Mini 918 - A Hot, Steaming Bowl of Mafia - Game Over!

[sigma]

The town gathers after a restless night, still stunned over the lynching of one of their own. After a quick headcount, you discover that one of you will eat breakfast no more...

Shotty to the Body,

Vanilla Townie

,

has been killed.

---

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

The deadline is March 16th at 7:00 AM (EST)

Vote Count:

Col.Cathart ( 0 )
d3x ( 0 )
RedCoyote ( 0 )
charter ( 0 )
Bio Hazard ( 0 )
Zachrulez ( 0 )
Locke Lamora ( 0 )
No Vote ( 7 )

[Locke Lamora]

Well, that's a WIFOM fest and a half. Scum obviously got bored of saying 'let's lynch Shotty' based on absolutely no case.

CC, any results?

[Col.Cathart]

Charter please claim your role now.

You should know where I'm going with this...

[charter]

I'm a jack of all trades. I protected Cathart night one. I blocked Shotty last night. I assume you tracked me, which is why you're asking. I guess there's really not much I can do, you either believe me or you don't. I can vig or cop tonight, if you guys will let me live until then.

[charter]

There's also things in game that reflect my thinking about my role. The biggest is my flip flop on Hoopla, from thinking she should vig herself, to not caring, since I could just do it myself. I always thought she was anti town, but didn't want to keep pushing it since no one else seemed to think it, and then get myself vigged.

I said I thought Cathart was town, day one, so that's why I protected him.

[d3x]

Vote: Bio Hazard

[Col.Cathart]

Your assumption is correct.

I tracked charter to Shotty last night

.

So you say, you're the JOAT? After chewing this thought a bit, I don't think it's true. I know I'm dangerously close now to attempts on outguessing the mod and setup but it's just how I see things:

It's a 12 players game. So most possible scum number is 3 mafia members. 2 would be harmful for mafia, 4 would be pretty harmful for town. 3 is also pretty standard for Mini games, so I'll assume we have 3 scum in this game for my theory.

3 scum means 9 townies. among them we have Day Vig and JOAT. Now let's assume worst case scenario - they will all miss horribly with their vigs, and town will only mislynch.

After D1:

3 scum - 7 townies (misvig and mislynch)

After N1:

3 scum - 5 townies (another misvig and night kill)

That's a D2 MyLo. LyLo if Day Vig will still be alive at this point and miss again.

That kind of setting just doesn't seem probable to me. Not to mention that Tracker, Day Vig and JOAT is a really powerful town team.

Add to it my gut read on charter (there was a reason I tracked him in the first place), and you have me not really buying this claim.

vote: charter

[Locke Lamora]

So we have a tracker, vig and a JOAT? Already sounding a bit implausible to me.

Charter: what's your motivation for blocking Shotty? Why not investigate or vig him? Also, why protect CC first instead of pursuing your unwavering suspicion of Shotty on N1?

[Locke Lamora]

Simulpost. CC makes some excellent points. That D2 MyLo should never happen in any 12-player game, especially not a normal.

[charter]

So you say, you're the JOAT? After chewing this thought a bit, I don't think it's true. I know I'm dangerously close now to attempts on outguessing the mod and setup but it's just how I see things:

It's a 12 players game. So most possible scum number is 3 mafia members. 2 would be harmful for mafia, 4 would be pretty harmful for town. 3 is also pretty standard for Mini games, so I'll assume we have 3 scum in this game for my theory.

You're already at 0 for 1. Mini's can have 2 or 4 scum. In fact, I was in a mini with 4 scum, a dayvig, and some other powerroles I don't quite remember. Here is the game.
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=11589

3 scum means 9 townies. among them we have Day Vig and JOAT. Now let's assume worst case scenario - they will all miss horribly with their vigs, and town will only mislynch.

After D1:

3 scum - 7 townies (misvig and mislynch)

After N1:

3 scum - 5 townies (another misvig and night kill)

That's a D2 MyLo. LyLo if Day Vig will still be alive at this point and miss again.

0 for 2. This doesn't seem that unusual to me. I've modded a game with a vig, a JOAT, tracker, and other power roles.
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=12168
Town got burned really bad because they tried to play outguess the mod and lost.

What is your "gut read" on me based on? Maybe I can explain. Those examples are just ones I came up with off the top of my head, I can probably find more. You're trying to outguess the mod now, and you're going to lose.

My motivation for blocking Shotty is because I thought he was scum. I didn't vig him because I'm saving that until endgame where it's more powerful. Didn't cop him because I thought I could stop a kill and catch him in one fell swoop, then claim one shot roleblocker so I wouldn't get NKed, but claiming one shot cop would have been my death sentence.

I didn't try and catch Shotty night one because I assumed we would just be lynching him and I wasn't going to waste my role if we were going to lynch him anyway. That's what I do when I think someone is obvscum, I'm not going to waste my role or out myself to get them lynched.

[d3x]

I'm good for a charter lynch today, but everyone needs to weigh in before we string him up.

Before all of that however, can you two give us an idea {summary in your own words} of your flavor? I'd like charter to go first.

[charter]

I don't really have any flavor, just an explanation of my role and win condition.

[d3x]

Fair enough, C.C?

[Locke Lamora]

Charter: I've already pointed out that a Shotty lynch on the back of MIC's flip was a pretty strange idea, so I won't go into that one. I see where you're coming from with the games you pointed out but both of those are different situations to this. I particularly don't agree with you using your modded game as an example, particularly because of the numbers mechanic. In your endgame notes you even admit the JOAT was useless and that the cop was only useful as a confirmer. That's not really the same as a 4-shot JOAT, dayvig and tracker in a game where their actions (apparently) work on anyone.

[d3x]

charter- Also, in the 1st example {sited for 4 Scum}, there are 2 different Mafias. These are clearly differentiated, even in the individual Death Scenes. In our game {while I'm not saying it's

impossible

to have 4 Scum} there is presumably only 1 Mafia. I know this because the flip on MIC says 'Mafia Roleblocker' and has no indication of a faction of Mafia.

If you are standing behind your assertion of 4 Mafia in a Mini, can you link to one that actually fits the scenario here?

[charter]

I'm not using other games to try and prove I can't be scum, since I know it looks bad for me here, and I'll agree, I doubt we have four scum. I'm just trying to show you all that lynching me because I'm a JOAT in a game with a vig and tracker is a really poor idea. Lynching me because I'm scummy (though I don't think I am) is fine. Lynching me because I was tracked going to the dead guy I can tolerate, but I still don't think it's a good idea, obviously. I was just using other games to show that these hard and fast assumptions he has about setups aren't necessarily true, and so if you just blindly assume every game is mostly similar in terms of setup and balance, the games that are different will wreck you.

I was pointing out to Cathart that he wants to lynch me because my role of JOAT "doesn't fit" with how he thinks the game is set up or how he thinks the game should be balanced, which is a dangerous pitfall. I'm just saying that what Cathart thinks is balanced doesn't really matter since he didn't make the setup, and therefore shouldn't base decisions (like lynching me) mostly off setup speculation. Same holds true for everyone else, but I don't think anyone else is really doing it right now.

[d3x]

I'm just saying that what Cathart thinks is balanced doesn't really matter since he didn't make the setup

I agree with this 100%.

[Col.Cathart]

No flavor in my PM as well. Indeed, only role and wincon.

Charter, this speculation is NOT the base of my assumptions. My base is my track result. This speculations + plus my gut read on you (see below) are bonus.

The reason I'm skeptic toward 4 scum or heavy town setup (and 4 scum + two killing townie roles means the town can lose after N1, so that one REALLY shouldn't happen), because with current system of modding newbie games, every game must be at least Thesp approved in terms of flavor and roles. What's more, IIRC Vi was the reviewer of sigma's setup and one of the main tips he/she (I still don't know about this one ) gave in his/her own modding guide for Mini games was 'make sure you don't make a setup in which town can lose on D2' (paraphrase). So I think my doubts ARE justified, but as I said

that's not the main reason in any way.

Main reason is the track result. Point not really debatable.

Also, about my gut feelings: I said in my PM to sigma with my N2 track target message, that something bugs me about your play, because you're not 'charterish' enough in comparison to your play in other games I've seen you. From Commie Mafia or Mayor Mafia, I remember you were really aggressive and relentless all the time. Even when you changed your mind about suspect halfway through, you was already on someone else's back. Correct or not, full throttle all the time. And that was also the case during D1 with Shotty. You were one of my stronger D1 reads, but it all crumbled during D2, when suddenly you went with 'maybe my case is not that strong as I thought', all steam disappeared somewhere, and you couldn't come up with anything more than 'Either Hoopla or Locke is scum' after Hoopla's falseclaim, and simple jump on the wagon after my claim. And now, it's probably the first time I see you in full defense mode, and no counters in anyone else's direction. The closest thing to this is your behavior during the endgame of Mafia Invasion when you were a Godfather.

BTW, while we're at it - if not you, then who? You lost all your suspects now with Shotty's death. Who's scum in your opinion right now?

[Col.Cathart]

Also, I would like to hear something from RC, Bio and Zach. Those last two especially as they are barely participating in this game...

[charter]

Main reason is the track result. Point not really debatable.

I agree, but I'm trying to say that it doesn't make me scum, just really unlucky.

Also, about my gut feelings: I said in my PM to sigma with my N2 track target message, that something bugs me about your play, because you're not 'charterish' enough in comparison to your play in other games I've seen you. From Commie Mafia or Mayor Mafia, I remember you were really aggressive and relentless all the time. Even when you changed your mind about suspect halfway through, you was already on someone else's back. Correct or not, full throttle all the time. And that was also the case during D1 with Shotty. You were one of my stronger D1 reads, but it all crumbled during D2, when suddenly you went with 'maybe my case is not that strong as I thought', all steam disappeared somewhere, and you couldn't come up with anything more than 'Either Hoopla or Locke is scum' after Hoopla's falseclaim, and simple jump on the wagon after my claim.

Ok, I see where you're getting this gut read on me from now, but what you're picking up are my caring tells, not alignment tells. I haven't been very interested in this game, since it's really lurkerish and whatnot, so that's why I haven't been "charterish". All the other games you've seen me in have been high activity and more interesting. I just finished another game where I was scum and I was very "charterish", mini 915. It's just that I was in the zone for that game and this one I'm spaced out. There's others as well.

And now, it's probably the first time I see you in full defense mode, and no counters in anyone else's direction. The closest thing to this is your behavior during the endgame of Mafia Invasion when you were a Godfather.

Of course I'm in defense mode, I check the thread at the start of the day and I see that I got tracked and I know what that means, so I'm trying to diffuse it.

BTW, while we're at it - if not you, then who? You lost all your suspects now with Shotty's death. Who's scum in your opinion right now?

Locke, Zach, RC, or Bio. My top suspect now is Locke. He votes just about everyone but MIC, and he normally tries a new target right after another surge in MIC votes. I also don't like how he just asks Cathart if he got a result first thing today, it seems like he's trying to see if him or his buddy were tracked before he actually does something.

[d3x]

I would like to hear something from RC, Bio and Zach. Those last two especially as they are barely participating in this game...

I've stopped myself from making this post 2 or 3 times. The board's only been open 12 hours. A lot of discussion has taken place already and it seems longer, but that's the truth of the matter. Now, if it gets close to a prod on some of these jokers, I suggest we push the Mod for replacements.

[RedCoyote]

Personally I'd rather see BH's head in the noose right now. I appreciate the Colonel's investigation, and if I had to guess right now, I would probably say charter is more suspect than he is townie.

Nevertheless, BH has no townie excuse for his hammer. The only reason he hammered, which he essentially admitted to, was self-preservation. Bringing out the Tracker was bad, not giving the Vig an opportunity to prove herself was worse. BH had an opportunity to come into the game and contribute, instead he took the easy way out and killed off Hoopla without giving it a second's thought.

[charter]

Oh, I forgot about Bio, he's my top suspect, Locke at number two.

[d3x]

charter- What do you mean you 'forgot about Bio'? He was on your list.

[Bio Hazard]

In hindsight, hammering hoopla was a bad call, and I apologize. And I can see why everyone wants to vote me.

I'll post a little later in the evening because I have to go now, but on first glance, I'm not buying charter's claim.