Open 193 - Friends and Enemies: It's over!

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Oh and if I didn't mention here,

V/LA through Sunday

[Sando]

What about you, Sando? Are you committed to the clergyman cause?

It's like I'm raising a benefit here.

Oh yes, loud and proud.

[VP Baltar]

ok, caught up. I've read hito's epistle and I have to say that any theory ending in "I think ABR and VP could be scumbuddies"is pretty ludicrous.

I still think one of them needs to go today.

SC, I really want you to start speaking in definitive terms now that you've had time to do your "thinking". Who are your number one and two picks to be lynched today?

[hitogoroshi]

That's such a weird little thing to focus on and it's pretty heavily missing the point.

I'm saying that the most logical and likely interpretation of today's events is that both SC and I are town and scum are trying to get a win by mislynching one and calling that as evidence for the mislynch of the other. Your 'one of {SC/Hito} is scum' posts have, whether a conscious scum ploy or a townie thought, contributed to this narrative.

You have to understand the reason I am calling an possible Albert/VP scumteam is not because I think your interactions have been overly scummy. I think Albert is almost certainly scum because of the incredible explanatory power this theory has for his interactions with SC, among other things. When I say there is a good chance for an Albert/VP scumteam, this is not because of associative tells (if I had to pick Albert's scumbuddy based only on his interactions with others, I think it'd probably be Vi) but because of your significant contributions to the pro-scum narrative.

You are, apparently, continuing to contribute in this way, judging by your 'one of them needs to go today' comment.

Do you still think that at least one of us is almost certainly scum?

What would be flipping town make you think about SC?

What would SC flipping town make you think about me?

[hitogoroshi]

I realize that post made me sound more clipped and angry than I really am so let me try again.

VP - forget about the calling Albert's scum partner bit; that can wait. I think there's a fair bit of evidence that this is a situation with a mislynch wagon on each townie. I think that the idea of both of us being town is the only good explanation for Albert's hop. If you don't agree I want to know what your reasons are. Is one of us more likely to be scum than the other? How would each of our town flips affect your read on the other? What other explanation can you think of for Albert's rapid change from SC-is-confirmed-town to SC-is-scum-with-hito?

[Head_Honcho]

Votecount:

SerialClergyman(2): Sando, Albert B. Rampage
hitogoroshi(2): Zorblag, VP Baltar
Albert B. Rampage(1): hitogoroshi

Not Voting(3): Debonair Danny DiPietro, SerialClergyman, Vi
With 8 alive it's 5 to lynch.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Time to lynch.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Mod: Time to Deadline

[VP Baltar]

I'm saying that the most logical and likely interpretation of today's events is that both SC and I are town and scum are trying to get a win by mislynching one and calling that as evidence for the mislynch of the other. Your 'one of {SC/Hito} is scum' posts have, whether a conscious scum ploy or a townie thought, contributed to this narrative.

I honestly feel that this is not the most logical conclusion. Whether you see it or not, I can see a semi-logical explanation for ABR's switch in stance. What I don't think is logical is you coming to the conclusion that SC is town even if you are. You're either suffering from major confirmation bias here against ABR or you're scum with SC. I don't like that both of you have called each other scum today and are suddenly arriving at the conclusion that you're both town for what appears to be no reason more than it has been proposed that one of you should be the lynch today. It's semi-ridiculous.

Do you still think that at least one of us is almost certainly scum?

What would be flipping town make you think about SC?

What would SC flipping town make you think about me?

Yes, I still think one of you is scum. Your reason for saying ABR is scum does not compute. Him rapidly changing his mind seems to be par for the course, so I don't think that really says much of anything, nor do I think he'd be so sloppy if he was scum.

In terms of either of you flipping town, let me put it this way: Vi and DDD are pretty much confirmed town to me based on their play this game. Troll too does not seem as likely to be scum. ABR, as much as I have been reluctant about it, does appear to be honest in his accusations. At this point he's the lowest on my potential scum list for now. Sando is off on his own tanget most of this game, but I haven't picked up many scummy vibes from him. He's on my potential list only by process of elimination. That leaves you and SC standing all alone. Reck's scum meta shows a very strong bias toward bussing his partners. That's a major point against you. SC seemed to do everything in his power to stop the Reck wagon while verbally saying that he found him scummy. That's a major point against him. I don't know any other way to put it than pretty much all of the evidence points to at least one of you guys being buddies with him.

I think there's a fair bit of evidence that this is a situation with a mislynch wagon on each townie.

There really isn't. The main piece of evidence you are presenting is that ABR changed his mind about SC. So what? Did you actually stop to think about what may have caused that? Could it have been the meta I provided and me pointing out that DDD was trying to lynch Reck since early in Day 1? Does that make sense why he would reevaluate his scum list?

I want you to seriously consider this if you're town. If you think SC is town just because ABR flipped his opinion of him, then it might be time to check your facts again. At this point if SC flips scum, you are going to get lynched very quickly and I don't want that if you're town.

As far as if either of you flipped town, of course I would have to reevaluate my position and look at everything again. That's lylo and all bets are off in lylo. As of right now though, it's going to take more compelling evidence than ABR changing his mind to get me to disregard everything else pointing to you two.

[Vi]

After browsing the last six pages, here's my first reaction:

While I 105% hated hito 946, hito 998 looks for all the world like something I would post on a Townscramble (except with much more appeal to own alignment), and that plus "the mechanism" is giving me considerable pause. I'm not getting the same vibes from SerialClergyman, but the words are there. So my first impulse - as per my previous post - is to stop, derail, reverse. But ABR is insistent that this is not an option.

Understand that this is my first truly Open game. I'm not used to caring about outing Masons, etc. because if they were playing a solid Town game, they wouldn't get outed in the first place (and since these setups were closed, I wouldn't know they were there to be outed). I would like to know (from multiple sources if possible) about how big a deal it is that we

necessarily

lynch one of the two claimed Vanillas today.

---

Druglord Baltar: Could you clearly outline why you think hito is scum, and how confident you are that hito is scum?

[VP Baltar]

So my first impulse - as per my previous post - is to stop, derail, reverse.

I'm all about exploring options that make sense, but I think we both know that sometimes your derails are unnecessary and have stopped wagons on scum. I'd like to hear who you think the scum are if not these two.

Druglord Baltar: Could you clearly outline why you think hito is scum, and how confident you are that hito is scum?

It's largely based on Reck's meta, as I said. If you want to add to that, I don't get townie scramble from his post, I see scummy scramble. The mechanism seems pretty contrived to me and I don't like how he's clearing Serial because of ABR.

Now, how confident am I that he's scum? Percentage wise, maybe like 60%. I feel better about Serial lynch at this point and judging after that flip. If serial does flip scum, then I think it is

very

probable that hito is his buddy and they've been painted into a corner by town reads.

[Zorblag]

@hitogoroshi, I've looked at your argument from Post 998 and thought about your mechanism theory. The trouble that I'm having is that I expect Albert B. Rampage to make the sort of switches in his calls that he's been making and I think that you're theory hinges both on that being scummy and calculated rather than being (as seems more likely) somewhat coincidental in it's timing. It seems that it ignores how he's been doing it to others (e.g. Debonair Danny DiPietro and myself) but have I got that wrong? So far as I can tell you're clearing SerailClergyman here based on the only possible motivation from Albert B. Rampage being to exploit one particular, somewhat complicated chain of suspicions.

If both you and SerialClergyman are town then wouldn't it be fairly likely, given that you've been pretty much the only players to be extensively pressured today, that the scum could probably count on being able to go after either of you that was still alive tomorrow anyhow? Why would they need to jump on something SerialClergyman had said in order to get that result?

@SerialClergyman and hitogoroshi, if you were lynched today under what circumstances would you recommend that the town no lynch tomorrow? We've got numbers that suggest that it's a potentially viable plan at some point. Is there any situation that includes your death now which would make tomorrow the time to do it?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[hitogoroshi]

I honestly feel that this is not the most logical conclusion. Whether you see it or not, I can see a semi-logical explanation for ABR's switch in stance.

Then please share, because I don't. Have you ever called someone confirmed town based on wagon patterns, and then a page later floated them as possible scum (only after the 'if I'm mislynched, hito is scum' thing got underway), and then a page later voted them, all without ever providing a single whit of evidence for this except for blatantly lying about your interpretation of events? (Albert said that SC's actions count as a bus, even though early in the day he was using SC as the example of 'people not voting Reck when he was lynched are town' and 'I doubt scum would try to start another wagon'.)

Yes, I still think one of you is scum. Your reason for saying ABR is scum does not compute. Him rapidly changing his mind seems to be par for the course, so I don't think that really says much of anything, nor do I think he'd be so sloppy if he was scum.

It's entirely possible to distinguish between different sorts of rapidly changing your mind. Saying, "I thought X was scum, but post Y is making me reconsider" is incredibly different than "I think X is certainly town because of reason Y, but now he might be scum, no wait, actually, he's certainly scum".

As for this being sloppy - I agree. Are you saying that you think Albert is town because he's acting so scummy he can't be scummy? Because doing sloppy, blatantly scummy things has been WORKING for Albert - if it wasn't for my post I highly doubt anyone would have raised an objection. Even great players like Albert can be sloppy if it works for them - and I think this thread is pretty good evidence that it does.

There really isn't. The main piece of evidence you are presenting is that ABR changed his mind about SC. So what? Did you actually stop to think about what may have caused that? Could it have been the meta I provided and me pointing out that DDD was trying to lynch Reck since early in Day 1? Does that make sense why he would reevaluate his scum list?

This isn't about DDD going off his list, it's very specifically about SC going on.

I want you to seriously consider this if you're town. If you think SC is town just because ABR flipped his opinion of him, then it might be time to check your facts again. At this point if SC flips scum, you are going to get lynched very quickly and I don't want that if you're town.

Are you kidding me? This is the situation I'm least worried about. If we lynch SC and he flips scum, we're not in LYLO and there's only one scum left. You can do a lot worse in that situation than lynching someone who is a.) not a mason and b.) totally wrong about everything.

What I'm worried about is that if we lynch SC and he flips town, or if we lynch me and I flip town, the town will lynch the other one the next day. This is the mechanism, and for someone thinks it's pretty contrived you seem to be putting a whole lot of effort into using it. :3

[Zorblag]

Actually, that last question can be extended to everyone I suppose.

@Vi, this is my first time in this setup but I'm inclined to think that with the information we've got to work with we should be lynching the one who has the greatest chance to be scum given the claims that we've got and who they came from. I don't think the particular pigeonholing concern that Albert B. Rampage mentions isn't that much of an issue for a couple reasons but unless we collectively felt there was a reason to think that someone else had a greater chance of being scum there isn't any a good reason to draw more claims out and there is another issue which is hinted at by the pigeonholing that is worth trying to avoid.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[VP Baltar]

How am I using 'THE MECHANISM' (da da duuuuuuuh)? I just said that if the game goes to lylo all bets are off and everything needs to be reevaluated.

Also, I think you're missing the point of what I'm saying when I mention DDD. ABR started the day thinking that DDD and yourself were scum because you had to have bussed Reck. I pointed out that DDD had been trying to lynch Reck since Day 1, not just day two when it would have been convenient to bus. Therefore, he would have had to reevaluate who he thought the scum pair was. With him out of the picture, suddenly waffle face SC looks much more logical as a potential partner to you. Alles klar?

Also, what do you think about the several other reasonless flip-flops ABR has pulled in this thread? This is why I'm saying it's par for the course. He's gone back and forth on myself and DDD more than once without a lot of reason. Even on Reck he was not stating his thought process in thread. It's annoying, trust me I know, but it doesn't necessarily mean scum if you can find a reasonable explanation for him doing it.

[Zorblag]

@hitogoroshi, Newbie Game 842 was the first game that I played with Albert B. Rampage when he was town (we had a game where we were scum together before that one.) It might be worth taking a look at his play there and comparing it to what he's done here.

If you'd like you can take a look at the scum game (Newbie Game 749) for more of an idea of what I expect from him as scum. Clearly his games aren't going to all be identical to one of the two of those but I think that they gave me a good idea of where to start looking at his behavior when trying to determine his alignment.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[hitogoroshi]

@hitogoroshi, I've looked at your argument from Post 998 and thought about your mechanism theory. The trouble that I'm having is that I expect Albert B. Rampage to make the sort of switches in his calls that he's been making and I think that you're theory hinges both on that being scummy and calculated rather than being (as seems more likely) somewhat coincidental in it's timing. It seems that it ignores how he's been doing it to others (e.g. Debonair Danny DiPietro and myself) but have I got that wrong? So far as I can tell you're clearing SerailClergyman here based on the only possible motivation from Albert B. Rampage being to exploit one particular, somewhat complicated chain of suspicions.

If both you and SerialClergyman are town then wouldn't it be fairly likely, given that you've been pretty much the only players to be extensively pressured today, that the scum could probably count on being able to go after either of you that was still alive tomorrow anyhow? Why would they need to jump on something SerialClergyman had said in order to get that result?

This is actually a good point that I kinda assumed I got out there but never actually showed up in my post.

It's not specifically about having to jump on what Clergyman said. It's that what SC said made it possible. The reason he HAD to is that he gave a confirmed town read on SC. Now, you'd think that Albert would, out of the two popular wagons, want to lynch his 'someone we should have lynched a long time ago' instead of his confirmed town read. But where would that leave him tomorrow after my townflip? He really couldn't pressure the SC wagon, not with him thinking it's confirmed town. He'd have to go for DDD or Zorblag wagons.

That's why my interpretation of events at the start of D3 was that SC and Albert were scumbuddies - because Albert had set it up to avoid SC.

My mind changed quickly when Albert's did.

Why in the world would he suddenly go for SC? Because while most people could go for the other popular wagon after a mislynch, as you said, that wasn't an option for Albert. He can only really do it with SC first and then hito, because he 'suspected' me all along but uncomfortably cleared SC as town before realizing that he would be our other popular lynch target for the day. That's why he had to make sure he 'thought' at least one of us are scum before either of us flipped.

@SerialClergyman and hitogoroshi, if you were lynched today under what circumstances would you recommend that the town no lynch tomorrow? We've got numbers that suggest that it's a potentially viable plan at some point. Is there any situation that includes your death now which would make tomorrow the time to do it?

Hmm. I don't have any friends and enemies experience, but it seems like giving the scum a free chance to potshot a mason doesn't seem like the best idea in the world. My personal call would be to pocket the no-lynch on the off-chance of a lag spike or what have you so we wouldn't have to scramble for a lynch (though with HeadHoncho's lack of deadlines, this is less of an issue.) Then again, I think it might be nice to use it if we hit LYLO tomorrow - it'll make it one person more obvious who the scum is, and if a mason dies we can at least see their posthumous suspicions knowing they are confirmed town.

VP: The difference is that this change ofopinion is one where he formed an opinion based off of specific, objective evidence, and it's not a gut flip-flop but one where he simply decided to start lying about how he interprets the objective evidence.

Thinking someone is town off of your gut and then switching to thinking they are scum off of your gut is one thing. Thinking that someone is confirmed town because they drive a red car and then thinking they are confirmed scum because they drive a red car is different. The first is a change in opinion. The second is, barring a very specific appeal on why we were wrong about red cars all along (note that my line of inquiry to Albert re: SC was repeatedly and willfully ignored), a lie.

And saying you'll 're-evaluate your flips in LYLO' is a bit of a cop-out. You've before stated that, if I flip town, SC is almost certainly scum, and your stated reasons for this make it pretty clear that you'd feel the same in the reciprocal scenario. Do you still believe this? If not, then what would be your interpretation? I don't like that multiple people are basicially saying, "With an SC or hito townflip, my reads tomorrow will be

a mystery.

"

(For the record - I know I haven't given my reads if SC flips scum. That's because I am almost certainly the best lynch candidate tomorrow if SC flips scum, and probably the only reason I'd live is scum trying to save suspicion of me for the LYLO mislynch.)

[Albert B. Rampage]

The reason he HAD to is that he gave a confirmed town read on SC.

Exact quote:

The last scum have to be DDD and hitogoroshi.

Serialclergyman and Vi are almost confirmed town. VPB is like a poor man's charlatan in this game; quite bad at it but thinks he is as good as the good players. I don't have much insight into Sando and Zorblag's play, but I think that DDD and hito makes the most sense.

So the scum were:

RECKONER
DDD
hitogoroshi

I'll have a case up next week.

A short moment later, I posted:

Random observation: SC thinks Sando is town because he doesn't think he'd try to derail a wagon on a scumbuddy at L-1, when SC himself tried to derail the wagon on xRx.

Good point...

And then Sando made his case:

Vote: SerialClergyman

I agree with Zorblag in suspecting Serial and Hito. Hito claiming that the only reason he didn't vote me D2 was that there was no support conveniently ignores the Vi vote on me for a fair amount of D2, which was the same number of votes as ABR had when Hito was 'forced' to wagon him. Thinking Serial is a better lynch for today though.

VPB, your vote isn't Reck-wagon motivated, what is motivating it other than to force someone who is stated as VLA to post?

Vi, you do find my Reck-wagon statements scummy?

VPB agrees:

VPB, your vote isn't Reck-wagon motivated, what is motivating it other than to force someone who is stated as VLA to post?

It is actually. I feel looking back that you weren't commenting much on Reck, which is a viable scum strategy. That being said, I do think Serial may be a better case to pursue and a cursory glance at your case (short on time atm) has me a agreeing with some of your points, particularly the Reck flip and his weird play this game in relation to his meta.

Unvote, Vote: SerialClergyman

Catching up with a few other things in a few hours when I have some more time.

Zorblag agrees:

I voted hitogoroshi over SerialClergyman because my scum read on hitogoroshi is a bit stronger. I'm pretty willing to be part of either wagon today

Vi agrees:

I don't know anything about SerialClergyman's meta, so I can't evaluate that. The rest of your case looks surprisingly decent.

DDD agrees:

Really interesting points from Sando in regards to SC who had been giving me bad feelings since his disaster yesterday with ABR. I guess I expect town-SC to at some point try and convince me of some ridiculous theory he's come up with and doesn't make any sense to me and I haven't see that at all, he's played a rather humdrum conventional game which doesn't mesh with the town meta I have of him. I don't have the other half of the meta so I don't want to make assumptions but it has bothered me.

I think VPB raises good points about PCE and that's why Hito is a bit lower on my list than some. If I'm being brutally honest I don't have a lot of respect for Rec's play so I just don't seeing bussing when another wagon was wide open as his first instinct.

Unvote

Even Hitogoroshi decides to vote:

Sorry for the random silent day there. I've been ADD-ing like hell the last few days (is that a verb? let's say yes) and having such trouble keeping focus it's almost cripplingly impossible for me to get anything done at all. This post may be scatterbrained but at least it's here.

@hito: Nothing will ever come from a vote that isn't cast. I thought you said you were over this meta.~


Elaborate a bit on your thoughts about these two not getting lynched.

If my ABR vote was 'stale' before there's not exactly a whole lot more new stuff to add that would convince anyone at the moment. As for Sando, the biggest thing I didn't like about him after my ISO-posting was his tip-toeing around Reck and that's the sort of thing that you need to them around to talk about.

I like Sando 928. I still don't like how little he had to do with the Reck wagon and the fact that his vote on Vi is rarely pushed and instead gives me the vibe of 'look guys I am voting for a player no one else is, that means I am an independent figure and not scum!" But for reasons you are about to see I'm glad for him helping me finally pin down SC.

@Vi, Albert B. Rampage is probably town at this point. He continues to narrow his attention in a way that I think fits his town play. I disagree with the individual statements he's making (his hitogoroshi is 100% scum stance is pretty ridiculous, I don't agree that both scum need to have been in on the bus and his interpretation of xRECKONERx being forced to follow his lead on PorkchopExpress doesn't seem to be based on anything I can see in the game are a few examples) but if he was scum I'd expect him to still be throwing more flack out there rather than to be this focused.

As I said, I think his focus of 'both scum bussed Reck' is a clever way for ABR-scum to neatly avoid any comment/analysis of his scumbuddy. (For reference, the people not on the Reck wagon yesterday were Vi, Sando, and SC.) You say you'd expect ABR-scum to throw out more flak but I think 'calling the scum' as two within four players strikes me as a perfect space to play in, (especially because I can easily see him abandoning the idea of 'both scum bussed Reck' when D4 starts without anyone batting an eye.)


Basically I think the most likely scumteam is ABR/SC. I'm not gonna compile a pretty case what with my recent focusing issues (this little fart of a post took me over an hour, and I have another game to post in) but you can all see it pretty well I think. Start with my 806 points, add in what I just said to Zorblag about ABR picking a criterion exonerating his buddy, and sprinke in SC's 'gut scum read' on ABR magically and rapidly turning in to a town read (I especially like his every time I try to get out comment - why would you need to get out from a gut scum read? Oh yeah, because he's your scumbuddy and you need to work with him to mislynch in later days.)

I was a bit hesitant to do this because SC-scum could self-hammer, but then I realized that if he does that will probably get me the leverage to finally get you guys with me on an ABR wagon.

So what the hell -

Vote:SerialClergyman

[L-1!]

I'm still leaning hitogoroshi at this point:

I think RECKONER knew that charlatan was going to get lynched, so he bandwagonned his scumbuddy at the end of Day 1 for town credibility.

I say hitogoroshi scum with Serialclergyman or Zorblag.

Then hitogoroshi defends SC out of the blue:

But Albert, I thought you were 100% certain both of Reck's scumbuddies bussed.

SC did vote RECK for a good part of the day, he just unvoted at the last second.

At this point I am ready to lynch either one:

I can go either Serialclergyman or Hitogoroshi today. Both are good candidates.

Then SC posts this:

Hito, my thoughts on Albert have been pretty well documented.

I was neutral on him through D1. He started irritating me on D2 by claiming how right he was with charlatan despite posting a case against him and voting him. I've tried to get him to answer why he made that post but he hasn't responded IIRC. When I asked people to join me on Reck, and Albert was suddenly on and giving permission to hammer L1, I got very suspicious. I said in my switch to vote him that this might be a day early, meaning perhaps I should wait till Reck flipped to see whether the case on Albert was a good one.

Once I switched I had mediocre support. Your case was based on a lot of stuff that Albert can meta away (the OMGUS, for example). Then Ojanen started psyching up and my suspicions were all turned around. I thought her points about VP were solid and my wagon on Albert was going nowhere. I fully expected Reck to flip town. He didn't.

This put Albert's scumminess out the window, because I don't think he'd bus like that and the fire came back into him. It also shook me and my confidence in my understanding of the game. As far as I'm is concerned, Albert is town. DDD too.

I vote for SC to give both wagons a chance, and let DDD decide which one to go with as I believe that will be telling on his alignment later on:

scummy as hell ^^

Unvote, vote SC

At this point DDD holds the power over both your fates.

Hitogoroshi unvotes SC:

Unvote

.

I'll be explaining that one in a minute, but first, Albert, I asked you a question. Please answer it.

I still don't like SC in this scenario and if you're not scum, then I'd say with almost certainty that he is.

Why?

And this is now my current position:

If Vi or Sando is scum, I will have been completely blindsided and will have to re-evaluate the fundamental workings of my scumdar after this game.

SC's conviction of a town DDD, and hitogoroshi's complete avoidance of him, makes me think DDD is also town.

I think VPB is town. I would be far too impressed with him if he were scum, indeed deserving of the mafia scummie award.

Zorblag, despite my universal mix of suspicion and fear of him, seems to be town in this game.

This leaves the two of you to be scum with RECK.

So what hitogoroshi is saying I did....makes zero sense.

So what conclude: Hitogoroshi is scum with Serialclergyman. I want Serialclergyman to go first. And tomorrow we lynch Hitogoroshi when Serialclergyman turns up scum. If Serialclergyman turns up town then I'm not going to blindly rush in to vote hitogoroshi, as the way he is misrepresenting me.

[hitogoroshi]

Albert you're kind of proving my point there.

What you're saying is, in essence, is that you thought SC was town and then some people thought he was scum and then you did too. The problem is that you didn't think SC was town because a lot of people thought he was town. You thought SC was town because he was not voting for Reckoner at the end of D2, and because you highly doubt scum would try to mount a rival bandwagon out of nothing.

Do you see what I'm getting at? Sando thinks SC is scum. VP thinks SC is scum. But why do you care? That doesn't change the fact that he got off the Reck wagon.

You're trying to show that you had a continuous flow from town to scum reads on SC (though your quotes doesn't show the improbable speed.) But that's not at all what I'd suspect from a townie - because you thought SC was town for DISCRETE reasons.

And speaking of those reasons:

But Albert, I thought you were 100% certain both of Reck's scumbuddies bussed.

SC did vote RECK for a good part of the day, he just unvoted at the last second.

Which is saying: 'SC did bus Reck.'

Now let's look back a couple of pages from that:

Thinking back, Sando is town much for the same reason Serialclergyman is. Vi is town because Vi is town.

To be clear, 'much the same reason serialclergyman is' is 'people not voting for the scum are obviously town?'

Yes hito, RECKONER was bussed by both his partners, one of which was yourself.

Unvote, vote hitogoroshi]

That's you saying that 'SC did not bus Reck.'

Translation: you were so busy breadcrumbing a continuous change of opinion on SC (and doing it fast, before the momentum died) that you forgot that your read on SC was for a decidedly discontinuous reason.

As for you saying 'if SC flips town I'm not going to blindly gun for hito the next day' - well, obviously you're not going to do it

now

because I pointed out what a great move it is for scum. But let's look at what you said just eight posts before I pointed it out:

"So hey Zorblag, what's up with your life man?"

I wish I could ask that. But I am too modest to assume that we already have both the scum in our hands. One? Sure. Two? Remains to be seen. I remain humble despite the apparently clear path and purpose laid out before me. My cynical nature coming out? We shall see, my friends, we shall see...

'One? Sure.' As in 'I am sure we have one of the two scum.' Now tell me, Albert, if you have one of the two scum in {me,SC} and SC flips town, who are you lynching the next day? When you say 'I'm not sure we have both scum, but I'm sure we have at least one' that HAS to mean 'they might not be scum, but at least one is' which means 'if SC flips town, lynch hito the next day.'

That's not misrepresentation. That's taking you at your word.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Your whole case against me boils down to this:

ABR YOU SAID X, BUT THEN YOU SAID Y THAT DIRECTLY CONTRADICTS X.

Well yeah...I changed my mind. I no longer thought that unvoting RECK made SC town. I reconsidered that as you made your "random observation". That's when I started thinking SC was scummy.

Read 1067 again, I think you got sidetracked by the agreements bit.

[Albert B. Rampage]

'One? Sure.' As in 'I am sure we have one of the two scum.' Now tell me, Albert, if you have one of the two scum in {me,SC} and SC flips town, who are you lynching the next day? When you say 'I'm not sure we have both scum, but I'm sure we have at least one' that HAS to mean 'they might not be scum, but at least one is' which means 'if SC flips town, lynch hito the next day.'

That's not misrepresentation. That's taking you at your word.

Actually, I was on a sugar high at that time, and I wanted to come across as "humble" and "distinguished". Needless to say, I looked like a paranoid nutcase instead.

[SerialClergyman]

I agree with me going first.

Coming from my alignment it's obvious hito is town. And worse - if you go, they won't accept that I'm town, whereas they damn well should if I go first.

I've been thinking and thinking trying to answer VPs question about who is mafia. But I can't give you a perfect theory. I've had enough of them over the last few days, but I can't just hitch myself to a perfect pairing because it hasn't come to me.

I am happy to think of DDD as town.
I am happy to think of hito as town.
I am

pretty

happy to think of sando as town. (His obstinance is causing some doubt.)

So that leaves Vi, VP, Albert and Zorblag.

And that's where I'm sitting here going around and around in my head.

Interestingly, this also echoes the group of people that sat smiling and nodding and agreeing with Sando's 928. This is WORTH REMEMBERING when I flip. Thar be scum thar.

But I'm going to give an answer, because an answer is important. And my answer is VP. Partner is beyond me. I've been getting town reads on Albert and Zorblag and scum read on Vi but I think that's just because I've been disagreeing with Vi. Albert is faking town enthusiasm very well if he's scum. Zorblag has posted little enough to be hard to read. So Out of those three I'm struggling.

But VP got hit pretty hard by Ojanen's case on D2. We already know that the scum are killing those who are likely to cause problems, as evidenced by Amished's death. Sando has been chastising me for not using NK analysis and I've been giving excuses rather than JUST DOING IT. Ojanen didn't look obviously like a mason to me. And if she didn't look like a mason, then the reason she'd be the kill would be some WIFOM reason (rarely happens) or respect of her ability (possible, but would be limited to a significantly smaller group including VP) or because she was onto something (VP.)

I'll be disappointed if my bad read (mason on Amished) usurped by good read (scum VP) on D1. But so it goes, if that's the case.

Ojanen's bandwagon point is good. Out of the D1 wagoners, we all moved to Reck except VP.

D1 votecount wrote:
charlatan(4):SerialClergyman, Zorblag, Albert B. Rampage, VP Baltar

D1 votecount wrote:
charlatan(5): SerialClergyman, Zorblag, Albert B. Rampage, VP Baltar, Sando

D1 votecount wrote:
charlatan(5):SerialClergyman, Zorblag, VP Baltar, Amished, Vi


D2 fast wagon (L-1) wrote:
xRECKONERx(5): Debonair Danny DiPietro, Zorblag, SerialClergyman, Albert B. Rampage, Vi

VP's dancing around Reck is worth looking at. He didn't vote as the wagon grew, but did post a case. He then followed my switch to Albert, who had been demanding a hammer on Reck for some time. However, and this gives me them ost doubt, he switches BACK to reck before any pressure on Reck grew. He did test out the waters on a hito lynch with ALbert, but that doesn't seem like enough to inspire him to go back. Ugh. But then he unvotes Reck near deadline then revotes after the self-vote.

He was then able to participate in the conversation about toyota corollas but unable to respond to the gamechanging events that were happening, and didn't unvote despite it being a dicey situation.

[Vi]

So my first impulse - as per my previous post - is to stop, derail, reverse.

I'm all about exploring options that make sense, but I think we both know that sometimes your derails are unnecessary and have stopped wagons on scum. I'd like to hear who you think the scum are if not these two.

Well, if hito && SC are not scum, it would most likely be someone who doesn't want the hito/SC wagons derailed. That would be you/Trollblag/ABR.

Sense enough?

Druglord Baltar: Could you clearly outline why you think hito is scum, and how confident you are that hito is scum?

It's largely based on Reck's meta, as I said. If you want to add to that, I don't get townie scramble from his post, I see scummy scramble. The mechanism seems pretty contrived to me and I don't like how he's clearing Serial because of ABR.

I don't understand how you came to this conclusion. Please explain.

This is the first time in a long while that I've heard of someone being painted scum because of someone

else

's meta. Seriously?

----

Troll: Would you like to talk about someone other than hito or SerialClergyman?

What are you getting at with that last question? I don't understand what you're trying to learn from it.

@Vi, this is my first time in this setup but I'm inclined to think that with the information we've got to work with we should be lynching the one who has the greatest chance to be scum given the claims that we've got and who they came from. I don't think the particular pigeonholing concern that Albert B. Rampage mentions isn't that much of an issue for a couple reasons but unless we collectively felt there was a reason to think that someone else had a greater chance of being scum there isn't any a good reason to draw more claims out and there is another issue which is hinted at by the pigeonholing that is worth trying to avoid.

Could you say that more succinctly?

----

Are you kidding me? This is the situation I'm least worried about. If we lynch SC and he flips scum, we're not in LYLO and there's only one scum left. You can do a lot worse in that situation than lynching someone who is a.) not a mason and b.) totally wrong about everything.

hito is Town; get off his wagon.

---

For ABR:

I would like to know (from multiple sources if possible) about how big a deal it is that we

necessarily

lynch one of the two claimed Vanillas today.

[SerialClergyman]

Interesting. We simulposted the same scum list.

[Vi]

Hey SC. Pretend you're ABR for a moment and answer the last question in that post.