Open 193 - Friends and Enemies: It's over!

[Vi]

Or in another sense: How many wagons have you tried to start?

I don't know. Look back in the thread. I'm not saying I've played my best game ever, but categorizing it as nothing but following is a touch simplistic and not really representative of my play. In terms of the average point, yes you're not pointing to a specific wagon, but it's still the same overall message, isn't it?

I can answer that question for you - you started the Vi wagon with the first vote of the game
I'll grant that that point on its own is a touch simplistic, but it doesn't change that it's a dominant theme of your play. And no, it's not the "same overall message".

While I can see where and how you said that earlier, it was certainly easy to miss and rather noncommittal~
If you're referring to tubby's game, rushing LyLo had nothing to do with how we lost that game.

I don't believe it was all that non-committal, especially when no one else was really even talking. It's not like I was feeling out people's opinions on it and seeing what would be a good mislynch. I plainly said, 'My gut says X at the moment, but I definitely want to read and discuss as much as possible today'. Not sure what your issue with that is.

As far as tubby's game, it was certainly not the MAIN issue that we lost that game, but I do think that you guys voted rather quickly and for little reason there. Something to think about.

I think you're embellishing what you said in #164 quite a bit.~
Your reference to tubby's game has gone into ridiculous territory, considering *you were one of the people voting, and *no amount of discussion would have found the scum anyway.

Incidentally, is there anyone you're interested in calling defTown? or would that be spoiling your conclusions?

Hito would probably be my closest call to defTown, though that's kind of strong language. I think his play would be kind of hard to fake as scum. Hito seems like a pretty smart guy, however, so it's not

impossible

that he's pulling the wool over my eyes.

So you don't have any Town reads that are worth much, given that you said you had a "very slightly Town" read on hito (#172)?

I'm reasonably confident in my DDD read at the moment. There are a few things that worry me (the egoism and the Amished vote, as well as the hito vote D3 based on intuition) but the fact remains that he hasn't been pushing Town lynches, which is pretty creditable on its own.

[VP Baltar]

I can answer that question for you - you started the Vi wagon with the first vote of the game

lol

If you really want to be fair about it, I was doing plenty of work on charlatan and ABR Day 1 (not that those turned out well), I actually made a case on Reck Day 2 as opposed to almost everyone else, and I was active with SC (whether you agree with my points or not).

Now, I don't deny that I have been lazy at times in this game, because I have and my general interest in playing mafia atm is quite low, but I'm having flashbacks to this same argument with you in Last Man Standing and I'm not particularly interested in going down that path again.

I think you're embellishing what you said in #164 quite a bit.~

I think you're not reading the thread, considering in iso 166 I say:

I think I will try to do Troll next since if I was committed to DDD scum, my gut says Troll is his most likely partner

It's not banging at the gates for anyone's lynch, but my opinions were plenty clear.

So you don't have any Town reads that are worth much, given that you said you had a "very slightly Town" read on hito (#172)?

How long do you plan to argue semantics? I just very clearly said that hito would be the top of my town reads, why is that not sufficient for you?

I think the fact that you are stating your town reads are so clear in Lylo like this is suspicious given your penchant for being fairly probing normally.

I'm reasonably confident in my DDD read at the moment. There are a few things that worry me (the egoism and the Amished vote, as well as the hito vote D3 based on intuition) but the fact remains that he hasn't been pushing Town lynches, which is pretty creditable on its own.

Do you feel he's been pushing lynches in general in this game?

[Vi]

How long do you plan to argue semantics? I just very clearly said that hito would be the top of my town reads, why is that not sufficient for you?

I think the fact that you are stating your town reads are so clear in Lylo like this is suspicious given your penchant for being fairly probing normally.

Actually, that wasn't intended to be as much of an accusation. I noticed that you're the only person who hasn't stated one

very likely

Town read.
This is true LyLo, so targeting someone other than yourself has a 50/50 chance of hitting scum. If you can (accurately) identify a Townie, that goes up to 2/3. Two, and you can box the scum in with PoE. Obviously, being correct is important, but it should be entirely doable by this point.

As far as being confident goes, I've been confident about hito for a long time for reasons stated multiple times, and I think you're giving him

way

too much credit based on his scum game. While DDD hasn't been my favorite person for a number of reasons also previously stated, the options are either that he's Town or he has been planning from D2 at the latest to let the game go by without him. On the one hand, that sort of plan is entirely within DDD's character. On the other hand, it requires a deliberate plan (not often seen in practice) and the you+Troll box that would result from him being Town is quite plausible.
And again, if I were completely confident, I would have voted already.

I'm curious as to where everyone else went.

Do you feel

[DDD has]

been pushing lynches in general in this game?

No.

[VP Baltar]

Actually, that wasn't intended to be as much of an accusation. I noticed that you're the only person who hasn't stated one very likely Town read.
This is true LyLo, so targeting someone other than yourself has a 50/50 chance of hitting scum. If you can (accurately) identify a Townie, that goes up to 2/3. Two, and you can box the scum in with PoE. Obviously, being correct is important, but it should be entirely doable by this point.

I don't disagree with you that a strong town read or two at this point can all but win this game for us. I guess I just feel a bit burned after tubby's game because I took that route too quickly and it cost us.

As far as hito goes, you could be right that I'm putting my tinfoil hat on a bit too often, but The Mechanism is just really weird to consider coming from town, imo. In the words of Yos2, *shrug*.

I skimmed you last night in iso and I dunno, it's kind of hard for me to buy you as scum this game too. I initially got a very strong town read on you when you started interacting with me re: us being masons in the original incarnation. I just don't see any motivation to do that as scum, but plenty to do it as town. Additionally, your reaction around the hito v. SC era reads as pretty genuine. However, I also got a chance to see the

Never

Scum

as scum during my tenure on the scummies judging committee this year, and it's not impossible that you used inside knowledge to look good in that situation.

I'm still quite bothered by your DDD town-read because I think his play this game actually fits very well with what he is capable as scum. Look how much credit he tried to take for xRx's lynch when in reality he did nothing for it. Look at how he is trying to bolster his towniness based on his voting record. I understand that your hesitation in thinking he would bus reck like that, but also consider Troll's general absence that day. If I was looking at them as a scum team, it looks like a perfect bus in the sense that they did nothing real to push it and yet can claim credit later for being a part of it.

I agree about the absence of everyone else being irritating, especially after being promised opinions.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

I'm curious as to where everyone else went.

I was waiting for the Troll's promised analysis that I thought we were going to get last night.

[Vi]

Actually, that wasn't intended to be as much of an accusation. I noticed that you're the only person who hasn't stated one very likely Town read.
This is true LyLo, so targeting someone other than yourself has a 50/50 chance of hitting scum. If you can (accurately) identify a Townie, that goes up to 2/3. Two, and you can box the scum in with PoE. Obviously, being correct is important, but it should be entirely doable by this point.

I don't disagree with you that a strong town read or two at this point can all but win this game for us. I guess I just feel a bit burned after tubby's game because I took that route too quickly and it cost us.

Once again, we weren't going to find Sotty out anyway.

I was waiting for the Troll's promised analysis that I thought we were going to get last night.

You actually expected it?~

---

I skimmed you last night

The Mechanism is just really weird to consider coming from town,

I'm pretty sure I've already said this before, but THE MECHANISM is precisely what I would expect from Town.
Why would scum offer to be lynched before anyone, never mind someone who turned out to be Town?

I'm still quite bothered by your DDD town-read because I think his play this game actually fits very well with what he is capable as scum. Look how much credit he tried to take for xRx's lynch when in reality he did nothing for it. Look at how he is trying to bolster his towniness based on his voting record. I understand that your hesitation in thinking he would bus reck like that, but also consider Troll's general absence that day. If I was looking at them as a scum team, it looks like a perfect bus in the sense that they did nothing real to push it and yet can claim credit later for being a part of it.

For one, I don't think Troll has ever claimed Town credit for lynching xRx.
For another, I'm not hesitating because DDD was on the scumwagon; I'm hesitating because DDD was

only

on the scumwagon.

I looked into your accusation that DDD didn't do much to help the xRx wagon along, and you're essentially correct.
I'm not entirely sure what DDD was up to in insisting that we should look at the last words of someone he maintained would flip scum. Yes, it's not a bad idea, but the insistence - especially when half of those words incriminated DDD himself - is odd.

[VP Baltar]

You actually expected it?~

I like to believe the best in people. Of course, I'm wrong 90% of the time.

re: skimming - I really wanted to do a full iso, but this week is horrible for me in terms of work. I know that means nothing to MS, but I can really only be making quick posts until Monday or so.

re: The Mechanism - yes, wanting yourself lynched doesn't make sense as scum and I pointed that out in my iso of hito. But the insistance of that really came after The Mechanism. His analysis itself is ridiculously contrived, when if I had been town in his situation I probably would have just assumed SC was scum.

[hitogoroshi]

Okay I feel I have to defend myself a bit here. Yes, I deserve a certain amount of flack for daring to coin a phrase like the mechanism, and yes, looking at Albert's actions is what got me thinking about it and he's obviously not scum. But you said 'If I had been town in your situation I probably would have just assumed SC was scum' and well, I guess it's a good thing you weren't in my situation, because I have zero doubt how this would have ended if D3 had finished with SC and I pointing fingers at each other.

Scum would have liked to chain mislynches on the two of us in either direction. I pointed out this tactic and realized it meant that SC was almost certainly a townie. SC was in a similar position and could see the same things happening. After calling it out in thread and hammering the point home, we at least reached the point where the mislynch of one of us helped to defend the other, instead of accuse. I don't see how any of this is ridiculous. D3 ends with me and SC pointing finger's at each other, and I flip town - would you have lynched anyone BUT SC next?

Also, speaking to Vi and VP about that last game, let's remember we were all town there, and the scum was the polite one sitting in the corner. It's still a little hard to accept that Zorblag's actions against Reck were a bus, but after that initial improbability it's pretty easy to see Zorblag scum.

As for his buddy, it's interesting. VP is the more logical buddy because it seems that the largely passive Zorblag would have a more active partner. But the actions today really make me think VP is town. He's been posting content into a void of a game, and I think if scum were doing that they would be trying a lot more to push a point of view instead of just posting their musings, as VP is here. The interpretation that makes the most sense to me is that VP is a townie, and the scum are basicially waiting for him to strongly suspect a townie so they can agree with him. I know I'm a townie, and I think Vi is a townie - so the fact that no one is saying much when he is suspecting DDD and Zorblag is kinda telling.

[VP Baltar]

I'm curious as to where everyone else went.

I was waiting for the Troll's promised analysis that I thought we were going to get last night.

Why are you doing that exactly?

[Zorblag]

The thing that's making this game tricky for me to figure out at this point is how hitogoroshi went from the position he was in yesterday to the position that he's in today. I don't think that the cases presented against him were particularly trumped up when he got his initial votes on day three and at various points point pretty much everyone had him at the top of their suspect list. I expected to start today with hitogoroshi still getting some suspicion from one or two other players and to use those reactions to try to leverage some better reads on what's actually been going on here but that isn't what happened.

Today, for three different sets of reasons, the rest of you have at this point got hitogoroshi as one of your top two candidates for town. That's a bit of a surprising change, perhaps especially given that it's the opposite of what hitogoroshi laid down as the scum plan yesterday. I believe (and believed yesterday as well) that "The Mechanic" being as dependent as it was on Albert B. Rampage driving it was a stretch that failed to take Albert B. Rampages play into account but get rid of the details and the overall scum route he was describing, planned or not, made pretty reasonable sense if hitogoroshi was town.

If hitogoroshi is town then scum have decided to pass on directly trying to get him lynched after his levels of suspicion yesterday. The pressure is gone. In addition, the last two night kills of Sando and Albert B. Rampage took out the two players most vocal about hitogoroshi still being likely to be scum if SerialClergyman flipped town. Debonair Danny DiPietro has said today that the scum needed to kill masons during those nights and it largely went without comment (hitogoroshi echoed a similar thought about needing to take it into account when explaining why Vi and I are still alive) but that's really not strictly speaking true. All the scum need to win the game is enough mislynches; it doesn't matter whether the masons are still alive or not.

If Albert B. Rampage or Sando would be unkillable as masons but still likely to cast a vote to lynch a town hitogoroshi then scum would have a real reason to consider keeping them alive. I think that everyone in this game should be good enough to put that together though I've been known to overestimate the way people handle these decisions in the past (e.g. Tofu Mafia where Elmo still claims that if he were scum he would have made the same kill Vi did as scum in conversations I've had via PM with him long after the game was over.)

If I assume that scum are competent (which I do) then I've got to assume that they had some idea of what they'd be trying to do to get a mislynch either today or tomorrow. For that to have happened with a town hitogoroshi they had to have had some alternate to hitogoroshi that would be at least in the ballpark for feasibility or they had to be convinced that everyone else would have be swayed by hitogoroshi's play yesterday. It took me a fair amount longer than it should have to figure out what that might be. Most of that has to do with the pace the game's been moving at today (I didn't realize that this was something I needed to investigate too closely until somewhat recently.) I asked if Vi had any particular reason that they should be the last to give their opinions today because I think that everyone should at least consider similar motivations to hold back in a situation like this if they're town. Scum should have a different set of motivations but the result is the sort of game that lead to a deadline that we got here.

If hitogoroshi is town and the scum have decided not to push his mislynch then the easiest path to victory that I can see is for them to both come out and say that he's town now and try to get a mislynch on either of the other two players if they then became the dissenting voice saying that they still thought hitogoroshi was likely to be scum. If both of the other townies were leaning that way then they could still be eased into a hitogoroshi mislynch but this adds a bit more flexibility. If neither of the other players was still aiming for hitogoroshi I assume they'd have some backup plan (and at this point I guess I think that it would be going after me though my inactivity today could just have combined nicely with my play from previous days to make that an opportune way to go on the fly.) For that to work they'd have to have been pretty sure about who the masons were as either Sando or more likely Albert B. Rampage would probably have been tempting candidates for the fall guy position if they weren't masons.

Of course, the other explanation for the position that we're in is that hitogoroshi is scum and his partner isn't going for the bus today but is rather trying to get someone else lynched for the win right away. If that's true then scum are benefiting from two townies who have made a move in suspicions that helps them and we don't have to make the same assumptions about the scum knowing who the masons are. It's WIFOM to bring it up but given the way night kills are treated in today's game at mafia scum hitogoroshi almost certainly had the most to gain from the kills that were made if we take certainty in mason identity on the scum's part out of the equation.

The key then is to take a look at what everyone has done in terms of transitioning their views from hitogoroshi as scum to hitogoroshi as town since the peak of the hitogoroshi suspicion. If hitogoroshi is town then there should be two players who have gone from suspecting him to not suspecting him in a convenient manner. If hitogoroshi is scum then it's just his partner who would be disingenuous (and then just at the second step in the process.)

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

So taking a look at the changes in position on hitogoroshi in order the clear first is Vi who did it back on day three. Vi gave a number of reasons at the time and has been kind enough to summarize them today. So far as I can tell no one else in the game outside of hitogoroshi and SerialClergyman was convinced by them at the time but based on Vi's question to me (why was I still voting for hitogoroshi) there was an expectation that others should be.

I guess that evaluating how genuine Vi is mostly boils down to what you're willing to think Vi will expect scum to do. I'm not that impressed by the apparently mind-changing town tells that Vi was seeing.

I don't think that scum would be any less likely than town to provide new evidence of their scum meta if they didn't think that it matched with what they were doing in the game in which they were sharing. Scum under pressure should be eager to point to confirmed scum play where they weren't acting the same way. Perhaps Vi thinks that they play is similar but that doesn't seem to be likely given what's been said.

I think that the likelihood of scum calling for their own lynch in a situation like the one hitogoroshi was in is a bit more up in the air than either Vi or VP Baltar. If hitogoroshi is scum and felt that he was likely to be the lynch the way things were going (which isn't out of the question at all; momentum for SerialClergyman and hitogoroshi was back and forth a bit) then saying that he'd rather be the lynch as a means to get out of that isn't a terrible plan at all. If things are lost anyhow there's no reason not to try a new approach. My thoughts on the issue run along the lines of what Debonair Danny DiPietro said in Post 1117.

His statement such as, "This is more or less a death sentence for me." really bother me because it's basically a call for people to lynch him for such a statement or completely get off his wagon. I guess it makes most sense for me as scum backed up in a corner where he's lynched quickly and left a mess on the table for the last days or he gets his wagoned as derailed. As town I don't think I'd ever cut such a bargain because I always think I can shift votes off me; the truth is a powerful thing.

I don't think that "The Mechanism" is something that I expect town to come up with. As I said last post I can see a general scum plan involving trying to mislynch both hitogoroshi and SerialClergyman in quick succession but getting to it from Albert B. Rampage's action is way too specific. In the position he was in (under a fair amount of suspicion) I don't see a reason to think that as town he would latch onto one particular chain of events and stake the game on it (with the whole I'm not worried about a mislynch of Albert B. Rampage deal.) My take was much more a last ditch attempt as scum to throw some suspicion back at Albert B. Rampage but I do have to admit that that's colored by the fact that I didn't think Albert B. Rampage was scum and I expect him to do just the sort of attention hopping that hitogoroshi was taking to be scummy when he's town.

I really don't see a reason to think that hitogoroshi wouldn't make the sort of post that he made about the state of the game (and not being worried about being lynched if SerialClergyman came up scum in particular) in 1062. I go back to the idea that if scum senses that they're next in line for the gallows it's absolutely reasonable for them to be willing to offer to put their own neck in and claim they no longer care about their own welfare. At that point in the game (unless it's a LyLo situation) anything they can do to change the overall mood should help them and they really don't have anything to lose.

Basically, Vi seems to be assuming that scum will always fight their own lynch with all the tools that they've got rather than trying to subvert the mood of the game by making a change and being willing to go along with it. I know that as scum that's not true for me. Especially when I've still got a partner left there are going to be times when I'm going to go along with being the lynch in a non-LyLo situation as scum just because I hope that the town will take my apparent sincerity at face value. In fact, that's almost exactly what I ended up trying to do in Vi's latest mini, Mafia Reverberation when the town put the Mighty Orbots hydra in a position where my lynch was almost a given.

Either that or Vi got enough out of hitogoroshi's play this game and in the one scum game that we have to look at to assume that there's enough of a lack of sophistication to warrant making that sort of assumption. I'm actually a bit up in the air on that. On the one hand I do see enough general game awareness on hitogoroshi's part to think that he'd be up to that sort of play in a pressure spot. On the other hand "The Mechanism" and his take on what the scum would have been doing in terms of mason hunting seem less subtle. The trouble is that the places where he's showing a lack of sophistication are pretty much exactly the places where he'd be faking it if he were sophisticated scum. Vi seems somewhat blind to that (though perhaps everyone else has been as well.)

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

VP Baltar and Debonair Danny DiPietro are easier transitions to look at for fairly different reasons. Both of them happened on day five with VP Baltar's being both less extreme and earlier.

Basically VP Baltar still has trouble with "The Mechanism" as well as a fair amount of the earlier play and the interactions with xRECKONERx in particular. He seems to agree with Vi that calling for his own lynch would be a less obvious play (given the effort expended) than trying to get the other major wagon lynched if hitogoroshi was backed into a corner. He also seems to be somewhat swayed by the provided meta.

I've just talked about what I don't like about hitogoroshi's play already so there's no huge reason to go over it again. The difference here is the degree to which the change is made. Where Vi (and Debonair Danny DiPietro though I haven't talked about him yet) have at this point apparently largely written off the idea that hitogoroshi is scum VP Baltar is being much more cautious about his reads. Vi seems to think that's a bad thing but I'm inclined to think it's the way town should be going. There's something to be said for deciding that you don't need to seriously consider one of the players on a given day as scum because the scum are more likely to be found among the others (and everyone this game including myself seems largely to be doing that) but town is much better off if they aren't writing anyone off as obvtown.

Of all the positions that are being taken by the rest of you in the game regarding hitogoroshi VP Baltar's easily feels like the most natural to me.

That leaves Debonair Danny DiPietro. While Vi was apparently convinced earlier than anyone else that hitogoroshi had to be scum Debonair Danny DiPietro's change in opinion seems to have come much later and more abruptly. The only cases that we really got on Day Three from Debonair Danny DiPietro came in Post 1093 and Post 1117. While there are points that I agree were scummy about hitogoroshi's play there definitely isn't any sort of mention of connections to the play of others. Today for the reason Debonair Danny DiPietro has hitogoroshi last on his list of suspects we get Post 1234 which rules out hitogoroshi as scum purely on the grounds of connections without addressing any of the points that Debonair Danny DiPietro found scummy earlier.

Debonair Danny DiPietro was the last player in the game to take a stance on which of SerialClergyman or hitogoroshi was more likely to be scum day three (and apparently those were the two he was looking at if we're to believe what he said in Post 961.) In fact, he was late enough in the process that by the time his vote was cast it's likely that it no longer mattered. At that point I was the only other player voting for hitogoroshi and I don't think that anyone else ever looked at that wagon again. To take that stance that late in the process, to be as apparently uninterested in any other lynches for the day after the Albert B. Rampage silliness and then to abandon it without giving anything other than connections as a reason as quickly as he has today (well, after giving people plenty of time to express their opinions though he's in no way alone in that) is certainly noteworthy.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[VP Baltar]

So, reading the above Zorblag, am I correct in assuming your top picks are DDD and hito?

[Zorblag]

What I'm looking at then in terms of scum teams is most likely one of the following:

hitogoroshi was scum backed into a corner day three and came up with "The Mechanism". Vi as scum partner (who had expressed dislike of hitogoroshi's play but never cast a vote that way) jumps on that as a possible alternative to one of them and moves from SerialClergyman to VP Baltar (though really this is anyone who's not scum in this scenario.)

hitogoroshi was scum backed into a corner day three and came up with "The Mechanism" which targets Albert B. Rampage in particular. Debonair Danny DiPietro who's previous vote had been on Albert B. Rampage but who had avoid committing to the hitogoroshi/SerialClergyman options waits until his vote doesn't matter and then casts it for hitogoroshi saying that he doesn't support the SerialClergyman one.

hitogoroshi was town backed into a corner day three and came up with "The Mechanism" as the only means he could to explain what he saw happening the game. Vi, jumped on this as an opportunity to try to get a lynch on some other townie (there's no move towards suspicion of Debonair Danny DiPietro) while leaving two townies with high levels of suspicion who have claimed not to be masons alive and Debonair Danny DiPietro waits to commit to one of the two till it's fairly clear which way the lynch will go (and conveniently picks hitogoroshi wagon which won't happen at that point.)

If either of the first two pairs are the case then the night kills are likely to be as much protection of hitogoroshi as they are mason hunting. If the last pair is the case then they had to be fairly sure about who the masons were and they had to decide that they were more likely to be able to frame someone else than they were to get the hitogoroshi lynch today.

If Debonair Danny DiPietro and Vi are the scum then it's actually pretty easy to see them knowing who the masons were after the Ojanen kill. VP Baltar and hitogoroshi were reasonably easy to rule out based on their interactions with Ojanen. SerialClergyman and I were probably obvious enough that we were looking for masons that we would be reasonable to rule out (though I like to think that I would have done about the same thing in terms of actions had I actually been a mason I don't expect that the rest of you would have assumed that.) That just leaves Albert B. Rampage and Sando.

If you pair either of the two of them with hitogoroshi it's still fairly easy to see where the scum team might look after day three. Vi and Sando were clearly not mason partners. Debonair Danny DiPietro and Albert B. Rampage were clearly not mason partners. Either scum team would probably just have been considering one major uncertainty when looking at masons. The Debonair Danny DiPietro team would have cleared that up the first night, the Vi team would have cleared it up the second.

I think that of those three the most likely pairings are probably Debonair Danny DiPietro/hitogoroshi, Debonair Danny DiPietro/Vi and then hitogoroshi/Vi.

I don't buy Vi's case for clearing hitogoroshi but it's not unreasonable to think that Vi does. I'm much less convinced by Debonair Danny DiPietro's case on hitogoroshi. I'm torn about how sophisticated a game hitogoroshi should be playing but on the whole I guess I think that he's playing dumb when he's making the posts like the one's at the start of the day when he seems to be assuming that either the scum didn't have any leads on the masons or they had them completely figured out.

@VP Baltar, I see that you've posted while I was posting this. To answer your earlier question to me from a previous post explicitly I think that I'd take a Debonair Danny DiPietro lynch over a Vi lynch at this point. More generally my current lynch preference would be Debonair Danny DiPietro, hitogoroshi, Vi, VP Baltar.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

So I do have to admit that my reads at the end of that last post are somewhat influenced by how people are choosing to approach my play today.

I don't think that it's that valuable for me to repeat the reasons that I suspect someone most of the time. Day one I've got no problem admitting that my reasons for wanting to lynch charlatan came after my vote had been cast. The initial vote was because I needed someplace to cast it and it was my conversation with charlatan after that which convinced me that I'd found a reasonable spot. At the end of that conversation charlatan said that he wasn't interested in discussing it anymore and I took him on his word. I didn't see any reason beyond that to think that he was more likely to be town and so I left my vote there for the rest of the day. As I said towards the end of the day, had I thought there was a good wagon forming on xRECKONERx I would have moved my vote there. As it was I was voting for reasons I was happy enough with for day one.

Day two I should have been around more. I cast my vote for the person I thought was scummiest based on his day one actions at the start of the day and then I didn't see a need to change it. In that case happily I was right about my suspicions.

Day three I was pretty sure that none of hitogoroshi, SerialClergyman or VP Baltar could be masons and I was pretty sure that the scum would have been able to see that as well. Further I thought that there were reasonable cases to be made for both hitogoroshi and SerialClergyman being scum in addition to thinking that VP Baltar was probably town. I made my cases and voted for the stronger one. Everyone else in the town had a decent chance of being a mason so there was no great reason to draw attention to who among them I thought was more likely to be scum. Nothing that happened during the day made me want to change my mind (I did ask both of them questions to see what they were trying to accomplish and failed to see great town motives or planning from either of them) and so I stuck with my vote. When I did drop the hammer on SerialClergyman it was fairly clear that the hitogoroshi lynch I preferred wasn't likely to happen and so I was happy with lynching my second guess for scum.

Debonair Danny DiPietro's listing me near the top of his suspicions isn't out of character with what he's said about me in the past. He's light on opinions on the whole but he did say that if hitogoroshi and SerialClergyman weren't partners I'd be one of the first that he'd be looking at. The "terribad" description of my day three play in particular sticks out. That he joined me in voting for hitogoroshi (but in a much more opportunistic way) and avoided the SerialClergyman wagon but is now trying to make an issue of not having been on town wagons despite thinking that hitogoroshi should be town is a neat move.

hitogoroshi's somewhat fluid opinion of me is cause for some concern. Today I've gone from being unlikely scum due to the timing of my case on xRECKONERx (and apparently that's the only thing to really like about my play) to being a pretty good choice for a lynch if there's not a reason to think that Debonair Danny DiPietro and VP Baltar are scum together. Vi seems to be ruled out because Vi agrees with him and Albert B. Rampage was convinced that Vi was town which aren't reasons that would convince me not to worry about a player but so be it.

Vi, of all the players in the game, has probably been the one cutting me the least slack as we've gone along. The other suspicions today seem a bit more recent but Vi has at least been consistently questioning and prodding since day one. While I might not agree with his conclusions I can see where he's coming from.

VP Baltar thinks that I make a decent partner with Debonair Danny DiPietro based on a bus of xRECKONERx. Given that scum should bus completely if they're going to I can buy town considering that. It also feels like he's been doing the most to actually look at everyone still in the game from as objective a position as possible.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[hitogoroshi]

I wasn't sure how to interpret Zorblag's walls at first because DDD is the most lynchable person right now and so I could see easily see this being a scum-motivated crusade. But the complete silence from DDD changes the tone of things. I know most people don't get as emotionally invested in their games as I do (and are probably better players for it) but even while being burned out on sculling isos and content walls I can't imagine being so apathetic about the day's proceedings as DDD has been without being scum. It's going to take every townie working together to lynch scum, and quite frankly at this stage I can't see DDD being one of those townies.

DDD, if you're a townie, realize that the two of us have to agree with both each other and the other townie and hit a scumbag, and that's kind of a tall order without you here.

[Vi]

Hey hito, what is your response to Troll calling you "sophisticated scum"?

It's going to take every townie working together to lynch scum

This isn't necessarily true.
In practice there is overwhelming pressure to bus if things start to go south. (or maybe that's just me)
Then again, in most games people don't lay their thoughts out as methodically as we have.

---

Day two I should have been around more. I cast my vote for the person I thought was scummiest based on his day one actions at the start of the day and then I didn't see a need to change it. In that case happily I was right about my suspicions.

How many chances did you have to change your vote?

There's something to be said for deciding that you don't need to seriously consider one of the players on a given day as scum because the scum are more likely to be found among the others (and everyone this game including myself seems largely to be doing that) but town is much better off if they aren't writing anyone off as obvtown.

That depends on how strong your Town read is, nya~
There's something to be said for deliberately keeping all of your options open, but eventually you DO have to decide that you're least willing to lynch

someone

(as opposed to "Iunno which of you is scum but this person seems most likely") (unless you're scum, in which case keeping your options open is a great idea). Taking them off the menu is simply acknowledging what you're already thinking. It doesn't necessarily mean you stop looking at them altogether, although I can see how someone could read that into what I'm saying.

Meanwhile, what are you doing with VP Baltar?

[VP Baltar]

Still very busy this weekend and posting mostly to avoid a prod. I'm hoping I can find a few hours today to go back to DDD's reply post to my iso and rehash some things I wanted to say back then. No guarantees it will be today though.

[Zorblag]

@hitogoroshi, why couldn't Debonair Danny DiPietro simply not have had a chance to get to the game since I made my posts? It's not as though there's been a huge explosion of content from anyone since I got my thoughts out there. Speaking from personal experience this game I can say that there are certainly times when I've been away from the game that have nothing at all to do with the game itself. Why assume that couldn't be the case for Debonair Danny DiPietro during this relatively short stretch of time?

@Vi, I certainly could have changed my day two vote when I was looking over the game leading up to my Post 750 but there was no reason for me to make a change then. Past that I was largely too busy to have made any sort of informed vote changes as I wasn't caught up with the thread.

No matter how strong somene's town read on another player might be they shouldn't be written off or we get things like Elmo's play at the end of Tofu Mafia or yellowbunny's play in Newbie Game 749. I've been on both sides of obvtown reads going badly for the town and they're just not worth it. Certainly you don't throw out all the evidence that you've got when you get to a 5 player or 3 player LyLo but especially when there's just one scum left you need to do exactly what you've described and look to see why it is that you're alive in that endgame situation. I had that turn out well for me recently in Newbie Game 871 where Patrick, despite seeming much more obviously the town member with me in LyLo ended up being the scum.

At this point though, given the fact that even if my read is wrong he can't be the only scum left in the game, I think that the chances of VP Baltar being scum are low enough based on everything that I've seen from his play that it's not worth worrying about him just now. As you say there does need to be some narrowing down of people that you're willing to lynch. I'm not sure quite what you're getting at with being willing to lynch someone vs. saying that you're not sure who scum is but that one person needs to be the most likely. Town clearly have to do the first if they've got any chance of scum getting lynched. They should also clearly be doing the second as the way to get to the first.

Do you think that having two of the other players off the table rather than one is the better move for the townies? Do you think that I (or others) have done too little to eliminate options or take a stance on how likely everyone else is to be scum?

Also, on an unrelated note, do you have any reaction to hitogoroshi having finished Mini 922 as scum and not bringing that to our attention in the thread quickly as a means to double the scum meta we would have to work with for him? Personally I don't think it's relevant on it's own; I've glanced at the game and I don't think that his play there is particularly similar to his play here and I don't think that sort of reporting is valuable as an alignment tell anyhow but you apparently felt it was a good thing for him to have done with his other game.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Vi]

I certainly could have changed my day two vote when I was looking over the game leading up to my Post 750 but there was no reason for me to make a change then.

Fascinating... You only mention in passing anything xRx had said or done in that post. That was your first post after xRx was dropped off from L-1 through tumultuous drama, etc.

---

When you put it like that I can understand the reasoning behind not shelving anyone. With that said,

As you say there does need to be some narrowing down of people that you're willing to lynch.

...you seem to understand what I'm trying to say.

I'm not sure quite what you're getting at with

not

being willing to lynch someone vs. saying that you're not sure who scum is but that one person needs to be the most likely. Town clearly have to do the first if they've got any chance of scum getting lynched. They should also clearly be doing the second as the way to get to the first.

You would have less trouble if the operative word was thrown in.~

---

Also, on an unrelated note, do you have any reaction to hitogoroshi having finished Mini 922 as scum and not bringing that to our attention in the thread quickly as a means to double the scum meta we would have to work with for him? Personally I don't think it's relevant on it's own; I've glanced at the game and I don't think that his play there is particularly similar to his play here and I don't think that sort of reporting is valuable as an alignment tell anyhow but you apparently felt it was a good thing for him to have done with his other game.

My reaction is to let hito answer that himself, as per my previous post.
I will note that posting the previous game was more impressing IMO because it was his

first scum game

(unless I'm mistaken, I don't think hito plays offsite).

[Zorblag]

@Vi, my vote was on xRECKONERx when I made post 750 which should convey some thoughts about him reasonably well. Had I wanted to say new things about him I would have but there wasn't a huge reason to. Nothing he had done recently changed the reasons that I suspected him. What would you expect me to have said about him there?

I'm not sure quite what you're getting at with

not

being willing to lynch someone vs. saying that you're not sure who scum is but that one person needs to be the most likely. Town clearly have to do the first if they've got any chance of scum getting lynched. They should also clearly be doing the second as the way to get to the first.

You would have less trouble if the operative word was thrown in.~

No, that doesn't particularly help clear things up. You were pretty clearly saying that being willing to lynch someone was directly opposed to saying that you're not sure who scum is but having being willing to give a top suspect (unless this wasn't what you're trying to say here?):

There's something to be said for deliberately keeping all of your options open, but eventually you DO have to decide that you're least willing to lynch

someone

(as opposed to "Iunno which of you is scum but this person seems most likely") (unless you're scum, in which case keeping your options open is a great idea).

You don't seem to have answered my question about whether you think I (or others) have been doing too little to eliminate options or take a stance on how likely everyone is to be scum. I'm getting implications from your posts that you do think that's the case but I'd like to hear who you think is and isn't doing that reasonably as of now.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Vi]

Once again, why am I one of only two people ITT? Deadline is now in six days.

@Vi, my vote was on xRECKONERx when I made post 750 which should convey some thoughts about him reasonably well. Had I wanted to say new things about him I would have but there wasn't a huge reason to. Nothing he had done recently changed the reasons that I suspected him. What would you expect me to have said about him there?

Perhaps why you are still voting him over anyone else? Or at least some affirmation that your vote is where it is for good reason?

I still think you're misreading what I said--

but eventually you DO have to decide that you're least willing

[or most unwilling]

is what I said, as opposed to

but eventually you DO have to decide that you're

at

least willing

--but at this point I think this is turning into a pointless theory argument.

The only person who hasn't done much to eliminate one person from their scenarios is VP Baltar, largely because he's following the same "sophisticated scum" reasoning you're putting out.
That's one of the very first things I noted when I started talking about my own suspicions Today.

[Zorblag]

@Vi, how often do you think that someone on a wagon needs to confirm why they're on the wagon for it to be reasonable? I'm pretty comfortable with the fact that I used Post 750 to talk about why I didn't like the Albert B. Rampage wagon that had popped up, what I thought had changed since I'd had a chance to post last and saying that the xRECKONERx lynch was still the one I thought we should make.

I do see now that I was putting the extra at into what you were saying in the willingness to lynch topic. I can also now see how you're trying to tie it together with the thought that VP Baltar hasn't said that he's ruled anyone completely out of consideration today. Given that understanding I think that you're reaching a bit with the concern that you're giving. I think it's fairly clear that VP Baltar is giving a town read to hitogoroshi and isn't that interested in lynching him now and that not having a strong town read on anyone in the game at this time isn't that unreasonable.

On the whole I like that attitude more than double clearing you seem to have done. I've talked about your stated views on hitogoroshi; I don't agree with parts of your reasoning but I can live with that. I'm still a little less clear on why you think that Debonair Danny DiPietro is town. You've talked with VP Baltar about it some today and as far as I can tell you don't like some of the play but you think that if he was scum he'd have to have been setting up the play that he's been using since day two at the latest.

Why is it that he couldn't be scum mostly coasting through the game with no huge plan outside an xRECKONERx bus and then simply not participating much during days beyond that because it was working? Perhaps I've got the basis for your read wrong but I'm not really seeing all that much you think he's done other than being on the right wagons that makes him seem town to you.

You've talked about my theory that we've got a sophisticated scum team and it seems that you think I'm trying to foist something on the town with it. Do you think that I'm wrong in thinking that the scum are probably fairly sophisticated? We've got a fairly deliberate town town in this game and I really do think that the change in attitude towards hitogoroshi needs to have some planning if it's going to be explained. The only things that make sense to me are that hitogoroshi played a good, sophisticated game as scum day three or he's town and the scum have both set him up as a good candidate for a mislynch as well as not doing anything to pursue that mislynch. I'm happy to hear other explanations but I simply don't see a heavy handed scum team getting to the position we're in as a game now.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[hitogoroshi]

Hey hito, what is your response to Troll calling you "sophisticated scum"?

Apparently I'm easy to read as scum, so there's that. Without trying to sound too much like a jerk, my two scum games were games the town lost more than I won, and I personally I don't think I'm all that good as scum - but neither can I provide specific meta of 'hito derping out as scum.'

This isn't necessarily true.
In practice there is overwhelming pressure to bus if things start to go south. (or maybe that's just me)
Then again, in most games people don't lay their thoughts out as methodically as we have.

I suppose if there's going to be a game with a lylo bus it'd be this one.

@hitogoroshi, why couldn't Debonair Danny DiPietro simply not have had a chance to get to the game since I made my posts? It's not as though there's been a huge explosion of content from anyone since I got my thoughts out there. Speaking from personal experience this game I can say that there are certainly times when I've been away from the game that have nothing at all to do with the game itself. Why assume that couldn't be the case for Debonair Danny DiPietro during this relatively short stretch of time?

Well part of it is simply the idea that he couldn't find a single thing to do besides wait for you. It's also that's he's been away for three days without any V/LA notice or anything of the like. But it's mostly just that DDD really hasn't seemed to care too much about this game, and each quiet minute makes it feel more unlikely to me that he's feeling the same pressure to lynch scum that I am.

Also, on an unrelated note, do you have any reaction to hitogoroshi having finished Mini 922 as scum and not bringing that to our attention in the thread quickly as a means to double the scum meta we would have to work with for him? Personally I don't think it's relevant on it's own; I've glanced at the game and I don't think that his play there is particularly similar to his play here and I don't think that sort of reporting is valuable as an alignment tell anyhow but you apparently felt it was a good thing for him to have done with his other game.

My reaction is to let hito answer that himself, as per my previous post.
I will note that posting the previous game was more impressing IMO because it was his first scum game (unless I'm mistaken, I don't think hito plays offsite).

Yeah, I don't play offsite and I rushed to post that first link because it was my first time ever being scum and I figured you guys would want to see that so you had some idea of what hito-scum had ever looked like. Vi had also mentioned wanting my scum meta in a previous game. I didn't post the second link because I can't imagine anyone here thinking 'Man, if only I had MORE MAFIA to read right now.'

[Zorblag]

@hitogoroshi, I can understand the sentiment regarding Debonair Danny DiPietro. What throws me off was the language you were using. Seeing no way that he could be town given that reaction is strong especially in the context of a game in which we have had multiple stretches where Debonair Danny DiPietro has been absent and that hadn't had the same effect on your position earlier given that this shouldn't be all that unexpected.

Having said that,

@Debonair Danny DiPietro, you do need to get in here and share some thoughts. Using my being a day late on giving analysis as an excuse to hold back on anything yourself with your last post is a fairly weak. If you think that I'm the best candidate for scum then you shouldn't be particularly eager to help me hold up a game by not contributing until I do should you?

Why don't you think that a Vi, hitogoroshi scum team is likely? What was I missing when I listed it as an option?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh