Mini 914 ~ Mafia Reverberation (Game Over!)

[Herodotus]

NOTE: I hate long posts, but I'm catching up here. There will be a tl;dr in my next post.

Unincant: Spyrex, Incant: Rhinox

I think Juls was right the first time.

About Juls's vote on Spyrex: As my predecessor pointed out, it is a bit fishy for a doublevoter to suggest coordinating a masslynch, especially post 49. however, he revealed his ability to doublevote, so he can no longer use it to break the plan for the scumteam. I consider that a small town-tell for Spyrex.

The masspurge is a bad idea though, for several reasons:
1. The scum can probably daytalk, given the listing for a "Still, Small Voice" ability
2.

The scum win scorched earth.

This is important to remember.
3. The scum probably have the ability to make a kill.
4. The doublevoter ability, luxomancy, and maybe other abilities.

Even trying to get, say, 4 or more purges in one day may not be a good idea. The scum may find it worthwhile to mess with the incanting at that point. I suspect we won't be able to purge more than 1 scum on any given day.

However, I think we should try to get 2, or maybe 3, subjects purged each day to increase our chances of hitting scum and to remove suspicious townies. This will require planning and holding everyone accountable for using common sense.

It looks like the Moychandiser role is a cult recruiter

I don't think Moychandiser is a cult recruiter, because it doesn't appear to change the target's win condition. If someone receives a piece of Moychandise, then I think they should consider claiming that fact so that we know a Moychandiser exists.
I think we shouldn't worry about the reporter or Moychandiser for now. They may exist, but neither should impact anything right now. Note that *claims* don't trigger the reporter's wincon.

@MOD: In parsing the phrase "confirmed to exist in the game," do the abilities of (all) dead players count toward the reporter's wincon?

I know, I just said we shouldn't worry about it. But I want to know. It would make the reporter survivor-ish.

Good question. No, the role reveals do not count toward the Reporters' Win Conditions. ~Vi

Porkens-gate

LOL
I guess I'm old too.

I hope that doesn't make me THAT old... ~Vi

Jazzmyn, Spaceballs is awesome, as long as you've seen Star Wars IV (though it might contain spoilers for V and/or VI.) The zombies are references to a different (completed, I hope) game. The wizard stuff is, I think, just Spyrex having style.

To be quasi-fair it WAS in response to a prod as per the mod.

That doesn't change the fact that I wouldn't cry if we double string them up.

Did you mean VP and Zoraster? This seems like an out-of-nowhere comment.

Notes on people:

VP:
Have you ever been town?
You haven't posted many reads on people (though you aren't the only one.) Would you, please?

Porkens and Rhinox:
In this context (post 53), I don't find his playing the newbie card scummy. This game has some potentially complicated rules. Rhinox looks like he's throwing mud at Porkens. And later, at VP/Zoraster.

The Orbots:
I don't really agree that being a hydra makes you more vulnerable to attacks, but I don't find that line relevant to evaluating your alignment.

Sotty7:
Sorry, Serialclergyman and Spyrex, but I don't find Sotty's post 67 scummy at all. Serialclergyman, do you find "cautiousness" scummy? How strong a scumtell is it?
I don't like to see an unremovable vote on someone when there isn't much good reason to suspect them. But it doesn't mean that Spyrex is scum.
The Spy/Serial link bit is weak. There was no genuine pressure on Spyrex. But it looks like sincere scumhunting on Sotty's part. And her follow through gives me a town feeling.

Honestly guys, this case is making itself. The only reason I'm still typing is because I'm trying to break this keyboard before the warranty is due. There should be no need for any further action except incanting Sotty.

This paragraph makes me suspect Serial a little.

I'm going to give you an out. Will you admit now that your theory was a little bit reactionary, a little bit OMGUSy and in the cold light of day he probably wasn't under the sort of pressure you initially thought he was?

So does this paragraph. Yes, the theory was reactionary and OMGUSy, and Spyrex wasn't under pressure. If you're a townie, Serial, why are you making a bargain to get someone whom you suspect off your back? You should care more about finding out whether Sotty is scum or not, and purging her if she is. This paragraph only makes sense if you believe Sotty to be town and therefore you're worried about her believing you to be scum.

Jazzmyn 163 is not much of an attempt to respond to Jahudo calling her out for not scumhunting. I expect more.

O Great Wizard Spyrex, are you still on board the Sotty wagon out of choice or apathy?

I'd like you to answer the same question.

Its a little from column a, little from b. I'm not sold on the whole SC / Porkens are scummm business.

I think it was SC / Spy scummm.

I don't like Zoraster 177. I haven't made up my mind regarding the recent Zoraster/Nachomamma/Mighty Orbots issue. Zoraster doesn't look great in it, but he's not screaming scum either. I'd like Troll to comment on it when he can. I'm also a little burned out from this long reading/writing session.

[Herodotus]

tl;dr for the above post, with a brief comment on each player:

2-3 lynches would be good. More is dangerous.
Don't worry about 3rd party roles on day 1, but keep them in mind later.

Spyrex - mild townread. the attack on Sotty was probably pursuing a townie.
Sotty - medium townread.
Porkens - null. doesn't depend on Rhinox's alignment, either. if Rhinox is scum, his weak attack is just as likely to be bussing.
VP - null. needs to take more solid stances. is very good at pretending to be town.
Rhinox - mild scumread. seems to be throwing mud without much evaluation. also needs to take more solid stances.
Jahudo - null. calling out the lurkers is absolutely appropriate.
Orbots - null. calling out the lurkers is absolutely appropriate.
Zoraster - is in this game. undecided. needs to

stop lurking

continue with the not lurking.
SerialClergyman - mild scumread due to a couple of things that seem off.
Jazzmyn - null. fluffy. needs to take more solid stances.
Bloodcovenent - is NOT in this game.
Nachomamma8 - replacing BC. has posted once. I don't disagree with what he said in that post, but he didn't say much. null.

[Herodotus]

To clarify, to the people who "need to take more solid stances" -- Tell me who the scum are, and who the town are. You might have made some pokes at people, but if you're scum, that won't help us to find your buddies.

[Herodotus]

I think Juls was right the first time.

Really? I didn't understand her reasoning at all and I don't think she actually explained it well. I'd like you to elaborate.

I agree that her reasoning for stating that Rhinox was scum wasn't clear or helpful. But I think her incant on him was an incant for scum, while the incant on Spyrex wasn't. I gave my reasons for suspecting Rhinox.

I think Sotty and Jahudo (though I just read one of his scum games recently and he's quite tricksy) are probably town at this time. I think Spyrex's double voting business is very much null. Porkens and zoraster (my two votes this game) are my two earliest guesses for scum, but that's largely intuitive given how little both of them have said. I just mentioned MO. Other than that, things are largely still up in the air for me. Is there something or someone specific you wanted my opinion on that I haven't talked about?

That's more or less what I was looking for for now.

Cool with me. (and there is actually a valid reason)

I think this is the only thing you've said about suspecting Porkens so far. Are you ready to tell us the secret?

[Herodotus]

That's just silly. Rhinos are heribvores.

I don't think any of Porkens, zoraster, or VP has earned a defense from me so far. But if I was chainsawing for them, you'd be a poor choice of target. You're not seriously pursuing any of them, just making low-key comments -- which is what I find suspicious about you.

You want information, but seem to feel it can only be derived from wagon analysis. I think it can be derived from scum lists. I'll grant that information is incomplete before there are any flips. But saying "I support purging X and Y today" if we will be purging two people is approxiamately equally as useful as maintaining a vote for both X and Y. Yes, there's the potential that the person will fail to follow through and use their vote at the last minute to allow either X or Y to survive. But then we know the person is scum, probably along with the person they saved.

[Herodotus]

To answer Jahudo and Papa Orbot:

(Dark - Town) You win when all other factions have left the game and one person who shares this Win Condition is alive, or nothing can prevent the same.

(Light - Mafia) You win when all other factions have left the game, or nothing can prevent the same.

The town WC requires a townie to survive. The scum WC doesn't require a scum to survive. So if the scum can arrange that all players die, they win, even if they are dead themselves. ("scorched earth" is a term that means everyone is dead, or everything in an area is destroyed.)

Nacho and Jazzmyn, what do you think of Spyrex's lists?

but she's been pretty clear on SpyreX = town, SC = scum.

That's not how I understand what she's been saying. At the beginning, she thought Serial was trying to deflect attention away from you, his buddy. Since then she's "not sold on Spy being scum", which I interpret as indecision.

Jahudo makes a good point about Sotty being hypocritical there.

[Herodotus]

Jahudo makes a good point about Sotty being hypocritical about MO.

[Herodotus]

Rhinox may have a decent point about purging multiple people simultaneously. But I don't think that the advantages of single-purging outweigh allowing the scum one kill per purged person, assuming the scum can kill.
And as far as town PR's go, keep in mind that Vi is the mod. If there's a cop, the entire scumteam could be investigation-immune.

[Herodotus]

@Spyrex:

For the beginning of 231, I see what you quoted from Sotty as including two good questions that could open lines of scumhunting. If there's something suspicious in there, I don't see it.

For the stuff toward the end of 231, I was going to wait and see what happened "this weekend." The mysterious stranger has escaped most of my commenting, but not my attention.

[Herodotus]

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 69#2098469

ZOMG, thanks!

wtf?

[Herodotus]

I don't understand why [Spyrex] would absolutely not lynch MO, Porkens or SC today.

Ditto. I don't have a clear town read on any of them.

Porkens is moving in all directions. He became less active once people started scumhunting. I'm reading his posts in ISO, and the amount of time between 15 and 16 is just bizzare. He gives a reason why he might unincant Sotty, and suggests a completely different purging strategy, then moves to Rhinox in his next post without giving a reason... but they're 3.5 days apart. Then in 17, he wants to direct my vote and Rhinox's vote. Away from the person he and I are both voting (Rhinox.)
So, when I logged on, I was thinking about incanting Serial, since he's inactive and unhelpful. And VP's incantation made me like the idea even better, since two incantations is more pressure than one. But I feel like Porkens is at least as deserving of a vote from me here as Serial.

unincant, incant Porkens

VP seemed to be setting ground work to jump on my wagon promising a review. I was fully expecting him to incant me with the tone of his posts that lead up to that, but he doesn't. Instead choosing to stick by his initial read of my wagon. He gets a few townie points here simply because as scum he could have easily jumped on me if he wanted. I just got the feeling that he legit re-read my wagon to come to a conclusion. Scum would have a conclusion and then just re-read to find things that reinforce it.

I've seen VP, as scum in a different game, talk about a player being suspicious, then do a PBPA and declare a more townish read. (Though there wasn't a wagon on the player at the time, and he knew there was another scumgroup.) I agree with your conclusion about him right now. Somewhere in the middle, not seeming to be clearly town or scum.

[Herodotus]

VP should know better about my town meta, but I'll forgive him because he's pretty.

I don't think you are playing at all like you did in our last game together, in which you were town.

that whole "Prove to me that you might not be town, sucker!" discussion makes about no sense unless one was going to think that both Porkens AND I were scum together.

Um, what? Are you taking the line "fess up" in Porken's early vote seriously? Or the part where he asked you for an example of you "pulling a stunt" as scum? I think you're using wishful thinking if you see that as a town tell.

[Herodotus]

Rhinox, well:

So, when I logged on, I was thinking about incanting Serial, since he's inactive and unhelpful. And VP's incantation made me like the idea even better, since two incantations is more pressure than one. But I feel like Porkens is at least as deserving of a vote from me here as Serial.

Woosh.

I'm not Rhinox, but to restate more clearly:
Serial was being inactive (read: lurking) and unhelpful. (I don't remember exactly what I meant by "unhelpful", but it was mostly that he hadn't said much in his previous few posts that looked to me like it would help find the scum.)
When I logged in, I was planning to incant him, partly for pressure.
I saw VP's incantation, and thought, "good, now when I incant SC, there will be even more pressure than if I was the only one."
But I read Jazzmyn's comments on Porkens and her response about Spyrex's townlist. That made me decide to reread Porkens.
Rereading Porkens made me realize how bizzare his play has been throughout the game.

[Herodotus]

@Mighty Orbots - can we expect Zorblag to post?

@Serial - would you support purging Porkens today?

[Herodotus]

Here's a paraphrase of his last post (Jan 28th) in our QT

You admit to having a QT? SCUM SLIP!!!11!!

Troll honestly does seem to be busy with RL. I don't care so much about his absence at this time.

I get that. It's not that I think one half of a hydra lurking is scummy, it's just that I value his analytical abilities.

I (still) think the wagon on Sotty is weak, but I'm confounded by the players voting her. SC and Spy seem to be tunneling hard on the basis of things I don't think suggest a scum alignment. If either SC or Spyrex is town, and Sotty is too, I demand at least the right to say "I told you so" in the postgame.
I'm tempted to analyze her wagon (and those not on it) in more depth, but if she ends up purged, it might be better to wait until we've seen her flip.

[Herodotus]

This sounds like you'd already be willing to purge SC/Spy if Sotty flipped town, but that you also wouldn't terribly mind seeing Sotty purge if it helps you decide on SC/Spy. Is that accurate?

No, it would be more accurate to say:

I'm tempted to analyze her wagon (and those not on it) in more depth, but if she ends up purged, it might be better to wait until we've seen her flip.

In other words, there is stuff on which to comment, but doing so now, using major "if" statements, might help the scum more than it helps the town.

I said earlier that if a player discovers the existence of moychandise, they should claim that fact so the town knows what to expect. Well, although I'm less certain now about claiming being helpful, I'm not going to make a liar of myself. I've learned that moychandise exists in the game. As I said earlier, the moychandise stuff is

not

a cult. It does not change the recipient's win condition.

I don't think there is much point in trying to hunt for the moychandiser (I'm assuming that the ability to give moychandise = player with the Moychandiser win condition.) All that happens if they win is that they disappear from the game. Their flip won't tell us anything. And in order to survive, they need to keep up the appearance that they are scumhunting lest they be lynched as scum. So they can't afford to not be helpful.

Also, I'm not sure that anyone should claim to have moychandise.

I also haven't used it yet because my double vote is a one off thing. Once I place it, I can't move it and it is gone once a purge is reached. It's like a one shot.

I don't think you should have said that.

[Herodotus]

@Mod - could we get prods for Jazzmyn and Nikanor?

SpyreX is full of vinegar and secrets.

Maybe secrets, but... vinegar?

I don't think I've ever played with SC before. Do you happen to have a link available? (It would be easier than trawling through Google searching since the profile search function here is presently disabled).

Sorry, didn't notice your request sooner. SC has already linked to it, but I was referring to http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=12257 .

[Herodotus]

Nikanor, since you mentioned it, I'm looking over your posts from Picking Simplicity in ISO. Can you tell me just briefly what this referred to:

Nikanor - again, can someone tell me if this is his usual behavior, regardless of alignment? Gut town read.

No, I'm usually not like this. This is really the first game in which I've tried this particular playstyle.

[Herodotus]

I do agree with what Nik says. Jazz exploded with posts and then vanished again. Rhinox, well.

I think there was a little more to Nikanor's comment than Jazz posting then disappearing.
But both of his incantations were decent choices.

Incant: Rhinox

I'm not sure whether Spy's "incantum lazium" counts as moving his incantation, but either way, this isn't a hammer.

[Herodotus]

I have no idea what you two are talking about, but post 2 was last edited during pregame, in case that matters.

[Herodotus]

I haven't felt too inspired in any particular direction, beyond still liking the Rhinox wagon.

I like Nikanor's contribution so far, but I don't like the idea that he might not have finished reading the thread up to this point. Especially if he's complaining about a lack of activity, since, well, there's activity that he skipped over.

I've been thinking about the masspurge that we discussed earlier. There are several people who I'm pretty confident are not scum, and I feel that setting ourselves up to purge all but a handful of townies would force the scum to scramble to avoid having all their members purged.

I don't want to purge zoraster for lurking/being inactive. But I do want to purge zoraster.

@Mod: Did you know zoraster went on V/LA?

This has me losing interest in a day 1 zoraster purge.

Explain. If your reasons for wanting to purge him were not based on his inactivity, then why does his having an excuse for his inactivity make you lose interest in purging him?
Also, is VP scum?

[Herodotus]

Jahudo 397 makes no sense to me for three reasons:

I never supported a massclaim.
SC 394 doesn't really drop the idea of a massclaim.
As far as I can tell, a massclaim doesn't help a hypothetical reporter very much. It would just guide them in using an investigative ability, if they have one.

On an unrelated note,

Also, is VP scum?

[Herodotus]

I never supported a massclaim.

I never said you supported it, just that you suggested an idea.

I don't think you read my post very carefully. I wasn't talking about anyone claiming.

According to the role PM, one way of checking a role of their hypothetical list is by mod confirmation. So a flip. Your suggestion sounds like the best strategy for a theoretical reporter:

@MOD: In parsing the phrase "confirmed to exist in the game," do the abilities of (all) dead players count toward the reporter's wincon?

I know, I just said we shouldn't worry about it. But I want to know. It would make the reporter survivor-ish.

Good question. No, the role reveals do not count toward the Reporters' Win Conditions. ~Vi

In fact, a masspurge wouldn't help a reporter, other than the possibility that the scum might go all out in using abilities to keep themselves alive.

[Herodotus]

Incant: SerialClergyman

Someone should get off Rhinox too for the moment since he'll be purged tomorrow if you don't. I want to hear from Gammagooey.

I wouldn't mind if he did get purged. But I'm quite confident I'll be able to log in again tomorrow before the time of day that the Mod has been increasing the intensity. I'll leave my vote on him.

Scum team is MO-SC-Gammagooey. You heard it here first.

You didn't revote?

[Herodotus]

You didn't revote?

oops, never mind. thought you were using a placeholder vote.

[Herodotus]

Eh, okay.

Unincant, Incant: VPB

But I'd strongly prefer we carried out the purge tomorrow rather than waiting until the next threshold decrease.

[Herodotus]

No intention right now of incanting someone else tomorrow, that's correct.

[Herodotus]

Unincant, Incant: Rhinox

Let's just hammer Rhino.

Suppose we have Rhinoscum and MOtown at P-1. Rhino hammers MO. It's strong evidence against Rhino, but "strong evidence against him" isn't as bad as "has already died and flipped scum". The equivalent happens for Rhinotown and MOscum. And the same applies for SC.

So. Let's just hammer Rhino.

[Herodotus]

Alright, I'll confirm that I was handed moychandise.

Rhinox, do you have any more to say about why you chose me?

[Herodotus]

He's mafia who's taking advantage of Herod's claim of recieving an item for a convincing fakeclaim with very little risk of being cced, given that if the actual moychandaiser claims he's (he being the actual moychandaiser) probably screwed. Possible solution-ask that his next merchandise thing be given to a small pool of one of 2-3 people. If they don't get one and someone else does, LYANCH.

I didn't actually say, earlier, that I'd received merchandise, I just said I knew it existed. I wanted to leave it ambiguous whether I'd gotten something, or I'd investigated someone else who had it. But I suppose one could figure the first was much more likely.
I don't see much point in the test you describe. Whether he's mafia, merchandiser, or town, he could give the merchandise to someone among those 2-3 people.

[Herodotus]

Oh, sorry Gammagooey. I just figured out what you meant.
But I don't think it's likely that he's lying about being the one who handed the merchandise to me.

[Herodotus]

Happy birthday SpyreX.

WTF did you just do?

And why did you do it to Sotty7?

I am puzzled by the bolded, which was a response to Spyrex making a doublevote.
But I also don't think you'd claim to have the doublevote ability if you didn't have it.

[Herodotus]

never to save myself just to get lynched the next day.

Right. the self-preservation SC and MO mention just means you'd probably be solo purged the next day. The only exception to the rule that I can think of is PULO (PUrge Or Lose,) but depending on the number and distribution of doublevoters, we don't know when that would be.

I'm seeing Gammagooey as townish right now. And I think the doublevoter claims are minor towntells.

I'm not sure about Rhinox being suspicious of me, but his story is pretty consistent with his claim.
I would be very surprised if there exists a moychandiser who doesn't have the marketing ability, but someone with the marketing ability who isn't a moychandiser is possible. If you're scum, you probably saw me as the best test subject to see whether that piece of merchandise had bad effects, before you passed it on to your buddies. If you're town, you wanted to see whether I'd claim it like I suggested others should. If it grants a townie a useful ability, even better. And why not use it? As long as most everyone alive doesn't have merchandise, the merchandiser WinCon isn't much of a consideration.
There could definitely be another player with the marketing ability.

I'd like to see what Jazzmyn and VP Baltar think. I'm seriously considering sparing Rhinox today.

[Herodotus]

I'm here. I haven't caught up. Do I need to move my vote? Is there a good reason for the wagon on sotty?

[Herodotus]

VP's a double voter too??? This is rediculous.

[Herodotus]

VP is scum? Or lyncher?

I can believe that.

[Herodotus]

VP is scum? Or lyncher?

I can believe that.

Someone's gotta play like they got a pair.

I haven't read pg 22-25.

[Herodotus]

Ah, I see. I thought VP was *preventing* two of the purges.

[Herodotus]

And needless to say if for whatever wild wacky action bike reason we have a 4 scum group that has a solid chance to be game.

No, with town doublevoters, it's still possible to lynch scum in the scenario you describe.

@MO: I'm guessing that the scum's kill is the biggest remaining action. I'd rather they not have any extra info, even if it's just a little.

[Herodotus]

...ugh it's late. that made no sense. I can double vote once in an incantation. I can do this twice before I become vanilla. Therefore, I have one double vote left for the remainder of this game.

Why did you make a full role claim during twilight? That doesn't seem very helpful.

[Herodotus]

I'd prefer that I could wait and say this during the next incantation, but I could be dead then. The next best thing is to post it as late as possible so it might be too late for the scum to change their actions. Sadly, I'll be out for the next few hours for the same reason I was out during the last 2-3 hours before the purge.

I believe that VPB is lying. I think that's all I will say for now.

[Herodotus]

Hmph. I'm back. I should have waited to make post 728. I'll wait until the next incantation to go into what I was talking about.

[Herodotus]

Haaaay

[Herodotus]

Well done, town!

As far as the summoning issue is concerned, Gammagooey had it pretty much right. Juls had chosen Rhinox and VP for destiny bond. Since she suspected Rhinox, she gave VP summon. (The other choices were Antihero (investigation immunity) and Echoing Voice.)
VP, I'm sorry if you think it was stupid to contradict your statements about your role. But I had a reason to believe that you had made a fakeclaim -- I even double checked that your statement was meant as a full claim. The site meta tends to be that fakeclaims are scummy.

I also suspected that your avatar might have been a character from spaceballs, like my Yogurt one.

[Herodotus]

Sorry to have gone so overboard with the questions when I was trying to figure out what it was that SpyreX had wrong about his understanding of how his ability worked.

I was thinking that perhaps the doublevotes could be PM'ed to the mod, and the player who made them wouldn't be revealed. But since they were showing up in the player's vote color...

[Herodotus]

When I put in the potential to multilynch, I didn't really expect almost half the player list to die at once, and certainly not two scum. Oh well~
...
This was to contrast with Percy's incarnation of the game when the D1 lynch got >7 votes.

I think this is a matter of the players. Some of us love lynching, and most of us figure a multiple lynch is in the town's best interests.

And what was I supposed to do with Echoing Voice? It seemed pointless to me to the point that I wouldn't have claimed it if pressed to.
Maybe if it didn't count as an action I would have had some fun with it.

"Hi, I'm a Tracker. You don't know me, but I saw ___ target the person who just died. Check it out!"

An investigation result might not be trusted when someone isn't willing to take the blame if it misleads the town.

[Herodotus]

D1 I wasn't supposed to get lynched. I was stalking the thread and trying to count votes to find out when I could place a hammer vote and prevent a triple purge (one of which being me). I could have had a chance at playing it off as me being against a triple purge as I stated all game. Maybe it gets me killed the next day, or maybe I vote sotty to purge her, she decides to kill SC instead of MO, and MO continues bussing me the next day and doesn't get vigged the next night.

I suspect Sotty would have vigged you in that scenario... though if you'd redirected from yourself, you could have taken out another townie before being purged.

Oh, and sorry about the avatar change. lol. Never occured to me that would be an issue!

You had no reason to think it might. I was the only one who had information about the merchandise/avatar connection, and it made me too sensitive in looking at avatars.

Notice: Anyone who doublevoted on the day of an NK was confirmed to NOT be the person who made that kill.

What if multitasker had allowed a player to use the factional kill along with their (A) abilities? Until I looked at multitasker more carefully, I assumed Rhinox had performed the kill. In that case, Jazzmyn could have really tracked a player.