Open 193 - Friends and Enemies: It's over!

[hitogoroshi]

Whoops! Nice catch. That first hyperlink should be "ABR starts the day thinking SC is certainly TOWN." If you follow the hpyerlink you'll see that. So the links are right, but yeah, I was pointing out how SC started TOWN in Albert's eyes and then turned scum.

And I said that it basicially confirms SC as town in the context of my theory. If you think I'm a townie but totally wrong on one or all of my contentions (e.g, if you think ABR is bussing SC) then there's no particular reason to believe SC is confirmed town. That post is written from the perspective of, hito has been lynched and we're reading back on what he thinks, and I think SC is more or less confirmed town.

[SerialClergyman]

I'm not talking about your game, I'm talking about any argument with you ever

But OK, that's a start.

The Charlatan thing is here:

Serial wrote:
We've just had a game where charlatan skillfully convinced the entire town that he was a townie. He never looked like being lynched and didn't make any glaring mistakes that I noticed.

So Serial is stating that Charlatan’s meta has changed from last game, where Charlatan was scum, so Charlatan must be scum?

And I don't know what I havne't addressed about it. It was a direct response to Albert's

I agree with you that he made bad arguments. If you ask me, this is more a question of skill than alignment however.

Which remains rubbish for the very reason I put up above. I KNEW that the explanation that Charlatan wasn't skillful was wrong because I'd JUST SEEN HIM BE SKILLFUL.

And your meta point was honestly just shithouse, like really, really bad. You haven't read enough of my games to make those kinds of calls.

As to me assuming that VPB and you must be scumbuddies, that’s very simplistic mate.

This applies to your Ojanen's death point, not your case as a whole. If VP is town, then there's no reason for me NOT to use that style of reasoning.

Interestingly, I think I've been thinking about this the wrong way - maybe I shouldn't be trying to explain why I haven't used this technique enough and instead SHOULD ACTUALLY USE THE TECHNIQUE. As I said, it would have pointed due Reck is we'd used it D2...

Saying that we should lynch Hito today before looking at you confirms this to me.

This is either misunderstood by me or stupid.

I'm entertaining the possibility (in fact, them ore I think about it, probability) that hito actually is town after what he's done. And that means I've got to decide whether I want to try to take his sacrificial mantle. I can see people voting me after a hito townflip, but I'm not sure if people would vote hito after a Serial townflip.

So kids - if I flipped town, would you consider hito's push to save my arse here town-motivated? Are you more likely to think town-hito on my townflip than you are to think town-serial on a town-hito flip?

[Sando]

SC being town seems predicated on him calling for your death, and ABR realising that he had an opportunity to win by killing SC today then you tomorrow?

So the entire case of SC being town is based on ABR being scum? And vice-versa?

[SerialClergyman]

My personal feeling on this is similar - in that EVERYONE thinks it's me or hito or 'at least one' of them. This is a fantastic scum narrative if we're both town. If people were to say 'they are definitely scum together' then that's one thing, because on a town flip they'd reevaluate. But essentially a situation has been set up where lynches are being chained, and there's noone who is opposed to the plan.

This suggests at the VERY least that if one of us is town, there's at least one mafia member who is happy for the situation to be that way. So I'm in the position of knowing this to be true. Hito's push away from me makes no sense as scum, which suggests we're both town and therefore both scum are likely to be pushing the 'must be at least one of them' line.

Hito think that one of those is Albert, I don't, but I think the theory is actually surprisingly strong, especially given the fact he's made a grand effort to push it through.

[hitogoroshi]

So the entire case of SC being town is based on ABR being scum? And vice-versa?

Mostly.

If they're both town, then ABR went from 'SC is almost certainly town' to 'SC is the best lynch' in a span of about two pages, with no apparent trigger (since 947 isn't a trigger for a townswitch, just a scumswitch), refused to explain his reasoning when asked, EVEN AFTER I point out why it was such an obviously scum-favorable play, etc. - without a good reason to do any of this. This is apparently what SC believes.

If they're both scum, this is a bus. I don't buy it.

If SC is scum and Albert is town, it's the same thing as both town with Albert, and there's the added bit of SC adeptly faking the behaviors that I read as strongly town.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

DDD, I'm getting masive vibes of Commie Mafia.

What, where we're completely misdirected in the late game other than our town reads? Or that someone has been pulling a complete power bus from day one? I could see either of those. The problem is that in Commie Mafia I had enough town reads that simply lynching people who weren't town reads was good enough; here I don't have nearly enough town reads to feel comfortable doing that.

[Albert B. Rampage]

WOW well that was weird.

I was on a huge sugar rush. Like. Huge.

I am back to my normal self.

[Albert B. Rampage]

O.K. well I think all this is quite honestly mental masturbation.

We need to lynch SC and see where the chips fall.

If SC flips town, then we let go of all previous assumptions and reconsider our options. If he flips scum, we look for connections then.

I am behind a SC wagon. gogo

[Albert B. Rampage]

Danny, VPB, le coup de grace, por favor.

[SerialClergyman]

DDD I meant hito's post looks like raskol after replacing coco to me and the misdirection onto a false dichotomy. I don't think the power bus applies.

Albert, thoughts on hito if I'm town?

[Albert B. Rampage]

Albert, thoughts on hito if I'm town?

My imagination doesn't stretch that far.

[Vi]

Unvote: SerialClergyman

Too much to catch up on tonight, but from what I skimmed I'm

not

ready for this Day to end.

[SerialClergyman]

Albert, thoughts on hito if I'm town?

My imagination doesn't stretch that far.

kids these days with their tv and their videogames...

Come on, you just said you'd reasses on my town flip. So give me a hint about what would be banging around that head of yours.

[Albert B. Rampage]

I will reassess. On your town flip. What part of that wasn't clear?

[Sando]

This is either misunderstood by me or stupid.

I'm entertaining the possibility (in fact, them ore I think about it, probability) that hito actually is town after what he's done.

Could you put it on ice to knock off another scummy player in hito

Just an FYI for you, I'm not just going to look at your latest post and ignore all of your previous ones... You don't get to change your mind and instantly have everyone forget what you've said previously.

You've ignored (correct me if I'm wrong) my analysis of your fence-sitting accusation against Charlatan. You've ignored (again, correct me if I'm wrong) the problem of you attacking ABR for getting off the Charlatan wagon, then attacking him for getting on it...

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Danny, VPB, le coup de grace, por favor.

Not leaning that way, plus not possible any more with Vi's unvote.

[Sando]

kids these days with their tv and their videogames...

This made me lol.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Danny, VPB, le coup de grace, por favor.

Not leaning that way, plus not possible any more with Vi's unvote.

Temporary setback.

No way in hell are we going to explore any more alternative wagons with two claims already, although from probscum. Three claims will pigeonhole the two masons left. Serialclergyman has to go.

[SerialClergyman]

Nice slip Albert?

[SerialClergyman]

Sando, I thought hito was probably scum and knew I wasn't, that's the motivation for pushing hito like that. I now think I was wrong based on his Albert switch.

The second point I deinitely responded to. I criticises Albert for moving off charla when I thought charla was scum, I criticises him for moving on him after I knew he was town (d2).

The first point - well, it was a day one scum read. I find people fencesitting on two arguing parties as scummy. Obviously I was wrong.

[Albert B. Rampage]

What slip?

[SerialClergyman]

If we are probably scum, why would another claim pigeonhole the mason pair?

[Albert B. Rampage]

If you're two to have claimed, it's possible you're both scum and you gleaned no new information.

If there are three to have claimed, you necessarily will have gained information on who is not a mason.

[Sando]

Sando, I thought hito was probably scum and knew I wasn't, that's the motivation for pushing hito like that. I now think I was wrong based on his Albert switch.

Whatever your current thinking is, when it mattered, you went for Hito, and the way you went for it and ignored VPB looks like you went with your best chance of getting an opposing lynch to yourself.

[Albert B. Rampage]

What about you, Sando? Are you committed to the clergyman cause?

It's like I'm raising a benefit here.