Open 209: The Invasion of Liten (Game Over)

[Alduskkel]

The Max-Furry thing is getting ridiculous. There arguments against each other just seem to make them seem scummier to each other. Right now I am of the opinion that Max has a play style that is just different and also that he disagrees on theory with Furry. Example: Max asked about scum partners. Furry disagrees with asking that question. So, Furry puts that down as a scum tell on Max.

Also, I noticed that SPS's case on Max amounts to this:

Gut. Also, his "case" on Alduskkel.

And also that Max doesn't like to put out votes much, which is again a play style difference that's being interpreted as a scum tell.

Seeing one of my scum reads (Max) going after one of my town reads (Alduskkel) warms the cockles of my second heart.

Being wrong isn't a scum tell, if you think that Max attacking a Town read of yours is scummy.

Haylen voting Sniper is like the pot voting for the kettle. It's laughable at best.

The NK speculation is getting us nowhere, like I've said. Furry called it null in 831, but apparently he thinks there's something to it. Is anyone basing their vote primarily on NK speculation? I don't think so. Has it really told us anything? No.

By the way, I recommend checking Sniper in iso every so often to see when his most recent post was. If we can rack up enough prods on him we can get him replaced.

That enough, SFG?

[Furry]

The NK speculation is getting us nowhere, like I've said. Furry called it null in 831, but apparently he thinks there's something to it. Is anyone basing their vote primarily on NK speculation? I don't think so. Has it really told us anything? No.

Max is trying to use NKs to say he is town, im just showing that they can just as well be used to show he is scum. I agree that it is a null tell, but him trying to use them as a town tell for himself IS a scumtell.

[Sniper]

Just checking in...have a good day everyone!

[Max]

I saw what you said and its a WIFOMy way to try and clear yourself claiming "I would of done something else". Depending on the town, killing me could easily of resulted in the extra push needed to cause your lynch. Lets also not forget LC who showed some interest in your lynch DID die. This is basically a null arguement from me in a response to a null defense from you, attempting to show you that it means nothing except an attempt to get something going for you being town.

I repeat, LordChronos could have been lynched. Read him in ISO and you could easily make a case against him, why bother nightkilling when you can lynch him?

Saying "anything that needs to be done so town which I am" would be better then from now on? No need for redundancies when they are not needed.

I'm sure there was something looking into this a while ago, but in general people who refer to their townliness in posts (not the way sniper does, that's more of a claim) are townie. I can't remember when that was done I'll try and find it, alone it's not strong but combined with your general scummy play it can be added.

Yeah, I do that as town and I do that as scum. It has led to a whole lot of success as both factions.

Again, not reassuring on a town perspective. You manipulate the town into doing what you want them to do. I just don't like this "so what" attitude. It's almost treating it as a none issue, manipulating the town is inherently anti-town.

I actually dont know what I was really saying there since it should of been "If Nico is scum LC is his partner". I think I just had a few wires get crossed in my suspicions here since you can see all through late D1 I had Nico-LC as scum together then Max-? as other scum. Put a wrong name down and ran with it.

Okay. Everyone can name slip.

This is me saying I dont think you are partners with Nico... where are you getting that defense-attack?

I also dont really disagree with too many of your suspicions, and scum does have to scumhunt in this setup. I have been in a 8:2:2 open as scum and caught more other scum then town did. What point are you trying to make here?

It was the wrong quote. I'll try and find the other one soon. In effect though I remember a post saying that I'm not scumhunting. I'll find it.

Well I did come out with: I want max lynched, if not him crypto or Nico. I also have come out with: I want Sniper and SPS alive

That isn't A>B>C case that's:
A>B=C>D=E

[Furry]

I saw what you said and its a WIFOMy way to try and clear yourself claiming "I would of done something else". Depending on the town, killing me could easily of resulted in the extra push needed to cause your lynch. Lets also not forget LC who showed some interest in your lynch DID die. This is basically a null arguement from me in a response to a null defense from you, attempting to show you that it means nothing except an attempt to get something going for you being town.

I repeat, LordChronos could have been lynched. Read him in ISO and you could easily make a case against him, why bother nightkilling when you can lynch him?

I cant believe im still arguing a point to try and prove a defense is null.... but.

LC was my main backer in the Max-lynch case. During mid-late day one, Max wagon, Sniper wagon and Nico wagon were the only things with any real backing, and the Max wagon backing was small. Killing the secondary support to the Max wagon cuts its reincarnation strength for day two, leaving Sniper wagon as the one most people will revert to in theory.

Saying "anything that needs to be done so town which I am" would be better then from now on? No need for redundancies when they are not needed.

I'm sure there was something looking into this a while ago, but in general people who refer to their townliness in posts (not the way sniper does, that's more of a claim) are townie. I can't remember when that was done I'll try and find it, alone it's not strong but combined with your general scummy play it can be added.

I still disagree with this, and actually see people constantly calling themselves town as a slight scum tell. its mostly theory though.

Yeah, I do that as town and I do that as scum. It has led to a whole lot of success as both factions.

Again, not reassuring on a town perspective. You manipulate the town into doing what you want them to do. I just don't like this "so what" attitude. It's almost treating it as a none issue, manipulating the town is inherently anti-town.

Its not anti-town if you pull it off right. The best manipulation is when you lead someone to a conclusion you wanted them to come to while they think they did it yourself. Admittedly mine hasnt been that clean this game, but im always going to keep steering people back to where I want them to go.

Well I did come out with: I want max lynched, if not him crypto or Nico. I also have come out with: I want Sniper and SPS alive

That isn't A>B>C case that's:
A>B=C>D=E

Well A>>B=C>>D=E, but yeah. My first pick was far and away while my second two were on such similar ground that which was more readily obtainable at deadline was an easy tiebreaker.

[Alduskkel]

Furry, you're a piss-poor manipulator if you think telling people that you like to manipulate them will allow you to manipulate them.

If that makes sense.

Unless this is some sort of Xanatos Gambit thing (not going to link to TV Tropes... that thing is a time black hole).

[Alduskkel]

Mod: If every single living player (except Sniper) requested his replacement, would you replace him?

[Pulindar]

Anyone else notice Haylen and Sniper vote back to back?

Vote: Haylen

I think that this would only matter in a game where scum could Day Talk. Also, if you're saying this makes me scum as well remember there are four scum but only two teams. Even scum want to scum hunt at this point. I truly don't believe that Haylen is scum. I like Ald's question to the mod though (so far I have not read the game for a couple days, but I did go through posts with bold in them so I saw both of these things)

Replace Sniper

[Furry]

Furry, you're a piss-poor manipulator if you think telling people that you like to manipulate them will allow you to manipulate them.

Just makes me need to be all the more tricksy.

At this point im just more trying to drive a point home then anything else. Regardless of who gets lynched with three significant wagons im loving the ammount of information that stands to be gathered.

[Alduskkel]

Furry, regardless of your read on Sniper, would you like to see him forcibly replaced or not?

[Furry]

Furry, regardless of your read on Sniper, would you like to see him forcibly replaced or not?

I would be fine with him being force replaced, although I still think he will just flake eventually.

[Sniper]

Good evening everyone! I'm on a hot scum read...I'll see what I can find out!

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

SPS because he seems to

know

that Sniper isn't playing a game with me by following my votes.

Or maybe I just don't buy your outlandish theory?

Max, the reason I want you to vote for someone is because I want you to put up a fight. The more struggle you put up before your death, the more info and interactions we have to analyze after you're gone. And the best way to put up a struggle is to push for a competing wagon.
I want to see you fight for your life, Max. I want to see you sweat, scream and bleed all the way to the noose. And the only way you're going to have any chance to survive this day is if you start and push a competing bandwagon.
Make it happen, Max.

So, you are tunneling on me openly... right, how incredibly townie of you.

Vote: Furry

That quote is from Nikanor, which you must have been aware of, but the vote suggests it's from Furry. Scummy.

Regarding Furry's gut read on Sniper: a null tell as far as I'm concerned, as I can't tell whether he's genuine. Does suggest to me that they have different alignments.

Being wrong isn't a scum tell, if you think that Max attacking a Town read of yours is scummy.

I know. I just liked seeing it, since it fit with my narrative.

[Haylen]

it isnt the mods job to make sure a player it contributing. It's only his job to make sure they are posting.

That said. I want him gone >.>

Still V/LA btw.

[Nikanor]

Can we please agree on someone to lynch?
Slaxx, Haylen, I would really like to see those blurbs you've promised.

[Nikanor]

Uhm. Bump?

[Haylen]

Go away. I have 4 lots of flavor to write

[SFG]

Okay, back to game...sorry for my unexpected absence I really have wayyyy too much to do this semester.

Thank you, Ald, that is sufficient content for the moment. I want to go back and do one more type of NK analysis before I figure out where I want to place my vote. Specifically, I am going to analyze the people who are still alive. I'd rather analyze to death that lynch wrong today.

Ald

First thing I noticed, you've FoS'd and/or voted:
Haylen
horrordude0215 (Furry)
Max
Sniper
Me
Slaxx
and Puli
So basically you've FoS'd every living person except for SPS and Nikanor, and no dead person. This is making me ve-ry uneasy about you. Also at the end of Day 1 you wuzzled around carefully not making cases on anyone but being "unhappy" with prime lynch targets. I am not surprised that you are still alive toDay.

Furry

The first thing I think of when I think Furry is "Sniper is town don't lynch him."
Firm belief that Max and crypto are scum. Attempted wagoning on Max. I agree with Max's assessment that if he was trying to kill the greatest threat to his continued existence, he would have killed Furry. The conclusion I draw here is that if Max is scum, Furry is probably his partner. I'm almost convinced that Max is town with a lynch target painted on his ass, which is why he is alive right now.
Furry, what do you have to say about the fact that despite being completely wrong about Nico and crypto, you are still pushing Max?

Haylen

I'm going to guess the reason Haylen is alive is because she has a mislynch target painted on her ass for active lurking.
Thinks that Max, Nico, Sniper, and SPS are scummy, and Nikanor is slightly scummy. That's another reason to leave her alive - so she can take part of mislynches on Max and Sniper.

Max

I'm inclined to believe that Max is town with a mislynch target on his ass. I think his first and extremely controversial post was actually intended to do two things, 1. get the town out of RVS asap (pro-town) and 2. put pressure on four people (also pro-town).
He votes Ald before bowing to the inevitability of Nico/Sniper wagon, but no one is listening to him so he poses no threat.

Nikanor

major backer of the Nico wagon
Additionally suspicious of LC, Haylen, and Sniper
Somehow on Day 2, Max jumps onto his radar from having been mentioned only offhandedly as being scummy on Day 1. Why did you switch from pushing Haylen to pushing Max on Day 2 right as the wagon was forming on Max?

Puli

strongest suspicion is against Sniper
leaning scum on Max and crypto, generally not taking strong stances on anyone but Sniper.
Shown to be easily swayed with the Nico wagon (ISO 46)
Therefore can be generally expected to push for a lynch on Sniper and, failing that, join the wagon on Max.

Me

I was actually surprised that I wasn't nightkilled because a very large number of people have me down as being one of their towniest reads, barring themselves. The only reason I can think that I would have survived is if either 1. scum was aiming for opposing scum or 2. I was chasing the wrong people yesterday.
Acknowledged suspicion of Max and Nico, but willing to give them another Day.
My list of people I was willing to lynch: Max, LC, Nico, Sniper, crypto
Therefore I could have been probably convinced to (mis)lynch Max today (so far as scum knew).

Sniper

vote to replace him.

Most people looking at Sniper would think 1. fat mislynch target 2. easily swayed vote therefore highly useful to scum.

SPS

Max is "#2 suspect"
Also suspicious of Haylen and it's hard for me to glean what his #1 suspect was?
Jumps onto Max at the start of Day 2 and I still haven't seen much justification.

New list of scum suspects: Ald, Furry, Nikanor, SPS
Actually, Ald, you lucky bastard, I was trying to decide whether it would be more productive to vote for you or for Nikanor today and realized I was already voting you. So you get to keep my vote

[Max]

That quote is from Nikanor, which you must have been aware of, but the vote suggests it's from Furry. Scummy.

Eh, no. Why would I vote someone for tunneling? It's the choosing to tunnel that is scummy, and alone tunneling is not a scum tell.

Replace Sniper

I find SFGs post quite good pointing out all logical consistencies. Even own. Ill explained or not explained at all votes.

I think his first and extremely controversial post was actually intended to do two things

I think this is the first person who has actually said the truth

Ald, Furry, Nikanor, SPS

Can I get a prize here as I highlighted SPS as scum yesterday as well as Ald. Furry towards the end of Yesterday and today. Meh, I didn't put Nikanor but after this post I feel uneasy:

Can we please agree on someone to lynch?

The whole way you get information is by players not agreeing. Not by players agreeing.

tl;dr: Lynch Furry over your current candidate. Then we can get to the others tomorrow.

[Furry]

Furry, what do you have to say about the fact that despite being completely wrong about Nico and crypto, you are still pushing Max?

Being wrong on some reads is not going to make me completely turn around a different read.

What is with the turnaournd either way (and the reasoning for it so I can respond to something)? 20 posts ago your read on at least me was different.

[SFG]

Furry the "turnaround" is an exercise that I do during lylo (and I already stated that I considered this to be lylo) to clear my biases and start off completely new. If you look at the other game in which I survived to lylo, I ended up poised to (correctly) vote when I died, after having realized that the person I had been suspicious of for most of the game was actually town. I am becoming increasingly more convinced that my first set of reads is always bs and my second set of reads, after clearing, is always dead-on (this trend was demonstrated in my other game here as well, in which I pegged the scumpair as a backup theory to the person I'd been tunnelling on all game).

So really the only question I have left is, who is scum with who? Right now I'm guessing Furry-Ald and Nikanor-SPS but I could very easily be wrong.

[Furry]

That really is not something I can defend against still...

[SFG]

requesting prod for Slaxx. A little less than 72hrs but I may not be around when his time comes up.

[SFG]

Furry if it makes you feel any better, you are last of the scum reads I would like to lynch because my reads are significantly stronger on Ald and Nik, followed by SPS, followed by you

[Furry]

Furry if it makes you feel any better, you are last of the scum reads I would like to lynch because my reads are significantly stronger on Ald and Nik, followed by SPS, followed by you

*glee*?