Open 193 - Friends and Enemies: It's over!

[Vi]

Vi - this is what I thought was interesting. Are you sticking with sando town or is he in the pool?

Not really. Sando and DDD aren't on this list for what reason?

I've acknowledged that I was incorrect about Sando not pushing both hito and SC. So he's back in the pool of people I'd like to look into, albeit on the shallow end because I still like his case coming from a motivation perspective - he came out and attacked someone who had previously not had any vote-type pressure (barring me and to a lesser extent VP Baltar at the beginning of D3) with a meta argument Sando-scum would be out of his gourd to fake.

The reason I called DDD-Town earlier was because his vote record has mostly been early on wagons, which is different from Appenine Mafia where he shamelessly jumped around late on wagons.
While I don't like his votes individually, the gist of things so far is that he's not hurting anything or anyone, so I would like to look at the people who ARE moving and shaking before going on to seriously consider him again.

Seriously. For all of his stupendous scumminess, Reckoner seems to me to have a limited bag of tricks at this point in his mafia career. I see no reason to believe that he wouldn't play to his scum meta here. It's not damning evidence of course, but logically I think it does fit with his play D1 and why he would vote PCE over charlatan even though he talked about the latter about 10 times as much in his catch up post.

So your case on hitogoroshi is that xRx is extremely predictable, essentially.
Doesn't that seem just slightly feeble? especially as the bulk of the case.

Please (VPB and DDD) explain your thoughts on hito 998 being scummy and contrived.

Vi, who--bless her heart--is overly susceptible to distrusting obvious facts.

Why would you take out the two people being wagoned? Why??

After being out of the loop for a week, I felt/feel like I'm replacing into this game. I'm coming back and while catching up all the reads I was picking up were more or less opposite what they were before. So right now, I'm calling things as I see them.
Now if someone could kindly explain

what

"obvious facts" I'm missing, it would be reasonably helpful.

Thor isn't going to split open the skies and send thunderbolts to destroy the town if we make another bandwagon. It's simply extremely unwise.

Why?

The vote count makes me <_<.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Now you are claiming that you have new reads. That is not what you said earlier.

You clearly said that you were looking for scum by leaving aside the two bandwagon leaders, DDD and Sando.

In other words, you were looking for scum within the group of myself, Zorblag and VPB. Now it doesn't make sense for a mason to completely dismiss 4 players from being scum when he in fact only has one partner left. So with that out of the picture Vi, I ask you, why would you give all these players absolution? Do you want the two scum to be among myself, VPB and Zorblag?

I have perfectly explained why and when I turned around with Serialclergyman. I expect at least the same from you with SC, VPB and hitogoroshi.

[Sando]

Serial: Hito, you're scum.

As for a 'perfect' situation for scum. Consider that Vi has never been seen as scum by anyone but me, who hasn't mentioned him today, perfect situation for scum. Zorblag literally hasn't been voted the entire game, including in RVS even, perfect situation for scum. I've gone from being seen as probable scum to openly agreeing that I'll lynch 2 people in 2 days regardless of flip, and being called town for it, perfect for scum.

The argument of 'look at this situation, it's perfect for scum' doesn't ring true, there's so many perfect situations for scum in this game. And as I said, show me who you think is scum (it's not a big field after you eliminate you and Hito) or give it a rest. If this is being capitalised on by scum, you're in the best situation to show who and how, just throwing out a generalised 'this is too good to be true' accusation is just confirming my suspicions at this point.

[Vi]

Now you are claiming that you have new reads. That is not what you said earlier.

I know my version of reading comprehension is always a little off, but this doesn't suggest "new reads"?

While I 105% hated hito 946, hito 998 looks for all the world like something I would post on a Townscramble (except with much more appeal to own alignment), and that plus "the mechanism" is giving me considerable pause. I'm not getting the same vibes from SerialClergyman, but the words are there. So my first impulse - as per my previous post - is to stop, derail, reverse.

So with that out of the picture Vi, I ask you, why would you give all these players absolution? Do you want the two scum to be among myself, VPB and Zorblag?

Impressive rhetorical question.
I took out the two people being wagoned (that being

the point

) and two people I thought were not contributing to the sketchy behavior I saw so I could focus on the people who were left.
This is really not rocket surgery.

Also, I'm guessing from your fish that the two-wagon limit really isn't that necessary.

I have perfectly explained why and when I turned around with Serialclergyman. I expect at least the same from you with SC, VPB and hitogoroshi.

I'm afraid I'm going to fall short of your expectations, as I can't provide a post-by-post chronology of my opinions.

I've already explained hito and VP Baltar well enough for people who read my posts to get the idea.
My change of opinion on SerialClergyman came about around 1028. It's not strong enough for me to call for mass unvotes like with hito 998, but it was enough to get me to unvote so the hito+SC doublewagon could get an examination.

In the meantime,

Now if someone could kindly explain what "obvious facts" I'm missing, it would be reasonably helpful.

This is still open.

---

Who is more likely to be town after the townflip of the other, me or hito?

What is your purpose in asking this question?

[VP Baltar]

So your case on hitogoroshi is that xRx is extremely predictable, essentially.

Yes, not the greatest I know, but Reck's consistency as scum certainly unsettled me.

HOWEVER.....

I've been isoing hito to look at things more from his side in relation to the Reckoner wagon, and I came across this little gem:

Notice what happened here. Reckoner was at L-1, and then suddenly these two slipped off of the wagon (and let's be honest, THEY were specifically what made the Reck wagon seem less popular and possible today.) They did it by 'gunning' for each other, but now ABR seems to have forgotten SC entirely and SC has been doing his damndest to suck any energy from the ABR wagon while he's sitting on it.

This is actually kind of an interesting point, but we seem to be seeing a different story from hito today with regards to these two (ie, ABR is the grand schemer trying to get SC).

It's possible he forgot about this; I know I did. hito, thoughts on SC-ABR scumpair?


Now, I will say on the other (third?) hand that hito did sort of play the "Reck's big time scum" card quite awhile yesterday without voting. It gives me a bit of pause, but it is plausible that it came from town.

Hito, can I get your updated thoughts on Sando?

Now if someone could kindly explain what "obvious facts" I'm missing, it would be reasonably helpful.

When I said this, I was mostly referring to...well....pretty much everything SC has said in the past two game days. His play around the Reckoner wagon reeks of scum and today he seems more than a touch lost, which is exactly what happens to me as scum when I'm in a game and there is a large set of players calling each other town.

[Albert B. Rampage]

I am extremely disappointed by you Vi, and quite frankly, I have neither the patience nor the inclination to lecture you about the intricate minutia of a hardly barefaced fraudulence begging on its knees and tears for our votes. Word of advice: obtuseness and obduracy make ill partners, especially when induced by garrulous histrionics employed as last-resort desperation tactics. You know what, I'll spare you the castigation. I want SC inexorably removed and forgotten about by the end of the week.

[SerialClergyman]

What is your purpose in asking this question?

To work out who should die if we don't get the support we should.

His play around the Reckoner wagon reeks of scum and

today he seems more than a touch lost,

which is exactly what happens to me as scum when I'm in a game and there is a large set of players calling each other town.

Holy shit in a handbasket VP, THIS IS WHY I AM TOWN. I've been in a situation where i'm scum and everyone is calling for my lynch, Albert knows the game very, very, well and that's NOT my reaction. Lost is TOWN.

[VP Baltar]

meta /wrists


'member?

[SerialClergyman]

Well, I can at least usei t accurately.

But forget my specific meta then. How do you get lost = scum? The whole purpose of scum is that they ahve the information that the majority doesn't. That doesn't equal lost...

[hitogoroshi]

So your case on hitogoroshi is that xRx is extremely predictable, essentially.

Yes, not the greatest I know, but Reck's consistency as scum certainly unsettled me.

HOWEVER.....

I've been isoing hito to look at things more from his side in relation to the Reckoner wagon, and I came across this little gem:

Notice what happened here. Reckoner was at L-1, and then suddenly these two slipped off of the wagon (and let's be honest, THEY were specifically what made the Reck wagon seem less popular and possible today.) They did it by 'gunning' for each other, but now ABR seems to have forgotten SC entirely and SC has been doing his damndest to suck any energy from the ABR wagon while he's sitting on it.

This is actually kind of an interesting point, but we seem to be seeing a different story from hito today with regards to these two (ie, ABR is the grand schemer trying to get SC).

It's possible he forgot about this; I know I did. hito, thoughts on SC-ABR scumpair?

I actually did address this earlier, but with how big my posts have been lately I can't really fault you for it. Basically, at the time of my voting SC I did still believe in an Albert-SC scumteam, because Albert confirming SC as town via his 'both scum bussed' theory worked really well to let him not have to comment on SC. However, his recent actions have made NO sense. While this could be a high level bus, I severely doubt it, and I think Albert's quick switch to SC-is-scum is probably proof enough they aren't scumbuddies.

Now, I will say on the other (third?) hand that hito did sort of play the "Reck's big time scum" card quite awhile yesterday without voting. It gives me a bit of pause, but it is plausible that it came from town.

As I said, I had nothing against a Reck wagon but I don't like having a one wagon day most of the time - which I think is justified here, seeing all the content that prolonging the day brought out.

Hito, can I get your updated thoughts on Sando?

I don't know. I have a gut town read on him but that doesn't make any SENSE.

Let me pick at one of his recent posts so I can try to articulate. I also missed a question aimed at me in this post so I'll disgress to answer it when it shows up.

Yes, I if nothing else happened right now, and Serial was lynched and flipped town, all things being equal, I'd gun for Hito tomorrow. But I'd gun for Hito if he flipped scum as well... I don't like linkage cases, and I think you are both independantly scummy, and independantly the scummiest players in the game at the moment, by far.

This is exactly what I thought the scum would be doing, and a lack of linkage cases is exactly what I think scum are going for.

Considering that you and Serial are saying that each other is town, it seems unlikely that scum will turn around tomorrow and say 'zomg Serial was pushing Hito, and Hito was town, Serial is obv scum!'. Be funny if they tried though.

Which misses the point that we were going for EACH OTHER when the two wagons swelled, which is the situation I believe scum were trying to exploit. I do think they would have said 'serial was pushing hito, hito was town, serial is obv scum' (or more likely they'd hit SC first) prior to 998. That was the POINT of 998.

So where the hell am I getting my town read? I don't know, and perhaps we should just ignore it. Maybe it's because I'm more inclined to look for scum among those who expressed a 'lynch both' sentiment prior to 998 and are now expressing a 'lynch one, then everything I think is a mystery stop asking' (hi albert, hi vpb). I'm calling it because it's there, but I can't think of why except that perhaps I see the most sincerity is his attacks and less of the 'no real preference between the two' that's permeated the thread.

Now to your question, Sando:

Hito, you've said you don't think I'm scum, if ABR isn't scum, what about your theory? Can anyone else be the scum setting this up?

Zorblag or VPB (the later of which actually saidif hito flips town SC is almost certainly scum', though of course now he's saying he would re-read with a townflip) have both expressed the viewpoint that could have set this up.

I think there virtually HAS to be at least one scum among Albert, VPB, and Zorblag (not exactly a definitive list, I know) and it's strongly possible both are.


Also PSA for everyone (and I know Vi in particular was looking forward to it :p): this game just completed a few hours ago and I can now say that I officially have scum meta. Not sure how much help this'll be to anyone - I basicially just played as townie as I could in that game so it's probably not much different than normal - but since that's my first scum game I figure I'd announce this right away for anyone who wanted hito scum meta.

[Sando]

This is exactly what I thought the scum would be doing, and a lack of linkage cases is exactly what I think scum are going for.

Yeah, I know that's your thinking, hence why as a townie I think your reasoning is bad. Scum avoiding a linkage makes little sense, you can't say 'I will lynch x today and y tomorrow irrespective of flips' and expect people to go along with it. Scum are the ones likely to try and set up a linkage of saying 'well if Serial flips town, that means Hito must be scum because of xyz links'.

Zorblag or VPB

Zorblag is one lucky SOB if so, he names 2 scum, and happens to get me to not only agree with him, but make a case on him. VPB I'll accept.

Only way I'm getting off either of you is for another case, just saying 'zomg if you're wrong town will lose' is not going to convince me or scare me off. This more specifically applies to Serial, Hito has at least provided some ideas on who is scum based on what's happening, I just don't buy it at the moment. I've asked Serial multiple times to provide specific accusations on players surrounding this scum-conspiracy, with no response.

[hitogoroshi]

Yeah, I know that's your thinking, hence why as a townie I think your reasoning is bad. Scum avoiding a linkage makes little sense, you can't say 'I will lynch x today and y tomorrow irrespective of flips' and expect people to go along with it. .

That's kind of ignoring the elephant in the room that people DID say that and everyone WAS going along with it, and as far as I can tell, you still are.

[Sando]

Yeah, I know that's your thinking, hence why as a townie I think your reasoning is bad. Scum avoiding a linkage makes little sense, you can't say 'I will lynch x today and y tomorrow irrespective of flips' and expect people to go along with it. .

That's kind of ignoring the elephant in the room that people DID say that and everyone WAS going along with it, and as far as I can tell, you still are.

My understanding is that those going along with it are going along with the 2 separate cases, and what is wrong with that?

[Zorblag]

So here's a problem that I've got with things that have been happening lately. Both hitogoroshi and SerialClergyman, after originally having suspected each other, seem to have come to the conclusion that both of them are almost certainly town and they both think (or at least have thought at different times) that it's best to lynch them and that this should for various reasons make it much less likely that the other will flip scum. Do correct me if I've got the basic story there wrong from either angle but that's what I seem to be seeing.

From hitogoroshi this still seems to be based on what I think is a misread of Albert B. Rampage's play and still seems to rely on Albert B. Rampage being scum for it to make sense. For SerialClergyman it's apparently a more a general shape of game argument, everything just fell into place too easily for everyone's reads to be town motivated and hitogoroshi's willingness to take that lynch today to help the town is moving.

To top it off both of them are now making the case that anyone who is saying that at least one of the two of them is probably scum has a pretty good chance of being scum trying to set up a pair of mislynches for the win.

I suppose that I could see two members of the town coming to all these conclusions simultaneously, deciding that they trust each other and backing up their complementary overall game view. I don't see why it would have to be true though. I'm not sure how we're supposed to expect scum to act here but I sure don't think that either of them as scum would have any problems with trying to get the game to go along with that set of assumptions.

I don't currently have a great reason to think that anyone has a better chance than the two of them of being scum. I don't buy the arguments against Albert B. Rampage or VP Baltar. I do think that after the flip today it is going to be worth looking at what's happened today and using that to try to figure out who had the most to gain but I'm not interested in holding off on what I think the best lynches are because I'm worried that lynching one of them and having the come up town is likely to lead to the mislynch of the other. I think that describing that sort of attitude as "my thoughts will be a mystery after a potential mislynch today" or something of the sort is something of a spin job.

@hitogoroshi, that strikes me as a particularly non-committal answer to the question of whether we should consider a no lynch tomorrow. Still, I suppose it's more than I got from SerialClergyman.

For what it's worth, if we do lynch town today I think that we're probably best served tomorrow with a mass claim and then a lynch if a mason is not a night kill or a no lynch with no claim (and probably minimal discussion) if a mason is the night kill.

Does it surprise you that you don't seem to have much of a read on Debonair Danny DiPietro yet (or have I got that wrong on your part?)

@Vi, I'm not hugely interested in talking with people other than hitogoroshi and SerialClergyman at this point, no. Seeing what everyone else has to say about them is satisfying at this point and I'm most interested in seeing, among other things most easily accomplished by talking to them in particular, if there's some reason that I should stop suspecting them.

A more concise answer to the question about whether we should feel constrained in our lynch by the current claims that have been made is no. We should today lynch whoever we feel has the greatest chance of being scum and the claims are secondary.

@SerialClergyman, you asked if anyone thought Ojanen was obviously a mason at one point but then didn't seem to put out when no one answered. After that you said that Ojanen wasn't obviously a mason to you and went on to give likely reasons for her death other than mason hunting. Without asking for names at all did you think that there were obvious masons at the end of the day yesterday (I didn't, though Ojanen would have been high on my list of guesses if I were forced to make one)? Why wouldn't you think that scum with the extra information of the scum team weren't that likely to think that Ojanen was an obvious mason (which seems to be your implication)?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[SerialClergyman]

You suck, Sam.

Can't talk more now, at work. Zorblag making me itch.

[SerialClergyman]

Err, you suck *Sando... Sorry.

My point was a had a go at providing specifics and you seem to have missed it. It's up to you how convincing you found it, but it's unfair to say I've been totally vague.

Having said THAT, a lot of my thinking IS vague at the moment, and I'm a bit like that, so sorry.

I do think that after the flip today it is going to be worth looking at what's happened today and using that to try to figure out who had the most to gain but I'm not interested in holding off on what I think the best lynches are because I'm worried that lynching one of them and having the come up town is likely to lead to the mislynch of the other.

This sentence in particular made me itch. It feels like he knows there will be a town flip. It doesn't look like someone who believes that hito and I are scum fabricating this play. Mmm. Plus saying lynches rather than lynch..

Zorblag, I sometimes miss your questions because I have no idea why you're asking them, I can't see how they'd be relevent. So apologies for not answering it, but maybe a little context or even some stressing of their importnace might help.

I think the best time for a no lynch is right now, if we wanted one. It'd give me a better idea on working out who is scum, wouldn't have any greater chance of hitting town etc etc. If you went into tomorrow with say, me lynched then hito NKed, you could try a no lynch then, sure. In fact, given the fact that hito and I are unlikely to be NKed (this should be uncontroversial whether you think we're scum or town) it'd actually be very similar to no lynching today, but doing it today means hito and I will get to express our views on the subject.

I'll summarise my goals for the day.

1) Find scum and lynch them.
2) Lynch someone who I don't think is town.
3) Ensure that if hito or I are lynched, the one who survives is considered very likely town.

Now, that's obviously from ideal to achieveable. I think that 3) should be very achievable, and the question of who survives doesn't really matter. Even if my ego was large enough to think you'd need me in the end game, I'm sure that if we establish 3) then whoever out of hito or me isn't lynched will be NKed. Even this is definietly an improvement on what happened before hito reversed his opinion on me and made his gutsy move, so he deserves the credit. But it's my responsibility to make it happen. To make it happen, I need to know which of the two of us are more likely to be viewed as town if the other flips. At the moment, I think that hito being town doesn'tn ecessarily confirm me, but me flipping town certainly closely suggests hito is for all the reasons I gave Sando above (why not just have me killed? Why risk getting crushed when he could put me to death and get his team into lylo?)

This is particularly why I was disappointed at DDD's vote, because hito's death is a bad result, and votes on him are bad.

Now, as to goals 1) and 2) - 1) is very difficult. You are all great players and just becaue Ih ad a wakeup call from hito doesn't mean I can solve the game.

So not being able to work out scum easily, we can look at goal 2), but even that is risky. If we lynch Baltar and he's town, that's essentially a loss for us because I know I'll be next. So even 2) isn't much different to 3), provided I can get 3) up. If we all agree to view hito as town on an SC town flip, then we have to make the same lynch as we would if 2) happened, albeit with hito and I dead rather than alive.

Ok, I gotta go, I'll try to post more later.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Hey DDD, same question that's been permeating (in various forms) to the others - what would my townflip make you think about SC, and what would an SC townflip make you think about me?

Town flips of one don't really tell me much about the other; they strike me as rather independent events. My vote on you is not a product of my belief in SC's towniness or scuminess but is a product of my belief in you being scum.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Please (VPB and DDD) explain your thoughts on hito 998 being scummy and contrived.

It doesn't look to me like an organic opinion that Hito naturally came to; it instead reads me to me as a manufactured case as a reason to change votes. The facts he referenced were on the board for a while and I'm just not seeing the dramatic catalyst for his post and pivot.

His statement such as, "This is more or less a death sentence for me." really bother me because it's basically a call for people to lynch him for such a statement or completely get off his wagon. I guess it makes most sense for me as scum backed up in a corner where he's lynched quickly and left a mess on the table for the last days or he gets his wagoned as derailed. As town I don't think I'd ever cut such a bargain because I always think I can shift votes off me; the truth is a powerful thing.

Then he pads out his case with pointless game theory filler and ends with, "As I said, there's a chance I just lost us the game by setting up the town for an Albert mislynch, but I think the fact that I have no anxiety, no worry about this possibility is the single best response I can give to the question 'how sure are you that Albert is scum?'" which doesn't fill me with any confidence. I can sympathize with SC being a bit "lost", but Hito's confidence doesn't really make sense to me as town.

[Sando]

You suck, Sam.

Can't talk more now, at work. Zorblag making me itch.

That's

your specifics?!

Calling DDD and Hito town, and me a probable, and any of the other 4 could be scum, but most probably VPB (never mind the fact that there is 2 scum). Convincing.

A HUGE part of yours and Hito's argument today has been that scum are setting up a double-mislynch. You're the ones seeing it happening, how about showing specifics to it, rather than 'well they nodded and smiled along with it'. Show how the scum are being disingenuous etc.

[VP Baltar]

How do you get lost = scum? The whole purpose of scum is that they ahve the information that the majority doesn't. That doesn't equal lost...

What? That doesn't even make sense. How does knowing who your scum buddy is help you fake your scumhunting unless you're bussing? I think all you'd have to do is think back to my play in /invitational 4 to see what scum at a loss looks like. It's a bitch when half the town starts agreeing they they are town and you're forced to try and convince them they aren't. I stand by my statement, you are scum at a loss for direction.

While this could be a high level bus, I severely doubt it, and I think Albert's quick switch to SC-is-scum is probably proof enough they aren't scumbuddies.

I don't see how that switch makes you believe they couldn't be scum buddies. I fully see ABR as the type of player to bus his buddies at the first sign of trouble.

So where the hell am I getting my town read? I don't know, and perhaps we should just ignore it. Maybe it's because I'm more inclined to look for scum among those who expressed a 'lynch both' sentiment prior to 998 and are now expressing a 'lynch one, then everything I think is a mystery stop asking' (hi albert, hi vpb). I'm calling it because it's there, but I can't think of why except that perhaps I see the most sincerity is his attacks and less of the 'no real preference between the two' that's permeated the thread.

I just find it really weird that you've done a massive 180 on him today over seemingly nothing. I mean, sincerity in his attacks doesn't really jive with me in terms of him going from one of your top scum reads yesterday to a town read today.

I think the best time for a no lynch is right now, if we wanted one.

This is a really dumb idea.

It doesn't look to me like an organic opinion that Hito naturally came to; it instead reads me to me as a manufactured case as a reason to change votes. The facts he referenced were on the board for a while and I'm just not seeing the dramatic catalyst for his post and pivot.

Well, clearly the catalyst was his wagon getting serious. Then there was suddenly a scumspiracy against he and SC.


DDD, I really think SC is a superior lynch today. There is still a chance that hito is misguided and panicking town. SC, however, is pretty clearly scum.

[Head_Honcho]

Votecount:

SerialClergyman(3): Sando, Albert B. Rampage, VP Baltar
hitogoroshi(2): Zorblag, Debonair Danny DiPietro
Albert B. Rampage(1): hitogoroshi
VP Baltar(2): Vi, SerialClergyman

With 8 alive it's 5 to lynch.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

DDD, I really think SC is a superior lynch today. There is still a chance that hito is misguided and panicking town. SC, however, is pretty clearly scum.

Yeah, really not seeing SC as scummier than Hito.

[Albert B. Rampage]

We are definitely lynching SC today, whether by deadeline or majority.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

We are definitely lynching SC today, whether by

deadline

or majority.

Lol.

[Vi]

SerialClergyman, who are you in favor of lynching today?

VP Baltar - I took a look through xRx's scum meta and I don't see the xRECKLESSx bussing you do outside Perfectionist Mafia, which was just one of four games.
And without that, the worthwhile points you've raised vs. hito go down to a change in opinion on Sando, which is minor IMO.
Why are you still trying to frame hito as scum?

I don't buy the arguments against Albert B. Rampage or VP Baltar.

Why not?
Why are you (still) voting hito over anyone else?

I don't agree with DDD 1117. hito 998 reminded me very much of my first game onsite, where I was willing to pull out whatever stops I could to avoid being lynched (many of which just put me further down in the eyes of everyone else). Stuff like trying to fit together the big picture and bargaining to show that what's being proposed isn't worse than any other ideas isn't really unexpected.
What would hito-Town have posted instead?