbuddy are Vi or VP. But don't let that sway you too much – those are gut guesses I'm floating and should not be confused with my conviction that Albert is scum. Stay loose and follow the confirmed townies and you'll do alright.

And so there we are. Ask me questions on anything I didn't clarify enough.

If you can see my sincerity, if you agree with my reasoning, please - vote for Albert.

If you can't accept the idea that I'm not scum, vote for me.

If you think SC is scum - I would rather I be lynched than SC.

As I said, there's a chance I just lost us the game by setting up the town for an Albert mislynch, but I think the fact that I have no anxiety, no worry about this possibility is the single best response I can give to the question 'how sure are you that Albert is scum?'

[SerialClergyman]

Looking back I didn't go through in detail why I thought Albert was town, so fair enough to you guys chastising me for it, but I thought it was pretty obvious.

My case involved him oppotunistically voting Reck and calling for his death. If Reck had flipped town there might be something to that, but him being scum just totally blew my case out of the water completely.

If there's one thing that a) wouldn't work and b) would be useless anyway, it's sucking up to DDD. He's just town. And I'm not sucking up to you, I'm trying to get you to post a long case detailing my scumminess for teh lolz after the game