Open 189~Trouble@Warren State Mental Hosp (Over)

[Sotty7]

I'm starting to think Tubby is staying quiet on the NK question as his way not to swing things one way or another. I'm not sure if he is posting elsewhere on the site, but I would have expected an answer by now.

With that in mind I am going to look though the game this afternoon and hopefully drop my vote once I am done.

[tubby216]

I have completed my ISOs on Sotty/Qooq and Vi and though I did not take notes during my review...my sense (I know that is not a good reason for others to grasp) tells me she is town. Despite the fact she has been mafia and fooled me everytime [1] we have played.

Who is she? Sotty?

Still waiting on that response tubby.

I am not really sure i should answer this untill after endgame. I know its important but I feel its game breaking, please alow me sometime to consult other mods who are not in this game for final ruling thanks

see above

[VP Baltar]

I really don't think it's game breaking and actually should be something included in an open setup, either via the rules or the roles. Opens mean full disclosure.

[tubby216]

I really don't think it's game breaking and actually should be something included in an open setup, either via the rules or the roles. Opens mean full disclosure.

OK look everyone, re-read page one fully the answer you seek is there.

[Vi]

I'm sorry, tubby, but it's only game-breaking in one case.

[VP Baltar]

fitz, is your NK randomized if you don't submit it?

[Vi]

fitz, is your NK randomized if you don't submit it?

Hey wife-beater, you should really stop sometime.

[VP Baltar]

Why I oughta.....

One of these days, Alice. Straight to the moon.

[VP Baltar]

So anyway, what do people think the odds are that mafia kills would the only compulsive night actions?

[VP Baltar]

*would be the only...blah blah blah

[Sotty7]

I kinda, sorta fell asleep when I was supposed to be reading the game this afternoon.... So vote will be delayed a little while. Have done some reading though and spotted this

Hyl - Nothing to see. Nothing particularly damning, nothing Town,

voting VP Baltar for reasons I don't agree with,

and a lot of generally hanging out without adding much.

Not the typical way of starting the game, although I expected something like this happening with someone.

Hai!

Daamo's answers are meh, not remarkably scummy or townie.

Which leans toward scummy in itself.

I like Hyl's post/vote, and not just because it's on our favorite perennial scum candidate.

These quotes don't mesh well. Vi...?

VP, what are you doing? Re-reading? Waiting for more votes/discussion/posts... What?

[Sotty7]

So anyway, what do people think the odds are that mafia kills would the only compulsive night actions?

I'm not sure I buy a NK as compulsive. There is always the option of a no kill. So I'm saying slim.

[VP Baltar]

VP, what are you doing? Re-reading? Waiting for more votes/discussion/posts... What?

Mostly I want to hear what you guys have to say today. I realize there stands a possibility that I was bussing HR, but in a setup like this I think that is beyond idiotic. Therefore, as what I would consider as close to a confirmed town as possible at this point, I'm more interested in hearing arguments being put forth by you guys before we get into the real meat and potatoes and I start stamping my feet like a child. That way I can observe who I think is genuinely scumhunting and who I think is just trying to get a mislynch.

On an unrelated note, there is a possibility for a no lynch today. Thoughts from everyone?

[Sotty7]

I did think about a no lynch but I figured that I would just be in the same position tomorrow as I am today. Having to chose between Vi/Fitz with you (VP) being the likely NK.

Unless of course we have some unclaimed power then a no lynch could be game breaking. But with three PRs already dead I don't like the odds of that being the case.

[Vi]

Hyl - Nothing to see. Nothing particularly damning, nothing Town,

voting VP Baltar for reasons I don't agree with,

and a lot of generally hanging out without adding much.

I like Hyl's post/vote, and not just because it's on our favorite perennial scum candidate.

These quotes don't mesh well. Vi...?

Well, first thing: I was working in isolation during 885. Being called scummy for asking too many questions is a favorite nontell pushed on me, so my first reaction was to deny it and move on.
Looking at the vote and the surrounding circumstances again, I can sort of understand where VP Baltar-Town may have been coming from with questioning everyone without saying much himself, but at the same time I do feel that it was a bit much at the time. (In other words, the quote from 885 was a mistake. >.> )
Rereading some more, I'm starting to have a bad feeling about VPB's early-game play - especially since tubby's nonresponse doesn't validate my earlier theory and VP Baltar is ringing lots of proverbial alarm bells Today. Give me a little time to look into this, although what with V/LA I may not be able to post my results until the end of the weekend.

No Lynch is a bad idea by all accounts. All we'll get is the least controversial Townie killed (and we all have one "least controversial Townie" in mind, and for three of us it's not VP Baltar), a more unstable endgame (with 3 to lynch, votes can be cast more freely and a unanimous opinion is necessary to lynch), and a more "rigged" mislynch opportunity Tomorrow; while losing a mature fourth Town-driven opinion. With my recent concern that I may not have found scum, though, I'd like to pursue a different kind of No Lynch.

Unvote: havingfitz

[havingfitz]

Sorry I did not get a chance to post in here again yesterday.

Here are my catching up comments....some in bold within quotes and some directly following quotes:

My read on you left me feeling you could be scum. I said I was going to take another look at you. If/when I vote for you I will provide reasons

Or you can provide them now. So far you've said I'm your top suspect (multiple times, multiple ways), but not why.

Gut. And while I have been leaning towards you the most...it is by no means a clear margin as I am still undecided between you and VP.

As for not laying down a 'safe' vote at the moment...my suspicions are not as strong towards you or VP as they were towards RC.

Why not?

RC's limited amount of play in the game was very anti-town IMO. In hindsight I should have been more patient than I was with my vote, but he had provided absolutely no content of any value. Additionally...as having just entered the game...I put too much value in the opinion of the others who suspected him.

The last sentence was made jokingly and I do not see myself voting for Sotty as I think she is town

(or at least the least scummy of the three of you)

You did it again.

Not sure what you are acusing me of doing again. if you have a problem with the way I am voicing my suspect rankings I don't know what to tell you. It's not difficult. I get the least scum vibe from Sotty (though I obviously can not write her off as confirmed town) and you and VP give me a stronger scum vibe. Though I am having a very hard time deciding which of you I feel is scummier.

Without our input - which I'm grateful for your cooperation on, btw

"your" here refers to VP/Sotty, sorry
A 30-page game isn't that long, especially when most of it is whining.

To each his own...at his own pace

**********************************************************************

fitz, is your NK randomized if you don't submit it?

Huh? VT don't have any ni......waaaaait a minute....

Are you trying to insinuate that I hav.....that I'm ma...you're trying to trick me! Aren't you!

Good one. But I'm VT.

I realize there stands a possibility that I was bussing HR, but in a setup like this I think that is beyond idiotic.

And I think it is not unreasonable for wiley scum to use this a gambit to color themself townie.

Therefore, as what I would consider as close to a confirmed town as possible at this point, I'm more interested in hearing arguments being put forth by you guys before we get into the real meat and potatoes and I start stamping my feet like a child.

So because you bussed your partner so heavily from the start...that confirms you as town? That's great...I'll have to use that sometime. You obviously think that your bussing is more confirmation of you being town that BC's absence during N3 actions. That works out well for you.

On an unrelated note, there is a possibility for a no lynch today. Thoughts from everyone?

I don't think this would get us anywhere as all it would most likely accomplish is all four of us trying to figure out who to lynch on D5.

**********************************************************************

OK...enough for the responses. I have re-read the game again and I still can not decide who I think is scummier...VP or Vi.

I think Vi has done more scumhunting...asked more questions and tried to give weight to her (I assume Vi is a her at least) actions. In a VC analysis I did her voting habits were very similar to VPs...and in fact, on more than one occassion they seemed to follow each other quite closely in making the same votes. Iirc correctly...almost always the VP vote followed by Vi's. I really thought Vi's case in her lone wall post against me was a lot of reaching (a HR proxy NK action????????) with the goal of bring my role back under consideration despite the whole BC was gone so he must be town scenario...which funny enough she proposed.

VP bussed HR from very early on..so he has to be town (or not)...though I did not see much reasoning provided for his intial HR. Need to go back again and see how that voting played out. I did not see VP providing as much content with his votes as Vi did.

Both Vi and VP were very active moving their votes around and they really have played a very close game to each other. Vi..it should be noted also had HR in her radar for much of the game as well. Though not to the extent VP did...so that must make her slightly less townish (or not).

I really don't know who between VP and Vi I want to place my vote on. I'm going to look over the game some more and will try to decide on which direction I want to go.

Though I would would not expect any of the remaining three of you to make it too easy to spot scum...and you aren't (for me at least).

[Vi]

Some notes as I peruse VP Baltar:

*No scum were on the initial Xdaamno wagon until HowardRoark joined in 96. {Cayke, Vi, Izzy, JDodge, HR}
**The Xdaamno wagon was announced well in advance of the game beginning, so scum saw it coming and could plan around it.
**Both HowardRoark and VP Baltar dodged the wagon, instead asking other people about it.
**Because there were no scum on the Xdaamno wagon until the end of Page 4, there was no chance that HowardRoark (and if applicable VPB) was going to target his scumpartner by questioning the wagon before then.
**(107) VP Baltar explained that by staying off the wagon and questioning around he could pick up who was reacting scummily about it. But he never mentioned his results - who he determined was actually acting scummily in relation to the Xd wagon! Even more interesting, by this time HowardRoark had jumped onto the tail end of the Xdaamno wagon (L-2) with this reasoning:

Xdaamno's post 60, post 77 & post 78.

considering VP Baltar had just gotten done saying that the Xd wagon was unlikely to hit scum. Why wasn't that mentioned?

*VP Baltar's question in 81 inviting the people who had not posted yet to talk about the Xdaamno wagon was functionally useless. (Think about it.)
*I'm not sure what the purpose of VP Baltar's questions to Xd on Page 3 was.

*JDodge pointed out an apparent contradiction here:

I’m reading Vi town right now though, if it means anything.

Really? Why's that? I don't think many people could get confident reads by page 4.

If you play with another player often enough, it sometimes becomes that easy,

Well, you're scum, so I think you have an unfair advantage at the town reads game.

The (unstated) reason for VP Baltar's vote was that HowardRoark didn't know that Qooq and me have never played together before, and was arguing against VP Baltar questioning Qooq's Town read on me by bringing up a possible meta between us from past experience.
But... that's not necessarily scummy, or at least not to the point of warranting a vote over Qooq. (If anything it would imply that Qooq (Sotty7) and HR are scum together.) Yet that was AFAIK the only time VP Baltar suggested that Qooq could be scum, but HowardRoark never left VPB's scumdar. I would suggest that this is early-game distancing.
*See also previous point about HR jumping onto the Xd wagon (L-2) when VP Baltar already said he didn't think HR was scum.

*(101) VP Baltar says he would never call someone Town on Page 4. From what I know of VP Baltar, I don't believe it (or at least I don't believe he would make such a sweeping statement).

*(121, 129) Izzy calls VP Baltar on a "slip". I'm not sure if the slip is any good, but notice that the only one questioning it is HowardRoark-scum. Twice.

---

I don't have time to go over the rest right now (the next thing I would do is question why VP Baltar went back to HowardRoark in particular after Otto claimed) so I need to fast-forward to what piqued my interest in the first place.

The major difference between Sotty and VP Baltar today is proactivity. Compare for instance Sotty7 858 - where she states clearly what her reads are and asks the mod about the pressing question of the Day - with anything VP Baltar has done today, which has mostly been chilling out asking for/letting people do work for him - in

every post

. If you really think 880 was made by someone who's interested in finding scum, you're off your rocking chair.

In addition, I'm concerned about this.

Unless, of course, the NK was randomized, in which case we'll speedlynch you and insta-win.

There's no way in heck the Cop kill was randomized.

VP Baltar's primary defense - and only piece of content today - has been that he couldn't possibly have been bussing HowardRoark throughout the game. But if you look, all of us voted HowardRoark at some point, and frankly everyone but me was on the HR wagon D2 without apology. So (from my point of view at least) someone

was

definitely bussing. My initial impulse was to accuse Sotty7 - and I did D4 - but after rereading I decided against it because of her continued effort to get him lynched D2. So then I looked at fitz, and the case is actually pretty nice, but if fitz is cleared by NKs - which realistically looks like the case given tubby's answer - then so much for that. Now I'm looking at VP Baltar, and see above.

---

And with that I place my life in your hands until Sunday.

Vote: VP Baltar

(L-2)

[VP Baltar]

I'm not sure I buy a NK as compulsive. There is always the option of a no kill. So I'm saying slim.

Yeah, which gives fitz a free pass and narrows the pool.

Good one. But I'm VT.

lol, can't blame me for checking!

So because you bussed your partner so heavily from the start...that confirms you as town? That's great...I'll have to use that sometime. You obviously think that your bussing is more confirmation of you being town that BC's absence during N3 actions. That works out well for you.

Well, look at it from my perspective, I attacked Howard from VERY early in the game and never gave him breathing room for his repeatedly scummy non-answers to the points I was raising. The evidence is right there in the thread for anyone to look at. At no time was I giving him the typical scummy exits, nor was I letting his BS replies pass as acceptable (unlike, say, Vi). Now, of course there does stand the chance of this being a hard bus, but let me ask you how much motivation I would have as scum to try and lynch my only partner on Day 1 of a setup that could contain (and did) multiple doctors and cops? Apart from my own scum tendencies that I don't like to bus my partners unless I have to, the idea you are proposing is basically begging to lose the game. I hope you give me a bit more credit than that.

VP bussed HR from very early on..so he has to be town (or not)...though I did not see much reasoning provided for his intial HR. Need to go back again and see how that voting played out. I did not see VP providing as much content with his votes as Vi did.

Well, my initial vote was well within the early game and mostly meant as pressure to judge his reaction, so there wasn't a lot of reasoning behind it to start. However, as I continued to ask him questions throughout the game he was either massively lurking or giving very poor answers, imo. I was also repeatedly banging the drum for his lynch and his ignoring me entirely screamed scum to me. Had he been town in that situation, I would have expected at least a little bit of "what you talking 'bout willis?" from him.

Additionally, words =/= pro-town. I think looking at intent and sincerity in voting is much more important than who is posting the biggest walls.

*No scum were on the initial Xdaamno wagon until HowardRoark joined in 96. {Cayke, Vi, Izzy, JDodge, HR}
**The Xdaamno wagon was announced well in advance of the game beginning, so scum saw it coming and could plan around it.

*Except for you?
**I announced the Xdaamno wagon, so if you're calling me scum how did I plan around it? Unless of course you're suggesting I had mind conrol over the entirity of the early game and was able execute some weird master plan.

**Both HowardRoark and VP Baltar dodged the wagon, instead asking other people about it.

Again, I initiated the attacks. My purpose was precisely to see 1)Xdaamno's reaction and 2) the reaction's of others to the wagon. Once it quickly turned into a fail wagon of false pressure (mostly fueled by you), I felt no need to add further to it.

I fail to see how I "dodged" the wagon when I was questioning Xd in the early stages of it. Did you not see those posts (hint: later on in the post you say you did)?

**(107) VP Baltar explained that by staying off the wagon and questioning around he could pick up who was reacting scummily about it. But he never mentioned his results - who he determined was actually acting scummily in relation to the Xd wagon! Even more interesting, by this time HowardRoark had jumped onto the tail end of the Xdaamno wagon (L-2) with this reasoning:

Xdaamno's post 60, post 77 & post 78.

considering VP Baltar had just gotten done saying that the Xd wagon was unlikely to hit scum. Why wasn't that mentioned?

Since when is it mandatory for me to post my reads by page 4? How does that even make me scummy in your eyes? Also, I think it is funny that you say I had no reaction to Howard's crappy reasoning for voting Xd when I voted him IN THE VERY NEXT POST.

That was quite awhile ago, so I can't say for certain how much his Xd vote influenced my vote on him, but I can say with certainty that it would have at least been somewhat of a factor.

I want to take a side note here because I think it's crucial to point out that Howard felt the need to intervene in Post 96 when I questioned Qooq's town read on Vi. I thought it was strange at that time, but now that we have seen Howard flip scum it does kind of make sense for an inexperienced-scum to jump in like that if someone is cutting down town reads on his partner. I don't see any real reason for a townie to intervene like that, however.

*VP Baltar's question in 81 inviting the people who had not posted yet to talk about the Xdaamno wagon was functionally useless. (Think about it.)
*I'm not sure what the purpose of VP Baltar's questions to Xd on Page 3 was.

So because you don't know what the purpose of

my

questioning is, I'm scum? I'll be sure to send you an updated checklist next time.

The (unstated) reason for VP Baltar's vote was that HowardRoark didn't know that Qooq and me have never played together before, and was arguing against VP Baltar questioning Qooq's Town read on me by bringing up a possible meta between us from past experience.
But... that's not necessarily scummy, or at least not to the point of warranting a vote over Qooq. (If anything it would imply that Qooq (Sotty7) and HR are scum together.) Yet that was AFAIK the only time VP Baltar suggested that Qooq could be scum, but HowardRoark never left VPB's scumdar. I would suggest that this is early-game distancing.

Yeah, not scummy unless he's your scum buddy. Why would he as town step in there to defend someone else's town read on you--not to mention that it was on false grounds considering you two hadn't actually played together at all. It didn't warrant a vote on Qooq because Qooq wasn't the one who said that she saw you as town based on your past experiences together, howard did.

I don't see how that's "early-game distancing" either when I had to fight tooth and nail just to get him to L-2 or whatever he was at before you guys derailed it with the Cat wagon.

*(101) VP Baltar says he would never call someone Town on Page 4. From what I know of VP Baltar, I don't believe it (or at least I don't believe he would make such a sweeping statement).

eh, perhaps I would call someone town that early, but certainly not in any really serious way unless I had VERY extensive meta with the person. I can think of only a handful of people who fall into that category. And I do make sweeping statements all the time. They get much better reactions than just saying 'I believe X, but Y and Z could also be true'.

*(121, 129) Izzy calls VP Baltar on a "slip". I'm not sure if the slip is any good, but notice that the only one questioning it is HowardRoark-scum. Twice.

lol, that's not even true. Several people in the game called Izzy's attack on me over the slip poor, including you.

The major difference between Sotty and VP Baltar today is proactivity. Compare for instance Sotty7 858 - where she states clearly what her reads are and asks the mod about the pressing question of the Day - with anything VP Baltar has done today, which has mostly been chilling out asking for/letting people do work for him - in every post. If you really think 880 was made by someone who's interested in finding scum, you're off your rocking chair.

This is a pretty clear piggyback off of Sotty's questioning if I was going to do anything today. The thing that Vi, if she's scum today, is to sway Sotty or I because she can't win with fitz alone. I think Vi saw Sotty's question as a kind of attack she could agree with and use as an in, when in reality Sotty was sort of prodding me out of observation state (or at least that's what I saw Sotty's question as mainly being poised to do).


I find it amusing that Vi clears Sotty for pushing the HR case Day 2, and seems to be implying that I wasn't. Seriously, look at my iso and determine for yourself if I wasn't pushing the Howard case. Saying I was hard bussing him from the start is one thing (albeit ridiculous), but saying I didn't want him lynched is pure lunacy. Hell, even when I went after BloodCovenant later it was largely based on me seeing a connection between he and Howard. I figured if people weren't going to give me Howard (and they were most definitely fighting me tooth and nail on it) then a scum flip out of his most likely buddy BC would give me the momentum I needed to get Howard finished.

I may have been wrong about BC, but I wouldn't have even of needed to go that route if people weren't repeatedly cutting down my attacks before Sotty came in and gave me some assistance.

---

Vi's case full of factual errors basically confirms my read from yesterday that she's highly likely as the last scum. I will look over Sotty one more time to be sure, but every time I've iso'ed her in this game she looks very town to me (and Sotty does fall into that select category of people I feel I can read with very high accuracy).

[VP Baltar]

Sorry about the mas

tin

sive post.

[Sotty7]

I am having a

really

hard time buying VPscum. I re-read day one and see him pushing on HR for pretty much the whole day. He does jump off wagon with JD, Otto and Cat votes but always finds a way back to HR apart from the day ending lynch of course. There is bussing and then there is bussing in a game with one partner and the possibility of lots of power roles, I just can't swallow that pill. It makes no sense for VPscum to do that. His pressure wasn't weak either he only seems to jump off HR when no one else wants to wagon with him.

I also feel pretty icky about Vi backing away from the comments made in post 871 once I caught her out. The explanation she gave just rubbed me the wrong way. Admitting she was wrong but with maximum damage control.

Well, first thing: I was working in isolation during 885. Being called scummy for asking too many questions is a favorite nontell pushed on me, so my first reaction was to deny it and move on.
Looking at the vote and the surrounding circumstances again, I can sort of understand where VP Baltar-Town may have been coming from with questioning everyone without saying much himself, but at the same time I do feel that it was a bit much at the time. (In other words, the quote from 885 was a mistake. >.> )

That just reads: "I was wrong in saying that but also a little right so it's not so bad" You can't have it both ways.

Vote: Vi

Part process of elimination, part scummy actions on Vi's end. Fitz is all but mod confirmed and VP is town to me. It has to be Vi.

[havingfitz]

Sorry about the mas

tin

sive post.

I thought your post was very well written. I don't have time atm but I want to read it again and mull it over a bit after which I will place a vote.

What is keeping you from placing a vote?

[VP Baltar]

What is keeping you from placing a vote?

I want to double check my read on Sotty to be certain, which may involve rereading the game from after she replaced in. I will get it done at some point today (have a bit of work to finish up this morning) and then I'll probably be voting one way or the other.

[tubby216]

*************************vote count***********************

VPBalter

1(L-2) ~Vi

Vi

1(L-2) ~Scotty7

[havingfitz]

What is keeping you from placing a vote?

I want to double check my read on Sotty to be certain, which may involve rereading the game from after she replaced in. I will get it done at some point today (have a bit of work to finish up this morning) and then I'll probably be voting one way or the other.

Yeah..by no means have I ruled her out....we're just to the point where there is only one vote left and she is not the highest on my list of suspicions. She certainly played well when she replaced in a scum in my last game with...have a look:

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... c&&start=0

[VP Baltar]

lol, trust me, I've been scum with Sotty before and she can be quite tricksy when she needs to be. But I agree with you that she just doesn't look very scummy here.

Of course, we also have no rush to lynch and Vi is away on the weekend. Killing her without giving her a chance to respond seems a bit of a low blow....though if she is highly likely to be the last scum there isn't much of a point in waiting.

Finished my work for the morning, so once I get my shopping done I'll be getting to Sotty.