Mini 925: Umineko No Naku Koro Ni Mafia: GAME OVER!

[RayFrost]

I just thought of something. We've got 2 confirmed townies. Scum (and SK, if there is one) were EXTREMELY stupid not to off me last Night.

Reason I'm confirmed town:

I saw RayFrost target Navy N1. Since CSL is the mafiate who both killed and redirected Navy N1, neither I or RayFrost can be mafia. Also, since we targetted Navy, and not magnus, we also cannot be the SK (assuming there is one).

So Ray and I are confirmed town.

@Ray: I believe you should be given the final position on the massclaim, as you're a confirmed town power role, but you might still be able to CC a scum claim for type.

You forget the possibility of multiple killers targeting the same person.

I am in no way confirmed town. Technically, neither are you, but I'm willing to bet that you are town by virtue of your role being confirmed.

All you know about me is I'm somebody that targeted Navy. I could be a mafioso to an opposite group or a SK, so you can't dismiss me as confirmed town.

[UncertainKitten]

The Eighteenth "happiness of marionette" Vote Count

"<Hello! I am Be-a-to-rii-che!>"

Mod Note: Spoiler 8 in this post, last spoiler.

2. RayFrost (0)
3. StrangerCoug (0)
4. DisCode (0)
5. Snow_Bunny (1)
7. Kairyuu (0)
9. Leech (0)


Not Voting (6): RayFrost, DisCode, Kairyuu, StrangerCoug, Leech, Snow_Bunny

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch
Deadline is in 14 days at 7:00 PM EST, Tuesday, March 23rd, 2010

[Kairyuu]

@Ray: Nope. You're confirmed town. The fact that you're trying to deny it would likely convince me even if it wasn't an absolute.

First, multiple killing groups did NOT target anyone, because a) there would have been multiple kill flavors per death, and b) the kill flavors would likely have changed between N1 and N2, unless you're arguing that there are 3 killing factions and that the same 2 picked the same target 2 Nights in a row.

Second, the mafia are down to a roleblocker, who targetted me N2 (by virtue of my action failing). The ONLY way for this to be you is if the scumgroup was stupid enough to send a kill, a redirect, AND a roleblock to Navy N1. Considering that magnus was in the group, that is HIGHLY unlikely, and only possible if he predicted the exact role I have targetting Navy, and then the owner of said role reacting EXACTLY as I have.

Following from that, because both of us are CONFIRMED to have targetted Navy N1, we could not have targetted magnus. If the person who killed magnus is an SK, that means we CANNOT be that SK. This leaves no question that you and I are town.

[Kairyuu]

As to the idea of multiple mafia groups. I already logically disproved the idea that there are 2 scum factions. If there were, then they COULD NOT be larger than 2 players each, and even that would be a stretch. Considering that we've got 2 dead scum, and both are from the "child abuse mafia" that should have eliminated one of the kill flavors from N1, leaving us with only one kill N2. This did not happen. Therefore, there isn't a second scumgroup, and you are not in it.

[RayFrost]

dude... your logic is confusing me... x.x

I'm like... seriously unable to figure out your thought process.

[RayFrost]

Also, complimentary spoiler.

[RayFrost]

First, multiple killing groups did NOT target anyone, because a) there would have been multiple kill flavors per death, and b) the kill flavors would likely have changed between N1 and N2, unless you're arguing that there are 3 killing factions and that the same 2 picked the same target 2 Nights in a row.

Second, the mafia are down to a roleblocker, who targetted me N2 (by virtue of my action failing). The ONLY way for this to be you is if the scumgroup was stupid enough to send a kill, a redirect, AND a roleblock to Navy N1. Considering that magnus was in the group, that is HIGHLY unlikely, and only possible if he predicted the exact role I have targetting Navy, and then the owner of said role reacting EXACTLY as I have.

Following from that, because both of us are CONFIRMED to have targetted Navy N1, we could not have targetted magnus. If the person who killed magnus is an SK, that means we CANNOT be that SK. This leaves no question that you and I are town.

Okay, I'm going to attempt to prove you wrong here...

1. you dunno if multiple kill flavors would show up, as there are very aggressive kill flavors (i.e. moved to a deadly kakera) that would likely override others.

You argue that one mafia exists only, but there could be two in which we also have a SK, or there is a vig, that aids. (i.e. deadly kakera being mafia, sk/vig being arrow) Two mafia groups

may

end up targeting the same person.

So let's assume that I'm mafia group B.

CSL from mafia group A. redirects the JOAT to themself to avoid any kills or somesuch and also kills the JOAT

Me from mafia group B goes in to kill / RB the JOAT.

Note that I may also have done a RB / kill on the JOAT while doing a RB / kill on somebody else at the same time, depending on the moderator's rules on this.

There is the possibility of a vig having been roleblocked at some point, meaning that the lack of three kills was caused by this (or one of x number of mafia groups being blocked), so your viewpoint is highly skewed and based off of the assumption that

I would have to be in the same mafia

as CSL, which isn't necessarily true.

With two mafia groups, I could be one of x number in the group (likely two, but may be more), which means that my partner could have done the kill, not me. So I'm confirmed not to have killed magnus, but I'm not confirmed to have not been mafia.

Your reasoning is flawed.

[Kairyuu]

Alright. I'll try to simplify it a bit.

Each killing role would likely have its own kill flavor (example: CSL's was "Bitchslapped," which makes sense with his role of Maria's mother).

Because each kill had only ONE kill flavor attached to it, we can infer that each player who died was targetted by only one killing role. From there, it follows that each other player who targetted Navy N1, other than CSL, must have used an action OTHER than a kill. This immediately precludes both you and I from the possibility of being a Serial killer, especially since someone else died that Night, and the only way a Serial killer can be present in this game is if that kill was caused by said role. Of course, the kill need not have been from a serial killer either. It is also possible that a vig killed magnus and Neto. But either way, it was neither you nor I, as evidenced by the fact that I was confirmed to have targetted Navy N1, and I am confirming that you did too.

From there, we also know that there is exactly one member of magnus and CSL's scum faction remaining, and we know that said member is a roleblocker. We know that there is one member remaining because if it was just them, the second kill would have disappeared, and if it was a 4 person scumteam then the balance would not work properly. In addition, we know that the final member is a roleblocker. We know THAT because I was roleblocked N2, which would be the only possible explanation for why I wouldn't be killed.

Now, since we know that the final member is a roleblocker, and I am confirmed to be a watcher, that means I cannot be scum. You could still be scum based on all of this however, but the final piece of evidence points to this not being the case. If you are, in fact, the scum roleblocker, it means that the mafia team targetted Navy with a) the kill, b) a redirect, and c) a roleblock, all on the same Night. The redirect and the roleblock directly contradict each other, so if we assume scum to be playing logically, this would NOT happen. In fact, even if all three scum were completely new to the game, they would likely not make that mistake, because the text of a roleblock ability, by definition, mentions stopping all actions the player can take, and the redirect ability, by definition, needs an ability to go off so that it can be redirected.

Preview edit: There CAN BE ONLY ONE SCUMGROUP. Unless you're arguing that HALF THE TOWN OR MORE was made up of scum at the beginning of the game, there is still a member of magnus and CSL's scumgroup still alive, and if that group contains 3 players, adding a second scumgroup, even if you unbalance them and make it 2 players, DOES NOT WORK. Having 5 scum out of 12 players with no pro-town killing factions is impossible for town to win. UK wouldn't do that to us.

[Kairyuu]

I mean seriously, who would have thought it would be this difficult to convince a player that he's confirmed, when he KNOWS HE'S A TOWN POWER ROLE. Honestly, just accept it already. Let the scum try to pick apart my reasoning. I know I'm right, and you know you're town, so I suggest you just leave it at that.

[Leech]

There is most likely only one mafia group. I killed Cobalt due to his posting habit. After reading over the thread in the night phase he appeared to be active lurking, so I figured I'd use my one kill on him. It was a mistake, obviously, but the more I read over the thread the better the idea appeared. Considering it was a one-off ability I'm comfortable claiming it, especially considering we appear to be mass claiming.

On that note:

Welcome to Umineko No Naku Koro Ni Mafia, Leech. You are Siesta00, Townie No-Scope Vig. You have the following abilities:

Passive Abilities:
You have no passive abilities

Active Abilties:
The King's Sniper: Once per game, at night, if you have not used the ability The King's Scattered Shot, you may target a player. That player will be killed.
The King's Scattered Shot: Once per game, at night, if you have not used the ability The King's Sniper, you may use this ability. A player, randomly selected from players you voted the previous day, will be killed. This ability does not target.

Win Condition (Town): You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated.

[Kairyuu]

That . . . changes things. If your claim is true, that means the scumgroup is gone, and either the SK can roleblock, I drew a really stupid town roleblocker's action, or no one targeted me and the fact that I didn't see anyone target me meant my action failed.

However, the third one is a physical impossibility, since N1 when I targetted Navy, I saw myself target him. Therefore, I must have been blocked, because otherwise I would have seen myself target myself.

Only other explanation is that Leech is lying. Finishing the massclaim is necessary for me to make that judgement.

[RayFrost]

I mean seriously, who would have thought it would be this difficult to convince a player that he's confirmed, when he KNOWS HE'S A TOWN POWER ROLE. Honestly, just accept it already. Let the scum try to pick apart my reasoning. I know I'm right, and you know you're town, so I suggest you just leave it at that.

If I don't like your logic, I'm still going to pick at it. I'd rather people think I'm town

for valid reasoning

, but I concede your point now that you've broken it down more clearly.

[RayFrost]

Also, leech didn't say who should be next to claim.

[Kairyuu]

Also, leech didn't say who should be next to claim.

Pretty sure Coug picked SB. Leech just claimed because he felt like it apparently.

[Leech]

Leech just claimed because he felt like it apparently.

Uh, no. I claimed because there was so much talk about the second kill, that I felt the need to explain what actually happened. Should I seriously have waited while you guys came to all sorts of incorrect conclusions? I saw reason to claim, so I did. Considering we all were going to eventually, I figured that I might as well get mine out there considering there was talk going on about my night ability.

[RayFrost]

Leech just claimed because he felt like it apparently.

Uh, no. I claimed because there was so much talk about the second kill, that I felt the need to explain what actually happened. Should I seriously have waited while you guys came to all sorts of incorrect conclusions? I saw reason to claim, so I did. Considering we all were going to eventually, I figured that I might as well get mine out there considering there was talk going on about my night ability.

This makes sense.

[UncertainKitten]

It has come to my attention that there has been an absolutely unacceptable lack of red text in this game. I mean, its a Umineko game after all!

Lets change that, eh?

I am the voice of truth. These words I speak are true.

There is more than one faction against the town.
Untargettables in this game are not necessarily against the town.

Also, anybody else here remember Tar's Suzumiya Haruhi game?

[Snow_Bunny]

Ok, my time to claim:

"This level of reasoning is possible for Erika Furudo"

Welcome to Umineko No

Na

ku Koro Ni Mafia,

Snow_Bunny

. You are

Erika Furudo, Townie Cop

. You have the following abilities:

Passive Abilities:

The Detective's Arrogance:

Everytime you post a case on another player, you must finish the cased post with the following template: "Just because of <relevent factor in post>, this level of reasoning is possible for <playername>. What do you think, everyone?" The first violation of this post restriction results in a warning. The second violation results in you losing your night action for the night. The third violation results in your modkill. If you have a question about if something is a case, please PM the moderator before posting it. (

A case is: Any defined post where the intent is to convince someone to vote a player.

)

Active Abilties:

Detective's Investigation

: Target a player at night. You will be given target player's affiliation.

(Note: Your sanity is not guaranteed)

Win Condition (Town): You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated.

I was blocked on N1 (maybe by the same ability that made me disappear from the game), and on N2 I found Leech is affiliated with town. So, this, unless sanity issues are present, confirms him (well, at least for me).

Well, if we take into account Kairyuu's reasoning, though not perfect it brings a good points to the table. That means that we can possibly have 4 confirmed townies (possibly, I repeat). Well, at least for me, because: I am confirmed to me, Leech is confirmed to me (I highly doubt sanity issues, and his claim seems consistent with what has happened), Kairyuu (which claim confirmed him) and Ray (following Kairyuu's reasoning). That leaves us with StrangeCoug and Discode

Just because of that, this level of reasoning is possible for Snow_bunny. What do you think, everyone?

[Kairyuu]

So we now have a confirmed SK. The fact that Leech already screwed up my plan means we already knew that, but if he hadn't, that would have actually annoyed me.

@Leech: I understand what you did, and you're probably town because of it, but you obviously weren't aware of what I was attempting to do. I was trying to draw the SK into a vig claim with my "hints" that the owner of the kakera kills could be a vig, since whoever it was killed magnus. If a straight up vig would have claimed, we would have lynched them immediately, because we NEED a kill to disappear today. Of course, with you claimed as you are, that necessity is no longer there, but I hope you realize that you've taken away one of our potential mislynches by shooting (if it was 6-1 instead of 5-1 we would still have 2 available mislynches before lylo. As it stands, we have 1 mislynch, and a No Lynch before a 2-1 lylo. Of course, the hope is to get the SK today with the massclaim, but if we can't, we're in a somewhat worse position due to your shot.

@Ray: Why do I have a sneaking suspicion that you've been trying to hint at your involvement in a second scumgroup? Posting your role PM would be a good idea, because I have a sneaking suspicion you've just claimed scum RB.

[Snow_Bunny]

Ok, my time to claim:

"This level of reasoning is possible for Erika Furudo"

Welcome to Umineko No

Na

ku Koro Ni Mafia,

Snow_Bunny

. You are

Erika Furudo, Townie Cop

. You have the following abilities:

Passive Abilities:

The Detective's Arrogance:

Everytime you post a case on another player, you must finish the cased post with the following template: "Just because of <relevent factor in post>, this level of reasoning is possible for <playername>. What do you think, everyone?" The first violation of this post restriction results in a warning. The second violation results in you losing your night action for the night. The third violation results in your modkill. If you have a question about if something is a case, please PM the moderator before posting it. (

A case is: Any defined post where the intent is to convince someone to vote a player.

)

Active Abilties:

Detective's Investigation

: Target a player at night. You will be given target player's affiliation.

(Note: Your sanity is not guaranteed)

Win Condition (Town): You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated.

I was blocked on N1 (maybe by the same ability that made me disappear from the game), and on N2 I found Leech is affiliated with town. So, this, unless sanity issues are present, confirms him (well, at least for me).

Well, if we take into account Kairyuu's reasoning, though not perfect it brings a good points to the table. That means that we can possibly have 4 confirmed townies (possibly, I repeat). Well, at least for me, because: I am confirmed to me, Leech is confirmed to me (I highly doubt sanity issues, and his claim seems consistent with what has happened), Kairyuu (which claim confirmed him) and Ray (following Kairyuu's reasoning). That leaves us with StrangeCoug and Discode as possible suspects.

Oh, I see the mod just outguessed Kairyuu. Well, that means that we have at least another faction. Hmm... It fits. One is an SK, the other is the remaining scum member Kairyuu is talking about.

You see, RF's rebuttal of Kairyuu's reasoning seemed natural, and I'm inclined to believe that he's town for the moment, as so is Leech. So, we either have one mafioso remaining and one SK, or another scum faction with two members (it is possible, taking into account RF's ideas.)

So, either way, we hit something good:

Vote: Discode

I vote for Discode over SC as he has been rather absent during the game.

Just because of the claims and the available info, this level of reasoning is possible for Snow_bunny. What do you think, everyone?

[Kairyuu]

@Snow: Ray is no longer confirmed. I believe your claim, and I believe Leech's claim. However, your reasoning is flawed. The fact that Leech accounts for the missing N2 kill means that Ray very well might have been scum of a second faction targetting Navy with the roleblock, while HIS partner targetted magnus with a kill. Unless you want to get into SKs that can roleblock.

Also, I think I know why you phased out N1. Note Cobalt's rolename, Townie Phaser. I suspect he acts as a sort of Jailkeeper + temp remover. He likely made you untargettable N1, roleblocked you, and removed you from the game for a Day.

I really wouldn't put RBing SKs past me ^-^. Or really any role .

[Kairyuu]

@UK: Hai, hai. I get it. I'm attempting to logically prove who the scum are though kthx.

But even in a mostly non bastardly game I can't help but make annoying remarks to players . I figure it's fair game when you get into outguess the mod time, ne ? Though, I think I will step back since I'm getting a little too involved IMO

[Snow_Bunny]

@Snow: Ray is no longer confirmed. I believe your claim, and I believe Leech's claim. However, your reasoning is flawed. The fact that Leech accounts for the missing N2 kill means that Ray very well might have been scum of a second faction targetting Navy with the roleblock, while HIS partner targetted magnus with a kill. Unless you want to get into SKs that can roleblock.

Also, I think I know why you phased out N1. Note Cobalt's rolename, Townie Phaser. I suspect he acts as a sort of Jailkeeper + temp remover. He likely made you untargettable N1, roleblocked you, and removed you from the game for a Day.

I really wouldn't put RBing SKs past me ^-^. Or really any role .

That's true. But, tell me, what's the gut feeling you get from reading RF's latests posts (the one rebutting that he's not confirmed)? Barring wifom aside, a scum would have taken that chance to disguise himself as a town.

One way or another, we have scum nailed down.

[UncertainKitten]

DisCode has been prodded

[Kairyuu]

@Snow: Ray is no longer confirmed. I believe your claim, and I believe Leech's claim. However, your reasoning is flawed. The fact that Leech accounts for the missing N2 kill means that Ray very well might have been scum of a second faction targetting Navy with the roleblock, while HIS partner targetted magnus with a kill. Unless you want to get into SKs that can roleblock.

Also, I think I know why you phased out N1. Note Cobalt's rolename, Townie Phaser. I suspect he acts as a sort of Jailkeeper + temp remover. He likely made you untargettable N1, roleblocked you, and removed you from the game for a Day.

I really wouldn't put RBing SKs past me ^-^. Or really any role .

That's true. But, tell me, what's the gut feeling you get from reading RF's latests posts (the one rebutting that he's not confirmed)? Barring wifom aside, a scum would have taken that chance to disguise himself as a town.

One way or another, we have scum nailed down.

The gut feeling is that he told the truth initially, and then after I continued the pressure, "caved" and allowed me to "convince" him that he was confirmed. That may even have been why I was kept alive. He may have RBed me instead of killing me because he knew I knew he had targetted Navy, and I had made it clear I thought the one who did so was a town power role. I'm reserving judgement for now, but unless the massclaim turns up someone easier to prove scum for, I think he's a decent lynch.

@all: I JUST THOUGHT OF SOMETHING! I'm not telling though.