Mini 914 ~ Mafia Reverberation (Game Over!)

[SpyreX]

Vindictive Being would only apply if the person we leave is voting for the scum with it.

Thats easy enough to deal with.

I DO, if this was viable, need to go through and look at all the powers and what ones could alter this plan.

Of course, if this was the direction a massclaim would ALSO happen today.

[Jahudo]

@Gamma: what scum motivation would VP have from hiding his Summon ability?
The ability doesn't benefit him, and I don't think he was consciously trying to out whoever gave him the power. More like he was trying to make himself less appealing to scum NKs.

About setup talk:
A big cross purge isn't even possible for another week or so, but it would also be risky with all these role possibilities. Not so much that scum could win today, but we have to consider things like...

Say a purge fails, we have to decide if its Luxomancy (where we might not believe a town would go against the group to save themselves), Protect (where a scum might setup a town getting purged) or Liquid Being (which a town might have, or scum would blame on scum Protect).

And we'd have to prepare for an extra death because of Vindictive Being and Prominence, not to mention an extra scum NK (like if Hero was double purged, or there was a block or no target).

But we could solve the doublevote threat by all trying to doublevote now. Do people want to do that, or is there a good reason to keep that possibility hidden?
I'm okay with that, but I am hesitant to support a full massclaim.

[SpyreX]

Only massclaim IFF we are moving at a mass purge.

I'm glad I'm not the only one with doublevoter paranoia. Now that I'm not allowed to be a POWERFUL WIZARD, no one can.

[Porkens]

doublevote: Jazz

[Porkens]

double Incant: Jazz

[Jahudo]

Double Incant: Jahudo

[Vi]

Incantation:

:arrow:

Jazzmyn (P-4)

~

SpyreX

,

Porkens

,

--INCANT--

Gammagooey (P-5)

~

VP Baltar

,

Jahudo

VP Baltar (P-6)

~

Gammagooey

--No Decision--

Nachomamma8,

Jahudo,

Jazzmyn

--At Intensity η, it will take 7 Incants to Purge.
--The Intensity will increase on Sunday, February 21 2010...

[VP Baltar]

If you were in my position, wouldn't you be a little frustrated right now?

I understand where you're coming from, but I'm saying that you following up on hero's attack that I'm "lying" is bullshit. There was nothing about it that was a lie when I originally made it. It is possible that he gave me the ability (which I guess would have been Destiny's Bond, not Summon), but even if he did I never freaking lied about it because there is only one way it could have resolved, and that is the way I described. As I stated before, there was absolutely no benefit to the town in twilight to me claiming an extra ability beyond my double vote, but just because I was intentionally cryptic does not mean it was a lie or even scummy. The purpose was to keep me alive so I could pass on an additional and potentially powerful abililty to the town. Now that I have served my purpose, I'm fine with dying. It means nothing to me because I have succeeded in increasing the town's chances of winning.

Now, I can see how you might feel weird about me not recalling the Destiny's Bond portion correctly, but really for all intents and purposes Destiny's Bond and Summon are one ability. I had to pick two names and then select from three abilities to give to one of those two players. They are interrelated to the point that I had placed them as the same thing in my mind. That is my fault, but I don't even see what you are perceiving to be any sort of scum benefit to me from claiming what I did.

I did feel you were scummy in your push on me because I think the scum would view me as a damn easy target to get a mislynch on, which is largely why I am advocating that I die today. HOWEVER, I think Jazz's reaction to the plan is the most interesting. Sure, you could be bluffing about wanting to follow that plan, but you seem genuine enough. Jazz immediately wanting to dismiss it seems like scum shuffling to save themself.

Hmmm, I need to review the abilities closer I guess in terms of a mass purge. My intial feeling however is that town has no reason to save themself, even if they have the ability to do so. I guess there is the possibility of a scum protecting a town player just to get a mislynch the next day, but I don't know how much benefit that would even give them. Say they did and the other two players were purged and flipped town. That would leave 5 players alive (Jahudo, Porkens, Spyrex, Nacho, Player X). Then say Player X is lynched for not dying. That still puts the scum in 3 person lylo...which is where they would have ended up anyhow.

Still, other abilities are worth considering probably. All I will say is that if we do follow that plan, town players NEED to let themselves be purged.


Aaaand Porkens can double vote....ok.

[Jazzmyn]

Eh, perhaps, but Porkens always shoots from the hip. How much experience do you have with him?

Next to none. I seem to recall that we were in a game together once, but that's about it.

Yes, but we're not.

Getting lucky once doesn't make it a good idea to multi-purge again. Plus, I just think it's more fun to play the game using the abilities that we have rather than just trying to break the game or turning it into a matter of statistical bits and bytes. Maybe it's just me.

Like I said, I think it was a good shot from Sotty.

I know that's what you've said, but as I've said, the timing doesn't make sense.

What makes you think Sotty was even online at that time?

The fact that she was posting then. As previously mentioned, when she put the 4th vote on MO, that put MO into a tie with Rhinox, so she was obviously aware of that, and had every reason to believe that MO would be purged, thus it seems it would have been a waste of her Gepenst ability.

My guess is that she sent it earlier before the chaos. It resolves at the end of the Incantation phase, so unless she changed it at the last minute, MO was boned for quite some time.

I don't know why you are guessing this, though, and looking at the timing of her votes, that doesn't really make sense. If she had previously sent in MO as a target for her Gepenst ability, it makes no sense for her to have moved her vote to MO at the last minute like she did, since she would have known that MO would die anyway, and she could have left her vote where it was, knowing that both her vote and her ability would count.

The only thing we would need to be worried about is an SK.

That's the thing I'm most worried about; I'm not sure that it's the only thing to be worried about.

<snipped...>

I have to look at the opening posts again in order to analyze this part of your post, so I will come back to it later.

Jazzy gets alot of bad luck. Did you by chance break any mirrors or cross any black cat paths?

Nah, I don't actually get any more bad luck than I do good luck; if luck exists, I think it all balances out overall.

And I think she's either ignoring or not seeing the logic behind purging SC and Sotty the same day.

You're right that I didn't see the logic in it, because nobody pointed it out or explained how it was 'logical'.

Since Jazz was the only one not on board with the idea (b/c she was afk), it looks like she's trying to only help herself by opposing the plan now.

I think I made it quite clear on Day 1 that I would not be on board for purging any of Sotty, you or Herod, and that I would not be on board with purging more than 2 players, so it's not something that I've newly come up with to "help myself".

@Jazzmyn: Everybody was torn between purging Sotty or SC. So if we only purged one and they flipped town, at least half the town would really want to purge the other one next time. Even if one flipped scum, that didn't exclude the other from being third party scum and some people may still see their actions as scummy independent from the pressure SC gave Sotty.

I would certainly understand that if it was the case, but I didn't read that insane time as everyone being torn between purging Sotty or SC. It looked more like last minute horsetrading, with scum having a big fat hand in it. Granted, I wasn't able to be there when it was going on live, so it's entirely possible that I missed something in the translation, but if you could point out what you mean when you say that everyone was torn between those two, I'll gladly look at it again.

More to follow, as I read the rest.

Regards,
Jazz

[Gammagooey]

First Incant(stays on):VP Baltar
Double Incant/Incantum Imaginarium:Gammagooey

Yeah, slept on it and still like the triple purge then a double purge of the remaining two if it gets that far.
What I hereby support:
Me,Jazz, and VP getting lyanched today.

An almost massclaim also happening today- I think everyone should fullclaim every ability EXCEPT for three if they exist: Foresight, Sixth Sense, and Third Eye. If one person has any of those abilities, they can create either a nigh-confirmed town or find (hopefully) the last scum. This allows anyone with Third Eye to test one person's abilities without worrying about them changing them after the investigation.

The final 3 (one of the last 4 dies from the NK) decide on the most towniest tommorrow if the game is still going, and the other two crossvote and get double purged. (you should probably test for double votes again while it's still 3 to purge).

Also Porkens is the doublevote a one-shot or no?

Thoughts/feelings/Flaws/Annoyances/Shenanigans of this plan?

[Gammagooey]

Blah bolding

Double Incant:Gammagooey

[Jahudo]

@Jazzmyn, here's the cliff notes for team SC vs. team Sotty.

Wanted to purge SC:

You guys are lunatics. SC/Rhinox.

I'd prefer SC/Rhinox

SC and MO for scumteam 2010, but that's beside the issue.

Wanted to purge Sotty:

I don't think that SerialClergyman is a good option at this time.
I can live with Rhinox and Sotty7.

I will support a Rhinox/Sotty purge.

I support Rhino/Sotty for the lynchings.

Yea, lets make Sotty / Rhinox happen.

Jazzmyn and Nacho, can you try to double vote?

[VP Baltar]

Mod: If one were to use the Gepenst action, could the kill choice be submitted during Twilight?

[Porkens]

That is how MO died, no?

[VP Baltar]

That's what I think, but Jazz doesn't believe it apparently.

[Jazzmyn]

@Jazzmyn, here's the cliff notes for team SC vs. team Sotty.

Well, that doesn't really accurately reflect what occurred, nor does what occurred support your prior assertion that "everyone was torn between purging Sotty or SC" since people were all over the map with wanting to purge players other than Sotty or SC (for instance, you started out saying you wanted to purge MO and SC, later suggested Rhinox/Sotty/MO, later Sotty/SC, etc., while others were suggesting Rhinox, gamma, Herod, etc.), but I don't see that anything really turns on that. But thanks for your summary.

The reality is that the triple purge came out of nowhere, and happened because VP Baltar pulled out his double-vote ability in a dodgy manner, and the result was multiple dead townies by the start of Day 2. We got lucky that someone hit MO before the start of Day 2, but I don't think we should count on getting lucky again.

Jazzmyn and Nacho, can you try to double vote?

I don't have a double vote ability, so this won't mean anything but here you go:

Double Incant: Jahudo

(Not an indication that I think you're scum, just voting at your request)

That's what I think, but Jazz doesn't believe it apparently.

Actually, earlier you said that you thought Sotty had used her Gepenst ability long before the end of the Incantation and that is what I said didn't make sense in light of the timing of her voting. Because it

wouldn't

make sense to move her vote to MO when she did if she had used her ability on him, since doing so would effectively nullify either her vote or her ability.

In any event, the main problems that I have with mass purging are that (a) it ignores the possibility/likelihood of a SK who stands to benefit greatly from a mass purge; and
(b) it reduces the game to a mechanical application of statistical probabilities and doesn't allow us to use the unique abilities that we have been given to root out the remaining scum.

With respect to (a), I think that those who are advocating a mass purge are among the most likely candidates for scum/SK/other third party roles. I'll have to cross-reference that list with the list of those who were advocating Sotty's lynch yesterday to see what that yields.

With respect to (b), I find that a rather boring way to play (and a bit insulting to the game mod, who didn't come up with a unique design and unique abilities only to have the game played as a Math 101 question). I would much rather use the abilities I've been given and play the game than meekly agree to just roll over and die because someone thinks that reducing it to mathematics is the way to go.

That said, if the rest of you are bound and bent on it, there's nothing I can do about it, but I'm not going to pretend that I like it just to appease anyone.

I still haven't quite wrapped my mind around the other potential third party roles, or how a mass purge impacts them either negatively or positively, or how several of the listed potential abilities may be allocated or even existent, but I'll work on that. Not tonight, though, as the men's Olympic hockey game between Canada and the U.S. starts in 35 minutes and I can't miss that. Go, Canada, go!

Regards,
Jazz

[Gammagooey]

@Gamma: what scum motivation would VP have from hiding his Summon ability?
The ability doesn't benefit him, and I don't think he was consciously trying to out whoever gave him the power. More like he was trying to make himself less appealing to scum NKs.

The only reason I could think of is that he would hide it to prevent himself from looking too powerful: Both of the other two mafia have 3 active abilities, with only one townie having that many. With the abilities VP has he seems to be around the power level of Sotty if the Summon was given as a balancing mechanism by Vi, and Sotty was stated to be one of the most experienced townies.

And no, that doesn't make him mafia, but things like that make me really, really paranoid. At this point if I HAD to choose between him and Jazz I would probably go Jazz for opposing the triple purge, saying that the people advocating it are most likely scum/SK (especially when me and VP are both suggesting that we be lynched with her) and not giving any solid alternative or lynch in place of a triple purge, only stating that me and VP both have good points about each other.

However, if I let VP get away with the last-second lynch of SC and screwing up his claim and he turns up scum, I would be raging at myself for quite some time.

A little elaboration on the triple purge and why I like it: If VP or Jazz is the last scum, they're f---ed. There's pretty much nothing they can do to win it at that point, no matter what abilities they have. A mass purge today that leaves only one person has just about the exact same risks that leaving 4 alive today do and waiting until tommorrow to purge 2 more does- if theres a scum with Gepenst in the townie block, they could kill the last townie and win via scorched earth whether they're lynched today or not. I don't think that's likely due to all the double voters, but I think most combinations of problems that exist in a triple lynch would also screw us over in a mass purge (unless we leave 2 townies alive instead of one, which is also damn risky).

So yeah. Anyway.

VP, since you're suprised nobody's mentioned it, I might as well ask. If you were a lyncher, who would your last target be?

[VP Baltar]

VP, since you're suprised nobody's mentioned it, I might as well ask. If you were a lyncher, who would your last target be?

Myself obv. Why do you think I put myself on the to be purged list today? Am I bending your mind yet?

(I'm not a lyncher)

I agree with gamma that Jazz shooting down the multi-purge while providing no alternative plan is shady at best. Additionally, making the argument that multi-purges are trying to win the game on math is silly. 1) It's the same kind of setup speculation that is engaged in with any normal mafia game. We as the town need to use the tools made available to us to guarantee our best chances of victory. 2) In no way is this subverting the mod's setup. The purges were designed to be used in this exact way...otherwise Vi wouldn't have made that an option. 3) Purging relies on scumhunting and not abilities, which time and again has proven to be the best way to win mafia games.


I don't like how silent Nacho is being. Still don't understand anyone's town read on him.

[Gammagooey]

Because the whole staying alive to win thing definitely doesn't matter at all .

Nacho himself doesn't actually deserve the town read, Nikanor is the same player slot though and pushed Rhino pretty damn hard.

Hey Nacho, I was pretty sure I saw you viewing this forum at the same time I was earlier today, why no posts?

[Jazzmyn]

I agree with gamma that Jazz shooting down the multi-purge while providing no alternative plan is shady at best.

Except, of course, that I

have

provided an alternative plan: not multi purging, playing the game, and utilizing

all

of our abilities to nail scum, instead of just sloughing things off to statistical probabilities in a manner that assists a SK or other third parties.

I disagree with the rest of your post, as well, to the extent that the last multi purge was not based on scum hunting, but was based upon certain players getting giddy about multi purging just because they could. That is very well evidenced by the posts and by the results.

If it was based on scum-hunting, I wouldn't be so opposed to it, but there is no evidence whatsoever that that was the case on Day 1 and none whatsoever that it has been a consideration on Day 2.

But, like I said, if the rest of you are bound and determined to do this, there's nothing I can do to stop it but that doesn't mean I'll stop vocalizing my opposition to it just to appease others.

And *sigh* @ the result of the men's Olympic hockey Canada v. USA game. Looks like it's up to the women's team to kick tail - again.

Regards,
Jazz

[Gammagooey]

Yes, you suggest individual purges and using night abilities to find scum.

Except you aren't actually suggesting any particular individual purge, and I don't see you scumhunting right now. Don't expect other people to do the work for you, suggest a purge and give reasons why if you want today to go that way.

[Jahudo]

Let's talk about Rhinox behind his back. Does anyone think he could have been distancing/bussing Porkens or Nacho?

He went after Porkens earlier and on a small issue (the newbcard joke in Rhino's second post).

If found this pretty funny:

@Nacho: I'm displeased with your entrance to the game. No thoughts on other players besides Zor? Is MO your scum partner?

Rhinox called out Nacho for supporting a wagon that MO also supported. It actually looks like he's trying to distance from MO with this post, so its possible he could try to distance Nacho. But he'd also be trying to derail his buddies mislynch attempt, which seems odd since Rhinox made little attempt to support a viable wagon. Unless zoraster wouldn't have been a mislynch.

And then Rhinox admitted he didn't know Nacho was V/LA when he asked for a prod on Porkens and Nacho. If they were scumbuddies then Rhinox should have known his buddy was V/LA, but that doesn't mean it wouldn't be a bad idea to prod for the sake of prodding.

The post before Rhinox claimed, he said he preferred a Porkens purge over Nacho. And at times he seemed more willing to talk with Nacho, but just wanted to keep pressure on Porkens and say he'd be a good purge. This part makes me think Porkens is less likely of the two to be in the light mafia.

[Nachomamma8]

Ohai guys, remember me???

Incant: Jazz

Vote: Jazz

Double Incant: Jazz

Incantum Duelium: Jazz

Anyways, I think the triple purge of Jazz/VP/Gamma is bad because I'm pretty sure that VP and Gamma are town. Instead, the purge should be me, Porkens, and Jazz. I don't mind dying because 1) I'd be going out with a bang, and 2) I'd be bringing the scum with me. Then, if for some off-the wall reason the game isn't over, VP and Gamma double purge one another.


Other than that, she lately really hasn't had any scum reads whatsoever. In her series of analysis posts, she really didn't follow up on any of her scumreads at all, and after those analysis posts, she's called a couple of people town, but hasn't said that anyone is even close to scum. I really don't like how her analysis post was afraid to call scum, instead calling town or neutral or neutral/leaning scum (the epitome of fence-sitting, might I add). And I'd like to add that I love the fact that she's been offering alternatives to the mass purge (like... playing the game), and yet she's not scumhunting at all. She's also putting on the act of the resigned townie "Well, you guys are stupid and this is a horrible idea... but there's nothing I can do to stop this."
I also don't like how timid she's playing, take for example her ISO 26, where she double-votes Jahudo and feels compelled to explain that it's not because she's suspicious of him...

Porkens:
The only evidence I really have against him is Rhinox's and Jazz's weak attacks against him, and the almighty process of elimination. Probably will look into it tomorrow when I have more time, but he's my second choice for scum.

Coming soon to a mafia game near you: Why Spyrex/Jahudo are town! :O

[Porkens]

Where you been?

[Nachomamma8]

I don't normally post on Fri-Sat because those days are me-time...