926 A Game of Thrones Mafia - Over.

[Faraday]

Bogre has not picked up his role pm and flutter has not picked up his reminder. I'll pm someone who expressed an interest in replacing in and then go look for a Flutter replacement in 24 hrs (he did express V/la) Deadline will likely be extended to give any replacements a chance to catch up.

[TheButtonmen]

Bogre has not picked up his role pm.

He name claimed but hadn't opened his role pm?!?

[Faraday]

I guess it might have been his prod he didn't pick up either

Yeah, Green for St. Patricks day

[Mina]

Thanks, Faraday. I don't think he'd due for a prod, but could you prod Kinetic too? His utter lack of helpfulness this game is starting to annoy me.

And you know, I'll be very interested in seeing how willing he'll be to follow his master location theory to its logical conclusion.

I'd be thrilled with a deadline extension (as well as replacements for our inactive players). Because again, there was shit I wanted to do today, and I couldn't get any of it done because Bogre, Flutter, and The Inquisition are holding everything up and no one wants to do anything other than sit around and wait until deadline and put him at L-1 because he's the only lynch option.

Seriously. Regardless of his alignment, it looks like Bogre is so useless that he apparently WANTS to be lynched. Do I think Bogre's contradiction on Seacore's scumminess makes absolutely no sense? And do I think he's made several comments that read as scummy? Absolutely. But I'm still getting pissed off. Apparently, he doesn't want to do so much as respond to the case against him, or read it, or find a single player suspicious, or you know, make the teensiest argument that would so much as make us consider the possibility of lynching him tomorrow instead of today.

I have to go now, but I just want to say this:

MacavityLock keeps repeating that refusal to vote is not a scumtell, and we shouldn't take it as one. Now obviously, he cast his vote on Day One, so even if he is scum, then obviously he isn't always afraid to cast his vote. And I'm not convinced by "Here's a game where I didn't commit X scumtell as scum, so all these scumtells I'm making must be a coincidence." You still haven't shown that your refusal to vote even when you have suspects is in character for you as town. But fine. Not voting isn't concrete proof of scumminess.

Except for one thing.

I've said this several times, but maybe I'll say it again, in larger font:

I don't only suspect MacavityLock because of his refusal to vote.

Since fairly early on today, I've become increasingly uneasy about MacavityLock, for a variety of reasons. Because much as I think the weak lurky VI types are often scum (and it's sometimes useful to lynch them on policy), I think it's very easy to fall into the trap of only attacking them while letting the reasonable players slide.

I thought his lack of a vote deserved a poke, because it's behaviour more likely to be associated with scum than town. It was a useful place to apply pressure--and I'm glad I did, because I feel as though I've stumbled on something

very

interesting. But it's not like I'd have thought MacavityLock was a beacon of protown helpfulness if he'd voted Inquisition.

While he's trying to turn this into a theory question of whether we should take reluctance to vote as a scumtell, this is his only defence to the meat of my case on him:

Well, I think I have asked some behavior-based questions, and that I don't think that behavior-based are the only scum tells we should be looking for, especially when we haven't flipped scum so as to make connections.

He doesn't so much as mention my point that he's been safe in his suspects. He doesn't give examples of his behaviour-based questions. (And don't bring up that you pointed out that Buttonmen's FOS was scummy...because Seacore and I had already beat you to the punch.) And what are you talking about, we need connections for behaviour-based scumtells to work? On the contrary, when we don't have links upon which to base our analysis, aren't behaviour-based tells the best we have to go on? Someone can be wishy-washy or reluctant to contribute regardless of who his scumbuddies are.

Lots of posts devoted to proclaiming that not voting is a "surface scumtell," and only an evasive two lines (after I pushed him to respond) to the bulk of my case on him.

And right now, he's withholding his vote for no good reason beyond stubbornness. This is something that could go either way--some scum would cave to pressure and try to appease their attackers, while others (such as myself) might deliberately resist to look more townie. It depends on the skill level of the player. (Although clearly, the fact that he used his refusal to vote in his defence implies that he thought voting might look like caving.) But at this point, his reasons for not voting are crap. Just face it. Your refusal to vote is a distraction. I don't care if "sometimes, in theory, people who don't want to vote aren't always scum, so stop bugging me about it." Why are you being so reluctant to vote when clearly it's causing a problem for us?

I've been around long enough that I know how to modify my meta game to game. I certainly wouldn't say I'm the greatest in this regard, but please don't throw surface tells at me.

Then why are you using your meta to defend yourself?

I agree with this:

If you were town I would think you'd be more interested in concentrating on today's lynch.
Your recent posts you seem more interested in self preservation and you only have 1 vote.

Well, when the 2 people I have open questions to and want to lynch aren't responding, it's kind of a problem for scumhunting: You, until just now, and Inq, who's on V/LA. The other two people I most suspect are Bogre, who's in desperate need of a prodding, and Buttonmen, who I still don't think we can lynch due to his cop claim.

So you think that Raivann's answer to why he chose Kinetic...and your new question about Inquisition's meta (which you didn't bring up until I pointed out that Inq had already answered your question) were so important that you didn't have any more worthwhile contributions to add to the thread? Because regardless of your vote, I haven't seen much serious scumhunting from you.

Some players are easily shaken off when a suspect, rather than improve his play, makes a reasonable defence post that only perfunctorily responds to one or two of the points against him. I'm not one of them.

[Mina]

Buttonmen, can you respond to this:

Agian I'm not a full cop, I wasn't expecting A) people to believe me or B) Helio self destructing.

Huh? But what's the difference between claiming "full cop" and "limited cop"? Either way, you'd save yourself from a lynch. I doubt people who'd say "HOLY SHIT COP UNVOTE UNVOTE" would switch to "HOLY SHIT COP UNVO--wait, he has some kind of vague limitation that he refuses to describe? Never mind. He's useless to us."

And you and Heilograph (I just realized that's how he spelled his name) were pretty much in dead heat all of Day 1. How were you not in danger? You're doing the same thing I accused Bogre of doing--offering convoluted explanations when called on trivial details. Would you have admitted to expecting your lynch if I hadn't called you on it?

That said...

Buttonmen, in case you're really the cop, can I ask you something?

Would there be a way to facilitate your investigation choice--e.g. for the town to pressure a suspect behave in a certain way, under threat of lynch? Or is it completely outside your control--e.g. dependent on night actions or scumteam coordination? (If it's the latter, then obviously don't go into details.) Because I have an idea.

Fix'd ~ Mod

[Mina]

EBWOP: Everything below that first sentence was supposed to be in a [quote="Mina"][/quote] quote pyramid. I fail at BB-code.

[Faraday]

Kinetic has been prodded and I fixed your tags (I think).

Day 2.9 vote-count. The

"

And now it begins," said Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning. He unsheathed Dawn and held it with both hands. The blade was pale as milkglass, alive with light.

"No," Ned said with sadness in his voice. "Now it ends." As they came together in a rush of steel and shadow, he could hear Lyanna screaming. "Eddard!" she called. A storm of rose petals blew across a blood-streaked sky, as blue as the eyes of death.

'

votecount.

Seacore (1) [The Inquisition]
Bogre (4) [Mina, Raivann, Locke Lamora, Seacore]
Flutter (1) [Kinetic]
MacavityLock (1) [TheButtonMen
Not voting: (3) [Bogre, MacavityLock, Flutter,]

Deadline: March 20th @ 6pm GMT (atm)

[The Inquisition]

i'm here. catching up and posting asap.

[Kinetic]

Seriously? Prodded? I posted less than 72 hours ago and I'm working on things right now. I'm trying to keep up and if I'm absolutely needed I'll post more, but right now I'm taking care of other things right now.

[Kinetic]

Bleh, the deadline is the 20th >>. I don't like going into a deadline not knowing much, but I've got to finish the projects I'm working on right now. I'll try to catch up asap.

[Seacore]

I'm still around, but there's nothing to say until Bogre gets replaced and Inq and Flutter start posting.

I'll restate that I can see the case on Mac and agree that it goes further than his not voting, although I still find that to be a scum tell. I don't tend to vote people for a single scum tell, so that shouldn't be too big a problem.

[MacavityLock]

While he's trying to turn this into a theory question of whether we should take reluctance to vote as a scumtell, this is his only defence to the meat of my case on him:

Well, I think I have asked some behavior-based questions, and that I don't think that behavior-based are the only scum tells we should be looking for, especially when we haven't flipped scum so as to make connections.

He doesn't so much as mention my point that he's been safe in his suspects. He doesn't give examples of his behaviour-based questions. (And don't bring up that you pointed out that Buttonmen's FOS was scummy...because Seacore and I had already beat you to the punch.)

My posts are public record, and given that you're so focused on me, I'm assuming that you've read them. Since you don't think I've asked behavior-based questions, any examples I show you won't appease. Still, you asked for them:

Everything I say in regards to the name claim will assume it reflects innocence/guilt. It obviously may not.

Why would you not just assume straight out that scum have fakeclaims if they'd need them?

If so heres my response: I didn't respond cause thats not a case, pointing out I voted for a lurker and FoS'ed Kintetic isn't even anaylsis; in conclusion lolololol @ the case. Hope that helps.

Buttonmen, I pointed this out, but did not phrase it in the form of a question. Formally, why would you place a random vote on Locke when you had an actual suspicion, as shown by the FoS on Kinetic?

Rai, why question The Inquisition specifically to start the day?

I'm kinda suspicious of the players who are voting him [Inq] actually.

Why?

I am thinking a Bogre, Kinetic scumteam.

Why Kinetic?

----

And what are you talking about, we need connections for behaviour-based scumtells to work? On the contrary, when we don't have links upon which to base our analysis, aren't behaviour-based tells the best we have to go on?

I'm not saying they don't work, I'm saying they work far better when we have scumbuddies to work off of. I'd like to be more comprehensive, when I can be.

And right now, he's withholding his vote for no good reason beyond stubbornness. But at this point, his reasons for not voting are crap. Just face it. Your refusal to vote is a distraction. I don't care if "sometimes, in theory, people who don't want to vote aren't always scum, so stop bugging me about it." Why are you being so reluctant to vote when clearly it's causing a problem for us?

I'm withholding my vote because I don't think anyone deserves it at the moment, and I want to hear more from Inq and Bogre, at least. Why is that a crap reason? Also, while it may be causing a problem for you and apparently Seacore, I'm not sure if it's a problem for anybody else. If it's causing you a problem because you can't read me without a vote, then you need to get better at this game. Sometimes, people don't vote.

Also, what would change about your read of me if I put a vote down in this post? Seriously, at this point haven't you already made up your mind about that situation?

I've been around long enough that I know how to modify my meta game to game. I certainly wouldn't say I'm the greatest in this regard, but please don't throw surface tells at me.

Then why are you using your meta to defend yourself?

Because you should be able to see now that I'm a more sophisicated player than you'd need me to be for your simple tell to work.

So you think that Raivann's answer to why he chose Kinetic...and your new question about Inquisition's meta (which you didn't bring up until I pointed out that Inq had already answered your question) were so important that you didn't have any more worthwhile contributions to add to the thread?

It's not that my questions were so important, but no, over the course of waiting, I haven't found anything else that would be worthwhile or pro-town to contribute to the thread.

By the way, did you happen to notice that Bogre's likely to be replaced?

[Faraday]

Percy replaces Bogre.

The deadline will be extended by 4 days to give him a chance to catch up

New deadline: Wednesday 24th March @ 6pm GMT

[Seacore]

Hey Percy!

Now I really hope we're wrong about Bogre, because Percy is a strong player.

Convince us why we shouldn't hang you, Percy.

[Percy]

Hello everyone! Good to see some familiar faces.

Haven't had a chance to read the thread, and it will be ~2 days before I can get a reread finished. So expect a post on the weekend!

[MacavityLock]

@mod

, next Wednesday is the 24th. Please clarify deadline.

Also, welcome Percy!

[Kinetic]

Have some computer access during the next couple hours and I can't work on my other projects so I'm going to try and catch up here.

[Kinetic]

Look at Bogre in iso, my thoughts: Too little information there. Its good that he was replaced, but right now I don't know, other than his lurking and seeming refusal to respond to said pressure (and then being replaced) where his case lies. Likely I'll find it when I look at others.

Looked at MaB and hen Flutter: Still unsure about MaB, and although Flutter seems to have contributed more I'm still unsure. Put this at a high maybe, leaning towards scum. To top it off the name claim doesn't sit well with me, can't think of a "town" character that this person could be, but with the Tyrion flip it doesn't make me real sure we could trust that sort of thing.

Locke: Not much until his conflict with Buttonman (looks like), didn't read Button yet, but he looked OK until then. I wouldn't put him on my scum list yet, but I think he is on my radar.

Not going to read anymore in iso, but reread day 2, with an eye on Bogre's wagon and those involved:

Looking at Bog's Wagon-
Mina: Pressure Vote
Raiv: Lurker Vote
Locke: Votes after Bog responds to his question
Seacore: Bandwagoning Vote

Based on what I can see, if Bog is town I'd expect Seacore to be possible scum, but if he is scum it looks more like Locke could be his partner, based on vote placement, interaction, and the reasons behind their votes.

That being said, Percy has now replaced Bog. A continued pressure vote for more information would be useless until Percy has a chance to catch up. Additionally Bog has not responded since these two additional votes were cast, so we have nothing to analyze there.

I'm going to wait until Percy responds to what is going on, and since we are relatively close to deadline and he is the biggest suspect, I think perhaps we should think about making him claim, unless one of the four on his wagon thinks they want to pull off at this point.

Other notes: Raiv is tweaking my senses, not sure why yet though.
MacLock isn't, I think this may be significant as well.
I keep seeing big posts by Mina, but for some reason my eyes glaze over them with out reading much. That probably isn't a good sign.

-----

[Faraday]

@mod

, next Wednesday is the 24th. Please clarify deadline.

Woops, I meant te 24th. Fixed.

[Percy]

OK guys, it's 1am here and I need to sleep. I am reading, but I couldn't finish it tonight. I have to go to a wedding tomorrow and hence a full post will have to wait until Saturday. Apologies all.

[Faraday]

I've started looking for a replacement for Flutter. If he shows up before one is found he can have his spot back though.
I'm also V/la tomorrow and probably Saturday due to it being my 21st, and well..yeah.

[The Inquisition]

The two M's seem sincere to me. Bogre seems attractive enough for how much he's posted, but it seems silly not to let his replacement get involved.

I think there's a question to be asked about Buttonman. Unless we can figure out a way to confirm him otherwise, we're always going to have a big question about him, and he's never going to get a result. He's either going to be roleblocked, or when the day comes that we lynch their roleblocker, he'll be shot.

So that brings up a question. He's only valuable to us insofar as he draws the roleblock. That may be somewhat valuable, but I think more valuable is lynching hin, finding his alignment, and avoiding outing any power roles senselessly early.

Still, lynching him isn't nearly as valuable as lynching Seacore. Seacore has already claimed VT, so we 99% wouldn't be lynching a power role already, Seacore is scummy as all-get-out, and I think we'll gain some further insight into the game otherwise.

I'm already voting him, but just to make it clearer:

vote: Seacore

He remains our best lynch target; I just hope good sense prevails.

[Mina]

Happy birthday, Faraday! And welcome to the game, Percy.

Look at Bogre in iso, my thoughts: Too little information there. Its good that he was replaced, but right now I don't know, other than his lurking and seeming refusal to respond to said pressure (and then being replaced) where his case lies. Likely I'll find it when I look at others.

There are reasons to vote Bogre beyond his lurking. I mentioned them here and here. (Admittedly, it's more of a Day One case, since Bogre gave us so little to go on. I'm starting to become more suspicious of MacavityLock.) It's true that him being replaced makes his lurking a bit of a nulltell, though.

I'm going to wait until Percy responds to what is going on, and since we are relatively close to deadline and he is the biggest suspect, I think perhaps we should think about making him claim, unless one of the four on his wagon thinks they want to pull off at this point.

I for one am not ready to move my vote from Percy until he gives us a defence. I don't want to let his slot get away with lurking until the pressure dissipates. If his defence doesn't pass muster, then yeah, I'd be okay with forcing a claim soon. Because at this point, I'm fed up of waiting around all day for Bogre's slot to so much as react to the fact that he's at L-2.

But let me put it this way: I'm considering other alternatives for today.

Other notes: Raiv is tweaking my senses, not sure why yet though.
MacLock isn't, I think this may be significant as well.

What conclusion can you draw from the fact that Raivann tweaks your senses and Mac doesn't? Be more specific than "this may be significant."

I keep seeing big posts by Mina, but for some reason my eyes glaze over them with out reading much. That probably isn't a good sign.-----

Gee, thanks.

If anyone finds my posts hard to read, I would appreciate it if they said so, and I can try to be more succinct. This isn't the first time someone's accused me of being longwinded. After all, I'd like to be sure that I'm not wasting my time writing wallposts that no one reads.

But could you at least try to read them and evaluate my scumminess based on their actual content? Because I'm putting a shitload of effort into them.

And finally, in your location analysis, you've been focusing on the Inquisition-MaB/Flutter group. Makes sense, since there should be only two members in it from your POV. But what are your opinions on the other groups? Say, the Mina-Seacore-MacLock group?

[Mina]

The Inquisition, can you answer MacLock's question about trickle claims?

Well. It seems like I struck a nerve.

MacavityLock, why are you losing your temper? I suspect you, sure. And I keep pressing you, because your answers are, frankly, not comforting. But it's not like I've been hounding you all game. I've been questioning/attacking other players today, and my vote is on Percy. There's no need to give me attitude or insult my ability to play the game. I'm neither the first nor the only player to find you scummy now.

I wish you'd show the same passion for scumhunting that you do for defending yourself. Maybe people wouldn't be so "focused" on you if you showed us someone else who looked guiltier than you.

And what are you talking about, we need connections for behaviour-based scumtells to work? On the contrary, when we don't have links upon which to base our analysis, aren't behaviour-based tells the best we have to go on?

I'm not saying they don't work, I'm saying they work far better when we have scumbuddies to work off of. I'd like to be more comprehensive, when I can be.

I have a sinking feeling that you'll turn into a distracting argument about Mafia theory...but fine, I'll bite. How the hell do behaviour-based tells work far better when we have scumbuddies to work off? What kind of tells are we supposed to use before a scum flip?

By the way, did you happen to notice that Bogre's likely to be replaced?

Yep (I even mentioned it in my big post above yours). Your point?

Because you should be able to see now that I'm a more sophisicated player than you'd need me to be for your simple tell to work.

If it's causing you a problem because you can't read me without a vote, then you need to get better at this game. Sometimes, people don't vote.

*sigh*

For the last time...

I don't only suspect MacavityLock because of his refusal to vote.

[MacavityLock]

MacavityLock, why are you losing your temper?

I'm not losing my temper. I'm fine, thanks.

There's no need to give me attitude or insult my ability to play the game.

And I don't want to, but I don't know how else to respond to

Why are you being so reluctant to vote when clearly it's causing a problem for us?

I've said "I don't want to vote" more than once, and that's all I'm interested in saying, so there's not much more I can do to alleviate your "problem".

Also, you didn't answer what would change in your read of me if I did decide to vote.

I have a sinking feeling that you'll turn into a distracting argument about Mafia theory...but fine, I'll bite. How the hell do behaviour-based tells work far better when we have scumbuddies to work off?

Behavior with respect to flipped scum. Did player try to protect, try to distance, etc.?

By the way, I like the way you try to disparage my answer before I even give it. I don't want to distract with mafia theory, and haven't done that this entire game, so why your intro?

What kind of tells are we supposed to use before a scum flip?

If we can ferret it out, knowledge of setup that only scum would have is really useful.

By the way, did you happen to notice that Bogre's likely to be replaced?

Yep (I even mentioned it in my big post above yours). Your point?

My point is that the following came after Faraday announced that he was likely to replace Bogre, and is thus useless, blowhard-y, and feels disingenuous.

Regardless of his alignment, it looks like Bogre is so useless that he apparently WANTS to be lynched.

----

Inq's 546 reads really weak. It feels like he didn't actually read any content that he missed, just saw that Mina and I had a bunch of back and forth. As far as I can tell, he literally addressed nothing that occurred while he was away.

To make it that much more clear: Inq, trickle-claiming examples, please.