926 A Game of Thrones Mafia - Over.

[Kinetic]

My main theory revolving around the name claim was to try and pinpoint more precisely the timeline for which this game takes place.

We know that it can take place anywhere between the murder of Robert in AGoT to the murder of Eddard "Ned" Stark, also in AGoT.

Because of this I was trying to see if there were, first, characters that didn't fit into this time period (either weren't introduced or mentioned) or more specifically were not in King's Landing at the time.

I haven't had time to analyze all of the results yet to see who fits where, but so far it seems that for the most part this seems to play out.

Notable exceptions are as follows:

Coldhands was not introduced until AFTER this period of time.

Renly, Theon, Tarly, Snow, and Cassel were not present at all at King's Landing during this time period (which according to the fluff is where we are).

Of the remaining roles, (Arya, Catelyn, Robb, Sansa, Sandor, and Tyrion), two were "allied" with the Lannisters while the other 4 were Starks. Additionally if we nail down the time period Catelyn Stark may not have been at King's Landing either.

As it stands from this quick analysis my original ideas were not completely right, but that doesn't mean we didn't gain a lot of information from this list, not the least of which is that everyone is cemented in their claims.

If I had to make rough guesses right now on who was scum based solely on set up, I'd make these assumptions:

At least one of {Sansa, Robb, Catelyn, or Arya} is most likely scum

At least one of {Sandor, Tyrion} or {Snow, Tarly, Coldhands} is most likely scum (but I put these together since I think each is mutually exclusive due to their locations).

At least one of {Theon, Cassel, Renly} is most likely scum.

This is all assuming 3-5 scum in the setup, with either a mixture of one mafia group and a SK and/or Survivor, or two mafia groups and either a SK or Survivor.

I'm voting for Helio (Tyrion) more for his play than for his role, although I could see his role going either way, but at the same time I think one of the two "scummiest" name claims is possibly town or town-like. Tyrion and Sandor could very conceivably be part of the "good guys", but neither were such during this point in the timeline, so it could be a double-bluff.

I think at least one of the Starks is a fake claim if only because there are so many of them (4) and they're the largest single grouping of characters. The only one that I see that is missing from this game is Bran. I suppose you could also include several other names in that list, and I'm reasonably sure that there is likely at least 2 scum among the four Starks, and everyone tied directly to the Starks (this would include Cassel, Snow, Theon and on the off chance Coldhands if we believe the theory he is Benjen [Which I don't put any personal faith in]), which would be 2 out of 7-8 players.

In the end these numbers aren't very useful now, but by forcing players to pick their sides now they can't change their minds as play commences and puts them in very tight positions.

I'll be going over more as I see it and giving more analysis. As it stands I feel relatively strong enough in my vote for helio, especially given the time constraints right now, but I'm willing to vote elsewhere to ensure a lynch.

[Faraday]

Vote Count 1.9: The

'Valar Morghulis'

' votecount.

Bogre (1) - [The Inquisition]
TheButtonMen (3) [Mina, MacavityLock, Raivann]
Seacore (2) [Locke Lamora, xvart]
Heilograph (2) [Seacore, Kinetic]

Not voting:

(5) [Heliograph, TheButtonMen, Bogre, Miserable At Best]


With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
Deadline: March 3rd @ 6pm GMT and you need a full majority to lynch.

Inquisition and Xvart are on V/la. Kinetic's V/La is noted too.

[Seacore]

@Macavity
I do assume scum may have lied. My assumption that I refer to is that 'actual' names reflect guilt/innoncence. Thus they would either need to lie, or hope that we don't find their names guilty.

Secondly, I don't think there's an SK in the game, but that's what sprung to mind when I saw Theon.

[Seacore]

On the assumption that Ben Stark = Coldhands, which I vaguely remember, but I'm not up to that part in my reread,

This means that we have only one character that doesn't have noble blood. Ser Rodrick.

To me, Coldhands also stands out. As the only character not in the first book (unless you consider the fact that Benjen was in the first book, but still)

@Kinetic, I don't really follow your "at least one of these is scum" groups. I also think you're pushing it as far as a 'location' for these events. We've got name claims from the wall to kingslanding with several locations in between. Not to mention that 'Valar Morghulis' (the latest vote count flavour) isn't mentioned until Clash of Kings.

Also, Macavity not referring to me by 'your grace' is noted. But then again, Greyjoys always have been uncivilised.


Anyway, all this is besides the point. We don't have time with all these V/LAs to really run a constructive name claim attack. So lets just kill Heilo, he's contributed absolutely nothing except delays.

More Heilo votes please.

[Mina]

Wow, that...was not at all what I was expecting. :wideyes:

That's some hardcore analysis, Kinetic.

I won't say just what my assumptions had been about the names (for very obvious reasons), but it seems like a rather eclectic collection. There are all the Starks--but no Bran--and then there are the more random ones like Cassel, Tarly, and Renly. I'm also surprised that a few of the players have evil names like Theon Greyjoy and Sandor Clegane. Meh. I don't feel comfortable scumhunting based on outguessing the mod. To be honest, the long debate over the nameclaim has kind of taken the wind out of my sails. I wanted to pressure a few of the players who've flip-flopped on the claims. But now that there's no time to lynch an original suspect, anyway, I think it's far more constructive to keep my cards close to my chest until tomorrow.

Just to answer a couple of questions from ages ago:

quote="Kinetic"]Judge a player? Back off. I'm merely pointing out that the last time I was really actively in a game was before most of you were on the site. It could be expected that you do not know my meta, but I didn't realize that and thus thought you were just all acting scummy.[/quote]
Okay, sorry about that. Part of why I blew up at you was because I thought you were implying that all the new players were acting scummy because of thei

Mina: are you not more bothered by Raivann's sudden flip? You seemed to accept it as quickly as he made the flip.

I did find it weird. But I thought about the timing of Raivann's flip-flop. After he'd called me "caught scum" for my position on nameclaims, MacavityLock followed with his own vote, and Miserable at Best and Kinetic listed me as top suspects. Scum!Raivann could have easily kept pushing a bandwagon on me. Instead he...decided to drop his case on me and support

my own

. So I take it that he's just the kind of player who likes saying extreme things to provoke reactions.

I could compromise on Heliograph, but I would much prefer a Buttonmen lynch, because at the very least, we'd get information from his flip. Also, note that he FOSed Kinetic for so much as suggesting the idea of nameclaiming...but then changed his mind and started supporting the idea. But Heliograph is an incredibly easy lynch. If we lynch Helio and he flips town, then today has been a complete waste of time. I'd rather we had alternate lynch mobs rather than a quick deadline policy lynch. My stance on chronic lurkers is that we badger the mod into replacing them.

Actually, people, take a stand: Buttonmen or Heliograph?

[Seacore]

Helio has the upside of
a) Being worthless in every game I've seen him in
b) Potentially scummy due to his absolute feet dragging on his turn to claim
c) Being a Lannister, and in my experience, not 'with it' enough to lie. (Although he's Tyrion, so not a bad Lannister)

Buttonmen has the upside of
a) Flipflopping on the name claim issue
b) Being one of the plentiful starks
c) Being lowish on the claim list (potentially a liar, and I agree that likely some starks are liars)

So Heilo removes a definite anti-town player, buttonmen removes a vaguely potential scum.

Can you please explain to me what info we get from Buttonmen's lynch?

[Raivann]

Actually, people, take a stand: Buttonmen or Heliograph?

Lynch Buttonmen, replace Helio.

[Heilograph]

How was I feet dragging on the name claim? I did follow as per the instruction by the dot in a Reasonable amount of time.

[Raivann]

You're still not voting!

[Seacore]

A) You had to ask a question each step of the way

B) You haven't added anything to this game

Give us an opnion! Who do you think is scummy? CONTRIBUTE

[Seacore]

Also, I'll happily switch to Buttonmen and will do so in the next 24 hours.

But Heilo posts just enough words not to get replaced, regardless of the fact that he doesn't say anything. Whereas at least buttonmen is kind of contributing.

So I'd rather us lynch Heilo.

[xvart]

I still feel that Seacore is a strong lynch candidate. His posts have all seemed "eager helpful" in facilitating the name claim and also facilitating the lynch of a lurker. Also lynching him will either credit or discredit (to a degree) Kinetic's theory of location and placement of characters at the time of the story.

re: location and storyline - I have some reservations about the location idea simply because it would seem to follow the story too closely, and then we would be looking for those actually behind the murder in the book, which I find difficult to swallow. Of course, if the scum have fake claims then that is irrelevant anyway.

I think that Seacore is the best lynch today, but to avoid a no lynch I would vote for either TheButtonmen or more reluctantly Heliograph.

xvart.

[Seacore]

Renly would be a terrible person to lynch as he's related (familialy nor thematically) to nobody else in the list. So if you're trying to reason for my lynch that way, that's dumb.

Lynch me because you think I'm scummy, fine. (Although I obviously disagree with your reasons).

I'm so sick of being labelled a scum because I'm "eager helpful". I was trying to move the conversation on. We needed to make a decision whether to name claim or not, and I got us an answer. Was I also arguing for something I thought was in our interest? Yes. But if I was scum, I could have just pushed for a name claim and shut up and let the clock tick down.

As for my pushing the lynch of a lurker, just look at Heilo's last post! He's read enough to know my argument against him, yet doesn't post his own opinion.

[Heilograph]

To answer a : I am sorry i didn't know how a name claim fully worked.. Now I do.
To answer b : I don't really have anything new to add, and I don't want to parrot somones else reasons to explain my idea.

So

vote : no Lynch

[Seacore]

And now he wants a no lynch!

Can you get any scummier???

[Heilograph]

What's and now I want? I never explained I wanted to lynch anyone to begin with, and since I don't see a good choice I rather go no lynch..

[Seacore]

No lynch is never a good idea for town.

We get zero information out of it and then the scum kill somebody tonight and we start day 2 with one good guy less and no information.

It's always better to go with a lynch.
Have a read through these 9 pages and find somebody who you think should die. And then tell us why.

[Seacore]

unvote
vote: buttonmen

Unfortunately, it seems Heilo's just a VI

[Raivann]

A Buttonmen lynch, as opposed to a Helio policy lurker lynch, will provide the town with more info because more players have stated opinions about his posts.

[Mina]

*headdesk*

Faraday...could you

please

replace Heliograph?

Please

? For the sake of my sanity?

Now that my game on another site is over (I was involved in an epic counterclaim battle in a no-flip game, and it absorbed all my Mafia focus), I can concentrate more on this one.

By the way, in my last post, I left off part of my reply to Kinetic. I meant that I thought he was implying everyone looked scummy because we were all n00bs who sucked at Mafia. (Although to be honest...most of the players in this game do look kind of scummy.) Apparently, he meant we looked scummy for not immediately supporting his nameclaim plan, but that's not how it came across.

I agree with Raivann on why ButtonMen will provide us with more information. And the bandwagon on him formed earlier in the game, when there were multiple competing options. Everyone blindly voting for Helio because he's a lurker, on the other hand, tells us nothing.

And of course, ButtonMen STILL hasn't answered the case I made on him two weeks ago. I kind of want to beat my head against a wall at this point.

Besides, I think just having this debate will provide us with information if either Heliograph or Buttonmen ever flip scum. People's true colours show most when under time pressure.

Seacore, why did you suddenly change your mind on Heliograph? You thought Heliograph was no more likely to be scum than anyone else was, and admitted that this was just a policy lynch. So why do you suddenly think that he's just a VI? He's been acting like a VI all game.

Make this a good answer. Because you have two votes on you. You're still a lynch option. You don't want me changing my mind, do you?

[Mina]

Oh, and this kind of takes the bite out of my last paragraph, but...um, happy birthday, Seacore.

[Kinetic]

By the way, in my last post, I left off part of my reply to Kinetic. I meant that I thought he was implying everyone looked scummy because we were all n00bs who sucked at Mafia. (Although to be honest...most of the players in this game do look kind of scummy.) Apparently, he meant we looked scummy for not immediately supporting his nameclaim plan, but that's not how it came across.

Not exactly.

It wasn't support or dissent that made me feel people were scummy, but the fact so many of them thought I was being scummy for bringing it up, when frankly my modus operandi is setup deconstruction.

When I realized that I hadn't played with anyone save MacLock, and that all save Bogre weren't around long enough to at least hear about my play style, it started to make sense and I no longer found it scummy.

[xvart]

I find Seacore's recent move intriguing. When I first saw Helio's "no lynch" vote my first reaction was that of scum, since a no lynch day one is an insane idea. I was considering switching my fallback vote order to Helio then Button instead of the other way around. The fact that Seacore switched his vote off of Helio makes me think that the lynch was becoming too obvious and when/if Helio would flip town upon his lynch Seacore would be the prime candidate. The VI comment makes it so convenient for a switch.

Also, I wasn't trying to setup your lynch based on theme. I think it is pretty clear that I find you scummy outside of your character alliance (both thematically and famially) but we would also get the added bonus of seeing how Kinetic's theory works.

xvart.

[TheButtonmen]

And of course, ButtonMen STILL hasn't answered the case I made on him two weeks ago. I kind of want to beat my head against a wall at this point.

Misrep? You never made a case agianst me.

[Locke Lamora]

Helio's no lynch vote is like something straight out of D1 in a newbie game. Whether that's intentional or not is another thing, but I agree that a Buttonmen lynch gets us more info. I'm also a little confused about Buttonmen trying to direct attention at me rather than Helio. I know I've not been top poster but I don't see his motivation for criticising me more than Helio.

xvart: so you'd still go for a Buttonmen lynch despite Seacore switching his vote from Helio to him?

Buttonmen: I believe Mina is referring to post 32, when she voted you.