Mini 915 - Murder in Murder Free Village (Over)

[jbernier93]

Jbernier looks town as hell to me, what does he look to you?

He's been trying to lynch me/flareonage since his first post... Clearly KMD thinks I'm town.

[charter]

That's right, you replaced Flareonage. I thought Kmd's reasons for voting you yesterday were shady, though apparently he's done it before. So then the question is raised of who is more suspicious, 'the fool or the fool who follows the fool'? Not coincidentally, LS is the follower, and then we get DJC who comes in and self preservation votes for Flareonage on page two. The epitome of scummy votes. Going back and looking at it again just makes me want these three (Kmd, DJC/Viking, LS) dead as soon as possible to eliminate the scummatude within them. And then Kmd ignores the nervousness of DJC when he votes Flareonage. Yes, there is so much scumminess within these three, I'd be amazed if all three aren't scum.

And then, in post 45 right after dana puts DJC at L-2, LS comes in and questions dana's vote, deflecting from his scumbuddy!

I think that if people go back and reread like the first three pages of the game, they'll get a pretty good idea of what I'm preaching here.

[horrordude0215]

I reread the thread, and right now the only person that I see as suspicious is LS for the many reasons that have already been stated several times so far in the thread.

I'll reread again and see if I can come up with more.

[kyle99]

Did a reread of Lastsurvivor, and he seems scummy as hell imo. I usually get pretty crappy scumtells from people, but he seems to have very anti-town motives. This might just be a noob-tell, but I highly doubt it.

[vikingfan]

I'm not suspicious of anyone who voted for NS because of the fact that they voted him. He was scummy and a lynch was merited. I find those (kmd, viking (what a coincidence it's those two)) that are trying to use it as their sole scumhunting to be suspect. There was really good reason to lynch NS, so I'm actually a bit wary about those who didn't vote him knowing he wasn't going to flip scum. It's like they knew he was going to get himself lynched anyway, so they tried to distance their self from a town lynch. Typical scumplay.

Now, they're using this nonsense of 'well soandso voted a townie, he must be scum' to justify a vote today. I didn't see either one of them object to the wagon yesterday, in fact, kmd was even on it. This is kmd doing more of trying to have his cake (vote of NS) and eat it too (vote someone else for voting NS). Viking is doing it as well (by virtue of not objecting to the wagon yesterday) though he at least got here late and to a lesser degree. Scummy.

I'm weary of Kyle, but for reasons entirely unrelated to his vote of NS (I do agree with viking that his fishing was suspicious, but he did retract it a minute later, so I'm giving it a pass) but I also don't like how his play is eerily similar to that mini we were just in together.

Jbernier looks town as hell to me, what does he look to you?

Which all sounds nice and good until you realize that scum is already operating with inside knowledge...they KNEW NS was innocent and thus can hide under the 'well he looked scummy' vibe. I'm sticking with my theory.

If you're so weary of kyle and this is one of the people we actually agree on, then why not go after him? He's one where both the wagon and gameplay seem to agree.

[Herodotus]

Day 2, Page 11 Vote Count:

Lastsurvivor (3):

charter, kyle99, jbernier93

kyle99 (2):

Kmd4390, vikingfan

No Lynch (0):

Not voting (4):

Haschel Cedricson, Lastsurvivor, My Milked Eek, horrordude0215


With

9

alive, it takes

5

to lynch, or

5

to choose not to lynch.
Deadline is 5:00 AM UTC,

Saturday, March 6

. Sorry for listing the deadline incorrectly before.

[charter]

I'm more suspicious of all three (kmd, viking, LS) of you than kyle independently, so when you add in the connections between you three, it tips the scales WAY in favor of one of you three over kyle.

I find LS's

sole vote of the game

, which came in his first post, to be far more suspicious than being on any number of townie lynches. Obviously you can't be on townie lynches if you only vote once. Vote count analysis fails to take important things like this in to account, which I think is one of the pitfalls of scumhunting by vote counts.

Viking, do you think NS is scummy or townish? You say there's little in his post history of the game, but that's a pretty blurry read.

Now that I went back and checked vote histories, I find MME has only made two votes as well.

MOD, can we get some prods or replacement on My Milked Eek?

By my count, it's been 53 hours since his last post. If he does not post within 19 hours, I will send him a third and final prod. -Mod

[Kmd4390]

I'm not suspicious of anyone who voted for NS because of the fact that they voted him. He was scummy and a lynch was merited. I find those (kmd, viking (what a coincidence it's those two)) that are trying to use it as their sole scumhunting to be suspect. There was really good reason to lynch NS, so I'm actually a bit wary about those who didn't vote him knowing he wasn't going to flip scum. It's like they knew he was going to get himself lynched anyway, so they tried to distance their self from a town lynch. Typical scumplay.

What the hell dude? You know my meta. I use VC analysis all the time and a big part of that is the fact that there is almost ALWAYS at least one scum on a mislynch. The idea isn't "Hey, they were wrong", it's "Well, even if this player was scummy, why WOULDN'T scum jump on it?".

Now, they're using this nonsense of 'well soandso voted a townie, he must be scum' to justify a vote today.

No, that isn't the mentality of it at all.

[horrordude0215]

Looking back over the thread, LS is too scummy not to deserve my vote

Vote: lastsurvivor

I kinda want to see a claim

[charter]

The vote count analysis being used is "scum must have been the fourth, fifth, or sixth vote on the lynch". That's it. That's not enough to lynch someone over.

From my view, the "almost ALWAYS at least one scum on a mislynch" looks a lot like it could be you. What do you make of LS's lone vote on page one? You don't find that suspicious? How do you plan on ever vote count analyzing him or MME since they don't vote enough to gain anything meaningful from. You said before you think LS is suspect, what exactly do you not like about him?

Another question for the kyle voters, who is his scumbuddy?

[charter]

That was in response to Kmd's post.

[Kmd4390]

I used VC analysis to know who to take another look. I looked again at Kyle and he looked scummy, hence the vote.

[charter]

Can you answer my questions I asked in 259?

[vikingfan]

The vote count analysis being used is "scum must have been the fourth, fifth, or sixth vote on the lynch". That's it. That's not enough to lynch someone over.

From my view, the "almost ALWAYS at least one scum on a mislynch" looks a lot like it could be you. What do you make of LS's lone vote on page one? You don't find that suspicious? How do you plan on ever vote count analyzing him or MME since they don't vote enough to gain anything meaningful from. You said before you think LS is suspect, what exactly do you not like about him?

Another question for the kyle voters, who is his scumbuddy?

Given how fast that wagon jumped in size, I think it's very fair to think at least ONE scum is on that list. We've only got 9 live players and no dead scum yet, so mathematically, the odds are also in our favor.

I'm not sure yet on scumbuddies, but MME is not making me happy any.

[Kmd4390]

Can you answer my questions I asked in 259?

Yes.

What do you make of LS's lone vote on page one?

Let me find it. The one where he follows me on to Flare? I commented on the vote when he placed it. If Flare (now Jb) flips scum, it's a slight town tell because it's pretty much a wagon hop, which I don't think he'd do to his buddy. If Jb is town, it's pretty much null because it can easily be a wagon hop OR trying to spring up discussion with an early bandwagon. It's not a very strong tell either way unless Jb is scum, in which case it's a town tell for LS.

You don't find that suspicious?

No.

How do you plan on ever vote count analyzing him or MME since they don't vote enough to gain anything meaningful from.

That actually plays into the analysis. If I see that somebody doesn't vote, it's going to look scummy.

You said before you think LS is suspect, what exactly do you not like about him?

I did? I think the most I've said is that I could see it, but I'm not very confident in that. My gut kind of questions his play, but it just makes more sense as town than scum. I won't be stunned if I'm wrong, but I have a town read on LS.

Another question for the kyle voters, who is his scumbuddy?

Jb and MME (See VC Analysis).

Given how fast that wagon jumped in size, I think it's very fair to think at least ONE scum is on that list.

Actually, I doubt very seriously that we'll only find ONE scum in that list. I think there is a very good chance that TWO scum voted NS.

[charter]

What do you make of LS's lone vote on page one?

Let me find it. The one where he follows me on to Flare? I commented on the vote when he placed it. If Flare (now Jb) flips scum, it's a slight town tell because it's pretty much a wagon hop, which I don't think he'd do to his buddy. If Jb is town, it's pretty much null because it can easily be a wagon hop OR trying to spring up discussion with an early bandwagon. It's not a very strong tell either way unless Jb is scum, in which case it's a town tell for LS.

Oh, I meant what do you make of the fact that he has only made a single vote the whole game. In his first post. That's not pro town at all.

How do you plan on ever vote count analyzing him or MME since they don't vote enough to gain anything meaningful from.

That actually plays into the analysis. If I see that somebody doesn't vote, it's going to look scummy.

When does it start to be scummy?

[Herodotus]

My Milked Eek, Haschel Cedricson, and Lastsurvivor have been prodded.

The "Since I made this post, I might as well put up another" Vote Count:

Lastsurvivor (4):

charter, kyle99, jbernier93, horrordude0215

kyle99 (2):

Kmd4390, vikingfan

No Lynch (0):

Not voting (3):

Haschel Cedricson, Lastsurvivor, My Milked Eek


With

9

alive, it takes

5

to lynch, or

5

to choose not to lynch.
Deadline is 5:00 AM UTC, Saturday, March 6

[Haschel Cedricson]

Prod received, will post later tonight/early tomorrow.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Update: Working on a chart of Lastsurvivor's posts in Excel, and it's probably going to result on a vote on Lastsurvivor. Once I post the chart and explain it, I will wait 24 hours before hammering.

[Haschel Cedricson]

First off, I apologize for breaking the tables.



Post numbers refer to looking at LS's posts in isolation. Right, here's the color-coding.

Bright red is a vote. As you can see, this color doesn't get used often.

The pale-purplish-red are posts where LS declares suspicion of a person.

Green is where LS declares pro-townness of a person.

Blue is where LS defends a person.

Orange is where LS agrees with a person.

First off, LS has only voted once in the entire game, and that was his first post of the game. This is literally the first time I have ever seen anybody do this. What this means is that NOT ONCE has LS found something so suspicious that it's worth a vote. In Purple Circle #1, LS states that he "doesn't really suspect" Flareonage. Yet, he keeps his vote here. He doesn't move on to a new suspect, although this may be excused by it being early in the game. However, he doesn't unvote.

Once again, LS is voting for a person THAT HE DOES NOT SUSPECT. Also, that "bit of justification" he refers to was kmd's case, which I don't think was particularly justified (by anybody other than kmd) at all.

Around post 7, the group starts looking closely at DJC. In a very short time (Purple Circle #2) LS goes from finding DJC "scummy as hell" to finding him not that bad. This is an incredibly fast change of opinion, and it doesn't come with any explanation of what prompted the switch.

Purple Circle #3 shows that he is still not moving his vote from Flareonage, despite no reason for the vote in the first place. Either he is incredibly lazy or he wants to avoid showing suspicions of anybody. At this point in the game he has retracted his suspicion of DJC for some reason, he's called NS "anti-town" and stopped short of calling his scum, and he's shown suspicion of dana three times, although he only gave reasons of substance once.

This is IT. After 16 posts and a nonspecific number of pages that I'm not going to look up the actual value for, the last sentence of the last paragraph describes all of LS's reads on people FOR THE ENTIRE DAY. If that's not trying to avoid controversy, then I don't know what it.

Purple Circle #4 has LS claim to be scumhunting. However "scumhunting" in this case refers to defending himself from charter. As mentioned in my note about Purple Circle #3, LS has done pretty much NO scumhunting.

Purple Circle #5 shows LS call NS anti-town, and then today say that he thought NS was town. I understand that LS meant anti-town to imply not necessarily scum, but it's odd that with the exception of his bizarre flip on DJC, this is the ONLY time he states that anybody seems protown.

Also note that there are no other comments about NS between the two statements, so we don't know why he made the switch. However, we have to assume that it was before the end of Day 1, because otherwise it's a worthless statement; by this point we KNOW NS was town. So why didn't LS try to convince us of NS's townness the day before? This play makes no sense.

I know other people have made other points about LS, and I'm not going to repeat them here. However, these are the main things I noticed on my reread. In 24 hours from the timestamp on this post, I will vote for LS.

[kyle99]

First off, I apologize for breaking the tables.



Post numbers refer to looking at LS's posts in isolation. Right, here's the color-coding.

Bright red is a vote. As you can see, this color doesn't get used often.

The pale-purplish-red are posts where LS declares suspicion of a person.

Green is where LS declares pro-townness of a person.

Blue is where LS defends a person.

Orange is where LS agrees with a person.

First off, LS has only voted once in the entire game, and that was his first post of the game. This is literally the first time I have ever seen anybody do this. What this means is that NOT ONCE has LS found something so suspicious that it's worth a vote. In Purple Circle #1, LS states that he "doesn't really suspect" Flareonage. Yet, he keeps his vote here. He doesn't move on to a new suspect, although this may be excused by it being early in the game. However, he doesn't unvote.

Once again, LS is voting for a person THAT HE DOES NOT SUSPECT. Also, that "bit of justification" he refers to was kmd's case, which I don't think was particularly justified (by anybody other than kmd) at all.

Around post 7, the group starts looking closely at DJC. In a very short time (Purple Circle #2) LS goes from finding DJC "scummy as hell" to finding him not that bad. This is an incredibly fast change of opinion, and it doesn't come with any explanation of what prompted the switch.

Purple Circle #3 shows that he is still not moving his vote from Flareonage, despite no reason for the vote in the first place. Either he is incredibly lazy or he wants to avoid showing suspicions of anybody. At this point in the game he has retracted his suspicion of DJC for some reason, he's called NS "anti-town" and stopped short of calling his scum, and he's shown suspicion of dana three times, although he only gave reasons of substance once.

This is IT. After 16 posts and a nonspecific number of pages that I'm not going to look up the actual value for, the last sentence of the last paragraph describes all of LS's reads on people FOR THE ENTIRE DAY. If that's not trying to avoid controversy, then I don't know what it.

Purple Circle #4 has LS claim to be scumhunting. However "scumhunting" in this case refers to defending himself from charter. As mentioned in my note about Purple Circle #3, LS has done pretty much NO scumhunting.

Purple Circle #5 shows LS call NS anti-town, and then today say that he thought NS was town. I understand that LS meant anti-town to imply not necessarily scum, but it's odd that with the exception of his bizarre flip on DJC, this is the ONLY time he states that anybody seems protown.

Also note that there are no other comments about NS between the two statements, so we don't know why he made the switch. However, we have to assume that it was before the end of Day 1, because otherwise it's a worthless statement; by this point we KNOW NS was town. So why didn't LS try to convince us of NS's townness the day before? This play makes no sense.

I know other people have made other points about LS, and I'm not going to repeat them here. However, these are the main things I noticed on my reread. In 24 hours from the timestamp on this post, I will vote for LS.

JPG's make kyle cry

[Kmd4390]

Oh, I meant what do you make of the fact that he has only made a single vote the whole game. In his first post. That's not pro town at all.

Wait, that's his only vote? Damn, not good.

When does it start to be scummy?

Depends. In this case, I think if he doesn't vote at all today, I'd be willing to lynch him tomorrow. Problem is, I see two players as scummier and don't see LS as a buddy to those players.

----------------

Haschel, "anti-town, not scummy" doesn't really express suspicion, so "thought NS was town" is actually an accurate statement.

---------------

Being at L-1 though, LS should probably claim in his next post.

[Haschel Cedricson]

JPG's make kyle cry Sad

It was gonna be a .PNG, but one misclick and that was the end of that.

Haschel, "anti-town, not scummy" doesn't really express suspicion, so "thought NS was town" is actually an accurate statement.

Yeah, I suppose I miscolored that box. Nevertheless, the fact that he did absolutely nothing to try to convince the town of these suspicions warrents a Purple Circle.

[My Milked Eek]

First of,
@lastsurvivor: what does misrepresenting mean?

Secondly,
it's going to be kmd, jbernier and someone else.

On kmd:
His nervous tell is bull. Trying to justify a stupid tell with one game is also bull. I could give two games where this nervous tell flipped two newbtownies. His appeals to authority have also been noted concerning this "tell".

This one quote also concerns me. It was about the neighbor claim "usually one of them is scum". NS flipped town. If kmd is scum, second neighbor is town. Unless the neighbor is someone I have in mind, in that case the neighbor is scum. ~mystery~

It's also rather hypocritical of him to go after the ns wagon, when I noted down that he was pushing ns very hard around page 4-5. Also, he was on that wagon as well. And lynch votecount analysis this early are fail. Sure, useful later on, but not on D2.


On jbernier:
It's more situational really. His vote hopping is very convenient. He hops on the kyle wagon as the third vote as it appears to gain momentum and he hops off the wagon as soon as it would look scummy to be on the kyle wagon. He then hops onto ls (iirc).


There's more, but I have to run. Be back tonight.

[My Milked Eek]

Also, that misrepresenting question was aimed at ls, nobody else answer it. >=(