Mini 914 ~ Mafia Reverberation (Game Over!)

[VP Baltar]

What are people's thoughts on jazz, gamma and myself cross purging each other today?

I personally think that Jahudo, Spyrex and Porkens are all town. I'm less sure on Nacho as other seem to be, but whatevs. If there is scum among those four, I don't think there could be more than one. It would make tomorrow potential lylo depending on night actions, but I think it's an easy chance for a victory.

Personally, I think there is only one scum left anyway. I think the NK on MO could have come from Sotty's Gepenst.



Also, one thing I think needs to be pointed out about Gammagooey and his desire to have Rhinox killed is that the scum could day talk. I want to look back at his posts, but my guess is that if MO thought Rhino was going to bite it he was probably encouraging gamma to buss hard upon replacing in and then they'd both get town cred at the end of the day.

Just a thought for now until I look back though.

[Porkens]

What are people's thoughts on jazz, gamma and myself cross purging each other today?

I love this plan

[Vi]

Incantation:

:arrow:

Jazzmyn (P-5)

~

SpyreX

,

Porkens

VP Baltar (P-6)

~

Gammagooey

Gammagooey (P-6)

~

Porkens

,

VP Baltar

--No Decision--

Nachomamma8,

Jahudo,

Jazzmyn,

Porkens, SpyreX, VP Baltar, Gammagooey

--At Intensity η, it will take 7 Incants to Purge.
--The Intensity will increase on Sunday, February 21 2010...

[Jahudo]

Incant: Gammagooey

I can't honestly say Jazz is town because we haven't seen her long enough or in important phases like that deadline. But besides her willingness to lean most people scum on her 1 set of reads, I don't think anything she's done/not done are alignment tells. So I'm waiting to see what she does today before I would support her purge.

I could believe Sotty using Gespenst on MO. She really thought he was scum, so I think there's a good chance that's what happened. But that doesn't eliminate the possibility of an SK, or some other third party somewhere. So unless I feel really good about 2-3 people being scum, I only want to purge 1 person today. Right now that's Gamma.

@Gamma: Why did you suggest MO and Rhinox cross-voting each other if you thought MO was town?

And why did you list all the possibilities of Rhinox's claim (moychendiser, town with ability, scum with ability) if you were confident that he should be lynched in any case?

3)He's mafia who's taking advantage of Herod's claim of recieving an item for a convincing fakeclaim with very little risk of being cced, given that if the actual moychandaiser claims he's (he being the actual moychandaiser) probably screwed. Possible solution-ask that his next merchandise thing be given to a small pool of one of 2-3 people. If they don't get one and someone else does, LYANCH.

Because here you suggest keeping Rhinox alive to test his claim, and you give voice to this idea even though you don't outright support it.

What happened between here...

Nikanor is awesome, Nacho decidedly less so. slight town based on Nikanor's stuff.

Nikanor is amazing, Nacho inherits his awesomeness. town.

...And here? Yes, Nikanor is great but before Nacho pulled the slot down to slight town. Is he now solid town?

Jazz i don't have a good read on one way or another.

Have you read her walls of text yet?

[Gammagooey]

What are people's thoughts on jazz, gamma and myself cross purging each other today?

I would support this. It would eliminate pretty much the 3 scummiest players in just about everyone's eyes, and give the town one last chance if one scum is hiding in the townie players group.

Jahudo-The biggest reason for it is that Rhino and MO were both at Purge-1 when I came in, and I figured that after around 3 weeks of debating and arguing that my opinion wouldn't actually change much, and that if they were the lynches they should crossvote so that if one is scum they can't pull a free night-kill out of their ass by quickhammering.

On Rhinox's possibilities: This is kind of a habit of mine. I play a lot more on epicmafia.com than I do here (chat mafia site) and in setups with a decent number but still finite number of variables (usually something like janitors and yakuzas in regards to claims) I find it helpful to try and figure out all the possibilities for what the hell could have happened. I think it helps people discuss which possibilities are actually causing what's happening in-game, and thinking up stuff like that helps a ton when crazy stuff happens that would normally wind up as loltownsucksgg (tracker gets a non-visiting bodyguard because the bg got hooked by a roleblocker)
In this specific case it was mostly to point out that although everyone thought he was the moychendaiser, he could be scum leeching off an actual moychendaiser's work to avoid getting cced. (this wasn't actually the case, but alls well that ends well)

TL;DR: I do it to find THE TWOOTH.

Between Nikanor posts was Rhinox's flip, not actually much difference in reads.

I've read through Jazz's text but after that it just goes dead for so long, and I've already screwed up one lurker read pretty bad this game, I just don't feel that I can really gauge Jazz's play accurately.

[Jazzmyn]

What are people's thoughts on jazz, gamma and myself cross purging each other today?

Do you mean another triple purge? If so, I do not support this. As I sadi on Day 1, I thought it was a bad idea then, and I continue to think that it's a bad idea today. Plus, there's that little matter of you having a double vote and that little matter of you being sneaky about using it, so you're not exactly at the top of my list for trustworthiness when it comes to you suggesting a cross-masspurge.

I personally think that Jahudo, Spyrex and Porkens are all town. I'm less sure on Nacho as other seem to be, but whatevs.

I think that Jahudo and Spyrex are probably town, but I can't say that about Nacho, Gamma, Porkens or you, because you all give me pause for various reasons at various times. Recently, Gamma makes some good points about you; you make some good points about Gamma; Jahudo makes some very good points about Gamma; Nacho doesn't really make any good points about anybody; Porkens perked up during the deadline but he's still scummy for wanting 4 purges on Day 1, without even caring whether they were town or scum. As was pointed out on Day 1, a scorched earth approach benefits scum.

We got lucky, it seems, with a second scum being taken out after the mass purge, but unless and until that happened, we would have been in one heck of a hole today due to the mass purge and the subsequent night kill of another townie.

Personally, I think there is only one scum left anyway.

I doubt that there is only one left. With all of the abilities and possibilities listed in the opening posts, and with the flips we've seen whose now known abilities seem to be in some cases quite counter-intuitive, I wouldn't even begin to try to guess the mod's setup but I would be surprised if there wasn't more than one threat left yet (i.e. SK or other third party).

I think the NK on MO could have come from Sotty's Gepenst.

While possible, that seems unlikely because at the time of Sotty's last posts, MO had 4 votes and was on the verge of being purged along with Rhinox, so it would have been rather a waste of her Gepenst ability to target MO with it at that time.

Regards,
Jazz

P.S. I keep getting a "white screen of death" and my post keeps failing to load. (Yes, white screen, not blue screen - this just keeps ending up with a blank, white screen after endlessly long attempts to load) I've been trying for at least an hour now, but no joy. I'll keep trying in case one of these times it works, but I'm going to fall asleep again soon, so I'll have to continue tomorrow.

[SpyreX]

I am 100% behind the triple purge.

[VP Baltar]

Plus, there's that little matter of you having a double vote and that little matter of you being sneaky about using it, so you're not exactly at the top of my list for trustworthiness when it comes to you suggesting a cross-masspurge.

Well,I'm sure you don't believe me, but I can't use my double vote today. I'll prove it:

Double Incant: VP Baltar

There, next vote count will reflect that I'm telling the truth about using my other (A) ability today.

Porkens perked up during the deadline but he's still scummy for wanting 4 purges on Day 1, without even caring whether they were town or scum. As was pointed out on Day 1, a scorched earth approach benefits scum.

Eh, perhaps, but Porkens always shoots from the hip. How much experience do you have with him? He's actually quite good at it as town, so it doesn't particularly surprise me that he would want that many purges in a single day.

We got lucky, it seems, with a second scum being taken out after the mass purge, but unless and until that happened, we would have been in one heck of a hole today due to the mass purge and the subsequent night kill of another townie.

Yes, but we're not. Like I said, I think it was a good shot from Sotty. Getting two scum for three town is a very good trade off even if it's at a rapid pace.

I doubt that there is only one left. With all of the abilities and possibilities listed in the opening posts, and with the flips we've seen whose now known abilities seem to be in some cases quite counter-intuitive, I wouldn't even begin to try to guess the mod's setup but I would be surprised if there wasn't more than one threat left yet (i.e. SK or other third party).

The only thing we would need to be worried about is an SK. A third party is likely to auto-lose in the scenario I'm proposing because they can't obtain their win condition. Right now, I think the evidence strongly points to no SK. Let's look at the third parties:

Lyncher: Most likely this person's targets would have been killed in the mass purges, thus ending their chances to win. I could see people making an argument that I'm the lyncher (and actually quite surprised it hasn't been said yet), but I'm more than willing to let the town pick who I vote today.

Moychendiser: Unless someone claims to have received moychendise apart from Hero, I don't think this role is in the game. It'd be a risky move for a moychendiser to wait until a near lylo situation to start dispatching his/her wares.

Reporter: Nothing to worry about here since once we eliminate what I believe to be the last scum from the game, this role CANNOT win.

Researcher: This role won't win since my plan would never entail a No Purge to actually go through.

SK: Here's your sticking point.

Survivor: This is a possibility I guess, but I'm not exactly sure how one goes about even hunting for a survivor. Even if they did make it to a 4 player endgame, the town would get two chances to lynch him/her correctly since they can't NK. Still a 50% chance for the town to win in that scenario by lynching randomly.

While possible, that seems unlikely because at the time of Sotty's last posts, MO had 4 votes and was on the verge of being purged along with Rhinox, so it would have been rather a waste of her Gepenst ability to target MO with it at that time.

What makes you think Sotty was even online at that time? My guess is that she sent it earlier before the chaos. It resolves at the end of the Incantation phase, so unless she changed it at the last minute, MO was boned for quite some time.

[Jahudo]

Jazzy gets alot of bad luck. Did you by chance break any mirrors or cross any black cat paths?

And I think she's either ignoring or not seeing the logic behind purging SC and Sotty the same day. Since Jazz was the only one not on board with the idea (b/c she was afk), it looks like she's trying to only help herself by opposing the plan now. Unless she has a good reason for opposing this logic:

@Jazzmyn: Everybody was torn between purging Sotty or SC. So if we only purged one and they flipped town, at least half the town would really want to purge the other one next time. Even if one flipped scum, that didn't exclude the other from being third party scum and some people may still see their actions as scummy independent from the pressure SC gave Sotty.

[VP Baltar]

Porkens and SpyreX, I know you guys love the mass purges, but I don't doubt that there

could

be a hole in my plan that I'm not seeing. I don't want to screw the town if I'm wrong. Have you guys closely looked at it? Do you see any potential holes that I could be missing? What do you think are the odds that we have an SK or Survivor in our midst that could throw a wrench in the plan?

[Gammagooey]

A survivor would just win with the town if he was still alive with only townies. If it was survivor, mafia, and 2 town, then yeah that would be a problem. I don't think that's the case though.
No matter what kind of scum, if there's only one left (be it SK or maf) with the 3 townies after the purge, town can still pull it off.

It would be a bit hard to get the number of votes required today, but I have an idea for that, so I'd rather people just say if they like it or not for today.

VP, could you ask the mod whether the ability you got was due to last minute balancing or a game-related mechanic?

[VP Baltar]

VP, could you ask the mod whether the ability you got was due to last minute balancing or a game-related mechanic?

I can ask, somehow I doubt I'll get any kind of clarification like that however.

Sending PM now.

[VP Baltar]

Ok, got my answer. As expected, you can interpret at will. The mod quoted the first two rules under the 'Hawt New Game Mechanics' section.

[SpyreX]

Actually, if you want to get all fancypants here's the real question:

What do you think the chances are there are 2 scum (or anti town, whatevs) left?

[VP Baltar]

Actually, if you want to get all fancypants here's the real question:

What do you think the chances are there are 2 scum (or anti town, whatevs) left?

Me? I would guess one scum and one innocuous third party.

[SpyreX]

I know there'll be too much resistance but if we're looking at A scum left at this juncture and we could balance it out right we could TOTALLY shore this puppy up now: or, at least, roll the hard 6 on it.

I'll look later today and really get my handle on what the potential third party roles are and how they could alter this theoretical win/loss today up in this bouty-bouty.

[Gammagooey]

VP was the line adding Summon the only thing that changed with your role PM? (Aka no removed or additional abilities other than that)

[VP Baltar]

Yeah, that was it Gamma.

[Gammagooey]

So why don't you have Destiny Bond to fill in the player slots like Herod did?

[VP Baltar]

oops, that was there too. I didn't actually look back at the PM.

[VP Baltar]

EBWOP: and before you go "ZOMG LYING SCUM!" the vote count is going to prove that I used it, so you can save your breath.

[Gammagooey]

No, it proves that you either used an Active ability, or that you don't actually have a double vote. Although you probably did use it honestly, I don't see you being ballsy enough to fakeclaim giving an ability to someone when all it takes is people stating whether or not they got anything to test the claim.

And as infuriating as your answers are to me, you could still be town that has just really screwed up their claim. I just don't believe that you are.

[VP Baltar]

I didn't really screw up my claim. This is the first thing where you have legitimately shown me making a mistake in my claim. The initial "lie" you had a problem with has clearly been shown to not be a lie.

[SpyreX]

Alright, while we have time lets lay this out and REALLY DISCUSS IT:

Do we, instead of finding the scum, lay out the highest chance for "who is town" and kill everyone else today?

A survivor may want to screw this up but would have to coordinate WITH the scum to screw it up and we would have to be on the spot to adjust.

Other third parties (Reporter especially) could just, ya know, claim today and we could try to let them get their wincon done if possible - ultimately that is the only chance they'd have to win.

Lynchers would win in most scenarios.

---

I haven't balanced out the absolute mechanics for this yet, of course. Additionally, we'd want every damn one to lay out/use abilities before this happens.

Thoughts?

[Gammagooey]

Look at it from my perspective.
Herod has an ability that would explain why he thought you were lying about your claim, I suggest this possibility and you call me scummy for it.
You admit to having a 3rd ability that you got in a 2nd role PM, meaning I'm scummy for suggesting a possibility that could very well be the truth.
This same 3rd ability exists when you previously stated that using the 2nd doublevote would make you vanilla.
I ask you about whether or not you have an ability that goes with the ability you claimed and you say that you don't, then that you didn't check your role PM and you missed it.

If you were in my position, wouldn't you be a little frustrated right now?

SpyreX-I'm mostly worried about last minute kills and doublevotes, if we purge everyone except one person but the scum has something like Vindictive Being, we would still lose from everyone being dead. I'd personally rather have me, Jazz, and VP lynched and have the last 3 (if the game is still going) find the towniest and have the other two crossvote and get double purged, but I guess that still has the same problems with a kill or Vindictive Being. I dunno.